CN110514298A - A kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas - Google Patents
A kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation methods based on ground cloud atlas, it include: to build distributed ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system, it according to certain shooting interval continuous acquisition All-sky image and stores, establishes the Cloud-Picture Characteristics database using height, color, texture and shape as feature vector；Using the distributed current sky cloud atlas of ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system photographs, classifying to obtain using KNN will be to type belonging to the cloud layer that the sun is blocked；It is tracked according to current sky cloud atlas using the direction of motion of the optical flow method to cloud layer, calculates the cloud cover rate at moment to be predicted；According to the cloud cover rate at moment to be predicted, based on irradiating model by clear sky, the horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity at moment to be predicted under the cloud layer is calculated.The present invention is in assessing the following solar irradiation intensity process, in conjunction with instant cloud layer motion information, so that assessment result has real-time, total dose result accuracy may make to improve.
Description
Technical field
The invention discloses a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation methods based on ground cloud atlas, belong to solar irradiation and photovoltaic
Technical field of power generation.
Background technique
As solar energy power generating accesses bulk power grid, the fluctuation of photovoltaic power generation inherently as power supply energy at high proportion
Property and randomness, will certainly bring new challenge to grid power electronic equipment, mains frequency etc..Generated output in power grid and negative
Lotus power wants the moment to keep balance, if Generation Side injection is influenced by live weather at high proportion, the distributed photovoltaic of random fluctuation is electric
Source, Generation Side randomness will will be greatly reduced the reliability of operation of power networks.To maintain bulk power grid stable operation, bulk power grid is led at present
It relies on and abandons light regulation power balance, but this method, reduce utilization of new energy resources rate.It is photovoltaic system that the intermittence of cloud layer, which is blocked,
The main reason for system power output randomness, fluctuation, therefore, in a short time to the sun of photovoltaic system shade and non-hatched area
Irradiation profile carries out high-precision forecast, is that the alternating current-direct current power grid coordinated control of high proportion photovoltaic is asked with stable operation basis to be solved
Topic.
Summary of the invention
Blocking the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to the intermittence for cloud layer causes photovoltaic power output random fluctuation to ask
Topic, provides a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas, will influence caused by solar irradiation cloud layer future
Carry out quantitative prediction.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas,
Include:
Distributed ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system is built, according to certain shooting interval continuous acquisition All-sky image
And store, establish Cloud-Picture Characteristics database；
Using the distributed current sky cloud atlas of ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system photographs, it is according to Cloud-Picture Characteristics database
By type belonging to the cloud layer blocked to the sun；
The cloud cover rate at moment to be predicted is calculated according to current sky cloud atlas；
According to the cloud cover rate at moment to be predicted, based on clear sky irradiation model, when calculating to be predicted under the cloud layer
The horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity at quarter.
Further, the distributed ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system is by two cloud atlas Acquisition Instruments and an irradiation Acquisition Instrument
Constitute, two cloud atlas Acquisition Instruments be used for and meanwhile shoot sky cloud atlas, be separated by 1.2km, respectively by metallic support be fixed on from
On the platform of horizontal plane 10m, the irradiation Acquisition Instrument is horizontally installed to two cloud atlas acquisitions for acquiring total irradiation horizontal in real time
The midpoint of instrument line.
It is further, described to establish Cloud-Picture Characteristics database, comprising:
Acquired All-sky image is divided into 11 classes, including cloudless clear sky and cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus, high product
Cloud, altostratus, cumulus, cumulonimbus, stratocumulus, the stratus cloud type different with 10 class of nimbostratus；
Calculate the Cloud-Picture Characteristics amount of every sub-picture；
The Cloud-Picture Characteristics amount of every sub-picture is arranged in a certain order and obtains Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector；
Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector is normalized to section [0,100]；
All image normalizations treated Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector forms a feature space, constitutes one with cloud layer point
The Cloud-Picture Characteristics database of class.
Further, the Cloud-Picture Characteristics amount includes altitude feature amount, Color Characteristic, texture characteristic amount and shape feature
Amount calculates as follows:
A, using the height of cloud base as altitude feature amount:
Z=fb/ (xl-xr)
Wherein, z is the height of cloud base, and f is camera focus in cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument, and b is baseline, and xl is that cloud base point is adopted in cloud atlas
Collect the pixel distance of instrument C1 imaging plane, xr is pixel distance of the cloud base point in cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument C2 imaging plane, and xl-xr is
Parallax；
B, Color Characteristic includes:
The channel R and channel B average gray value:
Channel B standard deviation SDB:
Channel B degree of bias SKB:
Gray-scale deviation:
Dij=MEi-MEj
Wherein, DijFor the gray-scale deviation in the channel i and the channel j, i, j ∈ { R, G, B }, aliIndicate that pixel l is corresponding in the channel i
Gray value, l ∈ { 0 ..., N-1 }, N indicate image total pixel number；
C, texture characteristic amount includes:
Channel B ENERGY E NB:
Channel B contrast C ONB:
Channel B entropy ENTB:
Channel B is against variance HOMB:
Wherein, M indicates image grayscale series, PΔ(a, b) indicates two o'clock gray value a and b in image grayscale co-occurrence matrix
Pixel distance；
D, shape feature amount is indicated using cloud cover rate:
CC=Ncloud/N0
Wherein, CC indicates cloud cover rate, NcloudFor the number of whole image medium cloud pixel, N0It is complete in whole image
The number of portion's effective pixel points.
It is further, described that Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector is normalized, comprising:
Wherein, KiIndicate the element after normalizing in Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector, kiIndicate the element in primitive nebula figure feature vector,
kminRepresent least member in primitive nebula figure feature vector, kmaxRepresent greatest member in cloud atlas original feature vector.
It is further, described that obtained according to Cloud-Picture Characteristics database will be to class belonging to the cloud layer that the sun is blocked
Type, comprising:
Calculate the feature vector of current sky cloud atlas to be sorted；
Calculate current sky cloud atlas to be sorted feature vector and Cloud-Picture Characteristics database in Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector it
Between Euclidean distance；
Choose the smallest preceding K data of Euclidean distance；
Count this corresponding cloud type of K data, the most current sky cloud atlas institute as to be sorted of frequency of occurrence
The classification of category.
Further, the current sky cloud atlas of the basis calculates the cloud cover rate at moment to be predicted, comprising:
Obtain the two-value cloud atlas of current sky cloud atlas；
Using minimum cross entropy method, the normalization red-blue ratio optimal threshold for dividing sky and cloud layer in two-value cloud atlas is determined,
t*=argmin {-m (0, t-1) log [u (0, t-1)]-m (t, L) log [u (t, L)] }
Wherein, t*For the histogram serial number where normalization red-blue ratio optimal threshold, t indicates normalization red-blue ratio threshold
Histogram serial number where value,
H (i) is percent value shared by histogram i, and L indicates histogram sum；
Histogram sequence number where normalization red-blue ratio optimal threshold finds corresponding best normalization
Red-blue ratio threshold value；
Each grey scale pixel value of two-value cloud atlas is traversed, and calculates the corresponding normalization red-blue ratio of each pixel,
Normalizing red-blue ratio to be less than optimal threshold is considered as cloud layer pixel, on the contrary then be considered sky pixel；
The direction of motion of cloud layer is tracked using optical flow method, K mean cluster is utilized to the cloud layer towards solar motion
Method carries out the calculating of cloud layer speed, and reversely divides time grid along the direction of motion, according to two-value cloud atlas, calculates in each grid
Cloud layer pixel accounts for the percentage of grid whole pixel, as cloud cover rate.
Further, the horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity for calculating moment to be predicted under the cloud layer, comprising:
Wherein,For the horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity of future t+ time Δt under the cloud layer, (t+ Δ t) is t to CI
The cloud cover rate of+time Δt,
CT (t) is the cloud layer transmitance of t moment, according to the cloud layer transmitance meter for the 10 class cloud layers that International Meteorological Organization divides
Formula is calculated to calculate；
Ics(t+ Δ t) is the clear sky irradiation intensity of t+ time Δt, is calculated using empirical model Haurwitzs model；
ST (t) is sky transmitance, is calculated as follows:
According to the clearness index in first 1 hour of current time every 10 minutes each moment, calculated using following formula each
The sky transmitance at moment, and take the maximum value of calculating as sky transmitance needed for prediction:
kt(t)=ST (t) (1-CI (t))+CI (t) CT (t)；
Wherein, kt(t) it is clearness index, calculates as follows:
kt(t)=I (t)/Ics(t)
Wherein, I (t) is by the horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity of irradiation Acquisition Instrument actual measurement, IcsIt (t) is the clear sky of t moment
Irradiation intensity is calculated using empirical model Haurwitzs model.
The beneficial effect that the present invention reaches is:
In assessing the following solar irradiation intensity process, in conjunction with instant cloud layer motion information, so that assessment result has
Real-time, the cloud atlas type sorter established using long-time experience cloud atlas database in the present invention, has more quantified difference
The difference that type influences irradiation may make total dose result accuracy to improve.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the solar irradiation Strength co-mputation Technology Roadmap of the invention based on ground cloud atlas；
Fig. 2 is to calculate height of cloud base schematic diagram using two cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument positional relationships；
Fig. 3 is that solar irradiation reaches ground route schematic diagram；
Fig. 4 is that different moments cloud cover rate and clearness index predict schematic diagram in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 5 is to be compared using the irradiation prediction of the method for the present invention with Persistence model prediction.
Specific embodiment
The invention will be further described below.Following embodiment is only used for clearly illustrating technical side of the invention
Case, and not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention.
The present invention is continuously shot All-sky image by building inexpensive all-sky ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument；Base
Two-value cloud atlas is obtained in the R channel value and channel B value for obtaining All-sky image；By establishing distributed ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system
System estimates the neighbouring cloud layer height of cloud base；On the basis of identifying to cloud type, cloud layer transmitance and cloud type are established
Fundamental relation；The physical model of sky transmitance, cloud layer transmitance is established, predicts all-sky ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument deployment site
Occlusion area and de-occlusion region horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity distribution.
Referring to Fig. 1, specific implementation process of the invention is as follows, comprising the following steps:
1) distributed ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system is voluntarily built, according to certain shooting interval continuous acquisition whole day
Null images simultaneously store, and are accumulated after a period of time, can establish Cloud-Picture Characteristics database accordingly.Detailed process is as follows:
The distributed ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system voluntarily built is by two cloud atlas Acquisition Instruments and an irradiation Acquisition Instrument structure
At wherein two cloud atlas Acquisition Instruments are used for while shooting sky cloud atlas.It is separated by 1.2km, respectively by metallic support be fixed on from
On the platform of horizontal plane 10m, cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument is by capture apparatus (keep when shooting horizontal and towards sky), storage communication apparatus
It (including SD card and raspberry pie development board) and is formed in the bracket that capture apparatus was fixed, supported to platform；Irradiation Acquisition Instrument is for pressing
Certain time interval acquisition total irradiation horizontal in real time, is thermoelectric pile irradiatometer, is horizontally installed to two cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument lines
Midpoint.
After sky image is collected, first manual classification is carried out to these images, 11 classes are classified as altogether, including cloudless clear sky
The cloud-type different with 10 classes, referring to table 1.Then these images are carried out with the calculating of Cloud-Picture Characteristics, Cloud-Picture Characteristics packet therein
Altitude feature, color characteristic, textural characteristics and shape feature are included, specific as follows:
It first has to obtain the height of cloud base as its altitude feature, needs to carry out two Zhang Yun's figures of synchronization matching point
Analysis.Referring to fig. 2, C1, C2 are the two cloud atlas Acquisition Instruments arranged in figure.Using geometric knowledge, the height of cloud base, following institute can be obtained
Show:
Z=fb/ (xl-xr) (1)
Wherein, z is the height of cloud base, and f is camera focus, and b is baseline, f and b be it is previously known, xl is that P point is imaged in C1
The pixel distance of plane, xr are P point in the pixel distance of C2 imaging plane, and xl-xr is parallax, is denoted as d.Really rule needs d
Know corresponding relationship of each pixel in C1 shooting image in the image that C2 is shot, utilizes Epipolar geometry method.Due to C1,
C2 is in installation and in shooting process it is difficult to ensure that being that image is coplanar and the ideal situation of optical axis horizontal parallel, using homography matrix
Transformation is by two image flame detections to ideal situation, and plane PC1C2 and the horizontal intersection of camera plane are polar curve EL at this time, such as schemes
Shown in 2.After determining the position P1, it need to can only determine along polar curve EL traversal search and be determined with the corresponding points position P2, P1, P2 of P1
Then d is determined.
And cloud atlas color characteristic includes following 7 characteristic quantities:
The average gray value of the channel R and channel B:
Channel B standard deviation:
The channel B degree of bias:
(R-G), (R-B) and (G-B) gray-scale deviation:
Dij=MEi-MEj (5)
Wherein, DijIndicate the gray-scale deviation in the channel i and the channel j, i, j ∈ { R, G, B }, aliIndicate pixel l in the channel pair i
The gray value answered, l ∈ { 0 ..., N-1 }, N indicates the total pixel number of whole sub-picture.
Cloud atlas textural characteristics include following 4 characteristic quantities:
Channel B energy:
Channel B contrast:
Channel B entropy:
Channel B is against variance:
In addition a shape feature: whole cloud cover rate:
CC=Ncloud/N0 (10)
Above in (6)-(10), M indicates image grayscale series, and M takes 256 here.PΔ(a, b) indicates image grayscale symbiosis square
The pixel distance of two o'clock gray value a and b in battle array.NcloudFor the number of whole Zhang Yun's figure medium cloud pixel, N0For whole valid pixels
The number (non-barrier) of point.
Using above-mentioned (1)-(10), height, color, texture, the shape feature amount of every ground cloud atlas can be calculated, it will
Characteristic quantity arranges obtain feature vector in a certain order.
One feature vector is all corresponded to for any one sky image.To make each feature vector weight phase in classification
Together, it is necessary to feature vector is normalized to section [0,100], calculated as follows:
Wherein, KiIndicate the element after normalizing in feature vector, kiIndicate the element in former feature vector, kminRepresent original
Least member in feature vector, kmaxRepresent greatest member in former feature vector.
The sky image of point good class by hand is carried out the calculating of characteristic quantity by above procedure, and last every sky image all has
One feature vector forms a feature space, namely constitutes a Cloud-Picture Characteristics data with detailed all kinds of Cloud Layer Characters
Library.
2) when predicting the following solar irradiation intensity, ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument is shot to obtain cloud atlas to current sky,
The two is distinguished using the difference of cloud layer pixel in cloud atlas and sky pixel in R, channel B value, two-value cloud atlas can be obtained,
Detailed process is as follows:
Using the normalization channel R and channel B ratio (hereinafter referred to as normalizing red-blue ratio), as shown in formula (11), wherein λnTake
Value is [0,1].For cloudy weather, bimodal state is presented in the normalizing red-blue ratio histogram of ground cloud atlas, utilizes minimum cross entropy
Method determines the normalizing red-blue ratio optimal threshold for dividing sky and cloud layer, as shown in formula (12):
B and R respectively indicates the gray value of blue and red channel.
t*=argmin {-m (0, t-1) log [u (0, t-1)]-m (t, L) log [u (t, L)] } (12)
Wherein, t*For the histogram serial number where optimal threshold, t is histogram area where normalization red-blue ratio threshold value
Between serial number,
H (i) is percent value shared by the section histogram i, and L indicates histogram sum.
Corresponding best normalization red-blue ratio threshold value can be found according to the sequence of intervals number where optimal threshold.
Each grey scale pixel value of image is traversed, and calculates the corresponding λ of each pixelnValue, λnValue is less than best threshold
Value is considered as cloud layer pixel, on the contrary then think it for sky pixel.
3) direction of motion of cloud layer is tracked using optical flow method, it is poly- using K mean value to the cloud layer towards solar motion
Class method carries out speed calculating, and reversely divides time grid along the direction of motion, the two-value cloud atlas according to obtained in step 2), meter
Calculate the percentage that cloud layer pixel in each grid accounts for grid whole pixel, as cloud cover rate.Detailed process is as follows:
Firstly, the present invention using dense optical flow method calculate cloud layer speed, using open source vision library OpenCV provide based on
The packaged calcOpticalFlowFarneback function of Gunnar Farneback algorithm solves picture in whole picture cloud atlas
The velocity field of element.
And obviously in cloud atlas there is two class of cloud layer pixel of static sky pixel and movement, need to extract an overall situation
Speed, represents the situation of cloud layer mean motion at this time, and the present invention carries out image pixel VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION situation using K mean cluster method
Cluster, finally using the center-of-mass coordinate of cloud layer pixel point set as global speed, the principle of K mean cluster is: appointing from data set
Meaning chooses K data as cluster centre, and calculates at a distance from K cluster centre of each data and this, according in data and cluster
Heart distance distributes to each object the cluster centre nearest apart from it, the object generic i.e. cluster centre
Classification.Here K takes 2.
4) cloud atlas property data base in step 1) is combined, the cloud atlas of current shooting is subjected to KNN classification, obtaining will be to too
Type belonging to the cloud layer that sun is blocked, rule of thumb the cloud layer transmitance of this cloud layer is calculated in formula.Detailed process is such as
Under:
The principle of KNN classification are as follows: each feature in the feature vector of cloud atlas to be sorted and known varieties of clouds another characteristic space to
Amount solves the Euclidean distance between obtaining, and the smallest preceding K data of distance in selected characteristic space count this K data
Corresponding data category, classification frequency of occurrence it is most be wait divide classification belonging to cloud atlas.Here K takes 3.
Therefore a Zhang Yun is schemed, we only need to calculate its feature vector, and find in feature space with its it is European away from
From the smallest 3 feature vectors.Finally, the classification being dominant in this 3 feature vectors is classification belonging to the image, obtain
The cloud layer transmitance of this cloud layer will be calculated according to 1 formula of table to type belonging to the cloud layer that the sun is blocked.
5) according to the cloud layer transmitance being calculated in the cloud cover rate and step 4) being calculated in step 3), with fine
Based on sky irradiation model, the horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity under the cloud layer is calculated, detailed process is as follows:
Referring to Fig. 3, solar radiation finally reaches ground from the sun again and is broadly divided into two processes: 1. from the sun to
The earth atmosphere upper bound；2. the earth atmosphere upper bound to ground, wherein reach the solar irradiation intensity on the horizontal plane of the atmosphere upper bound
IextIt indicates are as follows:
Wherein, I0For solar constant, i.e. 1367W/m2,For local latitude, δ is declination angle, and ω is hour angle；
τ is the correction value of atmosphere upper bound solar irradiation flux caused by solar distance changes, and is calculated by following formula:
Wherein, n is serial number of the date in 1 year.
For process 2) two classes: the i.e. cloudless condition of clear sky, He Youyun condition can be divided into again.Under the conditions of clear sky, reach big
The radiation in the gas-bearing formation upper bound will reach ground by the absorption of atmosphere, scattering and reflection, and the solar irradiation that ground measures at this time is strong
Degree is clear sky solar irradiation intensity, and irradiation attenuation degree is related by atmosphere thickness with it, as shown in the path Fig. 31；And
Under the conditions of having cloud, solar radiation also finally just will reach in ground by cloud layer in decaying a part other than Atmospheric attenuation to be passed through
Face, as shown in the path Fig. 32.
The clear sky irradiation intensity being calculated according to clear sky model be exactly it is cloudless under the conditions of horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity.
The present invention calculates clear sky irradiation intensity using empirical model Haurwitzs model.Model expression is as follows:
Ics=1098cos θz·e-0.057/cosθz (15)
Wherein, IcsFor clear sky irradiation intensity, θzFor zenith angle, the angle between sunray and ground level normal is indicated,
Zenith angle θzIt calculates as follows:
Wherein,For local latitude, ω is hour angle, and be negative in the morning, and be positive in the afternoon, and numerical values recited is equal to from 12 points of high noon
Time (in hours) is multiplied by 15 °；δ is declination angle, the line and equatorial plane of expression solar core and earth center
Angle can be calculated with following formula:
Wherein, n is serial number of the date in 1 year.
Consider influence of the cloud layer to irradiation, the horizontal plane solar irradiation Strength co-mputation under Cloudy conditions is as follows:
G (t)=Ics(t)·kt(t) (18)
Wherein, G (t) indicates ground solar irradiation intensity under Cloudy conditions, Ics(t) terrestrial surface radiation intensity under clear sky, t are indicated
Indicate the time in one day, ktIt (t) is clearness index,
kt(t)=I (t)/Ics(t),
Wherein, I (t) is the horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity of actual measurement.Pass through irradiation Acquisition Instrument acquisition in the present invention.
Clearness index can be calculated with following formula:
kt(t)=ST (t) (1-CI (t))+CI (t) CT (t) (19)
Wherein, CT (t) indicates the cloud layer transmitance of t moment, and ST (t) indicates the sky transmitance of t moment.CI (t) indicates t
The cloud cover rate at moment.
For following (t+ Δ t) the moment Cloudy conditions lower horizontal plane solar irradiation intensityCan by formula (18),
(19) from which further follow that following formula is calculated:
Wherein, sky transmitance ST (t) calculation are as follows: in the time range of irradiation intensity assessed due to the present invention,
Significant change will not occur for sky transmitance, using formula (19), according to each every 10 minutes in first 1 hour of current time
The clearness index at moment, calculates the sky transmitance at each moment, and takes maximum value therein as ST (t) needed for prediction
Value.In calculating process, clearness index is according to formula kt(t)=I (t)/Ics(t) it calculates.
Cloud layer transmitance CT (t) cloud type according to determined by step 4) is obtained from table 1.Table 1 is international meteorological group
Knit the cloud layer transmitance calculation formula of 10 class cloud layers of division.
(t+ Δ t) is that account for grid total for cloud layer pixel in the grid of the correspondence time divided in step 3) to cloud cover rate CI
The ratio of pixel, CI (t+ Δ t)=ncloud/n0。
1 International Meteorological Organization of table, 10 class layer transmitance
M is air quality in table, is the ratio of sunray actual distance and short line when by atmosphere, M=
secθz。
Embodiment
To verify model accuracy, in the morning 9 on May 14th, 2019 up to 12 when, the cloud atlas acquisition voluntarily built is utilized
Instrument (raspberry pie+fisheye camera) acquires ground cloud atlas, and shooting interval is set as 1 minute.Horizontal plane solar radiation data is then
It is collected by thermoelectric pile irradiatometer, acquisition time interval is identical as cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument shooting interval.
Remember that 55 minutes be t moment at 9 points, Δ t is 1 minute.According to the ground cloud atlas of shooting, input KNN classifier as a result, sentencing
Break as altocumulus, cloud layer transmitance CT (t)=0.546+0.024sec θ is obtained using altocumulus formula in table 1z.Sky penetrates
Rate ST (t) by 9 when 9 50 divide between every in 10 minutes 6 time points maximum clearness index determine, be determined as here
0.93.(t+ Δ t) is then calculated according to grid division situation CI.Finally, according to calculate above 9 when 55 divide rear several moment
Irradiation intensity calculation formula is as follows:
The situation of change of cloud cover rate CI in 1 hour be calculated according to nutritious obesity algorithm, as shown in Figure 4.Fig. 4
It also illustrates clearness index true value and the change of each moment clearness index predicted value at any time is calculated according to formula (19)
Change situation.
Irradiation prediction for ultra-short term, Persistence model is since its is simple and effective and is easily achieved, often by conduct
Benchmark is used to assess other model accuracies.Its core concept thinks that clearness index is held essentially constant in a short time, with public affairs
Formula is expressed as follows:
Therefore, ground solar irradiation intensity under the t+ time Δt Cloudy conditions predicted are as follows:
Fig. 5 illustrates three kinds of horizontal plane sun spokes of actually measured, Persistence model, computation model of the present invention
It changes with time situation according to intensity.On the whole, the irradiation calculating in the embodiment of the present invention based on cloud amount can be described preferably
Irradiance fluctuations situation of the solar irradiation under Cloudy conditions, average absolute value percent error are 10.2%, and root mean square percentage misses
Difference is 13.4%, can meet prediction to a certain extent and require.Wherein, Persistence model mean percent error is 7%,
Root-mean-square percent error is 8.7%.Performance of the Persistence model in error is slightly pre- better than the irradiation based on cloud amount
It surveys, but Persistence prediction has apparent hysteresis quality, cannot reflect cloud amount influence of fluctuations caused by irradiation in time,
And the irradiation based on cloud amount is predicted due to being directly included in computation model using real-time cloud amount situation as a parameter, energy
The preferably real-time fluctuations situation of reflection irradiation in real time.
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, without departing from the technical principles of the invention, several improvement and deformations can also be made, these improvement and deformations
Also it should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas characterized by comprising
Distributed ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system is built, according to certain shooting interval continuous acquisition All-sky image and is stored up
It deposits, establishes Cloud-Picture Characteristics database；
Using the distributed current sky cloud atlas of ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system photographs, being obtained according to Cloud-Picture Characteristics database will be right
Type belonging to the cloud layer that the sun is blocked；
The cloud cover rate at moment to be predicted is calculated according to current sky cloud atlas；
According to the cloud cover rate at moment to be predicted, based on irradiating model by clear sky, moment to be predicted under the cloud layer is calculated
Horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity.
2. a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas according to claim 1, which is characterized in that institute
It states distributed ground cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument system to be made of two cloud atlas Acquisition Instruments and an irradiation Acquisition Instrument, two cloud atlas are adopted
Collection instrument is used for while shooting sky cloud atlas, is separated by 1.2km, is fixed on the platform from horizontal plane 10m by metallic support respectively, institute
Irradiation Acquisition Instrument is stated for acquiring total irradiation horizontal in real time, is horizontally installed to the midpoint of two cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument lines.
3. a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas according to claim 1, which is characterized in that institute
It states and establishes Cloud-Picture Characteristics database, comprising:
Acquired All-sky image is divided into 11 classes, including cloudless clear sky and cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus, altocumulus,
Altostratus, cumulus, cumulonimbus, stratocumulus, the stratus cloud type different with 10 class of nimbostratus；
Calculate the Cloud-Picture Characteristics amount of every sub-picture；
The Cloud-Picture Characteristics amount of every sub-picture is arranged in a certain order and obtains Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector；
Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector is normalized to section [0,100]；
All image normalizations treated Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector forms a feature space, constitutes one with cloud layer classification
Cloud-Picture Characteristics database.
4. a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas according to claim 3, which is characterized in that institute
Stating Cloud-Picture Characteristics amount includes altitude feature amount, Color Characteristic, texture characteristic amount and shape feature amount, is calculated as follows:
A, using the height of cloud base as altitude feature amount:
Z=fb/ (xl-xr)
Wherein, z is the height of cloud base, and f is camera focus in cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument, and b is baseline, and xl is cloud base point in cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument
The pixel distance of C1 imaging plane, xr are pixel distance of the cloud base point in cloud atlas Acquisition Instrument C2 imaging plane, and xl-xr is view
Difference；
B, Color Characteristic includes:
The channel R and channel B average gray value:
Channel B standard deviation SDB:
Channel B degree of bias SKB:
Gray-scale deviation:
Dij=MEi-MEj
Wherein, DijFor the gray-scale deviation in the channel i and the channel j, i, j ∈ { R, G, B }, aliIndicate pixel l in the corresponding gray scale in the channel i
Value, l ∈ { 0 ..., N-1 }, N indicate the total pixel number of image；
C, texture characteristic amount includes:
Channel B ENERGY E NB:
Channel B contrast C ONB:
Channel B entropy ENTB:
Channel B is against variance HOMB:
Wherein, M indicates image grayscale series, PΔ(a, b) indicates the pixel of two o'clock gray value a and b in image grayscale co-occurrence matrix
Distance；
D, shape feature amount is indicated using cloud cover rate:
CC=Ncloud/N0
Wherein, CC indicates cloud cover rate, NcloudFor the number of whole image medium cloud pixel, N0All to have in whole image
Imitate the number of pixel.
5. a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas according to claim 4, which is characterized in that institute
It states and Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector is normalized, comprising:
Wherein, KiIndicate the element after normalizing in Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector, kiIndicate the element in primitive nebula figure feature vector, kminGeneration
Least member in table primitive nebula figure feature vector, kmaxRepresent greatest member in cloud atlas original feature vector.
6. a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas according to claim 1, which is characterized in that institute
State that obtain according to Cloud-Picture Characteristics database will be to type belonging to the cloud layer that the sun is blocked, comprising:
Calculate the feature vector of current sky cloud atlas to be sorted；
It calculates between the Cloud-Picture Characteristics vector in the feature vector and Cloud-Picture Characteristics database of current sky cloud atlas to be sorted
Euclidean distance；
Choose the smallest preceding K data of Euclidean distance；
Count this corresponding cloud type of K data, frequency of occurrence it is most be belonging to current sky cloud atlas to be sorted
Classification.
7. a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas according to claim 1, which is characterized in that institute
State the cloud cover rate that the moment to be predicted is calculated according to current sky cloud atlas, comprising:
Obtain the two-value cloud atlas of current sky cloud atlas；
Using minimum cross entropy method, the normalization red-blue ratio optimal threshold for dividing sky and cloud layer in two-value cloud atlas is determined,
t*=arg min {-m (0, t-1) log [u (0, t-1)]-m (t, L) log [u (t, L)] }
Wherein, t*For the histogram serial number where normalization red-blue ratio optimal threshold, t indicates normalization red-blue ratio threshold value institute
In histogram serial number,
H (i) is percent value shared by histogram i, and L indicates histogram sum；
Histogram sequence number where normalization red-blue ratio optimal threshold, which is found, corresponding most preferably normalizes red indigo plant
Compare threshold value；
Each grey scale pixel value of two-value cloud atlas is traversed, and calculates the corresponding normalization red-blue ratio of each pixel, normalizing
Changing red-blue ratio to be less than optimal threshold is considered as cloud layer pixel, on the contrary then be considered sky pixel；
The direction of motion of cloud layer is tracked using optical flow method, to towards solar motion cloud layer using K mean cluster method into
Interval velocity of racking calculates, and reversely divides time grid along the direction of motion, according to two-value cloud atlas, calculates cloud layer in each grid
Pixel accounts for the percentage of grid whole pixel, as cloud cover rate.
8. a kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas according to claim 1, which is characterized in that institute
State the horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity for calculating moment to be predicted under the cloud layer, comprising:
Wherein,For the horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity of future t+ time Δt under the cloud layer, (t+ Δ t) is t+ Δ t to CI
The cloud cover rate at moment,
CT (t) is the cloud layer transmitance of t moment, and the cloud layer transmitance of the 10 class cloud layers divided according to International Meteorological Organization calculates public
Formula calculates；
Ics(t+ Δ t) is the clear sky irradiation intensity of t+ time Δt, is calculated using empirical model Haurwitzs model；
ST (t) is sky transmitance, is calculated as follows:
According to the clearness index in first 1 hour of current time every 10 minutes each moment, each moment is calculated using following formula
Sky transmitance, and take the maximum value of calculating as prediction needed for sky transmitance:
kt(t)=ST (t) (1-CI (t))+CI (t) CT (t)；
Wherein, kt(t) it is clearness index, calculates as follows:
kt(t)=I (t)/Ics(t)
Wherein, I (t) is by the horizontal plane solar irradiation intensity of irradiation Acquisition Instrument actual measurement, Ics(t) it is irradiated for the clear sky of t moment
Intensity is calculated using empirical model Haurwitzs model.
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