CN110707744A - Method and device for monitoring power generation state of wind power plant cluster and storage medium - Google Patents
Method and device for monitoring power generation state of wind power plant cluster and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of power grids, and discloses a method, a device and a storage medium for monitoring the power generation state of a wind power plant cluster, wherein the method comprises the following steps: detecting the wind speed of each wind power plant; establishing a wind power plant cluster power generation model according to the wind speed of each wind power plant; obtaining a confidence interval of the power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster according to the wind power plant cluster power generation model, the preset conditional power and the preset confidence; obtaining the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster according to the power generation power model of the wind power plant cluster and preset conditional power; and monitoring the power generation state of the wind power plant cluster by using the confidence interval of the power generation power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster and the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster. The embodiment of the invention can realize the analysis of the power fluctuation characteristics of the offshore wind power cluster, thereby ensuring the stability and the safety of the operation of a power grid.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grids, in particular to a method and a device for monitoring the power generation state of a wind power plant cluster and a storage medium.
Background
The power industry is an important industry of fossil energy consumption in China, and CO thereof2The emission amount accounts for 38.76 percent of the total national emission amount, so that the development of the power industry faces huge pressure of cleanness, high efficiency and low carbonization. Therefore, under a new development mode, clean low-carbon power supplies such as wind power supplies and the like can obtain wider development space.
In recent years, offshore wind power has developed rapidly; the offshore wind power is generally large in installed scale, the generated output of the offshore wind power has the characteristics of randomness, intermittence, volatility and the like, and when the proportion of the wind power in a power grid is increased, the defects of randomness, intermittence, volatility and the like of the generated output of the offshore wind power can be gradually amplified, so that the safe and stable operation of a power system is seriously influenced. Meanwhile, offshore wind power is generally far off the shore, and a plurality of wind power plant clusters are needed to be connected to the grid, so that the complexity of the offshore wind power is undoubtedly increased; however, analysis on the grid-connected characteristics of the offshore wind power cluster is lacked at present, particularly the fluctuation characteristics of the generated power, so that the influence of the characteristics on the operation of a power grid is difficult to determine, and the safe and stable operation of the power grid is difficult to ensure.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a device for monitoring the power generation state of a wind power plant cluster and a storage medium, which can realize the analysis of the power fluctuation characteristic of the offshore wind power cluster so as to ensure the stability and the safety of the operation of a power grid.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a method for monitoring the power generation state of a wind power plant cluster, which comprises the following steps:
detecting the wind speed of each wind power plant;
establishing a wind power plant cluster power generation model according to the wind speed of each wind power plant;
obtaining a confidence interval of the power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster according to the wind power plant cluster power generation power model, a preset conditional power and a preset confidence;
obtaining the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster according to the power generation power model of the wind power plant cluster and preset conditional power;
and monitoring the power generation state of the wind power plant cluster by using the confidence interval of the power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster and the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster.
As a preferred scheme, the establishing of the wind farm cluster generated power model according to the wind speed of each wind farm specifically comprises:
acquiring the generated power of the wind turbine generator in each wind power plant according to the wind speed of the wind power plant;
calculating the generated power of each wind power plant according to the generated power of the wind turbine generator;
and establishing a wind power plant cluster power generation model according to the power generation power of each wind power plant.
As a preferred scheme, the obtaining the generated power of the wind turbine generator in each wind farm according to the wind speed of the wind farm specifically includes:
when the wind speed of the wind power plant is smaller than the cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine generator or the wind speed of the wind power plant is larger than the cut-out wind speed of the wind turbine generator, obtaining that the generated power of the wind turbine generator is zero;
when the wind speed of the wind power plant is greater than the cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine generator and less than the rated wind speed of the wind turbine generator, calculating the generated power of the wind turbine generator according to the wind speed and by the following formula:
wherein f is1(v) The generated power of the wind turbine generator is used as the generated power of the wind turbine generator; prThe rated power of the wind turbine generator is set; v is the wind speed of the wind farm; v. ofciThe cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine generator is obtained; v. ofrThe rated wind speed of the wind turbine generator is set;
and when the wind speed of the wind power plant is greater than the rated wind speed of the wind turbine generator and less than the cut-out wind speed of the wind turbine generator, obtaining the generated power of the wind turbine generator as the rated power of the wind turbine generator.
As a preferred scheme, the calculating the generated power of each wind farm according to the generated power of the wind turbine generator specifically includes:
according to the generated power of the wind turbine generator, calculating the generated power of each wind power plant through the following formula:
Pi＝ci×Ni×f1(vi)
wherein, PiGenerating power of an ith wind power plant; c. CiThe coefficient of wake effect of the ith wind power plant is obtained; n is a radical ofiThe number of the wind turbines in the ith wind power plant is; f. of1(vi) The generated power of the wind turbine generator of the ith wind power plant.
As a preferred scheme, the establishing of the wind farm cluster generated power model according to the generated power of each wind farm specifically includes:
establishing a wind power plant cluster power generation model according to the power generation power of each wind power plant:
wherein, PtGenerating power for the wind farm cluster; piGenerating power of an ith wind power plant; and n is the number of the wind power plants.
As a preferred scheme, the obtaining a confidence interval of the fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster power generation power according to the wind power plant cluster power generation power model, a preset conditional power and a preset confidence coefficient specifically includes:
according to the wind power plant cluster generated power model, the preset conditional power and the preset confidence coefficient, obtaining a confidence interval of the wind power plant cluster generated power fluctuation through the following formula:
f2(p1)＝f2(p2)
wherein p is1、p2Respectively generating power of the wind power plant cluster; (p)1，p2) The confidence interval with a confidence of 1-alpha; f. of2(p1) Is at p1A conditional wind speed probability density of; f. of2(p2) Is at p2A conditional wind speed probability density of; p is a radical ofcAnd the preset conditional power is obtained.
As a preferred scheme, the obtaining of the fluctuation skewness of the wind farm cluster generated power according to the wind farm cluster generated power model and a preset conditional power specifically includes:
according to the wind power plant cluster power generation model and a preset conditional power, respectively calculating the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is larger than the preset conditional power by the following formulas:
wherein, P1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3The probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power is obtained; p is a radical ofcThe preset conditional power is obtained; f. of3(p) is the conditional power probability density;
calculating the relative skewness of the probability of the generated power of the wind power plant cluster according to the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power:
wherein rho is the relative skewness of the power generation probability of the wind power plant cluster; p1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3And the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is greater than the preset conditional power is obtained.
As a preferred scheme, the obtaining of the fluctuation skewness of the wind farm cluster generated power according to the wind farm cluster generated power model and a preset conditional power specifically includes:
according to the wind power plant cluster power generation model and a preset conditional power, respectively calculating the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is larger than the preset conditional power by the following formulas:
wherein, P1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3The probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power is obtained; f. of3(p) is the conditional power probability density;
calculating the relative skewness of the probability of the generated power of the wind power plant cluster according to the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power:
wherein rho is the relative skewness of the power generation probability of the wind power plant cluster; p1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3And the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is greater than the preset conditional power is obtained.
In order to solve the same technical problem, correspondingly, the invention also provides a monitoring device for the power generation state of the wind farm cluster, which comprises a processor, a memory and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, wherein the processor implements the monitoring method for the power generation state of the wind farm cluster when executing the computer program.
Compared with the prior art, the invention provides a method, a device and a storage medium for monitoring the power generation state of a wind power plant cluster, establishing a wind farm cluster generated power model through the detected wind speed of each wind farm, then obtaining a confidence interval of the power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster according to the wind power plant cluster power generation model, the preset conditional power and the preset confidence, and obtaining the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster according to the power generation power model of the wind power plant cluster and preset conditional power, enabling monitoring of the power generation status of the wind farm cluster using the confidence interval of the wind farm cluster power generation fluctuation and the fluctuation skewness of the wind farm cluster power generation power, the method and the device can analyze the power fluctuation characteristics of the offshore wind power cluster, thereby ensuring the stability and the safety of the operation of the power grid.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for monitoring the power generation state of a wind farm cluster in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic illustration of a wind farm generated power probability distribution in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic illustration of a wind farm cluster generated power probability distribution in an embodiment of the invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a monitoring device for a power generation state of a wind farm cluster in an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, a method for monitoring the power generation state of a wind farm cluster according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps S11-S15:
and S11, detecting the wind speed of each wind power plant.
And S12, establishing a wind power plant cluster power generation model according to the wind speed of each wind power plant.
In a preferred embodiment, the establishing a wind farm cluster generated power model according to the wind speed of each wind farm specifically includes the following steps S121 to S123:
s121, obtaining the generated power of the wind turbine generator in each wind power plant according to the wind speed of the wind power plants;
s122, calculating the power generation power of each wind power plant according to the power generation power of the wind turbine generator;
and S123, establishing a wind power plant cluster generated power model according to the generated power of each wind power plant.
Specifically, when step S121 is implemented, in a preferred embodiment, the obtaining the generated power of the wind turbine generator in each wind farm according to the wind speed of the wind farm specifically includes:
when the wind speed of the wind power plant is smaller than the cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine generator or the wind speed of the wind power plant is larger than the cut-out wind speed of the wind turbine generator, obtaining that the generated power of the wind turbine generator is zero;
when the wind speed of the wind power plant is greater than the cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine generator and less than the rated wind speed of the wind turbine generator, calculating the generated power of the wind turbine generator according to the wind speed and by the following formula:
wherein f is1(v) The generated power of the wind turbine generator is used as the generated power of the wind turbine generator; prThe rated power of the wind turbine generator is set; v is the wind speed of the wind farm; v. ofciThe cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine generator is obtained; v. ofrThe rated wind speed of the wind turbine generator is set;
and when the wind speed of the wind power plant is greater than the rated wind speed of the wind turbine generator and less than the cut-out wind speed of the wind turbine generator, obtaining the generated power of the wind turbine generator as the rated power of the wind turbine generator.
In another preferred embodiment, the obtaining the generated power of the wind turbine generator in each wind farm according to the wind speed of the wind farm specifically includes:
under the condition of standard air density, acquiring the generating power of the wind turbine generator in each wind power plant according to the wind speed of the wind power plant and a preset standard characteristic curve of the wind turbine generator; the preset standard characteristic curve of the wind turbine generator is a relation curve of the generated power of the wind turbine generator and the wind speed of the wind power plant.
In step S122, the calculating the generated power of each wind farm according to the generated power of the wind turbine includes:
according to the generated power of the wind turbine generator, calculating the generated power of each wind power plant through the following formula:
Pi＝ci×Ni×f1(vi)
wherein, PiGenerating power of an ith wind power plant; c. CiThe coefficient of wake effect of the ith wind power plant is obtained; n is a radical ofiThe number of the wind turbines in the ith wind power plant is; f. of1(vi) The generated power of the wind turbine generator of the ith wind power plant; it should be noted that the generated power of the wind turbine generator is obtained in step S121.
In addition, in order to facilitate the analysis of the probability distribution of the power generated by the offshore wind farm, it is preferable to count the output distribution and the corresponding frequency of occurrence of the offshore wind farm to obtain a distribution probability histogram thereof, as shown in fig. 2.
In step S123, the establishing a wind farm cluster generated power model according to the generated power of each wind farm specifically includes:
establishing a wind power plant cluster power generation model according to the power generation power of each wind power plant:
wherein, PtGenerating power for the wind farm cluster; piGenerating power of an ith wind power plant; n is the wind farmThe number of the cells.
In addition, in order to facilitate the analysis of the probability distribution of the power generation of the offshore wind farm cluster, it is preferable to count the output distribution and the corresponding frequency of occurrence of the offshore wind farm cluster to obtain a distribution probability histogram thereof, as shown in fig. 3.
And S13, obtaining a confidence interval of the wind power plant cluster power fluctuation according to the wind power plant cluster power generation power model, the preset conditional power and the preset confidence.
Specifically, in step S13, the obtaining a confidence interval of the fluctuation of the wind farm cluster generated power according to the wind farm cluster generated power model, a preset conditional power, and a preset confidence includes:
according to the wind power plant cluster generating power model, the preset conditional power and the preset confidence coefficient, obtaining the confidence interval of the wind power plant cluster generating power fluctuation through the following formula:
f2(p1)＝f2(p2)
wherein p is1、p2Respectively generating power of the wind power plant cluster; (p)1，p2) Is the confidence interval; f. of2(p1) Is at p1A conditional wind speed probability density of; f. of2(p2) Is at p2A conditional wind speed probability density of; p is a radical ofcThe preset conditional power is obtained; 1-alpha is the confidence.
In addition, p is1、p2Generating power for two wind power plant clusters, the preset conditional power pcGenerating power of the wind power plant cluster at a certain moment needing attention; (p)1，p2) The confidence coefficient is a confidence interval with the confidence coefficient of 1-alpha, and the confidence interval reflects that the power generation power of the offshore wind farm cluster surrounds the preset conditional power pcThe range and probability of fluctuation up and down, so that the confidence region can be determinedAnd acquiring the power generation state of the wind power plant cluster.
Furthermore, f2And (p) obtaining the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster, and then calculating the conditional wind speed probability density under the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster according to a preset function.
And S14, obtaining the fluctuation skewness of the wind power plant cluster generated power according to the wind power plant cluster generated power model and preset condition power.
Specifically, when step S14 is implemented, in a preferred embodiment, the obtaining the fluctuation skewness of the wind farm cluster generated power according to the wind farm cluster generated power model and a preset conditional power specifically includes the following steps:
s141, respectively calculating the probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power according to the wind power plant cluster power generation model and the preset conditional power by the following formulas:
wherein, P1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3The probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power is obtained; p is a radical ofcThe preset conditional power is obtained; f. of3And (p) the conditional power probability density is preset, and after the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is obtained, the conditional power probability density under the generated power of the wind power plant cluster can be obtained through calculation according to a preset function.
S142, calculating the probability relative skewness of the generated power of the wind power plant cluster according to the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power:
wherein rho is the relative skewness of the power generation probability of the wind power plant cluster; p1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3And the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is greater than the preset conditional power is obtained.
In addition, P is1+P3The probability of the deviation of the power generation power of the offshore wind farm cluster from the conditional power in the next period can be defined as the probability deviation of the conditional wind speed; since in general P1And P3Not equal, and therefore, the relative magnitudes of the two may reflect the degree to which the probability distribution is left biased (active power reduction) and right biased (active power increase).
In specific implementation, when the calculated relative skewness rho ∈ (0, 0.5) of the power generation power probability of the wind power plant cluster is obtained, it is indicated that the left is dominant; when the power generation probability of the wind power plant cluster is relatively deviated to a bias degree rho epsilon (0.5, 1), indicating that the right deviation is dominant; and when the relative bias of the generated power probability rho of the wind power plant cluster is 0.5, indicating that the left bias and the right bias are equal.
In another preferred embodiment, the obtaining of the fluctuation skewness of the wind farm cluster generated power according to the wind farm cluster generated power model and a preset conditional power specifically includes the following steps:
s141', according to the wind power plant cluster power generation model and the preset conditional power, respectively calculating the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is larger than the preset conditional power by the following formulas:
wherein, P1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3The probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power is obtained; p is a radical ofcThe preset conditional power is obtained; f. of3(p) is the conditional power probability density;
s142', calculating the probability relative skewness of the generated power of the wind power plant cluster according to the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power:
wherein rho is the relative skewness of the power generation probability of the wind power plant cluster; p1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3And the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is greater than the preset conditional power is obtained.
In specific implementation, when the calculated relative skewness rho ∈ (0, 0.5) of the power generation power probability of the wind power plant cluster is obtained, indicating that the right-side is dominant; when the power generation probability of the wind power plant cluster is relatively deviated to a bias degree rho epsilon (0.5, 1), indicating that the left side is dominant; and when the relative bias of the generated power probability rho of the wind power plant cluster is 0.5, indicating that the left bias and the right bias are equal.
And S15, monitoring the power generation state of the wind power plant cluster by applying the confidence interval of the power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster and the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster.
Specifically, the power generation state of the wind power plant cluster is monitored by applying the confidence interval of the power generation power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster and the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster, so that the power generation power fluctuation analysis under the large-scale offshore wind power cluster grid-connected condition is realized, and the safe and stable operation of a power grid is ensured.
Referring to fig. 4, another embodiment of the present invention correspondingly provides a monitoring device for a power generation state of a wind farm cluster.
The monitoring device 1 for the power generation state of the wind farm cluster provided by the embodiment of the invention comprises a processor 11, a memory 12 and a computer program which is stored in the memory 12 and configured to be executed by the processor 11, wherein the processor 11 realizes the monitoring method for the power generation state of the wind farm cluster when executing the computer program.
Illustratively, the computer program may be divided into one or more modules/units, which are stored in the memory 12 and executed by the processor 11 to accomplish the present invention. The one or more modules/units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions for describing the execution process of the computer program in the monitoring device 1 for monitoring the power generation state of the wind farm cluster.
The Processor 11 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), an off-the-shelf Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete Gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, etc. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.
The memory 12 may be used for storing the computer programs and/or modules, and the processor 11 implements various functions of the monitoring device 1 for the power generation state of the wind farm cluster by running or executing the computer programs and/or modules stored in the memory 12 and calling the data stored in the memory 12. The memory 12 may mainly include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area may store an operating system, an application program required by at least one function (such as a sound playing function, an image playing function, etc.), and the like; the storage data area may store data (such as audio data, a phonebook, etc.) created according to the use of the cellular phone, and the like. In addition, the memory may include high speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, a memory, a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card), at least one magnetic disk storage device, a Flash memory device, or other volatile solid state storage device.
The modules/units integrated with the monitoring device 1 for the power generation state of the wind farm cluster can be stored in a computer readable storage medium if the modules/units are implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as independent products. Based on such understanding, all or part of the flow of the method according to the embodiments of the present invention may also be implemented by a computer program, which may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method embodiments may be implemented. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, usb disk, removable hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer Memory, Read-Only Memory (ROM), Random Access Memory (RAM), electrical carrier wave signals, telecommunications signals, software distribution medium, and the like. It should be noted that the computer readable medium may contain content that is subject to appropriate increase or decrease as required by legislation and patent practice in jurisdictions, for example, in some jurisdictions, computer readable media does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals as is required by legislation and patent practice.
It should be noted that the above-described device embodiments are merely illustrative, where the units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and the parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the present embodiment. In addition, in the drawings of the embodiment of the apparatus provided by the present invention, the connection relationship between the modules indicates that there is a communication connection between them, and may be specifically implemented as one or more communication buses or signal lines. One of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement it without inventive effort.
In summary, the present invention provides a method, an apparatus and a storage medium for monitoring the power generation status of a wind farm cluster, establishing a wind farm cluster generated power model through the detected wind speed of each wind farm, then obtaining a confidence interval of the power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster according to the wind power plant cluster power generation model, the preset conditional power and the preset confidence, and obtaining the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster according to the power generation power model of the wind power plant cluster and preset conditional power, enabling monitoring of the power generation status of the wind farm cluster using the confidence interval of the wind farm cluster power generation fluctuation and the fluctuation skewness of the wind farm cluster power generation power, the method and the device can analyze the power fluctuation characteristics of the offshore wind power cluster, thereby ensuring the stability and the safety of the operation of the power grid.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, various modifications and substitutions can be made without departing from the technical principle of the present invention, and these modifications and substitutions should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for monitoring the power generation state of a wind power plant cluster is characterized by comprising the following steps:
detecting the wind speed of each wind power plant;
establishing a wind power plant cluster power generation model according to the wind speed of each wind power plant;
obtaining a confidence interval of the power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster according to the wind power plant cluster power generation power model, a preset conditional power and a preset confidence;
obtaining the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster according to the power generation power model of the wind power plant cluster and preset conditional power;
and monitoring the power generation state of the wind power plant cluster by using the confidence interval of the power fluctuation of the wind power plant cluster and the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster.
2. The method for monitoring the power generation state of the wind farm cluster according to claim 1, wherein the establishing of the wind farm cluster power generation model according to the wind speed of each wind farm specifically comprises:
acquiring the generated power of the wind turbine generator in each wind power plant according to the wind speed of the wind power plant;
calculating the generated power of each wind power plant according to the generated power of the wind turbine generator;
and establishing a wind power plant cluster power generation model according to the power generation power of each wind power plant.
3. The method for monitoring the power generation state of the wind farm cluster according to claim 2, wherein the obtaining of the power generation power of the wind turbine generator in each wind farm according to the wind speed of the wind farm specifically comprises:
when the wind speed of the wind power plant is smaller than the cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine generator or the wind speed of the wind power plant is larger than the cut-out wind speed of the wind turbine generator, obtaining that the generated power of the wind turbine generator is zero;
when the wind speed of the wind power plant is greater than the cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine generator and less than the rated wind speed of the wind turbine generator, calculating the generated power of the wind turbine generator according to the wind speed and by the following formula:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,f1(v) the generated power of the wind turbine generator is used as the generated power of the wind turbine generator; prThe rated power of the wind turbine generator is set; v is the wind speed of the wind farm; v. ofciThe cut-in wind speed of the wind turbine generator is obtained; v. ofrThe rated wind speed of the wind turbine generator is set;
and when the wind speed of the wind power plant is greater than the rated wind speed of the wind turbine generator and less than the cut-out wind speed of the wind turbine generator, obtaining the generated power of the wind turbine generator as the rated power of the wind turbine generator.
4. The method for monitoring the power generation state of the wind farm cluster according to claim 3, wherein the calculating the power generation power of each wind farm according to the power generation power of the wind turbine generator specifically comprises:
according to the generated power of the wind turbine generator, calculating the generated power of each wind power plant through the following formula:
Pi＝ci×Ni×f1(vi)
wherein, PiGenerating power of an ith wind power plant; c. CiThe coefficient of wake effect of the ith wind power plant is obtained; n is a radical ofiThe number of the wind turbines in the ith wind power plant is; f. of1(vi) The generated power of the wind turbine generator of the ith wind power plant.
5. The method for monitoring the power generation state of the wind farm cluster according to claim 4, wherein the establishing of the wind farm cluster power generation model according to the power generation of each wind farm specifically comprises:
establishing a wind power plant cluster power generation model according to the power generation power of each wind power plant:
wherein, PtGenerating power for the wind farm cluster; piGenerating power of an ith wind power plant; n is the number of the wind power plants。
6. The method for monitoring the power generation state of the wind farm cluster according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the obtaining of the confidence interval of the power fluctuation of the wind farm cluster according to the wind farm cluster power generation model, the preset conditional power and the preset confidence level specifically comprises:
according to the wind power plant cluster generated power model, the preset conditional power and the preset confidence coefficient, obtaining a confidence interval of the wind power plant cluster generated power fluctuation through the following formula:
f2(p1)＝f2(p2)
wherein p is1、p2Respectively generating power of the wind power plant cluster; (p)1，p2) The confidence interval with a confidence of 1-alpha; f. of2(p1) Is at p1A conditional wind speed probability density of; f. of2(p2) Is at p2A conditional wind speed probability density of; p is a radical ofcAnd the preset conditional power is obtained.
7. The method for monitoring the power generation state of the wind farm cluster according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the obtaining of the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind farm cluster according to the wind farm cluster power generation power model and a preset conditional power specifically comprises:
according to the wind power plant cluster power generation model and a preset conditional power, respectively calculating the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is larger than the preset conditional power by the following formulas:
wherein, P1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3The probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power is obtained; p is a radical ofcThe preset conditional power is obtained; f. of3(p) is the conditional power probability density;
calculating the relative skewness of the probability of the generated power of the wind power plant cluster according to the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power:
wherein rho is the relative skewness of the power generation probability of the wind power plant cluster; p1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3And the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is greater than the preset conditional power is obtained.
8. The method for monitoring the power generation state of the wind farm cluster according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the obtaining of the fluctuation skewness of the power generation power of the wind farm cluster according to the wind farm cluster power generation power model and a preset conditional power specifically comprises:
according to the wind power plant cluster power generation model and a preset conditional power, respectively calculating the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the wind power plant cluster power generation is larger than the preset conditional power by the following formulas:
wherein, P1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3The probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power is obtained; f. of3(p) is the conditional power probability density;
calculating the relative skewness of the probability of the generated power of the wind power plant cluster according to the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power and the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is larger than the preset conditional power:
wherein rho is the relative skewness of the power generation probability of the wind power plant cluster; p1The probability that the power generation power of the wind power plant cluster is smaller than the preset conditional power is obtained; p3And the probability that the generated power of the wind power plant cluster is greater than the preset conditional power is obtained.
9. A device for monitoring the power generation status of a wind farm cluster, characterized by comprising a processor, a memory and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, the processor implementing the method for monitoring the power generation status of a wind farm cluster according to any one of claims 1 to 8 when executing the computer program.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, comprising a stored computer program, wherein the computer program, when executed, controls a device on which the computer-readable storage medium is located to perform a method of monitoring a power generation state of a wind farm cluster according to any one of claims 1 to 8.
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