CN102799772A - Air quality forecast oriented sample optimization method - Google Patents

Air quality forecast oriented sample optimization method Download PDF

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CN102799772A
CN102799772A CN2012102288175A CN201210228817A CN102799772A CN 102799772 A CN102799772 A CN 102799772A CN 2012102288175 A CN2012102288175 A CN 2012102288175A CN 201210228817 A CN201210228817 A CN 201210228817A CN 102799772 A CN102799772 A CN 102799772A
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meteorological factor
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CN102799772B (en
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刘永红
余志�
徐伟嘉
蔡铭
朱倩茹
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Guangdong Fundway Technology Co., Ltd.
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National Sun Yat-sen University
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Abstract

The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing an air quality forecast oriented sample optimization method which is high in forecast accuracy and good in adaptability. The method comprises the following steps: (1) determining relevant parameters of sample optimized screening, which is concretely implemented as follows: (1.1) determining a meteorological factor weight matrix by using a method for carrying out comprehensive analysis on pollutant concentrations and meteorological factors; (1.2) determining a threshold matrix by using an orthogonal experimental method; and (1.3) determining a sample size by using an experiment checking method; and (2) carrying out optimized screening on samples by using the determined parameters, which is concretely implemented as follows: (2.1) screening out samples with a meteorological similarity reaching a threshold range; (2.2) screening out samples with an overall meteorological similarity reaching the threshold range; and (2.3) screening out samples with a meteorological background which has the highest similarity with the meteorological background at the forecast date.

Description

Sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality
Technical field
The invention belongs to the environmental forecasting field, particularly air quality prediction field.
Background technology
From the nineties in 20th century, artificial neural network begins to be applied to air quality prediction field.Artificial neural network plays the effect of data-driven in the prediction of air quality process.Calculate and draw the output layer neuron by input layer through neural network structure.Neural network structure is adjusted through the learning process of historical data and is finally confirmed.
Improve constantly along with what forecast precision required, the use and the improvement of neural network are studied also in progressively development.The BP neural network is a kind of artificial neural network that utilizes error backpropagation algorithm; Through continuous repetition propagated forward and back-propagating process; Satisfy termination condition until each training mode; Then study finishes, thereby utilizes the network structure of accomplishing after learning, and draws according to prediction day input neuron information to predict the outcome.
See that from the aspect of modelling the factor of the e-learning that affects the nerves and generalization ability mainly contains three: network topology structure, learning algorithm and learning sample.Aspect the improvement of forecasting procedure, mainly concentrating on network structure and the learning algorithm, many scholars have done many researchs, have improved the precision of prediction of network to a certain extent, have obtained certain achievement.But the raising to prediction of air quality model prediction degree of accuracy after the improvement of network structure and learning algorithm acquires a certain degree just limits to some extent.So outside to network structure and learning algorithm improvement, the selection of learning sample just becomes the final factor of decision network mapping and generalization ability.Because the selection of learning sample makes learning sample representative, can remove unnecessary interference, reaches the purpose of the excellent product of excellent kind.Say from physical angle; Influencing the atmosphere pollution diffusion is meteorological condition with the principal element of carrying; Foundation becomes primary selection based on the sample optimization method of meteorological similarity criterion; Because different meteorological factors have different influences to pollutant levels, the interaction between meteorological factor, the comprehensive weather environment that forms also have Different Effects to pollutant, cause inconstant corresponding relation between meteorological Changing Pattern and pollutant levels.Polynary meteorologic factor is moulded various meteorological space, and there is different influences in different meteorological spaces to the transmission and the diffusion of pollutant.The similarity in meteorological space has regular reference to the variation of pollutant levels.When carrying out prediction of air quality, if the meteorological space of seeking suitablely, the internal relation between a plurality of physical quantitys and pollutant has just had reference.Select suitable sample set to major influence factors, make forecast work have more specific aim, improved network mapping and generalization ability, may ultimately reach the purpose that improves the prediction of air quality degree of accuracy.
Summary of the invention
The technical matters that the present invention solves provide a kind of forecast precision high, the good sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality with strong points of adaptivity.
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the technical scheme that the present invention adopts is: a kind of sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality is provided, it is characterized in that, may further comprise the steps:
(1) confirm the correlation parameter of sample optimization screening, its specifically:
(11) adopt pollutant levels and meteorological factor analysis by synthesis method to confirm the meteorological factor weight matrix, its specifically:
(111) obtain meteorological factor weighted value under the pollutant rise and fall sight;
(112) obtain meteorological factor weighted value under the serious and slight sight of pollutant;
(113) related coefficient of calculating pollutant quality concentration and meteorological factor;
(114) calculate the initial weight value of each meteorological factor, set up weight matrix;
(12) adopt orthogonal experiment method to confirm threshold matrix;
(13) confirm sample size;
(2) filter out the sample of optimization, its specifically:
(21) filter out each meteorological similarity and reach the sample in the threshold range;
(22) filter out overall meteorological similarity and reach the sample in the threshold range;
(23) filter out and predict day the highest sample of meteorological background similarity.
The concrete steps of said step (111) are:
(1111) obtain sight meteorological factor representative data once; The up-down value that is pollutant concentration today and concentration contrast yesterday respectively more than 0.05mg/m3 and-average and maximal value, minimum value and the mean value of analyzing this meteorological factor in the period of interim each meteorological factor during below the 0.05mg/m3 two; Be upward period mean value , downward period mean value and maximal value , minimum value and the mean value of analyzing the period, wherein is the meteorological factor label;
(1112) numerical value normalization is handled, and the utilization following formula is handled,
(1113) calculate meteorological factor change degree, ;
(1114) calculate weighted value; ; Wherein is the meteorological factor change degree, and is the meteorological factor species number.
The concrete steps of said step (112) are:
(1121) obtain two times meteorological factor representative datas of sight; The API value that is pollutant is maximal value, minimum value and the mean value of this meteorological factor in the average of each meteorological factor more than 100 and in two periods below 20 and analysis period respectively; Be seriously polluted mean value in period , pollute slight mean value in period and maximal value , minimum value and the mean value of analysis period, wherein is the meteorological factor label;
(1122) numerical value normalization is handled, and the utilization following formula is handled,
(1123) calculate meteorological factor change degree, ;
(1124) calculate weighted value; ; Wherein is the meteorological factor change degree, and is the meteorological factor species number.
The related coefficient of pollutant quality concentration and meteorological factor is described in the said step (113):
; In the formula, is the meteorological factor label; meteorological factor species number; is pollutant quality concentration value; is pollutant quality concentration mean value; is the meteorological factor value; is meteorological factor mean value.
The initial weight value of each meteorological factor is described in the said step (114):
Where, is the correlation coefficient; and , respectively under scenario one and scenario two weight values ??calculated.
The concrete steps of step (12) are:
(121) confirm that experimental index is model prediction result's a absolute error value;
(122) select factor, decide level, need to confirm the experimental factor investigated according to the result of S1 step weight matrix, in this patent, promptly choose the big meteorologic factor of pollutant levels weighing factor value as experimental factor, and draft the level of each factor;
(123) design the orthogonal table gauge outfit, experimental factor is filled into the row of orthogonal table respectively;
(124) insert each level numeral the row of orthogonal table;
(125) value of calculating , wherein be row factor pairing test index of level with;
(126) calculate the mean value of the same level of each factor, is the mean value of
(127) calculate the extreme difference of each factor
denotes Column factor in its range of variation within the range test indicators;
(128) optimal combination is confirmed excellent level according to the mean value of each factor level.
The method of definite employing experimental check of said step (13) sample size adopts a plurality of sample sizes to make an experiment respectively to every kind of pollutant, chooses a best sample size of model prediction effect, and promptly precision of prediction is the highest.
The screening mechanism of said step (2) Screening Samples is similar with meteorology to be criterion.
The concrete steps of said step (2) are:
(21) filter out each meteorological similarity and all reach the sample in the assign thresholds scope, concrete grammar is:
Sample must satisfy following formula:
; Wherein,
In the formula, is the prediction meteorological factor value of day;
is the meteorological factor value of sample;
is the meteorological similarity between sample and prediction day each meteorological factor;
is the meteorological factor label;
is the threshold value of each meteorological factor screening; Form initial threshold matrix , the threshold value in this matrix can be according to the dynamic change of sample demand;
(22) filter out overall meteorological similarity and reach the sample in certain threshold range, the sample that filters out must satisfy following formula:
; Wherein,
In the formula, is overall meteorological similarity;
is the threshold value of overall meteorological similarity screening;
is the weight of each meteorological factor of sample; Form weight matrix , reflect that this meteorologic factor is to the pollutant levels influence degree;
is the number of meteorological factor;
(23) filter out and predict day the highest bar sample of meteorological background similarity.The sample that filters out must satisfy following formula:
In the formula, is the ascending order sample row with overall meteorological similarity ordering;
is the sequence number of sample in the sample row after sorting;
is the sample size of demand.
Compare with existing prediction of air quality method based on neural network, three layers of sample of meteorological similarity criterion are optimized screening technique has the following advantages the prediction of air quality of artificial neural network:
1, the sample optimization method to every kind of pollutant all pointed and practicality.Identical meteorological spatial field is different to the change in concentration influence of different pollutants.Every kind of pollutant is the characteristic meteorological factor of influential its change in concentration all, and they are to the pollutant effects degree varies.Through the characteristic meteorological factor of every kind of pollutant of definite influence and to the pollutant effects degree, the sample of optimization will have more specific aim.
2, the sample optimization method changes pointed to prediction day pollutant levels.The meteorological spatial field of different times exists than big-difference, although period is close, owing to receive the influence of cold air, typhoon or other special meteorologies, the meteorological spatial field on close date also may not be identical.To predict day same day and background meteorology thereof as optimizing criterion, through in historical data base, searching relative meteorological condition, choose the most close meteorological spatial field, set up forecasting model with this.As far as prediction day pollutant situation of change, will have more specific aim.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is that three layers of sample are optimized screening process;
Fig. 2 is a ground floor screening sample flow process;
Fig. 3 is a second layer screening sample flow process;
Fig. 4 is the 3rd a layer of screening sample flow process;
Fig. 5 is the orthogonal experiments analysis process;
Fig. 6 is that weight matrix is confirmed method flow.
Embodiment
Come the present invention is further specified in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment.
The present invention provides a kind of sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality, it is characterized in that, may further comprise the steps:
(1) confirm the correlation parameter of sample optimization screening, its specifically:
(11) adopt pollutant levels and meteorological factor analysis by synthesis method to confirm the meteorological factor weight matrix, its specifically:
(111) obtain meteorological factor weighted value under the pollutant rise and fall sight;
(112) obtain meteorological factor weighted value under the serious and slight sight of pollutant;
(113) related coefficient of calculating pollutant quality concentration and meteorological factor;
(114) calculate the initial weight value of each meteorological factor, set up weight matrix;
(12) adopt orthogonal experiment method to confirm threshold matrix;
(13) confirm sample size;
(2) Screening Samples obtains the sample of optimizing.
Present invention is described below in conjunction with real example: prepare data: environment automatic monitoring station, somewhere PM10 mass concentration, meteorologic factor (temperature, air pressure, wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, rainfall amount, relative humidity).
(1) sample optimization screening correlation parameter is confirmed
(11): the confirming of weight matrix
(111): pollutant rise and fall sight meteorological factor weighted value
(1111): the meteorological factor typical value is calculated as follows:
Table 1 meteorological factor typical value
(1112): numerical value normalization is calculated
(1113): the meteorological factor change degree calculates
(1114): weighted value result of calculation
Go on foot meteorological factor weighted value under this sight of acquisition through above four:
The meteorological factor weighted value of table 2 in polluting rising and decline sight
w1i Temperature The proxima luce (prox. luc) temperature Air pressure Proxima luce (prox. luc) air pressure Wind speed The proxima luce (prox. luc) wind speed Wind direction
PM10 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.03 0.20 0.02 0.02
w1i The proxima luce (prox. luc) wind direction Solar radiation The proxima luce (prox. luc) solar radiation Rainfall amount The proxima luce (prox. luc) rainfall amount Humidity Proxima luce (prox. luc) humidity
PM10 0.15 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.06 0.10
(112): the analysis in seriously polluted and slight period
(1121): the meteorological factor typical value is calculated as follows:
Table 3 meteorological factor typical value
(1122): numerical value normalization is calculated
(1123): the meteorological factor change degree calculates
(1124): weighted value result of calculation
Go on foot meteorological factor weighted value under this sight of acquisition through above four:
The meteorological factor weighted value of table 4 in seriously polluted and slight scenario analysis
w2i Temperature The proxima luce (prox. luc) temperature Air pressure Proxima luce (prox. luc) air pressure Wind speed The proxima luce (prox. luc) wind speed Wind direction
PM10 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.13 0.11 0.03
w2i The proxima luce (prox. luc) wind direction Solar radiation The proxima luce (prox. luc) solar radiation Rainfall amount The proxima luce (prox. luc) rainfall amount Humidity Proxima luce (prox. luc) humidity
PM10 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.34 0.17 0.03 0.03
(113): related coefficient result of calculation
Table 5 pollutant levels and meteorological factor related coefficient
Related coefficient Temperature The proxima luce (prox. luc) temperature Air pressure Proxima luce (prox. luc) air pressure Wind speed The proxima luce (prox. luc) wind speed Wind direction
PM10 -0.09 -0.19 0.30 0.39 -0.42 -0.42 0.01
Related coefficient The proxima luce (prox. luc) wind direction Solar radiation The proxima luce (prox. luc) solar radiation Rainfall amount The proxima luce (prox. luc) rainfall amount Humidity Proxima luce (prox. luc) humidity
PM10 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.04 0.05 -0.27 -0.37
(114): confirm weight matrix
Carry out the screening of influence factor and the correction of weight through overtesting, set up the weight matrix that sample is optimized at last.
Table 6 sample is optimized weight matrix
(12): the confirming of threshold matrix
(121): the best of clear and definite experiment purpose-find out sample optimization makes up with it; Confirm experimental index--with forecast model absolute error AE as test index.
(122): select factor, decide level.Result according to weight matrix confirms four experimental factors: wind, relative humidity, rainfall grade, air pressure, be the nonlinear relationship of investigation factor and PM10 error prediction model, and respectively select three levels.As shown in table 7.
Table 7 factor level table
(123): selected orthogonal table, design gauge outfit.The orthogonal table of selecting for use is L9 (34), and four factors are arranged in A, B, C, D four respectively and list.
(124): level translation, establishment experimental program.Do 9 tests altogether, testing program is as shown in table 8.
(125): make an experiment by scheme, record test index end value is seen table 8 " model AE " row, and experimental result is analyzed.Process and result are as shown in table 8, calculate value.
As; The value of K I first row represent under the first row factor (A wind) the I level pairing test index with; Be 0.0127+0.0119+0.0128=0.0374; The value of K III the 2nd row represent under secondary series factor (B humidity) the II level pairing experimental index and, i.e. 0.0128+0.0126+0.0115=0.0369.And the like.
(126): the mean value that calculates the same level of each factor.
(127): calculate the extreme difference of each factor, according to the primary and secondary influence order of extreme difference decision factor.
(128): select excellent combination.Mean value according to each factor level is confirmed excellent level.As for Elements C (rainfall grade), < < the k III is so optimal level is an II to the k I to have the k II.And the like, the final optimum combination of confirming is an A III B III C II D I.
Table 8 is optimized threshold value to the sample of PM10 forecast model and is selected testing program and interpretation of result
Wherein the proxima luce (prox. luc) threshold value increases on the basis of experimental result to some extent, and except that the rainfall grade increases 1, all the other parameters all increase by 2.Setting the population sample threshold value is 5.Set up the threshold matrix that sample is optimized thus, as shown in table 9.
Table 9 sample is optimized threshold matrix
(13): the confirming of sample size
Test with different sample sizes, obtaining sample size is that 330 o'clock precision are the highest, is 330 so confirm to be used for training the sample size of PM10 neural network.
(2) sample optimization screening
(21): according to the method for step 21 sample is carried out ground floor optimization screening, promptly filter out each meteorologic factor (today wind, rainfall today, rainfall yesterday, yesterday air pressure, yesterday humidity) similarity and all reach the sample of (seeing table 9) in the given threshold range.
(22): according to the method for step 22 the initial sample subclass that obtained in the last step is carried out second layer optimization screening, promptly filter out the sample that overall meteorological similarity reaches in the defined threshold scope (≤5).
(23): it is the ascending order arrangement of order standard that the double optimization sample subclass that obtained in the last step is carried out with s; Get sample sequence Q,, then all keep if sample number is less than 330; If more than 330, then filter out and predict day the highest preceding 330 samples of meteorological background similarity.
So far, accomplish whole work of screening sample.

Claims (10)

1. the sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality is characterized in that, may further comprise the steps:
(1) confirm the correlation parameter of sample optimization screening, its specifically:
(11) adopt pollutant levels and meteorological factor analysis by synthesis method, confirm the meteorological factor weight matrix, its specifically:
(111) obtain meteorological factor weighted value under the pollutant rise and fall sight;
(112) obtain meteorological factor weighted value under the serious and slight sight of pollutant;
(113) related coefficient of calculating pollutant quality concentration and meteorological factor;
(114) calculate the initial weight value of each meteorological factor, set up weight matrix;
(12) adopt orthogonal experiment method to confirm threshold matrix;
(13) adopt the method for experimental check to confirm sample size;
(2) filter out the sample of optimization, it is specially:
(21) filter out each meteorological similarity and reach the sample in the threshold range;
(22) filter out overall meteorological similarity and reach the sample in the threshold range;
(23) filter out and predict day the highest sample of meteorological background similarity.
2. the sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality according to claim 1 is characterized in that, the concrete steps of said step (111) are:
(1111) obtain sight meteorological factor representative data once; The up-down value that is pollutant concentration today and concentration contrast yesterday respectively more than 0.05mg/m3 and-average and maximal value, minimum value and the mean value of analyzing this meteorological factor in the period of interim each meteorological factor during below the 0.05mg/m3 two; Be upward period mean value , downward period mean value and maximal value , minimum value and the mean value of analyzing the period, wherein is the meteorological factor label;
(1112) numerical value normalization is handled, and the utilization following formula is handled,
(1113) calculate meteorological factor change degree, ;
(1114) calculate weighted value; ; Wherein is the meteorological factor change degree, and is the meteorological factor species number.
3. the sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality according to claim 1 is characterized in that, the concrete steps of said step (112) are:
(1121) obtain two times meteorological factor representative datas of sight; The API value that is pollutant is maximal value, minimum value and the mean value of this meteorological factor in the average of each meteorological factor more than 100 and in two periods below 20 and analysis period respectively; Be seriously polluted mean value in period , pollute slight mean value in period and maximal value , minimum value and the mean value of analysis period, wherein is the meteorological factor label;
(1122) numerical value normalization is handled, and the utilization following formula is handled,
(1123) calculate meteorological factor change degree, ;
(1124) calculate weighted value; ; Wherein is the meteorological factor change degree, and is the meteorological factor species number.
4. the sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality according to claim 1 is characterized in that, the related coefficient of pollutant quality concentration and meteorological factor is described in the said step (113):
; In the formula, is the meteorological factor label; meteorological factor species number; is pollutant quality concentration value; is pollutant quality concentration mean value; is the meteorological factor value; is meteorological factor mean value.
5. the sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality according to claim 1 is characterized in that, the initial weight value of each meteorological factor is described in the said step (114):
Where, is the correlation coefficient; and , respectively under scenario one and scenario two weight values ??calculated.
6. the sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality according to claim 1 is characterized in that, the concrete steps of step (12) are:
(121) confirm that experimental index is model prediction result's a absolute error value;
(122) select factor, decide level, need to confirm the experimental factor investigated according to the result of S1 step weight matrix, in this patent, promptly choose the big meteorologic factor of pollutant levels weighing factor value as experimental factor, and draft the level of each factor;
(123) design the orthogonal table gauge outfit, experimental factor is filled into the row of orthogonal table respectively;
(124) insert each level numeral the row of orthogonal table;
(125) value of calculating , wherein be row factor pairing test index of level with;
(126) calculate the mean value of the same level of each factor; is the mean value of
(127) calculate the extreme difference of each factor
denotes column factor test in its range within the magnitude of change indicators;
(128) optimal combination is confirmed excellent level according to the mean value of each factor level.
7. the sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality according to claim 6 is characterized in that, the factor number should be not more than the columns of orthogonal table in the step (123).
8. the sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality according to claim 1; It is characterized in that; The method of definite employing experimental check of said step (13) sample size adopts a plurality of sample sizes to make an experiment respectively to every kind of pollutant, chooses a highest sample size of precision of prediction.
9. the sample optimization method towards prediction of air quality according to claim 1 is characterized in that, the screening mechanism of said step (2) Screening Samples is similar with meteorology to be criterion, and the concrete steps of said step (2) are:
(21) filter out each meteorological similarity and reach the sample in the threshold range, concrete grammar is:
Sample must satisfy following formula:
; Wherein,
In the formula, is the prediction meteorological factor value of day;
is the meteorological factor value of sample;
is the meteorological similarity between sample and prediction day each meteorological factor;
is the meteorological factor label;
is the threshold value of each meteorological factor screening; Form initial threshold matrix , the threshold value in this matrix can be according to the dynamic change of sample demand;
(22) filter out overall meteorological similarity and reach the sample in certain threshold range, the sample that filters out must satisfy following formula:
; Wherein,
In the formula, is overall meteorological similarity;
is the threshold value of overall meteorological similarity screening;
is the weight of each meteorological factor of sample; Form weight matrix , reflect that this meteorologic factor is to the pollutant levels influence degree;
is the number of meteorological factor;
(23) filter out and predict day the highest bar sample of meteorological background similarity, the sample that filters out must satisfy following formula:
In the formula, is the ascending order sample row with overall meteorological similarity ordering;
is the sequence number of sample in the sample row after sorting;
is the sample size of demand.
10. according to each described sample optimization method of claim 1-9, it is characterized in that said meteorological factor is temperature, air pressure, wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, rainfall amount or relative humidity towards prediction of air quality.
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