CN110188456B - Optimized calculation method for SDG index of earthquake casualty - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an optimal calculation method of an SDG index of earthquake casualties, which comprises the following steps: obtaining the number A of fatalities in earthquake areas2(ii) a Obtaining the number A of people missing due to disaster in an earthquake area3(ii) a Calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP by adopting a weighting mode according to the population numbers in different earthquake intensity areas after the earthquake; according to the number of fatalities A2Number of people lost due to disaster A3And calculating the SDG index X by the adjusted equivalent population number AP. The calculation method provided by the invention removes the statistics of people number directly influenced by disasters, fully considers the difference of different earthquake intensities and the population density of earthquake areas, and has greater relevance between the optimized index value and the target purpose of the SDG.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of display, in particular to an optimal calculation method for an SDG index of earthquake casualties.
Background
In 2015, countries around the world passed through the 2030 sustainable development agenda and 17sustainable development targets (17 goals). The 169 specific targets contained in these 17 SDGs cover three major areas of sustainable economic, social and environmental sustainability. Measurement and monitoring of the various goals of the SDG is one of the most important links in performing SDG. Among the three SDG1/11/13, the three targets of 'elimination of poverty', 'urban and human residence' and 'coping with climate change' all use 'the number of people who die, lose and are directly affected by disasters' in every 10 ten thousand as one of specific indexes. Specifying the index in a metadata description document for the indexThe calculation method of the index is explained as follows: x ═ A2+A3+B1) GlobalPopulation 100000, wherein A2: number of fatalities due to disaster A3: number of people lost due to disaster B1: the number of people is directly influenced by disasters. The metadata document suggests statistics according to country and region, disaster event, disaster type and the like, wherein Global Population is the total Population in the statistical range according to country and region scales. The metadata particularly indicates that the index value is easily influenced by sudden and serious disastrous events to generate abnormal values, so that the method suggests that various disaster casualties need to be reported according to events aiming at the serious disastrous events.
For disastrous events such as flood, drought, fire and the like, the index value can reflect the efforts of different countries and regions in coping with climate change (SDG13), eliminating poverty caused by disaster (SDG1) and human living safety (SDG11), and further evaluate the construction condition of each country and region in the aspect of sustainable development capability. However, earthquake disasters are different from disasters such as flood, drought, fire and the like, and the occurrence of the earthquake disasters is not controlled by people and is also unrelated to climate change. The loss caused by earthquake disaster is closely related to factors such as earthquake intensity (earthquake magnitude and intensity) and population density of earthquake areas, and the loss caused by earthquake disaster cannot directly reflect the disaster coping capability of the country or area because of the sporadic nature of earthquake. In addition, dead population due to earthquake (A)2) Missing population (A)3) The error is small on the statistics of the number, but the number of people is directly influenced by disasters (B)1) Statistically, the error is larger, and2、A3there are differences of several orders of magnitude, and adding the three statistics together would mask the important assessment factor of the lost population due to disaster death, so that the index needs to be optimally adjusted.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides an optimized calculation method for an SDG index of earthquake casualties, which removes statistics on people directly affected by disasters, fully considers differences of different earthquake intensities and population densities of earthquake areas, and has a greater relevance between the optimized index value and the target purpose of the SDG.
The invention provides an optimal calculation method of an SDG index of earthquake casualties, which comprises the following steps:
obtaining the number A of fatalities in earthquake areas2；
Obtaining the number A of people missing due to disaster in an earthquake area3；
Calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP by adopting a weighting mode according to the population numbers in different earthquake intensity areas after the earthquake;
according to the number of fatalities A2Number of people lost due to disaster A3And calculating the SDG index X by the adjusted equivalent population number AP, wherein X is (A)2+A3)/AP*100000。
Optionally, calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP in a weighting manner according to the population numbers in different earthquake intensity areas after the earthquake includes:
calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP by adopting the following formula:
Optionally, a minimum seismic intensity value m is definedminThe population weight value of the corresponding earthquake region is 1, and a weighting adjustment coefficient a is calculated by adopting a normalization mode according to the relation between the death rate of each level of earthquake in history and the earthquake intensity corresponding to the death rate;
and calculating APmin (m) according to the weighting adjustment coefficient a, wherein APmin (m) is population number in the earthquake area with the earthquake intensity value of m.
Optionally, calculating the weighting adjustment coefficient a in a normalization manner according to the relationship between the historical earthquake mortality at each level and the corresponding earthquake intensity includes:
according to the relation between the death rate of earthquake at different levels and the corresponding earthquake intensity, the earthquake death rate is minimizedSeismic intensity value mminCarrying out curve fitting after the corresponding mortality is normalized to obtain a relational formula between lambda (m) and m, wherein lambda (m) is the earthquake intensity of the earthquake region population mortality of m;
let the seismic intensity be mminEarthquake region population mortality rate λ (m)min) And the seismic area weight coefficient is normalized again to obtain the weight adjustment coefficient a.
Optionally, calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP in a weighting manner according to the population numbers in different earthquake intensity areas after the earthquake, further comprises:
calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP by adopting a weighting mode according to the population number in the seismic area with the seismic intensity value of more than or equal to 6 after the earthquake, and adjusting the total population number
Optionally, according to the relation between the death rate of each level of earthquake in history and the corresponding earthquake intensity, the minimum earthquake intensity value m is usedminAfter normalization of the corresponding mortality, curve fitting is performed to obtain a relational formula between λ (m) and m, further comprising:
according to the relation between the death rate of each level of earthquake in the history and the earthquake intensity corresponding to the death rate, carrying out curve fitting after normalizing the death rate corresponding to the minimum earthquake intensity value of 6 to obtain:
λ(m)＝0.0001433*exp(1.418*m)；
and (3) renormalizing the earthquake region weight coefficient of the earthquake region population mortality rate lambda (6) with the earthquake intensity of 6 to obtain the weight adjustment coefficient a which is lambda (m)/lambda (6) which is 0.0002019 exp (1.418) m.
Optionally, calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP in a weighting manner according to the population numbers in different earthquake intensity areas after the earthquake, further comprises:
wherein m is seismic intensity value, mmaxAs the maximum seismic intensity value in the seismic region, population (m) is the number of population in the seismic region whose seismic intensity value is m.
Compared with the prior art, the optimal calculation method for the SDG index of the earthquake casualty provided by the invention at least realizes the following beneficial effects:
(1) according to the optimization calculation method provided by the invention, statistics of people directly influenced by disasters are removed, the difference of population densities of different earthquake intensities and earthquake areas is fully considered when the AP is calculated, the result is adjusted to the equivalent population number under the same earthquake intensity, the casualties of people under the same earthquake intensity can be reflected, and the relevance between the optimized index value and the target purpose of the SDG is larger.
(2) The earthquake disaster early warning system can be applied to comparison among different earthquake events of different countries, so that the earthquake disaster coping capacity of different regions of different obstructed countries under the same earthquake intensity can be reasonably evaluated, and the reasonability of the regions of different countries in the aspects of building structure design, residential area position layout, earthquake fortification intensity setting and the like, the adjacent earthquake early warning capacity, the earthquake relief efficiency after earthquake and the like can be reflected.
Of course, it is not necessary for any product in which the present invention is practiced to achieve all of the above-described technical effects simultaneously.
Other features and advantages of the present invention will become apparent from the following detailed description of exemplary embodiments thereof, which proceeds with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the invention and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an optimal calculation method of the SDG index of earthquake casualty provided by the invention.
Detailed Description
Various exemplary embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be noted that: the relative arrangement of the components and steps, the numerical expressions and numerical values set forth in these embodiments do not limit the scope of the present invention unless specifically stated otherwise.
The following description of at least one exemplary embodiment is merely illustrative in nature and is in no way intended to limit the invention, its application, or uses.
Techniques, methods, and apparatus known to those of ordinary skill in the relevant art may not be discussed in detail but are intended to be part of the specification where appropriate.
In all examples shown and discussed herein, any particular value should be construed as merely illustrative, and not limiting. Thus, other examples of the exemplary embodiments may have different values.
It should be noted that: like reference numbers and letters refer to like items in the following figures, and thus, once an item is defined in one figure, it need not be discussed further in subsequent figures.
The invention provides an optimized calculation method of an SDG index of earthquake casualties, and fig. 1 is a flow chart of the optimized calculation method of the SDG index of earthquake casualties, as shown in fig. 1, the method comprises the following steps:
step S101: obtaining the number A of fatalities in earthquake areas2；
Step S102: obtaining the number A of people missing due to disaster in an earthquake area3；
Step S103: calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP by adopting a weighting mode according to the population numbers in different earthquake intensity areas after the earthquake;
step S104: according to the number of fatalities A2Number of people lost due to disaster A3And calculating the SDG index X by the adjusted equivalent population number AP, wherein,
X＝(A2+A3) (formula 1) 100000 AP.
Further, step S103 includes: calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP by adopting the following formula:
furthermore, as the general earthquake intensity is more than 6, the casualties can be caused, the method only considers the earthquake area with the intensity value more than or equal to 6, namely correspondingly, the total number of the population after the adjustment
Then the corresponding is carried out,
optionally, step S103 further includes: defining a minimum seismic intensity value mminThe population weight value of the corresponding earthquake region is 1, and a weighting adjustment coefficient a is calculated in a normalization mode according to the relation between the death rate of each level of earthquake in history and the earthquake intensity corresponding to the death rate; wherein,
firstly, according to the relation between the death rate of each level of earthquake and the corresponding earthquake intensity of the earthquake in history, the minimum earthquake intensity value m is usedminCarrying out curve fitting after the corresponding mortality is normalized to obtain a relational formula between lambda (m) and m, wherein lambda (m) is the earthquake intensity of the earthquake region population mortality of m;
then, the seismic intensity is set to mminEarthquake region population mortality rate λ (m)min) The seismic region weight coefficient is normalized again to obtain the weight adjustment coefficient a
And calculating APmin (m) according to the weighting adjustment coefficient a, wherein APmin (m) is population in the earthquake area with the earthquake intensity value of m (formula 5), and Population (m) is population in the earthquake area with the earthquake intensity value of m. APmin (m) is equivalent to the equivalent population number under the same seismic intensity, and can reflect the size of the population casualties under the condition of the same seismic intensity.
In one embodiment, mmin＝6，Namely, the seismic region population weight value with the intensity of 6 is defined as 1 by taking the seismic intensity of 6 as a reference. Referring to the socially acceptable earthquake intensity mortality rates of different grades listed in table 1, the grade in table 1 is earthquake grade (the source in table 1 is Mayuhong, Xielili, 2001. the research on the socially acceptable earthquake personnel mortality rate in China. the natural disaster bulletin (03), 56-63). According to the fact that the death rate of each grade is exponentially related to the corresponding intensity, the death rate data with the seismic intensity of 6 are normalized and then curve fitting is carried out to obtain the lambda (m) ═ 0.0001433 × exp (1.418 × m) (formula 6), and the fitting coefficient R in the curve fitting2Is 0.975; then, the seismic-area weight coefficients of the seismic-area population mortality rate λ (6) with the seismic intensity of 6 are further normalized again, and the weight adjustment coefficient a ═ λ (m)/λ (6) ═ 0.0002019 × (1.418 × m) is obtained (formula 7).
Thus, the optimized index calculation mode is as follows:
TABLE 1 socially acceptable earthquake intensity mortality rates of varying degrees
According to the optimization calculation method provided by the invention, statistics of people directly influenced by disasters are removed, the difference of population densities of different earthquake intensities and earthquake regions is fully considered when the AP is calculated, the result is adjusted to the equivalent population number under the same earthquake intensity, the casualties of people under the condition of the same earthquake intensity can be reflected, and further the optimization calculation method is used for evaluating the earthquake disaster coping capability of each national region under the same earthquake intensity, and the rationality, the adjacent earthquake prompt reporting capability, the post-earthquake disaster relief efficiency and the like of each national region in the aspects of building structure design, residential area position layout, earthquake defense intensity setting and the like can be further reflected by the earthquake disaster coping capability.
The index optimization calculation method provided by the invention is appliedOnly the earthquake region with the intensity value more than or equal to 6, namely m, is considered during calculation for calculating the SDG index of Wenchuan earthquake casualtiesminTable 2 population numbers and equivalent population numbers of different intensity regions of the wenchuan earthquake, where the first column in table 2 is the intensity value measured by the earthquake, the second column is the weighting adjustment coefficient a corresponding to the intensity region, and the third column is the population number populition (m) in the corresponding intensity region (those skilled in the art can obtain the adjusted equivalent population number in each intensity region by stacking the wenchuan earthquake intensity distribution map and the population density distribution map in the existing data, which is not described herein again), and the fourth column is the adjusted equivalent population number in each intensity region calculated according to the formula 5. Wenchuan earthquake statistics of fatalities A269227, lost due to disaster population A317923; based on equation (8), X is calculated as 122.09.
TABLE 2 Wenchuan earthquake different intensity region population and equivalent population
Similarly, the optimization index value X of other typical earthquakes at home and abroad can be calculated as shown in Table 3. And table 3 is a comparison table before and after the SDG index optimization of typical earthquake casualties at home and abroad.
TABLE 3 SDG index pre-and post-optimization comparison table for typical earthquake casualties at home and abroad
As can be seen from table 3, the original index calculation results are not comparable between different countries due to the difference of general population of each country, and the original evaluation indexes are not significant even in the same country due to the difference of earthquake magnitude. The optimized indexes are comparable among different countries and different earthquake events. From the results in table 3, it can be seen that in several major casualty earthquake events since 2008 in china, the reed mountain earthquake is the best in mortality control, and the Yushu earthquake index value is the worst and far exceeds other earthquakes, which is closely related to the high collapse rate of the house buildings in Yushu county city. Japan is in the leading position of the world in the control of earthquake casualty rate, and can still keep a lower death rate index under the dual influence of serious earthquake and tsunami.
It should be noted that in table 3, data such as the earthquake severity values of various countries, the population numbers in the corresponding severity areas, population died due to disaster, population missing due to disaster, and the like are obtained from the existing data, the index value X before optimization is calculated by referring to the formula mentioned in the background art, and the index value X after optimization is calculated by referring to the formula 8, which is not repeated herein.
The indexes calculated by adopting the optimization calculation method provided by the invention can be applied to comparison among different earthquake events of different countries, so that the capability of dealing with earthquake disasters in different regions of different countries with the same earthquake intensity can be reasonably evaluated.
According to the embodiment, the optimal calculation method for the SDG indexes of the earthquake casualties, provided by the invention, at least has the following beneficial effects:
(1) according to the optimization calculation method provided by the invention, statistics of people directly influenced by disasters are removed, the difference of population densities of different earthquake intensities and earthquake areas is fully considered when the AP is calculated, the result is adjusted to the equivalent population number under the same earthquake intensity, the casualties of people under the same earthquake intensity can be reflected, and the relevance between the optimized index value and the target purpose of the SDG is larger.
(2) The earthquake disaster early warning system can be applied to comparison among different earthquake events of different countries, so that the earthquake disaster coping capacity of different regions of different obstructed countries under the same earthquake intensity can be reasonably evaluated, and the reasonability of the regions of different countries in the aspects of building structure design, residential area position layout, earthquake fortification intensity setting and the like, the adjacent earthquake early warning capacity, the earthquake relief efficiency after earthquake and the like can be reflected.
Although some specific embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail by way of examples, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the above examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that modifications may be made to the above embodiments without departing from the scope and spirit of the invention. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims.
Claims (4)
1. An optimal calculation method for SDG indexes of earthquake casualties is characterized by comprising the following steps:
obtaining the number A of fatalities in earthquake areas2；
Obtaining the number A of people missing due to disaster in an earthquake area3；
Calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP by adopting a weighting mode according to the population numbers in different earthquake intensity areas after the earthquake, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
defining a minimum seismic intensity value mminThe population weight value of the corresponding earthquake region is 1, and the weighting adjustment coefficient a is calculated in a normalization mode according to the relation between the earthquake mortality of each level of history and the earthquake intensity corresponding to the earthquake mortality, wherein the weighting adjustment coefficient a comprises the following steps:
according to the relation between the death rate of each level of earthquake and the corresponding earthquake intensity of the earthquake, the minimum earthquake intensity value m is usedminCarrying out curve fitting after the corresponding mortality is normalized to obtain a relational formula between lambda (m) and m, wherein lambda (m) is the earthquake intensity of the earthquake region population mortality of m;
let the seismic intensity be mminEarthquake region population mortality rate λ (m)min) Normalizing the seismic region weight coefficient again to obtain the weight adjustment coefficient a;
calculating APmin (m) according to the weighting adjustment coefficient a, wherein APmin (m) is population number in the earthquake area with the earthquake intensity value m;
calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP by adopting the following formula:
according to the number of fatalities A2Number of people lost due to disaster A3And calculating the SDG index X by the adjusted equivalent population number AP, wherein X is (A)2+A3)/AP*100000。
2. The method for optimizing an SDG index for earthquake casualty according to claim 1,
calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP by adopting a weighting mode according to the population numbers in different earthquake intensity areas after the earthquake, and further comprising the following steps:
calculating the adjusted equivalent population number AP in a weighting mode according to the population number in the seismic area with the seismic intensity value of more than or equal to 6 after the earthquake, wherein the adjusted equivalent population number
3. The method for optimizing an SDG index for earthquake casualty according to claim 2,
according to the relation between the death rate of each level of earthquake and the corresponding earthquake intensity of the earthquake, the minimum earthquake intensity value m is usedminAfter normalization of the corresponding mortality, curve fitting is performed to obtain a relational formula between λ (m) and m, further comprising:
according to the relation between the death rate of each level of earthquake in the history and the earthquake intensity corresponding to the death rate, carrying out curve fitting after normalizing the death rate corresponding to the minimum earthquake intensity value of 6 to obtain:
λ(m)＝0.0001433*exp(1.418*m)；
and (3) renormalizing the earthquake region weight coefficient of the earthquake region population mortality rate lambda (6) with the earthquake intensity of 6 to obtain the weight adjustment coefficient a which is lambda (m)/lambda (6) which is 0.0002019 exp (1.418) m.
4. The method for optimizing an SDG index for earthquake casualty according to claim 1,
adopting a weighting method according to the number of people in different earthquake intensity areas after the earthquakeThe adjusted equivalent population AP is further calculated by:
wherein m is seismic intensity value, mmaxAs the maximum seismic intensity value in the seismic region, population (m) is the number of population in the seismic region with the seismic intensity value m.
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