CN110348639A - A kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique - Google Patents

A kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique Download PDF

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CN110348639A
CN110348639A CN201910638323.6A CN201910638323A CN110348639A CN 110348639 A CN110348639 A CN 110348639A CN 201910638323 A CN201910638323 A CN 201910638323A CN 110348639 A CN110348639 A CN 110348639A
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徐加放
王健
孙晗森
王德桂
马洪涛
马腾飞
杨刚
于政廉
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China University of Petroleum East China
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Abstract

The present invention relates to technical field of mine safety, in particular to a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique.The method is based on PCA-LVQ neural network, specifically includes the following steps: step 1: the distance and corresponding danger classes of collection coalfield effective thickness, specific capacity, water-bearing layer load transmission coefficient, effective protection thickness, fractal dimension and key stratum to coal seam;Step 2: principal component analysis and normalization are carried out to data;Step 3: learning vector quantization Neural Network Training Parameter is configured;Step 4: hidden layer network node is chosen;Step 5: establishing neural network model using software;Step 6: the neural network of foundation is trained;Step 7: neural network accuracy of the location estimate.Prediction result precision of the present invention is high, and structure is simple, can effectively prevent the generation of coal mine roof plate water inrush accident, is suitable for promoting and applying.

Description

A kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of mine safety, in particular to a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique.
Background technique
With the continuous improvement of coal resources in China exploitation rate, exploits difficulty and continue to increase, mining environment is increasingly disliked Bad, mine safety accident especially coal mine roof plate pressure rack, water inrush accident occur repeatedly, thus cause a large amount of casualties with And property loss.According to statistics, between nearly 30 years, more than 1600 coal mine water inrush accidents are had occurred in China altogether, and in addition there are also a large amount of mines It is faced with the threat of roof gushing water.Coal mine roof plate gushing water is that water producing fractures existing for roof overlying rock are communicated to When artesian aquifer, water body is flowed into drive by crack, causes water inrush accident.For the generation for preventing water inrush accident, containing When being exploited under water layer, need to reserve certain thickness waterproof coal petrography to ensure safety.But as coal seam upper extraction limit is continuous It improves, water inrush accident constantly occurs.
The generation of coal mine roof plate water inrush accident in order to prevent needs to design a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes pre- now Survey method.Neural network is that a kind of application is similar to the structure of cerebral nerve Synaptic junction and carries out the mathematical model of information processing, It is with very strong nonlinear fitting ability.Learning rules are simple, are easy to implement, thus are widely used.But it is to input number According to there is higher requirement, if input vector is too many, data redundancy will cause, network structure is excessively complicated, influences its instruction instead Practice precision.
Summary of the invention
To solve the shortcomings of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique, Specifically a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique based on PCA-LVQ neural network.
The technical solution of the present invention is as follows:
A kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique, the method are based on PCA-LVQ neural network, specifically include Following steps:
Step 1: collecting coalfield related data, including effective thickness, water-bearing layer load transmission coefficient, specific capacity, have Effect protects thickness, fractal dimension and main key stratum to 6 influence factors of distance in coal seam and corresponding gushing water danger classes.
Step 2: the data of collection being handled, including principal component analysis (PCA) and normalization, utilize principal component point Analysis calculates the contribution margin of 6 influence factors and accumulation contribution rate is taken to be greater than 85% data, reduces redundancy, realizes dimensionality reduction.Meanwhile Data after dimensionality reduction are normalized so that because caused by data unit is different error it is minimum, accelerate network convergence and speed.
Step 3: network training parameter setting, occurrence are as follows: error of fitting target value is 0.01, frequency of training 200.
Step 4: intermediate node is chosen, and filters out hidden layer neurode value range using formula, then utilizes beta pruning method The training data mean square error and prediction data accuracy of different hidden nodes are calculated, finally determines number of nodes.
Step 5: neural network, the related data determined by the dimension and step 3 of inputoutput data and 4, Neural network model is set up using MATLAB software.
Step 6: the neural network set up using training data training is found optimal weight and threshold value, established Optimal neural network.
Step 7: utilizing trained neural network, prediction data is predicted, its precision of prediction is examined.
Further, the specific method is as follows for step 2:
Step is 1.: constructing normalized matrix X using initial data;
In formula, n representative sample number, xijJ-th of parameter of as i-th of sample
Step is 2.: the correlation matrix of normalized matrix
Related coefficient calculation formula is as follows:
In formula: rkjFor variable xkAnd xjBetween related coefficient,It is the average value of the i variable,It is j-th of variable Average value, n is sample size;
Step is 3.: the characteristic equation for calculating correlation matrix R obtains characteristic value and feature vector;
Step is 3.: calculating its contribution rate τ using following formulaiWith contribution rate of accumulative total η:
In formula: λ is matrix exgenvalue
Wherein, principal component number is chosen by calculating the contribution rate of accumulative total of principal component, wherein contribution rate is for indicating comprehensive Close the ability that variable explains original variable;Contribution rate of accumulative total is bigger to illustrate that data information loss is smaller;
Step is 3.: data band being become owner of and calculates principal component specific value in ingredient expression formula, obtains new input data;
Step is 6.: the data after principal component analysis being normalized, make its data in (0,1) range.
Further, the specific method is as follows for step 4:
Step is 1.: by inputoutput data dimension, determining input layer number and output layer number of nodes;
Step is 2.: utilizing empirical equationHidden neuron node value range is determined, Wherein, n --- input layer number;M --- output layer number of nodes, a --- 1 to 10 arbitrary numbers;
Step is 3.: using beta pruning method, calculates training data mean square error and the forecast set error of different hidden layers successively to select Fixed optimal the number of hidden nodes;
Further, the specific method is as follows for step 5:
Step is 1.: netinit initializes connection weight ω and learning rate between each layer;
Step is 2.: setting up neural network using MATLAB software, target type is constructed adaptation nerve using function The output matrix of network output mode, network error of fitting target value are 0.01, and frequency of training 200, learning rate is using silent Recognize value 0.01.
Further, the specific method is as follows for step 6:
Step is 1.: the input data after principal component analysis is input to input layer;
Step is 2.: calculating hidden layer weight and input vector X=[x according to the following formula1,x2,x3,…,xQ]TBetween away from From:
In formula, wijThe weight between input neuron i and intrerneuron j;Q is input vector dimension;
Step is 3.: selection and input vector are apart from the smallest two hidden neurons i, j;
Step is 4.: calculate whether neuron i and neuron j meets following two condition:
1. the corresponding Type-Inconsistencies of hidden neuron i and j;
2. the distance d of hidden neuron i and j and current input modeiAnd djMeet following formula:
P: the window width for the midplane that input vector may be dropped into, usually 2/3 or so, then:
1. if the corresponding classification C of neuron iiClassification C corresponding with input vectorxUnanimously, i.e. Ci=Cx, then neuron i and The weight of neuron j is modified as follows:
wi_new=wi_old+α(x-wi_old)
In formula, α is learning efficiency;wi_oldFor the weight for adjusting preceding connection neuron i and neuron j;
2. if the corresponding classification C of neuron jjClassification C corresponding with input vectorxUnanimously, i.e. Cj=Cx, then neuron i and The weight of neuron j is modified as follows:
wi_new=wi_old-α(x-wi_old)
Step is 5.: if hidden neuron i and j are unable to reach requirement, the connection weight of hidden layer related Neurons is updated, Update mode is as the step 4 in LVQ algorithm.
Further, its weight of step 6 and adjusting thresholds are as follows:
Wherein, p is the input pattern of R dimension, S1It is 4, IW for hidden neuron number1,1Between input layer and hidden layer Connection weight matrix, n1For the input of hidden neuron, a1For the output of hidden neuron, LW2,1Between hidden layer and output layer Connection weight matrix, n2For the input of output layer neuron, a2For the output of output layer neuron.
Further, in step 7: the forecast sample of identical dimensional is input to the input layer of trained neural network, Output result after neural network computing is compared with actual result, calculates its accuracy.
The beneficial effects obtained by the present invention are as follows are as follows:
The present invention is based on the coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction techniques of PCA-LVQ neural network, can effectively subtract The excessive problem of few input vector, so that network structure is simpler, accuracy is higher, is conducive to improve coal mine by this method The accuracy and speed of roof water inrush danger classes prediction, structure is simple, can effectively prevent the hair of coal mine roof plate water inrush accident It is raw.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is LVQ network mode figure;
Fig. 2 (a) is training data mean square error figure;
Fig. 2 (b) is prediction data accuracy figure;
Fig. 3 (a) LVQ neural metwork training result figure;
Fig. 3 (b) PCA-LVQ neural metwork training result figure;
The analysis of Fig. 4 (a) Fisher prediction result;
Fig. 4 (b) LVQ neural network prediction;
Fig. 4 (c) PCA-LVQ neural network prediction.
Specific embodiment
For convenient for it will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention, illustrates specific embodiment party of the invention with reference to the accompanying drawing Formula.
A kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique based on PCA-LVQ neural network of the invention.Coal mine top One of an important factor for plate gushing water is threat safety of coal mines.In order to quickly and accurately identify coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes, mention A kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique based on PCA-LVQ neural network is gone out.By consulting relevant data, Find out relevant data, including effective thickness, specific capacity, water-bearing layer load transmission coefficient, effective protection thickness, FRACTAL DIMENSION Value and main key stratum carry out dimensionality reduction to data by principal component analysis (PCA), and use learning vector quantization to the distance in coal seam (LVQ) neural network predicts its danger classes.Simulation results show proposition based on PCA-LVQ neural network Coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique to be compared to other diagnostic method accuracys higher.
The present invention has collected 52 groups of coal mine data altogether, and every group of data include 6 groups of variables, therefrom extracts 10 groups of data and carries out in advance It surveys, remainder data is trained network.
The PCA-LVQ neural network model of proposition and other two kinds of prediction models (Fisher and LVQ) results are carried out pair Than comparison result is as shown in table 1.
1 prediction result of table compares
It is higher and can reach to can be seen that the more existing two methods accuracy rate of method of the invention from the data in table 1 100% accuracy rate.
Table 2 is the characteristic value and contribution rate after principal component analysis.
2 characteristic value of table and its contribution rate
As shown in table 2, the present invention chooses the part that accumulation characteristic value is greater than 85%, therefore chooses first four as network Input parameter.
Fig. 1 is neural network structure figure, and as shown in Figure 1, this neural network is by three layers of input layer, hidden layer and output layer mind It is formed through member.Neuron between input layer and hidden layer is connected with each other, according to training data prediction in network training process The weight connected between two layers is modified in accuracy.One group of connection of each output layer neuron and hidden neuron, connection Weight is fixed value 1, and training mode is when input is sent to network, and the hidden neuron nearest from input pattern is swashed Hair, i.e., excited neuron, playing output valve is 1, and other hidden neuron output valves are 0.It is connected with group where excitor nerve member The output layer neuron output valve connect is 1, and other output layer neuron output valves are " 0 ", therefore can be identified current defeated Enter the classification of mode, to judge it.
Fig. 2 (a) is respectively (b) that the corresponding training data mean square error of different the number of hidden nodes and prediction data are accurate Degree, by Fig. 2 (a), (b) as can be seen that its network is at one's best when the number of hidden nodes is 10, therefore its hidden node is selected as 10。
Fig. 3 (a) is respectively (b) LVQ and PCA-LVQ network training as a result, by Fig. 3 (a), (b) it is found that LVQ nerve net Permissible accuracy is still not up to after 200 step of network training, error minimum value is 0.015873 when training 43 step, and is carried out LVQ network training after principal component analysis has reached permissible accuracy when 164 step.
Fig. 4 (a) is respectively (c) (b) that Fisher analysis and LVQ and PCA-LVQ neural network forecast result are obtained with actual value Compare, wherein ordinate 1 represents safety zone, and 2 represent moderate risk area, and 3 represent danger area.
The embodiments of the present invention described above are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.It is any in the present invention Spirit and principle within made modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements etc., should be included in claim protection model of the invention Within enclosing.

Claims (7)

1. a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique, which is characterized in that the method is based on PCA-LVQ nerve net Network, specifically includes the following steps:
Step 1: collecting coalfield related data, including effective thickness, water-bearing layer load transmission coefficient, specific capacity, effectively guarantor Thickness, fractal dimension and main key stratum are protected to 6 influence factors of distance in coal seam and corresponding gushing water danger classes;
Step 2: the data of collection being handled, including principal component analysis and normalization, calculate 6 using principal component analysis The contribution margin of influence factor simultaneously takes accumulation contribution rate to be greater than 85% data, reduces redundancy, realizes dimensionality reduction;Meanwhile to dimensionality reduction after Data be normalized so that because caused by data unit is different error it is minimum, accelerate network convergence and speed;
Step 3: network training parameter setting, occurrence are as follows: error of fitting target value is 0.01, frequency of training 200;
Step 4: hidden node is chosen, and filters out hidden layer neurode value range using formula, is then calculated using beta pruning method The training data mean square error and prediction data accuracy of different hidden nodes out finally determines number of nodes;
Step 5: neural network, the related data determined by the dimension and step 3 of inputoutput data and 4 utilize MATLAB software sets up neural network model;
Step 6: the neural network set up using training data training is found optimal weight and threshold value, established optimal Neural network;
Step 7: utilizing trained neural network, prediction data is predicted, its precision of prediction is examined.
2. a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the step 2 the following steps are included:
Step is 1.: constructing normalized matrix X using initial data;
In formula, n representative sample number, xijJ-th of parameter of as i-th of sample
Step is 2.: the correlation matrix of normalized matrix
Related coefficient calculation formula is as follows:
In formula: rkjFor variable xkAnd xjBetween related coefficient,It is the average value of the i variable,It is the flat of j-th of variable Mean value, n are sample size;
Step is 3.: the characteristic equation for calculating correlation matrix R obtains characteristic value and feature vector;
Step is 4.: calculating its contribution rate τ using following formulaiWith contribution rate of accumulative total η:
In formula: λ is matrix exgenvalue
Wherein, principal component number is chosen by calculating the contribution rate of accumulative total of principal component, wherein contribution rate is for indicating comprehensive change Amount explains the ability of original variable;Contribution rate of accumulative total is bigger to illustrate that data information loss is smaller;
Step is 5.: data band being become owner of and calculates principal component specific value in ingredient expression formula, obtains new input data;
Step is 6.: the data after principal component analysis being normalized, make its data in (0,1) range.
3. a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the step 4 include the following steps:
Step is 1.: by inputoutput data dimension, determining input layer number and output layer number of nodes;
Step is 2.: utilizing empirical equationHidden neuron node value range is determined;Wherein, N is input layer number;M is output layer number of nodes, and a is 1 to 10 arbitrary numbers;
Step is 3.: using beta pruning method, calculates training data mean square error and the forecast set error of different hidden layers successively to select most Excellent the number of hidden nodes.
4. a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the step 5 specifically comprise the following steps:
Step is 1.: netinit initializes connection weight ω and learning rate between each layer;
Step is 2.: setting up neural network using MATLAB software, target type is constructed adaptation neural network using function The output matrix of output mode, network error of fitting target value are 0.01, and frequency of training 200, learning rate uses default value 0.01。
5. a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the step 6 include the following steps:
Step is 1.: the input data after principal component analysis is input to input layer;
Step is 2.: calculating hidden layer weight and input vector X=[x according to the following formula1,x2,x3,…,xQ]TThe distance between:
In formula, wijThe weight between input neuron i and intrerneuron j;Q is input vector dimension;
Step is 3.: selection and input vector are apart from the smallest two hidden neurons i, j;
Step is 4.: calculate whether neuron i and neuron j meets following two condition:
1. the corresponding Type-Inconsistencies of hidden neuron i and j;
2. the distance d of hidden neuron i and j and current input modeiAnd djMeet following formula:
P: the window width for the midplane that input vector may be dropped into, usually 2/3 or so, then:
1. if the corresponding classification C of neuron iiClassification C corresponding with input vectorxUnanimously, i.e. Ci=Cx, then neuron i and nerve The weight of first j is modified as follows:
wi_new=wi_old+α(x-wi_old)
In formula, α is learning efficiency;wi_oldFor the weight for adjusting preceding connection neuron i and neuron j;
2. if the corresponding classification C of neuron jjClassification C corresponding with input vectorxUnanimously, i.e. Cj=Cx, then neuron i and nerve The weight of first j is modified as follows:
wi_new=wi_old-α(x-wi_old)
Step is 5.: if hidden neuron i and j are unable to reach requirement, updating the connection weight of hidden layer related Neurons, updates Mode is as the step 4 in LVQ algorithm.
6. a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the step 6 its weight and adjusting thresholds are as follows:
Wherein, p is the input pattern of R dimension, S1It is 4, IW for hidden neuron number1,1Connection between input layer and hidden layer Weight matrix, n1For the input of hidden neuron, a1For the output of hidden neuron, LW2,1Company between hidden layer and output layer Meet weight matrix, n2For the input of output layer neuron, a2For the output of output layer neuron.
7. a kind of coal mine roof plate gushing water danger classes prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the step In 7, the forecast sample of identical dimensional is input to the input layer of trained neural network, it is defeated after neural network computing Result is compared with actual result out, calculates its accuracy.
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Application publication date: 20191018

RJ01 Rejection of invention patent application after publication