CN111126881A - Engineering cost risk prediction and assessment method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting and evaluating engineering cost risk, which particularly relates to the field of engineering cost and comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps: the construction cost data information of all aspects is arranged, and a construction cost information base is perfected; step two: carrying out risk identification; step four: entering risk evaluation; step five: a risk coping strategy is proposed, and according to the conclusions obtained in the previous steps and in cooperation with the past data information in the information base, a targeted risk countermeasure is proposed; step six: and (5) sorting and summarizing the information. The risk occurring in the engineering cost is judged by adopting the reverse thinking so as to determine the factor causing the project to be infeasible, thereby revealing the risk source of the project, being capable of more quickly searching the hidden risk factor in the whole project, ensuring the accuracy of the prediction of the project, perfecting the risk prediction of the engineering cost and ensuring the project to have higher actual value.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of construction cost, in particular to a method for predicting and evaluating construction cost risk.
Background
The project cost risk means that the whole process of starting project establishment, intermediate bid tendering and final project operation of a project during cost analysis always encounters some unpredictable problems inside or outside, and the problems are called as the project cost risk. Throughout the beginning of the project, each project is managed, and these corresponding administrations are referred to as risk management. Risk management is a high-level, comprehensive management task that requires finding solutions to the uncertain problems that may exist for each project throughout the engineering implementation. China is still in a lagging stage compared with the western countries in the theory of building engineering cost risk management, and compared with the western countries, the research is not deep enough at the beginning of the night. The articles about the construction cost management of the construction project are few, so at the present stage, the construction cost management of the construction project in China is in the starting stage. On the basis of the original situation, China wants to learn, extract essence and remove dregs in western countries, and tries to find a method suitable for building engineering cost risk management in China. Due to the characteristics of large quantity and large scale of construction projects in China, the risk management of the projects is indispensable for smoothly completing the projects. Because the mutual action between the management of the construction cost and the risk management is rarely researched in China, along with the continuous development of China, the research strength needs to be increased, so that the safety of national infrastructure can be ensured, and the further development of economy is promoted.
However, in practical application of a general project cost scheme, because the capacity of project cost personnel is limited, hidden risk factors still exist in the process of project cost risk prediction, and therefore the accuracy of the project cost risk prediction is reduced.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the above defects in the prior art, embodiments of the present invention provide a method for predicting and evaluating a risk of engineering cost, which determines a factor that causes a project to be infeasible by determining a risk occurring in the engineering cost through reverse thinking, so as to reveal a risk source of the project, quickly find a hidden risk factor in the whole project, ensure the accuracy of prediction of the project, perfect the risk prediction of the engineering cost, and enable the risk prediction to have a high actual value.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a project cost risk prediction and evaluation method comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: the construction cost data information of all aspects is arranged, a cost information base is perfected, the data information in the information base comprises the prior related human resource data information, equipment and auxiliary material loss data information and water and electricity consumption data information, wherein the human resource data information mainly depends on the labor efficiency of manpower, and the equipment and auxiliary material loss data information water and electricity consumption data information is used for the working state of the related equipment;
step two: risk identification is carried out, in the process of risk identification, comparison is carried out according to the data information obtained in the step one, the risk occurring in the engineering cost is judged by adopting analytic thinking, so that the factors causing the project to be infeasible are determined, the risk source of the project is disclosed, after the corresponding risk is identified, the risk is decomposed into multi-level risk factors, and the risk is analyzed by using a scenario analysis method;
step three: performing risk estimation, wherein the risk identified in the step two is comprehensively estimated by adopting a measure combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and corresponding estimation is performed according to each risk;
step four: and (3) entering risk evaluation, dividing the risk degree by using related information indexes and evaluation standards on the basis of the risk estimation obtained in the third step, wherein in the process of dividing the risk degree, the risk degree is divided into two different types of standards: one is the evaluation of a single risk factor, and the other is the evaluation of multiple and overall risk factors;
the evaluation of a single risk factor is mainly embodied as the influence of the single risk factor on the engineering project, the key degree of each risk factor on the whole project is displayed, the most key risk factor is found out, in addition, a plurality of risk factors and the whole risk factor are mainly embodied as the influence of a plurality of risk factors on the engineering project, and the relevance among the plurality of risk factors is determined;
step five: a risk coping strategy is proposed, and according to the conclusions obtained in the previous steps and in cooperation with the past data information in the information base, a targeted risk countermeasure is proposed;
step six: and (4) sorting and induction, namely orderly integrating the information sorted in the whole engineering cost risk cloud evaluation process, storing the information into an information base and classifying the information.
In a preferred embodiment, the information in the information base in the first step further includes weather data information, where the weather data information is mainly embodied in high temperature and rainy and snowy weather, and the weather data information is directly hooked with the working state of the project engineering.
In a preferred embodiment, the method for analyzing the risk factors in the second step further includes a flowchart method and a brain storm method, wherein the risk factors need to be collected by an evaluator in the field.
In a preferred embodiment, the parsing thinking in the second step includes a reverse parsing thinking and a forward parsing thinking.
In a preferred embodiment, there are two different types of estimation methods for risk estimation in step three, one of which is a probability estimation method and the other is an influence estimation method.
In a preferred embodiment, the information index and the criterion of evaluation in step four are made according to past information in an information base.
In a preferred embodiment, the risk coping strategy in the step five has the following characteristics: the method mainly comprises the following steps of feasibility, pertinence and economy, wherein the feasibility is mainly reflected in technical, manpower and material resources, the pertinence is mainly reflected in that necessary measures are provided for main risk factors of a specific project, and the economy is mainly reflected in that the cost of avoiding and preventing risk measures is balanced with the loss possibly caused by the risk in risk countermeasure research, and the maximum risk benefit is obtained at the minimum cost.
The invention has the technical effects and advantages that:
1. according to the method, the risk occurring in the engineering cost is judged by adopting reverse thinking, so that the factor causing the project to be infeasible is determined, the risk source of the project is disclosed, the hidden risk factor in the whole project can be found out more quickly, the accuracy of the project prediction is ensured, the risk prediction of the engineering cost is perfected, and the method has higher actual value;
2. the method adopts a mode of combining a single risk factor and a plurality of and integral risk factors, wherein the evaluation of the single risk factor can display the key degree of each risk factor to the whole project, in addition, the plurality of and integral risk factors are mainly embodied as the influence of a plurality of risk factors on the engineering project, and the relevance among the plurality of risk factors is determined, so that the most key risk factor is determined, the construction cost personnel can conveniently deal with the risk factors in a targeted manner, and the practicability of the risk factors is improved.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1:
the invention provides a method for predicting and evaluating engineering cost risk, which comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: the construction cost data information of all aspects is arranged, a construction cost information base is perfected, the data information in the information base comprises the previous related human resource data information, equipment and auxiliary material loss data information and water and electricity consumption data information, wherein the human resource data information mainly depends on the labor efficiency of manpower, the equipment and auxiliary material loss data information and water and electricity consumption data information are used for the working state of the related equipment, and the construction cost information base also comprises meteorological data information, wherein the meteorological data information is mainly embodied in high temperature and rain and snow weather, and the meteorological data information is directly hooked with the working state of the project engineering;
step two: performing risk identification, comparing the data information obtained in the step one in the risk identification process, judging the risk occurring in the engineering cost by adopting a forward analyzing thinking so as to determine factors causing the project to be infeasible, revealing the risk source of the project, decomposing the risk into multi-level risk factors after identifying the corresponding risk, and analyzing the risk factors by utilizing a scenario analysis method, a flow chart method and a brain storm method, wherein the risk factors need to be inspected and collected by an evaluator on the spot;
step three: performing risk estimation, wherein the risks identified in the step two mainly comprise two estimation methods of different types, one is a probability estimation method, the other is an influence estimation method, the risks are comprehensively estimated by adopting a measure combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and corresponding estimation is performed according to each risk;
step four: entering risk evaluation, and on the basis of the risk estimation obtained in the third step, utilizing relevant information indexes and judgment criteria, wherein the information indexes and the judgment criteria are formulated according to the past information in the information base, so as to divide the risk degree, and in the process of dividing the risk degree, the risk degree needs to be divided into two different types of criteria: one is the evaluation of a single risk factor, and the other is the evaluation of multiple and overall risk factors;
the evaluation of a single risk factor is mainly embodied as the influence of the single risk factor on the engineering project, the key degree of each risk factor on the whole project is displayed, the most key risk factor is found out, in addition, a plurality of risk factors and the whole risk factor are mainly embodied as the influence of a plurality of risk factors on the engineering project, and the relevance among the plurality of risk factors is determined;
step five: and (3) providing a risk coping strategy, and according to the conclusions obtained in the previous steps and by matching with the past data information in the information base for comparison, providing a targeted risk countermeasure, wherein the risk coping strategy also has the following characteristics: feasibility, pertinence and economy, wherein the feasibility is mainly embodied in technical, manpower and material resources affirmation, the pertinence is mainly embodied in that necessary measures are provided for main risk factors of a specific project, and the economy is mainly embodied in that cost paid by evading and preventing risk measures is balanced with loss possibly caused by the risk in risk countermeasure research, and the maximum risk benefit is obtained with the minimum cost;
step six: and (4) sorting and induction, namely orderly integrating the information sorted in the whole engineering cost risk cloud evaluation process, storing the information into an information base and classifying the information.
Example 2:
the invention provides a method for predicting and evaluating engineering cost risk, which comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: the construction cost data information of all aspects is arranged, a construction cost information base is perfected, the data information in the information base comprises the previous related human resource data information, equipment and auxiliary material loss data information and water and electricity consumption data information, wherein the human resource data information mainly depends on the labor efficiency of manpower, the equipment and auxiliary material loss data information and water and electricity consumption data information are used for the working state of the related equipment, and the construction cost information base also comprises meteorological data information, wherein the meteorological data information is mainly embodied in high temperature and rain and snow weather, and the meteorological data information is directly hooked with the working state of the project engineering;
step two: performing risk identification, comparing the data information obtained in the step one in the process of performing the risk identification, judging the risk occurring in the engineering cost by adopting reverse thinking so as to determine factors causing the project to be infeasible, revealing the risk source of the project, decomposing the risk into multi-level risk factors after identifying the corresponding risk, and analyzing the risk factors by utilizing a scenario analysis method, a flow chart method and a brain storm method, wherein the risk factors need to be inspected and collected by an evaluator on the spot;
step three: performing risk estimation, wherein the risks identified in the step two mainly comprise two estimation methods of different types, one is a probability estimation method, the other is an influence estimation method, the risks are comprehensively estimated by adopting a measure combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and corresponding estimation is performed according to each risk;
step four: entering risk evaluation, and on the basis of the risk estimation obtained in the third step, utilizing relevant information indexes and judgment criteria, wherein the information indexes and the judgment criteria are formulated according to the past information in the information base, so as to divide the risk degree, and in the process of dividing the risk degree, the risk degree needs to be divided into two different types of criteria: one is the evaluation of a single risk factor, and the other is the evaluation of multiple and overall risk factors;
the evaluation of a single risk factor is mainly embodied as the influence of the single risk factor on the engineering project, the key degree of each risk factor on the whole project is displayed, the most key risk factor is found out, in addition, a plurality of risk factors and the whole risk factor are mainly embodied as the influence of a plurality of risk factors on the engineering project, and the relevance among the plurality of risk factors is determined;
step five: and (3) providing a risk coping strategy, and according to the conclusions obtained in the previous steps and by matching with the past data information in the information base for comparison, providing a targeted risk countermeasure, wherein the risk coping strategy also has the following characteristics: feasibility, pertinence and economy, wherein the feasibility is mainly embodied in technical, manpower and material resources affirmation, the pertinence is mainly embodied in that necessary measures are provided for main risk factors of a specific project, and the economy is mainly embodied in that cost paid by evading and preventing risk measures is balanced with loss possibly caused by the risk in risk countermeasure research, and the maximum risk benefit is obtained with the minimum cost;
step six: and (4) sorting and induction, namely orderly integrating the information sorted in the whole engineering cost risk cloud evaluation process, storing the information into an information base and classifying the information.
The risk cloud evaluation method of the above embodiment 1-2 is used for 40 engineering projects, each 20 engineering projects are used as one group, the risk cloud evaluation methods of the two embodiments are tried in two groups, and after 3 months of use, the following data are obtained:
| number of engineering projects | Number average degree of risk factors | Average degree of predicted risk impact on project engineering | The situation of the construction cost (compared with the ordinary times) | |
| Example 1 | 20 | 35％ | 45％ | Inaccurate cost |
| Example 2 | 20 | 52％ | 39％ | The manufacturing cost is relatively accurate |
As can be seen from the above table, the processing method in embodiment 2 has a good effect, and determines the factors that cause the project to be infeasible by judging the risk occurring in the engineering cost through reverse thinking, so as to reveal the risk source of the project, quickly find out the hidden risk factors in the whole project, ensure the accuracy of the prediction of the project, perfect the risk prediction of the engineering cost, and make it have a high practical value.
And finally: the above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that are within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A project cost risk prediction and assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: the construction cost data information of all aspects is arranged, a cost information base is perfected, the data information in the information base comprises the prior related human resource data information, equipment and auxiliary material loss data information and water and electricity consumption data information, wherein the human resource data information mainly depends on the labor efficiency of manpower, and the equipment and auxiliary material loss data information water and electricity consumption data information is used for the working state of the related equipment;
step two: risk identification is carried out, in the process of risk identification, comparison is carried out according to the data information obtained in the step one, the risk occurring in the engineering cost is judged by adopting analytic thinking, so that the factors causing the project to be infeasible are determined, the risk source of the project is disclosed, after the corresponding risk is identified, the risk is decomposed into multi-level risk factors, and the risk is analyzed by using a scenario analysis method;
step three: performing risk estimation, wherein the risk identified in the step two is comprehensively estimated by adopting a measure combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and corresponding estimation is performed according to each risk;
step four: and (3) entering risk evaluation, dividing the risk degree by using related information indexes and evaluation standards on the basis of the risk estimation obtained in the third step, wherein in the process of dividing the risk degree, the risk degree is divided into two different types of standards: one is the evaluation of a single risk factor, and the other is the evaluation of multiple and overall risk factors;
the evaluation of a single risk factor is mainly embodied as the influence of the single risk factor on the engineering project, the key degree of each risk factor on the whole project is displayed, the most key risk factor is found out, in addition, a plurality of risk factors and the whole risk factor are mainly embodied as the influence of a plurality of risk factors on the engineering project, and the relevance among the plurality of risk factors is determined;
step five: a risk coping strategy is proposed, and according to the conclusions obtained in the previous steps and in cooperation with the past data information in the information base, a targeted risk countermeasure is proposed;
step six: and (4) sorting and induction, namely orderly integrating the information sorted in the whole engineering cost risk cloud evaluation process, storing the information into an information base and classifying the information.
2. The project cost risk prediction and assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the information in the information base in the first step further comprises meteorological data information, wherein the meteorological data information is mainly reflected in high-temperature weather and rainy and snowy weather, and the meteorological data information is directly hooked with the working state of the project engineering.
3. The project cost risk prediction and assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the method for analyzing the risk factors in the second step further comprises a flow chart method and a brain storm method, wherein the risk factors need to be inspected and collected by an evaluator in the field.
4. The project cost risk prediction and assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the analyzing thinking in the second step comprises reverse analyzing thinking and forward analyzing thinking.
5. The project cost risk prediction and assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the risk estimation in the third step mainly comprises two different types of estimation methods, wherein one is a probability estimation method, and the other is an influence estimation method.
6. The project cost risk prediction and assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: and the information index and the criterion evaluation criterion in the fourth step are formulated according to the past information in the information base.
7. The project cost risk prediction and assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the risk coping strategy in the step five has the following characteristics: the method mainly comprises the following steps of feasibility, pertinence and economy, wherein the feasibility is mainly reflected in technical, manpower and material resources, the pertinence is mainly reflected in that necessary measures are provided for main risk factors of a specific project, and the economy is mainly reflected in that the cost of avoiding and preventing risk measures is balanced with the loss possibly caused by the risk in risk countermeasure research, and the maximum risk benefit is obtained at the minimum cost.
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| CN111680922A (en) * | 2020-06-09 | 2020-09-18 | 浙江卓宏建设项目管理有限公司 | Engineering cost risk prediction and assessment method |
| CN111695833A (en) * | 2020-06-22 | 2020-09-22 | 陕西国防工业职业技术学院 | Engineering cost risk prediction and assessment method |
| CN112036726A (en) * | 2020-08-25 | 2020-12-04 | 上海三菱电梯有限公司 | Elevator service quality evaluation method |
| CN113743690A (en) * | 2020-05-27 | 2021-12-03 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | International engineering quotation risk management method |
| CN117114198A (en) * | 2023-09-08 | 2023-11-24 | 江苏东南工程咨询有限公司 | Risk assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium based on engineering project |
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