CN111125877A - Active power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an active power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation, which comprises the following steps: establishing a reliability model of the distributed power supply; establishing a reliability model of the microgrid based on the reliability model of the distributed power supply; based on the reliability model of the microgrid, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation to identify the state of each distributed power supply; dividing the power distribution network into a plurality of areas based on the state of each distributed power supply, and searching the minimum path of a two-layer structure in each area; and evaluating the reliability of the two-layer structure based on the minimum path of the two-layer structure to obtain the reliability index of the two-layer structure. In the embodiment of the invention, the evaluation method has flexibility and practicability, the intermittent and uncertain distributed power supply model is brought into reliability evaluation, a new Monte Carlo simulation method is provided, and the processing speed of the bidirectional power flow caused by the introduction of the microgrid into the active power distribution network is increased.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of electric power, in particular to an active power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation.
Background
With the increasing demand for electricity, the increasing shortage of traditional petrochemical energy and the increasing pollution of the environment, more and more clean renewable energy is utilized and incorporated into the grid in the form of distributed power. The micro-grid consists of local distributed generators, loads, energy storage, protection and control equipment, and when a fault occurs or interference occurs, the micro-grid can be interconnected to a power distribution network and can also be used as an island to operate autonomously. Today's power distribution systems are evolving from traditional passive networks to active and more intelligent power grids with flexible modes of operation, i.e. active power distribution networks.
The active power distribution network is a complex network comprising multiple users and multiple power supplies, multiple active management devices are added, the reliability, the economy and the management method are greatly different from those of the traditional power distribution network, the original reliability evaluation model and algorithm cannot process the uncertain bidirectional power flow caused by the micro-grid, and in addition, the local micro-grid can still maintain operation when the active power distribution network is disconnected with the main power grid.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art, and provides an active power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation.
In order to solve the technical problem, an embodiment of the present invention provides an active power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on monte carlo simulation, where the method includes:
establishing a reliability model of the distributed power supply;
establishing a reliability model of the microgrid based on the reliability model of the distributed power supply;
based on the reliability model of the microgrid, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation to identify the state of each distributed power supply;
dividing the power distribution network into a plurality of areas based on the state of each distributed power supply, and searching the minimum path of a two-layer structure in each area;
and evaluating the reliability of the two-layer structure based on the minimum path of the two-layer structure to obtain the reliability index of the two-layer structure.
Optionally, the establishing a reliability model of the distributed power supply is establishing a distributed power generation multi-state reliability model based on a generalized capacity interruption table, and includes:
discretizing the output power of the distributed power supply based on a fixed step length or variable step length distribution method to generate a plurality of discrete states;
and calculating the probability and the cumulative probability of the plurality of discrete states to generate a generalized capacity interruption table of the distributed power supply.
Optionally, the generalized capacity interruption table of the distributed power supply is:
in the equation, the operating capacity of each discrete state is:
the probability of each discrete state is:
the cumulative probability for each discrete state is:
wherein R is1For the rated output power of the distributed generator, M is a discrete state number, TiFor the duration of each state, T represents the total time.
Optionally, the establishing a reliability model of the microgrid is to establish a reliability model of the microgrid based on a virtual power plant, and includes:
acquiring generalized capacity interruption tables of all distributed power supplies based on the reliability models of the distributed power supplies, and establishing generalized capacity interruption tables of the micro-grid;
establishing a multi-state virtual power plant model based on the generalized capacity interruption table of the micro-grid;
and establishing the reliability model of the micro-grid based on the multi-state virtual power plant model.
Optionally, the identifying, based on the reliability model of the microgrid, the state of each distributed power source by using monte carlo simulation includes:
judging whether the corresponding distributed power supplies are in a use state or not based on the forced outage rates of the distributed power supplies;
and if so, determining the operation capacity of each corresponding distributed power supply based on the generalized capacity interrupt table of each corresponding distributed power supply.
Optionally, the two-layer structure includes a microgrid and an active power distribution network.
Optionally, the dividing the power distribution network into a plurality of regions based on the state of each distributed power source, and the searching for the minimum path of the two-layer structure in each region includes:
dividing the power distribution network into a plurality of areas by utilizing the positions of the circuit breakers and the sectionalizers;
searching a minimum path for each load point in each microgrid aiming at all the microgrids in each area, wherein the minimum path is a path between a local load in each microgrid and each distributed power supply;
and aiming at the active power distribution network in each area, searching a minimum path from each load point to all power nodes in all loads of the active power distribution network.
Optionally, the evaluating the reliability of the two-layer structure based on the minimum path of the two-layer structure, and obtaining the reliability index of the two-layer structure includes:
sampling the state of the microgrid elements to acquire the output state of each distributed power supply connected to a load;
evaluating the connection state of each load point in the microgrid based on the output state of each distributed power supply;
judging whether the micro-grid is a virtual power plant running in a power mode or not based on the connection state of each load point;
if so, performing state evaluation on each load point in the active power distribution network based on the minimum path from each load point in all loads in the active power distribution network to the microgrid;
if not, performing state evaluation of each load point in the active power distribution network based on the minimum path from each load point in all loads in the active power distribution network to the main feeder line;
and acquiring the reliability index of the two-layer structure based on the state evaluation result.
Optionally, the reliability index of the two-layer structure includes: the system average power failure frequency index, the system average power failure continuous index, the system average power utilization availability index, the system average power utilization unavailability index and the system total power shortage index.
In the embodiment of the invention, a micro-grid connected with a distributed power supply is modeled based on a virtual power plant, the rate of state sampling is improved by using a minimum path and region division method, and the reliability of the active power distribution network adopting different operation modes under single or multiple emergency situations is evaluated by a non-sequential Monte Carlo method according to the state sampling result. The assessment method has flexibility and practicability, brings the intermittent and uncertain distributed power supply model into reliability assessment, improves the processing speed of the bidirectional tide of the active power distribution network, and ensures that the micro-grid can still maintain operation when the active power distribution network is disconnected with the main power grid.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a method for evaluating the reliability of an active power distribution network based on monte carlo simulation, which is disclosed by the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 shows an active power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on monte carlo simulation in an embodiment of the present invention, where the method includes the following steps:
s101, establishing a reliability model of the distributed power supply;
specifically, the establishing of the reliability model of the distributed power supply is the establishing of a distributed power generation multi-state reliability model based on a generalized capacity interruption table, and comprises the following steps:
discretizing the output power of the distributed power supply based on a fixed step length or variable step length distribution method to generate a plurality of discrete states; calculating the probability and the cumulative probability of the plurality of discrete states, and generating a generalized capacity interruption table of the distributed power supply as follows:
in the equation, the operating capacity of each discrete state is:
the probability of each discrete state is:
the cumulative probability for each discrete state is:
wherein R is1For the rated output power of the distributed generator, M is a discrete state number, TiFor the duration of each state, T represents the total time.
S102, establishing a reliability model of the microgrid;
specifically, establishing a reliability model of the microgrid is establishing a reliability model of the microgrid based on a virtual power plant, and comprises the following steps:
acquiring generalized capacity interruption tables of all distributed power supplies based on the reliability models of the distributed power supplies, and establishing generalized capacity interruption tables of the micro-grid; establishing a multi-state virtual power plant model based on the generalized capacity interruption table of the micro-grid; and establishing the reliability model of the micro-grid based on the multi-state virtual power plant model.
It should be noted that, whether the microgrid is an island or not is directly determined through a generalized capacity interruption table of the microgrid.
S103, based on the reliability model of the microgrid, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation to identify the state of each distributed power supply;
specifically, a two-step state sampling technology is adopted, and whether the corresponding distributed power supplies are in a use state or not is judged based on the forced outage rate of each distributed power supply; if yes, determining the operation capability of each corresponding distributed power supply based on the generalized capacity interrupt table of each corresponding distributed power supply, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
for one minuteGenerating a plurality of discrete states based on the step S101, and defining the forced outage rate of the ith discrete state as fiComparing the number with a random number R generated by uniformly distributed U (0,1) to judge the working state X of the ith discrete state of the distributed power supplyiComprises the following steps:
wherein 0 represents that the distributed power supply is in a fault state, and 1 represents that the distributed power supply is in a use state.
And generating another random number from the uniform distribution U (0,1) based on the use state of the distributed power supply, and comparing the another random number with the cumulative probability of the ith discrete state of the distributed power supply to obtain the operation capacity of the distributed power supply, namely determining the operation capacity of the distributed power supply.
It should be noted that, in this step, the operation capability determination is performed only for one distributed power source, and the microgrid includes a plurality of distributed power sources, and the operation capability determination needs to be repeated multiple times to determine the operation capability of each distributed power source in the microgrid.
S104, dividing the power distribution network into a plurality of areas based on the state of each distributed power supply, and searching the minimum path of the two-layer structure in each area;
it should be noted that the two-layer structure includes a microgrid and an active power distribution network.
Specifically, the power distribution network is divided into a plurality of areas by utilizing the positions of the circuit breaker and the sectionalizers; searching a minimum path for each load point in each microgrid aiming at all the microgrids in each area, wherein the minimum path is a path between a local load in each microgrid and each distributed power supply; and aiming at the active power distribution network in each area, searching a minimum path from each load point to all source nodes in all loads of the active power distribution network.
It should be noted that, for the active power distribution network in each area, when any virtual power plant operates as a power source, the virtual power plant operating in the user identity is regarded as a load point, and the load point has at least two minimum paths.
And S105, evaluating the reliability of the two-layer structure based on the minimum path of the two-layer structure, and acquiring the reliability index of the two-layer structure.
In the implementation process of the invention, reliability evaluation is carried out based on two layers of a micro-grid and an active power distribution network, firstly, the reliability of the micro-grid is evaluated, and the method comprises the following steps:
(1) sampling the state of the microgrid elements to acquire the output state of each distributed power supply connected to a load;
it should be noted that, the sampling of the state of the microgrid component is performed by using the two-step state sampling technique mentioned in step S103, the microgrid component includes a circuit, a bus, and a fuse, each distributed power source includes a photovoltaic array, a wind farm, a thermal power farm, and the like, and the detection of the output state of each distributed power source is performed according to actual application.
Note that the output of the disconnected distributed power supply is zero.
(2) Evaluating the connection state of each load point in the microgrid based on the output state of each distributed power supply;
specifically, according to the output state of each distributed power supply detected in the step (1), when a distributed power supply with an output of 0 is detected, it is determined that the minimum paths of the distributed power supplies at the end points cannot be connected; on the contrary, the detection of the distributed power source whose output is not 0 indicates that the distributed power source is continuously supplying power to the load point connected thereto, and therefore, it is determined that the end point is that the minimum path of the distributed power source is in the connected state.
(3) Judging whether the micro-grid is a virtual power plant running in a power mode or not based on the connection state of each load point;
specifically, according to the evaluation result in the step (2), determining the power output value of each distributed power supply in the microgrid, judging whether the total output power of all the distributed power supplies exceeds the load, if so, taking the microgrid as a virtual power plant running in a power supply mode, and executing a step (4); and if not, the micro-grid is used as a virtual power plant running in the user mode, and the step (5) is executed.
After the working mode of the microgrid is confirmed, then the reliability of the active power distribution network is continuously evaluated, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
(4) based on the minimum path from each load point in all loads in the active power distribution network to the microgrid, performing state evaluation on each load point in the active power distribution network;
it should be noted that when the virtual power plant operates in the power mode, it is indicated that a plurality of power sources exist in the active power distribution network, and if a certain minimum path fails, all loads in the active power distribution network still obtain sustainable power supply to other micro power grids. When the main power supply is disconnected, the micro-grid corresponding to the virtual power plant starts power supply in an island mode, and only provides power for part of priority loads.
(5) Based on the minimum path from each load point in all loads in the active power distribution network to the main feeder line, performing state evaluation on each load point in the active power distribution network;
it should be noted that, when all the virtual power plants operate in the user mode, the reliability evaluation of the active power distribution network is performed according to the reliability evaluation manner of the conventional power distribution network, and the main feeder is the only power supply. For a load point covered by any non-virtual power plant, when the minimum path connected with the load point fails, the load point loses the power supply of the main feeder. Aiming at the load points covered by the virtual power plant, when the minimum path connected with the load points fails, the minimum path is interrupted if the power generation capacity of the distributed power supply connected with the load points is exceeded. In addition, in order to restrict the total load of the virtual power plant, the load with lower priority level is reduced according to the preset load priority level, and the reduced load is not counted into the state evaluation.
(6) And acquiring the reliability index of the two-layer structure based on the state evaluation result.
Specifically, the reliability index of each load point mentioned in the evaluation results in the step (4) and the step (5) is calculated, and then the reliability indexes of the load points are summed to obtain the reliability index of the two-layer structure.
Wherein, the reliability index of each load point comprises: average outage rate λ of load pointiYear average power off time U of load pointiAnd the average power failure duration time r of each fault of the load point is equal to Ui/λi。
The load point average outage rate is an expected value of the number of times of power failure at the load point within the statistical time, and the load point annual average outage time is an expected value of the load point outage duration within the statistical time.
The reliability indexes of the two-layer structure include: the average outage frequency index of system, the average outage of system lasts index, the average power consumption availability index of system, the average power consumption unavailability index of system and the total electric quantity of system index of insufficiency, wherein:
the average outage frequency index of the system is as follows:
wherein λ isiMean failure rate for load point i, NiThe number of users at load point i.
The average outage duration index of the system is as follows:
wherein, UiThe power failure time of the load point i.
The system average power utilization availability index is as follows:
the system average power utilization unavailability index is as follows:
ASUI＝1-ASAI
the total electric quantity insufficiency index of the system is as follows:
total power shortage of ENS ═ system ═ Σ LaiUi
Wherein L isaiIs the average load of the access load point i.
In the implementation process of the invention, a 10kV power distribution system in the northwest region is taken as a research sample, and 89 load points of the 10kV power distribution feeder are known, and the total load is 27.683MW, wherein the power distribution system comprises three micro-grids MG1, MG2 and MG3, and the three micro-grids comprise eight distributed power generation sources DG1, DG2, DG3, DG4, DG5, DG6, DG7 and DG 8.
The characteristics of the eight distributed power sources are shown in table 1, and each distributed power source corresponds to a generalized capacity interrupt table.
TABLE 1 characteristics of the distributed power sources
| Name (R) | Rated capacity (MW) | Type of generator |
| DG1 | 6(1.5×2+1×3) | Wind power |
| DG2 | 4(2×2) | Gas combustion |
| DG3 | 4(1.5×2+1) | Wind power |
| DG4 | 4(2×2) | Gas combustion |
| DG5 | 4(2×2) | Photovoltaic system |
| DG6 | 5.5(1.5×3+1) | Wind power |
| DG7 | 4(2×2) | Gas combustion |
| DG8 | 2.5(1.5+1) | Wind power |
Based on the characteristics of the eight distributed power sources, the three micro-grids are configured as shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 configuration of the microgrid
| Name (R) | Total load (MW) | Total rated volume (MW) | Margin |
| MG1 | 6.821 | 10 | 31.79％ |
| MG2 | 5.9565 | 9.5 | 37.30％ |
| MG3 | 8.2365 | 4.5 | 43.20％ |
It should be noted that, as can be seen from table 2, the capacity margin of each of the three micro-grids exceeds 30%, and the capacity margin is not always available due to the intermittency and randomness of the renewable energy sources.
Taking the microgrid MG1 as an example, a generalized capacity interruption table of the microgrid MG1 is established, and as shown in table 3, two cases of operating in a power mode and a user mode with the microgrid MG1 are considered.
TABLE 3 generalized Capacity interrupt Table for microgrid MG1
It should be noted that, as can be seen from table 3, the micro grid MG1 has a probability of only 9% being supplied with power from the grid as a user, and a probability of 90.97% being operated as a power source to supply power to internal load points and to supply power to all load points in the active distribution grid.
The distribution network is divided into four areas, namely, an area without a microgrid, a microgrid MG1 area, a microgrid MG2 area and a microgrid MG3 network, and the two conditions of a non-integrated microgrid and an integrated microgrid are divided, and the obtained system average electricity utilization rate index ASUI is respectively shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 System reliability index for different regions
And comparing ASUI indexes under the two conditions of the non-integrated microgrid and the integrated microgrid according to the difference of areas, and judging the change of the reliability index of the whole system. As can be seen from table 4, due to the integration of the microgrid, the average power utilization unavailability of the entire system is significantly reduced, that is, the reliability of the entire system is significantly improved, which indicates that each load point of the active power distribution network can still be supplied with power by the distributed power supply without the main feeder providing power support.
In the embodiment of the invention, a micro-grid connected with a distributed power supply is modeled based on a virtual power plant, the rate of state sampling is improved by using a minimum path and region division method, and the reliability of the active power distribution network adopting different operation modes under single or multiple emergency situations is evaluated by a non-sequential Monte Carlo method according to the state sampling result. The assessment method has flexibility and practicability, brings the intermittent and uncertain distributed power supply model into reliability assessment, improves the processing speed of the bidirectional tide of the active power distribution network, and ensures that the micro-grid can still maintain operation when the active power distribution network is disconnected with the main power grid.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the steps in the methods of the above embodiments may be implemented by associated hardware instructed by a program, which may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and the storage medium may include: a Read Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a magnetic or optical disk, or the like.
In addition, the active power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on monte carlo simulation provided by the embodiment of the present invention is described in detail above, a specific embodiment should be adopted herein to explain the principle and the implementation manner of the present invention, and the description of the above embodiment is only used to help understanding the method of the present invention and the core idea thereof; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, there may be variations in the specific embodiments and the application scope, and in summary, the content of the present specification should not be construed as a limitation to the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. An active power distribution network reliability assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation is characterized by comprising the following steps:
establishing a reliability model of the distributed power supply;
establishing a reliability model of the microgrid based on the reliability model of the distributed power supply;
based on the reliability model of the microgrid, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation to identify the state of each distributed power supply;
dividing the power distribution network into a plurality of areas based on the state of each distributed power supply, and searching the minimum path of a two-layer structure in each area;
and evaluating the reliability of the two-layer structure based on the minimum path of the two-layer structure to obtain the reliability index of the two-layer structure.
2. The method for evaluating the reliability of the active power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the establishing of the reliability model of the distributed power source is establishing of a distributed power generation multi-state reliability model based on a generalized capacity interruption table, and comprises the following steps:
discretizing the output power of the distributed power supply based on a fixed step length or variable step length distribution method to generate a plurality of discrete states;
and calculating the probability and the cumulative probability of the plurality of discrete states to generate a generalized capacity interruption table of the distributed power supply.
3. The active power distribution network reliability evaluation method according to claim 2, wherein the generalized capacity outage table of the distributed power source is:
in the equation, the operating capacity of each discrete state is:
the probability of each discrete state is:
the cumulative probability for each discrete state is:
wherein R is1For the rated output power of the distributed generator, M is a discrete state number, TiFor the duration of each state, T represents the total time.
4. The method for evaluating the reliability of the active power distribution network according to claim 3, wherein the establishing of the reliability model of the microgrid is the establishing of the reliability model of the microgrid based on a virtual power plant, and comprises the following steps:
acquiring generalized capacity interruption tables of all distributed power supplies based on the reliability models of the distributed power supplies, and establishing generalized capacity interruption tables of the micro-grid;
establishing a multi-state virtual power plant model based on the generalized capacity interruption table of the micro-grid;
and establishing the reliability model of the micro-grid based on the multi-state virtual power plant model.
5. The active power distribution network reliability assessment method according to claim 4, wherein the identifying the state of each distributed power source by using Monte Carlo simulation based on the reliability model of the micro power grid comprises:
judging whether the corresponding distributed power supplies are in a use state or not based on the forced outage rates of the distributed power supplies;
and if so, determining the operation capacity of each corresponding distributed power supply based on the generalized capacity interrupt table of each corresponding distributed power supply.
6. The method for reliability evaluation of the active power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the two-layer structure comprises a micro-grid and an active power distribution network.
7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the distribution network is divided into a plurality of areas based on the state of each distributed power source, and the searching for the minimum path of the two-layer structure in each area comprises:
dividing the power distribution network into a plurality of areas by utilizing the positions of the circuit breakers and the sectionalizers;
searching a minimum path for each load point in each microgrid aiming at all the microgrids in each area, wherein the minimum path is a path between a local load in each microgrid and each distributed power supply;
and aiming at the active power distribution network in each area, searching a minimum path from each load point to all power nodes in all loads of the active power distribution network.
8. The method according to claim 7, wherein the reliability of the two-layer structure is evaluated based on the minimum path of the two-layer structure, and obtaining the reliability index of the two-layer structure comprises:
sampling the state of the microgrid elements to acquire the output state of each distributed power supply connected to a load;
evaluating the connection state of each load point in the microgrid based on the output state of each distributed power supply;
judging whether the micro-grid is a virtual power plant running in a power mode or not based on the connection state of each load point;
if so, performing state evaluation on each load point in the active power distribution network based on the minimum path from each load point in all loads in the active power distribution network to the microgrid;
if not, performing state evaluation of each load point in the active power distribution network based on the minimum path from each load point in all loads in the active power distribution network to the main feeder line;
and acquiring the reliability index of the two-layer structure based on the state evaluation result.
9. The method for evaluating the reliability of the active power distribution network according to claim 8, wherein the reliability indexes of the two-layer structure comprise: the system average power failure frequency index, the system average power failure continuous index, the system average power utilization availability index, the system average power utilization unavailability index and the system total power shortage index.
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