CN109919374A - Prediction of Stock Price method based on APSO-BP neural network - Google Patents

Prediction of Stock Price method based on APSO-BP neural network Download PDF

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CN109919374A
CN109919374A CN201910154140.7A CN201910154140A CN109919374A CN 109919374 A CN109919374 A CN 109919374A CN 201910154140 A CN201910154140 A CN 201910154140A CN 109919374 A CN109919374 A CN 109919374A
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particle
neural network
prediction
apso
price
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方昕
侯怡岑
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Hangzhou Dianzi University
Hangzhou Electronic Science and Technology University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of Prediction of Stock Index methods based on APSO-BP neural network, including data prediction, building APSO-BP neural network prediction model.It goes forward side by side line number Data preprocess firstly, extracting validity feature in the stock certificate data of collection, forms characteristic sample set.Then, suitable BP neural network model is constructed.Optimize the initial weight and threshold value of the BP neural network using TSP question particle swarm algorithm (APSO) later, to obtain final APSO-BP neural network prediction model.The precision of prediction of the method for the present invention is higher, and will not fall into local extremum, and fast convergence rate, predicted time is short, thereby executing more efficient.

Description

Prediction of Stock Price method based on APSO-BP neural network
Technical field
The invention belongs to the fields machine learning (Machine Learning, ML), relate generally to a kind of Prediction of Stock Price Method is based especially on the Prediction of Stock Price method of APSO-BP neural network.
Background technique
With the persistently overheating of machine learning research temperature, machine learning has also obtained extensively in financial time series field Application have very strong capability of fitting because the ability of artificial neural network processing nonlinear problem is prominent, there is good prediction Property and practicability, obtain comparing accurately prediction result in certain fields, so more and more researcher is by it and finance Time series combines, and applies in stock trend prediction.Machine learning can be arranged from a large amount of historical data, be excavated The rule and valuable information that time series itself implies obtain difference profit for investor and provide effective technical support. Although present Financial Time Series Forecasting technology has very much, what existing technology still cannot be simple and efficient reaches expected Effect.In addition, the economic development of entire society and the well development in financial market are closely related, China's Financial market is also in hair The exhibition stage.Therefore, machine learning is applied to finance data, is capable of the inherent law in Correct Analysis financial market, constantly holds Its dynamic change has important practical significance.
Machine learning techniques can imitate the stock market of fluctuation, can produce than conventional method in stock trend prediction Raw better prediction result.Traditional BP neural network is that the work side of neuron is imitated from physiological angle to a certain extent Formula can arbitrarily approach non-linear complicated function, but it is easily trapped into local extremum, and convergence rate is slow, so as to cause prediction Model performance does not reach expection.
Summary of the invention
To solve the problems of the above-mentioned prior art, the present invention proposes a kind of based on the BP for improving particle swarm algorithm optimization Neural network prediction model, proposes a kind of TSP question grain at the characteristics of realizing simple, fast convergence rate using particle swarm algorithm What subgroup optimization algorithm (Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization, APSO) and BP neural network combined APSO-BP algorithm, the algorithm introduce variation particle to adjust the weight and threshold value of BP neural network, and will nerve net after optimization Network weight and threshold value, which substitute into BP network, is tested, and is outputed test data, is adjusted the weight of BP network, so that prediction stock Admission fee lattice direction is more accurate, and the problem of overcame adaptation, avoids falling into local optimum.
In order to achieve the above objectives, the present invention takes following technical scheme:
S1: obtaining stock certificate data, carries out Feature Selection and data prediction;
S2: the network structure of BP neural network, including input layer number, output layer number of nodes, hidden layer node are determined Number, activation primitive and total number of particles;
S3 constructs the BP neural network model optimized based on APSO, specifically:
S3.1, initiation parameter: particle group velocity, position, inertial factor w, Studying factors c1,c2, maximum number of iterations, The learning rate η and aimed at precision g of neural network;
S3.2 calculates particle and adapts to, using the mean square error of stock advance-decline prediction value and actual value as fitness function, Formula is as follows:
Wherein, djFor desired output;yjFor reality output;M is number of samples;
S3.3, it is optimal to find out each particle individual, sets local optimum for the optimal location under particle current iteration;
S3.4 finds out the global optimum of entire group, compares the mean square error of each particle in population, obtains the overall situation most It is excellent;
S3.5 updates particle rapidity, formula are as follows:
Wherein Vk、XkRespectively correspond speed of certain particle in kth time iteration, position, optimal location;Generation The global optimum position of table population in kth time iterative process, r1,r2∈ [0,1], is uniformly distributed at random;
If V > Vmax, then V=Vmax;If V <-Vmax, then V=-Vmax, otherwise constant;
S3.6 gives random variation for non-optimal particle, updates particle position:
Calculation formula are as follows: Xk+1=Xk+Vk+1
S3.7 judges whether that reaching maximum cycle or fitness value reaches target value, if then entering S3.8, otherwise Return to S3.2;
S3.8, export optimal particle, be up to requirement particle correspond BP neural network initial connection weight with Threshold value;
S3.9 inputs training data, training BP neural network;
S3.10, input test sample;
S3.11 exports prediction result, and is compared with actual value.
Preferably, in step S1, the feature of screening includes opening price, closing price, highest price, lowest price and exchange hand;Institute State data prediction specifically: be normalized to stock certificate data, normalize formula are as follows:
Wherein, certain time series x={ x1,x2,...,xn, xnormIt is the value after normalization, xminIt is minimum value in sequence, xmaxIt is the maximum value in sequence.
Preferably, in step S2, input layer includes opening price, closing price, highest price, lowest price and the exchange hand of stock, The ups and downs situation that output layer is next day;Node in hidden layer is by formulaIt determines, wherein q is hidden layer section Points;N is input layer number;M is output layer number of nodes;A is the constant between 0~10;The activation primitive usesTotal number of particles S=n × q+q × the m+q+m.
Compared with the prior art, the present invention have it is following the utility model has the advantages that
1, it is slow to solve BP neural network convergence rate for APSO-BP neural net prediction method proposed by the present invention, nerve The problem of futile-iteration of network, consuming time is long;
2, APSO algorithm proposed by the present invention introduces variation thought, and particle is enable to jump out previous optimal value position, Carry out search in bigger space, while having stronger local search ability, ability of searching optimum is also promoted obviously, is overcome The problem of being easily trapped into local extremum;
3, APSO algorithm high degree proposed by the present invention finds optimal BP neural network initial weight and threshold value goes to replace Random value improves precision of prediction.
4, the present invention improves the precision of prediction of share price, this is significant to investor, and moves to financial market is held State variation has realistic meaning.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is system model figure of the invention;
Fig. 2 is flow chart of the invention;
Fig. 3 (a) is the convergence process figure of Apple Inc.'s mean square error in present example;
Fig. 3 (b) is the convergence process figure of Amazon Company's mean square error in present example;
Fig. 3 (c) is the convergence process figure of Microsoft's mean square error in present example.
Specific embodiment
Present invention will be further explained below with reference to the attached drawings and examples.
Fig. 1 show forecast system model of the invention, and the data used in the prediction model are a certain stock respectively Opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, exchange hand, next day trend.Herein, next day trend is contingency table Label, tag along sort is allocated according to closing price, Ct+1T+1 days closing prices are represented, then in the t days training label yt It can be calculated by the following formula:
If next day closing price is greater than the closing price of today, it is judged to rising, use 1 indicates, it is on the contrary then be judged to falling, It is indicated with -1.
After inputting stock certificate data, then with APSO algorithm go each of Optimized BP Neural Network weight and threshold value.Then Determined, if ineligible, continues to be optimized with APSO, the BP neural network after otherwise being optimized.
Referring to Fig. 2, this implementation includes the following steps:
S1 obtains stock certificate data
S1.1, Feature Selection
Apple (Apple), Amazon of the stock certificate data collection that the present invention uses from the offer of the Yahoo website (Yahoo) (Amazon), Microsoft (Microsoft) stock information.Using the data of 2010-04-01 to 2014-05-10 as training data, The data of 2014-05-10 to 2014-10-12 are as test data.Use herein the opening price of stock, closing price, highest price, Lowest price, exchange hand as input feature vector, next day ups and downs situation as output, partial data as indicated with 1:
1 Microsoft's stock certificate data of table
Date Opening price Highest price Lowest price Closing price Exchange hand Stock trend
2010/4/01 29.64 29.72 29.17 29.29 63760000 -1
2010/4/02 29.35 29.54 28.62 29.16 74768100 1
2010/4/03 29.13 29.43 29.03 29.27 34331200 1
2010/4/04 29.15 29.58 28.98 29.32 47366800 1
2010/4/05 29.16 29.56 29.14 29.35 58318800 1
2010/4/06 29.32 29.98 29.30 29.92 63713800 1
2010/4/07 29.95 30.41 29.9 30.34 54752500 -1
2010/4/08 30.25 30.49 30.21 30.32 37068800 1
2010/4/09 30.15 30.5 30.13 30.45 41374600 1
2010/4/10 30.79 31.0 30.66 30.82 68941200 1
2010/4/11 30.82 30.95 30.71 30.87 52745400 -1
S1.2, data prediction
As shown in Table 1 above, the parameter that the present invention inputs is more, closing price, exchange hand, stock trend they have difference Unit, it is therefore desirable to it is normalized, after first stock certificate data is normalized, then inputs corresponding mould Type.It is as follows to normalize formula:
Wherein assume certain time series x={ x1,x2,...,xn, xnormIt is the value after normalization, xminIt is minimum in sequence Value, xmaxIt is the maximum value in sequence.
S2 determines the network structure of BP neural network.
S2.1, the determination of input layer and output layer number of nodes
The present invention chooses opening price, closing price, highest price, lowest price and the exchange hand of stock as input feature vector;Under One day ups and downs situation is output.
S2.2, the determination of node in hidden layer
Node in hidden layer has larger impact to nicety of grading;If number of nodes is very little, network cannot learn well, need Increase frequency of training, trained precision also can be impacted;Conversely, net training time increases, network is easy over-fitting.
The empirical equation of BP neural network hidden layer number are as follows:
Wherein: nhFor node in hidden layer;N is input layer number;M is output layer number of nodes;A is between 0~10 Constant.In this example, input node 5, output node 1, it is 4~14 that range, which is arranged, in hidden layer.
S2.3, the determination of activation primitive
S2.4, the determination of total number of particles
S=n × q+q × m+q+m
Wherein: n is input layer number;Q is node in hidden layer;M is output layer number of nodes.N=5,4 in this example≤ Q≤14, m=1.
S3, in conjunction with the BP neural network model construction optimized based on TSP question particle swarm optimization algorithm (APSO), mistake Journey is as follows:
S3.1, initiation parameter: particle group velocity, position, inertial factor w, Studying factors c1,c2, maximum number of iterations, The learning rate η and aimed at precision g of neural network.
Particle swarm algorithm parameter c under normal circumstances1=c2=2, vmax=1, maximum number of iterations 100, learning rate is 0.1, aimed at precision 0.001, inertia weight w is the random value between 0~1.
Due to the parameter of particle swarm algorithm and the value of the neural network parameter prediction result last to algorithm have it is larger Influence, accurate result in order to obtain, parameter is analyzed in this example selection table 2.
Table 2
S3.2 calculates particle fitness.The present invention is using the mean square error of stock advance-decline prediction value and actual value as suitable Response function, formula are as follows:
Wherein, djFor desired output;yjFor reality output;M is number of samples.
It is optimal to find out each particle individual by S3.3.Local optimum is set by the optimal location under particle current iteration.? In iterative process, certain random variation is given to the position and speed of non-global optimum's particle, i.e., is chosen from population at random A particle is selected, then to this particle variations, formula is as follows:
f(r3> u) then xi k=r4x
Wherein r3、r4、r5、r6Indicate the equally distributed random number in 0~1, u, w are the constants between 0~1.It represents The position reinitialized, expression reinitialize speed, and k represents kth time iteration.
When the speed of particle is zero, mutation operation is carried out to its speed, so that the particle stagnated obtains new speed again Degree, in favor of finding optimal value, formula is as follows:
Wherein r7Indicate the equally distributed random number in 0~1, μ represents the direction of Particles Moving, and v indicates again initial Change speed.But work as random number r7When greater than 0.5, μ is -1, and otherwise μ is 1.
S3.4 finds out the global optimum of entire group.The mean square error for comparing each particle in population obtains the overall situation most It is excellent.
S3.5 updates particle rapidity, formula are as follows:
Wherein Vk、XkRespectively correspond speed of certain particle in kth time iteration, position, optimal location;Generation The global optimum position of table population in kth time iterative process, r1,r2∈ [0,1], is uniformly distributed at random.Update particle rapidity Consider whether updated particle rapidity is limiting in range, if V > Vmax, then V=Vmax;If V <-Vmax, then V=-Vmax, Otherwise constant.
S3.6 updates particle position, formula are as follows:
Xk+1=Xk+Vk+1
Wherein Vk、XkRespectively correspond speed of certain particle in kth time iteration, position.Particle position is calculated according to above-mentioned formula It sets, certain random variation is given to the position of non-optimal particle, i.e., pick out a particle x from population at randomi k, then it is right This particle random value, k represent kth time iteration, and population forgets the history desired positions of oneself and only remembers population most Best placement, so that population keeps population diversity.
S3.7 judges whether that reaching maximum cycle or fitness value reaches target value, if then continuing S3.8, otherwise Return to S3.2.
S3.8 exports optimal particle.Be up to requirement particle correspond BP neural network initial connection weight with Threshold value.
S3.9 inputs training data, training BP neural network.
S3.10, input test sample.
S3.11 finally exports prediction result, and is compared with actual value.
According to above-mentioned steps, this example obtains with APSO-BP prediction model when different parameters are arranged different pre- Survey precision.First three data of every Prediction of Stock Index performance of the model are finally obtained, as shown in table 3.
First three parameter combination of 3 ranking of table exports result
Apple Prediction of Stock Index precision average is 0.66 in table 3, and highest reaches 0.69, and parameter setting at this time is nerve Network training number is 1000 times, step-length 0.1, factor of momentum 0.9, inertia weight 0.8, and error precision 0.001 implies Layer neuronal quantity is 10.Amazon Prediction of Stock Index precision highest reaches 0.62, and parameter setting at this time is neural metwork training Number is 8000 times, step-length 0.1, factor of momentum 0.8, inertia weight 0.7, error precision 0.001, hidden layer neuron Quantity is 9.Microsoft's Prediction of Stock Index precision highest reaches 0.67, and parameter setting at this time is that neural metwork training number is 1000 Secondary, step-length 0.1, factor of momentum 0.3, inertia weight 0.8, error precision 0.001, hidden layer neuron quantity is 9.
By the above parameter setting, by taking the parameter of full accuracy as an example, traditional PS O-BP is respectively adopted to each branch stock and is calculated Method and BP algorithm are predicted, are obtained shown in the convergence process figure such as 3 (a) -3 (c) of mean square error.It can be seen from the figure that through After crossing APSO algorithm optimization BP neural network weight, the either decrease speed of mean square error gradient, or decline degree is all bright The aobvious traditional PS O algorithm optimization BP mind that is better than is by network.The indices of each branch stock are as shown in table 4.
4 prediction data of table compares
The precision of prediction average value of APSO-BP prediction model is 0.66 as can be seen from Table 4, is better than PSO- from precision of prediction BP prediction model and BP prediction model.Table 5 indicates that prediction model expends the time, and wherein the parameter setting of prediction model is all unified, Practicing number is 1000 times, step-length 0.1, factor of momentum 0.8, inertia weight 0.8, error precision 0.001, hidden layer nerve First quantity is 9.
PSO-BP prediction model is respectively adopted to time series and APSO-BP prediction model carries out algorithm model time-consuming ratio Compared with.
5 prediction model time-consuming of table compares (unit: second s)
Stock classification PSO-BP algorithm APSO-BP algorithm
Apple 8.31 7.32
Amazon 8.22 7.20
Microsoft 8.32 7.21
Average 8.28 7.24
As shown in table 5, APSO-BP prediction model it is average it is time-consuming be 7.24s, and traditional PSO-BP prediction model disappears Time-consuming is 8.28s, is primarily due to, and ability of searching optimum early period of APSO-BP prediction model is strong, and PSO-BP searching algorithm In contrast, it is easily trapped into local extremum, increases local searching times, convergence rate is slow, expends more times.

Claims (3)

1. the Prediction of Stock Price method based on APSO-BP neural network, comprising the following steps:
S1: obtaining stock certificate data, carries out Feature Selection and data prediction;
S2: determining the network structure of BP neural network, including input layer number, output layer number of nodes, node in hidden layer, swashs Function living and total number of particles;
S3 constructs the BP neural network model optimized based on APSO, specifically:
S3.1, initiation parameter: particle group velocity, position, inertial factor w, Studying factors c1,c2, maximum number of iterations, nerve The learning rate η and aimed at precision g of network;
S3.2 calculates particle and adapts to, using the mean square error of stock advance-decline prediction value and actual value as fitness function, formula It is as follows:
Wherein, djFor desired output;yjFor reality output;M is number of samples;
S3.3, it is optimal to find out each particle individual, sets local optimum for the optimal location under particle current iteration;
S3.4 finds out the global optimum of entire group, compares the mean square error of each particle in population, obtains global optimum;
S3.5 updates particle rapidity, formula are as follows:
Wherein Vk、XkRespectively correspond speed of certain particle in kth time iteration, position, optimal location;It represents The global optimum position of population, r when kth time iterative process1,r2∈ [0,1], is uniformly distributed at random;
If V > Vmax, then V=Vmax;If V <-Vmax, then V=-Vmax, otherwise constant;
S3.6 gives random variation for non-optimal particle, updates particle position:
Calculation formula are as follows: Xk+1=Xk+Vk+1
S3.7 judges whether that reaching maximum cycle or fitness value reaches target value, if then entering S3.8, otherwise returns S3.2;
S3.8 exports optimal particle, and the particle for being up to requirement corresponds the initial connection weight and threshold value of BP neural network;
S3.9 inputs training data, training BP neural network;
S3.10, input test sample;
S3.11 exports prediction result, and is compared with actual value.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized by: the feature of screening includes opening price, closing quotation in step S1 Valence, highest price, lowest price and exchange hand;The data prediction specifically: stock certificate data is normalized, is normalized Formula are as follows:
Wherein, certain time series x={ x1,x2,...,xn, xnormIt is the value after normalization, xminIt is minimum value in sequence, xmaxIt is Maximum value in sequence.
3. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized by: in step S2,
Input layer includes opening price, closing price, highest price, lowest price and the exchange hand of stock, the ups and downs that output layer is next day Situation;
Node in hidden layer is by formulaIt determines,
Wherein, q is node in hidden layer;N is input layer number;M is output layer number of nodes;A is the constant between 0~10;
The activation primitive uses
Total number of particles S=n × q+q × the m+q+m.
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Application publication date: 20190621