CN109344491A - A kind of solar irradiance modeling method considering weather state change and cloud cover - Google Patents
A kind of solar irradiance modeling method considering weather state change and cloud cover Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of solar irradiance modeling method for considering weather state change and cloud cover, which considers that cloud cover variation is influenced on existing for solar irradiance on the basis of clear sky irradiation level and Changes in weather；Atmosphere cloud amount data based on actual observation, it defines the concept of a kind of cloud cover and cloud cover fluctuation range and provides its detailed calculation method, this method is different from the prior art the only single influence for considering weather or cloud layer to solar irradiance, but from the angle of weather, analyze the cloud cover range under the conditions of different weather, weather and two class factor of cloud cover are organically combined, and propose detailed step, it has accurately reflected and has comprehensively considered the variation of solar irradiance fluctuation caused by Changes in weather and cloud cover, it has obtained tending to actual annual solar irradiance temporal model.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of solar irradiance modeling methods, it is contemplated that the variation of weather pattern and cloud cover are to the sun
The influence of irradiation level, this method solve traditional solar irradiance time series models can not reflect lacking for its own fluctuation
It falls into, it is higher with practical solar irradiance curve compactness, belong to solar irradiance assessment technology field.
Background technique
With the rapid development of our country's economy, increasing to the demand of the energy, and traditional energy is because excessive open
It adopts and increasingly deficient, meanwhile, consuming excessively for traditional energy also brings very detrimental effect to our living environment, because
This reasonable utilization renewable energy has become one of the important channel improved the ecological environment for alleviating energy crisis.It is numerous can
In the renewable sources of energy, solar energy is again because its own randomness and fluctuation are relatively small and resourceful, it has also become industrial or agricultural
And the clean reproducible energy of the energy-saving most development prospect in fields such as building.It is utilized in field in solar energy development, the sun
The modeling method of irradiation level model is the basis of determining photovoltaic developmental research, and to solar energy optical-thermal, solar photovoltaic utilization efficiency into
The foundation of row theory analysis, accurately some regional annual solar irradiance variation, which can be modeled, just seems especially heavy
It wants.However the model of traditional solar irradiance all only simply establishes the relationship of solar irradiance and time, curve is relatively flat
It is sliding, it can not reflect the fluctuating change of the irradiation level variation and irradiation level caused by cloud cover of different weather, and then go out to photovoltaic
The prediction of power model also has a huge impact, larger with actual curve gap.
Summary of the invention
To solve the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention considers two kinds of uncertain factors of Changes in weather and cloud cover,
Establish the solar irradiance model with continuity and fluctuation.According to information such as local geographical coordinate, height above sea level, it is calculated
Globalradiation intensity when somewhere in plane, and this irradiation level is defined as clear sky irradiation level, it is every in 1 year by calculating
The clear sky irradiation level at its per moment has just obtained the annual clear sky solar irradiance timing sequence for being able to reflect sunrise sunset variation
Column；Then the weather history situation in this area 1 year is obtained, it is for statistical analysis, it is general to establish a four state weather transfer
Rate matrix can describe the changing rule of weather according to the matrix, the probability of happening of certain day weather be calculated, for difference
Weather obtain consider weather conditions solar irradiation degree series；The atmosphere cloud amount data in this area 1 year are obtained, according to number
According to the cloud cover fluctuation range calculated under different weather, and then obtain the sun that state of weather and cloud cover are considered in one day
Irradiation level time series.
The technical solution that the present invention solves the technical problem is to design a kind of consideration weather state change and cloud cover
Solar irradiance modeling method, which includes the following steps:
Step 101: according to local geographical coordinate, height above sea level and number of days, be obtained by calculation this area mean solar time,
True solar time, sun Chi Jiao, sunrise sunset hour angle, solar elevation, solar incident angle and air quality；
Step 102: calculating sunlight and enter the radiation intensity except atmosphere, calculated according to the data that step 101 obtains
Sunlight passes through the direct solar radiation transparency coefficient and scattering transparency coefficient when atmosphere, and then obtains beam radia intensity
With scattering radiation intensity, the two and as somewhere when plane on Globalradiation intensity, and this irradiation level is defined as
Clear sky irradiation level；By calculating the clear sky irradiation level at daily per moment in 1 year, just obtain being able to reflect sunrise sunset variation
Annual clear sky solar irradiance time series；
Step 103: weather pattern being divided into fine day, cloudy, cloudy, rainy day, establishes four kinds of weather pattern metastasis models；It obtains
The weather history situation in this area 1 year is taken, it is for statistical analysis to obtain weather transition probability matrix, according to the four of first day
The probability that kind of weather pattern occurs respectively be multiplied with weather transition probability matrix obtain second day four kinds of weather patterns hair
Raw probability, then is multiplied with weather transition probability matrix Ji Wei the weather probability of happening in third day, and so on can predict entirely
Then the probability that four kinds of weather of every day in year occurs carries out random sampling and just obtains daily weather pattern；
Step 104: the weather pattern obtained according to step 103, the clear sky solar irradiance time series on the day of are superior
It is the time series for considering the solar irradiance of weather conditions with a proportionality coefficient；
Step 105: obtain the history atmosphere cloud amount data in this area 1 year, using 15min as interval it is adjacent to front and back when
It carves cloud amount to be compared, the rule of fluctuation is embodied by cloud cover, then to the annual all clouds for finding out come daily
It hides coefficient to carry out being divided into four classes according to the weather pattern on the same day, then makes even respectively to the positive value of all kinds of middle cloud covers with negative value
Mean value is cloud cover fluctuation range the section definition between the average value of negative value and the average value of positive value；
Step 106: for different weather patterns, random sampling is carried out in cloud cover fluctuation range, at interval of
15min samples to obtain a cloud cover, and the cloud cover at the moment is multiplied with the solar irradiance of last moment and is added
The clear sky solar irradiance at the moment, the as moment consider the sun spoke of fluctuating change caused by weather conditions and cloud cover
Illumination, and then just obtain the solar irradiance time series on the same day；
Step 107: number of days adds one, continues cycling through step 101 to step 106, until obtaining annual 365 days solar irradiations
Time series is spent to get the 1 year solar irradiance temporal model in this area.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the invention are that: solar irradiance prediction technique of the present invention clear sky irradiate
Consider that cloud cover variation is influenced on existing for solar irradiance on the basis of degree and Changes in weather；Atmosphere based on actual observation
Cloud amount data define the concept of a kind of cloud cover and cloud cover fluctuation range and provide its detailed calculation method, should
Method be different from it is only single in the prior art consider the influence to solar irradiance of weather or cloud layer, but from the angle of weather
It sets out, analyzes the cloud cover range under the conditions of different weather, weather and two class factor of cloud cover are organically combined,
And detailed step is proposed, it has accurately reflected and has comprehensively considered the fluctuation of solar irradiance caused by Changes in weather and cloud cover
Property variation.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below
There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only this
Some embodiments of invention for those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts, can be with
It obtains other drawings based on these drawings.
Four kinds of weather pattern metastasis model figures that Fig. 1 designs for the modeling method of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the flow chart of the modeling method of the invention；
Fig. 3 is the clear sky irradiation level timing diagram in embodiment；Wherein, Fig. 3 (a) is the 1st day clear sky irradiation level timing diagram；Figure
3 (b) be the 180th day clear sky irradiation level timing diagram；
Fig. 4 is the solar irradiance timing diagram that cloud cover is considered under four kinds of weather patterns in embodiment；Wherein, Fig. 4
(a) be fine day some day when solar irradiance timing diagram；Solar irradiance timing diagram of the Fig. 4 (b) for some day when cloudy；Figure
4 (c) be the cloudy day some day when solar irradiance timing diagram；Solar irradiance timing diagram when Fig. 4 (d) is rainy day some day；
Fig. 5 is embodiment using the resulting annual solar irradiance temporal model figure of the modeling method of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It is illustrated in figure 2 the present invention and considers that Changes in weather and cloud cover establish the process of solar irradiance temporal model
Figure.
The present invention provides solar irradiance modeling method (the referred to as modeling of a kind of consideration weather state change and cloud cover
Method), which includes the following steps:
Step 101: according to local geographical coordinate, height above sea level and number of days, be obtained by calculation this area mean solar time,
True solar time, sun Chi Jiao, sunrise sunset hour angle, solar elevation, solar incident angle and air quality；
Step 102: calculating sunlight and enter the radiation intensity except atmosphere, calculated according to the data that step 101 obtains
Sunlight passes through the direct solar radiation transparency coefficient and scattering transparency coefficient when atmosphere, and then obtains beam radia intensity
With scattering radiation intensity, the two and as somewhere when plane on Globalradiation intensity, and this irradiation level is defined as
Clear sky irradiation level.By calculating the clear sky irradiation level at daily per moment in 1 year, just obtain being able to reflect sunrise sunset variation
Annual clear sky solar irradiance time series；
Step 103: weather pattern being divided into fine day, cloudy, cloudy, rainy day, establishes four kinds of weather pattern metastasis models, such as
Fig. 1.The weather history situation in this area 1 year is obtained, it is for statistical analysis to obtain weather transition probability matrix, according to first
The probability that it four kinds of weather patterns occur respectively is multiplied with weather transition probability matrix obtains second day four kinds of weather class
The probability of happening of type, then be multiplied with weather transition probability matrix Ji Wei the weather probability of happening in third day, and so on can be pre-
The probability that four kinds of weather of annual every day occurs is measured, then random sampling is carried out and just obtains daily weather pattern；
Step 104: the weather pattern obtained according to step 103, the clear sky solar irradiance time series on the day of are superior
It is the time series for considering the solar irradiance of weather conditions with a proportionality coefficient；
Step 105: obtain the history atmosphere cloud amount data in this area 1 year, using 15min as interval it is adjacent to front and back when
It carves cloud amount to be compared, the rule of fluctuation is embodied by cloud cover, then to the annual all clouds for finding out come daily
It hides coefficient to carry out being divided into four classes according to the weather pattern on the same day, then makes even respectively to the positive value of all kinds of middle cloud covers with negative value
Mean value is cloud cover fluctuation range the section definition between the average value of negative value and the average value of positive value；
Step 106: for different weather patterns, random sampling is carried out in cloud cover fluctuation range, at interval of
15min samples to obtain a cloud cover, and the cloud cover at the moment is multiplied with the solar irradiance of last moment and is added
The clear sky solar irradiance at the moment, the as moment consider the sun spoke of fluctuating change caused by weather conditions and cloud cover
Illumination, and then just obtain the solar irradiance time series on the same day；
Step 107: number of days adds one, continues cycling through step 101 to 106, when obtaining annual 365 days solar irradiances
Sequence sequence is to get this area's whole year solar irradiance temporal model.
Calculation method involved in this patent is as follows:
(1) foundation of clear sky solar irradiance model:
The outer solar irradiance I of atmosphere0Calculation formula:
Wherein, Is is solar constant, and n is certain day chronological order in 1 year.
Solar elevation α calculation formula:
In formula, φ is local latitude, and δ is declination angle, and ω is solar hour angle.
Ground direct sunlight irradiation level Ib calculation formula:
Ib=I0τbsinα (3)
In formula, τbFor direct projection transparency coefficient.
Ground sun scattering irradiance IdCalculation formula:
In formula, MhFor air quality, k is atmospheric transparency parameter.
Horizontal plane clear sky solar irradiance ItAre as follows:
It=Ib+Id (5)
The method for building up of (2) four kinds of weather pattern metastasis models:
Weather pattern is divided into fine day, cloudy, cloudy, rainy day, number is 1,2,3,4 respectively, is shifted between four kinds of weather
Probability matrix are as follows:
If first day four kinds of respective probability of happening of weather are as follows:
w1=[w11 w12 w13 w14] (7)
Then second day four kinds of weather probability of happening are as follows:
w2=w1×P (8)
N-th day four kinds of weather probability of happening is analogized with secondary are as follows:
wn=wn-1×P (9)
With the probability of happening of this available whole year daily four kinds of weather.Then non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used,
It is sampled out according to the probability of happening of weather daily weather pattern.
(3) calculating of cloud cover range:
According to the historical data of local cloud amount, 96 sampled points are taken to obtain cloud amount C by interval of 15min in one dayi(i=
1,2,3 ... 96), and the variation of different sampling instant cloud layers is defined as cloud cover kc:
The annual all cloud covers come that find out daily are carried out being divided into four classes according to the weather pattern on the same day, then to each
The positive value of cloud cover is averaged respectively with negative value in class, and the section between the average value of negative value and the average value of positive value is determined
Justice is cloud cover fluctuation range.
Embodiment
The present embodiment is with 101.74 degree of east longitude, 36.56 degree of north latitude, for the area that 2261 meters of height above sea level, to this area's whole year
Solar irradiance time series is simulated.Fig. 3 (a) and (b) are respectively the 1st day and the 180th day in 1 year clear sky sun spoke
Illumination sequence, it is seen that there is a big difference for moment highest solar irradiance at noon, and the time of sunrise and sunset
There is apparent difference.
The state of weather transfer matrix obtained according to historical weather data obtains annual daily weather class through oversampling
Then type obtains examining under different weather type with clear sky solar irradiance multiplied by the radiation proportion and cloud cover of corresponding weather
The fluctuation solar irradiation degree series for considering cloud layer masking, if Fig. 4 is the solar irradiance for considering cloud cover under certain day four kinds of weather
Sequence, it can be seen that this method can accurately reflect the wave characteristic of the solar irradiance under different weather type, and not on the same day
There are apparent differences for highest solar irradiance under gas bar part on the same day, are more in line with reality compared with traditional prediction technique
Demand has good application value.Annual solar irradiance time series is as shown in Figure 5.
Specific embodiment is applied in the present invention, and principle and implementation of the present invention are described, above embodiments
Explanation be merely used to help understand method and its core concept of the invention；At the same time, for those skilled in the art,
According to the thought of the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation manner and application range, in conclusion in this specification
Appearance should not be construed as limiting the invention.
The present invention does not address place and is suitable for the prior art.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of solar irradiance modeling method for considering weather state change and cloud cover, which is characterized in that the modeling side
Method includes the following steps:
Step 101: according to local geographical coordinate, height above sea level and number of days, mean solar time, very too of this area is obtained by calculation
When positive, sun Chi Jiao, sunrise sunset hour angle, solar elevation, solar incident angle and air quality；
Step 102: calculating sunlight and enter the radiation intensity except atmosphere, calculate the sun according to the data that step 101 obtains
Light passes through the direct solar radiation transparency coefficient and scattering transparency coefficient when atmosphere, and then obtains beam radia intensity and dissipate
Penetrate radiation intensity, the two and as somewhere when plane on Globalradiation intensity, and this irradiation level is defined as clear sky
Irradiation level；By calculating the clear sky irradiation level at daily per moment in 1 year, just obtain being able to reflect the complete of sunrise sunset variation
The clear sky solar irradiance time series in year；
Step 103: weather pattern being divided into fine day, cloudy, cloudy, rainy day, establishes four kinds of weather pattern metastasis models；Obtaining should
Weather history situation in 1 year regional, it is for statistical analysis to obtain weather transition probability matrix, according to first day four kinds of day
The probability that gas type occurs respectively be multiplied with weather transition probability matrix four kinds of weather patterns for obtaining second day generation it is general
Rate, then be multiplied with weather transition probability matrix Ji Wei the weather probability of happening in third day, and so on can predict it is annual every
Then the probability that one day four kinds of weather occurs carries out random sampling and just obtains daily weather pattern；
Step 104: the weather pattern obtained according to step 103, multiplied by one on the clear sky solar irradiance time series on the day of
A proportionality coefficient is the time series for considering the solar irradiance of weather conditions；
Step 105: obtaining the history atmosphere cloud amount data in this area 1 year, be interval to front and back adjacent moment cloud using 15min
Amount is compared, and the rule of fluctuation is embodied by cloud cover, then to the annual all obnubilation systems for finding out come daily
Number carries out being divided into four classes according to the weather pattern on the same day, then is averaged respectively to the positive value of all kinds of middle cloud covers with negative value
Value is cloud cover fluctuation range the section definition between the average value of negative value and the average value of positive value；
Step 106: for different weather patterns, random sampling is carried out in cloud cover fluctuation range, is taken out at interval of 15min
Sample obtains a cloud cover, and the cloud cover at the moment is multiplied with the solar irradiance of last moment along with the moment
Clear sky solar irradiance, the as moment consider the solar irradiance of fluctuating change caused by weather conditions and cloud cover, into
And just obtain the solar irradiance time series on the same day；
Step 107: number of days adds one, continues cycling through step 101 to step 106, when obtaining annual 365 days solar irradiances
Sequence sequence is to get this area's whole year solar irradiance temporal model.
2. a kind of solar irradiance modeling method for considering weather state change and cloud cover according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that, the method for building up of four kinds of weather pattern metastasis models specifically:
Weather pattern is divided into fine day, cloudy, cloudy, rainy day, number is 1,2,3,4 respectively, transition probability between four kinds of weather
Matrix are as follows:
If first day four kinds of respective probability of happening of weather are as follows:
w1=[w11 w12 w13 w14] (7)
Then second day four kinds of weather probability of happening are as follows:
w2=w1×P (8)
N-th day four kinds of weather probability of happening is analogized with secondary are as follows:
wn=wn-1×P (9)
With the probability of happening of this available whole year daily four kinds of weather；Then non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used, according to
The probability of happening of weather is sampled out daily weather pattern.
3. a kind of solar irradiance modeling method for considering weather state change and cloud cover according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that, the cloud cover in the step 105 are as follows: according to the historical data of local cloud amount, between being with 15min in one day
Every taking 96 sampled points to obtain cloud amount Ci(i=1,2,3 ... 96), and the variation of different sampling instant cloud layers is defined as cloud cover
kc:
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| CN111047076A (en) * | 2019-11-21 | 2020-04-21 | 国网甘肃省电力公司 | Photovoltaic short-term power forecasting method based on sunflower number 8 satellite cloud picture |
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| CN110514298A (en) * | 2019-08-30 | 2019-11-29 | 河海大学常州校区 | A kind of solar irradiation strength calculation method based on ground cloud atlas |
| CN111160602A (en) * | 2019-11-21 | 2020-05-15 | 国网甘肃省电力公司 | Photovoltaic ultra-short term power forecasting method based on sunflower number 8 satellite cloud picture |
| CN111047076A (en) * | 2019-11-21 | 2020-04-21 | 国网甘肃省电力公司 | Photovoltaic short-term power forecasting method based on sunflower number 8 satellite cloud picture |
| CN111121956A (en) * | 2019-12-02 | 2020-05-08 | 中国科学技术大学先进技术研究院 | Photovoltaic agricultural solar radiation amount analysis method based on flat single-axis tracking support |
| CN113031110A (en) * | 2019-12-25 | 2021-06-25 | 国创新能源汽车智慧能源装备创新中心(江苏)有限公司 | Cloud layer monitoring method and device and photovoltaic power prediction method and device |
| CN113031110B (en) * | 2019-12-25 | 2024-01-23 | 国创移动能源创新中心(江苏)有限公司 | Cloud layer monitoring method and device, photovoltaic power prediction method and device |
| CN111999523A (en) * | 2020-08-18 | 2020-11-27 | 盐城工学院 | Cloud motion vector measuring device and method |
| CN113075940A (en) * | 2021-03-24 | 2021-07-06 | 阳光电源（上海）有限公司 | Photovoltaic string tracking support control method and related device |
| CN113075940B (en) * | 2021-03-24 | 2022-07-12 | 阳光电源（上海）有限公司 | Photovoltaic string tracking support control method and related device |
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