CN109635440A - A kind of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping method for calculating probability - Google Patents
A kind of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping method for calculating probability Download PDFInfo
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- CN109635440A CN109635440A CN201811524453.9A CN201811524453A CN109635440A CN 109635440 A CN109635440 A CN 109635440A CN 201811524453 A CN201811524453 A CN 201811524453A CN 109635440 A CN109635440 A CN 109635440A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping method for calculating probability, based on the research to coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover mechanism, development trend, using overhead transmission line icing online monitoring data over the years and Real-time Monitoring Data as object, the methods of fuzzy evaluation, mathematical statistics assessment icing developing stage are comprehensively utilized, coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping probabilistic model is established.Transmission line icing divided stages model is established by fuzzy evaluation method, calculates transmission line icing divided stages model parameter using fuzzy C-means clustering method, icing flashover tripping probability calculation model is established on the basis of studying ice covering thickness and probability of flashover.This method can be supported effectively and make somebody a mere figurehead transmission line located processing, horizontal for improving live lean O&M, promoted grid equipment safe operation property and be of great significance.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of electric power, more particularly to coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping probability calculation side
Method.
Background technique
Overhead transmission line is under the conditions ofs suitable temperature, humidity, sleet, landform etc. easily in insulator, conducting wire, ground wire table
One layer of nearly oval ice sheath, i.e. coated by ice of overhead power transmission line are adhered in face.Coated by ice of overhead power transmission line can cause insulator climb electricity away from
From reduction, the electron conductivity that insulate increases, and even results in line flashover tripping, seriously threatens the security and stability of operation of power networks.With
In recent years the Large scale construction of extra-high voltage alternating current-direct current power grid and mating regional backbone network frame constantly improve, overhead transmission line
Total kilometrage sustainable growth, across landform more sophisticated, this is also overhead transmission line while reinforcing power grid power supply capacity
O&M brings huge challenge.Coated by ice of overhead power transmission line is often more frequently serious in mountain area, and current main processing means are
By machine or artificial deicing after discovery ice covering thickness is more than limit value, transmission line icing, but this method can be effectively solved the problems, such as
The differentiation for not accounting for different transmission line icing limit values can not provide icing line flashover trip risk.It is therefore desirable to study
Icing line flashover tripping probability provides the line located improvement of icing for O&M department and provides decision-making foundation.
Coated by ice of overhead power transmission line risk investigation is in icing on-line monitoring, large scale ice covering thickness prediction and warning achievement at present
It is more but less in the coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover trip risk research achievement of fining.
Therefore, it is desirable to have one kind to be related to coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping method for calculating probability to solve the prior art
The problems in.
Summary of the invention
The present invention proposes that a kind of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping is general for coated by ice of overhead power transmission line risk investigation
Coated by ice of overhead power transmission line is transformed into differentiation risk assessment from general out-of-limit ice-melt, improved aerial by rate calculation method
Transmission line status evaluation capacity, loss caused by reducing because of burst accident.
A kind of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping method for calculating probability disclosed by the invention, the tripping probability calculation
Method the following steps are included:
Step 1: the online monitoring data of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line thickness is pre-processed；
Step 2: covering ice for insulator process is divided by initial stage, development, serious, danger according to coated by ice of overhead power transmission line thickness
In anxious and five stages of recession, establish the judgment models in each stage；
Step 3: establishing Flashing Voltage in Ice Coated Insulator UdWith the relational model of ice covering thickness d；
Step 4: the shaft tower ice covering thickness according to locating for monitoring device calculates transmission line icing tripping probability at this.
Preferably, the step 1 online monitoring data pretreatment the following steps are included:
(1) data singular value is removed using Yi Lada rule；Then the data acquisition system with the complete icing stage is filtered out,
One complete icing stage includes icing and two stages of ice-melt；To each complete icing, ice-melt sets classification, classification method
If subtracting icing initial time within 24 hours for the ice-melt end time, for ultra-short term icing, if within 7 days, for
Short-term icing, if if 7 days or more be long-term icing；
(2) ultra-short term icing, short-term icing and long-term icing reference sample are chosen according to icing maximum value median respectively；
(3) ultra-short term icing, short-term icing and long-term icing reference sample consecutive number strong point are subtracted each other and forms ultra-short term and covers
Ice, short-term icing and long-term icing growth rate reference sample.
Preferably, the icing stage in the step 1 be ice covering thickness on-line monitoring value from be less than 0.3mm steady growth to
Greater than 1mm；Ice-melting phase in the step 1 be ice covering thickness on-line monitoring value from be greater than 1mm steady decrease to less than
0.3mm, while icing stage and ice-melting phase are continuous in time.
Preferably, the initial stage in the step 2 and crest stage are lower semi-trapezoid membership function, the developing stage
For trapezoidal membership function, the severe stage and stage of subsiding are to rise half trapezoidal membership function, and formula (1)-(5) are respectively described
Initial stage, development, serious, peak and five stages of subsiding membership function, in which:
Initial stage:
Developing stage:
Severe stage:
Crest stage:
The ablation stage:
Each membership function approach degree is calculated by formula (6) prediction model:
In formula a be icing online monitoring data, by formula (1)-(5) bring into respectively formula (7) calculate prediction model with not
With the approach degree in icing stage, the approach degree maximum value corresponding stage is exactly icing developing stage
Approach degree computation model:
Preferably, the step 2 further comprises: by fuzzy clustering algorithm to the ultra-short term icing, short-term icing
Fuzzy clustering is carried out with the icing growth rate reference sample time series of long-term icing, cluster number is 5, is subordinate to letter per adjacent class
The smallest point of number is adjacent icing stage diacritical point, can acquire I in formula (1)-(5) by above-mentioned diacritical point1、I2、I3、I4、
I5And I6。
Preferably, Flashing Voltage in Ice Coated Insulator U in the step 3dRelational model with ice covering thickness d is formula (8):
Ud=α d-β (8)
Wherein α be with insulator pattern, β be the related constant of pollution level, given ice covering thickness is acquired according to formula (8)
Lower route icing flashover voltage.
Preferably, the tripping of shaft tower section icing locating for the monitoring device of the step 4 probability calculation such as formula (9):
In formula, U is route phase voltage, UmaxIt is 2 times of U.
The present invention is based on the researchs to coated by ice of overhead power transmission line mechanism, development trend, are based on electric power line ice-covering thickness
Monitor collection, conclusion, arrangement and the research of historical data and real time data on-line.Establish the jump of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover
Lock probability calculation model.By to pole and tower design parameter, meteorologic parameter, ice covering thickness on-line monitoring etc. data real-time access,
Coated by ice of overhead power transmission line stage judgment models, the icing flashover tripping probability calculation model of differentiation are established, it is defeated by making somebody a mere figurehead
Electric line icing is transformed into differentiation risk assessment from general out-of-limit ice-melt, improves overhead transmission line status assessment energy
Power, loss caused by reducing because of burst accident.
The present invention establishes the coated by ice of overhead power transmission line probability of flashover calculation method using computer software technology as core,
Coated by ice of overhead power transmission line real time monitoring ability has been deepened in the real-time assessment for realizing coated by ice of overhead power transmission line probability of flashover,
Reference frame is provided for live O&M, strengthens the security and stability of equipment operation, it is non-caused by reducing because of icing flashover to stop
Accident.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping method for calculating probability of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
To keep the purposes, technical schemes and advantages of the invention implemented clearer, below in conjunction in the embodiment of the present invention
Attached drawing, technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention is further described in more detail.In the accompanying drawings, identical from beginning to end or class
As label indicate same or similar element or element with the same or similar functions.Described embodiment is the present invention
A part of the embodiment, instead of all the embodiments.The embodiments described below with reference to the accompanying drawings are exemplary, it is intended to use
It is of the invention in explaining, and be not considered as limiting the invention.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, ordinary skill people
Member's every other embodiment obtained without creative efforts, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The method for calculating probability as shown in Figure 1, coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover of the invention trips, comprising the following steps:
Step 1: past 1 year this transmission line icing thickness online monitoring data is pre-processed；
Step 2: root is divided into initial stage, development, serious, danger according to ice covering thickness development characteristic, by covering ice for insulator process
In anxious and five stages of recession, establish each stage judgment models；
Step 3: establishing Flashing Voltage in Ice Coated Insulator UdWith ice covering thickness d relational model；
Step 4: the shaft tower ice covering thickness according to locating for monitoring device calculates transmission line icing tripping probability at this.
The present invention is based on the researchs to coated by ice of overhead power transmission line mechanism, development trend, are based on electric power line ice-covering thickness
Monitor collection, conclusion, arrangement and the research of historical data and real time data on-line.Establish the jump of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover
Lock probability calculation model.By to pole and tower design parameter, meteorologic parameter, ice covering thickness on-line monitoring etc. data real-time access,
Establish coated by ice of overhead power transmission line stage judgment models, the icing flashover tripping probability calculation model of differentiation.
1) research discovery icing flashover occurs mainly in ice-melt period, and coated by ice of overhead power transmission line, ice-melt often interlock
Occur, accurate judgement icing each stage is of great significance.This research is based on icing and monitors historical data on-line, by fuzzy poly-
Class algorithm (FCM) carries out pattern-recognition to ultra-short term icing, short-term icing, long-term icing icing growth rate, can be with accurate judgement
Each developing stage of the icing of different durations；
2) this research combines pole and tower design parameter and icing online monitoring data, specifies ice covering thickness, line voltage distribution etc.
The relationship of grade and icing flashover probability establishes coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping probability calculation model.
The invention discloses a kind of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover tripping method for calculating probability, based on to overhead transmission line
The research of road icing flashover mechanism, development trend, with overhead transmission line icing online monitoring data over the years and real-time monitoring number
According to the methods of fuzzy evaluation, mathematical statistics assessment icing developing stage for object, is comprehensively utilized, establishes overhead transmission line and cover
Ice flashover tripping probabilistic model.Transmission line icing divided stages model is established by fuzzy evaluation method, utilizes fuzzy C-means clustering
Method calculates transmission line icing divided stages model parameter, and icing is established on the basis of studying ice covering thickness and probability of flashover and is dodged
Network tripping probability calculation model.
Finally it is noted that the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations.To the greatest extent
Present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments for pipe, those skilled in the art should understand that: it is still
It is possible to modify the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or part of technical characteristic is equally replaced
It changes；And these are modified or replaceed, the essence for technical solution of various embodiments of the present invention that it does not separate the essence of the corresponding technical solution
Mind and range.
Claims (7)
- A kind of method for calculating probability 1. coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover trips, which is characterized in that the tripping probability calculation side Method the following steps are included:Step 1: the online monitoring data of coated by ice of overhead power transmission line thickness is pre-processed；Step 2: according to coated by ice of overhead power transmission line thickness by covering ice for insulator process be divided into initial stage, development, it is serious, critical with Subside five stages, establishes the judgment models in each stage；Step 3: establishing Flashing Voltage in Ice Coated Insulator UdWith the relational model of ice covering thickness d；Step 4: the shaft tower ice covering thickness according to locating for monitoring device calculates transmission line icing tripping probability at this.
- The method for calculating probability 2. coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover according to claim 1 trips, it is characterised in that: described The online monitoring data of step 1 pre-process the following steps are included:(1) data singular value is removed using Yi Lada rule；Then the data acquisition system with the complete icing stage is filtered out, one The complete icing stage includes icing and two stages of ice-melt；To each complete icing, ice-melt sets classification, if classification method is The ice-melt end time subtracted icing initial time within 24 hours, then was ultra-short term icing, if being short-term within 7 days Icing, if if 7 days or more be long-term icing；(2) ultra-short term icing, short-term icing and long-term icing reference sample are chosen according to icing maximum value median respectively；(3) ultra-short term icing, short-term icing and long-term icing reference sample consecutive number strong point are subtracted each other to form ultra-short term icing, short Phase icing and long-term icing growth rate reference sample.
- The method for calculating probability 3. coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover according to claim 2 trips, it is characterised in that: described The icing stage in step 1 is ice covering thickness on-line monitoring value from less than 0.3mm steady growth to more than 1mm；In the step 1 Ice-melting phase be ice covering thickness on-line monitoring value from be greater than 1mm steady decrease to less than 0.3mm.
- The method for calculating probability 4. coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover according to claim 3 trips, it is characterised in that: described Initial stage and crest stage in step 2 are lower semi-trapezoid membership function, and the developing stage is trapezoidal membership function, described Severe stage and stage of subsiding are to rise half trapezoidal membership function, and formula (1)-(5) are respectively the initial stage, development, serious, peak With the membership function in five stages of subsiding, in which:Initial stage:Developing stage:Severe stage:Crest stage:The ablation stage:Each membership function approach degree is calculated by formula (6) prediction model:A is icing online monitoring data in formula, brings formula (1)-(5) into formula (7) calculating prediction model respectively and covers with difference The approach degree in ice stage, approach degree maximum value corresponding stage are exactly icing developing stageApproach degree computation model:
- The method for calculating probability 5. coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover according to claim 4 trips, it is characterised in that: described Step 2 further comprises: being increased by icing of the fuzzy clustering algorithm to the ultra-short term icing, short-term icing and long-term icing Rate reference sample time series carries out fuzzy clustering, and it is adjacent icing per the smallest point of adjacent class membership function that cluster number, which is 5, Stage diacritical point can acquire I in formula (1)-(5) by above-mentioned diacritical point1、I2、I3、I4、I5And I6。
- The method for calculating probability 6. coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover according to claim 1 trips, it is characterised in that: described Flashing Voltage in Ice Coated Insulator U in step 3dRelational model with ice covering thickness d is formula (8):Ud=α d-β (8)Wherein α be with insulator pattern, β be the related constant of pollution level, it is offline that given ice covering thickness is acquired according to formula (8) Road icing flashover voltage.
- The method for calculating probability 7. coated by ice of overhead power transmission line flashover according to claim 1 trips, it is characterised in that: described The tripping probability calculation such as formula (9) of shaft tower section icing locating for the monitoring device of step 4:In formula, U is route phase voltage, UmaxIt is 2 times of U.
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| CN112288190A (en) * | 2020-11-19 | 2021-01-29 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Method, system and storage medium for predicting ice damage trip of large-range power grid line |
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| CN113221375A (en) * | 2021-05-31 | 2021-08-06 | 山东建筑大学 | Electric power system simulation method considering line icing and insulator flashover |
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| CN113221375A (en) * | 2021-05-31 | 2021-08-06 | 山东建筑大学 | Electric power system simulation method considering line icing and insulator flashover |
| CN113221375B (en) * | 2021-05-31 | 2023-08-04 | 山东建筑大学 | Power system simulation method considering line icing and insulator flashover |
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