CN110838076A - A monthly cross-provincial renewable energy consumption method and terminal equipment - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method and terminal equipment. The method includes: setting the consumption weight up-to-standard value of the current month in the province where it is located; estimating the renewable energy power demand in the current month; establishing different constraints The corresponding relationship between the conditions and the transaction decision items, and the transaction decision items under different constraints are sorted; the sorted transaction decision items are combined, and the optional transaction data items that satisfy multiple constraints at the same time are screened out. The power purchase cost and priority rules sort the optional transaction data items, and select multiple transaction data items according to the current month's renewable energy power demand in the province where the power purchase cost is from low to high; the present invention uses a transaction model Dynamically adjust the transaction data items that are actually executed each month under multiple constraints, improve the accuracy and rationality of the actual consumption of renewable energy power data, and improve the consumption of renewable energy power on the premise of taking into account the cost of power purchases ability.

Description

A monthly cross-provincial renewable energy consumption method and terminal equipment

technical field

The invention belongs to the technical field of renewable energy consumption and power supply, and more particularly, relates to a monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method and terminal equipment.

Background technique

In recent years, the state has successively issued a series of policy documents on promoting the high-quality development of renewable energy and effectively solving the problem of clean energy consumption. For the provincial power grid companies, how to carry out cross-provincial and cross-regional renewable energy power transactions under the new policy environment to adapt to the power market management strategy under the renewable energy power consumption guarantee mechanism has become an urgent problem to be solved.

Existing literature studies mostly focus on the power generation and scheduling of renewable energy, hoping to optimize the peak shaving sequence of pumped storage units, thermal power units and hydropower units to maximize the consumption space of non-hydro renewable energy power generation, so as to promote renewable energy. Energy consumption, but this method requires a large number of generator sets to cooperate with the construction, and its engineering and management costs are huge. At present, in the actual implementation process of renewable energy power consumption, each power grid company artificially sets the amount of renewable energy power consumption according to the province's annual assessment weight and demand set by the state. However, the consumption of renewable energy power The power consumption will be affected by factors such as climatic conditions, power trading cycle, power trading varieties and external power supply, and the artificially set renewable energy power consumption lacks accuracy and rationality, resulting in actual and expected consumption. There is a large deviation between them, and the consumption capacity is not fully exerted during the smooth power transaction period, resulting in the failure to complete the assessment indicators on time.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

Aiming at at least one defect or improvement demand of the prior art, the present invention provides a monthly cross-provincial renewable energy consumption method and terminal device, which can be used in multiple transactions through a transaction model composed of constraints, transaction decision items and priority rules. Dynamically adjust the transaction data items that are actually executed each month under the constraints, improve the accuracy and rationality of the actual consumption of renewable energy power data, and improve the consumption capacity of renewable energy power under the premise of taking into account the cost of power purchases.

In order to achieve the above object, according to one aspect of the present invention, a monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method is provided, comprising the following steps:

S1: Build a prediction model for the monthly cumulative consumption weight of renewable energy power reaching the standard value, collect the supply of renewable energy power inside and outside the province and the transmission volume of power channels in the current month, and input them into the prediction model to obtain the current month of the province where the renewable energy is located. The monthly cumulative consumption weight of energy and electricity reaches the standard value;

S2: Input the relevant indicators of the monthly demand for renewable energy power into the pre-created calculation model to obtain the current month's demand for renewable energy power in the province;

S3: Create a transaction model, where the transaction model is used to establish correspondence between different constraints and transaction decision items, and sort transaction decision items under different constraints according to the correspondence and preset priority rules ; The transaction model includes constraints, transaction decision items, and priority rules corresponding to the two;

S4: Combine the sorted transaction decision items, filter out optional transaction data items that satisfy multiple constraints at the same time, and sort the optional transaction data items according to the electricity purchase cost and priority rules to generate transaction data queue;

S5: Select and output at least one transaction data item from the transaction data queue according to the electricity demand of renewable energy in the current month in the province where the electricity purchase cost is from low to high.

Preferably, in the above-mentioned monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method, the creation of a transaction model in step S3 specifically includes:

establishing a first mapping relationship between attributes of different item categories under each transaction decision item;

establishing a second mapping relationship between attributes of different condition categories under each constraint;

The priority order of item categories corresponding to different condition categories under each constraint condition is established according to the first mapping relationship, the second mapping relationship and the preset priority rule, and a transaction model is generated.

Preferably, in the above-mentioned monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method, in step S1, the prediction model is:

1) If this month P(A1∩A2)≤A%, then

2) If this month P(A1∩A2)>A%, then

Among them, let “the supply of renewable energy power inside and outside the province in the current month is greater than the preset supply threshold” be event A1, and “the power channel transmission volume is greater than the preset transmission threshold” is event A2; P(A1∩A2) represents event A1 The probability of simultaneous occurrence with A2; A% represents the preset probability threshold; Indicates that the monthly cumulative consumption weight of renewable energy power reaches the standard value in the current month, W indicates the minimum consumption responsibility weight; B% indicates the percentage increase on the basis of the minimum consumption responsibility weight value that needs to be completed in this year in the province in which it is located.

Preferably, in the above-mentioned monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method, in step S2, the calculation model is:

表示本月可再生能源电力交易总需求量；

表示步骤S1中设立的本月可再生能源电力月度累计消纳权重的达标值；Q_t-1累计总表示累计至上月末所在省全社会用电总量；Q_t-1累计农表示累计至上月末所在省农业用电量；R_t-1累计总表示累计至上月末所在省消纳的可再生能源总电量；

表示预计本月所在省的全社会用电总量；

表示预计本月所在省省内可再生能源发电总量；

表示根据已签署的中长期合同本月所在省应受入的可再生能源电量。in,

Represents the total demand for renewable energy electricity trading in this month;

Represents the up-to-standard value of the monthly cumulative consumption weight of renewable energy power established in step S1; Q _{t-1 cumulative total} represents the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the province where it is accumulated to the end of the previous month; Q _{t-1 cumulative farmers} represents the cumulative total to the end of the previous month Agricultural electricity consumption in the province where it is located; R _{t-1 cumulative total} represents the total electricity consumption of renewable energy accumulated to the end of the previous month in the province where it is located;

Indicates the estimated total electricity consumption of the whole society in the province where it is located this month;

Indicates the estimated total renewable energy power generation in the province where it is located this month;

Indicates the renewable energy electricity that should be received by the province in this month according to the signed medium and long-term contracts.

Preferably, in the above-mentioned monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method, in step S3, the transaction decision items include a transaction period, a transaction type and a transaction power source type; wherein,

Attributes of different item categories under the transaction cycle include cycle code, cycle name and cycle time span;

Attributes of different item categories under the trading product include product code and trading product;

Attributes of different item categories under the transaction power type include power type code and transaction power type;

The constraints include the remaining time value of the province in which it is located this month from the end of the year assessment, the demand for different types of renewable energy power, the external power supply and the power channel transmission; among them,

Attributes of different condition categories under the remaining time value include condition code, condition content and condition meaning;

The attributes of the different condition categories under the demand quantity, the external power supply quantity and the power channel transmission quantity all include condition codes and condition contents.

Preferably, the above-mentioned monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method further includes the following steps:

S6: Count the actual consumption of renewable energy electricity in the month after the transaction data item is executed, and calculate the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight value up to the end of the month;

S7: Compare the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight value with the set renewable energy power monthly cumulative consumption weight up-to-standard value, evaluate whether the current month's renewable energy power consumption meets the standard according to the comparison result, and calculate the surplus or shortage of consumption.

Preferably, in the above-mentioned monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method, in step S6, the calculation method of the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight value is:

Among them, W _t represents the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight value of renewable energy power in this month; Q _{t cumulative total represents} the actual total electricity consumption of the whole society accumulated to the end of this month; Actual agricultural electricity consumption; R _{t-1 cumulative total} represents the total amount of renewable energy consumed by the province at the end of the previous month; R _{t internal} represents the actual total renewable energy power generation in the province in this month; R _{t transaction} represents The actual net receipt of renewable energy electricity in this month's transactions.

Preferably, in the above-mentioned monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method, in step S7, when the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight value is greater than or equal to the set up-to-standard value of the renewable energy power monthly cumulative consumption weight, it is determined that this month The electricity consumption of renewable energy reaches the standard; otherwise, it is determined that the electricity consumption of renewable energy in this month does not meet the standard and the consumption gap for this month is calculated.

Preferably, in the above-mentioned monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method, the calculation method of the consumption gap is:

Among them, R _{t is missing} represents the renewable energy electricity that needs to be consumed before the weight reaches the standard this month; Q _{t cumulative total represents} the actual total electricity consumption of the whole society in the province where it is accumulated to the end of this month; Provincial actual agricultural electricity consumption; R _{t-1 cumulative total} represents the total renewable energy consumption accumulated to the end of last month in the province; R _{t internal} represents the actual total renewable energy power generation in the province in this month; R _{t transaction} Indicates the actual net receipt of renewable energy electricity in this month's transactions.

According to another aspect of the present invention, a terminal device is also provided, comprising at least one processing unit and at least one storage unit,

Wherein, the storage unit stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processing unit, the processing unit is made to execute the steps of any one of the above-mentioned methods.

In general, compared with the prior art, the above technical solutions conceived by the present invention can achieve the following beneficial effects:

(1) The monthly cross-provincial renewable energy consumption method and terminal equipment provided by the present invention firstly set the monthly cumulative consumption weight of renewable energy power in the current month according to the supply of renewable energy power inside and outside the province and the transmission volume of power channels in the current month. value, and estimate the electricity demand of renewable energy in the current month according to the up-to-standard value and other related factors; select the optional transaction data items that meet multiple constraints by establishing a transaction model, and finally based on the estimated electricity demand of renewable energy and At least one transaction data item is selected according to the order of electricity purchase cost from low to high; the present invention dynamically adjusts the transaction data item actually executed each month under multiple constraints through a transaction model composed of constraints, transaction decision items and priority rules , improve the accuracy and rationality of the actual consumption of renewable energy power data, and improve the consumption capacity of renewable energy power under the premise of taking into account the cost of power purchase.

(2) The monthly inter-provincial renewable energy consumption method and terminal equipment provided by the present invention support the flexible association of constraints, transaction decision items and priority rules in the transaction model, and can be flexibly changed when the electricity consumption demand changes Correlation information between constraints, transaction decision items and priority rules, or add new constraints or transaction decision items, or change priority rules to accommodate new power consumption decision needs without redesigning new The transaction model realizes the reuse of transaction models and has strong versatility.

(3) The monthly cross-provincial renewable energy consumption method and terminal equipment provided by the present invention take into account various factors affecting the assessment of the renewable energy consumption weight, and realize the cross-provincial and cross-regional renewable energy power under multiple constraints. The transaction decision-making has provided an implementation plan for the provinces and autonomous regions to consume renewable energy in full or in excess, speed up the solution to the problem of abandoning water, wind, and light, and promote the formation of a long-term development mechanism led by renewable energy and electricity consumption.

Description of drawings

1 is a flowchart of a monthly cross-provincial renewable energy power consumption method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

2 is a detailed implementation process diagram of each process of the monthly inter-provincial renewable energy power consumption method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

3 is a flow chart of a transaction strategy for the current month transaction occurrence time period in the province provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

4 is a flowchart of a transaction strategy for different types of renewable energy power demand provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 5 is a flowchart of a transaction strategy for external power supply conditions and channel capabilities provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed ways

In order to make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention, but not to limit the present invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a monthly inter-provincial renewable energy power consumption method provided by this embodiment, and FIG. 2 is a detailed implementation of each process of the monthly inter-provincial renewable energy power consumption method provided by this embodiment. Process diagram; refer to Figures 1 and 2, the disposal method includes the following steps:

Step S1: Build a prediction model for the monthly cumulative consumption weight of renewable energy power reaching the standard value, collect the supply of renewable energy power inside and outside the province and the transmission volume of power channels in the current month, and input them into the prediction model to obtain the current month's renewable energy power supply in the province. The monthly cumulative consumption weight of renewable energy power reaches the standard value;

When implementing the power market management under the renewable energy power consumption guarantee mechanism, in the face of the minimum consumption responsibility weight set by the National Energy Administration, due to different resource endowments in each province, the supply of new energy fluctuates greatly over time, and the passage is occupied and blocked. The situation is different. If only the minimum consumption responsibility weight is considered every month, it may cause the assessment at the end of the year to fail to meet the standard. Therefore, the specific monthly consumption of renewable energy electricity needs to comprehensively consider the climatic conditions of the month, the supply of renewable energy power inside and outside the province, and the occupancy of relevant channels, etc. The province where the establishment is located, the monthly cumulative consumption weight of the up-to-standard value. In this embodiment, a prediction model is first established based on the supply of renewable energy power inside and outside the province and the occupancy of relevant channels in the current month. The prediction model is as follows:

1) If this month P(A1∩A2)≤80%, then

2) If this month P(A1∩A2)>80%, then

表示本月可再生能源电力月度累计消纳权重的达标值，W表示《关于建立健全可再生能源电力消纳保障机制的通知》中规定所在省本年度需完成的最低消纳责任权重。Among them, let “abundant renewable energy power supply” be event A1, and “sufficient power transmission channel capacity” be event A2; P(A1∩A2) represents the probability that events A1 and A2 occur at the same time;

Indicates the up-to-standard value of the monthly cumulative consumption weight of renewable energy power this month, and W indicates the minimum consumption responsibility weight that needs to be completed in this year in the province in which it is located in the "Notice on Establishing and Improving the Renewable Energy Electric Power Consumption Guarantee Mechanism".

At the beginning of each month, pre-judgment and evaluation are made based on the climatic conditions of the month, the supply of renewable energy power inside and outside the province, and the transmission capacity of power channels. According to the evaluation results, the establishment of the standard value can be divided into two situations:

1) If the probability of simultaneous occurrence of sufficient renewable energy power supply and sufficient power transmission channel capacity is below 80%, the compliance value is directly set as the province's annual minimum consumption weight;

2) If there is a high degree of confidence that the supply of renewable energy power and the capacity of power transmission channels are sufficient this month (probability exceeds 80%), it is recommended to set the compliance value to be higher than 10% of the provincial minimum annual consumption weight, that is Incremental consumption of renewable energy power will be carried out in advance this month to reduce the risk of insufficient renewable energy power supply at the end of the year, resulting in the failure of the target to be completed.

Step S2: Input the associated index of the monthly demand for renewable energy power into the pre-created calculation model to obtain the current month's demand for renewable energy power in the province;

The calculation model is as follows:

表示本月可再生能源电力交易总需求量，其中包含省外电量、超额消纳量以及绿证的交易需求；

表示步骤S1中设立的本月可再生能源电力月度累计消纳权重达标值；Q_t-1累计总表示累计至上月末所在省全社会用电总量；Q_t-1累计农表示累计至上月末所在省农业用电量；R_t-1累计总表示累计至上月末所在省消纳的可再生能源总电量，其中包括省内生产且消纳的可再生能源电量以及跨省区受入的可再生能源电量、超额消纳量和绿证对应的电量；

表示预计本月所在省的全社会用电总量；

表示预计本月所在省省内可再生能源发电总量；

表示根据已签署的长期交易合同(交易周期为1年及以上)以及中期交易合同(交易周期为1年以内、1个月及以上，如季度、月度等)，本月所在省应受入的可再生能源电量。in,

Indicates the total demand for renewable energy power trading in this month, including the demand for electricity from outside the province, excess consumption and green certificate trading demand;

Indicates that the monthly cumulative consumption weight of renewable energy power established in step S1 reaches the standard value; Q _{t-1 cumulative total represents} the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the province where it is accumulated to the end of the previous month; Provincial agricultural electricity consumption; R _{t-1 cumulative total} represents the total renewable energy electricity consumed by the province at the end of last month, including the renewable energy electricity produced and consumed within the province and the renewable energy electricity received across provinces , the excess consumption and the electricity corresponding to the green certificate;

Indicates the estimated total electricity consumption of the whole society in the province where it is located this month;

Indicates the estimated total renewable energy power generation in the province where it is located this month;

Indicates that according to the signed long-term transaction contracts (the transaction period is 1 year and above) and the medium-term transaction contract (the transaction period is within 1 year, 1 month and above, such as quarterly, monthly, etc.) Renewable energy electricity.

R_t-1累计总、

以及

均分别对应含水和非水两种情况；若t＝1(即1月)，则Q_t-1累计总、Q_t-1累计农、R_t-1累计总三项均为0；项替换为上一年度农业用电占全社会用电总量的比例。formula

R _{t-1 cumulative total} ,

as well as

Both correspond to the water-containing and non-water conditions respectively; if t=1 (ie, January), the three items of Q _{t-1 cumulative total} , Q _{t-1 cumulative agricultural total} , and R _{t-1 cumulative total} are all 0; The item is replaced by the proportion of agricultural electricity consumption in the total electricity consumption of the whole society in the previous year.

This step estimates the total demand for renewable energy power trading in the province in this month based on the existing data on renewable energy consumption and electricity consumption in the whole society, as well as the forecast data for this month, and assesses the weight of renewable energy consumption. The annual index is linked with the monthly cumulative consumption, and the annual assessment index is reasonably decomposed on a monthly basis to calculate the total demand for renewable energy power transactions in the province in the current month, which is convenient for reasonable allocation according to the climate, power demand and other influencing factors in different periods of each year. corresponding transaction plan.

Step S3: creating a transaction model, which is used to establish a correspondence between different constraints and transaction decision items, and sort transaction decision items under different constraints according to the correspondence and preset priority rules;

Among them, creating a transaction model specifically includes:

S31: Establish a first mapping relationship table between attributes of different project categories under each transaction decision item; the transaction decision items include transaction cycle, transaction type, and transaction power source type; wherein, the attributes of different item categories under the transaction cycle include cycle Code, period name and period time span; the properties of different item categories under the trading symbol include symbol code and trading symbol; the properties of different item categories under the trading power type include power type coding and trading power type;

For the transaction to be carried out this month, the transaction decision items include the transaction cycle, transaction variety and transaction power type.

a. Trading cycle

According to the time period of inter-provincial and inter-regional power trading, it is divided into three types: semi-annual trading, monthly trading, and short-term trading within a month.

Table 1 The first mapping relationship table between project category attributes under the transaction cycle

According to the "Basic Rules for Inter-provincial and Inter-regional Electricity Trading (Trial)" (Ban Shi Shi [2012] No. 151) issued by the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, the priority of execution and settlement of trading contracts is sorted according to the length of the contract trading cycle from high to low. (Except for accident emergency support transactions), the longer the transaction period, the higher the transaction priority; and when the transaction contract needs to be adjusted, the order of adjustment is reversed. That is, when the capacity of the transmission channel is insufficient or the supply and demand change, the transaction contract with a longer period is less susceptible to impact. Therefore, the priority rules under the transaction cycle are as follows: when time permits, it is recommended to sign a transaction contract with a longer cycle as much as possible to reduce the risk of contract power reduction in the current month.

b. Types of transactions

According to the content of the renewable energy power consumption guarantee mechanism document, each market entity that undertakes the consumption responsibility mainly completes the consumption by actually consuming renewable energy electricity. Its over-completed renewable energy power consumption and voluntary subscription of renewable energy green power certificates are two supplementary methods to complete the consumption. Therefore, there are three transaction methods for renewable energy consumption, including actual electricity transaction, excess consumption transaction, and green certificate transaction.

Table 2 The first mapping relationship table between the item category attributes under the trading symbol

Variety code trading variety K1 Actual electricity transaction K2 overconsumption transactions K3 Green certificate transaction

When conducting cross-province and cross-regional monthly transactions, the settlement cycle for excess consumption is one year; actual electricity transactions and green certificate transactions can be traded at any time. Over-consumption transactions can only be conducted at the end of the year, and generally when the province fails to complete the minimum consumption responsibility weight, the actual transaction process is greatly affected by the consumption of other provinces. Some provinces may have immature transaction systems and small transaction volumes. Therefore, the priority rules under the transaction types are as follows: in the actual transaction process, the actual transaction volume transaction is preferred, the green certificate transaction is selected second, and the final selection is selected. Overconsumption transactions.

c. Type of trading power

According to the power source type of inter-provincial and inter-regional power transaction, it is divided into hydropower transaction and new energy power transaction.

Table 3 The first mapping relationship table between the item category attributes under the transaction power type

The two weight indicators of water and non-water bring two kinds of consumption needs of total renewable energy electricity and non-water renewable energy electricity. The proportion of the latter in the former will affect the amount of hydropower and new energy electricity required for the month. and priority. At the same time, the peak and dry periods of power supply for different power types also vary within a year. The purchase of new energy power has an impact on both consumption weights, while the purchase of hydropower only affects the consumption weight of total renewable energy power.

S32: Establish a second mapping relationship table between attributes of different condition categories under each constraint condition; the constraint conditions include the remaining time value of the province where the current month is to be assessed at the end of the year, the demand for different types of renewable energy power, the external power supply Among them, the attributes of different condition categories under the remaining time value include condition code, condition content and condition meaning; demand for different types of renewable energy, external power supply and power channel transmission The properties of the different condition categories include condition code and condition content.

When making the above transaction decisions, it is necessary to evaluate and judge the following constraints according to the current situation:

a. The amount of time between the current month and the year-end assessment

When conducting monthly cross-provincial and cross-regional renewable energy transactions, it is necessary to consider the time adequacy between the current month and the year-end assessment. Condition category.

Table 4 The second mapping relationship table between the conditional category attributes under the remaining time value

conditional coding Conditional content Condition meaning T1 January-June plenty of time T2 July-October time is acceptable T3 November-December time is running out

The priority rules for each condition category under the constraint of the time adequacy of the current month to the year-end assessment are as follows: the time adequacy of the current month to the year-end assessment will mainly determine the selection of the trading cycle. Sign a multi-month renewable energy power trading contract to ensure the stable growth of renewable energy power consumption in the current and subsequent months; when the assessment near the end of the year, if there is still a gap in consumption, due to time constraints, priority will be given Make up for the gap through short-term transactions within the month or excess consumption, green certificate transactions, etc., to complete the annual renewable energy consumption weight indicator.

b. Renewable energy power demand corresponding to two types of weights (water/non-water)

The two weight indicators of water and non-water bring two consumption needs of total renewable energy and non-water renewable energy. When conducting monthly power transactions, it is necessary to weigh the consumption of renewable energy and non-water renewable energy. The amount of energy and electricity consumption, and its priority is sorted.

Table 5 The second mapping relationship table between the condition category attributes under the renewable energy power demand

The total electricity demand of renewable energy and the electricity demand of non-water renewable energy are calculated respectively according to the up-to-standard value of the two types of weights every month. The priority rules for each condition category under the constraint of renewable energy power demand are as follows: If the proportion of non-water renewable energy power demand in the total power demand is relatively high, priority will be given to carrying out non-water renewable energy power in the current month. The transaction of water renewable energy power; otherwise, the transaction plan can be determined comprehensively considering the demand for various types of power and the cost of power purchase.

c. Renewable energy power supply outside the province

The supply of renewable energy power is affected by environmental conditions such as climate and season, and varies greatly from month to month. The inter-provincial and inter-regional renewable energy consumption in the province in which it is located is directly affected by the supply of renewable energy outside the province, and it also affects the inter-provincial situation. The direct factor of whether the cross-regional transaction can be executed. According to the supply of renewable energy outside the province, it can be divided into two situations: sufficient supply of renewable energy outside the province and insufficient supply of renewable energy outside the province.

Table 6 The second mapping relationship table between the condition category attributes under the renewable energy power supply outside the province

conditional coding Conditional content S1 Adequate supply of renewable energy outside the province S2 Insufficient supply of renewable energy outside the province

d. Power transportation channel capacity

After the official implementation of the renewable energy power consumption guarantee mechanism, all provinces with low renewable energy power generation in the province will try to complete the assessment of the weight of consumption responsibility by increasing cross-provincial and cross-regional power purchase transactions. Possibly higher, transactions are more likely to be constrained by channel capabilities. When conducting monthly cross-provincial and cross-regional renewable energy power transactions, according to the capacity of the power transport channel, it can be divided into two types: sufficient power transport channel capacity and insufficient power transport channel capacity; When 60% of the total amount of electricity channel transportation, it can be considered that the capacity of the electricity transportation channel is sufficient.

Table 7 The second mapping relationship table between the condition category attributes under the power channel transportation volume

conditional coding Conditional content C1 Sufficient capacity of electric transport channel C2 Insufficient capacity of electric transport corridors

S33: According to the first mapping relationship table, the second mapping relationship table and the priority rule, establish the priority order of the item categories corresponding to different condition categories under each constraint condition, and generate a transaction model.

According to the above description, the trading strategy considers different trading conditions, and the trading model selects and sorts different trading decision items:

Table 8 Parameter definitions in the transaction model

conditional coding meaning t Condition: The amount of time between the current month and the year-end assessment d Condition: Renewable energy electricity demand corresponding to two types of weights (water/non-water) s Condition: Renewable energy power supply outside the province c Condition: Electric transport channel capacity trade_l Transaction Decision Item: Transaction Cycle trade_k Trading Decision Items: Trading Varieties trade_p Transaction Decision Item; Transaction Power Type

In the flowchart, ">" indicates the priority order of decision-making. For example, "L1>L2" indicates that when both L1 and L2 policies are optional, the L1 policy is preferred.

a. Trading strategy for the time period

For the time period in which the transaction occurs in the current month of the province, different time periods correspond to different order of transaction decision items (ie, transaction strategies). The corresponding transaction strategy process is shown in Figure 3: if the current month is from January to June (t=T1) , the trading cycle types that can be selected are semi-annual, monthly, and short-term within a month, with priority given to semi-annual and monthly transactions with long cycles. In terms of transaction varieties, in the first half of the year, there was no excess consumption in each province, so only the actual electricity transaction or green certificate transaction was considered; on the premise that the actual electricity transaction was feasible, the actual electricity transaction was given priority;

If the current month is July-October (t=T2), the selectable transaction cycle types are monthly and short-term within the month, and monthly transactions with longer cycles are given priority. In terms of transaction types, the probability of excess consumption in various provinces is also low during the period from July to October, so only the actual electricity transaction or green certificate transaction is also considered. If the actual electricity transaction is feasible, it is recommended to give priority to the actual electricity transaction. cost, supplemented by green certificate transactions;

If the current month is from November to December (t=T3), since the time for the year-end assessment is relatively short, it is recommended to consider only short-term transactions within the month in terms of the type of transaction cycle, so as to make up for the current month’s renewable energy demand gap as much as possible. In terms of transaction types, actual electricity transaction, excess consumption transaction and green certificate transaction can be selected. The options are sorted according to the electricity purchase cost, and the transaction plan with lower execution cost is selected.

b. Trading strategies for different types of renewable energy demand

For different types of renewable energy power demand, a transaction strategy adapted to the corresponding energy type is adopted. The corresponding transaction process is shown in Figure 4: If the total power demand of renewable energy, the proportion of non-water renewable energy power demand Above 50% (d=D1), priority will be given to trading non-water renewable energy this month;

If the electricity demand of non-water renewable energy accounts for less than 50% of the electricity demand from renewable energy sources (d=D2), the transaction plan shall be determined comprehensively considering the demand volume and electricity purchase cost of various types of electricity.

According to the renewable energy power resource endowment of the four central China provinces, the proportion of "50%" in the decision-making conditions can be adjusted. For Hubei and other provinces with more hydropower and less new energy power generation, the proportion can be appropriately reduced to increase the non-hydro renewable energy power received in inter-provincial transactions and ensure the completion of the non-hydro renewable energy consumption weight; for Henan Provinces with a large amount of their own new energy power generation have relatively low dependence on non-water renewable energy power outside the province, and this proportion can be appropriately increased, and the transaction plan can be decided more based on the power purchase cost to reduce costs. .

c. Trading strategies for external power supply and channel capacity

When conducting monthly cross-provincial and cross-regional renewable energy transactions, consider external power supply and channel capacity, and select different transaction types to ensure smooth transactions. The transaction strategy flow for external power supply and channel capacity is shown in Figure 5: When both external power supply and channel capacity are sufficient, actual power transaction, green certificate transaction and excess consumption transaction are all optional, among which the actual power is given priority. trade;

When there is any shortage of external power supply and channel capacity, it can only be traded by purchasing green certificates or excess consumption. Specifically, the selection is made according to the supply and price of the two in the current time period.

Step S4: Combine the sorted transaction decision items, filter out optional transaction data items that satisfy multiple constraints at the same time, and sort the multiple optional transaction data items according to the electricity purchase cost and priority rules to generate a transaction data queue;

Different trading strategies are selected according to the trading conditions of different situations. The set of all options is as follows:

trade _i ={[trade_l,trade_k,trade_p]|t,d,s,c},i=1,2,…N

In the formula, t is the decision condition - the time adequacy between the current month and the end of the year; d is the decision condition - the demand for renewable energy power corresponding to the two types of weights (water/non-water); s is the decision condition - renewable energy outside the province Energy and power supply situation; c is the decision condition - power transportation channel capacity; trade_l is the transaction decision item - transaction cycle; trade_k is the transaction decision item - transaction variety; _{trade_p} is the transaction decision item - transaction power type; , d, s, c The ith of the N alternative trading schemes of the four types of conditions.

After all optional trading schemes trade _i are determined, all schemes are sorted according to the priority of transaction decision items and power purchase cost in the above process, and the scheme with lower cost comes first. For a variety of transaction schemes with an acceptable power purchase cost gap, the scheme with a higher priority of the transaction decision item is sorted first, and a transaction data queue is generated.

Step S5: select and output at least one transaction data item from the transaction data queue according to the current month's demand for renewable energy in the province where the electricity purchase cost is from low to high;

Finally, according to the total demand calculated in step S2, a plurality of transaction data items with the highest ranking are output. The power grid company executes electricity consumption transactions according to the output transaction data items.

Step S6: After the settlement of all transactions carried out in this month is completed, the actual consumption of renewable energy electricity in this month is counted, and the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight value by the end of this month is calculated. The calculation formula is:

In the formula, W _t represents the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight of renewable energy power in this month; Q _{t cumulative total represents} the actual total electricity consumption of the whole society accumulated to the end of this month; Agricultural electricity consumption; _{the cumulative total of R t-1} represents the total renewable energy electricity consumed by the province where it is located until the end of the previous month, including the renewable energy electricity produced and consumed within the province and the renewable energy electricity received across provinces, Excessive consumption and the electricity corresponding to the green certificate; R _{t internal distribution} represents the actual total renewable energy power generation in the province in this month; R _{t transaction} represents the actual net receipt of renewable energy electricity in this month’s transactions, including provincial The electricity purchased from outside, the excess consumption and the electricity corresponding to the purchase of the green certificate.

In the formula, W _t , R _{t transaction} , R _{t-1 cumulative total} , and R _{t internal hair} all correspond to the water-containing and non-water situations, respectively.

Step S7: Compare the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight as of the end of this month with the weight up-to-standard value established at the beginning of the month, and evaluate the consumption level of this month;

证明本月的可再生能源电力消纳量完成情况达标；若未达到，则需进行以下工作：If by the end of this month, the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight W _t reaches or exceeds the weight standard value established at the beginning of the month

Prove that the electricity consumption of renewable energy in this month is up to the standard; if not, the following work needs to be done:

(1) Calculate the consumption gap for this month

The consumption gap of this month is the difference between the consumption weight established this month and the electricity consumption of the whole society in the assessment and the renewable energy electricity consumed this month. The calculation formula is:

Among them, R _{t is missing} represents the renewable energy electricity that needs to be consumed before the weight reaches the standard value; Q _{t cumulative total} represents the actual total electricity consumption of the whole society in the province where it is located at the end of this month; Q _{t cumulative farmers} represents the cumulative total until the end of this month The actual agricultural electricity consumption in the province; R _{t-1 cumulative total} represents the total renewable energy electricity consumed by the province at the end of the previous month, including the renewable energy electricity produced and consumed in the province and the renewable energy received across the province. Energy electricity, excess consumption and electricity corresponding to green certificates; R _{t internal distribution} represents the actual total renewable energy power generation in the province where it is located this month; R _{t transaction} represents the actual net receipt of renewable energy electricity in this month’s transactions, It includes the electricity purchased from outside the province, the excess consumption and the electricity corresponding to the purchase of green certificates.

R _{t is missing} in the formula, R _{t transaction} , R _{t-1 cumulative total} , and R _{t internal issue} all correspond to water-bearing and non-water situations, respectively.

(2) Analyze the reasons for the gap

a. The actual consumption does not meet the demand for renewable energy power trading this month

There is a gap between the actual electricity received in this month's transactions and the expected (contracted electricity), resulting in the final electricity obtained in the transaction being lower than the current month's transaction demand.

b. Incorrect estimation of electricity demand from renewable energy sources

(本月所在省省内可再生能源发电总量)、(根据已签署的中长期交易合同，本月所在省应受入的可再生能源电量)等数据进行预判，若预判与实际结果有差距，则可能导致月初低估了本月的交易需求量。导致交易需求量被低估的预判包括：When estimating the transaction demand for this month at the beginning of the month, due to the need to (The electricity consumption of the whole society in the province in this month),

(Total renewable energy power generation in the province where you are located this month), (According to the signed medium and long-term trading contracts, the province should receive renewable energy this month) and other data to make predictions, if there is a gap between the predictions and the actual results, it may lead to an underestimation of this month’s transaction demand at the beginning of the month. Predictions that lead to underestimation of transaction demand include:

即本月所在省实际全社会用电量高于估计值；

That is, the actual electricity consumption of the whole society in the province in this month is higher than the estimated value;

即本月所在省省内可再生能源实际发电量低于估计值；

That is, the actual power generation of renewable energy in the province where the province is located this month is lower than the estimated value;

即根据此前已签署的中长期合同，本月实际受入的可再生能源电量低于合同规定的交易电量。

That is, according to the previously signed medium and long-term contracts, the actual amount of renewable energy received this month is lower than the transaction amount specified in the contract.

(3) Implement the response plan:

a. Change the priority rules of the corresponding transaction decision items in the next month's transaction model, and give priority to the purchase of renewable energy power that matches the current month's shortfall power supply type;

b. According to the analysis in (2), if there is a gap caused by reason b, it is necessary to analyze the item with a large deviation between the estimate and the actual situation, find out the uncertain factors that have a greater impact on the item, and adjust the calculation model Optimization, to make more reasonable predictions and estimates in the coming months.

The method for monthly inter-provincial renewable energy power consumption provided by the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments. This embodiment is based on the above decision-making method to verify the cross-provincial and cross-regional renewable energy power transaction decision in a specific province in a certain month. Due to space limitations, this embodiment takes Hubei's November 2018 inter-provincial and inter-regional power transaction as an example to illustrate the monthly inter-provincial and inter-regional power transaction decision-making method for renewable energy consumption weight assessment.

S101, at the beginning of each month, according to the climatic conditions of the month, the supply of renewable energy power inside and outside the province, and the occupancy of relevant channels, etc., establish the up-to-standard value of the monthly cumulative consumption weight of the province where the province is located.

November is the dry season of hydropower, the amount of renewable energy received across provinces and regions will be greatly reduced, and the supply of renewable energy power will be tight. Therefore, the prediction result of the prediction model: that is, the probability of events A1 and A2 occurring at the same time is less than 80%. Set the current month The monthly cumulative consumption weight reaching the standard value is the minimum renewable energy consumption responsibility weight.

S102, according to the existing relevant data such as renewable energy consumption and electricity consumption of the whole society, as well as the forecast data for this month, estimate the total demand for renewable energy power trading in the province in this month.

Calculate the proportion of electricity demand from non-water renewable energy in the total demand for electricity from renewable energy trading. It is assumed that the proportion of electricity demand from non-water renewable energy sources is more than 50%.

S103: Judging and selecting appropriate transaction decision items according to decision conditions such as the time adequacy of the province where the province is located this month from the end of the year assessment, the demand for different types of renewable energy power, and external power supply and channel conditions, and determine all optional transaction decision items. Trading scheme, according to the total demand, select multiple trading schemes with higher priority and lower cost to execute transaction decision items.

(1) The trading strategy obtained after sorting the trading decision items under different constraints

a. Trading strategy for the time period

The current month is November (t=T3). Since the time for the year-end assessment is relatively short, it is recommended to consider only short-term transactions within the month in terms of the type of transaction cycle, so as to make up for the current month’s renewable energy demand gap as much as possible. In terms of transaction types, both actual electricity transaction and green certificate transaction can be selected. The options are sorted according to the electricity purchase cost, and the transaction plan with lower execution cost is selected.

b. Trading strategies for electricity demand from different types of renewable energy

According to the calculation result of S2, among the total electricity demand of renewable energy, the electricity demand of non-water renewable energy accounts for more than 50% (d=D1), and the transaction of non-water renewable energy will be given priority this month.

c. Trading strategies for external power supply and channel capacity

November is approaching the deadline for the annual assessment, and resources such as water and light are not abundant. Assuming that the external supply and channel capacity are insufficient, the actual electricity transaction is difficult, and the excess consumption can only be traded when the consumption is settled. Therefore, the transaction priority rules are green certificate transaction and actual electricity transaction.

(2) Optional transaction plan selection

To sum up, for the four trading conditions, there are the following trading strategies:

a. Transactions in the time period

For the trading cycle, short-term trading within a month is preferred, followed by monthly trading;

For transaction types, both actual electricity transaction and green certificate transaction can be used.

b. Trading of electricity demand from different types of renewable energy

For traded power types, priority is given to trading non-hydro renewable energy, followed by hydropower.

c. Transaction of external power supply and channel capacity

For trading varieties, green certificate trading is preferred, followed by actual electricity trading.

Combining the three situations, the priority order of trading strategies is:

Trading cycle: short-term trading within the month > monthly trading;

Type of transaction: green certificate transaction > actual electricity transaction;

Type of traded power source: non-hydro renewable energy power > hydro power.

Combine each transaction strategy, calculate the power purchase cost of each strategy, and sort each scheme according to the level of power purchase cost, with the scheme with the lower cost first. For a variety of transaction schemes with an acceptable power purchase cost gap, the scheme with a higher priority for the transaction decision item is ranked first. Finally, according to the total demand, execute the top-ranked multiple transaction plans.

This embodiment also provides a terminal device, which includes at least one processor and at least one memory, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor causes the processor to execute the above-mentioned monthly span The steps of the provincial renewable energy power consumption method. The type of processor and memory is not particularly limited, for example: the processor can be a microprocessor, a digital information processor, an on-chip programmable logic system, etc.; the memory can be a volatile memory, a non-volatile memory, or a combination thereof, etc. .

This embodiment also provides a computer-readable medium, which stores a computer program executable by a terminal device, and when the computer program runs on the terminal device, enables the terminal device to execute the above-mentioned monthly cross-provincial renewable energy Steps of a method of electricity consumption. Types of computer-readable media include, but are not limited to, storage media such as SD cards, U disks, fixed hard disks, and removable hard disks.

Those skilled in the art can easily understand that the above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent replacements and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention, etc., All should be included within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. A monthly trans-provincial renewable energy power consumption method is characterized by comprising the following steps:

s1: constructing a prediction model of the monthly accumulated consumption weight reaching standard value of the renewable energy power, collecting the supply quantity and the power channel transmission quantity of the renewable energy power inside and outside the province in the month, and inputting the collected supply quantity and the power channel transmission quantity into the prediction model to obtain the monthly accumulated consumption weight reaching standard value of the renewable energy power in the month of the province;

s2: inputting the correlation index of the monthly demand of the renewable energy power into a pre-established calculation model to obtain the monthly demand of the renewable energy power in the province;

s3: establishing a transaction model, wherein the transaction model is used for establishing corresponding relations between different constraint conditions and transaction decision items, and ordering the transaction decision items under different constraint conditions according to the corresponding relations and preset priority rules;

s4: combining the sorted transaction decision items, screening optional transaction data items which simultaneously meet a plurality of constraint conditions, and sorting the optional transaction data items according to the electricity purchasing cost and the priority rule to generate a transaction data queue;

s5: and selecting and outputting at least one transaction data item from the transaction data queue according to the renewable energy power demand of the current month of the province in the order of low to high electricity purchasing cost.

2. The monthly trans-provincial renewable energy power consumption method according to claim 1, wherein the step S3 of creating an exchange model specifically comprises:

establishing a first mapping relation table among attributes of different item categories under each transaction decision item;

establishing a second mapping relation table among the attributes of different condition types under each constraint condition;

and establishing the priority order of the item categories corresponding to different condition categories under each constraint condition according to the first mapping relation table, the second mapping relation table and a preset priority rule to generate a transaction model.

3. The monthly trans-provincial renewable energy power consumption method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein in step S1, the prediction model is:

1) if P (A1 ∩ A2) is less than or equal to A% in this month

2) If this month P (A1 ∩ A2)>A% is then

The method comprises the steps that an event A1 is set as the condition that the supply quantity of renewable energy power inside and outside province in the month is larger than a preset supply threshold value, an event A2 is set as the power channel delivery quantity larger than a preset delivery threshold value, P (A1 ∩ A2) represents the probability that the events A1 and A2 occur simultaneously, and A% represents a preset probability threshold value;

the monthly accumulated consumption weight of the renewable energy power in the current month reaches a standard value, and W represents the lowest consumption responsibility weight; b% represents the percentage increase over the lowest conquer liability weight value to be completed in the current year of the province in which it is located.

4. The monthly trans-provincial renewable energy power consumption method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein in step S2, the calculation model is:

wherein,

representing the total demand of renewable energy power trading in this month;a standard value representing the monthly cumulative consumption weight of the renewable energy power set in step S1; q_{t-1 cumulative total}The total electricity consumption of the whole society of the province of the last month is shown; q_{t-1 cumulative agriculture}Representing the accumulated agricultural electricity consumption of the province of the last month; r_{t-1 cumulative total}Representing the total quantity of the renewable energy consumed by the province and the province at the end of the month;

representing the total amount of power consumption of the whole society of the province in the month;

representing the total amount of renewable energy power generation in the province and the province of the month;the method represents the amount of renewable energy power which is required to be charged in the province of the month according to the signed medium-long term contract.

5. The monthly trans-provincial renewable energy power consumption method according to claim 2, wherein in step S3, the transaction decision items include transaction period, transaction varieties and transaction power type; wherein,

the attributes of different item categories under the transaction period comprise a period code, a period name and a period time span;

the attributes of different item categories under the transaction varieties comprise variety codes and transaction varieties;

the attributes of different item categories under the transaction power type comprise a power type code and the transaction power type;

the constraint conditions comprise a remaining time value assessed at the end of the month of the province, the demand quantity of different types of renewable energy power, the external power supply quantity and the power channel transmission quantity; wherein,

the attributes of different condition categories under the residual time value comprise condition codes, condition contents and condition meanings;

the attributes of different condition types under the demand, the external power supply and the power channel transmission all comprise condition codes and condition contents.

6. The monthly trans-provincial renewable energy power consumption method according to claim 1, further comprising the steps of:

s6: counting the renewable energy electric quantity actually consumed in the current month after the transaction data item is executed, and calculating an actual monthly accumulated consumption weight value till the end of the current month;

s7: and comparing the actual monthly accumulated consumption weight value with the set monthly accumulated consumption weight value of the renewable energy power to reach a standard value, evaluating whether the monthly accumulated consumption of the renewable energy power reaches the standard according to a comparison result, and calculating the shortage of the consumption.

7. The monthly trans-provincial renewable energy power consumption method according to claim 6, wherein in step S6, the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight value is calculated by:

wherein, W_tRepresenting the actual monthly accumulated consumption weight value of the renewable energy power in the month; q_{t cumulative total}The total electricity consumption of the whole society of the province in which the month is accumulated to the end of the month is shown; q_{t cumulative agricultural}Representing the actual agricultural electricity consumption accumulated to the end of the month; r_{t-1 cumulative total}Representing the total quantity of the renewable energy consumed by the province and the province at the end of the month; r_{T internal hair}Representing the total amount of electricity generated by the actual renewable energy sources in the province and the province of the month; r_{t transaction}Representing the actual net amount of renewable energy power in the monthly transaction.

8. The monthly trans-provincial renewable energy power consumption method according to claim 6, wherein in step S7, when the actual monthly cumulative consumption weight value is equal to or greater than the standard reaching value of the set monthly cumulative consumption weight of the renewable energy power, it is determined that the monthly cumulative consumption power of the renewable energy power reaches the standard; otherwise, judging that the renewable energy power consumption of the month does not reach the standard and calculating the consumption gap of the month.

9. The monthly trans-provincial renewable energy power consumption method according to claim 8, wherein the consumption gap is calculated by:

wherein R is_{Segment of t}Representing the renewable energy electric quantity which needs to be consumed when the weight of the month distance reaches the standard; q_{t cumulative total}The total electricity consumption of the whole society of the province in which the month is accumulated to the end of the month is shown; q_{t cumulative agricultural}Representing the actual agricultural electricity consumption accumulated to the end of the month; r_{t-1 cumulative total}Representing the total quantity of the renewable energy consumed by the province and the province at the end of the month; r_{T internal hair}Representing the total amount of electricity generated by the actual renewable energy sources in the province and the province of the month; r_{t transaction}Representing the actual net amount of renewable energy power in the monthly transaction.

10. A terminal device, characterized in that it comprises at least one processing unit, and at least one memory unit,

wherein the storage unit stores a computer program which, when executed by the processing unit, causes the processing unit to carry out the steps of the method of any of claims 1 to 9.

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