CN110443439B - User accurate load shedding potential evaluation method based on expected deviation - Google Patents

User accurate load shedding potential evaluation method based on expected deviation Download PDF

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CN110443439B
CN110443439B CN201910519533.3A CN201910519533A CN110443439B CN 110443439 B CN110443439 B CN 110443439B CN 201910519533 A CN201910519533 A CN 201910519533A CN 110443439 B CN110443439 B CN 110443439B
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陆俊
张立川
胡泽升
徐志强
龚钢军
王赟
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North China Electric Power University
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Abstract

The invention aims to provide a user accurate load shedding potential evaluation method based on an expected deviation criterion. The potential evaluation system aiming at the existing user electricity utilization behavior lacks specific analysis on the actual electricity utilization data of the section load user. The method comprises the steps of acquiring the load cutting information of the load cutting user on a working day on the basis of fully analyzing the actual power consumption data of the load cutting user, calculating the upper limit evaluation value and the lower limit evaluation value of the load cutting of the user, determining a threshold interval according to an expected deviation criterion, and screening and calculating the optimal evaluation value of the load capacity. And a reasonable power grid operation strategy is formulated according to the evaluation potential, so that the resource utilization rate of the load shedding system and the system response efficiency can be effectively improved.

Description

User accurate load shedding potential evaluation method based on expected deviation
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of intelligent power utilization accurate load shedding, and particularly relates to a user accurate load shedding potential evaluation method based on expected deviation.
Background
Evaluation of the potential of user electricity utilization behavior is a necessary measure for increasing the flexibility of a power grid in the context of energy internet. Through assessing the load shedding potential of a user, a reasonable power grid operation strategy can be formulated, more accurate data basis is provided for intelligent power utilization accurate load shedding and user side demand response, the purposes of improving a load curve and high-efficiency power utilization are achieved, the development demand of an energy internet is met, and the safe and stable operation of a power system is ensured.
The existing potential evaluation system for the electricity utilization behavior of the user lacks specific analysis on actual electricity utilization data of a section load user. The method comprises the steps of acquiring the load cutting information of the load cutting user on a working day on the basis of fully analyzing the actual power consumption data of the load cutting user, calculating the upper limit evaluation value and the lower limit evaluation value of the load cutting of the user, determining a threshold interval according to expected deviation, and screening and calculating the optimal evaluation value of the load capacity. And a reasonable power grid operation strategy is formulated according to the evaluation potential, so that the resource utilization rate and the system response efficiency of the load shedding system can be effectively improved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a user accurate load shedding potential evaluation method based on expected deviation, which comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring load cutting information of a load cutting user working day;
s2, calculating upper and lower limit evaluation values of the user cuttable load;
s3, determining a threshold interval according to the expected deviation;
and S4, screening and calculating the optimal load evaluation value.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flowchart of the overall process of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a diagram of a typical application scenario of the method of the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a graph of the assessment of the potential for shedding load on a user's working day.
Detailed Description
The preferred embodiments will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be emphasized that the following description is merely exemplary in nature and is not intended to limit the scope of the invention or its application. Fig. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention, which is further illustrated below with reference to specific examples.
The invention provides a user accurate load shedding potential evaluation method based on expected deviation, which comprises the following steps of:
s1, acquiring load cutting information of working days of load cutting users
And (3) selecting I (I is more than 5) moments every day, and acquiring the electricity utilization load Q (unit kW) of the user in each moment in the latest M working days (M is more than or equal to 3 and less than or equal to 48). Let the load amount at the ith time on the mth day of the user be Q (m, i).
In the example, I =12 moments are selected each day, and the load Q used by the user in each moment in the last M =7 working days is obtained. Let the load Q (m, i) at the ith time on the mth day of the user. The results obtained are shown in Table 1.
TABLE 1 load shedding user cuttable load capacity
Working day 2：00 4：00 6：00 8：00 10：00 12：00 14：00 16：00 18：00 20:00 22:00 24:00
Day one 1694.11 1667.47 1642.89 1643.93 1930.75 1825.68 1697.05 1644.03 1523.37 1464.65 1609.5 1595.16
The next day 1655.8 1602.19 1403.61 1671.32 1665 1676.72 1713.98 1983.4 1531.61 1803.96 1600.51 1693.36
The third day 1897.23 1549.98 1682.12 1585.87 1682.19 1846.03 1601.85 1793.69 1599.12 2032.41 2020.2 1929.05
Day four 2051.1 1828.7 1835.93 1661.6 1918.4 1732.51 1694.03 1838.49 1681.16 1939.29 1794.62 1817.23
The fifth day 2054.8 1835.45 1819.31 1618.32 1727.55 1444.43 1641.95 969.04 1838.28 1798.59 2022.99 1726.59
Day six 1660.91 1650.64 1617.37 1505.08 1617.42 1747.83 1630.44 1819.87 1745.21 1834.2 1910.67 1721.92
The seventh day 1768.36 1690.09 1591.92 1593.04 1535.21 1685.96 1792.92 1449.21 1514.99 1546.08 1752.68 1714
S2, calculating upper and lower limit evaluation values of user switchable load
For each time of each day of the user, setting the values of the load quantities Q (m, i-k), …, Q (m, i-2), Q (m, i-1), Q (m, i + 1), Q (m, i + 2), … and Q (m, i + k) of the ith time of the mth day of the user and k times before and after the ith time of the mth day of the user according to a formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000021
Calculating to obtain expected mu (m, i) of the cuttable load quantity according to a formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000022
Calculating to obtain the deviation sigma (m, i) of the cuttable load capacity; according to the formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000023
Calculating to obtain an estimation upper limit value U (m, i) of the load quantity at the ith moment of the mth day according to a formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000024
Calculating the load rating of the ith time of the mth dayThe lower limit value D (m, i) is estimated.
In the example, for each time of each day of the user, the numerical values of the load quantities Q (m, i-2), Q (m, i-1), Q (m, i + 1) and Q (m, i + 2) at the ith time of the mth day of the user and k =2 times before and after the ith time are set according to a formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000025
Calculating to obtain expected value mu (m, i) of the cuttable load quantity according to a formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000031
And calculating to obtain the deviation sigma (m, i) of the cuttable load quantity. According to the formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000032
Calculating to obtain an estimation upper limit value U (m, i) of the load quantity at the ith moment of the mth day according to a formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000033
And calculating to obtain an evaluation lower limit value D (m, i) of the load quantity at the ith moment of the mth day. The results obtained are shown in Table 3.
TABLE 2 evaluation of upper limits
Working day 2：00 4：00 6：00 8：00 10：00 12：00 14：00 16：00 18：00 20:00 22:00 24:00
Day one 1668.29 1662.43 1719.29 1746.02 1751.71 1751.93 1729.99 1635.96 1589.92 1568.68 1549.26 1557.80
The next day 1557.65 1583.35 1602.77 1607.11 1630.02 1746.34 1720.53 1748.32 1733.97 1729.92 1660.51 1701.31
The third day 1715.76 1678.87 1683.82 1672.40 1682.14 1705.04 1707.51 1782.07 1819.47 1881.89 1903.31 1994.42
The fourth day 1908.02 1844.75 1863.49 1797.64 1771.05 1771.58 1775.27 1779.80 1792.07 1816.05 1810.40 1851.47
The fifth day 1906.22 1833.59 1816.83 1695.20 1655.03 1504.98 1554.68 1570.71 1693.62 1710.37 1849.85 1853.69
Day six 1643.08 1608.56 1611.24 1629.52 1625.45 1667.72 1713.88 1756.10 1790.58 1807.63 1804.56 1823.91
The seventh day 1685.00 1661.03 1637.85 1620.35 1642.31 1615.67 1600.58 1602.67 1616.92 1599.71 1635.18 1673.32
TABLE 3 evaluation of lower limits
Working day 2：00 4：00 6：00 8：00 10：00 12：00 14：00 16：00 18：00 20:00 22:00 24:00
Day one 1668.03 1661.76 1712.35 1738.26 1744.40 1744.64 1718.34 1625.93 1585.52 1566.0 1547.07 1555.07
The next day 1550.08 1583.11 1596.39 1600.42 1622.23 1737.82 1707.73 1735.53 1719.38 1715.19 1654.20 1697.24
The third day 1703.78 1678.73 1675.13 1666.07 1677.07 1698.80 1701.63 1767.13 1799.38 1867.87 1887.05 1993.35
Day four 1902.45 1843.92 1854.79 1793.21 1765.93 1766.42 1770.56 1774.38 1786.96 1812.26 1805.75 1849.29
The fifth day 1900.15 1830.35 1805.32 1682.80 1645.58 1455.12 1493.20 1505.52 1613.76 1630.88 1843.37 1845.08
Day six 1642.87 1608.44 1609.33 1625.81 1621.80 1660.53 1710.42 1754.02 1785.57 1805.12 1801.44 1820.61
The seventh day 1681.91 1660.67 1633.62 1618.13 1637.31 1606.86 1590.72 1592.98 1605.41 1591.06 1628.69 1668.51
S3, determining a threshold interval according to the expected deviation
For each time i, according to the formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000034
Calculating the estimated expected load cutting of the time i in M days
Figure BDA0002096201330000035
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000036
Calculating the estimated deviation of the load which can be cut at the moment i within M days
Figure BDA0002096201330000037
And calculating to obtain a threshold interval
Figure BDA0002096201330000038
In the example, for each instant i, according to the formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000039
Calculating the estimated expected load cutting of the time i in M days
Figure BDA00020962013300000310
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002096201330000041
Calculating the estimated deviation of the load which can be cut at the moment i within M days
Figure BDA0002096201330000042
And calculating to obtain a threshold interval
Figure BDA0002096201330000043
S4, screening and calculating the optimal load evaluation value
For each time i, calculating the average value of the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the evaluation of all the load quantities belonging to the threshold interval T of the user as the optimal evaluation value Q of the load quantity of the time i 0 (i)。
In the example, for each time i, the average value of the upper and lower limit values of the estimation of the load quantity of all users belonging to the threshold interval T is calculated as the best estimation value Q of the load quantity of the time i 0 (i) The results are shown in FIG. 3.

Claims (2)

1. A user accurate load shedding potential evaluation method based on expected deviation comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring load cutting information of a load cutting user working day;
s2, calculating upper and lower limit estimated values of the user's cuttable load, wherein the step is specifically characterized in that the load Q (m, i) of the user at the ith moment of the mth day is calculated according to a formula
Figure FDA0003853488500000011
Calculating to obtain expected mu (m, i) of the cuttable load quantity according to a formula
Figure FDA0003853488500000012
Calculating to obtain the deviation sigma (m, i) of the cuttable load capacity; according to the formula
Figure FDA0003853488500000013
Calculating to obtain an estimation upper limit value U (m, i) of the load quantity of the user at the ith moment on the mth day according to a formula
Figure FDA0003853488500000014
Calculating an evaluation lower limit value D (m, i) of the load quantity of the user at the ith moment on the mth day;
s3, determining a threshold interval according to the expected deviation, wherein the step is specifically characterized in that for each moment i, the threshold interval is determined according to a formula
Figure FDA0003853488500000015
Calculating a cutable load assessment expectation for time i
Figure FDA0003853488500000016
According to the formula
Figure FDA0003853488500000017
Calculating the cuttable load estimation deviation at the time i
Figure FDA0003853488500000018
And calculating to obtain a threshold interval
Figure FDA0003853488500000019
S4, screening and calculating the optimal load evaluation value, wherein the step is specifically characterized in that for each moment i, the average value of the upper and lower evaluation limit values of all load quantities belonging to a threshold interval T of the user is calculated as the optimal load evaluation value Q of the moment i 0 (i)。
2. The method for evaluating the potential of a user 'S accurate shedding load according to the expected deviation as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step S1, I (I > 5) times are selected every day, the electricity utilization load Q of the user at each time within the latest M (3 ≦ M ≦ 48) working days is obtained, and the load Q at the ith time of the user' S mth day is Q (M, I).
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