CN108932562B - Method for establishing comprehensive benefit evaluation model of comprehensive energy system - Google Patents

Method for establishing comprehensive benefit evaluation model of comprehensive energy system Download PDF

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CN108932562B
CN108932562B CN201810678035.9A CN201810678035A CN108932562B CN 108932562 B CN108932562 B CN 108932562B CN 201810678035 A CN201810678035 A CN 201810678035A CN 108932562 B CN108932562 B CN 108932562B
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CN108932562A (en
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杨雍琦
薛万磊
赵龙
徐楠
李晨辉
赵昕
王艳
郑志杰
贾善杰
李勃
梁荣
冯亮
田鑫
朱毅
侯庆旭
刘知凡
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Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for establishing a comprehensive benefit evaluation model of a comprehensive energy system, which comprises the following steps: constructing an index system: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system according to basic architecture and basic characteristics of an operation mode of the comprehensive energy system; the index calculation method comprises the following steps: determining an index with a single fixed value as a static index, and determining an index with a time variation index value and different values in different time periods as a dynamic index; the traditional static DEA model is improved into a dynamic DEA model.

Description

Method for establishing comprehensive benefit evaluation model of comprehensive energy system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of planning and construction of comprehensive energy systems, in particular to a method for establishing a comprehensive benefit evaluation model of a comprehensive energy system.
Background
In the optimal selection stage of the operation mode of the comprehensive energy system, the comprehensive benefits of different operation modes are described through efficiency, the operation efficiency of different operation schemes is obtained through solving, comparison and selection are carried out, the most suitable operation mode with the best benefit for developing the construction of the comprehensive energy system in the region is obtained, and reference is provided for the optimal selection of the operation mode and scheme decision of the comprehensive energy system.
At present, in the field of comprehensive evaluation of comprehensive energy systems, a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed in documents, and a calculation model of part of key indexes is provided. A systematic comprehensive evaluation model does not exist in the comprehensive benefit evaluation aspect of the comprehensive energy system, and an evaluation model and a method for depicting and evaluating the comprehensive benefit of the comprehensive energy system through the operation efficiency do not exist. The term "efficiency" is generally used for measuring the proportion of system output to input, and it is scientific and reasonable to calculate the comprehensive benefit of a system project by solving the operation efficiency.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the problems in the prior art, the invention provides a comprehensive benefit evaluation model establishment method for a comprehensive energy system.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows: the method for establishing the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of the comprehensive energy system comprises the following steps:
constructing an index system: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system according to basic architecture and basic characteristics of an operation mode of the comprehensive energy system;
the index calculation method comprises the following steps: determining an index with a single fixed value as a static index, and determining an index with a time variation index value and different values in different time periods as a dynamic index;
constructing a dynamic DEA model: on the basis of the three-stage DEA model, setting a positive index as G and a negative index as B for each decision unit DMU; the vector of the index is Hj＝(h1j,h2j,...,hoj)TThe vector of the forward indicator can be represented as Gj＝(g1j,g2j,...,glj)TVector of negative indicator is Bj＝(b1j,b2j,...,bwj)TTaking Hj，GjAnd BjAll are larger than zero, the number of J is set as J, and the number of o, l and w is set as O, L, W;
the construction of the comprehensive evaluation index system is shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 evaluation index System
Figure GDA0002434962560000021
Further, the load proportion can be called: representing the proportion of the load available for calling in the total load, wherein the calling load is the load which is reduced within a specified time period according to the system scheduling requirement so as to smooth the peak load, or the load level is increased so as to absorb the load of clean energy;
block load prediction accuracy: deeply subdividing blocks of the system, and predicting the load of each block in each time period when load prediction is carried out; the index value is the average value of the load prediction accuracy of all blocks in all time periods;
coupling conversion efficiency: the conversion efficiency among water, electricity, heat and gas energy sources in a comprehensive energy system is indicated;
independent device transmission and storage efficiency: the transmission efficiency of the energy supply equipment with transmission loss deducted in the transmission process and the storage efficiency in the energy storage and release processes are represented;
reliability of energy supply: the index representing the continuous energy supply capacity of the system is the enlargement of the power supply reliability index, and the calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure GDA0002434962560000031
wherein SR is the reliability of energy supply, TSAverage energy outage time, T, for the userTThe statistical period time.
Further, the dynamic index in the index calculation method takes a value once every hour and is calculated according to 24 hours on a scheduling day.
Further, the efficiency value of the kth DMU can be solved by the following model:
the first-stage model:
minε (2)
s.t.
Figure GDA0002434962560000032
Figure GDA0002434962560000033
Figure GDA0002434962560000034
λj≥0 (j＝1,...,J) (6)
λ is the undivided efficiency value multiplier.
Further, a second-stage model is established on the basis of the first-stage model:
and a second stage model:
minε (7)
s.t.
Figure GDA0002434962560000041
Figure GDA0002434962560000042
Figure GDA0002434962560000043
Figure GDA0002434962560000044
λj≥0 (j＝1,...,J) (12)
ε represents the efficiency.
Further, optimizing and integrating the second-stage model to obtain a third-stage model;
the third-stage model:
Figure GDA0002434962560000045
s.t.
Figure GDA0002434962560000046
Figure GDA0002434962560000047
αo≥0 (o＝1,...,O) (16)
βl≥0 (l＝1,...,L) (17)
wherein the parameter α added in the formulas (14) and (15)oAnd βlAnd deltawEfficiency multiplier for different indexes; and solving the third-stage model to obtain the DMU efficiency value to be solved.
Further, let Xik,tRepresenting the ith input index, X, for the kth DMU over time period tik,t,gIs a positive indicator, Xik,t,bIs a negative indicator, Yrk,tIs the r-th output index, Yrk,t,gIs a positive indicator, Yrk,t,bIs a negative indicator; zfk,tThe index value parameter of the kth DMU in the time period t is represented, and the variation of the index value of the index in the time period t compared with the previous time period is reflected; the total time period is T, the input indexes are m, the output indexes are n, the index variation is F, and the following steps are taken:
Figure GDA0002434962560000051
Figure GDA0002434962560000052
then for the kth DMU, the objective function with the dynamic DEA model is:
Figure GDA0002434962560000053
the constraint conditions are as follows:
Figure GDA0002434962560000054
Figure GDA0002434962560000055
Figure GDA0002434962560000056
wherein, ξi、ψrAnd ζfEfficiency multiplier for input variable, output variable, and delta, respectively, where ξ is requestedi≥εk、ψr≥εk，ζf≥εkEquations (20) to (23) are models that are guided by the input index, and models that are guided by the output index are:
Figure GDA0002434962560000057
Figure GDA0002434962560000058
Figure GDA0002434962560000059
Figure GDA00024349625600000510
the model can be solved to obtain an efficiency multiplier under dynamic conditions, here set at ξi,op、ψr,opAnd ζf,opThen, for the jth DMU, the efficiency at the time period t is:
Figure GDA00024349625600000511
the total efficiency is:
Figure GDA0002434962560000061
in summary, the technical scheme of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method is used for constructing a comprehensive evaluation model taking solving of the operation efficiency of the comprehensive energy system as a core, analyzing and summarizing a basic overview of the operation of the comprehensive energy system, improving and optimizing a Data Envelope Analysis (DEA) model, performing simulation on actual operation effects of different project schemes by using a simulation method at a decision optimization stage of the operation scheme so as to obtain a specific index value, substituting the specific index value into the efficiency evaluation model for solving and calculating to obtain the operation efficiency of the different project schemes, and performing comparison and selection according to the fact that the higher the operation efficiency is, the better the comprehensive benefit is.
In the evaluation and comparison of the conventional project scheme, most of the index values are fixed values, however, the object to be comprehensively evaluated is the operation scheme of the comprehensive energy system, the specific data of part of the evaluation indexes are dynamic and variable, and the implementation effect of the operation scheme cannot be accurately reflected by measuring and calculating the index value of a certain specific time point. The traditional DEA model is also measured and calculated based on a static index, so that the DEA model is improved into a dynamic DEA model aiming at the characteristic of an evaluation object, and the model has the capability of substituting and calculating a plurality of data streams of the index in a period of time.
And the basic outline of the operation of the integrated energy system is closer. In the operation process of the comprehensive energy system, a plurality of indexes have different values in a plurality of time periods, belong to dynamic indexes, have large data volume, and are mixed with the dynamic indexes, so that the accuracy of a calculation result can be influenced. The invention divides the dynamic index from the static index by taking the efficiency as the core for mainly checking the comprehensive benefit of the comprehensive energy system, establishes a dynamic DEA model which is suitable for the operation dynamic characteristics of the comprehensive energy system, further improves the calculation accuracy and more powerfully improves the decision support function of the calculation result.
Index empowerment and standardization are not needed, and the calculation steps are simplified. The DEA model obtains the system operation efficiency by solving the optimal efficiency front surface, index weighting and data standardization processing are not needed, the calculation difficulty is reduced, and meanwhile, the influence of weighting results on calculation results is also reduced.
The model has strong expansibility, and can further carry out deep researches such as sensitivity analysis and the like. On the basis of the model in the fourth part, other models and methods such as sensitivity analysis and the like can be further added, so that the index with the most obvious influence on the operation efficiency and the comprehensive benefit can be further solved, and a decision reference is provided for developing the design of the operation scheme of the comprehensive energy system in the future.
Detailed Description
The features and principles of the present invention are described in detail below, and the examples are only for explaining the present invention and are not to be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention.
The method for establishing the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of the comprehensive energy system comprises the following steps:
constructing an index system: according to the basic architecture and the basic characteristics of the operation mode of the comprehensive energy system, a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed and is shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 evaluation index System
Figure GDA0002434962560000071
In consideration of the applicability of an index system, all economic efficiency indexes and most energy efficiency indexes can be obtained by prediction or simulation solving, but the specific calculation method of part of indexes needs to be further explained:
the load proportion can be called: representing the proportion of the load available for calling in the total load, wherein the calling load is the load which is reduced within a specified time period according to the system scheduling requirement so as to smooth the peak load, or the load level is increased so as to absorb the load of clean energy;
block load prediction accuracy: deeply subdividing blocks of the system, and predicting the load of each block in each time period when load prediction is carried out; the index value is the average value of the load prediction accuracy of all blocks in all time periods;
coupling conversion efficiency: the conversion efficiency of water, electricity, heat, gas and other energy sources in the comprehensive energy system is indicated;
independent device transmission and storage efficiency: the transmission efficiency of the energy supply equipment with transmission loss deducted in the transmission process and the storage efficiency in the energy storage and release processes are represented;
reliability of energy supply: the index representing the continuous energy supply capacity of the system is the enlargement of the power supply reliability index, and the calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure GDA0002434962560000081
wherein SR is the reliability of energy supply, TSAverage energy outage time, T, for the userTThe statistical period time.
Energy supply stability: the index of the energy supply quality of the system is characterized, and the voltage stability index is adopted for calculation in consideration of the fact that the current index does not have universality to characterize the energy supply stability.
The index calculation method comprises the following steps: determining an index with a single fixed value as a static index, and determining an index with a time variation index value and different values in different time periods as a dynamic index; the dynamic index in the index calculation method takes value once per hour and is calculated according to 24 hours on a scheduling day.
Constructing a dynamic DEA model: on the basis of the three-stage DEA model, setting a positive index as G and a negative index as B for each decision unit DMU; the vector of the index is Hj＝(h1j,h2j,...,hoj)TThe vector of the forward indicator can be represented as Gj＝(g1j,g2j,...,glj)TVector of negative indicator is Bj＝(b1j,b2j,...,bwj)TTaking Hj，GjAnd BjAre all larger than zero, let the number of J be J and the number of o, l, w be O, L, W. The efficiency value of the kth DMU can be solved by the following model:
the first-stage model:
minε (2)
s.t.
Figure GDA0002434962560000091
Figure GDA0002434962560000092
Figure GDA0002434962560000093
λj≥0 (j＝1,...,J) (6)
ε is the efficiency and λ is the non-subdivided efficiency value multiplier.
Considering that equation (5) is an equation and contains the variable epsilon for the final solution (i.e., the actual efficiency of the system operating scheme), the model is computationally inefficient. In addition, the first-stage model is an input negative output index guiding model, and the operation efficiency obtained by solving is greatly influenced by the negative indexes, so that the second-stage model is established on the basis of the model to weaken the influence of the negative indexes.
And a second stage model:
minε (7)
s.t.
Figure GDA0002434962560000094
Figure GDA0002434962560000095
Figure GDA0002434962560000096
Figure GDA0002434962560000101
λj≥0 (j＝1,...,J) (12)
in the calculation process of the second stage model, the indexes are further divided into indexes with larger influence and indexes with smaller influence through formulas (10) and (11), so that the influence of the negative indexes is weakened. Here, the index with a small influence means an index with a small difference in index data between different DMUs, and the discrimination of the DMUs is small, and the index with a large influence means an index with a large difference in index data between different DMUs, and the discrimination of the DMUs is large. And optimizing and integrating the second-stage model to obtain a third-stage model.
The third-stage model:
Figure GDA0002434962560000102
s.t.
Figure GDA0002434962560000103
Figure GDA0002434962560000104
αo≥0 (o＝1,...,O) (16)
βl≥0 (l＝1,...,L) (17)
wherein the parameter α added in the formulas (14) and (15)oAnd βlAnd deltawEfficiency multiplier for different indexes; at this point, there is still an equation in the constraint, but there is no need to ask for itUnknowns of the solution. And solving the third-stage model to obtain the DMU efficiency value to be solved.
In the evaluation and comparison of the conventional project scheme, most of the index values are fixed values, however, the object to be comprehensively evaluated is the operation scheme of the comprehensive energy system, the specific data of part of the evaluation indexes are dynamic and variable, and the implementation effect of the operation scheme cannot be accurately reflected by measuring and calculating the index value of a certain specific time point. The traditional DEA model is also measured and calculated based on a static index, so that the DEA model is improved into a dynamic DEA model aiming at the characteristic of an evaluation object, and the model has the capability of substituting and calculating a plurality of data streams of the index in a period of time.
Let Xik,tRepresenting the ith input index, X, for the kth DMU over time period tik,t,gIs a positive indicator, Xik,t,bIs a negative indicator, Yrk,tIs the r-th output index, Yrk,t,gIs a positive indicator, Yrk,t,bIs a negative indicator. Zfk,tAnd the index value parameter which represents the kth DMU in the time period t reflects the variation of the index value of the index in the time period t compared with the previous time period. The total time period is T, the input indexes are m, the output indexes are n, the index variation is F, and the following steps are taken:
Figure GDA0002434962560000111
Figure GDA0002434962560000112
then for the kth DMU, the objective function with the dynamic DEA model is:
Figure GDA0002434962560000113
the constraint conditions are as follows:
Figure GDA0002434962560000114
Figure GDA0002434962560000115
Figure GDA0002434962560000116
wherein, ξi、ψrAnd ζfEfficiency multiplier for input variable, output variable, and delta, respectively, where ξ is requestedi≥εk、ψr≥εk，ζf≥εkEquations (20) to (23) are models that are guided by the input index, and models that are guided by the output index are:
Figure GDA0002434962560000117
Figure GDA0002434962560000118
Figure GDA0002434962560000119
Figure GDA00024349625600001110
the model can be solved to obtain an efficiency multiplier under dynamic conditions, here set at ξi,op、ψr,opAnd ζf,opThen, for the jth DMU, the efficiency at the time period t is:
Figure GDA0002434962560000121
the total efficiency is:
Figure GDA0002434962560000122
the index system can be replaced by other index systems, and can be changed according to the specific requirements of different projects, for example, if the comprehensive energy system is developed for supporting the conversion of new and old kinetic energies, the index system can be added with indexes such as 'increase of new and old kinetic energy conversion output value' and 'new kinetic energy industrial energy ratio'.
And the basic outline of the operation of the integrated energy system is closer. In the operation process of the comprehensive energy system, a plurality of indexes have different values in a plurality of time periods, belong to dynamic indexes, have large data volume, and are mixed with the dynamic indexes, so that the accuracy of a calculation result can be influenced. The invention divides the dynamic index from the static index by taking the efficiency as the core for mainly checking the comprehensive benefit of the comprehensive energy system, establishes a dynamic DEA model which is suitable for the operation dynamic characteristics of the comprehensive energy system, further improves the calculation accuracy and more powerfully improves the decision support function of the calculation result.
Index empowerment and standardization are not needed, and the calculation steps are simplified. The DEA model obtains the system operation efficiency by solving the optimal efficiency front surface, index weighting and data standardization processing are not needed, the calculation difficulty is reduced, and meanwhile, the influence of weighting results on calculation results is also reduced.
The model has strong expansibility, and can further carry out deep researches such as sensitivity analysis and the like. On the basis of the model in the fourth part, other models and methods such as sensitivity analysis and the like can be further added, so that the index with the most obvious influence on the operation efficiency and the comprehensive benefit can be further solved, and a decision reference is provided for developing the design of the operation scheme of the comprehensive energy system in the future.
The above-mentioned embodiments are merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention, and do not limit the scope of the present invention, and various modifications and improvements of the present invention by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit of the present invention are intended to be covered by the protection scope defined by the claims of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. The method for establishing the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of the comprehensive energy system is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
constructing an index system: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system according to basic architecture and basic characteristics of an operation mode of the comprehensive energy system;
the index calculation method comprises the following steps: determining an index with a single fixed value as a static index, and determining an index with a time variation index value and different values in different time periods as a dynamic index;
constructing a dynamic DEA model: on the basis of the three-stage DEA model, setting a positive index as G and a negative index as B for each decision unit DMU; the vector of the index is Hj＝(h1j,h2j,...,hoj)TThe vector of the forward indicator can be represented as Gj＝(g1j,g2j,...,glj)TVector of negative indicator is Bj＝(b1j,b2j,...,bwj)TTaking Hj，GjAnd BjAll are larger than zero, the number of J is set as J, and the number of o, l and w is set as O, L, W;
the construction of the comprehensive evaluation index system is shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 evaluation index System
Figure FDA0002434962550000011
2. The comprehensive benefit evaluation model building method of the comprehensive energy system according to claim 1, characterized in that the load proportion can be adjusted: representing the proportion of the load available for calling in the total load, wherein the calling load is the load which is reduced within a specified time period according to the system scheduling requirement so as to smooth the peak load, or the load level is increased so as to absorb the load of clean energy;
block load prediction accuracy: deeply subdividing blocks of the system, and predicting the load of each block in each time period when load prediction is carried out; the index value is the average value of the load prediction accuracy of all blocks in all time periods;
coupling conversion efficiency: the conversion efficiency among water, electricity, heat and gas energy sources in a comprehensive energy system is indicated;
independent device transmission and storage efficiency: the transmission efficiency of the energy supply equipment with transmission loss deducted in the transmission process and the storage efficiency in the energy storage and release processes are represented;
reliability of energy supply: the index representing the continuous energy supply capacity of the system is the enlargement of the power supply reliability index, and the calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0002434962550000021
wherein SR is the reliability of energy supply, TSAverage energy outage time, T, for the userTThe statistical period time.
3. The method for establishing the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of the integrated energy system according to claim 1, wherein the dynamic index in the index calculation method takes a value once per hour and is calculated according to 24 hours on a scheduling day.
4. The method for establishing the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of the integrated energy system according to claim 1, wherein the efficiency value of the kth DMU is obtained by solving the following model:
the first-stage model:
minε (2)
Figure FDA0002434962550000022
Figure FDA0002434962550000023
Figure FDA0002434962550000031
λj≥0(j＝1,...,J) (6)
λ is the undivided efficiency value multiplier.
5. The integrated energy system benefit evaluation model building method according to claim 4, characterized in that the second-stage model is built on the basis of the first-stage model:
and a second stage model:
minε (7)
Figure FDA0002434962550000032
Figure FDA0002434962550000033
Figure FDA0002434962550000034
Figure FDA0002434962550000035
λj≥0(j＝1,...,J) (12)
ε represents the efficiency.
6. The method for establishing the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of the integrated energy system according to claim 5, wherein the second-stage model is optimized and integrated to obtain a third-stage model;
the third-stage model:
Figure FDA0002434962550000036
Figure FDA0002434962550000037
Figure FDA0002434962550000041
αo≥0(o＝1,...,O) (16)
βl≥0(l＝1,...,L) (17)
wherein the parameter α added in the formulas (14) and (15)oAnd βlAnd deltawEfficiency multiplier for different indexes; and solving the third-stage model to obtain the DMU efficiency value to be solved.
7. The method for establishing the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of the integrated energy system according to any one of claims 4 to 6, wherein X is setik,tRepresenting the ith input index, X, for the kth DMU over time period tik,t,gIs a positive indicator, Xik,t,bIs a negative indicator, Yrk,tIs the r-th output index, Yrk,t,gIs a positive indicator, Yrk,t,bIs a negative indicator; zfk,tThe index value parameter of the kth DMU in the time period t is represented, and the variation of the index value of the index in the time period t compared with the previous time period is reflected; the total time period is T, the input indexes are m, the output indexes are n, the index variation is F, and the following steps are taken:
Figure FDA0002434962550000042
Figure FDA0002434962550000043
then for the kth DMU, the objective function with the dynamic DEA model is:
Figure FDA0002434962550000044
the constraint conditions are as follows:
Figure FDA0002434962550000045
Figure FDA0002434962550000046
Figure FDA0002434962550000047
wherein, ξi、ψrAnd ζfEfficiency multiplier for input variable, output variable, and delta, respectively, where ξ is requestedi≥εk、ψr≥εk，ζf≥εkEquations (20) to (23) are models that are guided by the input index, and models that are guided by the output index are:
Figure FDA0002434962550000051
Figure FDA0002434962550000052
Figure FDA0002434962550000053
Figure FDA0002434962550000054
the model can be solved to obtain an efficiency multiplier under dynamic conditions, here set at ξi,op、ψr,opAnd ζf,opThen, for the jth DMU, the efficiency at the time period t is:
Figure FDA0002434962550000055
the total efficiency is:
Figure FDA0002434962550000056
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