CN109829556A - A kind of output of cotton prediction technique and system - Google Patents
A kind of output of cotton prediction technique and system Download PDFInfo
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- CN109829556A CN109829556A CN201910113244.3A CN201910113244A CN109829556A CN 109829556 A CN109829556 A CN 109829556A CN 201910113244 A CN201910113244 A CN 201910113244A CN 109829556 A CN109829556 A CN 109829556A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of output of cotton prediction technique and systems.This method comprises: measuring leaf area index, chlorophyll test value and the Net Photosynthetic Rate of the blade of cotton plants to be predicted；The dry matter weight of the aerial part of the cotton plants to be predicted is measured using oven drying method；Obtain the expulsion rate of the cotton boll of the cotton plants to be predicted；It obtains the nitrogen fertilizer application amount in the planting soil of the cotton plants to be predicted, apply phosphate fertilizer amount, potassium application amount；Detect the content of organic matter of the planting soil of the cotton plants to be predicted；According to the leaf area index, the chlorophyll test value, the Net Photosynthetic Rate, the dry matter weight, the expulsion rate, the nitrogen fertilizer application amount, described apply phosphate fertilizer amount, the potassium application amount and the content of organic matter, by production forecast value optimal regression equation, output of cotton is predicted.That the present invention can carry out output of cotton is objective, accurately predict, shorten predetermined period, to instructing Cotton Production to be of great significance.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to output of cottons to predict field, more particularly to a kind of output of cotton prediction technique and system.
Background technique
For a long time, the production of Cotton in China shows unstability." insufficient supply " and " supply surplus " problem is again and again
Occur.The phenomenon that " selling cotton hardly possible " and " buying cotton hardly possible ", is alternately present, this makes Cotton Production fall into " supply falls short of demand " and " supply excessively
Ask " variation among.
The fluctuation and climate change of the cultivated area, price and per unit area yield of cotton, which have become, influences Cotton in China total output
Key factor, in addition to the decision behavior of the producer and consumer are affected by this larger, World cotton market and national economy are not
Balanced growth is also to be affected by this.Cotton monitoring and warning information is timely and accurately provided, output of cotton prediction is carried out, it can be effective
The industries such as Cotton Production, sale, storage, inlet and outlet and processing are instructed, cotton industry cyclic fluctuation is reduced, reduce cotton market
Risk, protect industrial chain on benefits of different parties, so that the sustainable development for Cotton Industry provides Informational support.
But the method for existing identification output of cotton influences the factor of yield, choosing generally by stepwise regression analysis
The independent variable parameter selected is mostly the organ weight of the cotton of picking time, such as the single plant blow-of-cottons number of picking time, Single boll weight etc., in this way
Identification mode need until cotton picking time carry out so that identification output of cotton period it is longer.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of output of cotton prediction technique and systems, in the Sheng Lei of Developmental of Cotton early period
Phase can objective to output of cotton progress, accurately be predicted, shorten predetermined period, to the timely management measure for adjusting field, refer to
Cotton Production is led to be of great significance.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides following schemes:
A kind of output of cotton prediction technique, which comprises
Measure the leaf area index, chlorophyll test value and Net Photosynthetic Rate of the blade of cotton plants to be predicted；
The dry matter weight of the aerial part of the cotton plants to be predicted is measured using oven drying method；
Obtain the expulsion rate of the cotton boll of the cotton plants to be predicted；
It obtains the nitrogen fertilizer application amount in the planting soil of the cotton plants to be predicted, apply phosphate fertilizer amount, potassium application amount；
Detect the content of organic matter of the planting soil of the cotton plants to be predicted；
According to the leaf area index, the chlorophyll test value, the Net Photosynthetic Rate, the dry matter weight, described fall off
Rate, the nitrogen fertilizer application amount, it is described apply phosphate fertilizer amount, the potassium application amount and the content of organic matter, most by production forecast value
Excellent regression equation predicts output of cotton.
Optionally, before the output of cotton prediction technique, further includes:
Obtain production forecast value regression equation；
The coefficient that the production forecast value regression equation is adjusted by variable punishment, obtains production forecast value optimum regression side
Journey.
Optionally, the leaf area index is measured using portable leaf area instrument.
Optionally, the chlorophyll test value is measured using SPAD chlorophyll meter.
Optionally, the Net Photosynthetic Rate is measured in preset measuring time using portable photosynthetic instrument.
Optionally, the content of organic matter is detected using potassium bichromate titrimetric method.
Optionally, the cotton plants to be predicted, which are in, contains flower bud phase, full-bloom stage, Shengjing Town or contains the wadding phase.
A kind of output of cotton forecasting system, the system comprises:
Blade measuring module, the leaf area index of the blade for measuring cotton plants to be predicted, chlorophyll test value and
Net Photosynthetic Rate；
Dry matter weight measures module, measures the dry of the aerial part of the cotton plants to be predicted for use oven drying method
Substance weight；
Expulsion rate obtains module, the expulsion rate of the cotton boll for obtaining the cotton plants to be predicted；
Dose obtains module, and the nitrogen fertilizer application amount in planting soil for obtaining the cotton plants to be predicted is applied
Phosphate fertilizer amount, potassium application amount；
Content of organic matter detection module contains for detecting the organic matter of planting soil of the cotton plants to be predicted
Amount；
Prediction module, for according to the leaf area index, the chlorophyll test value, the Net Photosynthetic Rate, the dry
Matter weight, the expulsion rate, the nitrogen fertilizer application amount, it is described apply phosphate fertilizer amount, the potassium application amount and the content of organic matter, pass through
Production forecast value optimal regression equation predicts output of cotton.
Optionally, further includes:
Production forecast value regression equation obtains module, for obtaining production forecast value regression equation；
Module is adjusted, for adjusting the coefficient of the production forecast value regression equation by variable punishment, it is pre- to obtain yield
Measured value optimal regression equation.
Compared with prior art, the present invention has following technical effect that leaf area index LAI, SPAD value, net photosynthesis speed
Rate, shedding rate, nitrogen fertilizer application amount, applies phosphate fertilizer amount, potassium application amount and soil organic matter content and is aerial part dry matter weight
With several variables of output of cotton close relation, the essence that prediction improves prediction is carried out by production forecast value optimal regression equation
Degree, operating method is convenient and efficient, and output of cotton can be carried out in the Sheng flower bud phase of Developmental of Cotton early period it is objective, accurately
Prediction, shortens predetermined period, to the timely management measure for adjusting field, Cotton Production is instructed to be of great significance.
Detailed description of the invention
It in order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, below will be to institute in embodiment
Attached drawing to be used is needed to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only some implementations of the invention
Example, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without any creative labor, can also be according to these attached drawings
Obtain other attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of output of cotton of embodiment of the present invention prediction technique；
Fig. 2 is the structural block diagram of output of cotton of embodiment of the present invention forecasting system.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of output of cotton prediction technique and systems, in the Sheng Lei of Developmental of Cotton early period
Phase can objective to output of cotton progress, accurately be predicted, shorten predetermined period, to the timely management measure for adjusting field, refer to
Cotton Production is led to be of great significance.
In order to make the foregoing objectives, features and advantages of the present invention clearer and more comprehensible, with reference to the accompanying drawing and specific real
Applying mode, the present invention is described in further detail.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of output of cotton prediction technique, the described method comprises the following steps:
Step 101: measuring leaf area index, chlorophyll test value and the net photosynthesis speed of the blade of cotton plants to be predicted
Rate.The cotton plants to be predicted, which are in, to be contained flower bud phase, full-bloom stage, Shengjing Town or contains the wadding phase.It is surveyed using portable leaf area instrument
The leaf area index is measured, the chlorophyll test value is measured using SPAD chlorophyll meter.Using the portable photosynthetic instrument measurement
The blade access time is the morning 9:00-11:30 of fine day, chooses growth unanimously and the good blade of light, each blade
Measurement 3-5 times, is averaged.
Step 102: the dry matter weight of the aerial part of the cotton plants to be predicted is measured using oven drying method.105
It weighs after finishing and dried at 80 DEG C at DEG C, obtains dry weight.
Step 103: obtaining the expulsion rate of the cotton boll of the cotton plants to be predicted.
Step 104: obtaining the nitrogen fertilizer application amount in the planting soil of the cotton plants to be predicted, apply phosphate fertilizer amount, apply potassium
Fertilizer amount.
Step 105: the content of organic matter of the planting soil of the detection cotton plants to be predicted.
The soil sample 0.3g that hole sizer was accurately weighed with assay balance, is put into test tube.5ml is accurately added with buret
0.8N K2Cr2O7, test tube is gently shaken, soil sample in pipe is dispersed.It is slow added into the dense H of 5ml2SO4, add a small leakage in test tube mouth
Bucket, to condense the steam steamed.Test tube is put into the oil bath pan for being preheated to 180~190 DEG C, when tube contents come to life
When, timing is boiled 5 minutes, and test tube is taken out, and cleans the outer oil liquid of pipe after cooling.Tube contents are washed into triangular flask with distilled water
In, total volume does not exceed 60~70ml in bottle, 2~3 drop Phen indicator is added, with 0.2N FeSO4Titration, solution
It is terminal that color is mutated brownish red by orange greening again.Blank control is done simultaneously, and quartz sand, which is added, prevents bumping.Then it counts
Calculate the content of organic matter for obtaining soil.
Further, the content of organic matter calculation formula of soil are as follows:
In formula: V0Titrate FeSO used when blank4Ml；
V- titrates FeSO used when soil sample4Ml；
K used in 5.0-2Cr2O7Ml；
0.8-K2Cr2O7The concentration of standard solution；
The grams of 0.003-1 milliequivalent carbon；
1.724- soil organism mean carbon content is 58%, and 100/58=1.724 should then be multiplied by being converted into organic matter；
1.1- correction coefficient.
Step 106: according to the leaf area index, the chlorophyll test value, the Net Photosynthetic Rate, the dry matter weight,
The expulsion rate, the nitrogen fertilizer application amount, it is described apply phosphate fertilizer amount, the potassium application amount and the content of organic matter, pass through yield
Predicted value optimal regression equation predicts output of cotton.
Y=235.66+319.24X1+398.51X2+543.79X3+958.73X4-153.3X5+7.87X6+6.39X7+
7.36X8+18.26X9.Calculate output of cotton predicted value Y.X1 is the leaf area index LAI of the blade in formula, is able to reflect
The upgrowth situation of plant population, size are directly closely related with yield height；X2For the SPAD value, the phase of chlorophyll is represented
To content, chlorophyll content height determines plant to the utilization rate of luminous energy；X3For the Net Photosynthetic Rate, plant light is embodied
The intensity of cooperation；X4For the dry matter weight of the above-ground plant parts；X5For the shedding rate, the height of shedding rate
The low yield that will have a direct impact on cotton；X6For the nitrogen fertilizer application amount in the crop field, X7Phosphate fertilizer amount, X are applied to be described8For the potassium application
Amount, fertilizer provide required nutrient for plant, improve soil property, increase soil fertility, be always increasing crop yield
Key factor；X9It is closely related with soil fertility level for the content of organic matter of the soil.
Before the output of cotton prediction technique, further includes:
Obtain production forecast value regression equation；
The coefficient that the production forecast value regression equation is adjusted by variable punishment, obtains production forecast value optimum regression side
Journey.
Specifically, passing through the leaf area index of various Instrument measurings, SPAD value, Net Photosynthetic Rate, stomatal conductance, intercellular two
Oxidation concentration of carbon, relative humidity, intensity of illumination, Dry matter weight of shoot, shedding rate, nitrogen fertilizer application amount, applies phosphorus at air themperature
Fertilizer amount, potassium application amount, the content of organic matter of soil, temperture of leaves, photochemical quenching coefficient, non-photochemical quenching coefficient, non-regulated
The quantum yield of energy dissipation and maximum Photochemical quantum yield Fv/Fm, totally 19 parameters.Using this 19 parameters as change certainly
Amount, using the actual per mu yield of cotton as dependent variable, using SPSS software, after format input data as required, through gradually
It returns, according to the size for being not introduced into variable F value, selection introduces variable and still rejects variable, it introduces after significant variable terminates,
It presses " OK " and obtains optimal regression equation.
As a result it filters out altogether and is respectively as follows: leaf area to significant relevant 9 independents variable of dependent variable, this 9 independents variable and refers to
Number LAI, SPAD values, Net Photosynthetic Rate, Dry matter weight of shoot, shedding rate, nitrogen fertilizer application amount, apply phosphate fertilizer amount, potassium application amount,
Soil organic matter content establishes the optimal regression equation of production forecast value.Optimal regression equation is Y=235.66+319.24X1+
398.51X2+543.79X3+958.73X4-153.3X5+7.87X6+6.39X7+7.36X8+18.26X9.The coefficient R of equation
=0.9973, F value=112.26, P value=0.0003, surplus standard deviation S=43.47, phase adjusted after being punished by variable
Relationship number Ra=0.9903, difference is extremely significant, coefficient of determination R2=0.98893, thus remaining path coefficient=0.10548 may be used
See, this 9 indexs have reached 98.893% to the influential effect of yield level distribution variation.Meanwhile the present invention in order to examine this 9
Representativeness and its relative importance of a parameter in this 19 parameters, on the basis of successive Regression, to this 9 individual event parameters
Path analysis has been carried out respectively, obtains path coefficient using correlation matrix.The results of path analysis shows 9 Characters on Yield water
The relative importance of flat comprehensive evaluation value is successively are as follows: Dry matter weight of shoot > Net Photosynthetic Rate > SPAD > LAI > cotton boll is de-
It falls rate > nitrogen fertilizer application amount > potassium application amount > and applies phosphate fertilizer amount > soil organic matter content.
The specific embodiment provided according to the present invention, the invention discloses following technical effects: leaf area index LAI,
SPAD value, Net Photosynthetic Rate, Dry matter weight of shoot, shedding rate and soil organic matter content are and output of cotton relationship
Close several variables carry out the precision that prediction improves prediction, operating method side by production forecast value optimal regression equation
Just quick, and the Sheng flower bud phase in Developmental of Cotton early period output of cotton can be carried out it is objective, accurately predict, shorten pre-
The period is surveyed, to the timely management measure for adjusting field, Cotton Production is instructed to be of great significance.
As shown in Fig. 2, the present invention also provides a kind of output of cotton forecasting system, the system comprises:
Blade measuring module 201, the leaf area index of the blade for measuring cotton plants to be predicted, chlorophyll test value with
And Net Photosynthetic Rate.
Dry matter weight measures module 202, for measuring the aerial part of the cotton plants to be predicted using oven drying method
Dry matter weight.
Expulsion rate obtains module 203, the expulsion rate of the cotton boll for obtaining the cotton plants to be predicted.
Dose obtains module 204, the nitrogen fertilizer application amount in planting soil for obtaining the cotton plants to be predicted,
Apply phosphate fertilizer amount, potassium application amount.
Content of organic matter detection module 205, the organic matter of the planting soil for detecting the cotton plants to be predicted
Content.
Prediction module 206, according to the leaf area index, the chlorophyll test value, the Net Photosynthetic Rate, the dry matter
Weight, the expulsion rate, the nitrogen fertilizer application amount, it is described apply phosphate fertilizer amount, the potassium application amount and the content of organic matter, pass through production
Predicted value optimal regression equation is measured, predicts output of cotton.
Further include:
Production forecast value regression equation obtains module, for obtaining production forecast value regression equation；
Module is adjusted, for adjusting the coefficient of the production forecast value regression equation by variable punishment, it is pre- to obtain yield
Measured value optimal regression equation.
Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, the highlights of each of the examples are with other
The difference of embodiment, the same or similar parts in each embodiment may refer to each other.For system disclosed in embodiment
For, since it is corresponded to the methods disclosed in the examples, so being described relatively simple, related place is said referring to method part
It is bright.
Used herein a specific example illustrates the principle and implementation of the invention, and above embodiments are said
It is bright to be merely used to help understand method and its core concept of the invention；At the same time, for those skilled in the art, foundation
Thought of the invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation manner and application range.In conclusion the content of the present specification is not
It is interpreted as limitation of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of output of cotton prediction technique, which is characterized in that the described method includes:
Measure the leaf area index, chlorophyll test value and Net Photosynthetic Rate of the blade of cotton plants to be predicted；
The dry matter weight of the aerial part of the cotton plants to be predicted is measured using oven drying method；
Obtain the expulsion rate of the cotton boll of the cotton plants to be predicted；
It obtains the nitrogen fertilizer application amount in the planting soil of the cotton plants to be predicted, apply phosphate fertilizer amount, potassium application amount；
Detect the content of organic matter of the planting soil of the cotton plants to be predicted；
According to the leaf area index, the chlorophyll test value, the Net Photosynthetic Rate, the dry matter weight, the expulsion rate, institute
State nitrogen fertilizer application amount, it is described apply phosphate fertilizer amount, the potassium application amount and the content of organic matter, pass through production forecast value optimum regression
Equation predicts output of cotton.
2. output of cotton prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the output of cotton prediction technique it
Before, further includes:
Obtain production forecast value regression equation；
The coefficient that the production forecast value regression equation is adjusted by variable punishment, obtains production forecast value optimal regression equation.
3. output of cotton prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that measure institute using portable leaf area instrument
State leaf area index.
4. output of cotton prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that using described in the measurement of SPAD chlorophyll meter
Chlorophyll test value.
5. output of cotton prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that surveyed using portable photosynthetic instrument default
Measure the time measurement Net Photosynthetic Rate.
6. output of cotton prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that detect institute using potassium bichromate titrimetric method
State the content of organic matter.
7. output of cotton prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the cotton plants to be predicted are in
It contains flower bud phase, full-bloom stage, Shengjing Town or contains the wadding phase.
8. a kind of output of cotton forecasting system, which is characterized in that the system comprises:
Blade measuring module, leaf area index, chlorophyll test value and the net light of the blade for measuring cotton plants to be predicted
Close rate；
Dry matter weight measures module, the dry matter of the aerial part for measuring the cotton plants to be predicted using oven drying method
Weight；
Expulsion rate obtains module, the expulsion rate of the cotton boll for obtaining the cotton plants to be predicted；
Dose obtains module, and the nitrogen fertilizer application amount in planting soil for obtaining the cotton plants to be predicted applies phosphate fertilizer
Amount, potassium application amount；
Content of organic matter detection module, the content of organic matter of the planting soil for detecting the cotton plants to be predicted；
Prediction module, for according to the leaf area index, the chlorophyll test value, the Net Photosynthetic Rate, the dry matter weight,
The expulsion rate, the nitrogen fertilizer application amount, it is described apply phosphate fertilizer amount, the potassium application amount and the content of organic matter, pass through yield
Predicted value optimal regression equation predicts output of cotton.
9. output of cotton forecasting system according to claim 8, which is characterized in that further include:
Production forecast value regression equation obtains module, for obtaining production forecast value regression equation；
Module is adjusted, for adjusting the coefficient of the production forecast value regression equation by variable punishment, obtains production forecast value
Optimal regression equation.
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| CN112226533A (en) * | 2020-11-24 | 2021-01-15 | 石河子大学 | Molecular marker related to cotton leaf rolling character and application thereof |
| CN112345695A (en) * | 2020-10-27 | 2021-02-09 | 湖南农业大学 | Method for measuring photosynthesis of plant population |
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Application publication date: 20190531 |