CN110503240A - A kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction technique and device - Google Patents
A kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction technique and device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction technique and devices, this method carries out clustering for history dock repair data, obtain every engineering each dock repair rank and its in requisition for dock repair resource occupation time, while obtaining the corresponding ship status index of each dock repair rank using Reverse Analysis Way of Trouble;Then the dock repair rank of ship to be repaired is obtained in combination with the judge of operator according to ship current operating conditions index;Finally according to the dock repair resources requirement of dock repair level prediction ship to be repaired.The present invention carries out the requirement forecasting for repairing the occupancy type resource such as required personnel, facility, equipment in depressed place maintenance process suitable for ship, using fusion historical data and the method for real time information, establish the statistical weight prediction model based on fuzzy evaluation, complete requirement forecasting modeling technique, by carrying out data fusion to history, real time data with certainty and uncertainty, the requirement forecasting that maintenance of the vessel occupies class resource is provided.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to maintenance of the vessel resources technical fields, are specifically related to a kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction
Method and device.
Background technique
Maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction mainly provides basis to carry out the configuration of ship dock repair Maintenance Resource configuration optimization
Data, and the maintenance project for further working out apparel for business department provides scientific theoretical foundation and feasible reference side
Case, the plan for enabling it to work out preferably meet ship use and maintenance requirements.It is big under the premise of ensureing ship availability
Width reduces life cycle cost, generates more significant economic benefit.Currently, in terms of maintenance of the vessel resource, studying more is
Maintenance Resource type and quantity during shipbuilding determine method, and in the mathematical model established, spininess repairs consumption-type
Distributing rationally for resource conducts a research, such as standby redundancy demand model, and to manpower, facility needed for maintenance of the vessel, equipment etc.
Occupancy type the Study on Resources is less.
Summary of the invention
The present invention for the technical problems in the prior art, provide a kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction technique and
Device.
The technical scheme to solve the above technical problems is that
On the one hand, the present invention provides a kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction technique, comprising the following steps:
For history dock repair data carry out clustering, obtain every engineering each dock repair rank and its in requisition for depressed place
Resource occupation time is repaired, while obtaining the corresponding ship status index of each dock repair rank using Reverse Analysis Way of Trouble;
According to ship current operating conditions index in combination with the judge of operator, the dock repair grade of ship to be repaired is obtained
Not;
According to the dock repair resources requirement of dock repair level prediction ship to be repaired.
Further, the history dock repair data include: the profession, rank and quantity of technical staff;Operating personnel's is special
Industry, rank and quantity;Ensure type, model, scale and the quantity of equipment;Type, model, scale and the quantity of support facility.
Further, the history dock repair data that are directed to carry out clustering, obtain each dock repair rank of every engineering
And its in requisition for dock repair resource occupation time, comprising:
Ship total dock repair time is divided into three ranks: it is general, more serious, serious, calculate statistical averages at different levels
Time corresponds to overall dock repair dock repair resource occupation times at different levels with this;Similarly the dock repair of Ship ' items engineering is at different levels
Other dock repair resource occupation time.
Further, the clustering is specific as follows:
Wherein, xijIndicate holding time when the i-th class resource jth maintenance of the vessel;xiIndicate the i-th class resource occupation time
Average value;N indicates that the history collected repairs ships quantity;σiIndicate the mean square deviation of the i-th class resource occupation time;
Then work as xij-xi< σiWhen, xijBelong to general rank;
Work as σi≤xij-xi2 σ of <iWhen, xijBelong to more serious rank;
As 2 σi≤xij-xiWhen, xijBelong to severity level.
Further, it is described according to ship current operating conditions index in combination with the judge of operator, obtain wait tie up
The dock repair rank of shiprepair oceangoing ship, comprising:
Establish following assessment models:
ZHIBIAO2i=0.4ZHIBIAO1+0.6JZPGi
Wherein:
T0, T1, S0 are constant, indicate maintenance of the vessel after to repair next time theoretical hours underway, interval time, boat
Row mileage;
WXJB0 indicates the dock repair rank of warship totality;
WXJB1iIndicate the dock repair rank of i-th engineering of the warship;
HSJ indicates hours underway after the maintenance of warship last time;
HLZ indicates shipping kilometre after the maintenance of warship last time;
CWXSJ indicates the time after the maintenance of warship last time;
JZPGiIndicate warship captain for the assessment in the warship use process.
Further, every engineering includes at least hull, ship electromechanics, electrical engineering, piping engineering, occupies dress and apply
Fill one of engineering or a variety of.
Further, the dock repair resources requirement according to dock repair level prediction ship to be repaired, comprising:
The statistical weight prediction model based on fuzzy message is established, according to the dock repair rank and each dock repair of ship to be repaired
Rank in requisition for dock repair resource occupation time, treat maintenance ship dock repair resources requirement predicted.
Further, the statistical weight prediction model based on fuzzy message, such as following formula:
ZYSLi=α JIBIE1SLi+βJIBIE2SLi+γJIBIE3SLi
In formula, ZYSLiIndicate the quantity required of the i-th class resource in maintenance process;
JIBIE1SLi、JIBIE2SLi、JIBIE3SLiIt then respectively indicates the i-th class resource and corresponds to dock repair rank generally, relatively sternly
Weight, serious historical statistics average value;
α, β, γ are weighting coefficient, according to historical experience value.
Preferably, α, β, γ value are as follows in the statistical weight prediction model:
On the other hand, the present invention also provides a kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction meanss, comprising:
Cluster Analysis module obtains each dock repair grade of every engineering for carrying out clustering for history dock repair data
Not and its in requisition for dock repair resource occupation time, while obtaining the corresponding ship shape of each dock repair rank using Reverse Analysis Way of Trouble
State index;
Dock repair level assessment module is obtained for the judge according to ship current operating conditions index in combination with operator
To the dock repair rank of ship to be repaired;
Requirement forecasting module, for the dock repair resources requirement according to dock repair level prediction ship to be repaired.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are: the situation that the present invention is insufficient for current occupancy type resource requirement research, carries out
Occupancy type resource requirement research, proposes the method in conjunction with historical data and ship real time data to be repaired, passes through data fusion
Mode carry out requirement forecasting.For the empirical data of history, same type data are mainly divided into three by the way of cluster
A rank calculates assembly averages at different levels, and the statistical value of each rank of dock repair (general, more serious, serious) is corresponded to this;It is right
Data are assessed in the present condition for ships to be repaired in real time, are provided using fuzzy synthetic evaluation model.
The present invention carries out suitable for ship repairs the occupancy type such as required personnel, facility, equipment money maintenance process in depressed place
The requirement forecasting in source establishes the statistical weight prediction based on fuzzy evaluation using fusion historical data and the method for real time information
Model completes requirement forecasting modeling technique, by carrying out data to history, real time data with certainty and uncertainty
Fusion provides the requirement forecasting that maintenance of the vessel occupies class resource.Research achievement is required each when can not only instruct maintenance of the vessel
Class resource allocation proposal, additionally it is possible to instruct the resource constructions such as personnel, facility, the equipment of maintenance of the vessel producer.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the method for the present invention flow chart;
Fig. 2 is apparatus of the present invention structure chart.
Specific embodiment
The principle and features of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, and the given examples are served only to explain the present invention, and
It is non-to be used to limit the scope of the invention.
As shown in Figure 1, the present invention provides a kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction technique, comprising the following steps:
For history dock repair data carry out clustering, obtain every engineering each dock repair rank and its in requisition for depressed place
Resource occupation time is repaired, while obtaining the corresponding ship status index of each dock repair rank using Reverse Analysis Way of Trouble;
According to ship current operating conditions index in combination with the judge of operator, the dock repair grade of ship to be repaired is obtained
Not;
According to the dock repair resources requirement of dock repair level prediction ship to be repaired.
Specifically, firstly, consider requirement of the Maintenance Resource requirement forecasting to empirical data, historical data acquisition and pre- is proposed
Processing method, acquisition data type include: the profession, rank and quantity of technical staff;Profession, rank and the number of operating personnel
Amount;Ensure type, model (scale) and the quantity of equipment;Type, model (scale) and the quantity of support facility.For data
Ship total dock repair time (excluding the waiting time) is divided into three ranks mainly by the way of cluster by pretreatment, is calculated each
The statistical average time of rank corresponds to the dock repair time of each rank of overall dock repair (general, more serious, serious) with this;Similarly may be used
To obtain each rank of dock repair of ship items engineering (hull, electrical engineering, piping engineering, occupies dress and coating project at ship electromechanics)
The dock repair time of (general, more serious, serious).
For example, to certain ship dock repair input data carry out rough estimates, as input depressed place in engineering structure, bow sternpost, container,
Suction box overhauling project needs hull profession 1 people of intermediate engineer, and 13 days, then statistics is engineering structure, bow sternpost, cabin in depressed place
It was 13 (man days) that cabinet, suction box overhauling project, which need the intermediate engineer's quantity required of hull profession,.
Further, the clustering is specific as follows:
Wherein, xijIndicate holding time when the i-th class resource jth maintenance of the vessel;xiIndicate the i-th class resource occupation time
Average value;N indicates that the history collected repairs ships quantity;σiIndicate the mean square deviation of the i-th class resource occupation time;
Then work as xij-xi< σiWhen, xijBelong to general rank;
Work as σi≤xij-xi2 σ of <iWhen, xijBelong to more serious rank;
As 2 σi≤xij-xiWhen, xijBelong to severity level.
Secondly, considering that the requirement of maintenance ship real time data is treated in Maintenance Resource requirement forecasting, ship current state is proposed
Appraisal procedure establishes current state assessment models.Treat maintenance ship carry out entry evaluation, nothing but exactly two aspect ask
Topic: first is in the conventional operation i.e. some parameters such as runing time, hours underway, navigation of last time maintenance so far of the ship
Journey etc.;Second is the preliminary judgement for judging i.e. captain of operator as whether certain systems are operating abnormally or all run just
Often etc..Accordingly, we establish following assessment models:
ZHIBIAO2i=0.4ZHIBIAO1+0.6JZPGi
Wherein:
T0, T1, S0 are constant, indicate maintenance of the vessel after to repair next time theoretical hours underway, interval time, boat
Row mileage;
WXJB0 indicates the dock repair rank of warship totality;
WXJB1iIndicate i-th engineering of the warship (hull, electrical engineering, piping engineering, occupies dress and coating project at ship electromechanics)
Dock repair rank;
HSJ indicates hours underway (hour) after the maintenance of warship last time;
HLZ indicates shipping kilometre (in the sea) after the maintenance of warship last time;
CWXSJ indicates the time (day) after the maintenance of warship last time;
JZPGiWarship captain is indicated for the assessment in the warship use process, the corresponding hull of value 1,2,3, ship are electromechanical, electric
Gas engineering, piping engineering, residence fills and the situation of coating project is general, more serious, serious.
Finally, establish the statistical weight prediction model based on fuzzy message, according to the dock repair rank of ship to be repaired and
Each dock repair rank in requisition for dock repair resource occupation time, treat maintenance ship dock repair resources requirement predicted.
The statistical weight prediction model based on fuzzy message, such as following formula:
ZYSLi=α JIBIE1SLi+βJIBIE2SLi+γJIBIE3SLi
In formula, ZYSLiIndicate the quantity required of the i-th class resource in maintenance process;
JIBIE1SLi、JIBIE2SLi、JIBIE3SLiIt then respectively indicates the i-th class resource and corresponds to dock repair rank generally, relatively sternly
Weight, serious historical statistics average value;
α, β, γ are weighting coefficient, according to historical experience value.
Preferably, α, β, γ value are as follows in the statistical weight prediction model:
The present invention carries out suitable for ship repairs the occupancy type such as required personnel, facility, equipment money maintenance process in depressed place
The requirement forecasting in source establishes the statistical weight prediction based on fuzzy evaluation using fusion historical data and the method for real time information
Model completes requirement forecasting modeling technique, by carrying out data to history, real time data with certainty and uncertainty
Fusion provides the requirement forecasting that maintenance of the vessel occupies class resource.Research achievement is required each when can not only instruct maintenance of the vessel
Class resource allocation proposal, additionally it is possible to instruct the resource constructions such as personnel, facility, the equipment of maintenance of the vessel producer.
On the other hand, the present invention also provides a kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction meanss, as shown in Figure 2, comprising:
Cluster Analysis module obtains each dock repair grade of every engineering for carrying out clustering for history dock repair data
Not and its in requisition for dock repair resource occupation time, while obtaining the corresponding ship shape of each dock repair rank using Reverse Analysis Way of Trouble
State index;
Dock repair level assessment module is obtained for the judge according to ship current operating conditions index in combination with operator
To the dock repair rank of ship to be repaired;
Requirement forecasting module, for the dock repair resources requirement according to dock repair level prediction ship to be repaired.
The situation that the present invention is insufficient for current occupancy type resource requirement research, has carried out occupancy type resource requirement research,
The method in conjunction with historical data and ship real time data to be repaired is proposed, requirement forecasting is carried out by way of data fusion.
For the empirical data of history, same type data are mainly divided into three ranks by the way of cluster, are calculated at different levels
Assembly average corresponds to the statistical value of each rank of dock repair (general, more serious, serious) with this;For real-time ship to be repaired
As-Is Assessment data, are provided using fuzzy synthetic evaluation model.
The foregoing is merely presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, it is all in spirit of the invention and
Within principle, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on be should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction technique, which comprises the following steps:
For history dock repair data carry out clustering, obtain every engineering each dock repair rank and its in requisition for dock repair provide
Source holding time, while the corresponding ship status index of each dock repair rank is obtained using Reverse Analysis Way of Trouble;
According to ship current operating conditions index in combination with the judge of operator, the dock repair rank of ship to be repaired is obtained;
According to the dock repair resources requirement of dock repair level prediction ship to be repaired.
2. the method according to claim 1, wherein the history dock repair data include: technical staff profession,
Rank and quantity;Profession, rank and the quantity of operating personnel;Ensure type, model, scale and the quantity of equipment;Support facility
Type, model, scale and quantity.
3. the method according to claim 1, wherein described carry out clustering for history dock repair data,
Obtain every engineering each dock repair rank and its in requisition for dock repair resource occupation time, comprising:
Ship total dock repair time is divided into three ranks: it is general, more serious, serious, the statistical average times at different levels are calculated,
Overall dock repair dock repair resource occupation times at different levels are corresponded to this;The similarly dock repair of Ship ' items engineering depressed places at different levels
Repair resource occupation time.
4. according to the method described in claim 3, it is characterized in that, the clustering is specific as follows:
Wherein, xijIndicate holding time when the i-th class resource jth maintenance of the vessel;xiIndicate that the i-th class resource occupation time is average
Value;N indicates that the history collected repairs ships quantity;σiIndicate the mean square deviation of the i-th class resource occupation time;
Then work as xij-xi< σiWhen, xijBelong to general rank;
Work as σi≤xij-xi2 σ of <iWhen, xijBelong to more serious rank;
As 2 σi≤xij-xiWhen, xijBelong to severity level.
5. the method according to claim 1, wherein described tie simultaneously according to ship current operating conditions index
The judge of closing operation person obtains the dock repair rank of ship to be repaired, comprising:
Establish following assessment models:
ZHIBIAO2i=0.4ZHIBIAO1+0.6JZPGi
Wherein:
T0, T1, S0 are constant, indicate after maintenance of the vessel to repair next time theoretical hours underway, interval time, in navigation
Journey;
WXJB0 indicates the dock repair rank of warship totality;
WXJB1iIndicate the dock repair rank of i-th engineering of the warship;
HSJ indicates hours underway after the maintenance of warship last time;
HLZ indicates shipping kilometre after the maintenance of warship last time;
CWXSJ indicates the time after the maintenance of warship last time;
JZPGiIndicate warship captain for the assessment in the warship use process.
6. method according to claim 1-5, which is characterized in that every engineering include at least hull,
One of ship electromechanics, electrical engineering, piping engineering, residence dress and coating project are a variety of.
7. the method according to claim 1, wherein the depressed place according to dock repair level prediction ship to be repaired
Repair resources requirement, comprising:
The statistical weight prediction model based on fuzzy message is established, according to the dock repair rank of ship to be repaired and each dock repair rank
To in requisition for dock repair resource occupation time, treat maintenance ship dock repair resources requirement predicted.
8. the method according to the description of claim 7 is characterized in that the statistical weight based on fuzzy message predicts mould
Type, such as following formula:
ZYSLi=α JIBIE1SLi+βJIBIE2SLi+γJIBIE3SLi
In formula, ZYSLiIndicate the quantity required of the i-th class resource in maintenance process;
JIBIE1SLi、JIBIE2SLi、JIBIE3SLiThen respectively indicating the i-th class resource, to correspond to dock repair rank general, more serious, tight
The historical statistics average value of weight;
α, β, γ are weighting coefficient, according to historical experience value.
9. according to the method described in claim 8, it is characterized in that, α, β, γ value is such as in the statistical weight prediction model
Under:
。
10. a kind of maintenance of the vessel resource requirement prediction meanss characterized by comprising
Cluster Analysis module, for for history dock repair data carry out clustering, obtain every engineering each dock repair rank and
Its in requisition for dock repair resource occupation time, while obtaining the corresponding ship status of each dock repair rank using Reverse Analysis Way of Trouble and referring to
Mark;
Dock repair level assessment module, for the judge according to ship current operating conditions index in combination with operator, obtain to
Repair the dock repair rank of ship;
Requirement forecasting module, for the dock repair resources requirement according to dock repair level prediction ship to be repaired.
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CN111723255A (en) * | 2020-05-08 | 2020-09-29 | 中国人民解放军海军特色医学中心 | Construction method of ship control room operation task completion time database |
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