CN109740949A - A kind of balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization - Google Patents
A kind of balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
This application discloses a kind of balance of electric power and ener methods based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, comprising: obtains the curve that generates electricity each season typical day load curve and wind-force day in electric system；According to daily load curve, the peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval of daily load are divided；According to the curve that generates electricity wind-force day, the wind power output index in peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval is determined；According to wind power output index, each season power balance scene, peak regulation balance scene and electric quantity balancing scene are chosen, and calculates separately scene probability；According to power balance scene, peak regulation balance scene and electric quantity balancing scene, scene composition probability is calculated；According to wind-powered electricity generation scene composition and its probability distribution, the calculating of randomization balance of electric power and ener is carried out.In the application, when carrying out the calculating of randomization balance of electric power and ener, different wind power plants are chosen different power generation scene types and are combined, and obtain scene collection and its probability distribution, finally carry out the calculating of randomization balance of electric power and ener.
Description
Technical field
This application involves Power System Planning technical field more particularly to a kind of electricity based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization
Power electric quantity balancing method.
Background technique
Under electricity market reform, the boundary condition of the Electric Power Network Plannings such as power supply, load changes, and wind-powered electricity generation scale quickly increases
It is long.Electric Power Network Planning is also known as transmission system planning, determines when, where invests to build what type of transmission line of electricity and its feeder number.
Balance of electric power and ener is an element task in Electric Power Network Planning, and can the hair power supply capacity that be used to measure electric system meet
Workload demand, the foundation that calculated result will be formulated as Electric Power Network Planning
For area power grid, supply district is little, and main force's power supply is few in power grid, manually uses simple table
Method can meet demand to representative month progress balance of electric power and ener calculating.For biggish network system,
Since power grid interior power is numerous, need to complete the EQUILIBRIUM CALCULATION FOR PROCESS of quantity of electricity by computer program.Above-mentioned calculating quantity of electricity
When balance, what is generallyd use in power grid is the planing method of " certainty ", i.e., in relatively determining load, power supply and its power producing characteristics
In the case where, different scenes, which are planned, to be considered to load, power supply respectively.
After the renewable energy such as wind-powered electricity generation, the photovoltaic of large capacity access power grid, the uncertainty of power supply power output is greatly increased,
Above-mentioned " certainty " planing method can not consider therefore the uncertain factors such as above-mentioned renewable energy, load aspect need to set
Count it is a kind of it can be considered that in terms of renewable energy, load etc. uncertain factors balance of electric power and ener method.
Summary of the invention
This application provides a kind of balance of electric power and ener methods based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, to solve existing skill
The technical issues of can not considering the uncertain factors such as renewable energy, load aspect in art in Electric Power Network Planning.
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem, the embodiment of the present application discloses following technical solution:
The embodiment of the present application discloses a kind of balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, the side
Method includes:
Obtain the curve that generates electricity each season typical day load curve and wind-force day in electric system；
According to the daily load curve, the peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval of daily load are divided；
According to the curve that generates electricity the wind-force day, determine that the wind-powered electricity generation in the peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval goes out
Power index, the wind power output index include: a day peak period minimum load, per day power output, day maximum peak regulation demand, day most
Small peak regulation demand, peak period day average output, day low-valley interval average output and day waist lotus period average output；
According to the peak period day minimum load and per day power output, each season power balance scene is chosen, calculates field
Scape probability；
According to the day maximum peak regulation demand and day minimum peak regulation demand, each Seasonal Peak Shaving balance scene is chosen, field is calculated
Scape probability；
According to the peak period day average output, day low-valley interval average output and day waist lotus period average output, choosing
Each season electric quantity balancing scene is taken, scene probability is calculated；
According to the power balance scene, peak regulation balance scene and electric quantity balancing scene, scene composition probability is calculated；
According to wind-powered electricity generation scene composition and scene composition probability distribution, the calculating of randomization balance of electric power and ener is carried out
Optionally, described according in the above-mentioned balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization
Daily load curve determines the peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval of daily load, comprising:
The peak period T1For higher than daily load peak value ρpPeriod again, it is expressed as T1={ t1|PL(t1)≥ρp·
PLmax}；
The low-valley interval T2For lower than daily load valley ρbPeriod again, it is expressed as T2={ t2|PL(t2)≤ρb·
PLmin}；
The waist lotus period T3T is subtracted for whole periods1And T2, it is expressed as T3={ t3|ρb·PLmin< PL(t3) < ρp·
PLmax}。
Optionally, in the above-mentioned balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, the ρpFor 0.9-
0.97, the ρbFor 1.05-1.2.
Optionally, high according to the day in the above-mentioned balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization
Peak period minimum load and per day power output choose each season power balance scene, comprising:
The power generation of wind-force day described in each season curve d is pressed into the peak period day minimum load PHminIt sorts from small to large,
Obtain order statistic；
The confidence level α of default peak period day minimum load obtains the first wind-force day power generation collection of curves PWΩ1, indicate
Are as follows:
By the collection of curves P that generates electricity the first wind-force dayWΩ1In per day power output minimum PHmin(d) power generation curve is set as
Pμ1；
The confidence level γ for presetting per day power output obtains the second wind-force day power generation collection of curves PW′Ω1, indicate are as follows:
By the collection of curves P ' that generates electricity the second wind-force dayWΩ1In per day power output PDaveMaximum power generation curve is set as Pμ1；
According to the Pμ1And Pμ1, obtain each season power balance scene PW1, indicate are as follows:
Optionally, in the above-mentioned balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, most according to the day
Big peak regulation demand and day minimum peak regulation demand choose each Seasonal Peak Shaving balance scene, comprising:
The power generation of wind-force day described in each season curve d is pressed into the day maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxIt sorts, obtains from small to large
To order statistic；
The confidence level γ of default day maximum peak regulation demand obtains third wind-force day power generation collection of curves PWΩ2, indicate are as follows:
By the collection of curves P that generates electricity the third wind-force dayWΩ2Sino-Japan minimum peak regulation demand Δ PHLminMaximum power generation curve
It is set as Pμ2；
According to constraint condition Δ PHLmin>=0, obtain the 4th wind-force day power generation collection of curves P 'WΩ2, indicate are as follows:
P′WΩ2={ PW(d)|ΔPHLmin(d)≥0,PW(d)∈PWΩ2}
By the collection of curves P ' that generates electricity the 4th wind-force dayWΩ2Sino-Japan maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxMaximum power generation curve
It is set as Pν2；
According to the Pμ2And Pν2, obtain each Seasonal Peak Shaving balance scene PW2, indicate are as follows:
Optionally, high according to the day in the above-mentioned balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization
Peak period average output, day low-valley interval average output and day waist lotus period average output, choose each season electric quantity balancing scene,
Include:
Count peak period average output P in the power generation of wind-force day described in each season curveHave, waist lotus period average output
PMaveAnd low-valley interval average output PLaveMaximum value and minimum value, obtain taking for each season electric quantity balancing scene characteristic index
It is worth section UH, UM, UL；
By the PHave, PMave, PLaveIt is respectively divided into n and adheres to section separately；
Deduct power balance scene PW1Scene P is balanced with peak regulationW2, according to the PHave、PHaveAnd PLaveAdhere to section separately,
Power generation of each season wind-force day curve is divided into n3A scene class；
Each scene class set is set as Pxyz, indicate are as follows:
Pxyz={ PW(d)|PHave(d)∈UHx,PMave(d)∈UMy,PLave(d)∈ULzX, y, z=1,2 ... n.
Optionally, in the above-mentioned balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, the method is also wrapped
It includes:
It calculates residue in wind-force day power generation curve d and class and generates electricity curve q about day maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxMost with day
Small peak regulation demand Δ PHLminAverage weighted Euler's distance Sxyz(d), it indicates are as follows:
In formula, kαFor day maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxWeight；
Obtain Sxyz(d) the smallest power generation curve is scene class PxyzTypical wind day generate electricity curve, be set as
Described in amendmentGenerated energy.
Optionally, in the above-mentioned balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, described in amendment's
Generated energy, comprising:
Calculate scene class PxyzWind-force total power generation Exyz, indicate are as follows:
In formula, PW(dt) it is scene class PxyzGenerate electricity middle wind-force day t hours power outputs of curve d；
Calculate scene class PxyzGenerate electricity typical wind day curveExpectation generated energyIt indicates are as follows:
In formula,For the curve that generates electricity typical wind dayIn t hours power outputs；
According to ExyzWithAmendment electricity δ E is obtained, is indicated are as follows:
It is calculated according to the δ EThe power output correction value δ P of each hour is indicated are as follows:
Calculate scene class PxyzGenerate electricity revised typical wind day curveIt indicates are as follows:
In formula,It indicatesT hours power generating values.
Optionally, in the above-mentioned balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, by the PHave,
PHave, PLaveIt is respectively divided into n and adheres to section separately, comprising: by the PHave, PMave, PLaveRespectively according to 25%, 50%, 25%
Ratio be divided into 3 sections from small to large.
Compared with prior art, the application has the beneficial effect that
This application provides a kind of balance of electric power and ener methods based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, this method comprises:
Obtain the curve that generates electricity each season typical day load curve and wind-force day in electric system；According to the daily load curve, day is divided
Peak period, waist lotus period and the low-valley interval of load；According to the curve that generates electricity the wind-force day, the peak period, waist are determined
Wind power output index in lotus period and low-valley interval, the wind power output index include: a day peak period minimum load, put down day
Power output, day maximum peak regulation demand, day minimum peak regulation demand, peak period day average output, day low-valley interval average output and
Day waist lotus period average output；According to the peak period day minimum load and per day power output, each season power balance is chosen
Scene calculates scene probability；According to the day maximum peak regulation demand and day minimum peak regulation demand, each Seasonal Peak Shaving balanced field is chosen
Scape calculates scene probability；It is average according to the peak period day average output, day low-valley interval average output and waist lotus period day
Power output chooses each season electric quantity balancing scene, calculates scene probability；According to the power balance scene, peak regulation balance scene and
Electric quantity balancing scene calculates scene composition probability；According to wind-powered electricity generation scene composition and scene composition probability distribution, randomization electricity is carried out
Power electric quantity balancing calculates.In balance of electric power and ener method provided by the present application based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, carrying out
When randomization balance of electric power and ener calculates, different wind power plants are chosen different power generation scene types and are combined, and scene collection is obtained
And its probability distribution, finally carry out the calculating of randomization balance of electric power and ener.
It should be understood that above general description and following detailed description be only it is exemplary and explanatory, not
The application can be limited.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to illustrate more clearly of the technical solution of the application, letter will be made to attached drawing needed in the embodiment below
Singly introduce, it should be apparent that, for those of ordinary skills, without creative efforts, also
Other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without any creative labor.
Fig. 1 is a kind of balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Flow diagram；
Fig. 2 is the Time segments division figure of daily load curve provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is the flow diagram of step S400 provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 4 is the flow diagram of step S500 provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 5 is the flow diagram of step S600 provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
In order to make those skilled in the art better understand the technical solutions in the application, below in conjunction with the application reality
The attached drawing in example is applied, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the application is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described implementation
Example is only some embodiments of the present application, rather than whole embodiments.Based on the embodiment in the application, the common skill in this field
The application protection all should belong in art personnel every other embodiment obtained without making creative work
Range.
Referring to Fig. 1, for a kind of balance of electric power and ener based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization provided in an embodiment of the present invention
The flow diagram of method.In conjunction with Fig. 1, the balance of electric power and ener method provided by the present application based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization
The following steps are included:
Step S100: the curve that generates electricity each season typical day load curve and wind-force day in electric system is obtained；
Based on annual 8760 hours load datas, whole year is divided into spring, summer, autumn, four seasons of winter, wherein 3,4,5
Month be spring, 6,7, August be summer, 9,10, November be autumn, 12,1,2 months be winter.Each season chooses corresponding typical case
Daily load curve.
Step S200: according to the daily load curve, the peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval of daily load are divided；
It referring to fig. 2, is the Time segments division figure of daily load curve provided in an embodiment of the present invention.As shown in Figure 2, daily load is bent
The peak period of line, waist lotus period, low-valley interval division principle are as follows:
The peak period T1For higher than daily load peak value ρpPeriod again, it is expressed as T1={ t1|PL(t1)≥ρp·
PLmax}；The low-valley interval T2For lower than daily load valley ρbPeriod again, it is expressed as T2={ t2|PL(t2)≤ρb·PLmin}；
The waist lotus period T3T is subtracted for whole periods1And T2, it is expressed as T3={ t3|ρb·PLmin< PL(t3) < ρp·PLmax}。
In the application, above-mentioned ρpSelection range is 0.9-0.97, ρbSelection range is 1.05-1.2.That is, being higher than day
Load peak certain proportion (ρp) period be peak period, be lower than daily load valley certain multiple (ρb) period be low ebb when
Section, in addition to other of peak period and low-valley interval period are the waist lotus period.
Step S300: it according to the curve that generates electricity the wind-force day, determines in the peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval
Wind power output index, the wind power output index include: a day peak period minimum load, it is per day power output, day maximum peak regulation
Demand, day minimum peak regulation demand, peak period day average output, day low-valley interval average output and waist lotus period day average out
Power；
Above-mentioned wind power output index specific formula for calculation is as follows:
Day peak period minimum load, the minimum value of this day load peak period intermittence power supply power output, the index energy body
The volume replacement benefit of existing intermittence power supply power generation, largely influences the power balance of system, in the present invention as choosing
The main feature index of power balance scene is taken, formula is expressed as PHmin=min { PL(t)|t∈T1}；
Day peak period maximum output, the maximum value of this day load peak period intermittence power supply power output, formula indicate are as follows:
PHmax=max { PL(t)|t∈T1}；
Day peak period average output, the average value of this day load peak period intermittence power supply power output, the index are larger
The generated energy of daily load peak period intermittence power supply is influenced in degree, formula indicates are as follows:
Day low-valley interval minimum load, the minimum value of this day load valley period intermittence power supply power output, formula indicate are as follows:
PLmin=min { PL(t)|t∈T2}；
Day low-valley interval maximum output, the maximum value of this day load valley period intermittence power supply power output, between significantly affecting
Having a rest property power supply abandons electricity level, and formula indicates are as follows: PLmax=max { PL(t)|t∈T2}；
Day low-valley interval average output, the average value of this day load valley period intermittence power supply power output, the index are larger
The generated energy of daily load low-valley interval intermittence power supply is influenced in degree, formula indicates are as follows:
Day waist lotus period minimum load, the minimum value of this day waist lotus period intermittence power supply power output, formula indicate are as follows: PMmin
=min { PL(t)|t∈T3}；
Day waist lotus period maximum output, the maximum value of this day waist lotus period intermittence power supply power output, formula are expressed as PMmax
=max { PL(t)|t∈T3}；
Day waist lotus period average output, the average value of this day waist lotus period intermittence power supply power output, the index is largely
The upper generated energy for influencing waist lotus period intermittence power supply, formula indicate are as follows:
Per day power output, i.e., the average value value of intermittent power supply power output, formula indicate in one day are as follows:
Day maximum peak regulation demand, the i.e. difference of low-valley interval maximum output and peak period minimum load；The index can embody
The anti-tune peak character of wind-power electricity generation largely influences the peak regulation balance of system, in the present invention as selection peak regulation balance
The main feature index of scene, formula are expressed as Δ PHLmax=PLmax-PHmin；
Day minimum peak regulation demand, the i.e. difference of low-valley interval minimum load and peak period maximum output, with day maximum peak regulation
Demand is matched as the constraint condition for choosing peak regulation balance scene, and formula indicates are as follows: Δ PHLmin=PLmin-PHmax；
Since wind power output historical data amount is very huge, the force data that goes out of every day cannot be included in balance of electric power and ener
It is calculated, it is necessary to carry out scene screening and cluster.Fully considering wind-powered electricity generation uncertainty, fluctuation, reversed peak regulation, region
Property, seasonal variation the features such as on the basis of, the application by following principle carry out scene screening.
Step S400: according to the peak period day minimum load and per day power output, each season power balance field is chosen
Scape, and calculate its scene probability；
It is the flow diagram of step S400 provided in an embodiment of the present invention referring to Fig. 3, in conjunction with Fig. 3, screens each season electricity
The step of dynamic balance scene, is as follows:
Step S401: the power generation of wind-force day described in each season curve d is pressed into the peak period day minimum load PHminFrom small
To big sequence, order statistic is obtained；
Step S402: the confidence level α of default peak period day minimum load, obtain the first wind-force day power generation collection of curves
PWΩ1, indicate are as follows:
Given PHminConfidence level α, filter out wind-force day power generation curve PW(d) (its peak period minimum load is PHmin
(d)), make to be more than that the probability of α firmly believes the wind-force day in season power generation curve peak period minimum load not less than PHmin(d), remember
The wind-force day power generation collection of curves for meeting condition is PWΩ1。
Step S403: by the collection of curves P that generates electricity the first wind-force dayWΩ1In per day power output minimum PHmin(d) power generation
Curve is set as Pμ1；
Step S404: presetting the confidence level γ of per day power output, obtains the second wind-force day power generation collection of curves P 'WΩ1, table
It is shown as:
The confidence level γ for giving per day power output, in set PWΩ1In filter out wind-force day power generation curve PW(d), with super
The probability γ crossed firmly believes the average output of the wind-force day in season power generation curve not less than PDave(d), the wind-force day of sufficient condition is write all over
Power generation collection of curves is P 'WΩ1。
Step S405: by the collection of curves P ' that generates electricity the second wind-force dayWΩ1In per day power output PDaveMaximum power generation is bent
Line is set as Pμ1；
Step S406: according to the Pμ1And Pμ1, obtain each season power balance scene PW1, indicate are as follows:
Meeting PHminConfidence level α and PDaveIn confidence level γ requirement, choose closest to per day power output confidence water
The power generation curve of flat γ is boundary power balance scene；When not being able to satisfy confidence level γ requirement, then per day power output is taken most
Small power generation curve is power balance scene, the scene probability of each season power balance scene are as follows: 1/N, N each season includes
Generate electricity wind-force day curve quantity.
Step S500: according to the day maximum peak regulation demand and day minimum peak regulation demand, each Seasonal Peak Shaving balanced field is chosen
Scape, and calculate its scene probability；
Referring to fig. 4, each season is screened as shown in Figure 4 for the flow diagram of step S500 provided in an embodiment of the present invention
It is as follows that peak regulation balances the step of scene:
Step S501: the power generation of wind-force day described in each season curve d is pressed into the day maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxFrom it is small to
Big sequence, obtains order statistic；
Step S502: the confidence level γ of default day maximum peak regulation demand, obtain third wind-force day power generation collection of curves
PWΩ2, indicate are as follows:
Given Δ PHLmaxConfidence level γ, filter out wind-force day power generation curve PW(d) (day maximum peak regulation demand is Δ
PHLmax(d)), make to be more than that the probability of γ firmly believes season Δ PHLmaxNo more than Δ PHLmax(d), the wind-force day of sufficient condition is write all over
Power generation collection of curves is PWΩ2。
Step S503: by the collection of curves P that generates electricity the third wind-force dayWΩ2Sino-Japan minimum peak regulation demand Δ PHLminIt is maximum
Power generation curve is set as Pμ2；
Step S504: according to constraint condition Δ PHLmin>=0, obtain the 4th wind-force day power generation collection of curves P 'WΩ2, indicate
Are as follows: P 'WΩ2={ PW(d)|ΔPHLmin(d)≥0,PW(d)∈PWΩ2}；
To fully ensure that peak regulation balances the anti-tune peak character of scene, with Δ PHLmin>=0 is constraint condition from PWΩ2It filters out
Generate electricity wind-force day curve PW(d), the wind-force day power generation collection of curves for writing sufficient condition all over is P 'WΩ2。
Step S505: by the collection of curves P ' that generates electricity the 4th wind-force dayWΩ2Sino-Japan maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxIt is maximum
Power generation curve be set as Pν2；
Step S506: according to the Pμ2And Pν2, obtain each Seasonal Peak Shaving balance scene PW2, indicate are as follows:
If P 'WΩ2It is not empty set, that is, exists and meet Δ PHLmaxConfidence level γ and Δ PHLminThe wind-force day power generation of >=0 constraint
Curve then chooses Δ P whereinHLmaxMaximum power generation curve is that peak regulation balances scene, this scene can reflect wind-powered electricity generation to system tune
Peak balances most extreme influence；If P 'WΩ2For empty set, i.e. PWΩ2In all wind-force days power generation curves be not able to satisfy Δ PHLmin≥0
Constraint, then take Δ PHLminMaximum wind-force day power generation curve is that peak regulation balances scene, close to greatest extent to demodulate peak, each season
The scene probability of power balance scene are as follows: 1/N, N are the curve quantity that generates electricity the wind-force day for each season including.
Step S600: flat according to the peak period day average output, day low-valley interval average output and waist lotus period day
It contributes, chooses each season electric quantity balancing scene, and calculate its scene probability；
It is the flow diagram of step S600 provided in an embodiment of the present invention referring to Fig. 5, in conjunction with Fig. 5, screens each season electricity
The step of amount balance scene, is as follows:
Step S601: peak period average output P in the power generation of wind-force day described in each season curve is countedHave, the waist lotus period
Average output PMaveAnd low-valley interval average output PLaveMaximum value and minimum value, obtain each season electric quantity balancing scene characteristic
The value interval U of indexH, UM, UL；
Step S602: by the PHave, PMave, PLaveIt is respectively divided into n and adheres to section separately；
Since wind power output is horizontal on the electric quantity balancing of system influence difference, this hair in the height power output of different load period
It is bright by PHave、PMave、PLaveThree indexs are divided into n section, U from small to large in proportionH1、UH2…UHn, UM1、UM2…UMn,
UL1、UL2…ULn.Section can be divided with equal proportion, also can according to different section wind power output levels to system influence difference draw
Point；Interval division is too many simultaneously, and calculation amount is too big, loses the meaning of cluster, and interval division is very little, and it is accurate to lose cluster
Property.After comprehensively considering, each index is divided into 3 sections according to 25%, 50%, 25% ratio from small to large in the present invention,
Numerical results show that the cluster scene generated by this division mode under the premise of guaranteeing higher computational accuracy, significantly subtracts
Balance of electric power and ener workload is lacked.
Step S603: power balance scene P is deductedW1Scene P is balanced with peak regulationW2, according to the PHave、PMaveAnd PLave's
It adheres to section separately, power generation of each season wind-force day curve is divided into n3A scene class；
n3For maximum scene number, the practical scene number that clusters is generally less than n3。
Step S604: each scene class set is set as Pxyz, indicate are as follows:
Pxyz={ PW(d)|PHave(d)∈UHx,PMave(d)∈UMy,PLave(d)∈ULzX, y, z=1,2 ... n.
If the curve number of every class is Nxyz, all kinds of scene probability is pxyz, then each season electric quantity balancing scene probability indicates
Are as follows:
In order to further optimize the above technical scheme, the electric power electricity provided by the present application based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization
Measure balance method, further includes:
It calculates residue in wind-force day power generation curve d and class and generates electricity curve q about day maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxMost with day
Small peak regulation demand Δ PHLminAverage weighted Euler's distance Sxyz(d), it indicates are as follows:
In formula, kαFor day maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxWeight；Obtain Sxyz(d) the smallest power generation curve is scene class
PxyzTypical wind day generate electricity curve, be set asDescribed in amendmentGenerated energy.
In the case where guaranteeing that revised each moment power generating value of power generation curve does not spill over scene class wind power output range,
It needs modified electricity to divide whole day, i.e., by entire curve longitudinal translation, does not change the tune of typical wind day power generation curve as far as possible
Peak demand.
Makeover process is as follows:
Calculate scene class PxyzWind-force total power generation Exyz, indicate are as follows:
In formula, PW(dt) it is scene class PxyzGenerate electricity middle wind-force day t hours power outputs of curve d；
Calculate scene class PxyzGenerate electricity typical wind day curveExpectation generated energyIt indicates are as follows:
In formula,For the curve that generates electricity typical wind dayIn t hours power outputs；
According to ExyzWithAmendment electricity δ E is obtained, is indicated are as follows:
It is calculated according to the δ EThe power output correction value δ P of each hour is indicated are as follows:
Calculate scene class PxyzGenerate electricity revised typical wind day curveIt indicates are as follows:
In formula,It indicatesT hours power generating values.
After amendment, if certain moment wind power output overflows scene class wind power output range, moment spilling electricity is divided again
To other moment.
Step S700: according to the power balance scene, peak regulation balance scene and electric quantity balancing scene, scene composition is calculated
Probability；
Step S800: according to wind-powered electricity generation scene composition and scene composition probability distribution, randomization balance of electric power and ener meter is carried out
It calculates.
The power balance scene of different wind power plants under same unified power system, peak regulation balance are obtained according to screening in the above process
Scene and several electric quantity balancing scenes carry out permutation and combination, obtain wind-powered electricity generation day power generation scene collection and its probability distribution, finally carry out
Randomization balance of electric power and ener calculates.
In balance of electric power and ener method provided by the present application based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, randomization electric power is carried out
When electric quantity balancing calculates, different wind power plants choose different wind-power electricity generation scene types, obtain scene collection and its probability distribution, most
The calculating of randomization balance of electric power and ener is carried out afterwards.For the deficiency of " certainty " planing method, different type wind-powered electricity generation is fully considered
The combination for scene of contributing carries out randomization balance of electric power and ener, and the analysis and research for electric system after wind-electricity integration provide reference,
There is construction meaning to Power System Planning, construction and operation containing wind-powered electricity generation.
Since embodiment of above is that reference combination is illustrated on other modes, have between different embodiments
There is identical part, identical, similar part may refer to each other between each embodiment in this specification.Herein no longer in detail
It illustrates.
It should be noted that in the present specification, the relational terms of such as " first " and " second " or the like are used merely to
It distinguishes one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and not necessarily requires or imply these entities or operation
Between there are any this actual relationship or sequences.Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or its any other variant are intended to
Cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that the circuit structure, article or the equipment that include a series of elements not only include those
Element, but also including other elements that are not explicitly listed, or further include for this circuit structure, article or equipment
Intrinsic element.In the absence of more restrictions, the element for thering is sentence "including a ..." to limit, it is not excluded that
There is also other identical elements in circuit structure, article or equipment including the element.
Those skilled in the art will readily occur to its of the application after considering specification and practicing the disclosure invented here
His embodiment.This application is intended to cover any variations, uses, or adaptations of the invention, these modifications, purposes or
Person's adaptive change follows the general principle of the application and including the undocumented common knowledge in the art of the application
Or conventional techniques.The description and examples are only to be considered as illustrative, and the true scope and spirit of the application are wanted by right
The content asked is pointed out.
Above-described the application embodiment does not constitute the restriction to the application protection scope.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of balance of electric power and ener method based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, which is characterized in that the described method includes:
Obtain the curve that generates electricity each season typical day load curve and wind-force day in electric system；
According to the daily load curve, the peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval of daily load are divided；
According to the curve that generates electricity the wind-force day, determine that the wind power output in the peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval refers to
Mark, the wind power output index include: a day peak period minimum load, per day power output, day maximum peak regulation demand, day most ditty
Peak demand, peak period day average output, day low-valley interval average output and day waist lotus period average output；
According to the peak period day minimum load and per day power output, each season power balance scene is chosen, it is general to calculate scene
Rate；
According to the day maximum peak regulation demand and day minimum peak regulation demand, each Seasonal Peak Shaving balance scene is chosen, it is general to calculate scene
Rate；
According to the peak period day average output, day low-valley interval average output and day waist lotus period average output, choose each
Season electric quantity balancing scene calculates scene probability；
According to the power balance scene, peak regulation balance scene and electric quantity balancing scene, scene composition probability is calculated；
According to wind-powered electricity generation scene composition and scene composition probability distribution, the calculating of randomization balance of electric power and ener is carried out.
2. the balance of electric power and ener method according to claim 1 based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, which is characterized in that
According to the daily load curve, the peak period, waist lotus period and low-valley interval of daily load are determined, comprising:
The peak period T1For higher than daily load peak value ρpPeriod again, it is expressed as T1={ t1|PL(t1)≥ρp·PLmax}；
The low-valley interval T2For lower than daily load valley ρbPeriod again, it is expressed as T2={ t2|PL(t2)≤ρb·PLmin}；
The waist lotus period T3T is subtracted for whole periods1And T2, it is expressed as T3={ t3|ρb·PLmin< PL(t3) < ρp·PLmax}。
3. the balance of electric power and ener method according to claim 2 based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, which is characterized in that
The ρpFor 0.9-0.97, the ρbFor 1.05-1.2.
4. the balance of electric power and ener method according to claim 1 based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, which is characterized in that
According to the peak period day minimum load and per day power output, each season power balance scene is chosen, comprising:
The power generation of wind-force day described in each season curve d is pressed into the peak period day minimum load PHminIt sorts, obtains secondary from small to large
Sequence statistic；
The confidence level α of default peak period day minimum load obtains the first wind-force day power generation collection of curves PWΩ1, indicate are as follows:
By the collection of curves P that generates electricity the first wind-force dayWΩ1In per day power output minimum PHmin(d) power generation curve is set as Pμ1；
The confidence level γ for presetting per day power output obtains the second wind-force day power generation collection of curves P 'WΩ1, indicate are as follows:
By the collection of curves P ' that generates electricity the second wind-force dayWΩ1In per day power output PDaveMaximum power generation curve is set as Pμ1；
According to the Pμ1And Pμ1, obtain each season power balance scene PW1, indicate are as follows:
5. the balance of electric power and ener method according to claim 1 based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, which is characterized in that
According to the day maximum peak regulation demand and day minimum peak regulation demand, each Seasonal Peak Shaving balance scene is chosen, comprising:
The power generation of wind-force day described in each season curve d is pressed into the day maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxIt sorts, obtains secondary from small to large
Sequence statistic；
The confidence level γ of default day maximum peak regulation demand obtains third wind-force day power generation collection of curves PWΩ2, indicate are as follows:
By the collection of curves P that generates electricity the third wind-force dayWΩ2Sino-Japan minimum peak regulation demand Δ PHLminMaximum power generation curve is set as
Pμ2；
According to constraint condition Δ PHLmin>=0, obtain the 4th wind-force day power generation collection of curves P 'WΩ2, indicate are as follows:
P′WΩ2={ PW(d)|ΔPHLmin(d)≥0,PW(d)∈PWΩ2}
By the collection of curves P ' that generates electricity the 4th wind-force dayWΩ2Sino-Japan maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxMaximum power generation curve is set as
Pν2；
According to the Pμ2And Pν2, obtain each Seasonal Peak Shaving balance scene PW2, indicate are as follows:
6. the balance of electric power and ener method according to claim 1 based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, which is characterized in that
According to the peak period day average output, day low-valley interval average output and day waist lotus period average output, each season is chosen
Electric quantity balancing scene, comprising:
Count peak period average output P in the power generation of wind-force day described in each season curveHave, waist lotus period average output PMaveAnd
Low-valley interval average output PLaveMaximum value and minimum value, obtain the value interval of each season electric quantity balancing scene characteristic index
UH, UM, UL；
By the PHave, PMave, PLaveIt is respectively divided into n and adheres to section separately；
Deduct power balance scene PW1Scene P is balanced with peak regulationW2, according to the PHave、PMaveAnd PLaveAdhere to section separately, will be each
Wind-force day in season power generation curve is divided into n3A scene class；
Each scene class set is set as Pxyz, indicate are as follows:
Pxyz={ PW(d)|PHave(d)∈UHx,PMave(d)∈UMy,PLave(d)∈ULzX, y, z=1,2 ... n.
7. the balance of electric power and ener method according to claim 6 based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, which is characterized in that
The method also includes:
It calculates residue in wind-force day power generation curve d and class and generates electricity curve q about day maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxWith day most ditty
Peak demand Δ PHLminAverage weighted Euler's distance Sxyz(d), it indicates are as follows:
In formula, kαFor day maximum peak regulation demand Δ PHLmaxWeight；
Obtain Sxyz(d) the smallest power generation curve is scene class PxyzTypical wind day generate electricity curve, be set as
Described in amendmentGenerated energy.
8. the balance of electric power and ener method according to claim 6 based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, which is characterized in that
Described in amendmentGenerated energy, comprising:
Calculate scene class PxyzWind-force total power generation Exyz, indicate are as follows:
In formula, PW(dt) it is scene class PxyzGenerate electricity middle wind-force day t hours power outputs of curve d；
Calculate scene class PxyzGenerate electricity typical wind day curveExpectation generated energyIt indicates are as follows:
In formula,For the curve that generates electricity typical wind dayIn t hours power outputs；
According to ExyzWithAmendment electricity δ E is obtained, is indicated are as follows:
It is calculated according to the δ EThe power output correction value δ P of each hour is indicated are as follows:
Calculate scene class PxyzGenerate electricity revised typical wind day curveIt indicates are as follows:
In formula,It indicatesT hours power generating values.
9. the balance of electric power and ener method according to claim 6 based on wind-powered electricity generation power generation scene randomization, which is characterized in that
By the PHave, PMave, PLaveIt is respectively divided into n and adheres to section separately, comprising: by the PHave, PMave, PLaveRespectively according to
25%, 50%, 25% ratio is divided into 3 sections from small to large.
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