CN110147394A - A kind of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth prediction technique based on statistical method - Google Patents
A kind of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth prediction technique based on statistical method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to hazards control field of engineering technology, more particularly to a kind of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth prediction technique based on statistical method, based on field investigation result, obtain catchment area, basin gradient, tap drain ditch length and the century-old deposit depth of different debris flow gullies, it is fitted to obtain four functional relation using Origin software, mud-rock flow a century deposit depth is calculated.The present invention reduces the workloads of ground observation, improve the convenience of prediction mud-rock flow a century deposit depth.The present invention is suitable for the long-term mud-rock flow deposit depth prediction in earthquake region, and mud-rock flow a century deposit depth is obtained by calculation, and the Site Selection for subsequent building road and bridge provides reference.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to hazards control field of engineering technology more particularly to a kind of mudstones based on statistical method
Flow century-old deposit depth prediction technique.
Background technique
Mud-rock flow as a kind of two-phase fluid between water flow and clast stream, break out suddenly, break with tremendous force, it is destructive
By force, mountainous region quickly and is consumingly acted on, is the most important form of expression of meizoseismal area geological disaster aftereffect, it will be in future
In longer term, the safety of disaster area resident, cities and towns, traffic, water conservancy, electric power facility etc. is seriously endangered, is to restore weight after influencing calamity
One of important restriction factor built.Positioned at the residential areas such as the cities and towns in alpine valley area and village and mountain highway, railway and other
Lifeline engineering passes through Debris Flow Deposition area mostly, once damaging by mud-rock flow, often loses great.Therefore, comprehensive system
Research state of debris flow disasters simultaneously predicts mud-rock flow a century deposit depth, to effectively instructing post-disaster reconstruction addressing, with economical rationality,
Safe and reliable scheme carries out the post-disaster reconstruction of debris flow area and has important practical significance.
Currently, there are mainly two types of modes for the acquisition of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth, one is by digging spy or drilling data
The siltation total height in the investigation time limit is obtained, and then mud-rock flow in following a century is calculated and always deposits highly.Another method
It is by genetic analysis method, total amount and mud-rock flow, which occurs, by mud-rock flow may deposit that obtain average siltation for many years thick for areal calculation
Degree, and then obtain mud-rock flow a century deposit depth.
Such as Publication No. CN 104809345A, publication date are that on 07 29th, 2015 Chinese patent literatures disclose
A kind of calculation method of mud-rock flow yield stress and maximum deposition thickness.Its cardinal principle are as follows: according to known mud in certain basin
The investigation result of rock glacier determines the equivalent clay mineral percentage composition P in debris flow body, it is assumed that mud-rock flow is equivalent glutinous in the basin
Native mineral percentage composition P is constant, and the yield stress and maximum deposition thickness of unknown mud-rock flow are calculated according to mud-rock flow changing bulk density,
Can also be used for calculating has identical geologic setting, can be assumed that the equivalent clay mineral percentage composition P in debris flow body is identical
Mud-rock flow yield stress and maximum deposition thickness.
Using above-mentioned patent as the prior art of representative, majority only proposes the calculating side to mud-rock flow maximum deposition thickness
Method does not carry out speculative computation to mud-rock flow future deposition thickness, lacks computation model.This vacancy leads to not accurately estimate
Mud-rock flow future siltation situation, has adverse effect the construction of road and bridge, so that after the calamity by mud-rock flow influence area
Rebuilding Site Selection has significant limitations.
Summary of the invention
The present invention in order to overcome the defects of the prior art described above, provides a kind of mud-rock flow a century silt based on statistical method
Product depth prediction approach.
The present invention is based on field investigation as a result, obtain the catchment area of different debris flow gullies, basin gradient, tap drain ditch it is long and
Century-old deposit depth is fitted to obtain four functional relation using Origin software, and mud-rock flow a century deposit depth is calculated.
The present invention specifically passes through following step:
Mud-rock flow a century deposit depth prediction technique based on statistical method, comprising the following steps:
(1) by analysis field geology data, screening geological conditions, the similar catchment basin of debris flow of weather conditions are as practical
Model analyzes the influence factor of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth；
(2) the catchment area S of investigation statistics mud-rock flow channel, basin gradient J, tap drain ditch tri- indexs of long L；
(3) mud-rock flow a century deposit depth and mud-rock flow catchment area, basin gradient, tap drain ditch are established based on statistical data
Long quantitative relationship analyzes its correlation；
(4) mud-rock flow a century deposit depth and mud are established using the calculation method of nonlinear regression using Origin software
The long quantitative calculation of rock glacier catchment area, basin gradient, tap drain ditch；
(5) mud-rock flow a century deposit depth H is calculated by formula one:
Wherein:
H=mud-rock flow a century deposit depth (m)；
S=mud-rock flow channel catchment area (km2)；
J=catchment basin of debris flow gradient (‰, when substituting into calculating, calculation formula, such as 366.08 ‰, generation are substituted into the form of decimal
0.36608) entering formula is；
L=mud-rock flow tap drain ditch is long (km).
Table 1 is the sample data and error amount that computation model is established in step (4)
Table 1
Mud-rock flow a century deposit depth prediction model in the present invention, the field investigation knot based on Debris Flow Deposition feature
Fruit, by a certain amount of sample data, in analysis mud-rock flow a century deposit depth and mud-rock flow channel catchment area, tap drain ditch
On the basis of correlativity long, between the gradient of basin, using non-linear regression method, it is deep that fitting obtains the siltation of mud-rock flow a century
The calculation method of degree.
The century-old deposit depth that the present invention is suitable for the lesser diluted debris flow of mud-rock flow bulk density is predicted；Apply also for macroseism
Area's field investigation data are less, and mud-rock flow a century deposit depth that borehole data lacks calculates.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are mainly manifested in following aspect:
1, the present invention breaches the method that tradition predicts century-old deposit depth using borehole data, wild using mud-rock flow channel
It is outer to reconnoitre obtained mud-rock flow channel essential information, prediction mud-rock flow a century deposit depth is calculated, the work of ground observation is reduced
It measures, improves the convenience of prediction mud-rock flow a century deposit depth.
2, the data such as the mud-rock flow channel catchment area used in the present invention, tap drain ditch length, basin gradient, can be by big
The method of topographic maps survey calculation and remote sensing image interpretation obtains, and has the characteristics that parameter is easy to obtain.
3, prediction mud-rock flow a century deposit depth, calculating process letter are calculated by the formula one in step (5) in the present invention
It is single convenient.
4, the present invention is suitable for the long-term mud-rock flow deposit depth prediction in earthquake region, and it is deep that the siltation of mud-rock flow a century is obtained by calculation
Degree, the Site Selection for subsequent building road and bridge provide reference.
Detailed description of the invention
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with specification drawings and specific embodiments, in which:
Fig. 1 is mud-rock flow channel catchment area in the present invention, tap drain ditch length, basin gradient and mud-rock flow a century deposit depth
Between correlativity；
Marked in the figure: H=mud-rock flow a century deposit depth (m)；S=mud-rock flow channel catchment area (km2)；J=mudstone
Flow basin gradient；L=mud-rock flow tap drain ditch is long (km).
Fig. 2 is that the century-old deposit depth actually explored in case study on implementation becomes silted up with a century being calculated through the invention
Product depth correlation schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
It is described in conjunction with the embodiments technical solution of the present invention.
The technical solution that following embodiment uses are as follows:
Mud-rock flow a century deposit depth prediction technique based on statistical method, comprising the following steps:
(1) by analysis field geology data, screening geological conditions, the similar catchment basin of debris flow of weather conditions are as practical
Model analyzes the influence factor of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth；
(2) the catchment area S of investigation statistics mud-rock flow channel, basin gradient J, tap drain ditch tri- indexs of long L；
(3) mud-rock flow a century deposit depth and mud-rock flow catchment area, basin gradient, tap drain ditch are established based on statistical data
Long quantitative relationship analyzes its correlation；Such as Fig. 1；
(4) mud-rock flow a century deposit depth and mud are established using the calculation method of nonlinear regression using Origin software
The long quantitative calculation of rock glacier catchment area, basin gradient, tap drain ditch；
(5) mud-rock flow a century deposit depth H is calculated by formula one:
Wherein:
H=mud-rock flow a century deposit depth (m)；
S=mud-rock flow channel catchment area (km2)；
J=catchment basin of debris flow gradient (‰, when substituting into calculating, calculation formula, such as 366.08 ‰, generation are substituted into the form of decimal
0.36608) entering formula is；
L=mud-rock flow tap drain ditch is long (km).
Embodiment 1
Calculating prediction is carried out at blue railway Mao County section misery gully mud-rock flow a century deposit depth using the present invention.
Misery ditch is located at the Man-made Forests in Maoxian, Sichuan exit or entrance of a clitch township village Wang Jia east northeast direction about 100m, and geographical coordinate is between 31 ° 47 '
Between 45.4 "~31 ° 48 ' 42.3 " and 103 ° 48 ' 29.2 "~103 ° 50 ' 09.7 ".
Catchment area (the km of misery Watershed is obtained by factual survey2), basin gradient, tap drain ditch long (km) is using public
Misery gully mud-rock flow a century deposit depth (m) is calculated in formula one.
Embodiment 2
Calculating prediction is carried out at blue railway Songpan temple Duan Jiazhu gully mud-rock flow a century deposit depth using the present invention.
First bamboo temple ditch is the domestic Ming River left bank in Songpan Zhenping downstream 3000m or so, and geographical coordinate is between 32 ° 12 ' 9.32 "~
32 ° 15 ' 10 ", 103 ° 45 ' 57.3 "~103 ° 49 ' 52 ".
Catchment area (the km of first bamboo temple Watershed is obtained by factual survey2), basin gradient, tap drain ditch long (km) utilize
First bamboo temple gully mud-rock flow a century deposit depth (m) is calculated in formula one.
Embodiment 3
Calculating prediction is carried out at blue railway Songpan section grid gully mud-rock flow a century deposit depth using the present invention.
Grid ditch is located at the domestic Ming River left bank in Songpan Zhenping upstream, geographical coordinate is between 32 ° 13 ' 59 "~32 ° 15 '
26.6 ", 103 ° 45 ' 43 "~103 ° 48 ' 31 ".
Catchment area (the km of grid Watershed is obtained by factual survey2), basin gradient, tap drain ditch long (km) is using public
Grid gully mud-rock flow a century deposit depth (m) is calculated in formula one.
Calculated result is as shown in table 2:
Table 2
It is learnt by table 2 and Fig. 2, the result obtained using above-mentioned mud-rock flow a century deposit depth calculation method and practical field
It is close to explore result, therefore, the calculation method of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth disclosed by the invention has practical value.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth prediction technique based on statistical method, which is characterized in that be based on field investigation
As a result, the catchment area of different debris flow gullies, basin gradient, tap drain ditch length and century-old deposit depth are obtained, it is soft using Origin
Part is fitted to obtain four functional relation, and mud-rock flow a century deposit depth is calculated.
2. a kind of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth prediction technique based on statistical method according to claim 1, special
Sign is, comprising the following steps:
(1) by analysis field geology data, screening geological conditions, the similar catchment basin of debris flow of weather conditions are used as practical mould
Type analyzes the influence factor of mud-rock flow a century deposit depth；
(2) the catchment area S of investigation statistics mud-rock flow channel, basin gradient J, tap drain ditch tri- indexs of long L；
(3) mud-rock flow a century deposit depth is established based on statistical data and mud-rock flow catchment area, basin gradient, tap drain ditch is grown
Quantitative relationship analyzes its correlation；
(4) mud-rock flow a century deposit depth and mud-rock flow are established using the calculation method of nonlinear regression using Origin software
The long quantitative calculation of catchment area, basin gradient, tap drain ditch；
(5) mud-rock flow a century deposit depth H is calculated by formula one；
Wherein:
H=mud-rock flow a century deposit depth, m；
S=mud-rock flow channel catchment area, km2；
J=catchment basin of debris flow gradient, ‰, when substituting into calculating, calculation formula is substituted into the form of decimal；
L=mud-rock flow tap drain ditch is long, km.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN111639444A (en) * | 2020-06-19 | 2020-09-08 | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | Method for measuring and calculating sand blocking rate of debris flow blocking dam and application |
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| CN111639444A (en) * | 2020-06-19 | 2020-09-08 | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | Method for measuring and calculating sand blocking rate of debris flow blocking dam and application |
| CN111639444B (en) * | 2020-06-19 | 2023-02-28 | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | Method for measuring and calculating sand blocking rate of debris flow blocking dam and application |
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