CN108960481A - Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method and computer-readable medium - Google Patents
Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method and computer-readable medium Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN108960481A CN108960481A CN201810497063.0A CN201810497063A CN108960481A CN 108960481 A CN108960481 A CN 108960481A CN 201810497063 A CN201810497063 A CN 201810497063A CN 108960481 A CN108960481 A CN 108960481A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- earthquake
- population
- deaths
- magnitude
- disaster
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
- 230000034994 death Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 73
- 231100000517 death Toxicity 0.000 title claims abstract description 73
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 66
- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 21
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 8
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims description 10
- 230000035939 shock Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000003860 storage Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000002889 sympathetic effect Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000000875 corresponding effect Effects 0.000 description 10
- 230000000116 mitigating effect Effects 0.000 description 7
- 238000007726 management method Methods 0.000 description 6
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 description 4
- 230000006378 damage Effects 0.000 description 4
- 230000004224 protection Effects 0.000 description 4
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 4
- 241001269238 Data Species 0.000 description 2
- 208000027418 Wounds and injury Diseases 0.000 description 2
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000002596 correlated effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 208000014674 injury Diseases 0.000 description 2
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 description 2
- 101710163391 ADP-ribosyl cyclase/cyclic ADP-ribose hydrolase Proteins 0.000 description 1
- 241001161843 Chandra Species 0.000 description 1
- 235000001167 Melaleuca cajuputi Nutrition 0.000 description 1
- 244000304222 Melaleuca cajuputi Species 0.000 description 1
- 101100434216 Physarum polycephalum ARDC gene Proteins 0.000 description 1
- 230000002159 abnormal effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009471 action Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000009435 building construction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012512 characterization method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000013461 design Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000004744 fabric Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000000977 initiatory effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000007246 mechanism Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 210000000056 organ Anatomy 0.000 description 1
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000000611 regression analysis Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004044 response Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010561 standard procedure Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000003696 structure analysis method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012549 training Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012795 verification Methods 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/10—Services
- G06Q50/26—Government or public services
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Educational Administration (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model building method.This method includes obtaining multiple historical earthquake data, which includes magnitude, earthquake epicenter, earthquake time and Casualties Caused By Earthquakes number；According to magnitude and earthquake epicenter, the secondary earthquake zone of influence is determined；By the population distribution data of the secondary earthquake zone of influence, the secondary earthquake zone of influence total population is determined；According to the secondary earthquake number of casualties and the secondary earthquake zone of influence total population, the secondary earthquake population casualty rate is obtained；The earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model characterized with magnitude is established according to the magnitude of historical earthquake and corresponding earthquake population casualty rate.The range and injures and deaths population of the earthquake disaster zone of influence can quickly be calculated in the first time for obtaining magnitude using the model, by the rapid evaluation to casualties after earthquake disaster, provide foundation to carry out corresponding rescue measure.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to seismic data processing technology fields.More particularly, to a kind of Casualties Caused By Earthquakes population estimation method
And the computer-readable medium for realizing this method can be performed.
Background technique
Earthquake disaster is the most natural calamity of the number of causing death.The casualty rate of earthquake population refers to as caused by earthquake
It can influence the situation of crowd's aggrieved possibility and extent of injury.Sustainable growth and large-scale cities and towns with population in the world
Change, earthquake will will increase the threat of human life's safety.The technical level of the mankind is also not enough to the earthquake that forecasts with unerring accuracy, still
Casualties situation can be quickly estimated after earthquake, and rescue strength is rationally disposed according to estimation results, carries out effectively rescue.
A kind of known evaluation method thinks, although being affected by various factors, casualties caused by earthquake disaster
Quantity should be positively correlated with earthquake magnitude.Known another kind evaluation method thinks that earthquake intensity is that measurement earthquake is direct to building
The index of extent of the destruction, the population degrees of exposure defined according to earthquake intensity (are exposed to specific intensity area, such as VI degree or more
The population in area) influence to earthquake toll is greater than influence of the magnitude to death toll, so single shake
Grade is unreasonable as regression parameter.
The mechanism quickly estimated using earthquake intensity progress earthquake disaster population injures and deaths is also more, such as: United States Geological tune
Look into PAGER (the Prompt Assessment of Global of office (the US Geological Survey, USGS)
Earthquakes for Response) system, Joint Research Centre of EU Committee (European Commission ' s
Joint Research Centre) and the United Nations's humanitarianism transaction coordination office (the United Nations
Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, OCHA) develop jointly GDACS system
(Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System), the graduate Extremum system of Russian science
System.By taking PAGER system as an example, earthquake intensity distribution map (ShakeMap) is drawn according to ground motion attenuation laws first, then root
The death rate in different intensity areas is calculated from the quantitative relationship of earthquake intensity according to casualty rate, it is finally real with Oak Ridge national (area)
The Landscan demographic data superposition for testing room (Oak-Ridge National Laboratory) obtains estimated death toll.Its
In, the two-parameter normal distyribution function of earthquake intensity-casualty rate is by the recurrence to 1973 to 2007 years global earthquakes disaster datas point
Analyse (Allen the et al., 2009a established；Allen et al.,2009b；Jaiswal and Wald,2010；Jaiswal
et al.,2011).GDACS system simulates INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION using the ShakeMap of USGS, determines T type according to mortality curve
Building at earthquake intensity I damaged condition be D probability, calculate building collapsing caused by the death rate, be superimposed with demographic data
Death toll (Groeve et al., 2008) out.Extremum system and GDACS system principle are essentially identical, i.e., according to earthquake
Dynamic attenuation law simulation earthquake intensity distribution, determines the extent of damage of different kinds of building object in different intensity areas, obtains estimated
Death toll (Frolova et al., 2016；Trendafiloski et al.,2011).
Asia is global seismicity, especially one of most active area of shallow-focus earthquake.US Geological Survey lists
1900-2016 maximum 20 secondary earthquake in the whole world have 11 times and occur in Asia.The Asia density of population is big, and is mostly to develop China
Family (area), capacity to combat natural adversities is poor, and casualties caused by earthquake is very heavy.
According to disaster pestology research center (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of
Disasters, CRED) urgent Disaster Data library (Emergency Events Database, EM-DAT), 1990-2012
578 earthquakes influential on the mankind have occurred in Nian Jian, the whole world altogether, wherein Asia has occurred 356 times, accounts for global sum
62%, CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey and Japan 5 states most for generation earthquake number in the world
Family (area).Between 23 years, earthquake causes global 74.3 ten thousand people dead altogether, and 162.3 ten thousand people are injured, the wherein death and injury in Asia
Number is respectively 50.6 ten thousand and 1,240,000.No matter from the point of view of earthquake frequency or death toll and number of injured people, Asia is all
It is disaster-stricken continent the most serious.
But aforementioned three International Seismics disaster casualty assessment system, it is not specific to Asian countries (area) and opens
Hair, meanwhile, above-mentioned assessment system needs to simulate earthquake intensity distribution according to ground motion attenuation laws, and simulates earthquake intensity and reality
Bigger difference is had between earthquake intensity, therefore above system is not high to the casualties assessment result precision of Asia earthquake.
Publication No. CN107679774, entitled " a kind of appraisal procedure and dress of antidetonation prevention and disaster relief ability
Set " Chinese patent application, disclose it is a kind of utilize historical earthquake data, the population of seismic energy, earthquake generation area is close
Degree is used as explanatory variable, constructs injures and deaths degree prediction model, and predict mould to the injures and deaths degree using the seismic data obtained
Type is trained, and passes through the injures and deaths journey after training the data input in the seismic data of specified earthquake as explanatory variable
The injures and deaths number spending prediction model, and being obtained based on model to the antidetonation prevention of the specified earthquake corresponding region and disaster relief ability into
The method of row assessment.The density of population of earthquake generation area in this method is the administrative ground by obtaining the region that principal earthquake occurs
What reason range and All population capacities were calculated, because the generation of earthquake and the distribution of earthquake intensity be not by the limit of district geographic regions
System, this calculation method equally exist the not high problem of precision.
Therefore, it is necessary to construct, one kind is quick, relatively accurately carries out seismic casualties evaluation method.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model building methods, this method comprises:
Multiple historical earthquake data are obtained, which includes magnitude, earthquake epicenter, earthquake time and ground
Shake the number of casualties；
According to magnitude and earthquake epicenter, the secondary earthquake zone of influence is determined；
By the population distribution data of the secondary earthquake zone of influence, the secondary earthquake zone of influence total population is determined；
According to the secondary earthquake number of casualties and the secondary earthquake zone of influence total population, the secondary earthquake population casualty rate is obtained；
It is characterized according to the magnitude of historical earthquake and the foundation of obtained sympathetic earthquakes population casualty rate with magnitude
Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model.
Preferably, this method further comprises earthquake vibration influence radius being determined according to magnitude, by the seismic shock
The radius of influence and earthquake epicenter determine the secondary earthquake zone of influence.
Preferably, according to magnitude and following formula, earthquake vibration influence radius R is determined:
As M≤6.2, R=75km；
As M=6.3-6.7, R=125km；
As M=6.8-7.2, R=150km；
As M=7.3-7.7, R=175km；
As M >=7.8, R=200km.
Preferably, this method further comprises obtaining regional population's distributed data, and time selection occurs according to earthquake and corresponds to
The population distribution data in time obtain the earthquake effect area total population of the secondary earthquake zone of influence using space statistical analysis.
Another invention according to the present invention provides a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method, this method comprises:
Magnitude is obtained,
The secondary earthquake population injures and deaths are calculated using the earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model that method as described above constructs
Rate.
In accordance with a further aspect of the present invention, a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation side applied to Asia is provided
Method, this method comprises:
Obtain magnitude；
The secondary earthquake casualty rate range is calculated using following earthquake disaster population estimation models:
Y0=a0xb0, a0=-56.64~-17.46；B0=-1.814~-0.619,
Wherein, x is Richter scale magnitude, and y is casualty rate denary logarithm value.
According to another aspect of the invention, a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation side applied to Asia is provided
Method, this method comprises:
Obtain magnitude；
The secondary earthquake casualty rate range is calculated using following earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation methods:
The upper limit: y=-56.64x-1.814
Lower limit: y=-17.46x-0.619
Wherein, x is Richter scale magnitude, and y is casualty rate denary logarithm value.
According to another aspect of the invention, a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation side applied to Asia is provided
Method, this method comprises:
Obtain magnitude；
The country in which it is located or area occurs for earthquake, selects the earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation mould of corresponding country
Type estimates the secondary earthquake casualty rate range:
Wherein, x is Richter scale magnitude, and y is casualty rate denary logarithm value.
According to another aspect of the invention, a kind of earthquake disaster population estimation method applied to Asia is provided, it should
Method includes:
Obtain magnitude；
The country in which it is located or area occurs for earthquake, selects the earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation mould of corresponding country
Type calculates the secondary earthquake casualty rate range:
Wherein, x is Richter scale magnitude, and y is casualty rate denary logarithm value.
According to another aspect of the invention, a kind of computer-readable medium is provided, wherein the computer-readable medium storage
There are one or more programs, when being executed by processor, realizes the earthquake disaster injures and deaths for being applied to Asia as described above
Population estimation method.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:
Asia is one of most active area of global seismicity, 1990-2012, and earthquake causes the whole world 74.3 ten thousand altogether
People is dead, and 162.3 ten thousand people are injured, and wherein 50.6 ten thousand people of Asian countries is dead, and 1,240,000 people are injured.
The present invention is based on the Casualties Caused By Earthquakes of -2012 years (area) nineteen nineties of Asian countries as a result, constructing the main state in Asia
Earthquake magnitude-Casualties Caused By Earthquakes earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method of family (area).
Technical solution of the present invention constructs the earthquake characterized with magnitude by the analysis to historical earthquake data
Disaster injures and deaths population estimation method.Earthquake can quickly be calculated in the first time for obtaining magnitude using the model
The range data of disaster injures and deaths population provides foundation to carry out corresponding rescue measure.
Technical solution of the present invention, it is contemplated that the country (area) of different economic levels, magnitude is identical but casualty rate
Different situations, the earthquake disaster injures and deaths population for having obtained being suitable for different economic levels national (area) quickly estimate model,
It is estimated to provide more accurate Casualties Caused By Earthquakes rate and the number of casualties to different Asian countries (area).
Detailed description of the invention
Specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawing；
Fig. 1 shows earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation schematic diagram of construction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 shows the flow charts of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation construction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 shows 5.0 grades of countries in Asia or more earthquake number distribution map in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 4 shows Asian countries (area) population distribution figure in 2016 in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 5 A-5F shows all kinds of Asian countries (area) seismic casualties rate curve of example 1 according to the present invention.
Fig. 6 shows each minimum injures and deaths threshold curve in Fig. 5 A-5F.
Fig. 7 shows Asian countries (area) seismic casualties threshold curve of present example 2.
Specific embodiment
In order to illustrate more clearly of the present invention, the present invention is done further below with reference to preferred embodiments and drawings
It is bright.Similar component is indicated in attached drawing with identical appended drawing reference.It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that institute is specific below
The content of description is illustrative and be not restrictive, and should not be limited the scope of the invention with this.
In the following, basis will be described by taking the seismic data and casualty figure of -2012 years (area) nineteen nineties of Asian countries as an example
Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method construction method of the invention, and specifically describe the shake of building Asia major country (area)
The method of grade-Casualties Caused By Earthquakes population estimation method, to for various countries national (area) after earthquake disaster casualty it is fast
Speed assessment provides foundation to carry out corresponding rescue measure.
Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method according to the present invention building side is illustrated below in conjunction with Fig. 1 and Fig. 2
The flow chart of method.
Step S210 obtains multiple historical earthquake data, the historical earthquake data include magnitude, earthquake epicenter,
Shake time and Casualties Caused By Earthquakes number.
The acquisition of historical earthquake data
In the present invention, corresponding seismic data is collected using three key data sources, construct " Asian countries (area)
Shake disaster database ".First data source is the urgent Disaster Data library EM-DAT of disaster pestology research center publication
(http://www.emdat.be/), EM-DAT database have provided 22,000 calamity since 1900 in global range
Harmful core data is one of free disaster data resource mostly important in the world, is studied in international mitigation and contingency management
Boundary has a wide range of applications.The including standard of disaster data has following four: 1) disaster at least causes 10 people dead；2) disaster is extremely
Cause 100 people disaster-stricken less；3) it declares a state of emergency；4) international support is requested, the disaster of the above standard is at least met
It can just be included.The present invention compiles the Asia 1990-2012 earthquake disaster event from EM-DAT database, according to earthquake disaster
Disaster Event is proofreaded and excluded to repeat to the time of evil generation, place, and the data obtained record totally 356, each earthquake record is all
There are the information such as detailed time, country (area), location expression, earthquake magnitude, death toll, number of injured people.
Second data source is Asia mitigation center (Asian Disaster Reduction Center, ADRC；
Http:// www.adrc.asia/) disaster archives and GLIDE database
(http://www.glidenumber.net/).Disaster archives provide information mainly have: disaster, the time,
Place, Disaster Losses and news report related with this disaster link.GLIDE database is by Asia mitigation center and connection
Close what state's humanitarianism transaction coordination office built jointly, in GLIDE database, each disaster record has an only nothing
Two and the unified number of coding mode, disaster record includes that disaster number, disaster, country (area), the condition of a disaster are commented on, with ground
It include specific time, location expression, earthquake magnitude, death toll and number of injured people in the condition of a disaster comment for earthquake calamity evil.
Third data source is report related with Asia earthquake on Google Earth and network, in Google Earth
" location expression " field of upper search earthquake record, completion earthquake centre latitude and longitude information, individual age closer earthquake records pass through
Web search obtains earthquake centre longitude and latitude.
The present invention constructs " Asian countries (area) earthquake disaster database " according to above-mentioned data, wherein with EM-DAT number
Based on library, the number of injured people statistics of 2013-2016 earthquake disaster record is using Asia mitigation center and GLIDE database
Record is supplemented.To guarantee the true and reliable of record, the Asia earthquake of the 2013-2016 of two information sources compared first
Record, then having filtered out 57 has the complete time, country (area), location expression, earthquake magnitude, death toll, is hurted sb.'s feelings
The record of number information, also according to " location expression ", using Google Earth search and web search completion earthquake centre longitude and latitude
Information.The earthquake record collected is combined, " Asian countries (area) earthquake disaster database " is established.
" Asian countries (area) the earthquake disaster database " that the present invention constructs shares 26 countries of -2016 years nineteen nineties
The earthquake in (area), totally 413 secondary earthquakes record, and field is respectively " time ", " earthquake country (area) full name ", " earthquake country
(area) ISO designation ", " earthquake centre longitude ", " earthquake centre latitude ", " earthquake magnitude ", " death toll ", " number of injured people ", " number of casualties
(the sum of death toll and number of injured people) ".In the present invention, the earthquake record for establishing and verifying need to meet following two marks
Quasi-: 1) more than or equal to 5.0 grades, 2) number of casualties is greater than 10 people for earthquake.Screened, meet condition 1) earthquake record share 349
Item covers the earthquake of 22 countries (area) of 1990-2016；Meet condition 1 simultaneously) and condition 2) earthquake record be total to
271, cover the earthquake of 21 countries (area) of 1990-2016.
Meet above-mentioned condition 1) statistical result as shown in figure 3, between 1990-2016, CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, India Ni Xi
Sub-, Iran, Turkey and Japan are 5 most countries (area) of earthquake frequency, and the number of casualties is respectively 57.7 ten thousand,
34.0 ten thousand, 21.5 ten thousand, 8.0 ten thousand and 7.8 ten thousand.It is more by earthquake effect number, wherein CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, Indonesia, day
This reaches hundred million people, respectively may be about 2.36 hundred million, 2.29 hundred million, 1.56 hundred million people, further illustrates that Asia is influenced ten by earthquake disaster
Divide serious.
Step S220 determines the secondary earthquake zone of influence according to magnitude and earthquake epicenter.
In the case where known magnitude and earthquake epicenter, earthquake vibration influence radius can be determined according to magnitude,
The earthquake zone of influence is determined by the seismic shock radius of influence and earthquake epicenter.
Earthquake effect area refers to the region that earthquake causes casualties, usually earthquake intensity be VI degree or more region.Example
If Howell and Schultz et al. is derived earthquake intensity with the attenuation relation of epicentral distance from seismology angle, it is strong to propose earthquake
Spend elliptical decay model.Anderson and Chandra analyzes the isoseismal line data of Western America respectively, has been fitted and has been based on
The Attenuation Relation of Seismic Intensity formula of elliptical decay model.According to elliptical decay model, earthquake intensity and earthquake magnitude are positively correlated, with earthquake centre
Away from negative correlation.For one earthquake, the region that usually only earthquake intensity is VI degree or more just has casualties, when earthquake is a certain
When earthquake intensity in the radius of influence is VI degree or more, that is, the radius of influence can be used to simplify earthquake INTENSITY DISTRIBUTION.Peduzzi etc.
People records done research to the strong motion of different epicentral distances, it is determined that the vibration influence radius R of different magnitude M earthquakes:
As M≤6.2, R=75km；
As M=6.3-6.7, R=125km；
As M=6.8-7.2, R=150km；
As M=7.3-7.7, R=175km；
As M >=7.8, R=200km.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the influence area range of every secondary earthquake is calculated using above-mentioned formula.
Step S230 determines the secondary earthquake zone of influence total population by the population distribution data of the secondary earthquake zone of influence.The step
Suddenly further comprise:
Step S231 obtains regional population's data
In the present invention, demographic data derives from Columbia Univ USA, International Earth Science Studies Information Network center
(CIESIN) combine the population in the world issued with application center (SEDAC) with U.S.'s NASA socioeconomic data and be distributed grid number
According to.
Present invention employs the third editions 1990 and nineteen ninety-five population in the world to be distributed grid data (Center for
International Earth Science Information Network-CIESIN-Columbia University et
Al., 2005), spatial resolution is that 2.5 arcs divide (about 5km nearby under the line), fourth edition 2000,2005,2010,2015
Population in the world is distributed grid data and the year two thousand twenty prediction data (Center for International Earth Science
Information Network-CIESIN-Columbia University, 2016), spatial resolution is 30 second of arcs (red
Road is nearby about 1km).In the data of two versions, the attribute value of each grid is the people lived in the net region
Mouth sum.
According to earthquake occurs for step S232 the time, selects the population distribution data in corresponding time.
Since annual population changes, in the present embodiment, population growth rate is calculated according to the data in existing time, then
1990-2016 each year population distribution situation is calculated to obtain by each annual rate of population increase.Such as Asian countries in 2016 shown in Fig. 4
(area) population distribution is according to Asian countries (area) population distribution grid datas in 2015 and the year two thousand twenty prediction data interpolation
It is calculated.
Step S233, the earthquake effect area determined according to certain secondary earthquake and the earthquake time population distribution data, calculating should
Secondary earthquake zone of influence total population.
In the present embodiment, earthquake effect area total number of people is obtained using the space statistical analysis function of GIS software.
Step S240 obtains the secondary earthquake population according to the secondary earthquake number of casualties and the secondary earthquake zone of influence total population
Casualty rate.
In the present invention, injures and deaths population size is measured using population casualty rate D, i.e., injures and deaths population accounts in the secondary earthquake
The ratio of earthquake effect area population, is shown below.
In formula, Killed is death toll caused by earthquake, and Injured is number of injured people caused by earthquake, Physical
Exposure is the secondary earthquake earthquake effect area total number of people.Determine that earthquake zone of influence total number of persons is used for using method of the invention
Appraising model is constructed, the estimation accuracy of constructed model is effectively improved.
Step S250 is established according to the magnitude of historical earthquake data and obtained earthquake population casualty rate with Earthquake
The earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method of grade characterization.
This example constructs all kinds of national (using maximum, minimum, intermediate value magnitude casualty rate threshold curve method
Area) earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method.Firstly, the logarithm box-shaped figure of statistics 0.5 earthquake magnitude range of production, box-shaped figure is under
Limit, lower quartile, intermediate value, upper quartile, 5 part of upper limit composition.Upper quartile and the difference of lower quartile are four points
Digit spacing, the upper limit are that upper quartile adds 1.5 times of interquartile ranges, and lower limit is that lower quartile subtracts 1.5 times four points
Digit spacing.
The point other than bound, i.e. point other than box-shaped figure solid line are fallen in, is considered as abnormal point, i.e., the secondary earthquake is due to some
Cause specific, the rate that causes casualties is too high or too low, in curve matching, does not consider.Occurred on April 14th, 2010
For the earthquake of Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Yushu of Qinghai Province, total casualties caused by the secondary earthquake are 14968 people, due to cajaput
Locate the Hinterland of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in Qinghai Province southwest, the density of population is smaller, and the population in earthquake effect area is only 37.9 ten thousand people, so
The population casualty rate of this secondary earthquake is up to 3.95%, significantly larger than other earthquakes of CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, therefore big establishing China
The secondary earthquake is eliminated when land area seismic casualties evaluation method.
Example 1
The number of casualties caused by earthquake disaster, it is not only related with earthquake intensity, the density of population, also with the shock resistance of building
Can be related, and the anti-seismic performance of building and local economic level are closely related.Therefore, the building of casualty rate model is also wanted
Consider economic influence.The Asian countries (area) that 15 earthquakes are multiple of present example 1 is divided into 6 groups according to GDP per capita,
Respectively I-VI, population, economic conditions, is shown in Table 2.
The basic condition and classification of 2 Asia earthquake-prone countries (area) of table
By above-mentioned classification, using horizontal axis as magnitude, the longitudinal axis is the logarithm of earthquake population casualty rate, by 6 class I class-VI classes
It is respectively Fig. 5 A-5F that the data of country's each secondary earthquake of (area) 1990-2012, which are drawn,.Lines are corresponding national (area) in figure
Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation curve, curvilinear equation is as shown in table 3.
Table 3 Asia Countries (area) earthquake magnitude-casualty rate equation
X is Richter scale in table, y be with 10 be bottom casualty rate logarithm, it is assumed that examine 95% confidence interval, R2 is mould
The type goodness of fit, P-value are significance value)
Model verifying
During if the practical number of casualties is located at the maximum of modeling, minimum range of fatalities, then it is assumed that modeling
As a result correct.
In order to verify the validity of above-mentioned casualty rate model, the embodiment of the present invention uses 31 secondary earthquakes of 2013-2016
True casualty figure is compared with model result, and the results are shown in Table 4, and correct at totally 22, remaining 9 error is larger.It can
To find out, the Asia seismic casualties rate model constructed according to the present invention can be used for these national (areas) after earthquake disaster
The rapid evaluation of casualties provides foundation to carry out corresponding rescue measure.
Further, 9 earthquakes biggish to error, the big of its evaluated error is measured using estimated bias Deviation
It is small:
In formula, metv (minimum estimate threshold value) is to estimate the minimum number of casualties, av
(actual value) is the practical number of casualties.
As can be seen from Table 4, deviation is mostly positive value, this illustrates that the minimum number of casualties of model estimation is still bigger than normal.Only
Have 1 secondary earthquake deviation be negative value, on July 2nd, 2013 occur Indonesia northwest Sumatra Aceh province, 6.1
Grade earthquake, 1350 people of maximum result that model obtains, still less than practical 2574 people of the number of casualties.Analyze the generation of these deviations
Reason, and the precision of the density of population used in model of the present invention have much relations.Such as Iranian 7.8 grades of earthquakes, the number of casualties is only
For 114 people, this illustrates that the secondary earthquake should occur in the place of scarcity, and de facto population density may be less than this example and make
Data.It various countries can be according to oneself population distribution actual conditions, Casualties Caused By Earthquakes population estimation method structure according to the present invention
Build the model for being suitble to oneself national (area).
4 earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation curve proof list of table
The earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation curve of 6 classes national (area) is compared, as shown in Figure 6.Casualty rate by
Low to high sequence is respectively as follows: I class (Japan and Taiwan), II class (Indonesia and Philippine), Group III (China
Continental Area), IV class (states such as Afghanistan), V class (Iran), VI class (Turkey).Wherein, Group III is in 6 grades or less earthquakes,
Slightly above IV class.I class is higher than II class in 7.75 grades or more earthquakes.This may be related with the selection of earthquake sample in model.
National (area) the casualty rate highest of VI class, V class, i.e. Turkey and Iran, the existing result of study of this conclusion are consistent.
Casualty rate is minimum for I class country (area), Japan and Taiwan.It is because they are in Antiseismic building standard system
Fixed, shockproof education, earthquake pre-warning etc. are fairly perfect.After Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923, Japan has revised legal regulation, draws
Enter Aseismic Design and structure analysis method, becomes first requirement building structure in the world and calculate the country that need to consider seismic force
(area)；After nineteen ninety-five Osaka-Kobe earthquake, Japan has modified " building standard method ", improves the Seismic Fortification of building, rule
Determine the macroseism that skyscraper allows for resisting 7.0 grades or more；After the Japanese violent earthquake in east in 2011, Japan is even more to have refined building
Structural safety and building evacuation system requirements in technical regulation.The laws and measures of these protections against and mitigation of earthquake disasters are worth other Asia states
Family (area) uses for reference.In addition, national (area) injures and deaths of II class are forthright also relatively low, Indonesia and Philippine.This equally and its
A series of measure for the protections against and mitigation of earthquake disasters taken is related, and 2007, government of Indonesia put into effect " disaster management method ", by original country
(area) disaster management Coordinating Bureau (National Disaster Management Coordinating Board) upgrades to solely
Vertical country of Indonesia of government organs (area) disaster management office (Indonesian National Board for Disaster
Management,BNPB)；The same year, government of Indonesia initiated the whole nation prevent and reduce natural disasters action plan (plan be included into Indonesia country
The planning of (area) Long-and Medium-term Development), content is related to the monitoring of earthquake disaster and the configuration of early warning system, it further provides that after calamity
Fund needed for emergency relief should all be from the yearly budget of central and local government.It is pointed out that CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA
It is that Group III is national (area), although the GDP per capita of CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA is higher than II class country (area), its Casualties Caused By Earthquakes rate
Still higher, this illustrates that the building structure anti-seismic performance of CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA is not high, it should learn to I class, II class national (area)
It practises, formulates the laws and measures of some tightened up protections against and mitigation of earthquake disasters.
IV class is national (area), i.e. the states such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, and casualty rate is higher, this and they
It is backward in economy closely related, these national (areas) should learn to II class country (area), reinforce the Diseaster consciousness of the common people,
Expand disaster Volunteer.
The factor of Casualties Caused By Earthquakes number is influenced there are also very much, and the anti-seismic performance of the time, building construction that occur such as earthquake are answered
Speed, disaster area population structure, other disasters of earthquake initiation etc. are helped in first aid.The purpose that the present invention constructs model is rapid evaluation,
Therefore method of the invention does not account for these factors.
Example 2
Example 2 of the invention, with the logarithmic relationship of 1990-2012 Asian countries (area) magnitude and casualty rate work
Casualties Caused By Earthquakes population estimation mould in Asia is constructed using maximum, minimum casualty rate estimation curve approximating method for sample point
Type, the earthquake sample point obtained referring to example 1 and seismic casualties casualty rate estimation curve are as shown in fig. 7, table 5 shows basis
The magnitude of the example and the equation of seismic casualties rate estimation curve.
5 casualty rate estimation curve equation of table
Y is casualty rate denary logarithm value in formula, and x is Richter scale magnitude, and R2 is models fitting goodness.
The present invention has collected the Asia 1990-2016 earthquake disaster record by EM-DAT, ARDC and GLIDE database,
Establish " Asia earthquake disaster injures and deaths event database ".Based on spatial statistics and regression analysis, propose a kind of suitable for Asia
The seismic casualties of continent Countries (area) quickly estimate model.The model mainly considers earthquake magnitude, earthquake intensity and population point
Influence of the cloth to the earthquake number of casualties, the parameter used is few and is easy to get.Utilize 15 Asia earthquake-prone countries (area)
Earthquake disaster data (1990-2012), establish fast as the seismic casualties of core using earthquake magnitude-casualty rate threshold curve
Speed estimation model.Model is examined with the earthquake record of 2013-2016, verification result is totally preferable.Therefore, according to
Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method construction method of the invention can be used for the quick estimation of personnel's casualty situations after shake, be
Rescue provides decision-making foundation after shake.
A preferred embodiment of the present invention, provides a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method, and this method includes obtaining
The current earthquake magnitude that earthquake occurs is taken to be quickly obtained the casualties of the secondary earthquake using threshold curve equation as shown in table 5
Rate.
Another preferred embodiment of the invention, provides a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method, and this method includes
The current magnitude that earthquake occurs, the country (area) occurred according to earthquake or area are obtained, from Asia part state shown in table 3
It is determined in corresponding casualty rate threshold curve equation in family's (area) earthquake magnitude-casualty rate threshold curve equation, by magnitude band
Enter identified equation, is quickly obtained the casualties rate of the secondary earthquake.
Another preferred embodiment of the invention, provides a kind of computer-readable medium, which has
One or more programs realize that the earthquake disaster population as described above applied to Asia is estimated when being executed by processor
Calculation method.
Further, every country (area) can construct and be suitble to according to its historical earthquake data and population distribution data
The earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method of its own is established and is hurt by the geologist of core of earthquake magnitude-casualty rate threshold curve
Quickly estimation model is died, and in the first time that Future Earthquakes occur in the case where obtaining magnitude and earthquake epicenter, fastly
The speed estimation number of casualties provides decision-making foundation for rescue after shake.
Obviously, the above embodiment of the present invention be only to clearly illustrate example of the present invention, and not be pair
The restriction of embodiments of the present invention for those of ordinary skill in the art on the basis of the above description can be with
It makes other variations or changes in different ways, all embodiments can not be exhaustive here, it is all to belong to the present invention
The obvious changes or variations extended out of technical solution still in the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model building method, this method comprises:
Multiple historical earthquake data are obtained, which includes magnitude, earthquake epicenter, earthquake time and earthquake wound
Die number；
According to magnitude and earthquake epicenter, the secondary earthquake zone of influence is determined；
By the population distribution data of the secondary earthquake zone of influence, the secondary earthquake zone of influence total population is determined；
According to the secondary earthquake number of casualties and the secondary earthquake zone of influence total population, the secondary earthquake population casualty rate is obtained；
The earthquake characterized with magnitude is established according to the magnitude of historical earthquake and obtained sympathetic earthquakes population casualty rate
Disaster injures and deaths population estimation model.
2. earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model building method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that this method into
One step includes determining earthquake vibration influence radius according to magnitude, being determined by the seismic shock radius of influence and earthquake epicenter
The secondary earthquake zone of influence.
3. earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model building method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that according to earthquake
Earthquake magnitude and following formula determine earthquake vibration influence radius R:
As M≤6.2, R=75km；
As M=6.3-6.7, R=125km；
As M=6.8-7.2, R=150km；
As M=7.3-7.7, R=175km；
As M >=7.8, R=200km.
4. earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model building method according to claim 3, which is characterized in that this method into
One step includes obtaining regional population's distributed data, and the population distribution data in time selection corresponding time occur according to earthquake, utilize
Space statistical analysis obtains the earthquake effect area total population of the secondary earthquake zone of influence.
5. a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method, this method comprises:
Magnitude is obtained,
The secondary earthquake population is calculated using the earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model of method according to claim 11 building
Casualty rate.
6. a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method applied to Asia, this method comprises:
Obtain magnitude；
The secondary earthquake casualty rate range is calculated using following earthquake disaster population estimation models:
Y0=a0xb0, a0=-56.64~-17.46；B0=-1.814~-0.619,
Wherein, x is Richter scale magnitude, and y is casualty rate denary logarithm value.
7. a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method applied to Asia, this method comprises:
Obtain magnitude；
The secondary earthquake casualty rate range is calculated using following earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation methods:
The upper limit: y=-56.64x-1.814
Lower limit: y=-17.46x-0.619
Wherein, x is Richter scale magnitude, and y is casualty rate denary logarithm value.
8. a kind of earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method applied to Asia, this method comprises:
Obtain magnitude；
The country in which it is located or area occurs for earthquake, the earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model of corresponding country is selected to estimate
Calculate the secondary earthquake casualty rate range:
Wherein, x is Richter scale magnitude, and y is casualty rate denary logarithm value.
9. a kind of earthquake disaster population estimation method applied to Asia, this method comprises:
Obtain magnitude；
The country in which it is located or area occurs for earthquake, selects the earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation model meter of corresponding country
Calculate the secondary earthquake casualty rate range:
Wherein, x is Richter scale magnitude, and y is casualty rate denary logarithm value.
10. a kind of computer-readable medium, which is characterized in that the computer-readable medium storage has one or more programs,
When being executed by processor, the earthquake disaster injures and deaths people applied to Asia as described in claim 6-9 is one of any is realized
Mouth evaluation method.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810497063.0A CN108960481A (en) | 2018-05-22 | 2018-05-22 | Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method and computer-readable medium |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810497063.0A CN108960481A (en) | 2018-05-22 | 2018-05-22 | Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method and computer-readable medium |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN108960481A true CN108960481A (en) | 2018-12-07 |
Family
ID=64499768
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810497063.0A Pending CN108960481A (en) | 2018-05-22 | 2018-05-22 | Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method and computer-readable medium |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN108960481A (en) |
Cited By (12)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110070234A (en) * | 2019-04-29 | 2019-07-30 | 云南师范大学 | A kind of Earthquake-landslide personnel death quantitative forecasting technique and its application |
| CN110188456A (en) * | 2019-05-28 | 2019-08-30 | 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 | A kind of optimized calculation method of Casualties Caused By Earthquakes SDG index |
| CN110426735A (en) * | 2019-07-02 | 2019-11-08 | 武汉大学 | A kind of detection method of the earthquake disaster coverage based on social media |
| CN111784033A (en) * | 2020-06-22 | 2020-10-16 | 中国人民解放军海军军医大学 | Earthquake death number prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium |
| CN112434951A (en) * | 2020-11-25 | 2021-03-02 | 中国海洋大学 | Earthquake disaster grade assessment method and system |
| CN112767219A (en) * | 2021-02-03 | 2021-05-07 | 上海交通大学 | Post-earthquake disaster population rapid space assessment method and system based on machine learning |
| CN113434538A (en) * | 2021-06-24 | 2021-09-24 | 北京市地震局 | Earthquake intensity evaluation method and system based on population position data |
| CN113674417A (en) * | 2021-07-23 | 2021-11-19 | 大连理工大学 | Earthquake casualty gathering area assessment method based on unmanned aerial vehicle oblique photography |
| CN114187539A (en) * | 2022-02-17 | 2022-03-15 | 中国地震应急搜救中心 | Earthquake casualty assessment method based on unmanned aerial vehicle oblique photography data |
| CN115565062A (en) * | 2022-09-05 | 2023-01-03 | 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院 | Earthquake geological disaster and property population loss risk prediction method and system |
| CN118051717A (en) * | 2024-03-13 | 2024-05-17 | 北京师范大学 | Method, device and equipment for evaluating influence of earthquake disasters on population |
| CN118313279A (en) * | 2024-06-06 | 2024-07-09 | 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院 | Plateau alpine railway earthquake disaster scene simulation method |
Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20070225917A1 (en) * | 2006-03-27 | 2007-09-27 | Swiss Reinsurance Company | System and method for providing earthquake data |
| CN103116810A (en) * | 2013-01-28 | 2013-05-22 | 北京师范大学 | Method for evaluating population loss in earthquake |
| CN105809266A (en) * | 2014-12-31 | 2016-07-27 | 郑静晨 | Method for preliminary evaluation and prediction on earthquake casualty |
-
2018
- 2018-05-22 CN CN201810497063.0A patent/CN108960481A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20070225917A1 (en) * | 2006-03-27 | 2007-09-27 | Swiss Reinsurance Company | System and method for providing earthquake data |
| CN103116810A (en) * | 2013-01-28 | 2013-05-22 | 北京师范大学 | Method for evaluating population loss in earthquake |
| CN105809266A (en) * | 2014-12-31 | 2016-07-27 | 郑静晨 | Method for preliminary evaluation and prediction on earthquake casualty |
Cited By (17)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110070234A (en) * | 2019-04-29 | 2019-07-30 | 云南师范大学 | A kind of Earthquake-landslide personnel death quantitative forecasting technique and its application |
| CN110188456A (en) * | 2019-05-28 | 2019-08-30 | 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 | A kind of optimized calculation method of Casualties Caused By Earthquakes SDG index |
| CN110188456B (en) * | 2019-05-28 | 2020-10-16 | 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 | Optimized calculation method for SDG index of earthquake casualty |
| CN110426735A (en) * | 2019-07-02 | 2019-11-08 | 武汉大学 | A kind of detection method of the earthquake disaster coverage based on social media |
| CN111784033A (en) * | 2020-06-22 | 2020-10-16 | 中国人民解放军海军军医大学 | Earthquake death number prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium |
| CN112434951A (en) * | 2020-11-25 | 2021-03-02 | 中国海洋大学 | Earthquake disaster grade assessment method and system |
| CN112767219A (en) * | 2021-02-03 | 2021-05-07 | 上海交通大学 | Post-earthquake disaster population rapid space assessment method and system based on machine learning |
| CN113434538B (en) * | 2021-06-24 | 2024-03-08 | 北京市地震局 | Earthquake intensity assessment method and system based on population position data |
| CN113434538A (en) * | 2021-06-24 | 2021-09-24 | 北京市地震局 | Earthquake intensity evaluation method and system based on population position data |
| CN113674417A (en) * | 2021-07-23 | 2021-11-19 | 大连理工大学 | Earthquake casualty gathering area assessment method based on unmanned aerial vehicle oblique photography |
| CN113674417B (en) * | 2021-07-23 | 2024-01-26 | 大连理工大学 | Earthquake casualties gathering area assessment method based on unmanned aerial vehicle oblique photography |
| CN114187539B (en) * | 2022-02-17 | 2022-05-03 | 中国地震应急搜救中心 | Earthquake casualty assessment method based on unmanned aerial vehicle oblique photography data |
| CN114187539A (en) * | 2022-02-17 | 2022-03-15 | 中国地震应急搜救中心 | Earthquake casualty assessment method based on unmanned aerial vehicle oblique photography data |
| CN115565062A (en) * | 2022-09-05 | 2023-01-03 | 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院 | Earthquake geological disaster and property population loss risk prediction method and system |
| CN118051717A (en) * | 2024-03-13 | 2024-05-17 | 北京师范大学 | Method, device and equipment for evaluating influence of earthquake disasters on population |
| CN118313279A (en) * | 2024-06-06 | 2024-07-09 | 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院 | Plateau alpine railway earthquake disaster scene simulation method |
| CN118313279B (en) * | 2024-06-06 | 2024-09-06 | 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院 | Plateau alpine railway earthquake disaster scene simulation method |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN108960481A (en) | Earthquake disaster injures and deaths population estimation method and computer-readable medium | |
| Strunz et al. | Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia | |
| Villani et al. | Repeatable site and path effects on the ground‐motion sigma based on empirical data from southern California and simulated waveforms from the CyberShake platform | |
| Erden et al. | Analysis of earthquake parameters to generate hazard maps by integrating AHP and GIS for Küçükçekmece region | |
| Cooper et al. | Contemporary multidisciplinary approaches to coastal classification and environmental risk analysis | |
| Khodaverdian et al. | Seismicity parameters and spatially smoothed seismicity model for Iran | |
| CN115688404B (en) | Rainfall landslide early warning method based on SVM-RF model | |
| Lam et al. | Minimum loading requirements for areas of low seismicity | |
| Anbazhagan et al. | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the logic tree approach–Patna district (India) | |
| Chen et al. | A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment | |
| Firuzi et al. | Probabilistic earthquake loss model for residential buildings in Tehran, Iran to quantify annualized earthquake loss | |
| Li et al. | A composite catalog of damaging earthquakes for Mainland China | |
| Frolova et al. | Earthquake casualties estimation in emergency mode | |
| Li et al. | A rapid-response earthquake fatality estimation model for mainland China | |
| Zhang et al. | The quick assessment model of casualties for Asia based on the vulnerability of earthquake | |
| Ali et al. | Study of seismicity in the NW Himalaya and adjoining regions using IMS network | |
| Dai et al. | A rapid assessment method for earthquake-induced landslide casualties based on GIS and logistic regression model∗ | |
| Mosca et al. | Integrating outcomes from probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis in the Tien Shan | |
| Xia et al. | A composite database of casualty-inducing earthquakes in mainland China | |
| Lopes et al. | Multidimensional scaling visualization of earthquake phenomena | |
| Pothon et al. | Comparing probabilistic seismic hazard maps with ShakeMap footprints for Indonesia | |
| Arunadevi et al. | Risk Prediction of Earthquakes using Machine Learning | |
| Sira et al. | 1921–2021: 100 years of macroseismic studies at bcsf | |
| Vannucci et al. | Earthquakes Parameters from Citizen Testimonies: A Retrospective Analysis of EMSC Database | |
| Peduzzi et al. | Global risk and vulnerability index trends per year (GRAVITY) |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination |