CN110378718A - A kind of sale of electricity firm quotes analogy method for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform - Google Patents
A kind of sale of electricity firm quotes analogy method for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of sale of electricity firm quotes analogy methods that can be used for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform, are related to power market simulation analysis field.The influence that quotation strategy is formulated by considering the factors such as market rules, relation between market supply and demand, propose the calculation method of sale of electricity company power purchase profit, risk cost, inconvenience cost and violation risk cost, and it is used for the quotation utility function and plan model of sale of electricity company, it is finally solved using Monte carlo algorithm, has obtained the simulation quotation of sale of electricity company.This method can more accurately simulation market bid results for developing Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform, simultaneously, trade center can be used to simulate the different marketing situations disciplined as a warning under dynamics, detects the validity and reasonability of policy making, may advantageously facilitate the fairness and competitiveness of marketing.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power market simulation analysis field, in particular to a kind of sale of electricity for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform
Firm quotes analogy method.
Background technique
With being pushed further into for power system reform, power industry sale of electricity side multiple competition pattern is gradually formed, city
System constantly tends to be perfect, but the increasing of main market players, the development of short-term trading, the difficulty for progress of trading are also increasing.
The effect of power market reform is heavily dependent on the design of market rules, formally implements front and back in market rules, needs
The research and assessment that multi-angle is carried out to it, analyze its effect and influence.And it being capable of detailed mould by Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform
Quasi- main market players's behavior, and at low cost, Yi Chongfu, receive more and more attention.
It is domestic at present to concentrate the quotation analogy method research in bidding less sale of electricity company, and existing research model
It is not furtherd investigate for sale of electricity company, only concentrates the middle scalar bidded as target to improve, lacked to other power purchase approach
Analysis, the influence that the market rules such as violation early warning mechanism formulate quotation strategy is had ignored, for example, most of electricity market is imitative
True algorithm is only to be concentrated the middle scalar bidded as the continuous correction strategy of target based on RE learning algorithm to improve, lacked to it
The analysis of his power purchase approach and the research of market rules.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of sale of electricity firm quotes analogy method for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform, collection
The factors such as sale of electricity company power purchase profit, risk cost, inconvenience cost and violation risk cost are comprehensively considered when middle trade at competitive price,
So that more meeting market rules and practical national conditions.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a kind of sale of electricity firm quotes simulations for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform
Method, comprising:
A, it obtains i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n and passes through the profit expectation for concentrating acquisition of bidding:
In formula, qniFor the amount of declaring of sale of electricity company i-th of capacity section of n, λniFor declaring for i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n
Valence, λnsellFor the average sales rate of electricity of sale of electricity company n, λ0To go out clear electricity price, f (λ0) it is to go out clear electricity under the similar supply-demand relationship of history
The probability density function of valence；
B, the profit expectation that i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n is obtained by other power purchase approach in addition to concentrating and bidding
Are as follows:
Rni2=qni(1-pni)(λnsell-λnelse) (2)
In formula,For the tender probability of i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n, λnelseFor sale of electricity public affairs
Take charge of the average sales rate of electricity of n, λnelsePass through the historical average price of other approach power purchases for sale of electricity company n；
C, the profit expectation of all capacity sections of sale of electricity company n are as follows:
I is to concentrate the declarable capacity number of segment of sale of electricity company in trade at competitive price in formula；
D, inconvenience cost and risk cost that sale of electricity company n passes through other approach power purchases are obtained:
α in formulanFor the inconvenient coefficient of sale of electricity company n；
E, sale of electricity company n is because of the punishment cost that is subject in violation of rules and regulations are as follows:
In formula, β is the violation penalty coefficient of trade center, λaveFor all sale of electricity companies under the similar supply-demand relationship of history
Average price, QnFor the aggregate demand electricity of sale of electricity company n；
F, the total utility U of the quotation strategy of sale of electricity company nn=Rn-Cn1-Cn2, thus establish Nonlinear programming Model:
In formula, QnFor the aggregate demand electricity of sale of electricity company n；
G, in the case where meeting constraint condition, using Monte carlo algorithm simulation sale of electricity company n quotation strategy with
Machine generates a large amount of quotation strategy, solves the U under each quotation strategyn, quotation strategy when choosing value of utility maximum is as most
Strategy eventually.
Preferably, in above-mentioned technical proposal, the aggregate demand electricity Q of the sale of electricity company nnAre as follows:
Q is the demand electricity of i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n in formula.
Preferably, in above-mentioned technical proposal, the probability density function of clear electricity price out are as follows:
In formula, λmin~λmaxTo go out clear Electricity price fluctuation range, μ=(λ under the similar supply-demand relationship of historymin+λmax)/2 are
The mean value of clear electricity price out, σ=(λmax-λmin)/6 are standard deviation.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. the concentration trade at competitive price that the present invention is participated in for sale of electricity company under market pricing mechanism, quotation, it is contemplated that concentrate
The profit for power purchase of bidding, the factors such as profit, risk, inconvenience and the violation risk of other power purchase approach, can fully consider political affairs
The influence of plan factor (market rules that such as trade center is formulated), relation between market supply and demand can allow and sell so that quotation is more reasonable
Electric company obtains more incomes in marketing, more meets market rules and practical national conditions, relative to conventional method more section
It learns.
2. the method for the present invention is used to develop Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform, it can be with more acurrate simulation market bid results, together
When, trade center can be used to simulate the different marketing situations disciplined as a warning under dynamics, detect the validity and rationally of policy making
Property, it may advantageously facilitate the fairness and competitiveness of marketing.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the method flow of the sale of electricity firm quotes analogy method according to the present invention for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform
Figure.
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawing, specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail, it is to be understood that guarantor of the invention
Shield range is not limited by the specific implementation.
The sale of electricity firm quotes analogy method for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform in the embodiment, specifically includes:
1. collecting, the data of analysis lattice sale of electricity company, clear price probability density function function is calculated.
The data definition being collected into is as follows:
Declarable capacity number of segment: I
It participates in concentrating the sale of electricity company number bidded: N
The aggregate demand electricity of sale of electricity company n: Qn
Go out clear Electricity price fluctuation range: λ under the similar supply-demand relationship of historymin~λmax
The average sales rate of electricity of sale of electricity company n: λnsell
The historical average price that sale of electricity company n passes through decentralized bidding fashion power purchase: λnelse
The inconvenient coefficient of sale of electricity company n: αn
The average price of all sale of electricity companies under the similar supply-demand relationship of history: λave
The violation penalty coefficient of trade center: β
Clear electricity price λ out0General Normal Distribution, probability density function is according to Pauta criterion approximate calculation: going out clear
The mean value of electricity price is μ=(λmin+λmax)/2, standard deviation are σ=(λmax-λmin)/6, the then probability density function of clear electricity price out are as follows:
2. calculating the utility function of sale of electricity company.
Define correlated variables
The amount of declaring of all capacity sections of sale of electricity company n: qn={ qn1,qn2,…,qni,…,qnI}
All capacity sections of sale of electricity company n declare valence: λn={ λn1,λn2,…,λni,…,λnI}
The profit expectation of all capacity sections of sale of electricity company n: Rn
The expectation of sale of electricity company n inconvenience cost and risk cost: Cn1
The expectation of the violation risk cost of sale of electricity company n: Cn2
The total utility of sale of electricity company n quotation strategy: Un
The sum of the amount of declaring of all capacity sections of sale of electricity company n should be total demand electricity:
According to the quotation rules that concentration is bidded, next section of sale of electricity company, which must not offer, is higher than the preceding paragraph quotation.Therefore, right
Valence λ is declared in i-th capacity section of sale of electricity company nni(i=2 ..., I-1), has:
λn(i+1)≤λni≤λn(i-1) (3)
The tender probability of i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n are as follows:
I-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n passes through the profit expectation for concentrating acquisition of bidding are as follows:
The modes such as still can be traded, be listed by bilateral negotiation after not getting the bid in view of part electricity are bought total to meet
Electrical demand, therefore capacity section i pass through other power purchase approach obtain profit expectation are as follows:
Rni2=qni(1-pni)(λnsell-λnelse) (6)
Therefore the profit expectation of all capacity sections of sale of electricity company n are as follows:
But on the one hand to increase additional operating process by other approach power purchases, the electricity price of other approach of another aspect is very
It is likely to be greater than uniform clearing pricing method, and the risk that can't buy electricity need to be undertaken, therefore can bring some inconvenience to sale of electricity company
Cost and risk cost.The desired value of the sum of all inconvenience costs and risk cost can with the quadratic function for electricity of not getting the bid come
It indicates:
If the average price of sale of electricity company differs larger with the average price of all sale of electricity companies, in most of transaction
The heart can assert that the sale of electricity company has the suspicion unlawful practices such as manipulate electricity price, go fishing or hitchhike.Power exchange is general
By quotation compare as judge sale of electricity company whether the important indicator of violation: quotation compares=quotation of the sale of electricity company/
Average price × 100% (segmentation quotation if it exists, the weighted average that the quotation of the sale of electricity company is each section of all sale of electricity companies
Quotation).Therefore, the quotation of sale of electricity company, which compares, more deviates 1, and it is bigger to be rated as a possibility that there are unlawful practices.
The economic punishment that sale of electricity company is subject to is directly proportional to its total amount of declaring, and the severity with its violation is in positive
It closes, specific size depends on the punishment dynamics of trade center.The desired value of the violation risk cost of sale of electricity company n can be used as it
The quadratic function of violation severity:
The total utility of the quotation strategy of sale of electricity company n are as follows:
Un=Rn-Cn1-Cn2 (10)
The quotation strategy that sale of electricity company n is generated should make its effectiveness UnIt maximizes, therefore establishes following Non-Linear Programming mould
Type:
3. simulating quotation strategy using Monte carlo algorithm.
Many optimization algorithms can effectively solve the nonlinear programming problem of (12) formula, but Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is more
The Imperfect Rationality and randomness of participant in the market can be embodied.
Use Monte carlo algorithm simulate n-th of sale of electricity company quotation strategy: in the case where meeting constraint condition with
Machine generates the i.e. a large amount of different { q of a large amount of quotation strategyn,λn, solve the value of utility U under each quotation strategyn, choose effectiveness
Quotation strategy when value is maximum is as final strategy.
Other N-1 sale of electricity company is similarly operated, the quotation strategy analog result of all sale of electricity companies is obtained.
According to Fig. 1, following embodiment illustrates how the simulation that the present invention is used for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform sale of electricity company
Quotation.
Method by taking the primary concentration trade at competitive price of certain power exchange as an example, to illustrate calculating simulation quotation.
1, it collects, analyze data, calculate clear price probability density function function.
The capacity number of segment I=3 that the trade center allows sale of electricity company to declare in set of organizations when trade at competitive price, trade center
Violation penalty coefficient β=1000, under the similar supply-demand relationship of history go out clear Electricity price fluctuation range be 399~406 (unit:
Member/MWh, similarly hereinafter), i.e. λmin=399, λmax=406；Totally 6 sale of electricity companies participate in concentrating and bid, and the history of sale of electricity company is average
Offer λave=403, other relevant informations of each sale of electricity company are as shown in table 1:
Table 1 is the relevant information of each sale of electricity company
Setting out clear electricity price is λ0, mean μ=(399+406)/2=402.5, standard deviation is σ=(406-399)/6=
1.1667, then the probability density function of clear electricity price out are as follows:
2. calculating the utility function of sale of electricity company.
Define correlated variables
If the amount of declaring of all capacity sections of sale of electricity company 1: q1={ q11,q12,q13}
If all capacity sections of sale of electricity company 1 declare valence: λ1={ λ11,λ12,λ13}
The quotation strategy that sale of electricity company 1 generates should make its effectiveness U1It maximizes, therefore establishes following Non-Linear Programming mould
Type:
Wherein,
3. simulating quotation strategy using Monte carlo algorithm.
1000 different { q are randomly generated in the case where meeting constraint condition1,λ1, it solves under each quotation strategy
Value of utility U1, choose quotation strategy when value of utility maximum: q1={ 676540,348630,73830 }, λ1=406.71,
406.12,403.63}。
Other 11 sale of electricity companies are similarly operated, obtain the quotation strategy analog result of all sale of electricity companies such as
Shown in table 2:
Table 2 is the quotation strategy analog result of each sale of electricity company
| Sale of electricity company | qn1 | λn1 | qn2 | λn2 | qn3 | λn3 |
| 1 | 676540 | 405.75 | 348630 | 404.34 | 73830 | 403.74 |
| 2 | 633330 | 405.82 | 577320 | 404.89 | 113350 | 400.53 |
| 3 | 214490 | 409.50 | 355610 | 405.76 | 1787900 | 405.37 |
| 4 | 328120 | 407.84 | 1155910 | 405.26 | 193970 | 404.97 |
| 5 | 381730 | 405.79 | 193520 | 405.40 | 1792750 | 405.20 |
| 6 | 983560 | 407.63 | 470520 | 403.80 | 109920 | 401.600 |
The aforementioned description to specific exemplary embodiment of the invention is in order to illustrate and illustration purpose.These descriptions
It is not wishing to limit the invention to disclosed precise forms, and it will be apparent that according to the above instruction, can much be changed
And variation.The purpose of selecting and describing the exemplary embodiment is that explaining specific principle of the invention and its actually answering
With so that those skilled in the art can be realized and utilize a variety of different exemplary implementation schemes of the invention and
Various chooses and changes.The scope of the present invention is intended to be limited by claims and its equivalents.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of sale of electricity firm quotes analogy method for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform characterized by comprising
A, it obtains i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n and passes through the profit expectation for concentrating acquisition of bidding:
In formula, qniFor the amount of declaring of sale of electricity company i-th of capacity section of n, λniValence is declared for i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n,
λnsellFor the average sales rate of electricity of sale of electricity company n, λ0To go out clear electricity price, f (λ0) it is to go out clear electricity price under the similar supply-demand relationship of history
Probability density function；
B, the profit expectation that i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n is obtained by other power purchase approach in addition to concentrating and bidding are as follows:
Rni2=qni(1-pni)(λnsell-λnelse) (2)
In formula,For the tender probability of i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n, λnelseFor sale of electricity company n's
Average sales rate of electricity, λnelsePass through the historical average price of other approach power purchases for sale of electricity company n；
C, the profit expectation of all capacity sections of sale of electricity company n are as follows:
I is to concentrate the declarable capacity number of segment of sale of electricity company in trade at competitive price in formula；
D, inconvenience cost and risk cost that sale of electricity company n passes through other approach power purchases are obtained:
α in formulanFor the inconvenient coefficient of sale of electricity company n；
E, sale of electricity company n is because of the punishment cost that is subject in violation of rules and regulations are as follows:
In formula, β is the violation penalty coefficient of trade center, λaveIt is averaged for all sale of electricity companies under the similar supply-demand relationship of history
Quotation, QnFor the aggregate demand electricity of sale of electricity company n；
F, the total utility U of the quotation strategy of sale of electricity company nn=Rn-Cn1-Cn2, thus establish Nonlinear programming Model:
In formula, QnFor the aggregate demand electricity of sale of electricity company n；
G, in the case where meeting constraint condition, using the quotation strategy of Monte carlo algorithm simulation sale of electricity company n to produce at random
Raw a large amount of quotation strategy, solves the U under each quotation strategyn, choose value of utility maximum when quotation strategy as final plan
Slightly.
2. being used for the sale of electricity firm quotes analogy method of Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that
The aggregate demand electricity Q of the sale of electricity company nnAre as follows:
Q is the demand electricity of i-th of capacity section of sale of electricity company n in formula.
3. being used for the sale of electricity firm quotes analogy method of Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that
The probability density function of clear electricity price out are as follows:
In formula, λmin~λmaxTo go out clear Electricity price fluctuation range, μ=(λ under the similar supply-demand relationship of historymin+λmax)/2 are clearly
The mean value of electricity price, σ=(λmax-λmin)/6 are standard deviation.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN111311432A (en) * | 2020-01-20 | 2020-06-19 | 云南电网有限责任公司 | Electricity purchasing bidding wind control optimization method for electricity selling company |
| CN112183967A (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2021-01-05 | 南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司 | Gas turbine unit control method and device based on operation model |
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| CN106779205A (en) * | 2016-12-08 | 2017-05-31 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | A kind of purchase sale of electricity optimization method of meter and the market share and value-added service cost of investment |
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| CN106156882A (en) * | 2016-06-07 | 2016-11-23 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of power plant bidding tariff analogy method for Quo on Electricity Market Simulating Platform |
| CN106373033A (en) * | 2016-10-09 | 2017-02-01 | 东南大学 | Power generation side bidding optimization method involving new energy |
| CN106779205A (en) * | 2016-12-08 | 2017-05-31 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | A kind of purchase sale of electricity optimization method of meter and the market share and value-added service cost of investment |
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| CN111311432A (en) * | 2020-01-20 | 2020-06-19 | 云南电网有限责任公司 | Electricity purchasing bidding wind control optimization method for electricity selling company |
| CN112183967A (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2021-01-05 | 南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司 | Gas turbine unit control method and device based on operation model |
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