CN110118380A - Equivalent design capacity calculation method for solar heating system - Google Patents

Equivalent design capacity calculation method for solar heating system Download PDF

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CN110118380A
CN110118380A CN201910302951.7A CN201910302951A CN110118380A CN 110118380 A CN110118380 A CN 110118380A CN 201910302951 A CN201910302951 A CN 201910302951A CN 110118380 A CN110118380 A CN 110118380A
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CN110118380B (en
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田喆
兰博
牛纪德
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Tianjin University
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    • FMECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F24HEATING; RANGES; VENTILATING
    • F24DDOMESTIC- OR SPACE-HEATING SYSTEMS, e.g. CENTRAL HEATING SYSTEMS; DOMESTIC HOT-WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS; ELEMENTS OR COMPONENTS THEREFOR
    • F24D15/00Other domestic- or space-heating systems
    • FMECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
    • F24HEATING; RANGES; VENTILATING
    • F24DDOMESTIC- OR SPACE-HEATING SYSTEMS, e.g. CENTRAL HEATING SYSTEMS; DOMESTIC HOT-WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS; ELEMENTS OR COMPONENTS THEREFOR
    • F24D19/00Details
    • F24D19/10Arrangement or mounting of control or safety devices
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • G06F30/10Geometric CAD
    • G06F30/13Architectural design, e.g. computer-aided architectural design [CAAD] related to design of buildings, bridges, landscapes, production plants or roads
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • G06F30/20Design optimisation, verification or simulation
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02BCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
    • Y02B10/00Integration of renewable energy sources in buildings
    • Y02B10/20Solar thermal
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02BCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
    • Y02B10/00Integration of renewable energy sources in buildings
    • Y02B10/70Hybrid systems, e.g. uninterruptible or back-up power supplies integrating renewable energies

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  • Mechanical Engineering (AREA)
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for calculating equivalent design capacity of a solar heating system, which comprises the following steps: step 1: inputting historical measured meteorological data and thermal parameters of a building, and performing computer simulation by using EnergyPlus software to obtain a building heating load; step 2: calculating to obtain the area of the solar heat collector and the capacity of the auxiliary heat source; and step 3: adjusting the capacity of an auxiliary heat source in the heating system by adopting a bisection method; and 4, step 4: evaluating equivalent design capacity of a solar heating system; and 5: and calculating convergence judgment to obtain the final equivalent design capacity of the solar heating system. The method can calculate the equivalent design capacity actually provided by the solar heating system under the condition of considering weather uncertainty, reduce the auxiliary heat source capacity according to the calculated equivalent design capacity on the premise of ensuring the user energy demand, and improve the economic benefit of the system.

Description

A kind of solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity calculation methods
Technical field
The present invention relates to solar energy sunykatuib analysis fields, more particularly to a kind of solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity Calculation method.
Background technique
As the demand of renewable energy increases year by year, consumption accounted for the specific gravity of global total energy from 2015 7.1% expects to increase 13% to the year two thousand forty.Renewable energy makes substitution traditional energy become possibility, however due to producing in real time Uncertainty caused by the variation of amount makes the capacity planning of some renewable energy face the challenge.Therefore, accurate resource capability Value assessment is most important for the Long-term planning of system.
In solar heating system capacity planning design process, generally calculated using Engineering Design Manual, such as In GB50495-2009 " solar-heating heating engineering technical specification ", using the average sun spoke on local heat collector lighting surface The amount of penetrating combines the Heat consumption calculation of solar insuring rate and building to obtain the system solar thermal collector gross area.Such methods In, meteorological uncertain variation is not considered using the simplification method of mean value alternate variation value, therefore be generally acknowledged that solar energy Heat collector only has energy value to be worth without capacity, generally requires the addition auxiliary thermal source into system and carries out joint energy supply.Separately Outside, for solar heating system, building and heating load and solar heat collector to supply heat amount by by when inside even from weather Obviously, temporal energy mismatches the reliability that will be greatly reduced such system, has ignored temporal aspect and has also been ignored as heat Amount supply and workload demand by when matched basic demand.
Although this design method using national regulation can guarantee that whole system is reliable for operation, has ignored in reality In operation, when solar-heating, can provide reliable power system capacity to a certain extent, therefore also be worth with certain capacity. If do not assessed rationally the power system capacity after addition solar energy, ignore the capacity that this part solar energy can be provided, It is excessive to will cause practical energy supplying system Preliminary design, initial cost increase the problem of.
Summary of the invention
Purpose of the invention is to overcome the shortcomings in the prior art, provides a kind of solar heating system equivalent arrangements Capacity calculation methods, this method can obtain the solar energy for meeting Practical Project demand using system reliability as binding target Heat collector equivalent arrangements capacity, provides reference for designer.
The purpose of the present invention is what is be achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity calculation methods, comprising the following steps:
Step 1: the thermal parameter of input history actual measurement meteorological data and building is counted using EnergyPlus software Calculation machine simulates to obtain building and heating load.
Step 2: solar thermal collector area and auxiliary thermal source capacity is calculated.Using GB50495-2009 " solar energy Heat supply heating engineering legislation " in method the capacity of initial sun energy heat collector area and auxiliary thermal source is calculated.
In formula: ACFor the immediate system solar thermal collector gross area;QHFor heat consumption of building;JTLocal solar energy heating Average day solar radiation quantity on device lighting surface;F is solar insuring rate;ηcdIt is averaged collecting efficiency for solar thermal collector;ηL For pipeline and storage thermal heat loss rate.
Heat consumption of building is building and heating load, auxiliary thermal source initial capacity C=Q in above formulaH, furthermore remaining parameter It is obtained by consulting subordinate list in specification.
Step 3: auxiliary thermal source capacity in heating system is adjusted using dichotomy.Enable Cmax=C, Cmin=0, pass through formula (2) Auxiliary thermal source initial change capacity is calculated.Shown in new auxiliary thermal source capacity such as formula (3).
CΔa=(Cmax+Cmin) (2)
C'=C-CΔa (3)
In formula: CΔaFor auxiliary thermal source initial change capacity;C' is new auxiliary thermal source capacity.
Step 4: solar heating system equivalent arrangements Capacity Assessment.By the building simulated in step 1 by when adopt New auxiliary thermal source capacity obtained in warm load and step 3, is supplied by the new auxiliary thermal source that TRNSYS simulation calculation obtains Energy and heating load by when size relation judge whether system reliable.V (t) is t hours Calculation of Reliability indexs, if energy Source supply amount is greater than demand, and then system is reliable (v (t)=1) in t hours, otherwise unreliable (v (t)=0), such as formula (4) institute Show.
Chillout probability is λ1, indicate that insecure hourage Zhan always emulates the ratio of hourage (m), pass through formula (5) It indicates.It is added up heat load in all unreliable hours to obtain chillout load λ2, indicated, supplied by formula (6) Warm reliability (β) is defined as shown in formula (7).
In formula: Δ QhlIt (t) is t hours chillout load, QhlIt (t) is t moment heating amount, QstIt (t) is t moment Amount of stored heat, QaIt (t) is t moment donkey boiler heating load.
Step 5: calculating convergence judgement, obtain final solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity.
It selects to hold with reliabilities such as boiler heating systems as constraint condition with the alternative donkey boiler of solar thermal collector Amount is as the equivalent arrangements capacity in solar heating system, as shown in formula (8):
f(C,QH)=f (C+Asc-CΔa,QH) (8)
In formula, f () is Calculation of Reliability function, and C is auxiliary thermal source capacity, AscFor solar thermal collector area.
By formula (8) it is found that the capacity of auxiliary thermal source can be reduced by increasing solar thermal collector area, reduction it is auxiliary Helping heat source amount of capacity is the equivalent arrangements capacity (C of solar thermal collectore), as shown in formula (9).
Ce=CΔa (9)
It is λ by the chillout probability that the index in step 3 and step 4 is calculated1' and chillout load λ2', and chillout probability is set as λ1With chillout load λ2It comparing, control methods is determined using convergence index, Wherein convergence index includes chillout load hourage relative error (δ1') and chillout load relative error (δ2'), Threshold value is respectively set as δ1=0.5% and δ2=5%, it calculates separately as shown in formula (10) (11).
If δ1'<δ1And δ2'<δ2, then convergence is calculated, obtained CΔaAs equivalent arrangements capacity Ce;Otherwise judge λ1'>λ1And λ2'>λ2, if so, then enable Cmax=CΔa, C is enabled if invalidmin=CΔa, return to step 3- step 5 and calculated, directly It is restrained to calculating.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects brought by the technical solution of the present invention are as follows:
1, the solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity calculation methods that the present invention establishes, solve due in ENERGY PLANNING Stage, solar heating system are influenced have the characteristics that changeability and uncertainty by weather conditions, cause to disregard at present Solar energy for energy the problem of.Theoretical calculation foundation is provided for the quantization of energy for practical solar energy.
2, method proposed by the present invention is able to solve compared with traditional engineering discipline design method due to having ignored the sun The available capacity that energy heat collector is capable of providing leads to the problem of auxiliary thermal source capacity increase.Carrying out equivalent arrangements calculation of capacity Afterwards, auxiliary thermal source capacity can be reduced, the economy of system is improved.
3, the present invention simulates practical solar-heating amount and and building by EnergyPlus and TRNSYS simulation softward Heating load, in conjunction with fail-safe analysis, it is contemplated that under actual conditions build and heating equipment by when operating condition, with tradition advise The method of drawing compares the system reliability under considering per hour, closer to actual conditions.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity calculation methods flow chart provided by the invention.
Fig. 2 is solar heating system schematic diagram in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is 20 years hourly load simulation result diagrams in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is hourly load probability distribution statistical figure in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 5 be in the embodiment of the present invention 20 years by when heating load simulation result diagram.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments.It should be appreciated that described herein Specific embodiment be only used to explain the present invention, be not intended to limit the present invention.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity calculation methods, comprising the following steps:
Step 1: the thermal parameter of input history actual measurement meteorological data and building is counted using EnergyPlus software Calculation machine simulates to obtain building and heating load.
Step 2: solar thermal collector area and auxiliary thermal source capacity is calculated.Using GB 50495-2009 " solar energy Heat supply heating engineering legislation " in method the capacity of initial sun energy heat collector area and auxiliary thermal source is calculated.
In formula: ACFor the immediate system solar thermal collector gross area;QHFor heat consumption of building;JTLocal solar energy heating Average day solar radiation quantity on device lighting surface;F is solar insuring rate;ηcdIt is averaged collecting efficiency for solar thermal collector;ηL For pipeline and storage thermal heat loss rate.
Heat consumption of building is building and heating load, auxiliary thermal source initial capacity C=Q in above formulaH, furthermore remaining parameter It is obtained by consulting subordinate list in specification.
Step 3: auxiliary thermal source capacity in heating system is adjusted using dichotomy.Enable Cmax=C, Cmin=0, pass through formula (2) Auxiliary thermal source initial change capacity is calculated.Shown in new auxiliary thermal source capacity such as formula (3).
CΔa=(Cmax+Cmin) (2)
C'=C-CΔa (3)
In formula: CΔaFor auxiliary thermal source initial change capacity;C' is new auxiliary thermal source capacity.
Step 4: solar heating system equivalent arrangements Capacity Assessment.By the building simulated in step 1 by when adopt Warm load is supplied with new auxiliary thermal source capacity obtained in step 3 by the new auxiliary thermal source that TRNSYS simulation calculation obtains Energy and heating load by when size relation judge whether system reliable.V (t) is t hours Calculation of Reliability indexs, if energy Source supply amount is greater than demand, and then system is reliable (v (t)=1) in t hours, otherwise unreliable (v (t)=0), such as formula (4) institute Show.
Chillout probability is λ1, indicate that insecure hourage Zhan always emulates the ratio of hourage (m), pass through formula (5) It indicates.It is added up heat load in all unreliable hours to obtain chillout load λ2, indicated, supplied by formula (6) Warm reliability (β) is defined as shown in formula (7).
In formula: Δ QhlIt (t) is t hours chillout load, QhlIt (t) is t moment heating amount, QstIt (t) is t moment Amount of stored heat, QaIt (t) is t moment donkey boiler heating load.
Step 5: calculating convergence judgement, obtain final solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity.
It selects to hold with reliabilities such as boiler heating systems as constraint condition with the alternative donkey boiler of solar thermal collector Amount is as the equivalent arrangements capacity in solar heating system, as shown in formula (8):
f(C,QH)=f (C+Asc-CΔa,QH) (8)
In formula, f () is Calculation of Reliability function, and C is auxiliary thermal source capacity, AscFor solar thermal collector area.
By formula (8) it is found that the capacity of auxiliary thermal source can be reduced by increasing solar thermal collector area, reduction it is auxiliary Helping heat source amount of capacity is the equivalent arrangements capacity (C of solar thermal collectore), as shown in formula (9).
Ce=CΔa (9)
It is λ by the chillout probability that the index in step 3 and step 4 is calculated1' and chillout load λ2', and chillout probability is set as λ1With chillout load λ2It comparing, control methods is determined using convergence index, Wherein convergence index includes chillout load hourage relative error (δ1') and chillout load relative error (δ2'), Threshold value is respectively set as δ1=0.5% and δ2=5%, it calculates separately as shown in formula (10) (11).
If δ1'<δ1And δ2'<δ2, then convergence is calculated, obtained CΔaAs equivalent arrangements capacity Ce;Otherwise judge λ1'>λ1And λ2'>λ2, if so, then enable Cmax=CΔa, C is enabled if invalidmin=CΔa, return to step (3)-(5) and calculated, directly It is restrained to calculating.
Embodiment:
Based on the present invention is using the 20 years weather measured datas in the area A, designs following building and be used as simulation example, to test Demonstrate,prove the applicability of the method for the present invention.
1) data assertion is emulated:
The building be southeast direction, totally 3 layers, heating area 1440m2.It 22 DEG C of winter heating indoor design temperature, specifically sets Meter parameter is shown in Table 1.Heating duration be annual November 15 to March 15, totally 121 days.Daily heating duration is 9:00-17:00, The hourage that always heats in solar heating system year is (H=1089h).Change for the uncertainty of discovery meteorological element at any time, The present invention using -2010 years 1991 by when Practical Meteorological Requirements data emulate, embody heating load and equipment performance be annual Uncertainty.
Heating equipment selects plate solar collector and donkey boiler.Emulation calculates building using EnergyPlus software Heating load, by input building geographical location, direction, building enclosure parameter, disturb in personnel and local meteorological data etc. in detail Information generates Heating Season and builds dynamic heating load per hour.Situation, heating system are energized using TRNSYS software analog machine Schematic diagram is emulated as shown in Fig. 2, the specific setting parameter of emulation is as shown in table 1.
Table 1 emulates specific setting parameter
2) solar thermal collector area and auxiliary thermal source capacity is calculated:
Fig. 3 is the timing diagram of building and heating load, brings formula (1) by the building load in Fig. 3 and is calculated, is obtained too Positive energy heat collector area is 100m2, auxiliary thermal source capacity is 84.8kW.By to 20 years by when heating load carry out probability system Meter, obtains result as shown in figure 4, it can be seen that maximum heating load is 113kW in figure, major part few more than 100kW load Load concentrates in the section 0-80kW.
3) after dichotomy is adjusted, solar-heating amount simulation result:
Solar energy is effective to obtain heat Calculation such as formula (1):
Qsc=FRAc[It(τα)e-UL(Ti-Ta)] (1)
In formula, QscFor solar thermal collector clear heat;FRFor the solar thermal collector thermophoresis factor;ItFor on inclined surface Solar radiation amount;(τα)eFor glass cover-plate transmittance and absorber plate absorptance product;ULFor the total heat waste of solar thermal collector Lose coefficient;TiFor solar thermal collector inlet temperature;TaFor ambient air temperature.Wherein, FR、(τα)e、UL、TiFor solar energy collection Hot device inherent parameters, are obtained by consult table 1.Remaining meteorologic parameter, according to 20 years by when meteorological data obtain.
Irradiation (I on plate solar collector inclined surfacet) such as formula (2):
In formula, ItFor irradiation on inclined surface;IbFor direct projection irradiation on horizontal plane;IdTo scatter irradiation on horizontal plane; β is plate solar collector inclination angle;ρ is Reflectivity for Growing Season;RbFor direct solar radiation modifying factor on inclined surface.Wherein, β, ρ, Rb For intrinsic parameter, obtained by consult table 1, remaining solar radiation parameter according to 20 years by when meteorological data obtain.
Unit area solar heat collector to supply heat amount, such as Fig. 5 in the solar heating system obtained after being emulated by above formula It is shown.Solar thermal collector can constantly provide heat effectively as heat source, carry out heat supply simultaneously with auxiliary thermal source, even 600W/m is capable of providing within heating latter portions hour every year2Above heat, this portion of energy cannot be ignored.Illustrate In actual moving process, solar energy heat distribution system can effectively reduce the design of auxiliary thermal source there are certain capacity value Planned capacity.
Fig. 5 it is also seen that in the Heating Period of annual 1089h, due to not the same year synchronization meteorologic parameter not Together, Solar Energy Heat Utilization System is influenced obviously by weather uncertainty, and there is the uncertainties of heat supply.Additionally, due to building Type is office building, is heated using intermittence, therefore solar thermal collector obtains heat in the presence of the periodicity as unit of day.Knot It closes and states the negative rules that analysis obtains, load and solar thermal collector obtain heat all simultaneously by the shadow of solar radiation It rings, cyclically-varying is presented, there is temporal correlations.Therefore the present invention uses reliability concept, passes through the side of emulation Formula go to analyze by when evaluation index of the energy match situation as its reliability, consideration under DESIGN RELIABILITY is calculated not Deterministic solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity.
4) the equivalent arrangements capacity under DESIGN RELIABILITY:
According to ASHRAE design manual, when calculating Heating Design load, outdoor dry bulb is accumulated in outdoor dry-bulb temperature selection The 99.6% of temperature or 99% is used as design temperature, and the office building is calculated with 99.6% alternatively foundation in the present invention Chillout probability be λ1It is 0.4%, chillout load λ2For 331kW.
Under the conditions of selecting same 99.6% reliability, the present invention is calculated using identical solar thermal collector area, The planning and designing result for considering equivalent arrangements capacity is calculated.Practical solar thermal collector is capable of providing the equivalent of 12.9kW and sets Capacity is counted, therefore practical boiler design capacity is 72.1kW, reduces by 15.2% design capacity.As can be seen that guaranteeing system Under conditions of same reliability, considers the equivalent arrangements capacity of solar heating system, auxiliary thermal source can be effectively reduced Design capacity, lifting system economic benefit.
Equivalent capacity calculated result under 2 DESIGN RELIABILITY of table
The present invention is not limited to embodiments described above.Above the description of specific embodiment is intended to describe and say Bright technical solution of the present invention, the above mentioned embodiment is only schematical, is not restrictive.This is not being departed from In the case of invention objective and scope of the claimed protection, those skilled in the art may be used also under the inspiration of the present invention The specific transformation of many forms is made, within these are all belonged to the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims (1)

1. a kind of solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity calculation methods, which comprises the following steps:
Step 1: the thermal parameter of input history actual measurement meteorological data and building carries out computer using EnergyPlus software Simulation obtains building and heating load;
Step 2: solar thermal collector area and auxiliary thermal source capacity is calculated;Using GB50495-2009 " solar-heating Heating engineering technical specification " in method the capacity of initial sun energy heat collector area and auxiliary thermal source is calculated;
In formula: ACFor the immediate system solar thermal collector gross area;QHFor heat consumption of building;JTLocal solar thermal collector is adopted Average day solar radiation quantity in smooth surface;F is solar insuring rate;ηcdIt is averaged collecting efficiency for solar thermal collector;ηLFor pipe Road and storage thermal heat loss rate;
Heat consumption of building Q in above formulaHAs building and heating load, auxiliary thermal source initial capacity C=QH, remaining parameter is by looking into Subordinate list in specification is read to obtain;
Step 3: auxiliary thermal source capacity in heating system is adjusted using dichotomy;Enable Cmax=C, Cmin=0, it is calculated by formula (2) Obtain auxiliary thermal source initial change capacity;Shown in new auxiliary thermal source capacity such as formula (3):
CΔa=(Cmax+Cmin) (2)
C'=C-CΔa (3)
In formula: CΔaFor auxiliary thermal source initial change capacity;C' is new auxiliary thermal source capacity;
Step 4: solar heating system equivalent arrangements Capacity Assessment;By the building simulated in step 1 by when heating it is negative New auxiliary thermal source capacity obtained in lotus and step 3, the new auxiliary thermal source obtained by TRNSYS simulation calculation is for energy With heating load by when size relation judge whether system reliable;V (t) is t hours Calculation of Reliability indexs, if the energy supplies Being greater than demand to amount, then system is reliable (v (t)=1) in t hours, otherwise unreliable (v (t)=0), as shown in formula (4);
Chillout probability is λ1, indicate that insecure hourage Zhan always emulates the ratio of hourage (m), indicated by formula (5); It is added up heat load in all unreliable hours to obtain chillout load λ2, indicated by formula (6), heating is reliable Degree (β) is defined as shown in formula (7);
In formula: Δ QhlIt (t) is t hours chillout load, QhlIt (t) is t moment heating amount, QstIt (t) is t moment accumulation of heat Amount, QaIt (t) is t moment donkey boiler heating load;
Step 5: calculating convergence judgement, obtain final solar heating system equivalent arrangements capacity;
It selects to make with reliabilities such as boiler heating systems as constraint condition with the alternative donkey boiler capacity of solar thermal collector For the equivalent arrangements capacity in solar heating system, as shown in formula (8):
f(C,QH)=f (C+Asc-CΔa,QH) (8)
In formula, f () is Calculation of Reliability function, and C is auxiliary thermal source capacity, AscFor solar thermal collector area;
By formula (8) it is found that reducing the capacity of auxiliary thermal source, the auxiliary thermal source capacity of reduction by increasing solar thermal collector area Size is the equivalent arrangements capacity (C of solar thermal collectore), as shown in formula (9);
Ce=CΔa (9)
It is λ by the chillout probability that the index in step 3 and step 4 is calculated1' and chillout load λ2', with Chillout probability is set as λ1With chillout load λ2It compares, control methods is determined using convergence index, wherein receiving Holding back index includes chillout load hourage relative error (δ1') and chillout load relative error (δ2'), threshold value point δ is not set as it1=0.5% and δ2=5%, it calculates separately as shown in formula (10) (11);
If δ1'<δ1And δ2'<δ2, then convergence is calculated, obtained CΔaAs equivalent arrangements capacity Ce;Otherwise judge λ1'>λ1And λ2'> λ2, if so, then enable Cmax=CΔa, C is enabled if invalidmin=CΔa, it returns to step 3- step 5 and is calculated, Zhi Daoji Calculate convergence.
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