CN110728433A - Land parcel resident population measuring and calculating method based on mobile phone signaling - Google Patents
Land parcel resident population measuring and calculating method based on mobile phone signaling Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for measuring and calculating the residential population of a plot based on mobile phone signaling, which comprises the following steps: 1) identifying the effective land parcel where the person lives for a long time; 2) measuring and calculating the resident population of the effective land parcel through a population sample expansion discrete model based on the mobile phone base station; 3) fusing and sample expanding to human mouth data based on mobile phone signaling of a mobile phone operator; 4) verifying data verification and checking the plot data by a plot current building quantity and survival rate method and a field sampling investigation method. The invention disperses the population to the plot, distributes the real population to the corresponding plot through the signal transmission relationship between the mobile phone terminal and the base station, avoids the error caused by the subjectivity of the selection of geographic and topographic factors, the simple separation from the current social development and the human activities, and is suitable for popularization and application.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a population calculating method, in particular to a plot residential population calculating method based on mobile phone signaling, and belongs to the technical field of urban space.
Background
The discretization of the population space is the most important support means of population distribution, and the acquisition of high-precision population space distribution information on different scales has great significance for correctly recognizing population distribution rules, analyzing interaction mechanisms of population, resources, environment and social and economic development and improving comprehensive management capacity of population, resources and environment. Currently, there are three main directions: the method comprises the following steps of firstly, quantitatively researching the relationship between geographic and topographic factors (such as gradient, river, vegetation coverage and the like) and population distribution; secondly, discrete population data of space elements (such as lamplight) are constructed through urban economic development; and thirdly, directly researching a mathematical model, and providing a city population distribution rule through a corrected or optimized mathematical model. When researchers select geographic terrain factors influencing population distribution, the selection standards are not uniform, influence weights of the factors are not uniform, the whole process is high in subjectivity, and deviation of discretization results of human mouths is not controllable; the urban economic development construction space data can reflect the population density situation to a certain extent, but the dispersion is the least rough and far cannot meet the use requirements of urban research and managers, and meanwhile, because the important object of urban development is in a city and the investment on a town is relatively less, the gap between the population of the city and the population of the town is amplified on economic development construction elements, the density of the city is larger than the real density of the simulated population, and the town is reduced; as for the method for exploring population dispersion by continuously optimizing a mathematical model, a thinking way is given in the research field, but the practice is relatively weak.
The urban development construction takes the plots as basic units, each plot has basic urban attribute information including land number, land property, land area, building amount, volume rate and the like, population is dispersed to the same level, important data support is provided for the multi-element data fusion of the plot level, and population data has higher practicability.
Therefore, it is necessary to develop a method which is scattered to a plot and can acquire population spatial distribution information more accurately, and is suitable for city management research and construction management.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides the population space discretization method based on the mobile phone signaling identification, which has the advantages that population data are discretized to land blocks, the scale is fine, and errors caused by the subjectivity of geographic and topographic factor selection can be avoided.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a land parcel resident population measuring and calculating method based on mobile phone signaling comprises the following steps:
1) identifying the effective land parcel where the person lives for a long time;
2) measuring and calculating the resident population of the effective land parcel through a population sample expansion discrete model based on the mobile phone base station;
the population sample expansion discrete model is as follows: a. when population is distributed in the plot, directly bringing the population into the plot for accumulation calculation; b. when population distribution is within 100 meters of the plot, calculating the linear distance between the population and the centroid point of each plot within 100 meters of the population, and incorporating the population into the plot for calculation according to the principle of closest distance; c. when the population is distributed in the range of 100-1000 m in the plot and only one plot is arranged around the population, calculating the unique plot with the population in the range of 1000 m; d. when the population is distributed in the range of 100-1000 m and the periphery has at least two or more plots, the population is influenced by a plurality of base stations, and the population is respectively distributed to all plots in the range of 100-1000 m according to different distribution weights; e. when no plot exists within the range of 1000 meters around the population, the 1000 meters basically exceed the service distance of the base station, the error of population data is large, and the population is not included in the range of the measured plot.
3) Fusing and sample expanding to human mouth data based on mobile phone signaling of a mobile phone operator;
4) verifying data verification and checking the plot data by a plot current building quantity and survival rate method and a field sampling investigation method.
Preferably, areas without long-term living conditions of population, commercial land, transportation facility land, greenfield and square, industrial storage land are invalid land blocks, and are not measured.
Preferably, in step 2), the number of people living for more than 18 days per month is monitored based on the cell phone signaling identification.
Preferably, a population with a fixed stay occurring at night for a plurality of days is defined as a resident population as the population data that needs to be discrete.
Preferably, the measurement range is not included in the land parcel with the building amount of less than 200 square meters for the residential land parcel.
According to the technical scheme, the population is scattered to the land parcel, the real population is distributed to the corresponding land parcel through the signal transmission relationship between the mobile phone terminal and the base station, errors caused by the subjectivity of geographic and topographic factor selection, the simple separation from the current social development and the human activities are avoided, and the method and the system are suitable for popularization and application.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic block diagram of the matching of base station population and space position of land blocks in the invention
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the following examples.
As shown in fig. 1, a method for measuring and calculating a residential population of a parcel based on mobile phone signaling includes the following steps:
1) identifying the effective land parcel where the person lives for a long time;
2) measuring and calculating the resident population of the effective land parcel through a population sample expansion discrete model based on the mobile phone base station;
the population sample expansion discrete model is as follows: a. when population is distributed in the plot, directly bringing the population into the plot for accumulation calculation; b. when population distribution is within 100 meters of the plot, calculating the linear distance between the population and the centroid point of each plot within 100 meters of the population, and incorporating the population into the plot for calculation according to the principle of closest distance; c. when the population is distributed in the range of 100-1000 m in the plot and only one plot is arranged around the population, calculating the unique plot with the population in the range of 1000 m; d. when the population is distributed in the range of 100-1000 m and the periphery has at least two or more plots, the population is influenced by a plurality of base stations, and the population is respectively distributed to all plots in the range of 100-1000 m according to different distribution weights; e. when no plot exists within the range of 1000 meters around the population, the 1000 meters basically exceed the service distance of the base station, the error of population data is large, and the population is not included in the range of the measured plot.
The formula for calculating the assigned weight is:
in the formula QiThe assigned weight of the 1 st, 2 nd, … th, n plots i in the range of 100 m-1000 m representing the regional population; wherein the basic weight PiThe calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
d＝max(0，dis-100)
in the formula PiRepresenting the basic weight of the 1 st, 2 nd, … th and n th plots i in the range of 100 m to 1000 m of the population in the area;
dis represents the linear distance of the population of the area to the centroid point of the i plot.
Beta represents an influence coefficient, beta is determined according to multiple sensitivity tests, specifically, the distribution results of tests on multiple selected plots are respectively selected to be beta 20, 30, 40, 50 and 100, and a threshold value closest to a ground investigation test is selected to determine a final beta value.
3) Fusing and sample expanding to human mouth data based on mobile phone signaling of a mobile phone operator; a. overlapping mobile, Unicom and telecommunication population dispersion results, and adding a plot administrative district label; b. according to the proportion of 10% of non-real users (equipment cards and Internet of things cards) mastered by a mobile company, removing interference users from the full-sample monitoring result; c. according to the survey result of the resident trip in 18 years (the number of people who have mobile phones is 63868, more than 1 mobile phone has 5952, the percentage is 9.2 percent), one user with multiple users is eliminated; d. according to the survey result (the number of people with mobile phones is 63868, the total number of people is 72170, the percentage is 88.2%) e of the residents going out in 18 years, the population of the plot is expanded according to the proportion of the non-real users, the proportion of one person in multiple levels and the permeability of the mobile phones in the administrative region to which the plot belongs. The mobile phone permeability is the number of mobile phone users/general population; one person to multiple machines is equal to the number of mobile phone users/number of mobile phones; the ratio of the unreal users is the number of mobile phone numbers/the number of mobile phone devices;
4) verifying data verification and checking the plot data by a plot current building quantity and survival rate method and a field sampling investigation method.
Furthermore, areas without long-term living conditions of population, commercial land, transportation facility land, green land, square and industrial storage are used as invalid plots, and measurement and calculation are not carried out.
Further, in step 2), the number of people living for more than 18 days in each month is monitored based on the identification of the mobile phone signaling.
Further, the population with the fixed stay at night for a plurality of days is defined as the resident population and is used as the population data to be measured.
Furthermore, the land parcel with the building quantity less than 200 square meters of the residential land parcel is not taken into the measurement range.
According to the invention, the population is scattered to the plot, the population of different plots can be obtained through the positioning of the base station through the signal transmission relationship between the mobile phone terminal and the base station, factors such as geographic terrain do not need to be referred, the influence on urban social development and human activity conditions is not direct, the population is scattered to the same plot level, important data support is provided for the fusion of plot level multi-element data, the population data has higher practicability and is suitable for popularization and application.
The technical solutions provided by the embodiments of the present invention are described in detail above, and the principles and embodiments of the present invention are explained herein by using specific examples, and the descriptions of the embodiments are only used to help understanding the principles of the embodiments of the present invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the embodiments of the present invention, there may be variations in the specific implementation manners and application ranges, and in summary, the content of the present description should not be construed as a limitation to the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A land parcel resident population measuring and calculating method based on mobile phone signaling is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) identifying the effective land parcel where the person lives for a long time;
2) calculating the resident population of the effective land parcel based on the population sample expansion discrete model of the mobile phone base station;
the population sample expansion discrete model is as follows: a. when population is distributed in the plot, directly bringing the population into the plot for accumulation calculation; b. when population distribution is within 100 meters of the plot, calculating the linear distance between the population and the centroid point of each plot within 100 meters of the population, and incorporating the population into the plot for calculation according to the principle of closest distance; c. when the population is distributed in the range of 100-1000 m in the plot and only one plot is arranged around the population, calculating the unique plot with the population in the range of 1000 m; d. when the population is distributed in the range of 100-1000 m and the periphery has at least two or more plots, the population is influenced by a plurality of base stations, and the population is respectively distributed to all plots in the range of 100-1000 m according to different distribution weights; e. when no plot exists within the range of 1000 meters around the population, the 1000 meters basically exceed the service distance of the base station, the error of population data is large, and the population is not included in the range of the measured plot.
3) Fusing and sample expanding to human mouth data based on mobile phone signaling of a mobile phone operator;
4) verifying data verification and checking the plot data by a plot current building quantity and survival rate method and a field sampling investigation method.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: areas without long-term living conditions of population, commercial land, traffic facility land, greenbelt and square, and industrial-grade storage are used as invalid plots, and are not measured and calculated.
3. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in the step 2), the number of the population living for more than 18 days in each month is monitored based on the identification of the mobile phone signaling.
4. The method as claimed in claim 3, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the population with fixed stay at night for many days is defined as resident population and is used as the population data to be measured.
5. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the land parcel with the building quantity less than 200 square meters of the residential land parcel is not included in the measurement range.
6. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the distribution weight calculation formula is:
in the formula QiThe assigned weight of the 1 st, 2 nd, … th, n plots i in the range of 100 m-1000 m representing the regional population;
wherein the basic weight PiThe calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
d＝max(0，dis-100)
in the formula PiRepresenting the basic weight of the 1 st, 2 nd, … th and n th plots i in the range of 100 m to 1000 m of the population in the area;
dis represents the linear distance of the population of the area to the centroid point of the i plot.
β represents an influence coefficient.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein the method comprises the following steps: and determining beta according to multiple sensitivity tests, specifically selecting beta as 20, 30, 40, 50 and 100 to test distribution results in multiple selected plots, and selecting a threshold closest to a ground investigation test to determine a final beta value.
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| CN116193369A (en) * | 2022-12-13 | 2023-05-30 | 南京大学 | Resident population generation rate estimation method based on mobile phone signaling data |
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