CN110795814A - Optimization method for simulating watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an optimization method for simulating a watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect, which comprises the following steps of: determining multi-effect factors, determining the levels of all factors, designing an orthogonal table, determining a mechanism model of the watershed non-point source pollution process, and executing an optimization simulation scheme; the invention introduces the orthogonal optimization method into the preparation of the optimization scheme for simulating the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect, greatly improves the working efficiency of the coupling simulation of the watershed non-point source pollution simulation model and the climatic change model, has more comprehensive simulation and comparative analysis, is beneficial to finding the root and the factors of the pollution, conveniently prepares a reasonable treatment scheme, is beneficial to more efficiently and reasonably controlling the pollution of the agricultural watershed non-point source, and plays a positive role in constructing the clean watershed.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of agricultural environmental pollution, in particular to an optimization method for simulating watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect.
Background
With the development of science and technology, the pollution problem of a drainage basin becomes a central importance, the main problems are influenced by agricultural non-point source pollution, long-term climate change and multiple interaction effects with peripheral drainage basin water flows, and in the prior art, the problems of single influence factor, lack of interaction effect simulation, low simulation efficiency, deficiency and the like are often considered in the simulation process of the drainage basin non-point source pollution.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems, the invention provides an optimization method for simulating the river basin non-point source pollution interaction effect, which is used for optimizing the simulated river basin non-point source pollution interaction effect, is favorable for finding the root and the factor of pollution, is convenient to formulate a reasonable treatment scheme, is favorable for more efficiently and reasonably controlling the pollution of the agricultural river basin non-point source, and plays a positive role in constructing a clean river basin.
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides an optimization method for simulating watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect, comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: determining multiple effect factors
Determining a specific drainage basin, and screening out 7 main factors as orthogonal optimization factors according to the characteristic analysis of drainage basin non-point source pollution influence factors, wherein the main factors are temperature, rainfall, climate change mode, greenhouse gas emission scene, water level monitoring well position, drainage basin boundary and external flow exchange and non-point source pollution simulation indexes;
step two: determining the level of each factor
Setting levels aiming at all factors in the step one according to the actual requirements and pollution source investigation of a research area: for two climate change factors, namely air temperature and rainfall, the level is set according to climate change data in 20 climate change modes and long-time sequence statistics of 150-year-day air temperature and rainfall in 1950-2099; meanwhile, selecting a greenhouse gas emission scene according to IPCC AR5 and setting 4 levels according to a typical emission path from low to high; in addition, selecting northwest, southwest, southeast and northeast patch areas of the research area as 4 levels according to the position of the water level monitoring well; then, setting 2 levels of no-flow exchange and flow exchange by taking the existence of flow exchange between the boundary of the research area and the outside as a factor; finally, selecting Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) according to the non-point source pollution simulation index and the actual pollution condition survey of the basin;
step three: designing orthogonal tables
Inputting the data obtained in the first step and the second step into statistical analysis software Minitab17, performing quality improvement and statistical analysis, completing mixed orthogonal optimization factors and level setting parts of the drainage basin surface source pollution interaction effect in Minitab17, selecting factor levels, and finally obtaining a mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the drainage basin surface source pollution interaction effect;
step four: model for determining mechanism of watershed non-point source pollution process
Selecting a complex mechanism model MIKESHE capable of simulating all physical processes of the river basin non-point source pollution according to the actual conditions of the river basin, and realizing the simulation of the pollution process;
step five: executing an optimized simulation scheme
And in the simulation of the pollution process in the fourth step, executing the mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the watershed surface source pollution interaction effect obtained in the third step to complete the mechanism model simulation process after orthogonal optimization.
The further improvement lies in that: the orthogonal optimization factor in the step one, namely the number of the header columns, is a representative point and has the characteristics of uniform dispersion and neatness and comparability.
The further improvement lies in that: in the second step, as for the variation factors of the air temperature, the variation modes of 150-year-day-average lowest temperature (low-temperature climate mode), highest temperature (high-temperature climate mode), average air temperature (average temperature mode) and middle (median, middle temperature mode) air temperature in 20 climate variation modes are selected, and are defined as 4 levels taking the air temperature as the factor, and represent long-term extreme and normal climates taking the air temperature as the factor.
The further improvement lies in that: in the second step, as for the rainfall variation factor, a climate variation mode of 150-year-day-average minimum rainfall (dry climate mode), maximum rainfall (wet climate mode), average rainfall (average rainfall mode), and intermediate rainfall (median, intermediate rainfall mode) among 20 climate variation modes is specifically selected and defined as 4 levels based on the rainfall factor.
The further improvement lies in that: in the second step, 4 levels set according to IPCC AR5 from low to high of greenhouse gas emission scenes are RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5.
The further improvement lies in that: in the third step, the meter head in the mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect is designed into the boundary and the outside whether flow exchange exists or not, a rainfall change mode, an air temperature change mode, a greenhouse gas emission scene, a water level monitoring well position and a non-point source pollution simulation index.
The further improvement lies in that: in the third step, the mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect is as follows: and L is the code number of an orthogonal table, n is the number of times of model simulation, t is the horizontal number, c is the number of columns, the number of factors arranged most is the number of the columns, and the horizontal numbers of the columns can be unequal.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the orthogonal optimization method is introduced into the preparation of the optimization scheme for simulating the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect, 2 effects can be realized, one is that the times of the optimization model to achieve the optimal scheme to be completed are reduced, so that the optimization efficiency is improved, the invention prepares the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect simulation scheme which considers 7 factors, wherein 5 factors are respectively 4 levels, 1 factor is 2 levels, and 1 factor is 20 levels, the simulation scheme can be completed only 640 times after the orthogonal optimization design, and is about 1/64 times of the original times, so that the working efficiency of coupling simulation of the watershed non-point source pollution simulation model and the climatic change model is greatly improved; and secondly, the simulation and comparative analysis of the multi-factor interaction effect of the drainage basin non-point source pollution five-factor four-level 1-factor 20 level can be realized under a 'uniformly dispersed, neatly comparable' scheme, and meanwhile, the simulation of the drainage basin non-point source pollution interaction effect is optimized by using the method, so that the pollution source and factor can be found, a reasonable treatment scheme can be conveniently formulated, the pollution of the agricultural drainage basin non-point source can be controlled more efficiently and reasonably, and the method plays a positive role in building a clean drainage basin.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical means, objectives and functions of the invention easy to understand, the invention will be further described with reference to the following embodiments.
The embodiment provides an optimization method for simulating a watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect, which comprises the following specific steps:
the method comprises the following steps: determining multiple effect factors
Determining a specific drainage basin, screening out 7 main factors as orthogonal optimization factors, namely the number of gauge head columns, which are representative points and have the characteristics of uniform dispersion and neatness and comparability according to characteristic analysis of drainage basin non-point source pollution influence factors, wherein the 7 main factors are temperature, rainfall, climate change modes, greenhouse gas emission scenes, water level monitoring well positions, drainage basin boundaries and external flow exchange or not and non-point source pollution simulation indexes;
step two: determining the level of each factor
Setting levels aiming at all factors in the step one according to the actual requirements and pollution source investigation of a research area: for two climate change factors of air temperature and rainfall, setting the levels of the climate change factors according to climate change data in 20 climate change modes and long-time sequence statistics of 150-year-day air temperature and rainfall in 1950-2099, specifically selecting the climate change modes of 150-year-day-average lowest temperature (low-temperature climate mode), highest temperature (high-temperature climate mode), average air temperature (average temperature mode) and middle (middle-digit, middle-temperature mode) air temperature in the 20 climate change modes as the temperature change factors, defining the climate change modes as 4 levels taking the air temperature as the factor, representing long-term extreme and normal climates taking the air temperature as the factor, and specifically selecting 150-year-day-average lowest rainfall (dry climate mode), highest rainfall (climate wetting mode), average rainfall (average rainfall mode) in the 20 climate change modes as the rainfall change factors, And a climate change pattern of intermediate (median, intermediate rainfall pattern) rainfall, defined as 4 levels in terms of rainfall factors; meanwhile, 4 levels, namely RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, are set according to the greenhouse gas emission scene selected by IPCC AR5 from low to high according to the typical emission path; in addition, selecting northwest, southwest, southeast and northeast patch areas of the research area as 4 levels according to the position of the water level monitoring well; then, setting 2 levels of no-flow exchange and flow exchange by taking the existence of flow exchange between the boundary of the research area and the outside as a factor; finally, selecting Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) according to the non-point source pollution simulation index and the actual pollution condition survey of the basin;
step three: designing orthogonal tables
Inputting the data obtained in the first step and the second step into statistical analysis software Minitab17 for quality improvement and statistical analysis, completing mixed orthogonal optimization factors and level setting part of watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect in Minitab17, selecting factor levels, as shown in table 1:
table 1 hybrid orthogonal optimization factors and horizontal settings considering watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect
(wherein, blank cell indicates no item)
Then, using L as the code of the orthogonal table, n as the number of times of model simulation, t as the horizontal number, c as the column number, arranging the most number of factors, and designing the head of the table as the boundary and the outside whether to have flow exchange, rainfall change mode, air temperature change mode, greenhouse gas emission situation, water level monitoring well position and surface source pollution simulation index, and finally obtaining the mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the watershed surface source pollution interaction effect, as shown in table 2:
table 2 hybrid orthogonal optimization header design 20 xl 32 considering watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect
Step four: model for determining mechanism of watershed non-point source pollution process
Selecting a complex mechanism model MIKESHE capable of simulating all physical processes of the river basin non-point source pollution according to the actual conditions of the river basin, and realizing the simulation of the pollution process;
step five: executing an optimized simulation scheme
And in the simulation of the pollution process in the fourth step, executing the mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the watershed surface source pollution interaction effect obtained in the third step to complete the mechanism model simulation process after orthogonal optimization.
The orthogonal optimization method is introduced into the preparation of the optimization scheme for simulating the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect, 2 effects can be realized, one is to reduce the times of the optimization model to achieve the optimal scheme, so that the optimization efficiency is improved, the invention prepares the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect simulation scheme which considers 7 factors, wherein 5 factors are respectively 4 levels, 1 factor is 2 levels, and 1 factor is 20 levels, and the simulation can be completed only 640 times after the orthogonal optimization design, so that the working efficiency of the coupling simulation of the watershed non-point source pollution simulation model and the climatic change model is greatly improved; and secondly, the simulation and comparative analysis of the multi-factor interaction effect of the drainage basin non-point source pollution five-factor four-level 1-factor 20 level can be realized under a 'uniformly dispersed, neatly comparable' scheme, and meanwhile, the simulation of the drainage basin non-point source pollution interaction effect is optimized by using the method, so that the pollution source and factor can be found, a reasonable treatment scheme can be conveniently formulated, the pollution of the agricultural drainage basin non-point source can be controlled more efficiently and reasonably, and the method plays a positive role in building a clean drainage basin.
The foregoing illustrates and describes the principles, general features, and advantages of the present invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, which are described in the specification and illustrated only to illustrate the principle of the present invention, but that various changes and modifications may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, which fall within the scope of the invention as claimed. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.
Claims (7)
1. An optimization method for simulating a watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: determining multiple effect factors
Determining a specific drainage basin, and screening out 7 main factors as orthogonal optimization factors according to the characteristic analysis of drainage basin non-point source pollution influence factors, wherein the main factors are temperature, rainfall, climate change mode, greenhouse gas emission scene, water level monitoring well position, drainage basin boundary and external flow exchange and non-point source pollution simulation indexes;
step two: determining the level of each factor
Setting levels aiming at all factors in the step one according to the actual requirements and pollution source investigation of a research area: for two climate change factors, namely air temperature and rainfall, the level is set according to climate change data in 20 climate change modes and long-time sequence statistics of 150-year-day air temperature and rainfall in 1950-2099; meanwhile, selecting a greenhouse gas emission scene according to IPCC AR5 and setting 4 levels according to a typical emission path from low to high; in addition, selecting northwest, southwest, southeast and northeast patch areas of the research area as 4 levels according to the position of the water level monitoring well; then, setting 2 levels of no-flow exchange and flow exchange by taking the existence of flow exchange between the boundary of the research area and the outside as a factor; finally, selecting Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) according to the non-point source pollution simulation index and the actual pollution condition survey of the basin;
step three: designing orthogonal tables
Inputting the data obtained in the first step and the second step into statistical analysis software Minitab17, performing quality improvement and statistical analysis, completing mixed orthogonal optimization factors and level setting parts of the drainage basin surface source pollution interaction effect in Minitab17, selecting factor levels, and finally obtaining a mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the drainage basin surface source pollution interaction effect;
step four: model for determining mechanism of watershed non-point source pollution process
Selecting a complex mechanism model MIKESHE capable of simulating all physical processes of the river basin non-point source pollution according to the actual conditions of the river basin, and realizing the simulation of the pollution process;
step five: executing an optimized simulation scheme
And in the simulation of the pollution process in the fourth step, executing the mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the watershed surface source pollution interaction effect obtained in the third step to complete the mechanism model simulation process after orthogonal optimization.
2. The optimization method for simulating the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect according to claim 1, wherein the optimization method comprises the following steps: the orthogonal optimization factor in the step one, namely the number of the header columns, is a representative point and has the characteristics of uniform dispersion and neatness and comparability.
3. The optimization method for simulating the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect according to claim 1, wherein the optimization method comprises the following steps: in the second step, as for the variation factors of the air temperature, the variation modes of 150-year-day-average lowest temperature (low-temperature climate mode), highest temperature (high-temperature climate mode), average air temperature (average temperature mode) and middle (median, middle temperature mode) air temperature in 20 climate variation modes are selected, and are defined as 4 levels taking the air temperature as the factor, and represent long-term extreme and normal climates taking the air temperature as the factor.
4. The optimization method for simulating the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect according to claim 1, wherein the optimization method comprises the following steps: in the second step, as for the rainfall variation factor, a climate variation mode of 150-year-day-average minimum rainfall (dry climate mode), maximum rainfall (wet climate mode), average rainfall (average rainfall mode), and intermediate rainfall (median, intermediate rainfall mode) among 20 climate variation modes is specifically selected and defined as 4 levels based on the rainfall factor.
5. The optimization method for simulating the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect according to claim 1, wherein the optimization method comprises the following steps: in the second step, 4 levels set according to IPCC AR5 from low to high of greenhouse gas emission scenes are RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5.
6. The optimization method for simulating the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect according to claim 1, wherein the optimization method comprises the following steps: in the third step, the design of the gauge heads in the mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect is arranged to be whether the flow exchange between the boundary and the outside exists or not, a rainfall change mode, an air temperature change mode, a greenhouse gas emission scene, a water level monitoring well position and a non-point source pollution simulation index.
7. The optimization method for simulating the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect according to claim 1, wherein the optimization method comprises the following steps: in the third step, the mixed orthogonal optimization design table of the watershed non-point source pollution interaction effect is as follows: and L is the code number of an orthogonal table, n is the number of times of model simulation, t is the horizontal number, c is the number of columns, the number of factors arranged most is the number of the columns, and the horizontal numbers of the columns can be unequal.
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