CN105404940B - Maintenance resource prediction method for ship use stage - Google Patents

Maintenance resource prediction method for ship use stage Download PDF

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CN105404940B
CN105404940B CN201510889350.2A CN201510889350A CN105404940B CN 105404940 B CN105404940 B CN 105404940B CN 201510889350 A CN201510889350 A CN 201510889350A CN 105404940 B CN105404940 B CN 105404940B
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何晓
蒋云鹏
刘瑞
邱伯华
魏慕恒
朱武
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CSSC Systems Engineering Research Institute
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Abstract

The invention relates to a maintenance resource prediction method for a ship use stage, which comprises the following steps: receiving, collecting and sorting key input information through a terminal; the terminal carries out maintenance activity frequency prediction and multi-source maintenance activity maintenance resource prediction according to the key input information to obtain the demand type and quantity of the consumed maintenance resources and the demand of the occupied time of the occupied maintenance resources; reporting the predicted demand type and quantity of the consumed maintenance resources and the demand of the occupied time of the occupied maintenance resources to a server, and calling the maintenance resources with corresponding demands according to the demand type and quantity; the invention provides technical support for the maintenance resource prediction in the use stage of the ship through the automatic calculation mode of the server terminal, improves the accuracy and increases the matching degree of the maintenance resources and the requirements.

Description

Maintenance resource prediction method for ship use stage
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ship maintenance, in particular to a maintenance resource prediction method for a ship use stage.
Background
The maintenance resource is one of important influence factors in the use stage of the ship, and whether the maintenance resource is sufficient in carrying and the utilization rate directly influences whether the ship can complete the specified navigation task or not and reduces the guarantee cost of the whole life cycle. The accurate estimation of the maintenance resource demand has important significance for ensuring the requirement of the ship task continuity, reducing the spare part purchase quantity and reducing the management cost. The purpose of maintenance resource estimation is to effectively utilize historical data in the use process of a ship, combine the existing requirement of guaranteeing the resource loading capacity of the ship, give estimated values of resources required for completing multiple maintenance activities, combine the requirement of ship tasks, give maintenance resource estimation before the ship sails, and lay a technical foundation for accurate estimation of maintenance resources.
Maintenance resources, namely spare parts, consumables, human personnel, security equipment, security facilities and the like in the use process of the ship, and according to the characteristics of the use of the maintenance resources in maintenance activities, the maintenance resources can be divided into two categories from the perspective of maintenance resource estimation: consumable resources and occupied resources.
In the global navigation process of civil ships, the key point is to make ships navigate without stop on the premise of ensuring safety, i.e. maximizing the ship operation rate and the navigation rate, in order to achieve such a goal, the ships usually need to carry out corresponding maintenance activities to maintain the technical states of the ships and various equipment, and the maintenance resources are necessary conditions for carrying out the maintenance activities.
When ships in China are sailed globally, the ships are limited by expensive resource supply, poor timeliness and the like, maintenance resource prediction is more important, if the maintenance resource estimation is insufficient, resource shortage can be caused, equipment recovery is influenced, even malignant unexpected shutdown and shutdown can be generated in severe cases, and the capacity and efficiency of ship transportation are reduced; on the contrary, if the maintenance resource estimation is excessive, the maintenance resource overstock is caused, the storage loss of the maintenance resource under the severe sea condition is increased, and the like, so that the production cost is increased, and the production efficiency is reduced.
At present, the turbine department needs to report the loading requirement suggestions of spare parts along with ships before the ships go to the air, the adopted method is relatively single, if the method depends on experience, namely a 'brain bag' mode, the accuracy is low, the formulated maintenance resource loading amount list along with the ships often exceeds or is lower than the actual requirement, and the great waste of maintenance resources is caused.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above analysis, the present invention aims to provide a method for predicting maintenance resources in a ship use phase, so as to solve the problems of low accuracy and waste of maintenance resources in the prior art.
The purpose of the invention is mainly realized by the following technical scheme:
the invention relates to a maintenance resource prediction method for a ship use stage, which comprises the following steps:
receiving, collecting and sorting key input information through a terminal;
the terminal carries out maintenance activity frequency prediction and multi-source maintenance activity maintenance resource prediction according to the key input information to obtain the demand type and quantity of the consumed maintenance resources and the demand of the occupied time of the occupied maintenance resources;
and reporting the predicted types and the number of the demands of the consumed maintenance resources and the demands of the occupied time of the occupied maintenance resources to a server, and calling the maintenance resources with corresponding demands according to the reported requirements.
Further, the key input information includes: task requirements, including task time and task intensity; the type and the occurrence frequency of maintenance activities; the relationship between the maintenance activities and the maintenance resources, i.e. the occupied number of the consumable resources in a certain maintenance activity and the occupied time of the consumable resources in a certain maintenance activity; the properties of the resource itself are maintained.
Further, depending on whether the maintenance activity is a pre-planned characteristic, the maintenance activity includes: preventive maintenance activities and temporary maintenance activities.
Further, if the repair activity is a preventive repair activity, the process of predicting the number of preventive repair activities specifically includes:
for preventive maintenance of which the period is divided according to the calendar time, the calculation formula of the preventive maintenance times is as follows:
nPMSEi＝T/ti
in the formula: n isPMSEiRepresenting the number of preventive maintenance activities i; t represents the calendar time to which the task belongs; t is tiRepresenting a preventive maintenance interval in calendar time units;
for preventive maintenance of which the period is divided according to actual use time, the calculation formula of the preventive maintenance times is as follows:
nPMSEi＝H/hi
in the formula: n isPMSEiRepresenting the number of preventive maintenance activities i; h represents the use time in the task time; hiRepresents a preventive maintenance interval in terms of time of use;
for periodical preventive maintenance according to the actual use times, the calculation formula of the preventive maintenance times is as follows:
nPMSEi＝K/ki
in the formula: n isPMSEiRepresenting the number of preventive maintenance activities i; k represents the total use times in the task time; k is a radical ofiIndicating a preventive maintenance interval in units of number of uses.
Further, if the repair activity is a temporary repair activity, the predicting process of the number of temporary repair activities specifically includes:
the frequency of occurrence of fault and false alarm problems can be quantified by the fault rate and false alarm rate; while for the slave failure frequency, assume the SRUg,iIs LRUiThe sub-product with the middle serial number of g,
Figure BDA0000869601900000031
set of all sub-products representing product i, order
Figure BDA0000869601900000041
Indicating SRUm,iSRU in faultn,iProbability of failure, λm,iIndicating SRUm,iThe failure rate of (2), then analyzing the SRU caused by the slave failuren,iFrequency of temporary maintenance activities dCMSThe calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000042
the LRU combines the three conditions of fault rate, false alarm rate and subordinate fault frequencyiFrequency of temporary maintenance items
Figure BDA0000869601900000043
The calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000044
in the formula: a. theORRepresents the task time in hours; thetaiRepresents the operation ratio of the ith device during the mission, such as the voyage rate of the ship; n represents the total number of devices; n represents the installation number of the same type of equipment; lambda [ alpha ]iIndicating the failure rate of the ith device; mu.siRepresenting a false alarm rate for the ith device; pr{LRUi|LRUjDenotes LRUjLRU at faultiThe probability of failure; lambda [ alpha ]jIndicating the failure rate of the jth device.
Further, the multi-source repair activities have the following three relationships:
sequential relationship, i.e., multiple maintenance activities are performed sequentially;
parallel relationship, i.e. multiple maintenance activities are completed by multiple persons simultaneously;
trial and error relationships, i.e., there are multiple possible maintenance activities for a device, and each maintenance activity will occur with a certain probability.
Further, if the multi-source maintenance activities are in a sequential relationship, then
Occupation type resources: adding the working hours of the similar resources, wherein the maximum value of the resource requirement is the maximum value in each maintenance activity; if there are n sequential maintenance activities, for the jth occupation type maintenance resource, the occupation time in the ith maintenance activity is TijThe required quantity of the jth repair resources in the ith repair activity is NijThen the total occupation time T of the j-th occupation type maintenance resourcejTotal demand NjComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000045
Nj＝max(N1j，N2j，......，Nnj)
consumption type resources: like assetsAdding the number of sources, if there are N sequential maintenance activities, for the kth type consumption type resource, the required amount of the kth type consumption type maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is NikThen the total demand N of the kth type consumption type resourcekComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000051
further, if the multi-source repair activities are in a parallel relationship, then
Occupation type resources: if n maintenance activities need to be carried out at the same time, the occupation time of the jth occupation type maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is TijThe jth repair resources requirement in the ith repair campaign is NijThen the total occupation time T of the j-th occupation type maintenance resourcejMaximum total demand NjmaxMinimum total demand NjminComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000052
Figure BDA0000869601900000053
Njmin＝max(N1，N2，......，Nn)
consumption type resources: adding the number of the same type of maintenance resources, namely for the k type of consumable maintenance resources, if N maintenance activities need to be carried out simultaneously, the required amount of the k type of consumable maintenance resources in the i type of maintenance activities is NikThen the total demand N of the kth type consumption type resourcekComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000054
further, if the multi-source repair activity is an attempted relationship, then
OccupancyType resources: if there are n repair actions in the trial relationship, the frequency of occurrence of the ith repair action is fiThe occupation time of j-th occupation type maintenance resources in the ith maintenance activity is TijThe required quantity of the jth maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is NijThen the total occupation time T of the j-th occupation type resourcejTotal demand NjComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000061
Figure BDA0000869601900000062
consumption type resources: the number of resources of the same type is added, i.e. for a consumable repair resource of the kth type, if there are n attempted repair activities, the frequency of occurrence of the ith repair activity is fiThe required amount of the kth type consumption type maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is NikThen the total demand N of the kth type consumption type resourcekComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000063
further, the multidimensional modification activity resource prediction is modified according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0000869601900000064
in the formula:
Figure BDA0000869601900000065
representing a predicted final result for the class i repair resource; n is a radical ofiRepresenting the preliminary prediction result of the i-th maintenance resource; n isijIndicating the demand of the ith type of repair resource at the jth repair activity.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides technical support for the maintenance resource prediction in the use stage of the ship through the automatic calculation mode of the server terminal, improves the accuracy and increases the matching degree of the maintenance resources and the requirements.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof as well as the appended drawings.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the method according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The preferred embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, which form a part hereof, and which together with the embodiments of the invention serve to explain the principles of the invention.
As shown in fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the method according to the embodiment of the present invention, which may specifically include:
step 101: receiving, by the computer, the collected and sorted key input information;
in order to accurately predict the number of maintenance resources, key input information needs to be collected and sorted, and the method mainly comprises the following steps:
task requirements, including task time and task intensity;
the type and the occurrence frequency of maintenance activities;
the relationship between the maintenance activities and the maintenance resources, i.e. the occupied number of the consumable resources in a certain maintenance activity and the occupied time of the consumable resources in a certain maintenance activity;
the attributes of the maintenance resources themselves, such as the consumption rate of the consumable resources in a certain maintenance activity, the working time of the occupied resources in unit time, etc.
Step 102: the computer predicts the times of maintenance activities according to the task time and the task intensity;
step 103: and predicting the maintenance resources of the multi-source maintenance activities according to the task time and the task intensity, the relationship between the types and the occurrence times of the maintenance activities, the maintenance activities and the maintenance resources and the attributes of the maintenance resources, so as to obtain the types and the quantity of the demands of the consumed maintenance resources and the demands of the occupied time of the occupied maintenance resources.
Step 104: and reporting the predicted types and the number of the demands of the consumed maintenance resources and the demands of the occupied time of the occupied maintenance resources to a server, and calling the maintenance resources with corresponding demands according to the reported requirements.
The following describes in detail the prediction of the number of repair campaigns and the repair resources for a multi-sourced repair campaign, respectively.
The maintenance activities can be classified into preventive maintenance activities and temporary maintenance activities according to whether the maintenance activities are pre-planned characteristics, and the number of occurrences thereof is predicted separately below.
(1) Preventive maintenance activity quantity prediction
Preventative maintenance activities refer to those maintenance activities that are planned in advance, and usually the number of times can be directly determined by the period of preventative maintenance, but the division of the period of preventative maintenance activities for different equipment objects usually has three bases: the calendar time is taken as a basis, the using time is taken as a basis, and the using times are taken as a basis. Aiming at different division bases, the activity times of preventive maintenance are calculated in the following mode:
for preventive maintenance of which the period is divided according to the calendar time, the calculation formula of the preventive maintenance times is as follows:
nPMSEi＝T/ti
in the formula:
－nPMSEirepresenting the number of preventive maintenance activities i;
-T represents the calendar time to which the task belongs;
－tirepresenting a preventive maintenance interval in calendar time units.
For preventive maintenance of which the period is divided according to actual use time, the calculation formula of the preventive maintenance times is as follows:
nPMSEi＝H/hi
in the formula:
－nPMSEirepresenting the number of preventive maintenance activities i;
-H represents the usage time within the task time;
－Hiindicating a preventive maintenance interval in terms of time of use.
For periodical preventive maintenance according to the actual use times, the calculation formula of the preventive maintenance times is as follows:
nPMSEi＝K/ki
in the formula:
－nPMSEirepresenting the number of preventive maintenance activities i;
-K represents the total number of uses within the task time;
－kiindicating a preventive maintenance interval in units of number of uses.
(2) Temporal repair activity quantity prediction
Temporary maintenance activities refer to those maintenance activities that are unplanned. The frequency of occurrence is mainly influenced by factors such as the fault characteristics and the maintenance capability of the equipment. Typically, the failure rate of a product determines the frequency of temporary repair activities; in addition, false alarms of the false dismounting of non-fault products due to inaccurate fault location or the occurrence of subordinate faults of the current products due to faults of other products can generate temporary maintenance. Therefore, the calculation of the frequency of the temporary repair actions needs to be considered from three aspects, namely: fault, false alarm, slave fault.
The frequency of occurrence of fault and false alarm problems can be quantified by the fault rate and false alarm rate; while for the slave failure frequency, assume the SRUg,iIs LRUiThe sub-product with the middle serial number of g,
Figure BDA0000869601900000091
set of all sub-products representing product i, order
Figure BDA0000869601900000092
Indicating SRUm,iSRU in faultn,iProbability of failure, λm,iIndicating SRUm,iThe failure rate of (2), then analyzing the SRU caused by the slave failuren,iFrequency of temporary maintenance activities dCMSThe calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000093
the LRU combines the three conditions of fault rate, false alarm rate and subordinate fault frequencyiFrequency of temporary maintenance items
Figure BDA0000869601900000094
The calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000095
in the formula:
－AORrepresents the task time in hours;
－θirepresents the operation ratio of the ith device during the mission, such as the voyage rate of the ship;
-N represents the total number of devices;
-n represents the number of installations of the same type of equipment;
－λiis shown asiFailure rate of individual devices;
－μiis shown asiA false alarm rate of the individual device;
－Pr{LRUi|LRUjdenotes LRUjLRU at faultiThe probability of failure;
－λjindicating the failure rate of the jth device.
-LRU: a field replaceable unit, a unit that can be removed or replaced from the system or device at the job site after indicating a failure;
-an SRU: a field replaceable unit, a unit that can be removed or replaced from an LRU in a plant (relay or base) after indicating a fault, typically cannot be directly replaced in the field.
Repair resource prediction for multi-source repair activities
In the implementation process of maintenance activities, multiple maintenance works may need to be arranged at the same time, and the difference of the timing relationship of the maintenance works will have a great influence on the required quantity of maintenance resources. The following three relationships may exist for maintenance activities:
Figure BDA0000869601900000101
sequential relation, that is, a plurality of maintenance activities are carried out sequentially, for example, a single person completes the maintenance activities of a plurality of devices;
Figure BDA0000869601900000102
parallel relationship, i.e. multiple maintenance activities are completed by multiple persons simultaneously;
Figure BDA0000869601900000103
trial and error relationships, i.e. there are a number of possible maintenance activities for a certain device, and each maintenance activity will occur with a certain probability, i.e. different maintenance modes may be taken.
Aiming at different maintenance activity relationships and different maintenance resource types, the corresponding maintenance resource prediction method comprises the following steps:
(1) repair resource prediction for order relationships
Occupation type resources: and adding the working hours of the similar resources, wherein the maximum value of the resource requirement is the maximum value in each maintenance activity. If there are n sequential maintenance activities, for the jth occupation type maintenance resource, the occupation time in the ith maintenance activity is TijThe required quantity of the jth repair resources in the ith repair activity is NijThen the total occupation time T of the j-th occupation type maintenance resourcejTotal demand NjComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000111
Nj＝max(N1j，N2j，......，Nnj)
consumption type resources: the number of homogeneous resources is added. If there are N sequential repair actions, for the kth type consumable resource, the required amount of the kth type consumable repair resource in the ith repair action is NikThen the total demand N of the kth type consumption type resourcekComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000112
(2) repair resource prediction for parallel relationships
Occupation type resources: the working hours of the occupied resources form a sequential relationship at this time, and the calculation method refers to the section above; if n maintenance activities need to be carried out at the same time, the occupation time of the jth occupation type maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is TijThe jth repair resources requirement in the ith repair campaign is NijThen the total occupation time T of the j-th occupation type maintenance resourcejMaximum total demand NjmaxMinimum total demand NjminComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000113
Figure BDA0000869601900000114
Njmin＝max(N1，N2，......，Nn)
consumption type resources: the number of homogeneous maintenance resources is added. That is, for the kth type consumable repair resource, if N repair activities need to be performed simultaneously, the required amount of the kth type consumable repair resource in the ith repair activity is NkiThen N isikThen the total demand N of the kth type consumption type resourcekComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000115
(3) repair resource prediction for trial-and-error relationships
When the resource prediction of the relational multi-maintenance activities is tried, the probability of each maintenance activity is considered, namely, the weighted calculation is carried out. In the process, decimal places are generated, rounding processing is not performed for the moment, and the influence on the accuracy of resource prediction is avoided.
Occupation type resources: if there are n repair actions in the trial relationship, the frequency of occurrence of the ith repair action is fiThe occupation time of j-th occupation type maintenance resources in the ith maintenance activity is TijThe required quantity of the jth maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is NijThen the total occupation time T of the j-th occupation type resourcejTotal demand NjComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000121
Figure BDA0000869601900000122
consumption type resources: the number of resources of the same type is added, i.e. for a consumable repair resource of the kth type, if there are n attempted repair activities, the frequency of occurrence of the ith repair activity is fiThe required amount of the kth type consumption type maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is NikThen the total demand N of the kth type consumption type resourcekComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0000869601900000123
(4) multi-repair activity resource prediction correction
Since in the course of multi-resource computing, there is a repair activity that tries the relationship. The weighted addition method may generate a situation that a decimal or a requirement of a single maintenance activity resource is not met, so that the situation needs to be corrected finally to obtain a more accurate prediction result of the maintenance resource:
Figure BDA0000869601900000124
in the formula:
--
Figure BDA0000869601900000125
representing a predicted final result for the class i repair resource;
--Nirepresenting the preliminary prediction result of the i-th maintenance resource;
--nijindicating the demand of the ith type of repair resource at the jth repair activity.
In summary, the embodiment of the present invention provides a maintenance resource prediction method for a ship use phase, which provides a maintenance resource prediction method for a ship use phase by combining a maintenance mode and a maintenance activity type encountered in the ship use phase with a task requirement, a maintenance activity attribute, a maintenance resource attribute, and the like of a ship.
Compared with the existing experience-based method and the design-and-development-stage-based method, the embodiment of the invention provides the maintenance resource estimation method under the input of the task information aiming at the characteristics of maintenance activities and spare part resources in the use stage of the ship, can effectively match the estimation requirements of the use stage of the ship on the consumption-type resources such as spare parts, oil and the like and the resource demand of occupation-type resources such as personnel, equipment and the like, and provides the corresponding resource estimation conclusion to guide the ship to carry out the preparation work of the maintenance resources.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the flow of the method implementing the above embodiments may be implemented by a computer program, which is stored in a computer readable storage medium, to instruct related hardware. The computer readable storage medium is a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a read-only memory or a random access memory.
The above description is only for the preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are included in the scope of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. A maintenance resource prediction method for a ship use stage is characterized by comprising the following steps:
receiving, by the computer, the collected and sorted key input information;
the key input information includes: task requirements, including task time and task intensity; the type and the occurrence frequency of maintenance activities; the relationship between the maintenance activities and the maintenance resources, i.e. the occupied number of the consumable resources in a certain maintenance activity and the occupied time of the consumable resources in a certain maintenance activity; maintaining the properties of the resources;
the computer carries out maintenance resource prediction on the multi-source maintenance activities according to the task time and the task intensity, the relationship between the types and the occurrence times of the maintenance activities, the maintenance activities and the maintenance resources and the attributes of the maintenance resources, so as to obtain the types and the quantity of the demands of the consumed maintenance resources and the demands of the occupied time of the occupied maintenance resources;
the computer reports the predicted demand type and quantity of the consumed maintenance resources and the demand of the occupied time of the occupied maintenance resources to the server, and calls the maintenance resources with corresponding demands according to the demand type and quantity to develop maintenance activities;
depending on whether the maintenance activity is a pre-planned characteristic, the maintenance activity includes: preventive and temporary maintenance activities;
if the maintenance activity is a temporary maintenance activity, the process of predicting the number of temporary maintenance activities specifically includes:
the frequency of occurrence of fault and false alarm problems can be quantified by the fault rate and false alarm rate; while for the slave failure frequency, assume the SRUg,iIs LRUiThe sub-product with the middle serial number of g,
Figure FDA0003105674050000011
set of all sub-products representing product i, order
Figure FDA0003105674050000012
Indicating SRUm,iSRU in faultn,iProbability of failure, λm,iIndicating SRUm,iThe failure rate of (2), then analyzing the SRU caused by the slave failuren,iFrequency of temporary maintenance activities dCMSThe calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003105674050000013
the LRU combines the three conditions of fault rate, false alarm rate and subordinate fault frequencyiFrequency of temporary maintenance items
Figure FDA0003105674050000021
The calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003105674050000022
in the formula: a. theORRepresents the task time in hours; thetaiRepresenting the running ratio of the ith device during the task; n represents the total number of devices; n represents the installation number of the same type of equipment; lambda [ alpha ]iIndicating the failure rate of the ith device; mu.siRepresenting a false alarm rate for the ith device; pr{LRUi|LRUjDenotes LRUjLRU at faultiThe probability of failure; lambda [ alpha ]jIndicating the failure rate of the jth device.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein if the repair activity is a preventative repair activity, the process of predicting a number of preventative repair activities specifically comprises:
for preventive maintenance of which the period is divided according to the calendar time, the calculation formula of the preventive maintenance times is as follows:
nPMSEi＝T/ti
in the formula: n isPMSEiRepresenting the number of preventive maintenance activities i; t represents the calendar time to which the task belongs; t is tiRepresenting a preventive maintenance interval in calendar time units;
for preventive maintenance of which the period is divided according to actual use time, the calculation formula of the preventive maintenance times is as follows:
nPMSEi＝H/hi
in the formula: n isPMSEiRepresenting the number of preventive maintenance activities i; h represents the use time in the task time; h isiRepresents a preventive maintenance interval in terms of time of use;
for periodical preventive maintenance according to the actual use times, the calculation formula of the preventive maintenance times is as follows:
nPMSEi＝K/ki
in the formula: n isPMSEiRepresenting the number of preventive maintenance activities i; k represents the total use times in the task time; k is a radical ofiIndicating a preventive maintenance interval in units of number of uses.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the multi-source repair activity has the following three relationships:
sequential relationship, i.e., multiple maintenance activities are performed sequentially;
parallel relationship, i.e. multiple maintenance activities are completed by multiple persons simultaneously;
trial and error relationships, i.e., there are multiple possible maintenance activities for a device, and each maintenance activity will occur with a certain probability.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein if the multi-source repair activity is a sequential relationship, then
Occupation type resources: adding the working hours of the similar resources, wherein the maximum value of the resource requirement is the maximum value in each maintenance activity; if there are n sequential maintenance activities, for the jth occupation type maintenance resource, the occupation time in the ith maintenance activity is TijThe required quantity of the jth repair resources in the ith repair activity is NijThen the total occupation time T of the j-th occupation type maintenance resourcejTotal demand NjComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003105674050000031
Nj＝max(N1j，N2j，......，Nnj)
consumption type resources: adding the number of the same type of resources, if there are N sequential maintenance activities, for the k type consumption type resource, the required amount of the k type consumption type maintenance resource in the i type maintenance activity is NikThen the total demand N of the kth type consumption type resourcekComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003105674050000032
5. the method of claim 3, wherein if the multi-source repair activity is a parallel relationship, then
Occupation type resources: if n maintenance activities need to be carried out at the same time, the occupation time of the jth occupation type maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is TijThe jth repair resources requirement in the ith repair campaign is NijThen the total occupation time T of the j-th occupation type maintenance resourcejMaximum total demand NjmaxMinimum total demand NjminComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003105674050000041
Figure FDA0003105674050000042
Njmin＝max(N1，N2，......，Nn)
consumption type resources: adding the number of the same type of maintenance resources, namely for the k type of consumable maintenance resources, if N maintenance activities need to be carried out simultaneously, the required amount of the k type of consumable maintenance resources in the i type of maintenance activities is NikThen the total demand N of the kth type consumption type resourcekComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003105674050000043
6. the method of claim 3, wherein if the multi-source repair activity is an attempted relationship, then
Occupation type resources: if there are n repair actions in the trial relationship, the frequency of occurrence of the ith repair action is fiThe occupation time of j-th occupation type maintenance resources in the ith maintenance activity is TijThe required quantity of the jth maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is NijThen the total occupation time T of the j-th occupation type resourcejTotal demand NjComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003105674050000044
Figure FDA0003105674050000045
consumption type resources: adding the number of resources of the same type, i.e. for a kth type of consumable maintenance resourceIf there are n attempted maintenance activities, the frequency with which the ith maintenance activity occurs is fiThe required amount of the kth type consumption type maintenance resource in the ith maintenance activity is NikThen the total demand N of the kth type consumption type resourcekComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003105674050000046
7. the method of claim 1, wherein the multidimensional modification activity resource prediction is modified according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003105674050000051
in the formula:
Figure FDA0003105674050000052
representing a predicted final result for the class i repair resource; n is a radical ofiRepresenting the preliminary prediction result of the i-th maintenance resource; n isijIndicating the demand of the ith type of repair resource at the jth repair activity.
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