CN105528646A - Energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method facing multiple electrolytic aluminum factories - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses an energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method facing multiple electrolytic aluminum factories. An energy efficiency power plant facing the multiple electrolytic aluminum factories is classified and numbered according to the operation manners and the technology types; on the basis that the electrolytic aluminum energy saving technology is analyzed, a generating set reliability model of the power system of the multiple electrolytic aluminum factories is established, and an outage capacity table set of the generator system is established; original load data of the generating set is input; an output curve of the energy efficiency power plant is separated from the original load curve to obtain a payload curve; random production simulation is carried out on the power system of the multiple electrolytic aluminum factories of the energy efficiency power plant by utilizing the equivalent electric quantity function method; the operation condition of the power system is monitored, the system reliability is analyzed, and the reliability index of the power system is calculated; and correlation processing is carried out on the multi-type energy efficiency power plant of the electrolytic aluminum factories, the simulated effective capacity of the single-type energy efficiency power plant is multiplied by the correlation coefficient after convolution, and the practical effective capacity of the multi-type energy efficiency power plant of the electrolytic aluminum factories is obtained.

Description

Towards the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of integrated prioritization scheme of energy efficiency power plant capacity towards electrolytic aluminium factory, based on electric system Stochastic Production Simulation, consider the multiclass energy efficiency power plant correlativity of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, ensure under electric network reliability condition realize energy-conservation, reduce discharging.

Background technology

Aluminium electrolytic industry is very important basic material industry, is also well-known high energy consumption industry.Electrolytic aluminium plant is high power DC user, there is the problems such as the humorous wave height of commutation system typical frequency, reactive power consumption be large.Energy efficiency power plant (EPP) refers to by adopting efficient consumer and the approach such as product, optimization power mode, form the total action scheme of certain area, industry or enterprises building transformation plan, reach the object identical with Jian Xin power plant, the demand of minimizing is treated as the quantity of electricity that " virtual plant " provides.

The parameters such as energy efficiency power plant belongs to virtual plant, its power plant's capacity are that the method assessed by energy-saving effect is obtained.The energy efficiency power plant capacity difficult point optimizing multiple electrolytic aluminium factory is, energy efficiency power plant belongs to virtual plant, essence is gathering of a series of project, but because its operation has randomness, enforcement is at load side, the load curve implemented after energy efficiency power plant can change, and the calculating useful capacity method of conventional power unit is not suitable for.

Compared with construction conventional power plant, the construction period of energy efficiency power plant is short, without any discharge and pollution, cost is very cheap, energy is response scheduling fast, be the effective way implemented demand Side Management, realize energy-saving and emission-reduction, great help can be had to the problem solving the current energy aspects such as electricity shortage.

Summary of the invention

The present invention is directed to prior art deficiency, propose a kind of energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory.Propose the solution of the correlativity of the multiclass energy efficiency power plant of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, and form the calculation process of energy efficiency power plant useful capacity.Can promote that when not expanding electric system and new power plant construction electric energy utilizes more efficiently, realizes energy conservation and pollution reduction.

The technical solution adopted in the present invention:

The present invention is on analysis electrolytic aluminium typical case power-saving technology implementation basis, set up multiple electrolytic aluminium factory places electric power system model, by monitoring ruuning situation, consider the multiclass energy efficiency power plant correlativity of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, Stochastic Production Simulation is carried out to the electric system at electrolytic aluminium factory place, modified load curve, thus the change of For The Reliability Indicas of Gereration System before and after reflection About High Efficiency Power Plant, namely expected loss of load (LOLE) and the situation of change of peak load relation curve judge the useful capacity of EPP.The described energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, implementation step comprises:

Step 1: the energy efficiency power plant towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory is carried out class and numbering respectively according to the method for operation and the type of skill;

Step 2: on analysis electrolytic aluminium typical case power-saving technology implementation basis, set up the Generating Unit Operation Reliability model of the electric system at multiple electrolytic aluminium factory place, set up generator system stoppage in transit capacities chart collection;

Step 3: input genset load raw data;

Step 4: the power curve of energy efficiency power plant is separated from original loads curve and obtains net load curve;

Step 5: use the electric system of equivalent energy function method to the multiple electrolytic aluminium factory places implementing energy efficiency power plant to carry out Stochastic Production Simulation;

Step 6: by monitoring Operation of Electric Systems situation, analytic system reliability, asks for For The Reliability Indicas of Gereration System;

Step 7: carry out correlativity process to the multiclass energy efficiency power plant of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, is multiplied by relative coefficient after the single class energy efficiency power plant useful capacity simulated is carried out convolution, tries to achieve the actual useful capacity of multiclass electrolytic aluminium factory energy efficiency power plant.

The described energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, in step 7, asking for of energy efficiency power plant useful capacity mainly needs expected loss of load LOLE, gets a series of peak load numerical value and obtains the expected loss of load under different situations thus form LOLE and annual peak load relation curve; Carry out Stochastic Production Simulation to the electric system at electrolytic aluminium factory place, after considering the situation modified load curve of enforcement energy efficiency power plant, its LOLE and annual peak load relation curve also will change; Relatively implement before and after energy efficiency power plant under the not enough expectation value of same power, the difference of peak load numerical value, namely the situation of change of expected loss of load LOLE and peak load relation curve judges the useful capacity of EPP.

When multiclass energy efficiency power plant useful capacity towards the electric system at multiple electrolytic aluminium factory place calculates, when the multiclass energy efficiency power plant in electric system is run mutually independently, then each energy efficiency power plant processed respectively and useful capacity is carried out convolution, then obtaining the energy efficiency power plant EPP useful capacity distribution of the multiple electrolytic aluminium factory in this section.

When the multiclass energy efficiency power plant of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory has correlativity, after single class energy efficiency power plant useful capacity is carried out convolution, be multiplied by relative coefficient, try to achieve the useful capacity distribution of multiclass electrolytic aluminium factory energy efficiency power plant.

Beneficial effect of the present invention:

1, the present invention is towards the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, energy efficiency power plant is placed on energy-conservation foothold on the concrete energy equipment of terminal, be convenient to take targetedly and be easy to the promotion policy that operates and technical measures, make energy-conservationly easily to put into practice.

2, the energy efficiency projects for the energy efficiency power plant towards electrolytic aluminium factory carries out classifying and plans, solve because efficiency measure technology kind is many, wide application and a difficult problem for the aspect statistics such as dispersion, specify that the method that the energy efficiency power plant power curve of corresponding classification obtains, use for reference for energy efficiency management work provides useful method.

3, after realizing the optimization of energy efficiency power plant capacity, the electricity saved by implementing energy-saving scheme can be considered the electricity of virtual plant " production ", meanwhile decrease electric load and improve and produce and power consumption efficiency, can promote that when not expanding electric system and new power plant construction electric energy utilizes more efficiently, realize energy conservation and pollution reduction, improve system loading rate, thus the reliability of raising whole system, stability and security.

The ability of 4, cutting down power system load is called the useful capacity of EPP, specify that the acquiring method of the energy efficiency power plant useful capacity towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory.The useful capacity of EPP can be used for weighing EPP to the reliability contribution of electric system.When power grid enterprises are as EPP subject of implementation, Utilities Electric Co. should select those to contribute large energy efficiency projects preferentially to implement to Power System Reliability, and the theoretical capacity of EPP can not represent its contribution to Power System Reliability, be therefore necessary the useful capacity calculating EPP.

5, consider the multiclass energy efficiency power plant correlativity of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, more accurately and effectively can ask for the useful capacity of multiple energy efficiency power plant with correlativity.

6, the present invention is towards the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, scale and benefit are obvious, the multiple electrolytic aluminium factory production planning regional to management and organization and administration have science, efficiently directive significance more, can reduce the cost and risk of energy efficiency projects running.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method process flow diagram of the present invention towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory;

The curve that the Different L OLE value obtained in Fig. 2 series peak load numerical value situation is formed.

Embodiment

Below by embodiment, technical scheme of the present invention is described in further detail.

Embodiment 1:

See Fig. 1, Fig. 2.The object of the invention is the solution of the correlativity of the multiclass energy efficiency power plant proposing multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, and form the calculation process of energy efficiency power plant useful capacity.Mainly solved by following technical proposals:

Step 1: the energy efficiency power plant towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory is carried out class and numbering respectively according to the method for operation and the type of skill;

Step 2: set up generator system stoppage in transit capacities chart;

Step 3: input genset load raw data;

Step 4: the power curve of energy efficiency power plant is separated from original loads curve and obtains net load curve;

Step 5: use the electric system of equivalent energy function method to the multiple electrolytic aluminium factory places implementing energy efficiency power plant to carry out Stochastic Production Simulation;

Step 6: analytic system reliability, ask for reliability index, expected loss of load (LOLE), get a series of peak load numerical value and then can obtain expected loss of load value under different situations thus forming curves, relatively implement before and after energy efficiency power plant under the not enough expectation value of same power, the difference of peak load numerical value;

Step 7: the multiclass energy efficiency power plant correlativity process of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, is multiplied by relative coefficient after the useful capacity monitored is carried out convolution.

Embodiment:

Step 1: mode classification citing is as table 1:

Step 2: Generating Unit Operation Reliability model is the probability tables collection of genset under various capacity status.For the electric system at the simplest two unit places, No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset separate, so both in parallel after accumulative probability directly can be drawn by convolution sum:

$P\left(X_k\right)=\underset{j=0}{\overset{N_2}{\Σ}}{P}_1(X_k-X_j)\[P_2\left(X_j\right)-P_2\left(X_{j+1}\right)\]---\left(1\right)$

Wherein P ₁(X _i) (i=0,1,2 ..., N ₁), P ₁(X _i) (i=0,1,2 ..., N ₂) be respectively the cumulative probability of No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset, N ₁with N ₂be respectively the discrete number of No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset stoppage in transit capacity; P (X _k) be cumulative probability after No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset parallel connections.

When electric system has n platform genset type the same, and when forced outage rate is r, the Probability p that k platform unit is stopped transport simultaneously _kcan calculate by following formula:

$p_k=C_n^k{r}^k{(1-r)}^{n-k}---\left(2\right)$

Also the genset that type is different is had when the existing type of electric system is identical, the stoppage in transit capacity probability tables calculating them then first can calculate the situation of identical type unit by formula (2), then carries out convolution algorithm until all units obtain final unit outage capacity probability tables after all having calculated by formula (1) by parallel one by one for probability.

Step 5: application equivalent energy function method first forms electric quantity function, namely asks system institute's subfam. Spiraeoideae in different load situation, and the situation that generator is stopped transport is taken into account and revised.Selected step delta x, the x of transverse axis is treated to by Δ x homogenous segmentations, sets up discrete electrical flow function:

$E\left(k\right)={\∫}_x^{x+\mathrm{\Δ}x}F\left(x\right)dx---\left(3\right)$

Wherein: k=< x/ Δ x >+1, < x/ Δ x > is the integer being not more than x/ Δ x; E (k) is the power load that Δ x this section of load curve is corresponding from x to x+, and F (x) is lasting load curve.

Revise electric quantity function: consider generator stoppage in transit situation, if original lasting load curve is F ⁽⁰⁾x (), corresponding electric quantity function is E ⁽⁰⁾x (), the lasting load curve after arranging i-1 generator is F ^(i-1)x (), corresponding electric quantity function is E ^(i-1)(x).Make i generating set capacity C _i, forced outage rate is q _i, then the equivalent electric quantity function after dropping into i genset is:

E ⁽ⁱ⁾(k)＝p _iE ^(i-1)(k)+q _iE ^(i-1)(k-m _i)(4)

Wherein: p _i=1-q _i, m _i=C _i/ Δ x.

The generated energy of i genset is then according to equivalent electric quantity function E ^(i-1)(k) ask for into:

$E_{G_i}=p_i\underset{k_{i-1}+1}{\overset{k_i}{\&Sigma;}}{E}^{(i-1)}\left(k\right)---\left(5\right)$

Step 6: asking for of energy efficiency power plant useful capacity mainly needs expected loss of load (LOLE).

Expected loss of load (LOLE) represents that the working capacity of electric system can not meet number of days or the hourage of the expectation of workload demand, can be asked for, that is: by loss of load probability (LOLP) in research cycle T

LOLE＝LOLP×T(6)

Wherein T is research cycle.When a total n platform unit in system, total volume is C _s, after all carrying out convolution algorithm through order and terminating, equivalent load duration curve is f ⁽ⁿ⁾x (), system maximum equivalent load is P _lmax+ C _s.Loss of load probability LOLP is:

LOLP＝f ⁽ⁿ⁾(C _S)(7)

Equivalent electric quantity function is E ⁽ⁿ⁾(k), loss of load probability LOLP is:

$LOLP\&ap;\frac{E^{\left(n\right)}\left(k_n\right)+E^{\left(n\right)}(k_n+1)}{2T\mathrm{\&Delta;}x}---\left(8\right)$

Again according to the generator reliability model set up in step 2, LOLE can be expressed as:

$LOLE=\underset{k}{\&Sigma;}P(X>(C-L_k\left)\right)\&CenterDot;t_k---\left(9\right)$

Wherein C is genset total installation of generating capacity, L _kfor revised day peakload, t _kfor this state duration.

After completing the Power System Reliability Analysis containing energy efficiency power plant, obtain expected loss of load LOLE.When in the immovable situation of electricity generation system, when annual peak load increases, corresponding LOLE also can increase.So get a series of peak load numerical value and then can obtain LOLE value under different situations thus forming curves.As Fig. 1 profile 1.: load is by W ₁increase to W ₂time, LOLE has risen to about 90 by 0.1.

In above systems reliability analysis, the shape invariance of general supposition load curve, during load growth, curve ratio increases, when increasing the genset of certain capacity, the change be reflected on LOLE and peak load curve is curve to right translation, the distance of translation is the generating useful capacity of increase, as Fig. 1 profile 2., ab section be increase generating useful capacity.

When after the impact adding energy efficiency power plant in electric system, Stochastic Production Simulation modified load curve, shape changes.Original electric system implement the new LOLE after energy efficiency power plant and annual peak load curve as curve 3..

As shown in Figure 1, work as LOLE=0.1, the value of EPP useful capacity is shown by ab segment table on figure, is identical with the useful capacity effect of newly-increased conventional power generation usage unit; Work as LOLE=10, the value of EPP useful capacity on figure by c ₁e ₁segment table shows, than the useful capacity recruitment c adding conventional power plant ₁d ₁want large; As LOLE=0.01, the value of EPP useful capacity on figure by c ₂e ₂segment table shows, than the useful capacity recruitment c adding conventional power plant ₂d ₂little.So can see, when the value of electric system LOLE is different, the useful capacity of EPP is different; Equally, the situation of exerting oneself of EPP is different, and curve shape 3. also can be different.

Step 7: when the multiclass energy efficiency power plant useful capacity towards the electric system at multiple electrolytic aluminium factory place calculates, when the multiclass energy efficiency power plant in electric system is run mutually independently, then each energy efficiency power plant processed respectively and useful capacity is carried out convolution, then obtaining the energy efficiency power plant EPP useful capacity distribution of the multiple electrolytic aluminium factory in this section.

Run when there being some EPP of N institute electrolytic aluminium factory and have correlativity, such as energy-conservation electrolytic tank (EPP2) is relevant to the operation of production low consumption transformer and transverter (EPP5), so according to the definition of correlativity, after the useful capacity monitored can being carried out convolution, be multiplied by relative coefficient R _2,5:

$R_{2,5}=\frac{\frac{1}{N}\underset{i=1}{\overset{N}{\&Sigma;}}(W_{W2,i}-W_{W2,av})(W_{W5,i}-W_{W5,av})}{{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_2{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_5}---\left(10\right)$

Wherein W _{w2, i}represent the useful capacity of the energy-conservation electrolytic tank energy efficiency power plant (EPP2) of No. i-th electrolytic aluminium factory, W _{w2, av}represent the useful capacity mean value of the energy-conservation electrolytic tank energy efficiency power plant (EPP2) of N institute electrolytic aluminium factory, σ ₂for the useful capacity serial variance of N institute EPP2; W _{w5, i}represent production low consumption transformer and transverter (EPP5) useful capacity of No. i-th electrolytic aluminium factory, W _{w5, av}represent that N institute electrolytic aluminium factory produces the useful capacity mean value with low consumption transformer and transverter (EPP5), σ ₅for the useful capacity serial variance of N institute electrolytic aluminium factory production low consumption transformer and transverter (EPP5).

Embodiment 2:

See Fig. 1, the present embodiment is towards the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, and implementation step comprises:

Step 1: the energy efficiency power plant towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory is carried out class and numbering respectively according to the method for operation and the type of skill;

Step 2: on analysis electrolytic aluminium typical case power-saving technology implementation basis, set up the Generating Unit Operation Reliability model of the electric system at multiple electrolytic aluminium factory place, set up generator system stoppage in transit capacities chart collection;

Step 3: input genset load raw data;

Step 4: the power curve of energy efficiency power plant is separated from original loads curve and obtains net load curve;

Step 5: use the electric system of equivalent energy function method to the multiple electrolytic aluminium factory places implementing energy efficiency power plant to carry out Stochastic Production Simulation;

Step 6: by monitoring Operation of Electric Systems situation, analytic system reliability, asks for electric system reliabilityindex;

Step 7: carry out correlativity process to the multiclass energy efficiency power plant of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, is multiplied by relative coefficient after the single class energy efficiency power plant useful capacity simulated is carried out convolution, tries to achieve the actual useful capacity of multiclass electrolytic aluminium factory energy efficiency power plant.

Embodiment 3:

The energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory of the present embodiment, it is as different from Example 2: in step 7, asking for of energy efficiency power plant useful capacity mainly needs expected loss of load LOLE, gets a series of peak load numerical value and obtains the expected loss of load under different situations thus form LOLE and annual peak load relation curve;

Carry out Stochastic Production Simulation to the electric system at electrolytic aluminium factory place, after considering the situation modified load curve of enforcement energy efficiency power plant, its LOLE and annual peak load relation curve also will change;

Relatively implement before and after energy efficiency power plant under the not enough expectation value of same power, the difference of peak load numerical value, namely the situation of change of expected loss of load LOLE and peak load relation curve judges the useful capacity of EPP.

Embodiment 4:

The energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory of the present embodiment, itself and embodiment 2 or embodiment 3 unlike: in step 2, Generating Unit Operation Reliability model is the probability tables collection of genset under various capacity status: for the electric system at the simplest two unit places, No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset separate, so both in parallel after accumulative probability directly can be drawn by convolution sum:

$P\left(X_k\right)=\underset{j=0}{\overset{N_2}{\&Sigma;}}{P}_1(X_k-X_j)\&lsqb;P_2\left(X_j\right)-P_2\left(X_{j+1}\right)\&rsqb;---\left(1\right)$

Wherein P ₁(X _i) (i=0,1,2 ..., N ₁), P ₁(X _i) (i=0,1,2 ..., N ₂) be respectively the cumulative probability of No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset, N ₁with N ₂be respectively the discrete number of No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset stoppage in transit capacity; P (X _k) be cumulative probability after No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset parallel connections;

When electric system has n platform genset type the same, and when forced outage rate is r, the Probability p that k platform unit is stopped transport simultaneously _kcan calculate by following formula:

$p_k=C_n^k{r}^k{(1-r)}^{n-k}---\left(2\right)$

Also the genset that type is different is had when the existing type of electric system is identical, the stoppage in transit capacity probability tables calculating them then first can calculate the situation of identical type unit by formula (2), then carries out convolution algorithm until all units obtain final unit outage capacity probability tables after all having calculated by formula (1) by parallel one by one for probability.

Embodiment 5:

The energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory of the present embodiment, it is as different from Example 3: expected loss of load represents in research cycle T, the working capacity of electric system can not meet number of days or the hourage of the expectation of workload demand, can be asked for by loss of load probability, that is:

LOLE＝LOLP×T(6)

Wherein T is research cycle; When a total n platform unit in system, total volume is C _s, after all carrying out convolution algorithm through order and terminating, equivalent load duration curve is f ⁽ⁿ⁾x (), system maximum equivalent load is P _lmax+ C _s, loss of load probability LOLP is:

LOLP＝f ⁽ⁿ⁾(C _S)(7)

Equivalent electric quantity function is E ⁽ⁿ⁾(k), loss of load probability LOLP is:

$LOLP\&ap;\frac{E^{\left(n\right)}\left(k_n\right)+E^{\left(n\right)}(k_n+1)}{2T\mathrm{\&Delta;}x}---\left(8\right)$

Again according to the generator reliability model set up in step 2, LOLE can be expressed as:

$LOLE=\underset{k}{\&Sigma;}P(X>(C-L_k\left)\right)\&CenterDot;t_k---\left(9\right)$

Wherein C is genset total installation of generating capacity, L _kfor revised day peakload, t _kfor this state duration;

After completing the Power System Reliability Analysis containing energy efficiency power plant, obtain expected loss of load (LOLE), when in the immovable situation of electricity generation system, when annual peak load increases, corresponding LOLE also can increase.So get a series of peak load numerical value then can obtain the LOLE value under different situations thus form LOLE and annual peak load relation curve.

Embodiment 6:

The energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory of the present embodiment, itself and foregoing embodiments unlike: in step 7, when multiclass energy efficiency power plant useful capacity towards the electric system at multiple electrolytic aluminium factory place calculates, when the multiclass energy efficiency power plant in electric system is run mutually independently, then each energy efficiency power plant processed respectively and useful capacity is carried out convolution, then obtaining the energy efficiency power plant EPP useful capacity distribution of the multiple electrolytic aluminium factory in this section.

When the multiclass energy efficiency power plant of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory has correlativity, after single class energy efficiency power plant useful capacity is carried out convolution, be multiplied by relative coefficient, try to achieve the useful capacity distribution of multiclass electrolytic aluminium factory energy efficiency power plant; Such as energy-conservation electrolytic tank (EPP2) is relevant to the operation of production low consumption transformer and transverter (EPP5), so according to the definition of correlativity, is multiplied by relative coefficient R after the useful capacity monitored can being carried out convolution _2,5:

$R_{2,5}=\frac{\frac{1}{N}\underset{i=1}{\overset{N}{\&Sigma;}}(W_{W2,i}-W_{W2,av})(W_{W5,i}-W_{W5,av})}{{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_2{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_5}---\left(10\right)$

Wherein W _{w2, i}represent the useful capacity of the energy-conservation electrolytic tank energy efficiency power plant (EPP2) of No. i-th electrolytic aluminium factory, W _{w2, av}represent the useful capacity mean value of the energy-conservation electrolytic tank energy efficiency power plant (EPP2) of N institute electrolytic aluminium factory, σ ₂for the useful capacity serial variance of N institute EPP2; W _{w5, i}represent production low consumption transformer and transverter (EPP5) useful capacity of No. i-th electrolytic aluminium factory, W _{w5, av}represent that N institute electrolytic aluminium factory produces the useful capacity mean value with low consumption transformer and transverter (EPP5), σ ₅for the useful capacity serial variance of N institute electrolytic aluminium factory production low consumption transformer and transverter (EPP5).

Claims (7)

1., towards an energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method for multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, implementation step comprises:

Step 1: the energy efficiency power plant towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory is carried out class and numbering respectively according to the method for operation and the type of skill;

Step 2: on analysis electrolytic aluminium power-saving technology implementation basis, set up the Generating Unit Operation Reliability model of the electric system at multiple electrolytic aluminium factory place, set up generator system stoppage in transit capacities chart collection;

Step 3: input genset load raw data;

Step 4: the power curve of energy efficiency power plant is separated from original loads curve and obtains net load curve;

Step 5: use the electric system of equivalent energy function method to the multiple electrolytic aluminium factory places implementing energy efficiency power plant to carry out Stochastic Production Simulation;

Step 6: by monitoring Operation of Electric Systems situation, analytic system reliability, asks for For The Reliability Indicas of Gereration System;

Step 7: carry out correlativity process to the multiclass energy efficiency power plant of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory, is multiplied by relative coefficient after the single class energy efficiency power plant useful capacity simulated is carried out convolution, tries to achieve the actual useful capacity of multiclass electrolytic aluminium factory energy efficiency power plant.

2. the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: in step 7, asking for of energy efficiency power plant useful capacity mainly needs expected loss of load LOLE, gets a series of peak load numerical value and obtains the expected loss of load under different situations thus form LOLE and annual peak load relation curve;

Carry out Stochastic Production Simulation to the electric system at electrolytic aluminium factory place, after considering the situation modified load curve of enforcement energy efficiency power plant, its LOLE and annual peak load relation curve also will change;

Relatively implement before and after energy efficiency power plant under the not enough expectation value of same power, the difference of peak load numerical value, namely the situation of change of expected loss of load LOLE and peak load relation curve judges the useful capacity of EPP.

3. the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory according to claim 1 and 2, it is characterized in that: in step 2, Generating Unit Operation Reliability model is the probability tables collection of genset under various capacity status: for the electric system at the simplest two unit places, No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset separate, so both in parallel after accumulative probability directly can be drawn by convolution sum:

Wherein P ₁(X _i) (i=0,1,2 ..., N ₁), P ₁(X _i) (i=0,1,2 ..., N ₂) be respectively the cumulative probability of No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset, N ₁with N ₂be respectively the discrete number of No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset stoppage in transit capacity; P (X _k) be cumulative probability after No. 1 genset and No. 2 genset parallel connections;

When electric system has n platform genset type the same, and when forced outage rate is r, the Probability p that k platform unit is stopped transport simultaneously _kcan calculate by following formula:

Also the genset that type is different is had when the existing type of electric system is identical, the stoppage in transit capacity probability tables calculating them then first can calculate the situation of identical type unit by formula (2), then carries out convolution algorithm until all units obtain final unit outage capacity probability tables after all having calculated by formula (1) by parallel one by one for probability.

4. the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory according to claim 3, it is characterized in that: in step 5, application equivalent energy function method first forms electric quantity function, namely ask system institute's subfam. Spiraeoideae in different load situation, and the situation that generator is stopped transport taken into account and revised:

Selected step delta x, the x of transverse axis is treated to by Δ x homogenous segmentations, sets up discrete electrical flow function:

Wherein: k=< x/ Δ x >+1, < x/ Δ x > is the integer being not more than x/ Δ x; E (k) is the power load that Δ x this section of load curve is corresponding from x to x+, and F (x) is lasting load curve;

Revise electric quantity function: consider generator stoppage in transit situation, if original lasting load curve is F ⁽⁰⁾x (), corresponding electric quantity function is E ⁽⁰⁾x (), the lasting load curve after arranging i-1 generator is F ^(i-1)x (), corresponding electric quantity function is E ^(i-1)(x).Make i generating set capacity C _i, forced outage rate is q _i, then the equivalent electric quantity function after dropping into i genset is:

E ⁽ⁱ⁾(k)＝p _iE ^(i-1)(k)+q _iE ^(i-1)(k-m _i)(4)

Wherein: p _i=1-q _i, m _i=C _i/ Δ x, then

The generated energy of i genset is then according to equivalent electric quantity function E ^(i-1)(k) ask for into:

5. the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory according to claim 2, it is characterized in that: expected loss of load represents in research cycle T, the working capacity of electric system can not meet number of days or the hourage of the expectation of workload demand, can be asked for by loss of load probability, that is:

LOLE＝LOLP×T(6)

Wherein T is research cycle; When a total n platform unit in system, total volume is C _s, after all carrying out convolution algorithm through order and terminating, equivalent load duration curve is f ⁽ⁿ⁾x (), system maximum equivalent load is P _lmax+ C _s, loss of load probability LOLP is:

LOLP＝f ⁽ⁿ⁾(C _S)(7)

Equivalent electric quantity function is E ⁽ⁿ⁾(k), loss of load probability LOLP is:

Again according to the generator reliability model set up in step 2, LOLE can be expressed as:

Wherein C is genset total installation of generating capacity, L _kfor revised day peakload, t _kfor this state duration;

After completing the Power System Reliability Analysis containing energy efficiency power plant, obtain expected loss of load LOLE, when in the immovable situation of electricity generation system, when annual peak load increases, corresponding LOLE also can increase.So get a series of peak load numerical value then can obtain the LOLE value under different situations thus form LOLE and annual peak load relation curve.

6. the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory according to claim 1,2,4 or 5, it is characterized in that: in step 7, when multiclass energy efficiency power plant useful capacity towards the electric system at multiple electrolytic aluminium factory place calculates, when the multiclass energy efficiency power plant in electric system is run mutually independently, then each energy efficiency power plant processed respectively and useful capacity is carried out convolution, then obtaining the energy efficiency power plant EPP useful capacity distribution of the multiple electrolytic aluminium factory in this section.

7. the energy efficiency power plant capacity optimization method towards multiple electrolytic aluminium factory according to claim 6, it is characterized in that: when the multiclass energy efficiency power plant of multiple electrolytic aluminium factory has correlativity, be multiplied by relative coefficient after single class energy efficiency power plant useful capacity is carried out convolution, try to achieve the useful capacity distribution of multiclass electrolytic aluminium factory energy efficiency power plant;

Such as energy-conservation electrolytic tank is relevant to the operation of production low consumption transformer and transverter, so according to the definition of correlativity, is multiplied by relative coefficient R after the useful capacity monitored can being carried out convolution _2,5:

Wherein W _{w2, i}represent the useful capacity of the energy-conservation electrolytic tank energy efficiency power plant EPP2 of No. i-th electrolytic aluminium factory, W _{w2, av}represent the useful capacity mean value of the energy-conservation electrolytic tank energy efficiency power plant EPP2 of N institute electrolytic aluminium factory, σ ₂for the useful capacity serial variance of N institute EPP2; W _{w5, i}represent production low consumption transformer and the transverter EPP5 useful capacity of No. i-th electrolytic aluminium factory, W _{w5, av}represent that N institute electrolytic aluminium factory produces the useful capacity mean value with low consumption transformer and transverter EPP5, σ ₅for the useful capacity serial variance of N institute electrolytic aluminium factory production low consumption transformer and transverter EPP5.