CN110390078A - Failure set creation method is mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation - Google Patents
Failure set creation method is mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses failure set creation method is mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation, timing correlation is generated based on timing dependence coefficient and mass-sends fault set；Based on space, rate coefficient generates space correlation mass-sending fault set simultaneously；Timing correlation mass-sending fault set and space correlation mass-sending fault set is merged, and will uniline taking-up in line combination two-by-two, one group of failure of composition；Duplicate line combination two-by-two, duplicate uniline are deleted, remaining line combination two-by-two, uniline are space-time fault set；The probability of each group failure and descending sequence in space-time fault set are calculated, obtains mass-sending fault set under external disaster.The present invention assigns external disaster and causes failure spatial and temporal association, provides beneficial complement for the mass-sending fault set under external disaster.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to failure set creation method is mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation, belong to power grid peace
Full stability analysis and technical field of preventing and reducing natural disasters.
Background technique
External disaster is always the main reason for leading to grid collapses.In recent years, the power failure induced by external disaster
Accident happens occasionally, and the defence frame that has a power failure extends into extensive common recognition to natural calamity early warning.The when space division that external disaster develops
Cloth feature and its uncertainty for inducing electric network fault, there is an urgent need to will the security and stability analysis based on certainty criterion to power grid
Operation risk assessment expand, by the three lines of defence based on power system security stability control techniques directive/guide certainty scene control to
Risk control based on dynamic fault scene extends.
The temporal and spatial evolution of external disaster shows only to combine tuple by specified failure in advance, limits fault set number
Mode filter forecast failure collection be it is unreasonable, mass-sending failure simply indicate that there is also artificially put disturbance with simultaneous faults
Big possibility.The generation of external disaster can acutely change running environment outside electric system, and it is big high weight probability of malfunction easily occur
In the low heavy probability of malfunction the case where.Therefore, with the forecast failure collection in conventional dynamic safety analysis (DSA) by management and running personnel
Difference is preset by rule of thumb, the evolutionary process of forecast failure collection and external disaster under external disaster and the fortune of electric system
Row structure is closely related.
Therefore, accrued and disaster homology, correlation when forecast failure collection generates under external disaster, when screening and sequencing, should draw
Enter the closely related sequence index of the development trend of the power networks risk with external disaster and concern, enhances and disturbed under external disaster
The science and specific aim of dynamic scene setting.
Summary of the invention
Purpose: introducing it is an object of the invention to the generation to mass-send fault set under external disaster with screening and external disaster
And the closely related sequence index of development trend of the power networks risk of concern.Due to using temporal correlation index, this
Invention can effectively enhance the science and specific aim that scene setting is disturbed under external disaster.
Technical solution: in order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention are as follows:
To achieve the goals above, the present invention is to realize by the following technical solutions:
Failure set creation method, including following step are mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation of the invention
It is rapid:
(1) it generates timing correlation and mass-sends fault set: timing correlation being generated based on timing dependence coefficient and mass-sends fault set；
(2) it generates space correlation and mass-sends fault set: fault set is mass-sended based on the space space correlation of rate coefficient generation simultaneously；
(3) merge and obtain space-time fault set: step (1) is merged with the fault set that step (2) generates, and will route two-by-two
Uniline takes out in combination, forms one group of failure；Duplicate line combination two-by-two is deleted, duplicate uniline is remaining
Line combination, uniline obtain space-time fault set two-by-two；
(4) it sorts to generate by probability of malfunction and mass-sends fault set under external disaster: calculating each group failure in space-time fault set
Probability and descending sequence obtain mass-sending fault set under external disaster.
In step (1), realize that the specific method is as follows based on timing dependence coefficient generation timing correlation mass-sending fault set:
For any one route La, the probability assessment value before and after investigating the moment in each certain period of time is taken to form the route
Probability assessment time series Pa={ Pa_t-n,…,Pa_t,…,Pa_t+m, wherein t is to investigate moment, Pa_t, to investigate moment t line
Road LaCorresponding probability of malfunction, Pa_t-nTo investigate n-th of the time point of moment t forward upper corresponding probability of malfunction, Pa_t+mTo examine
Examine corresponding probability of malfunction on the m time point of moment t backward.The value of n and m can according to the actual situation with require, calculate
It acquires.
For any two lines road LaAnd LbCorresponding probability assessment sequence PaAnd PbTiming dependence coefficient ρabIt is as follows
Formula:
In formula, cov (Pa,Pb) it is PaAnd PbCovariance, D (Pa)、D(Pb) it is respectively PaAnd PbVariance.
Based on above-mentioned timing dependence coefficient calculated result, route two-by-two between all routes that probability assessment is filtered out
Timing dependence coefficient form timing dependence matrix.With behavior unit, by the big Mr. Yu's positive number threshold of corresponding element in every row
The corresponding line combination of column of value (threshold value can off-line setting calculation obtain) together, forms one group of failure.All rows are corresponding
Each group failure be combined into set, deleting wherein duplicate route two-by-two is timing correlation mass-sending fault set.
In step (2), based on the space space correlation mass-sending of rate coefficient generation simultaneously fault set, the specific method is as follows:
For any one route La, pass through geographic grid (such as 3km*3km) set in, external disaster measured value or
The geographic grid of the big Mr. Yu's threshold value D of predicted value X is known as effective grid.Set A={ a of all effective grid compositions1,……,
anIt is known as disaster X relative line LaPath.N is the number of effective grid, anFor grid number.Threshold value D, can be according to reality
Situation and requirement, calculating acquire.
For any two lines road LaAnd LbPath in effective grid set AiWith Aj, in two-by-two grid in external calamity
Space simultaneity factor alpha under evil XijValue is as follows: if aikWith ajkIt is overlapped, then αij=1；If aikWith ajkIt is adjacent, then 0≤
αij≤ 1, preferably αij=0.6；Otherwise αij=0.Under adjacencies, αijValue can according to the actual situation with require, calculating is asked
?；Wherein, aikRepresent route LaK-th of active block, a in effective grid setjkRepresent route LbKth in effective grid set
A active block.
Calculate any two lines road LaAnd LbThe space broken down while rate coefficient η at external disaster XabIt is as follows
Formula:
It will set AiIn all effective grids and set AjIn all effective grids, the space that effective grid acquires two-by-two
Simultaneity factor alphaijIt is maximized in set as route LaAnd LbSpace while rate coefficient ηab。
By the space of route rate coefficient η simultaneously two-by-two between all routes for filtering out of external disaster X lower probability assessmentabGroup
At the space external disaster X simultaneity matrix.With behavior unit, corresponding element in every row is greater than to the corresponding line combination of column of M
Together, wherein duplicate route two-by-two is deleted, space correlation mass-sending fault set is obtained.
Wherein, the specific value of 0 < M≤1, M can according to the actual situation with require, calculating acquires.It indicates to filter out when M=1
Space correlation mass-sending fault set in each faulty line combine at external disaster X pass through identical effective grid.
In step (4), the probabilistic method for calculating each group failure in the space-time fault set that step (3) obtain is as follows:
Certain failure combines Y by route { L in space-time fault set1,……,LkComposition, the corresponding probability of malfunction of every route
For { P1,……,Pk, then the probability P that the failure combinesY, calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, LkRepresent kth route, PkRepresent the probability of malfunction of kth route；
Fault set generating means are mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation, it is characterised in that: including as follows
Module:
It generates timing correlation and mass-sends fault set module: timing correlation being generated based on timing dependence coefficient and mass-sends fault set；
It generates space correlation and mass-sends fault set module: fault set is mass-sended based on the space space correlation of rate coefficient generation simultaneously；
It generates space-time fault set module: timing correlation mass-sending fault set being merged with space correlation mass-sending fault set, and will
Uniline takes out in line combination two-by-two, forms one group of failure；Delete duplicate line combination two-by-two, duplicate single line
Road, remaining line combination two-by-two, uniline obtain space-time fault set；
It generates and mass-sends fault set module under external disaster: calculating in space-time fault set the probability of each group failure and descending
Sequence, obtains mass-sending fault set under external disaster.
The utility model has the advantages that mass-sending fault set generation side under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation provided by the invention
Forecast failure collection in method, with conventional dynamic safety analysis (DSA) presets difference, this hair by management and running personnel by rule of thumb
Bright science and specific aim due to using temporal correlation index, can effectively enhance fault set generation under external disaster.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the work flow diagram of the method for the present invention；
Fig. 2 is route L1、L2、L3And L4Effective grid schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will be further explained with reference to the accompanying drawing.
As shown in Figure 1, mass-sending failure set creation method, including following step under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation
It is rapid:
Step 1: it generates timing correlation and mass-sends fault set:
Firstly, calculating the timing dependence coefficient of any route and All other routes.Calculation method is as follows:
For any one route La, the probability assessment value before and after investigating the moment in each certain period of time is taken to form the route
Probability assessment time series Pa={ Pa_t-n,…,Pa_t,…,Pa_t+m, wherein t is to investigate moment, Pa_t, to investigate moment t line
Road LaCorresponding probability of malfunction, Pa_t-nTo investigate n-th of the time point of moment t forward upper corresponding probability of malfunction, Pa_t+mTo examine
Examine corresponding probability of malfunction on the m time point of moment t backward.The value of n and m can according to the actual situation with require, calculate
It acquires.
For any two lines road LaAnd LbCorresponding probability assessment sequence PaAnd PbTiming dependence coefficient ρabIt is as follows
Formula:
In formula, cov (Pa,Pb) it is PaAnd PbCovariance, D (Pa)、D(Pb) it is respectively PaAnd PbVariance.
For example, for investigating the route L in region1、L2、L3And L4, the probability of malfunction for investigating the moment is respectively as follows: 0.85,
0.88,0.60,0.63.Discontinuity surface when respectively taking before and after investigating the moment 3 forms 4 groups of route probability assessment time serieses: P1=
{ 0.79,0.55,0.50,0.85,0.89,0.90,0.80 }；P2=0.82,0.56,0.52,0.88,0.90,0.92,
0.85}；P3={ 0.73,0.91,0.95,0.60,0.53,0.48,0.83 }；P4=0.77,0.93,0.96,0.63,0.54,
0.50,0.88 }.Calculate the timing dependence coefficient between each route: ρ12=ρ21=0.997, ρ13=ρ31=-0.889, ρ14=ρ41
=-0.878, ρ23=ρ32=-0.868, ρ24=ρ42=-0.825, ρ34=ρ43=0.991.
Secondly, the timing dependence coefficient between all routes that probability assessment is filtered out forms timing dependence square
Battle array.
For example, for the route L in above-mentioned investigation region1、L2、L3And L4, form following timing dependence matrix:
Then, for the timing dependence coefficient of route forms timing dependence matrix two-by-two between all routes.With row
For unit, by the corresponding route of column of the big Mr. Yu's positive number threshold value of corresponding element in every row (threshold value can off-line setting calculation obtain)
It combines, forms one group of failure.The corresponding each group failure of all rows is combined into set, deletes wherein duplicate line two-by-two
Road is timing correlation mass-sending fault set.
For example, for the route L in above-mentioned investigation region1、L2、L3And L4, taking positive number threshold value is 0.5, then respectively can be with
Form following 2 groups of failures: { L1、L2}、{L3、L4}.2 groups of failures constitute timing correlation mass-sending fault set.
Step 2: it generates space correlation and mass-sends fault set:
Firstly, calculating the spaces of any route and All other routes rate coefficient simultaneously.Calculation method is as follows:
For any one route La, in geographic grid (such as 3km*3km) set passed through, external disaster actual measurement or pre-
The geographic grid of the big Mr. Yu's threshold value D of measured value X is known as effective grid.Set A={ a of all effective grid compositions1,……,an}
Referred to as disaster X relative line LaPath.N is the number of effective grid, anFor Marking the cell.Threshold value D, can be according to practical feelings
Condition and requirement, calculating acquire.
As shown in Fig. 2, for example, for the route L in above-mentioned investigation region1、L2、L3And L4, by threshold value D (assuming that D
=0.5) after screening, corresponding some effective grids combination is respectively as follows: A1=G31, G41, G42, G43, G53, G54,
G64, G65, G66, G76, G77 }；A2={ G14, G15, G25, G26, G27, G37, G38 }；A3=G53, G63, G73, G72,
G82, G92 }；A4={ G38, G48, G58, G68, G78, G88 }.
For any two lines road LaAnd LbPath in effective geographical grid set AiWith Aj, in grid is outside two-by-two
Space simultaneity factor alpha under portion disaster XijValue is as follows: if aikWith ajkIt is overlapped, then αij=1；If aikWith ajkIt is adjacent,
Then 0≤αij≤ 1, preferably αij=0.6；Otherwise αij=0.Under adjacencies, αijValue can according to the actual situation with require, count
It acquires；Wherein, aikRepresent route LaK-th of active block, a in effective grid setjkRepresent route LbEffective grid set
In k-th of active block.
Define any two lines road LaAnd LbThe space broken down while rate coefficient η at external disaster XabIt is as follows
Formula:
For example, for the route L in above-mentioned investigation region1、L2、L3And L4, take αij=0.8, then η12=η21=0, η13=
η31=1, η14=η41=0.6, η23=η32=0, η24=η42=1, η34=η43=0.
Secondly, the space simultaneity factor coefficient composition between all routes that the assessment of external disaster X lower probability is filtered out is outer
The portion space disaster X simultaneity matrix.
For example, for the route L in above-mentioned investigation region1、L2、L3And L4, form such as down space simultaneity matrix:
Then, for above-mentioned space simultaneity matrix, with behavior unit, the column by corresponding element in every row greater than M are corresponding
Line combination together, composition space correlation mass-send fault set.
Wherein, the specific value of 0 < M≤1, M can according to the actual situation with require, calculating acquires.It indicates to filter out when M=1
Space correlation mass-sending fault set in each faulty line combine at external disaster X pass through identical effective grid.
For example, for the route L in above-mentioned investigation region1、L2、L3And L4, M=0.5 is taken, then can form following 3 respectively
Group failure: { L1、L3}、{L2、L4}、{L1、L4}.3 groups of failures constitute space correlation mass-sending fault set.
Step 3: merging obtains space-time fault set:
Step (1) is merged with the fault set that step (2) generates, and will uniline takes out in line combination two-by-two, delete
Except duplicate line combination two-by-two, duplicate uniline, remaining line combination two-by-two, uniline are space-time failure
Collection；.
For example, for the route L in above-mentioned investigation region1、L2、L3And L4, it includes 2 groups of events that timing correlation, which mass-sends fault set,
Barrier: { L1、L2}、{L3、L4, it includes 3 groups of failures: { L that fault set is mass-sended in space correlation1、L3}、{L2、L4}、{L1、L4}.By above-mentioned 2
A fault set merges, and deletes duplicate failure combination (combining in this example without duplicate failure), and meter and each item of script
After the single failure of route, space-time fault set: { L can be obtained1}、{L2}、{L3}、{L4}、{L1、L2}、{L1、L3}、{L1、L4}、{L2、
L4}、{L3、L4}。
Step 4: mass-sending fault set is generated by probability of malfunction sequence:
Firstly, calculating the probability of each group failure in the fault set that step (3) obtain.
Certain failure combines Y by route { L in space-time fault set1,……,LkForm, corresponding probability of malfunction is
{P1,……,Pk, then the probability P that the failure combinesY, calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, LkRepresent kth route, PkRepresent the probability of malfunction of kth route；
For example, for the route L in above-mentioned investigation region1、L2、L3And L4, the space-time fault set that is obtained according to step 3:
{L1}、{L2}、{L3}、{L4}、{L1、L2}、{L1、L3}、{L1、L4}、{L2、L4}、{L3、L4}.It can be calculated according to above formula and investigate the moment
Each group failure is corresponding to probability of malfunction:
Failure combines { L1Corresponding probability of malfunction P1=0.85；
Failure combines { L2Corresponding probability of malfunction P2=0.88；
Failure combines { L3Corresponding probability of malfunction P3=0.60；
Failure combines { L4Corresponding probability of malfunction P2=0.63；
Failure combines { L1、L2Corresponding probability of malfunction P12=P1×P2=0.75；
Failure combines { L1、L3Corresponding probability of malfunction P13=P1×P3=0.51；
Failure combines { L1、L4Corresponding probability of malfunction P14=P1×P4=0.54；
Failure combines { L2、L4Corresponding probability of malfunction P24=P2×P4=0.55；
Failure combines { L3、L4Corresponding probability of malfunction P34=P3×P4=0.38；
Then, the descending sequence of probability value combined according to failure each in fault set, obtains under final external disaster
Mass-send fault set.
For example, for the route L in above-mentioned investigation region1、L2、L3And L4, after being ranked up according to the probability of each group failure
Fault set is mass-sended under obtained external disaster are as follows: { L2}、{L1}、{L1、L2}、{L4}、{L3}、{L2、L4}、{L1、L4}、{L1、L3}、
{L3、L4}。
It is preset by rule of thumb not with the forecast failure collection in conventional dynamic safety analysis (DSA) by management and running personnel
Together, the present invention is due to using temporal correlation index, for mass-send the generation of fault set under external disaster and screening introduce with
The closely related sequence index of the development trend of external disaster and the power networks risk of concern, effectively enhances under external disaster
The science and specific aim that fault set generates.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can provide as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or reality combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the application
Apply the form of example.Moreover, it wherein includes the computer of computer usable program code that the application, which can be used in one or more,
The computer program implemented in usable storage medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.) produces
The form of product.
The application is referring to method, the process of equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present application
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that every one stream in flowchart and/or the block diagram can be realized by computer program instructions
The combination of process and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.It can provide these computer programs
Instruct the processor of general purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices to produce
A raw machine, so that being generated by the instruction that computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices execute for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, is able to guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works, so that it includes referring to that instruction stored in the computer readable memory, which generates,
Enable the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one box of one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that counting
Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, thus in computer or
The instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it should be pointed out that: for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, various improvements and modifications may be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, these improvements and modifications are also answered
It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. mass-sending failure set creation method under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation, it is characterised in that: including following step
It is rapid:
Timing correlation, which is generated, based on timing dependence coefficient mass-sends fault set；Based on space, rate coefficient generates space correlation group simultaneously
Send out fault set；
Fault set is mass-sended in timing correlation mass-sending fault set and space correlation to merge, and will uniline takes in line combination two-by-two
Out, one group of failure is formed；Delete duplicate line combination two-by-two, duplicate uniline is remaining line combination two-by-two, single
Route is space-time fault set；
The probability of each group failure and descending sequence in space-time fault set are calculated, obtains mass-sending fault set under external disaster.
2. failure set creation method is mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation according to claim 1,
Be characterized in that: described based on timing dependence coefficient generation timing correlation mass-sending fault set, the specific method is as follows:
For any one route La, the probability assessment value before and after investigating the moment in each certain period of time is taken to form the route probability
Assess time series Pa={ Pa_t-n,…,Pa_t,…,Pa_t+m, wherein t is to investigate moment, Pa_t, to investigate moment t route La
Corresponding probability of malfunction, Pa_t-nTo investigate n-th of the time point of moment t forward upper corresponding probability of malfunction, Pa_t+mWhen to investigate
Carve corresponding probability of malfunction on the m time point of t backward；
For any two lines road LaAnd LbCorresponding probability assessment sequence PaAnd PbTiming dependence coefficient ρabSuch as following formula:
In formula, cov (Pa,Pb) it is PaAnd PbCovariance, D (Pa)、D(Pb) it is respectively PaAnd PbVariance；
Based on above-mentioned timing dependence coefficient calculated result, between all routes that probability assessment is filtered out two-by-two route when
Sequence relative coefficient forms timing dependence matrix；With behavior unit, by the big Mr. Yu's positive number threshold value of corresponding element in every row
It arranges corresponding line combination together, forms one group of failure；The corresponding each group failure of all rows is combined into set, is deleted wherein
Duplicate route two-by-two obtains timing correlation mass-sending fault set.
3. failure set creation method is mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation according to claim 1,
Be characterized in that: described based on the space space correlation mass-sending of rate coefficient generation simultaneously fault set, the specific method is as follows:
For any one route La, in the geographic grid set passed through, external disaster measured value or predicted value X big Mr. Yu door
The geographic grid of threshold value D is known as effective grid；Set A={ a of all effective grid compositions1,……,anTo be known as disaster X opposite
Route LaPath；N is the number of effective grid, anFor grid number；
For any two lines road LaAnd LbPath in effective grid set AiWith Aj, in two-by-two effective grid in external disaster
Space simultaneity factor alpha under XijValue is as follows: if aikWith ajkIt is overlapped, then αij=1；If aikWith ajkIt is adjacent, then 0≤αij
≤1；Otherwise αij=0；Wherein, aikRepresent route LaK-th of active block, a in effective grid setjkRepresent route LbEffective net
K-th of active block in lattice set；
Calculate any two lines road LaAnd LbThe space broken down while rate coefficient η at external disaster Xab, such as following formula:
By the space of route rate coefficient η simultaneously two-by-two between all routes for filtering out of external disaster X lower probability assessmentabComposition is outer
The portion space disaster X simultaneity matrix；With behavior unit, the corresponding line combination of column by corresponding element in every row greater than M is one
It rises, deletes wherein duplicate route two-by-two, obtain space correlation mass-sending fault set, wherein 0 < M≤1.
4. failure set creation method is mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation according to claim 3,
It is characterized in that: aikWith ajkUnder adjacencies, αij=0.6.
5. failure set creation method is mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation according to claim 1,
Be characterized in that: the specific method is as follows for the probability for calculating each group failure in space-time fault set:
Certain failure combines Y by route { L in space-time fault set1,……,LkForm, the corresponding probability of malfunction of every route is
{P1,……,Pk, then the probability P that the failure combinesY, calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, LkRepresent kth route, PkRepresent the probability of malfunction of kth route.
6. mass-sending fault set generating means under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation, it is characterised in that: including such as lower die
Block:
It generates timing correlation and mass-sends fault set module: timing correlation being generated based on timing dependence coefficient and mass-sends fault set；
It generates space correlation and mass-sends fault set module: fault set is mass-sended based on the space space correlation of rate coefficient generation simultaneously；
It generates space-time fault set module: timing correlation mass-sending fault set being merged with space correlation mass-sending fault set, and will two-by-two
Uniline takes out in line combination, forms one group of failure；Duplicate line combination two-by-two is deleted, duplicate uniline remains
Remaining line combination two-by-two, uniline obtain space-time fault set；
It generates and mass-sends fault set module under external disaster: calculating the probability of each group failure and descending row in space-time fault set
Sequence obtains mass-sending fault set under external disaster.
7. fault set generating means are mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation according to claim 6,
It is characterized in that:
It is described that based on timing dependence coefficient generation timing correlation mass-sending fault set, the specific method is as follows:
For any one route La, the probability assessment value before and after investigating the moment in each certain period of time is taken to form the route probability
Assess time series Pa={ Pa_t-n,…,Pa_t,…,Pa_t+m, wherein t is to investigate moment, Pa_t, to investigate moment t route La
Corresponding probability of malfunction, Pa_t-nTo investigate n-th of the time point of moment t forward upper corresponding probability of malfunction, Pa_t+mWhen to investigate
Carve corresponding probability of malfunction on the m time point of t backward；
For any two lines road LaAnd LbCorresponding probability assessment sequence PaAnd PbTiming dependence coefficient ρabSuch as following formula:
In formula, cov (Pa,Pb) it is PaAnd PbCovariance, D (Pa)、D(Pb) it is respectively PaAnd PbVariance；
Based on above-mentioned timing dependence coefficient calculated result, between all routes that probability assessment is filtered out two-by-two route when
Sequence relative coefficient forms timing dependence matrix；With behavior unit, by the big Mr. Yu's positive number threshold value of corresponding element in every row
It arranges corresponding line combination together, forms one group of failure；The corresponding each group failure of all rows is combined into set, is deleted wherein
Duplicate route two-by-two is timing correlation mass-sending fault set.
8. fault set generating means are mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation according to claim 6,
Be characterized in that: described based on the space space correlation mass-sending of rate coefficient generation simultaneously fault set, the specific method is as follows:
For any one route La, in the geographic grid set passed through, external disaster measured value or predicted value X big Mr. Yu door
The geographic grid of threshold value D is known as effective grid；Set A={ a of all effective grid compositions1,……,anTo be known as disaster X opposite
Route LaPath；N is the number of effective grid, anFor grid number；
For any two lines road LaAnd LbPath in effective grid set AiWith Aj, in two-by-two effective grid in external disaster
Space simultaneity factor alpha under XijValue is as follows: if aikWith ajkIt is overlapped, then αij=1；If aikWith ajkIt is adjacent, then 0≤αij
≤1；Otherwise αij=0；Wherein, aikRepresent route LaK-th of active block, a in effective grid setjkRepresent route LbEffective net
K-th of active block in lattice set；
Calculate any two lines road LaAnd LbThe space broken down while rate coefficient η at external disaster XabSuch as following formula:
By the space of route rate coefficient η simultaneously two-by-two between all routes for filtering out of external disaster X lower probability assessmentabComposition is outer
The portion space disaster X simultaneity matrix；With behavior unit, the corresponding line combination of column by corresponding element in every row greater than M is one
It rises, deletes wherein duplicate route two-by-two, obtain space correlation mass-sending fault set, wherein 0 < M≤1.
9. fault set generating means are mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation according to claim 8,
It is characterized in that: aikWith ajkUnder adjacencies, αij=0.6.
10. fault set generating means are mass-sended under a kind of external disaster based on temporal correlation according to claim 6,
Be characterized in that: the specific method is as follows for the probability for calculating each group failure in space-time fault set:
Certain failure combines Y by route { L in space-time fault set1,……,LkForm, the corresponding probability of malfunction of every route is
{P1,……,Pk, then the probability P that the failure combinesY, calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, LkRepresent kth route, PkRepresent the probability of malfunction of kth route.
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