CN109635325A - Reservoir landslide stability prediction method based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring - Google Patents
Reservoir landslide stability prediction method based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention is the reservoir landslide stability prediction method based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring, it is related to a kind of Slope Stability Evaluation and landslide disaster monitoring and warning technical field, more particularly to a kind of displacement of water induced landslide geological disaster and Compound Water power coupling Prediction Parameters and method for estimating stability, belong to water conservancy engineering evaluation technical field.A kind of Slope Stability Evaluation and landslide disaster monitoring and warning technical field include the following steps: step 1, choose reservoir landslide elementary exploration and monitoring point for displacement；Step 2, arrangement and installation monitoring device；Step 3, slope displacement and rainfall, reservoir level real-time monitoring and data processing；Step 4 determines that unit statistical analysis period and rainfall, reservoir level unload load parameter；Step 5 determines rainfall-library hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient；Step 6 determines that Compound Water unloads load parameter and its unloads load response parameter；Step 7 determines that Compound Water unloads load response ratio prediction model；Step 8 determines that reservoirs side slope safety is critical and unloads load response ratio criterion.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of Slope Stability Evaluations and landslide disaster monitoring and warning technical field more particularly to a kind of water
The displacement of induced landslide geological disaster and Compound Water power coupling Prediction Parameters and method for estimating stability, belong to hydraulic engineering
Assessment technique field.
Background technique
The special engineering characteristic of great hydraulic engineering determines reservoir landslide with potential with complicated water environment conditions
Huge harmfulness.From Italian tile in 1963 according to large reservoirs such as high landslide, China's Qianjiangping Landslide and the smooth slopes of pool rock
After landslide occurs, the stability problem of reservoir slopes is more and more of interest by people.As China's Three Gorges Projects are built up and library
Water level rises to after 175m, and according to flood control, shipping and power generation needs, reservoir level every year will the fluctuation between 175~145m
Variation, the stability of strong influence side slope.In addition, side slope is during water level fluctuation of reservoir, if meeting with heavy rainfall, it is more likely that
Unstability.Therefore, library water and rainfall coupling will necessarily destroy reservoir area original place and be lauched running environment, and form Three Gorges Reservoir
The frequency and scale that special Compound Water environmental forces effect, extreme influence and control reservoir area landslide disaster occur, are formed
Compound hydrodynamic effect and may on influenced caused by slope stability in reservoir region more become both at home and abroad prevent and reduce natural disasters field close
The focus of note.Therefore, the catastrophe early-warning prediction method for studying and establishing compound hydrodynamic condition lower storage reservoir type side slope, to Three Gorges work
The reservoir landslide prediction and prevention and treatment of journey reservoir area and similar compound hydrodynamic condition all will be with important theory significances
With application value.
Currently, most widely used reservoir landslide prediction and evaluation method is that limit equilibrium method and displacement time series are pre- both at home and abroad
Survey method.Limit equilibrium method is that slip mass is assumed to be rigid body, analyzes its mechanical balance state along sliding surface, by sliding force,
The ratio of skid resistance evaluates the stability of side slope as the safety coefficient K on landslide.But the mechanics evaluation mould that such method is established
Type be the static models without time factor and modeling assumed condition and restrictive condition it is more so that prediction and evaluation result vulnerable to
The influence of above-mentioned factor has very strong uncertainty, the time occurred it is even more impossible to predict landslide；Displacement time series predicted method is fortune
It uses landslide displacement amount, rate of displacement or displacement acceleration as Landslide Prediction parameter, analyzes its changing rule to predict that landslide is steady
The qualitative and its unstability time.Though this method overcomes the deficiency of limit equilibrium method to a certain extent, the parameter that it is evaluated is only
It is displacement during Landslide Evolution or rate of displacement and its changing rule, does not explain landslide displacement or rate of displacement variation
Reason, and displacement prediction parameter used by this method is interfered vulnerable to extraneous factor and more phases occurs and ladder-like oscillation is accelerated to become
Change, and the ladder-like change in oscillation of this displacement acceleration may not be able to represent the overall collapse on landslide, and such method is displaced
Prediction Parameters do not unify INSTABILITY CRITERION, thus accurate differentiation and prediction can not be made to the time of origin of landslide disaster.
In recent years, as the new theory and new method of a kind of nonlinear prediction, concrete-cored DCM pile is gradually available for greatly
In the non-linear dynamics process on type landslide and the research of feature, this method proposes will landslide rainfall (reservoir level) and displacement or position
It moves rate to carry out while monitoring and integrating, determines that the coupling integration of landslide rainfall (reservoir level) and displacement or rate of displacement moves with this
Power Prediction Parameters and evaluation method.The prediction technique overcomes tradition displacement time series forecasting method and only chooses landslide displacement or displacement
Limitation of the rate as monitoring and evaluation parameter, while also overcoming limit equilibrium method can not Slope Stability progress dynamic
The limitation of evaluation.However current research be all using the single hydrodynamic force variable such as rainfall or library water as landslide incitant into
Row Loading ami deloading response ratio calculates, and for reservoir landslide, the deformation and failure on landslide suffer from Reservoir Water Level and
The compound hydrodynamic influence that rainfall is formed, the power load on landslide, uninstall parms should include the superposition of both factors, only
Consider the effect on single hydrodynamic force factor pair landslide, it is likely that lead to the erroneous judgement to Landslide Stability.How according to reservoirs
The compound hydrodynamic condition that comes down carries out effectively evaluating to its stability with change in displacement rule and prediction needs further
Research.
Summary of the invention
For above-mentioned traditional reservoir landslide estimation of stability and the limitation and deficiency of prediction technique, according to plastoelasticity
Basic principle has comprehensively considered rainfall, the dynamic compound hydrodynamic effect to reservoir landslide of library ripples, by determining rainfall-library
The dynamic effect of rainfall and reservoir level side slope is carried out equivalency transform, and then establishes reservoirs by hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient
Landslide Compound Water unloads load response ratio model, and establishes reservoir landslide Compound Water according to principle of damage mechanics and unload load response
Than the corresponding relationship and its criterion of parameter and landslide form mechanism property coefficient, develop on this basis to reservoirs slope stability
Rule is analysed and evaluated.Steps are as follows for its main inventive:
Step 1: reservoir landslide elementary exploration and monitoring point for displacement are chosen
Elementary exploration and mapping are carried out to reservoir landslide to be evaluated, determine the features such as landslide distribution range and size,
To select the Reasonable Arrangement mode of slope displacement monitoring point: 1. in come down main skating area and rear tension fracture, cut mouth etc. and close
N monitoring point for displacement (n >=2) is arranged in key position；2. displacement monitoring datum mark (no less than 3) is selected in steady other than monitoring slip mass
Fixed basement rock or the region without deformation form displacement monitoring and control net, guarantee self to check and control slope monitoring point is supervised comprehensively
It surveys.
Step 2: the arrangement and installation of monitoring device
Monitoring device includes rainfall monitoring device, reservoir level monitoring device and displacement monitoring equipment, and wherein rainfall is supervised
Measurement equipment selects Full-automatic hydrological to monitor system, monitors in slope monitoring region overlay formula, keeps surveyed rainfall representative；
Reservoir level monitoring device selects the long-range reservoir water level monitoring system of GPRS, and carries out cloth according to installation requirement at slope monitoring point
If installation；Displacement monitoring equipment selects wireless GPS system for monitoring displacement, lays displacement deformation monitoring in the monitoring location of slopes
Point and displacement monitoring datum mark simultaneously install wireless monitoring device, and guarantee that inbuilt monitoring device is closely tied with landslide surface layer
It closes, mutually indepedent, non-interference between equipment, each monitoring point displacement changing value can be monitored effectively.
Step 3: slope displacement and rainfall, reservoir level real-time monitoring and data processing
(day) synchronizes the rainfall to landslide area to be measured, reservoir level and displacement and is monitored at a time interval, and leads to
It crosses side slope place data-signal collector above-mentioned monitoring data are transferred to long-range monitoring room and carry out classification pretreatment, and then will
Pre-process obtain the moon rainfall, reservoir level and the detailed typing Excel table of displacement data.
Step 4: the method that determining unit statistical analysis period and rainfall, reservoir level unload load parameter is as follows:
(1) determination in unit statistical analysis period
According to reservoir landslide rainfall and Reservoir Water Level rule and monitoring time interval, it may be determined that annual conduct in 12 months
One unit statisticallys analyze and predetermined period, and can determine statistical analysis and predetermined period number as unit of year by this.
(2) rainfall unloads the determination of load parameter
It is J in unit statistical analysis and its side slope rainfall sequence in predetermined periodi(i=1,2 ... n), and unit is united
The rainfall sequence J of meter analysis and evaluation cycleiWith mean value rainfall J0Difference △ Ji(i=1,2 ... n) is used as rainfall increment
Unload load sequence of differences, it may be assumed that
△Ji=Ji-J0(i=1,2 ... ..., n) (2)
If rainfall increment △ Ji> 0, then determine △ JiParameter is loaded for the rainfall on landslide, is denoted as △ Ji+；On the contrary, if rainfall
Increment △ Ji< 0, then determine △ JiFor the rainfall uninstall parms on landslide, it is denoted as △ Ji-。
(3) reservoir level unloads the determination of load parameter
It is H in unit statistical analysis and its side slope reservoir level sequence in predetermined periodi(i=1,2 ... n), will monthly library
Water level HiWith reservoir level H last monthi-1Difference △ Hi(i=1,2 ... n) unload load sequence of differences as library water, it may be assumed that
△Hi=Hi-Hi-1(i=1,2 ... ..., n) (3)
Classified according to reservoir landslide, most of reservoir landslide is that flowing pressure type comes down and floating support Weight reduced type comes down.Therefore,
Consider that load parameter is unloaded on flowing pressure type landslide and the library water on floating support Weight reduced type landslide respectively.
It comes down for flowing pressure type, when drawdown, slope stability decline；When library water rises, slope stability
Rise.Therefore, if above-mentioned difference △ Hi< 0, then determine △ HiParameter is loaded for the library water on landslide, is denoted as △ Hi+；Conversely, then sentencing
Determine △ HiFor the library water uninstall parms on landslide, it is denoted as △ Hi-。
2. when drawdown, slope stability rises for floating support Weight reduced type landslide；When library water rises, slope stability
Decline.Therefore, if above-mentioned difference △ Hi< 0, then determine △ HiFor the library water uninstall parms on landslide, it is denoted as △ Hi-；Conversely, then sentencing
Determine △ HiParameter is loaded for the library water on landslide, is denoted as △ Hi+。
Step 5: rainfall-library hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient determination
The dynamic effect that rainfall and library ripples are moved side slope for convenience is needed as unified compound hydrodynamic effect
Rainfall and reservoir level are subjected to equivalency transform to the dynamic effect of reservoirs side slope, it is therefore desirable to determine rainfall-library hydrodynamic(al)
Power conversion coefficient k.For this purpose, proposing to unload load benchmark by a selected initial composite water according to plastoelasticity basic principle
Period calculates reservoir level in high water level, middle water level, in low water level corresponding month, library water is steady according to monitoring data early period respectively
Periodically, rainfall increment changes △ J0And its caused displacement △ SJ0, and calculate its average valueAnd rainfall stops
Afterwards, reservoir level is in high water level, middle water level, and low water level fluctuates △ H respectively0And its caused displacement △ SH0, and calculate its average valueDetermine that load deflection response rate η is unloaded in the initial rainfall of side slope respectively according to formula (4), (5)JIt unloads and adds with initial library water
Carry dynamic respond rate ηH。
And then rainfall-library hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient k can be further determined that according to formula (6):
Step 6: Compound Water unloads load parameter and its unloads the determination of load response parameter
If of that month rainfall and Ku Shui are unloading effect, △ Hi-+△kJi-< 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiFor unloading
Effect；If of that month rainfall and Ku Shui are loading effect, △ Hi++k△Ji+> 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiFor load effect
It answers；If of that month rainfall is unloading, library water is loading effect or rainfall is load, library water is unloading effect, need according to practical drop
Rainfall specifically determined with Reservoir Water Level amount, even △ Hi-+k△Ji+< 0 or △ Hi++k△Ji-When < 0, compound hydrodynamic force effect
Answer △ PiTo unload effect；If △ Hi-+k△Ji+> 0 or △ Hi++k△Ji-When > 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiFor load effect
It answers.By above-mentioned calculating, compound hydrodynamic force uninstall parms can be denoted as △ Pi-=(△ Hi+k△Ji)-, corresponding unloading displacement
Response parameter is △ Si-, load parameter and be denoted as △ Pi+=(△ Hi+k△Ji)+, corresponding load deflection response parameter is △
Si+。
Step 7: Compound Water unloads the determination of load response ratio prediction model
Respectively to compound hydrodynamic force △ P in unit statistical analysis with predetermined periodiSequence and its dynamic respond sequence △ Si
It carries out unloading the positive and negative Data-Statistics of load and takes its mean value, Compound Water unloading and load statistic mean value in the period can be respectively obtained
WithIt unloads dynamic respond and load deflection responds statistic mean valueWith
To unload load statistic and unload load deflection response statistic as foundation, it may be determined that side slope Compound Water unloads load response
Compare model, it may be assumed that
In formula:Compound Water unloads dynamic respond amount mean value；Compound Water load deflection response quautity mean value；Compound Water discharging quantity mean value；Compound Water loading capacity mean value.
Step 8: the critical determination for unloading load response ratio criterion of reservoirs side slope safety
(1) side slope unloads the determination of the stability coefficient relationship of load response ratio and side slope
According to damage mechanics basic principle, the damage moduli D of side slope slopesiResponse ratio γ is loaded with unloadingiIt is portraying and is evaluating
There is following quantitative relationship: D when the damage and failure rule of materiali=1- γi.Therefore, according to the damage moduli Di of side slope slopes with
The relationship Fi=1/D of stability factor of slope Fii, it may be determined that side slope unloads load response ratio and the stability coefficient of side slope exists such as
Lower quantitative relationship
(2) the critical determination for unloading load response ratio criterion of side slope safety
It can determine that side slope safety is critical according to Side Slope Safety Coefficient K and unload load response ratio criterion, i.e.,Wherein,
The safety coefficient K (such as K=1.25,1.20,1.15) of side slope can be according to slope stability significance level and slope geological condition
Complexity and " Technique Code for Building Slope Engineering " (GB50330-2002) and " hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering Slope Design specification "
(DL/T5353-2006) etc. comprehensive to determine.
Step 9: the determination of reservoirs slope stability and Risk-warning grade
Monitoring and warning kinetic parameter of the load response ratio as slope stability is unloaded with reservoirs side slope Compound Water, to water
Library type slope stability is monitored and evaluates, i.e., unloads load response ratio γ by the Compound Water to any monitoring cycleiWith side
The Compound Water on slope unloads load response ratio critical value γcrCompare, can to the stability under the compound hydrodynamic condition of reservoirs side slope into
Row monitoring and evaluation, that is, work as γi≥γcrWhen, then determine that side slope is in stable state；Work as γi<γcrWhen, then determine that side slope is in
Unstable state.
Work as γi<γcrWhen, stability status division further side slope can be carried out according to principle 2, and according to stability of slope
Character state determines its warning grade (table 1), it may be assumed that
1. if 0.09≤γ < γcr, determine that side slope is basicly stable, yellow early warning should be issued at this time, timely reinforcing side slope simultaneously adds
The monitoring frequency of strong side slope；
2. determining that side slope is understable if 0.05≤γ < 0.09, orange warning should be issued at this time, withdraw the masses in time, simultaneously
Side slope is further reinforced；
3. determining side slope i.e. by unstability if 0≤γ < 0.05, red early warning should be issued at this time, and indication side slope will occur whole
Body sliding.
Table 1 unloads the reservoir landslide stable state of load response ratio and the division of warning grade based on Compound Water
| Compound Water unloads load response ratio γ | 0≤γ<0.05 | 0.05≤γ<0.09 | 0.09≤γ<γcr | γ≥γcr |
| Stable state | I.e. by unstability | It is understable | It is basicly stable | Stablize |
| Warning grade | Red early warning | Orange warning | Yellow early warning | Without early warning |
Principle 1:
Landslide may be influenced as nonlinear system in development process by various exterior power factors, such as reservoir level
Change, rainfall and earthquake etc., these outer power can regard load action as, and generated by side slope after load displacement,
The variation of the states such as stress distribution is load response, and load and the relationship of response are as shown in Figure 3 during Landslide Evolution.Response
Rate can be defined as the limit of response increment and load increment ratio, may be expressed as:
In formula: △ R --- response increment；
△ P --- load increment.
Use X-And X+Respectively indicate unloading and load response rate.When load is smaller, △ R and △ P is linear or approximately linear
Relationship, X+And X-It is of substantially equal.If load persistently increases, critical value P is progressively reachedcr, system will be close to unstability or destruction, sound
Should rate will be with load and increase.When unstability occurs for system, X+→ ∞, and X-It is relatively small, it is seen then that be in and lose in system
When steady state, even if loading capacity is extremely small, biggish system still can be caused to respond.Therefore, the size of response rate and non-thread
Property system locating for stability status it is closely related, system in different states, even if the load increment kept constant, response
Rate is also different, and response is bigger, and system more tends to instability status.Therefore, load response ratio will can be unloaded is defined as:
In formula: △ R-、△R+- unloading response increment, load response increment
△P-、△P+- unloading increment, load increment.
For elastic system, X-And X+It is equal, γ=1 at this time.And for nonlinear system, γ value describes nonlinear system
System deviates the degree of stable state (or close to unstability), it may be assumed that γ >=1, system are in stable state；γ < 1, system are in unstable shape
State；γ → 0, system is i.e. by unstability.
For the compound hydrodynamic force action character of reservoir landslide, load response ratio model will be unloaded and improved, after improvement
Unload load response ratio model expression it is as follows:
In formula:- Compound Water unloads displacement variable mean value；- Compound Water load deflection variable quantity mean value；(△H+
K △ J)-- Compound Water discharging quantity mean value；(△H+k△J)+- Compound Water loading capacity mean value.
Formula (10) is that the Compound Water comprehensively considered under rainfall and the effect of library water coincidence power unloads load response ratio prediction
Model.It is analysed and evaluated in order to facilitate with the model Slope Stability, top priority must determine out rainfall and library
Hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient k.For this purpose, this proposition unloads load reference period by a selected initial composite water, library water is monitored respectively
Position is in high water level, and middle water level, when low water level is stablized, rainfall changes △ J0And its caused displacement △ SJ0, and it is average to calculate it
ValueAnd when without rainfall, reservoir level is in high water level, middle water level, △ H when low water level fluctuates0And its caused position
Move △ SH0, and calculate its average valueDetermine that load deflection response is unloaded in initial rainfall respectively according to formula (11), (12)
Rate average value η J and Ku Shui unload load deflection response rate average value ηH。
Rainfall-library hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient k can be further determined that according to formula (13):
Principle 2:
From the point of view of damage mechanics, the preparation process of reservoir landslide is exactly the damage development process of slopes material.?
In damage mechanics, damage process can quantitatively be portrayed and be described with damaging parameter D with degree of injury, and size is defined as
The change rate of the deformation modulus E of material:
In formula: EoFor the modulus of original state (not damaging)；E is the modulus being damaged.When material does not damage, E=Eo, D=
0；When material destroys completely, E=0, D=1.
According to the definition (see formula (9)) for unloading load response ratio parameter, the position that load response ratio is unloading phase slopes is unloaded
Move the ratio between response (strain) and its power variation (stress) and the dynamic respond (strain) of corresponding load phase slopes and its power
Change the ratio of the ratio between (stress), i.e.,
In view of modulus of the material in unloading can generally be approximately equal to initial elastic modulus Eo, i.e. E-=Eo；And when loading
Its modulus is its deformation modulus, i.e. E+=E, then has
As γ=1, D=0 illustrates that material is without damage, and is in stable state；As γ → 0, D=1 illustrates material
Damage completely.In most cases as D < 1, show material partial destruction.It can further be exported by formula (16):
γcr=1-Dcr (17)
In formula: DcrReferred to as Critical damage value.
Formula (16), (17) show that unloading for material of rock and soil is a pair of there are one between load response ratio γ and its damaging parameter D
The quantitative relationship answered.
In slope limit balancing method estimation of stability, the degree of stability of side slope is usually described with stability coefficient.And
Side Slope Safety Coefficient may be defined as limit damaging parameter Dlim(DlimIt takes 1) and allows maximum damaging parameter DcrThe ratio between:
According to formula (18), stability factor of slope may be defined as limit damaging parameter DlimIt damages and becomes with side slope any time
Measure DiThe ratio between, it may be assumed that
By formula (16), (19), it can determine that side slope unloads the relationship between load response ratio and stability coefficient are as follows:
It may further determine that side slope unloads load response ratio stability criteria and is according to formula (20)
Wherein, γcrAs load response ratio is unloaded with reservoirs side slope Compound Water determined by Side Slope Safety Coefficient K to stablize
Property criterion.According to the stability criteria, can the stability of side slope carry out following analysis and evaluation: as stability factor of slope Fi
When being greater than and being equal to safety coefficient K, load response ratio γ is unloadedi≥γcr, show that side slope is in stable state；Work as stability of slope
Property coefficient FiWhen less than safety coefficient K, load response ratio γ is unloadedi<γcr, show that side slope plays pendulum.
It is provided according in " landslide control engineering technique of design and construction specification " (DZ 0240-2004), safety coefficient K=
1.05~1.15, landslide is in temporary stabilization, it is generally the case that for side slope safety consideration, safety coefficient K value be should be greater than
1.15.Therefore it proposes Ks=1.05,1.10 and 1.15 respectively as slope stability Instability, it is understable with it is basicly stable
Separation, and according to side slope unload load response ratio and stability coefficient between relationship respectively determine side slope Instability, owe
Stabilization is corresponding with basicly stable state to unload load response ratio
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are: comprehensive analysis reservoir landslide displacement deformation feature with
On the basis of the kinetic factors relationship such as rainfall and Reservoir Water Level, to the Loading ami deloading response ratio model of rainfall, library water single-factor
It improves, establishes reservoir landslide Compound Water and unload load response ratio model, disclose reservoir landslide Compound Water and unload load
The corresponding relationship of response ratio parameter and Landslide Stability on this basis analyzes reservoirs slope stability Evolution
With evaluation.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 invented technology flow diagram,
Fig. 2 landslide monitoring point arrangement schematic diagram, wherein 01 is slip mass, 02 is monitoring point for displacement, and 03 shears for slip mass
Tensile crack,
Load and response relation figure during Fig. 3 Landslide Evolution,
Certain landslide and its monitoring point schematic diagram in Fig. 4 embodiment,
Compound Water unloads load response ratio and changes over time curve graph in Fig. 5 embodiment.
Specific embodiment
The principle and features of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, and the given examples are served only to explain the present invention, and
It is non-to be used to limit the scope of the invention.
It is described in detail by taking certain reservoirs Compound Water landslide as an example below.The landslide is landslide induced along the Yangtze River,
For typical flowing pressure type landslide, initial water level is 170m before monitoring, and monitoring time is in January, 2012 in December, 2016.
Specific implementation steps are as follows:
Step 1: reservoir landslide elementary exploration and monitoring point for displacement are chosen
Elementary exploration and mapping are carried out to reservoir landslide to be evaluated, determine the features such as landslide distribution range and size,
To select the Reasonable Arrangement mode of slope displacement monitoring point: 1. in come down main skating area and rear tension fracture, cut mouth etc. and
2 monitoring point for displacement (monitoring point A and monitoring point B) is arranged in key point, sees Fig. 4；2. 3 displacement monitoring datum marks are arranged, it is selected in
Stable basement rock or the region without deformation, form displacement monitoring and control net other than monitoring slip mass, guarantee self to check and control
Slope monitoring point comprehensive monitoring.
Step 2: the arrangement and installation of monitoring device
Monitoring device includes rainfall monitoring device, reservoir level monitoring device and displacement monitoring equipment, and wherein rainfall is supervised
Measurement equipment selects Full-automatic hydrological to monitor system, monitors in slope monitoring region overlay formula, keeps surveyed rainfall representative；
Reservoir level monitoring device selects the long-range reservoir water level monitoring system of GPRS, and carries out cloth according to installation requirement at slope monitoring point
If installation；Displacement monitoring equipment selects wireless GPS system for monitoring displacement, lays displacement deformation monitoring in the monitoring location of slopes
Point and displacement monitoring datum mark simultaneously install wireless monitoring device, and guarantee that inbuilt monitoring device is closely tied with landslide surface layer
It closes, mutually indepedent, non-interference between equipment, each monitoring point displacement changing value can be monitored effectively, see Fig. 2.
Step 3: slope displacement and rainfall, reservoir level real-time monitoring and data processing
The rainfall in reservoir landslide area to be measured, reservoir level and displacement are monitored as unit of day, and pass through side slope
Monitoring data are transferred to long-range monitoring room by place data-signal collector；It is average to calculate separately out moon rainfall, moon reservoir level
Value and moon displacement, by taking the A of monitoring point as an example, are displaced detailed typing Excel table for moon rainfall, moon reservoir level average value and the A point moon
Lattice are shown in Table 2.
Table 2
Step 4: unit statistical analysis period and rainfall, reservoir level unload the determination for loading parameter
(1) determination in unit statistical analysis period
According to reservoir landslide rainfall and Reservoir Water Level rule and monitoring time interval, it may be determined that annual conduct in 12 months
One unit statistical analysis and predetermined period, and by this can determine 2012-2016 between statistical analysis as unit of year in advance
Periodicity is surveyed, totally 5 periods.
(2) rainfall unloads the determination of load parameter
It is J in unit statistical analysis and its side slope rainfall sequence in predetermined periodi(i=1,2 ... n), and unit is united
The rainfall sequence J of meter analysis and evaluation cycleiWith mean value rainfall J0Difference △ Ji(i=1,2 ... n) is used as rainfall increment
Unload load sequence of differences, it may be assumed that
△Ji=Ji-J0(i=1,2 ... ..., n) (2)
If rainfall increment △ Ji> 0, then determine △ JiParameter is loaded for the rainfall on landslide, is denoted as △ Ji+；On the contrary, if rainfall
Increment △ Ji< 0, then determine △ JiFor the rainfall uninstall parms on landslide, it is denoted as △ Ji-。
(3) library water unloads the determination of load parameter
It is H in unit statistical analysis and its side slope reservoir level sequence in predetermined periodi(i=1,2 ... n), will monthly library
Water level HiWith reservoir level H last monthi-1Difference △ Hi(i=1,2 ... n) unload load sequence of differences as library water, it may be assumed that
△Hi=Hi-Hi-1(i=1,2 ... ..., n) (3)
Since the landslide is flowing pressure type landslide, when drawdown, slope stability decline；When library water rises, side slope
Stability rises.Therefore, if above-mentioned difference △ Hi< 0, then determine △ HiParameter is loaded for the library water on landslide, is denoted as △ Hi+；Instead
It, then determine △ HiFor the library water uninstall parms on landslide, it is denoted as △ Hi-。
Its rainfall and Reservoir Water Level unload load parameter and are shown in Table 3.
Table 3
In table: "+" value is load, and "-" value is unloading.
Step 5: rainfall-library hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient determination
Load reference period was unloaded for initial composite water with 2012, according to daily reservoir level, rainfall, displacement monitoring number
According to, reservoir level at high water level (175m), middle water level (160m), in the month of low water level (145m), i.e., 2012 1,4, in July
Choose the constant number of days of water level, rainfall increment △ J0Respectively 0.004m, 0.005m, 0.021m and its caused displacement become
Change △ SJ0Respectively 0.0008m, 0.0012m, 0.004m, and calculate its average value
Rainfall stop after when, reservoir level is at high water level (175m), middle water level (160m), in the month of low water level (145m), i.e., 2012
1,4, in the number of days not rained July, rainfall increment is constant, water level fluctuation of reservoir △ H0Respectively 1.5m, 1.5m, 1.5m, and its
Caused change in displacement △ SH0Respectively 0.005m, 0.011m, 0.02m, and calculate its average valueIts initial rainfall is acquired respectively according to formula (4), (5) unloads load deflection response rate mean valueInitial library water unloads load deflection response rate mean valueBy calculating to obtain rainfall-library hydrodynamic(al) at monitoring point
Power conversion coefficient
Step 6: Compound Water unloads load parameter and its unloads the determination of load response parameter
If of that month rainfall and Ku Shui are unloading effect, △ Hi-+△kJi-< 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiFor unloading
Effect；If of that month rainfall and Ku Shui are loading effect, △ Hi++k△Ji+> 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiFor load effect
It answers；If of that month rainfall is unloading, library water is loading effect or rainfall is load, library water is unloading effect, need according to practical drop
Rainfall specifically determined with Reservoir Water Level amount, even △ Hi-+k△Ji+< 0 or △ Hi++k△Ji-When < 0, compound hydrodynamic force effect
Answer △ PiTo unload effect；If △ Hi-+k△Ji+> 0 or △ Hi++k△Ji-When > 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiFor load effect
It answers.By above-mentioned calculating, compound hydrodynamic force uninstall parms can be denoted as △ Pi-=(△ Hi+k△Ji)-, corresponding unloading displacement
Response parameter is △ Si-, load parameter and be denoted as △ Pi+=(△ Hi+k△Ji)+, corresponding load deflection response parameter is △
Si+.Its Compound Water unloads load parameter and is shown in Table 4.
Table 4
In table: "+" value is load, and "-" value is unloading.
Step 7: Compound Water unloads the determination of load response ratio prediction model
Respectively to compound hydrodynamic force △ P in unit statistical analysis with predetermined periodiSequence and its dynamic respond sequence △ Si
It carries out unloading the positive and negative Data-Statistics of load and takes its mean value, Compound Water unloading and load statistic mean value in the period can be respectively obtained
WithUnloading response and load response statistic mean valueWithIts Compound Water unloads load parameter and unloads load response
Parameter calculated result is shown in Table 5.
Table 5
In table: "+" value is load, and "-" value is unloading.
To unload load statistic and unload load deflection response statistic as foundation, it may be determined that side slope Compound Water unloads load response
Compare model, it may be assumed that
In formula:- Compound Water unloads response quautity mean value；- Compound Water loads response quautity mean value；—
Compound Water discharging quantity mean value；- Compound Water loading capacity mean value.
Its calculated result is shown in Table 6:
Table 6
Step 8: the critical determination for unloading load response ratio criterion of Compound Water side slope safety
(1) side slope unloads the determination of the stability coefficient relationship of load response ratio and side slope
According to damage mechanics basic principle, the damage moduli Di of side slope slopes and unload load response ratio γiIt is portraying and is commenting
There is following quantitative relationship: D when the damage and failure rule of valence materiali=1- γi.Therefore, according to the damage moduli D of side slope slopesi
With stability factor of slope FiRelationship Fi=1/Di, it may be determined that side slope unloads load response ratio and the stability coefficient of side slope exists
Following quantitative relationship
(2) the critical determination for unloading load response ratio of side slope safety
It can determine that the safety critical of side slope unloads load response ratio criterion according to the safety factor of stability K of side slope, i.e.,Wherein, the safety factor of stability K of side slope is according to slope stability significance level and slope geological complicated condition journey
Degree and " Technique Code for Building Slope Engineering " (GB50330-2002) and " hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering Slope Design specification " (DL/
T5353-2006) etc. comprehensive to determine, K=1.2,
Step 9: the measurement of Compound Water slope stability and the determination of Risk-warning grade
Monitoring and warning kinetic parameter of the load response ratio as slope stability is unloaded with the Compound Water of side slope, to library bank
Slope stability is monitored and evaluates, i.e., unloads load response ratio γ by the Compound Water to any monitoring cycleiWith the peace of side slope
Complete critical unload loads response ratio γcrCompare, stability can be carried out to Compound Water side slope and be monitored and evaluate, the reservoirs side slope
In 2012-2015, γi>γcr, determine that side slope is in stable state in this period；2016, γi<γcr, determine side slope
It is now in unstable state, and 0.05≤γ < 0.09, therefore, it is determined that the side slope is understable at this time, Ying Fabu orange warning, and
When withdraw the masses, while side slope is reinforced.
The foregoing is merely presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, it is all in spirit of the invention and
Within principle, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on be should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of reservoir landslide stability prediction method based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring, which is characterized in that including
Following steps: step 1 chooses reservoir landslide elementary exploration and monitoring point for displacement；Step 2, arrangement and installation monitoring device；
Step 3, slope displacement and rainfall, reservoir level real-time monitoring and data processing；Step 4 determines that unit statisticallys analyze the period
Load parameter is unloaded with rainfall, reservoir level；Step 5 determines rainfall-library hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient；Step 6 determines Compound Water
It unloads load parameter and its unloads load response parameter；Step 7 determines that Compound Water unloads load response ratio prediction model；Step 8, really
Determine critical unload of reservoirs side slope safety and loads response ratio criterion；Step 9, measurement reservoirs slope stability and determining risk are pre-
Alert grade.
2. the reservoir landslide stability prediction method according to claim 1 based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring,
It is characterized in that, step 1, the method for choosing reservoir landslide elementary exploration and monitoring point for displacement is as follows: determining landslide distribution model
Enclose with the features such as size, to select the Reasonable Arrangement mode of slope displacement monitoring point: 1. in main skating area and the rear tension of coming down
Crack cuts the key positions such as mouth n monitoring point for displacement (n >=2) of setting；2. displacement monitoring datum mark (no less than 3) is selected in
Stable basement rock or the region without deformation, form displacement monitoring and control net other than monitoring slip mass.
3. the reservoir landslide stability prediction method according to claim 2 based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring,
It is characterized in that, step 2, arrange as follows with the method for installation monitoring device: monitoring device includes rainfall monitoring device, library
Water level monitoring equipment and displacement monitoring equipment, wherein rainfall monitoring device selects Full-automatic hydrological to monitor system, supervises in side slope
The monitoring of region overlay formula is surveyed, keeps surveyed rainfall representative；Reservoir level monitoring device selects the long-range reservoir level prison of GPRS
Examining system, and laying installation is carried out according to installation requirement at slope monitoring point；Displacement monitoring equipment selects wireless GPS displacement prison
Examining system, lays displacement deformation monitoring point and displacement monitoring datum mark and installs wireless monitor and set in the monitoring location of slopes
It is standby.
4. the reservoir landslide stability prediction method according to claim 3 based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring,
It is characterized in that, step 3, the method for slope displacement and rainfall, reservoir level real-time monitoring and data processing is as follows: with certain
Time interval (day) synchronizes the rainfall to landslide area to be measured, reservoir level and displacement and is monitored, and passes through side slope place data
The moon that above-mentioned monitoring data are transferred to long-range monitoring room and carry out classification pretreatment, and then pretreatment is obtained by signal collector
Rainfall, reservoir level and the detailed typing Excel table of displacement data.
5. the reservoir landslide stability prediction method according to claim 4 based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring,
It is characterized in that, Step 4: determining that unit statistical analysis unloads the method for load parameter such as with predetermined period and rainfall, reservoir level
Under: (1) according to reservoir landslide rainfall and Reservoir Water Level rule and monitoring time interval, determines annual 12 months and be used as one
Unit statisticallys analyze and predetermined period, and statistical analysis and predetermined period number as unit of year are determined by this；(2) rainfall is determined
Amount unloads load parameter, it may be assumed that
△Ji=Ji-J0(i=1,2 ... ..., n) (2)
If rainfall increment △ Ji> 0, then determine △ JiParameter is loaded for the rainfall on landslide, is denoted as △ Ji+；On the contrary, if rainfall increment △
Ji< 0, then determine △ JiFor the rainfall uninstall parms on landslide, it is denoted as △ Ji-,
(3) determine that library water unloads load parameter, it may be assumed that its side slope reservoir level sequence is H in unit statistical analysis and predetermined periodi(i
=1,2 ... n), will monthly reservoir level HiWith reservoir level H last monthi-1Difference △ Hi(i=1,2 ... n) unloads load as library water
Sequence of differences, it may be assumed that
△Hi=Hi-Hi-1(i=1,2 ... ..., n) (3),
1. it comes down for flowing pressure type, when drawdown, slope stability decline；When library water rises, slope stability rises.
Therefore, if above-mentioned difference △ Hi< 0, then determine △ HiParameter is loaded for the library water on landslide, is denoted as △ Hi+；Conversely, then determining △ Hi
For the library water uninstall parms on landslide, it is denoted as △ Hi-。
2. when drawdown, slope stability rises for floating support Weight reduced type landslide；When library water rises, slope stability decline.
Therefore, if above-mentioned difference △ Hi< 0, then determine △ HiFor the library water uninstall parms on landslide, it is denoted as △ Hi-；Conversely, then determining △ Hi
Parameter is loaded for the library water on landslide, is denoted as △ Hi+。
6. the reservoir landslide stability prediction method according to claim 5 based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring,
It is characterized in that, step 5, determines that rainfall-library hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient method is as follows: determining that load is unloaded in the initial rainfall of side slope
Dynamic respond rate ηJLoad deflection response rate η is unloaded with initial library waterH,
Further determine that rainfall-library hydrodynamic force conversion coefficient k:
7. the reservoir landslide stability prediction method according to claim 6 based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring,
It is characterized in that, step 6, determine Compound Water unload load parameter and its unload load response parameter method it is as follows: if of that month rainfall
It is unloading effect with library water, then △ Hi-+△kJi-< 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiTo unload effect；If of that month rainfall and library
Water is loading effect, then △ Hi++k△Ji+> 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiFor loading effect；If of that month rainfall be unloading,
Library water is loading effect or rainfall is load, library water is unloading effect, then need according to practical rainfall and Reservoir Water Level amount into
Row is specific to be determined, even △ Hi-+k△Ji+< 0 or △ Hi++k△Ji-When < 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiTo unload effect；If
△Hi-+k△Ji+> 0 or △ Hi++k△Ji-When > 0, compound hydrodynamic effect △ PiFor loading effect, compound hydrodynamic force is unloaded and is joined
Number scale is △ Pi-=(△ Hi+k△Ji)-, unloading dynamic respond parameter accordingly is △ Si-, load parameter and be denoted as △ Pi+=
(△Hi+k△Ji)+, corresponding load deflection response parameter is △ Si+。
8. the reservoir landslide stability prediction method according to claim 7 based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring,
It is characterized in that, step 7, determine Compound Water unload load response ratio prediction model method it is as follows: unit statistical analysis with it is pre-
It surveys in the period respectively to compound hydrodynamic force △ PiSequence and its dynamic respond sequence △ SiIt carries out unloading the positive and negative Data-Statistics of load and takes it
Mean value respectively obtains Compound Water unloading and load statistic mean value in the periodWithUnloading response and load response statistics
Measure mean valueWith
To unload load statistic and unload load deflection response statistic as foundation, determine that side slope Compound Water unloads load response ratio mould
Type, it may be assumed that
In formula:Compound Water unloads response quautity mean value；- Compound Water loads response quautity mean value；- Compound Water unloads
Carrying capacity mean value；Compound Water loading capacity mean value.
9. the reservoir landslide stability prediction method according to claim 8 based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring,
It is characterized in that, step 8, determine that the critical method for unloading load response ratio criterion of reservoirs side slope safety is as follows: (1) side slope is unloaded
Load the determination of the stability coefficient relationship of response ratio and side slope: according to damage mechanics basic principle, the damage mould of side slope slopes
Measure DiResponse ratio γ is loaded with unloadingiThere is following quantitative relationship: D in the damage and failure rule for portraying and evaluating materiali=1-
γi, therefore, according to the damage moduli D of side slope slopesiWith stability factor of slope FiRelationship Fi=1/Di, determine that side slope is unloaded and add
There are following quantitative relationships for the stability coefficient of load response ratio and side slopeSide slope safety is critical to unload load sound
It should be than the determination of criterion: determining that the safety critical of side slope unloads load response ratio criterion according to the safety coefficient K of side slope, i.e.,Wherein, the safety coefficient K of side slope according to slope stability significance level and slope geological complicated condition degree and
" Technique Code for Building Slope Engineering " (GB50330-2002) and " hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering Slope Design specification " (DL/T5353-
2006) etc. comprehensive to determine.
10. the reservoir landslide stability prediction method according to claim 9 based on compound hydrodynamic force and displacement monitoring,
It is characterized in that, step 9, the determination of reservoirs slope stability and Risk-warning grade: is unloaded with reservoirs side slope Compound Water
Monitoring and warning kinetic parameter of the response ratio as slope stability is loaded, reservoirs slope stability is monitored and is evaluated,
Load response ratio γ is unloaded by the Compound Water to any monitoring cycleiLoad response ratio critical value is unloaded with the Compound Water of side slope
γcrCompare, the stability under the compound hydrodynamic condition of reservoirs side slope can be monitored and be evaluated, that is, work as γi≥γcrWhen,
Then determine that side slope is in stable state；Work as γi<γcrWhen, then determine that side slope plays pendulum, and works as γi<γcrWhen, opposite side
Slope carries out stability status division, and determines its warning grade according to slope stability state, it may be assumed that if 1. 0.09≤γ < γcr,
Determine that side slope is basicly stable, yellow early warning, timely reinforcing side slope and the monitoring frequency for reinforcing side slope should be issued at this time；2. if
0.05≤γ < 0.09 determines that side slope is understable, should issue orange warning at this time, withdraw the masses in time, at the same side slope carry out into
One step is reinforced；3. determining side slope i.e. by unstability if 0≤γ < 0.05, red early warning should be issued at this time, and indication side slope will occur
Integral slipping.
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| CN110160435A (en) * | 2019-04-30 | 2019-08-23 | 青岛理工大学 | The moisture content increment of load response ratio Prediction Parameters that come down and method |
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| CN112085921B (en) * | 2020-08-20 | 2022-11-11 | 青岛地质工程勘察院(青岛地质勘查开发局) | Landslide comprehensive monitoring and early warning method based on displacement and power multi-parameter |
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