CN109615262A - An evaluation method of energy internet development index based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process - Google Patents

An evaluation method of energy internet development index based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process Download PDF

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CN109615262A
CN109615262A CN201811587019.5A CN201811587019A CN109615262A CN 109615262 A CN109615262 A CN 109615262A CN 201811587019 A CN201811587019 A CN 201811587019A CN 109615262 A CN109615262 A CN 109615262A
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臧天磊
何正友
杨健维
向悦萍
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Abstract

本发明公开了一种基于模糊层次分析的能源互联网发展指数评估方法,具体方法为:首先,从清洁能源供给、清洁能源消纳与电能替代、能源互联网社会与经济效益、能源互联网产业发展4个角度构建能源互联网发展指数评估体系,建立了能源互联网发展指数评估指标集;接着,采用模糊层次分析法建立发展指数评估指标赋权优化模型;进而,采用粒子群优化算法求解评估指标赋权优化模型,给出评估指标的权重;最后,根据各指标数据评分和指标权重,计算能源互联网发展指数评估结果;本发明方法采用的能源互联网发展指数评估指标系统全面,评估方法易于理解,且具有较强的可操作性,保证了能源互联网发展指数评估的合理性。

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the development index of energy internet based on fuzzy hierarchy analysis. The energy Internet development index evaluation system is constructed from the perspective, and the energy Internet development index evaluation index set is established; then, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to establish the development index evaluation index weighting optimization model; then, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the evaluation index weighting optimization model , the weight of the evaluation index is given; finally, according to the score of each index data and the index weight, the evaluation result of the energy Internet development index is calculated; the energy Internet development index evaluation index adopted by the method of the present invention is comprehensive, the evaluation method is easy to understand, and has strong The operability ensures the rationality of the evaluation of the Energy Internet Development Index.

Description

一种基于模糊层次分析的能源互联网发展指数评估方法An evaluation method of energy internet development index based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

技术领域technical field

本发明涉及能源互联网技术领域,具体涉及一种基于模糊层次分析的能源互联网发展指数评估方法。The invention relates to the technical field of energy internet, in particular to an energy internet development index evaluation method based on fuzzy hierarchy analysis.

背景技术Background technique

近几年,能源互联网正在促进能源生产和利用的深刻变革,驱动能源和经济快速转型升级。能源互联网是一个由能量流、信息流深度耦合的复杂系统,它综合利用风能、太阳能等清洁能源以及电动汽车、储能等资源,通过多能流互联互通促进清洁能源大规模高效消纳,是降低能源消耗、提高能源利用效率的有效途径。目前,我国已经具备了能源互联网建设和生产条件,但是还缺乏简便易行、行之有效的能源互联网发展评估工具与方法。In recent years, the Energy Internet is promoting profound changes in energy production and utilization, driving the rapid transformation and upgrading of energy and economy. Energy Internet is a complex system deeply coupled by energy flow and information flow. It comprehensively utilizes clean energy such as wind energy and solar energy, as well as resources such as electric vehicles and energy storage, and promotes large-scale and efficient consumption of clean energy through the interconnection of multiple energy flows. An effective way to reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency. At present, my country already has the conditions for the construction and production of the energy Internet, but there is still a lack of simple and effective evaluation tools and methods for the development of the energy Internet.

随着能源互联网技术的发展,亟需从清洁能源供给、清洁能源消纳与电能替代、能源互联网社会与经济效益、能源互联网产业发展4个角度构建能源互联网发展指数评估体系,从多视角、多层面表征能源互联网发展的真实水平;采用决策评估理论与方法,给出能源互联网发展指数评估方法。传统的层次分析法无法刻画对评估指标重要程度的模糊认识,对能源互联网的政策制定、规划建设、投资咨询很难提供参考。With the development of energy Internet technology, it is urgent to build an energy Internet development index evaluation system from four perspectives: clean energy supply, clean energy consumption and electric energy substitution, energy Internet social and economic benefits, and energy Internet industry development. The level represents the real level of the development of the energy Internet; using the decision-making evaluation theory and method, the evaluation method of the energy Internet development index is given. The traditional analytic hierarchy process cannot describe the vague understanding of the importance of evaluation indicators, and it is difficult to provide reference for policy formulation, planning and construction, and investment consultation of energy Internet.

发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

针对上述问题,本发明提供一种基于模糊层次分析的能源互联网发展指数评估方法,用以综合评价能源互联网的发展状况,为能源互联网的建设提供参考。技术方案如下:In view of the above problems, the present invention provides a method for evaluating the development index of the energy Internet based on the fuzzy analysis hierarchy process, which is used to comprehensively evaluate the development status of the energy Internet and provide a reference for the construction of the energy Internet. The technical solution is as follows:

一种基于模糊层次分析的能源互联网发展指数评估方法,包括以下步骤:An energy Internet development index evaluation method based on fuzzy AHP, comprising the following steps:

步骤1:构建能源互联网发展指数评估指标集,采集各指标数据并给出其评分;Step 1: Construct the energy Internet development index evaluation index set, collect the data of each index and give its score;

步骤2:采用模糊层次分析法建立发展指数评估指标赋权优化模型;Step 2: Use the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to establish the development index evaluation index weighting optimization model;

步骤3:采用粒子群优化算法求解评估指标赋权优化模型,给出评估指标的权重;Step 3: Use the particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the evaluation index weighting optimization model, and give the weight of the evaluation index;

步骤4:根据各指标数据评分和指标权重,计算能源互联网发展指数评估结果。Step 4: Calculate the evaluation result of the Energy Internet Development Index according to the score of each indicator data and the indicator weight.

根据能源互联网的发展特点,从清洁能源供给、清洁能源消纳与电能替代、能源互联网社会与经济效益、能源互联网产业发展4个角度构建能源互联网发展指数评估体系(即:以清洁能源供给、清洁能源消纳与电能替代、能源互联网社会与经济效益、能源互联网产业发展为一级评估指标)。各一级评估指标包含的二级评估指标有:According to the development characteristics of the Energy Internet, the energy Internet development index evaluation system is constructed from four perspectives: clean energy supply, clean energy consumption and electric energy substitution, energy Internet social and economic benefits, and energy Internet industry development (ie: clean energy supply, clean energy Energy consumption and electric energy substitution, energy Internet social and economic benefits, and energy Internet industry development are the first-level evaluation indicators). The second-level evaluation indicators included in each first-level evaluation index are:

a、清洁能源供给a. Clean energy supply

1)清洁能源发电装机容量。该指标是风力发电、光伏发电等清洁能源发电机组额定功率的总和;1) Installed capacity of clean energy power generation. This indicator is the sum of the rated power of wind power, photovoltaic power and other clean energy generating units;

2)清洁供暖率。该指标表征以煤改电、煤改气、地热等清洁方式进行供暖的比例;2) Clean heating rate. This indicator represents the proportion of heating by coal-to-electricity, coal-to-gas, geothermal and other clean methods;

3)弃风率。该指标反映了因用电需求不足或电网接纳能力不足而导致风机停止发电的多少;3) Abandoned wind rate. This indicator reflects the number of wind turbines that stop generating electricity due to insufficient electricity demand or insufficient grid capacity;

4)弃光率。该指标反映了因用电需求不足或电网接纳能力不足而导致光伏停止发电的多少;4) Light rejection rate. This indicator reflects the number of photovoltaics that stop generating electricity due to insufficient electricity demand or insufficient grid capacity;

b、清洁能源消纳与电能替代b. Clean energy consumption and electric energy substitution

1)清洁能源消费占比。该指标反映清洁能源消费量占能源消费总量的比例;1) The proportion of clean energy consumption. This indicator reflects the proportion of clean energy consumption in total energy consumption;

2)清洁能源外送容量。该指标反映清洁能源发电基地向负荷中心输送能量的水平;2) Clean energy delivery capacity. This indicator reflects the level of energy delivered by the clean energy power generation base to the load center;

3)电动汽车保有量占比。该指标表征以车载电源为动力的汽车在全部汽车中所占比例;3) The proportion of electric vehicle ownership. This indicator represents the proportion of vehicles powered by on-board power supply in all vehicles;

4)储能容量。该指标表征所在区域内储能系统储存能量的能力;4) Energy storage capacity. This indicator represents the ability of the energy storage system to store energy in the area;

c、成长能力相关指标c. Indicators related to growth ability

1)停电时长。该指标指所在区域内因故障或检修等原因导致的总停电时间;1) The duration of the power outage. This indicator refers to the total power outage time caused by faults or maintenance in the area;

2)二氧化碳排放量下降。该指标反映因能源互联网发展,减少的二氧化碳排放量;2) Carbon dioxide emissions have decreased. This indicator reflects the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions due to the development of the Energy Internet;

3)能源投资收益率。该指标反映能源互联网年净收益总额与投资总额的比率;3) Return on energy investment. This indicator reflects the ratio of the total annual net income of the Energy Internet to the total investment;

d、社会效益相关指标d. Indicators related to social benefits

1)产业结构合理化程度。该指标刻画能源互联网产业结构与社会经济发展的吻合程度;1) The degree of rationalization of the industrial structure. This indicator depicts the degree of conformity between the energy Internet industry structure and social and economic development;

2)能源企业注册量。该指标反映能源互联网发展过程中,催生的能源相关企业数量;2) The number of registered energy companies. This indicator reflects the number of energy-related companies spawned during the development of the Energy Internet;

3)智能能源装备普及率。该指标表征能源互联网中智能设备或仪器仪表的使用量。3) The penetration rate of smart energy equipment. This indicator represents the usage of smart devices or instruments in the Energy Internet.

在构建能源互联网发展指数评估指标集的基础上,采集评估区域的指标数据,并采用百分值对各指标数据进行评分,将待评估的能源互联网发展模式记作Eo(o=1,2,…,O),其中第p个评估指标为Cp(p=1,2,…,P),其中,O是能源互联网发展模式总数,P是评估指标总数,xop表示第o个能源互联网发展模式的第p个评估指标的取值;sop为对指标值xop的评分,sop∈[0,100]。On the basis of constructing the evaluation index set of the energy Internet development index, the index data of the evaluation area is collected, and the percentage value is used to score each index data, and the energy Internet development model to be evaluated is recorded as E o (o=1,2 ,…,O), where the p-th evaluation indicator is C p (p=1,2,…,P), where O is the total number of energy Internet development models, P is the total number of evaluation indicators, and x op represents the o-th energy The value of the p-th evaluation index of the Internet development model; s op is the score of the index value x op , s op ∈ [0,100].

进一步的,步骤2具体为:Further, step 2 is specifically:

(1)将不确定比较判断表示为三角模糊数:(1) Express the uncertain comparison judgment as a triangular fuzzy number:

采用模糊集理论将不确定比较判断表示为三角模糊数,以表征模糊相对重要性,在给定论域U上,对任何χ∈U,一个三角模糊集都有一个三角模糊隶属度与之对应,其表达式如下:Using fuzzy set theory, the uncertain comparison judgment is expressed as a triangular fuzzy number to represent the relative importance of fuzzy. In a given universe U, for any χ∈U, a triangular fuzzy set has a triangular fuzzy membership Correspondingly, its expression is as follows:

式中,l,m,u分别表示描述模糊事件的最小可能值、最有可能值和最大可能值,表示模糊数,记为(l,m,u);In the formula, l, m, u represent the minimum possible value, the most likely value and the maximum possible value describing the fuzzy event, respectively, Represents a fuzzy number, denoted as (l,m,u);

(2)建立模糊层次分析模型:(2) Establish a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model:

a、构建决策层次结构:与传统的层次分析法类似,首先是将决策问题分解为层次结构,即步骤1中的一级评估指标层和二级评估指标层;a. Constructing a decision-making hierarchy: Similar to the traditional AHP, the first step is to decompose the decision-making problem into a hierarchical structure, that is, the first-level evaluation index layer and the second-level evaluation index layer in step 1;

b、生成成对模糊比较矩阵:对具有n个元素的优先级问题,其中,一级指标n=4;二级指标n=3或4,其中成对比较判断由模糊三角数表示,在此基础上,构造正则模糊倒数比较矩阵:b. Generating a pairwise fuzzy comparison matrix: for a priority problem with n elements, the first-level index n=4; the second-level index n=3 or 4, where the pairwise comparison judgment is determined by the fuzzy triangular number Representation, on this basis, construct the regular fuzzy reciprocal comparison matrix:

c、一致性检验和优先级推导:此步骤检验一致性,并根据成对比较矩阵推导优先级,若则正则模糊比较矩阵是一致的,其中,i,j,k=1,2,…,n,表示模糊乘法,≈表示模糊等于;一旦成对比较矩阵通过一致性检验,即采用传统层次分析方法计算模糊优先级然后,利用成对比较矩阵得到局部优先级权重向量(w1,w2,…,wn)Tc. Consistency check and priority derivation: This step checks the consistency and derives the priority according to the pairwise comparison matrix, if then the regular fuzzy comparison matrix is consistent, where i,j,k=1,2,...,n, means fuzzy multiplication, ≈ means fuzzy equals; once the matrices are compared pairwise Pass the consistency check, that is, use the traditional AHP method to calculate the fuzzy priority Then, use the pairwise comparison matrix to obtain the local priority weight vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w n ) T ;

d、全局优先级的汇总,即最终权重值的确定:采用加权和方法,将在决策层次的不同级别获得的局部优先级权重汇总为综合全局优先级,即最终权重值(W1,W2,…,Wp,…,WP)Td. Aggregation of global priorities, that is, the determination of the final weight value: using the weighted sum method, the local priority weights obtained at different levels of the decision-making hierarchy are summarized into a comprehensive global priority, that is, the final weight value (W 1 , W 2 ) ,…,W p ,…,W P ) T ;

(3)建立模糊优化模型:(3) Establish a fuzzy optimization model:

判断矩阵的元素是由模糊三角数表示的成对比较比率组成,其中i,j=1,2,...,n;此外,假设当i≠j时lij<mij<uij,如果i=j,那么因此,由正则模糊数成对比较矩阵推导出的权重值向量(w1,w2,…,wn)T必须满足模糊不等式:The elements of the judgment matrix are composed of fuzzy triangular numbers represented by pairwise comparison ratios where i,j=1,2,...,n; furthermore, assuming that when i≠j l ij < m ij <u ij , if i=j, then Therefore, the matrices are compared pairwise by regular fuzzy numbers The derived weight value vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,…,w n ) T must satisfy the fuzzy inequalities:

式中,wi>0,wj>0,i≠j,表示模糊小于或等于;In the formula, w i > 0, w j > 0, i≠j, Indicates fuzzy less than or equal to;

为了衡量不同比率对于上式双边不等式的满意度,将新的隶属函数定义为:In order to measure the satisfaction of different ratios to the above bilateral inequality, the new membership function is defined as:

式中,i≠j,μij(wi/wj)的值可以大于1,并且在区间(0,mij]上线性减小,在区间[mij,∞)上线性增加;μij(wi/wj)的越小则表明wi/wj值越可接受;In the formula, i≠j, the value of μ ij ( wi /w j ) can be greater than 1, and decreases linearly in the interval (0,m ij ] and increases linearly in the interval [m ij ,∞); μ ij The smaller the value of ( wi /w j ), the more acceptable the value of w i /w j is;

为了确定权重值向量(w1,w2,…,wn)T,所有wi/wj的精确比率应该满足n(n-1)/2个模糊比较判断,即wi/wj应该满足:其中,由此,μij(wi/wj)的最小化模型可用来求解权重值向量(w1,w2,…,wn)T,如下式所示:In order to determine the weight value vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w n ) T , all the exact ratios of w i /w j should satisfy n(n-1)/2 fuzzy comparison judgments, that is, w i /w j should Satisfy: in, Thus, the minimization model of μ ij ( wi /w j ) can be used to solve the weight value vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,…,w n ) T as follows:

上式需满足:The above formula needs to satisfy:

式中,i≠j,δ是Heaviside函数:In the formula, i≠j, δ is the Heaviside function:

进一步的,步骤3具体为:Further, step 3 is specifically:

步骤2中的最小化模型是一个约束非线性优化模型,令χi=μij(wi/wj),i,j=1,2,…,n,则minJ(w1,w2,...,wn)优化模型形如The minimization model in step 2 is a constrained nonlinear optimization model. Let χ i = μ ij ( wi /w j ), i,j=1,2,...,n, then minJ(w 1 ,w 2 , ...,w n ) The optimization model is in the form of

因此,可以应用粒子群优化算法求解权重值向量(w1,w2,…,wn)T,首先,将minJ(w1,w2,...,wn)优化问题刻画为:Therefore, the particle swarm optimization algorithm can be applied to solve the weight value vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w n ) T . First, the minJ(w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w n ) optimization problem is described as:

进而,采用以下步骤进行求解:Then, the following steps are used to solve:

a)设置控制参数和迭代次数t=1;a) Set the control parameters and the number of iterations t=1;

b)初始化粒子i的位置χi和速度vib) initialize the position χ i and velocity vi of particle i ;

c)更新每个粒子的位置pic) update the position p i of each particle;

d)评估每个粒子的适应度函数f(χ12,...,χn);d) Evaluate the fitness function f(χ 12 ,...,χ n ) of each particle;

e)更新每个粒子的个体最佳位置pid(t)和群体最佳位置pgd(t);e) Update the individual best position p id (t) and the group best position p gd (t) of each particle;

f)如果f(χ12,…,χn)<pgd(t),则输出最佳位置(全局解);f) If f(χ 12 ,...,χ n )<p gd (t), output the best position (global solution);

g)否则,更新迭代次数,t=t+1,并重复步骤c~f。g) Otherwise, update the number of iterations, t=t+1, and repeat steps c-f.

进一步的,步骤4具体为:Further, step 4 is specifically:

由各指标的权重(W1,W2,…,Wp,…,WP)T与指标值评分sop,得指标的加权评分:From the weights (W 1 , W 2 ,...,W p ,...,W P ) T of each index and the index value score s op , the weighted score of the index is obtained:

qop=Wjsop(o=1,2,…,O;p=1,2,…,P)q op = W j s op (o=1,2,...,O; p=1,2,...,P)

最终,求得各能源互联网发展模式的指数评估值:Finally, the index evaluation value of each energy Internet development model is obtained:

本发明的有益效果是:本发明综合考虑能源互联网发展中清洁能源供给、清洁能源消纳与电能替代、能源互联网社会与经济效益、能源互联网产业发展等因素,给出了能源互联网发展指数评估方法,构筑了系统全面的发展指数评估指标集,能较全面反映能源互联网的发展特性和规律;同时,相比于传统的层次分析法,采用三角模糊数、模糊层次分析和粒子群优化算法给出评估指标的权重,能较好地考虑的指标相对重要度的模糊性,更接近于专家认知,具有易于理解的优点。The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the present invention comprehensively considers factors such as clean energy supply, clean energy consumption and electric energy replacement, energy Internet social and economic benefits, and energy Internet industry development in the development of energy Internet, and provides an energy Internet development index evaluation method , builds a systematic and comprehensive development index evaluation index set, which can more comprehensively reflect the development characteristics and laws of the energy Internet; at the same time, compared with the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the triangular fuzzy number, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and particle swarm optimization algorithm are used to give The weight of the evaluation index, the ambiguity of the relative importance of the index that can be better considered, is closer to the cognition of experts, and has the advantage of being easy to understand.

附图说明Description of drawings

图1为本发明的流程图。FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention.

图2为能源互联网发展指数评估系统的内核结构。Figure 2 shows the core structure of the Energy Internet Development Index Evaluation System.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

下面结合附图和具体实施例对本发明做进一步详细说明。The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

如图1所示,本发明提出一种基于优化模糊层次分析的能源互联网发展指数评估方法,具体步骤如下:As shown in Figure 1, the present invention proposes an energy Internet development index evaluation method based on optimized fuzzy AHP, and the specific steps are as follows:

步骤1:构建能源互联网发展指数评估指标集,采集各指标数据并给出其评分Step 1: Construct the evaluation index set of the energy Internet development index, collect the data of each index and give its score

根据能源互联网的发展特点,从清洁能源供给、清洁能源消纳与电能替代、能源互联网社会与经济效益、能源互联网产业发展4个角度构建能源互联网发展指数评估体系(即:以清洁能源供给、清洁能源消纳与电能替代、能源互联网社会与经济效益、能源互联网产业发展为一级评估指标)。各一级评估指标包含的二级评估指标有:According to the development characteristics of the Energy Internet, the energy Internet development index evaluation system is constructed from four perspectives: clean energy supply, clean energy consumption and electric energy substitution, energy Internet social and economic benefits, and energy Internet industry development (ie: clean energy supply, clean energy Energy consumption and electric energy substitution, energy Internet social and economic benefits, and energy Internet industry development are the first-level evaluation indicators). The second-level evaluation indicators included in each first-level evaluation index are:

a、清洁能源供给a. Clean energy supply

1)清洁能源发电装机容量。该指标是风力发电、光伏发电等清洁能源发电机组额定功率的总和;1) Installed capacity of clean energy power generation. This indicator is the sum of the rated power of wind power, photovoltaic power and other clean energy generating units;

2)清洁供暖率。该指标表征以煤改电、煤改气、地热等清洁方式进行供暖的比例;2) Clean heating rate. This indicator represents the proportion of heating by coal-to-electricity, coal-to-gas, geothermal and other clean methods;

3)弃风率。该指标反映了因用电需求不足或电网接纳能力不足而导致风机停止发电的多少;3) Abandoned wind rate. This indicator reflects the number of wind turbines that stop generating electricity due to insufficient electricity demand or insufficient grid capacity;

4)弃光率。该指标反映了因用电需求不足或电网接纳能力不足而导致光伏停止发电的多少;4) Light rejection rate. This indicator reflects the number of photovoltaics that stop generating electricity due to insufficient electricity demand or insufficient grid capacity;

b、清洁能源消纳与电能替代b. Clean energy consumption and electric energy substitution

1)清洁能源消费占比。该指标反映清洁能源消费量占能源消费总量的比例;1) The proportion of clean energy consumption. This indicator reflects the proportion of clean energy consumption in total energy consumption;

2)清洁能源外送容量。该指标反映清洁能源发电基地向负荷中心输送能量的水平;2) Clean energy delivery capacity. This indicator reflects the level of energy delivered by the clean energy power generation base to the load center;

3)电动汽车保有量占比。该指标表征以车载电源为动力的汽车在全部汽车中所占比例;3) The proportion of electric vehicle ownership. This indicator represents the proportion of vehicles powered by on-board power supply in all vehicles;

4)储能容量。该指标表征所在区域内储能系统储存能量的能力;4) Energy storage capacity. This indicator represents the ability of the energy storage system to store energy in the area;

c、成长能力相关指标c. Indicators related to growth ability

1)停电时长。该指标指所在区域内因故障或检修等原因导致的总停电时间;1) The duration of the power outage. This indicator refers to the total power outage time caused by faults or maintenance in the area;

2)二氧化碳排放量下降。该指标反映因能源互联网发展,减少的二氧化碳排放量;2) Carbon dioxide emissions have decreased. This indicator reflects the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions due to the development of the Energy Internet;

3)能源投资收益率。该指标反映能源互联网年净收益总额与投资总额的比率;3) Return on energy investment. This indicator reflects the ratio of the total annual net income of the Energy Internet to the total investment;

d、社会效益相关指标d. Indicators related to social benefits

1)产业结构合理化程度。该指标刻画能源互联网产业结构与社会经济发展的吻合程度;1) The degree of rationalization of the industrial structure. This indicator depicts the degree of conformity between the energy Internet industry structure and social and economic development;

2)能源企业注册量。该指标反映能源互联网发展过程中,催生的能源相关企业数量;2) The number of registered energy companies. This indicator reflects the number of energy-related companies spawned during the development of the Energy Internet;

3)智能能源装备普及率。该指标表征能源互联网中智能设备或仪器仪表的使用量。3) The penetration rate of smart energy equipment. This indicator represents the usage of smart devices or instruments in the Energy Internet.

在构建能源互联网发展指数评估指标集的基础上,采集评估区域的指标数据,并采用百分值对各指标数据进行评分,将待评估的能源互联网发展模式记作Eo(o=1,2,…,O),其中第p个评估指标为Cp(p=1,2,…,P),其中,O是能源互联网发展模式总数,P是评估指标总数,xop表示第o个能源互联网发展模式的第p个评估指标的取值;sop为对指标值xop的评分,sop∈[0,100]。On the basis of constructing the evaluation index set of the energy Internet development index, the index data of the evaluation area is collected, and the percentage value is used to score each index data, and the energy Internet development model to be evaluated is recorded as E o (o=1,2 ,…,O), where the p-th evaluation indicator is C p (p=1,2,…,P), where O is the total number of energy Internet development models, P is the total number of evaluation indicators, and x op represents the o-th energy The value of the p-th evaluation index of the Internet development model; s op is the score of the index value x op , s op ∈ [0,100].

步骤2:采用模糊层次分析法建立发展指数评估指标赋权优化模型Step 2: Use Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to establish a development index evaluation index weighting optimization model

2.1将不确定比较判断表示为三角模糊数:2.1 Express the uncertain comparison judgment as a triangular fuzzy number:

采用模糊集理论将不确定比较判断表示为三角模糊数,以表征模糊相对重要性,在给定论域U上,对任何χ∈U,一个三角模糊集都有一个三角模糊隶属度与之对应,其表达式如下:Using fuzzy set theory, the uncertain comparison judgment is expressed as a triangular fuzzy number to represent the relative importance of fuzzy. In a given universe U, for any χ∈U, a triangular fuzzy set has a triangular fuzzy membership Correspondingly, its expression is as follows:

式中,l,m,u分别表示描述模糊事件的最小可能值、最有可能值和最大可能值,表示模糊数,记为(l,m,u);In the formula, l, m, u represent the minimum possible value, the most likely value and the maximum possible value describing the fuzzy event, respectively, Represents a fuzzy number, denoted as (l,m,u);

2.2建立模糊层次分析模型:2.2 Establish a fuzzy AHP model:

a、构建决策层次结构:与传统的层次分析法类似,首先是将决策问题分解为层次结构,即步骤1中的一级评估指标层和二级评估指标层;a. Constructing a decision-making hierarchy: Similar to the traditional AHP, the first step is to decompose the decision-making problem into a hierarchical structure, that is, the first-level evaluation index layer and the second-level evaluation index layer in step 1;

b、生成成对模糊比较矩阵:对具有n个元素的优先级问题,其中,一级指标n=4;二级指标n=3或4,其中成对比较判断由模糊三角数表示,在此基础上,构造正则模糊倒数比较矩阵:b. Generating a pairwise fuzzy comparison matrix: for a priority problem with n elements, the first-level index n=4; the second-level index n=3 or 4, where the pairwise comparison judgment is determined by the fuzzy triangular number Representation, on this basis, construct the regular fuzzy reciprocal comparison matrix:

c、一致性检验和优先级推导:此步骤检验一致性,并根据成对比较矩阵推导优先级,若则正则模糊比较矩阵是一致的,其中,i,j,k=1,2,…,n,表示模糊乘法,≈表示模糊等于;一旦成对比较矩阵通过一致性检验,即采用传统层次分析方法计算模糊优先级然后,利用成对比较矩阵得到局部优先级权重向量(w1,w2,…,wn)Tc. Consistency check and priority derivation: This step checks the consistency and derives the priority according to the pairwise comparison matrix, if then the regular fuzzy comparison matrix is consistent, where i,j,k=1,2,...,n, means fuzzy multiplication, ≈ means fuzzy equals; once the matrices are compared pairwise Pass the consistency check, that is, use the traditional AHP method to calculate the fuzzy priority Then, use the pairwise comparison matrix to obtain the local priority weight vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w n ) T ;

d、全局优先级的汇总,即最终权重值的确定:采用加权和方法,将在决策层次的不同级别获得的局部优先级权重汇总为综合全局优先级,即最终权重值(W1,W2,…,Wp,…,WP)Td. Aggregation of global priorities, that is, the determination of the final weight value: using the weighted sum method, the local priority weights obtained at different levels of the decision-making hierarchy are summarized into a comprehensive global priority, that is, the final weight value (W 1 , W 2 ) ,…,W p ,…,W P ) T ;

2.3建立模糊优化模型:2.3 Establish a fuzzy optimization model:

判断矩阵的元素是由模糊三角数表示的成对比较比率组成,其中i,j=1,2,...,n;此外,假设当i≠j时lij<mij<uij,如果i=j,那么因此,由正则模糊数成对比较矩阵推导出的权重值向量(w1,w2,…,wn)T必须满足模糊不等式:The elements of the judgment matrix are composed of fuzzy triangular numbers represented by pairwise comparison ratios where i,j=1,2,...,n; furthermore, assuming that when i≠j l ij < m ij <u ij , if i=j, then Therefore, the matrices are compared pairwise by regular fuzzy numbers The derived weight value vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,…,w n ) T must satisfy the fuzzy inequalities:

式中,wi>0,wj>0,i≠j,表示模糊小于或等于;In the formula, w i > 0, w j > 0, i≠j, Indicates fuzzy less than or equal to;

为了衡量不同比率对于上式双边不等式的满意度,将新的隶属函数定义为:In order to measure the satisfaction of different ratios to the above bilateral inequality, the new membership function is defined as:

式中,i≠j,μij(wi/wj)的值可以大于1,并且在区间(0,mij]上线性减小,在区间[mij,∞)上线性增加;μij(wi/wj)的越小则表明wi/wj值越可接受;In the formula, i≠j, the value of μ ij ( wi /w j ) can be greater than 1, and decreases linearly in the interval (0,m ij ] and increases linearly in the interval [m ij ,∞); μ ij The smaller the value of ( wi /w j ), the more acceptable the value of w i /w j is;

为了确定权重值向量(w1,w2,…,wn)T,所有wi/wj的精确比率应该满足n(n-1)/2个模糊比较判断,即wi/wj应该满足:其中,由此,μij(wi/wj)的最小化模型可用来求解权重值向量(w1,w2,…,wn)T,如下式所示:In order to determine the weight value vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w n ) T , all the exact ratios of w i /w j should satisfy n(n-1)/2 fuzzy comparison judgments, that is, w i /w j should Satisfy: in, Thus, the minimization model of μ ij ( wi /w j ) can be used to solve the weight value vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,…,w n ) T as follows:

上式需满足:The above formula needs to satisfy:

式中,i≠j,δ是Heaviside函数:In the formula, i≠j, δ is the Heaviside function:

步骤3:采用粒子群优化算法求解评估指标赋权优化模型,给出评估指标的权重Step 3: Use the particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the evaluation index weighting optimization model, and give the weight of the evaluation index

步骤2中的最小化模型是一个约束非线性优化模型,令χi=μij(wi/wj),i,j=1,2,…,n,则minJ(w1,w2,...,wn)优化模型形如The minimization model in step 2 is a constrained nonlinear optimization model. Let χ i = μ ij ( wi /w j ), i,j=1,2,...,n, then minJ(w 1 ,w 2 , ...,w n ) The optimization model is in the form of

因此,可以应用粒子群优化算法求解权重值向量(w1,w2,…,wn)T,首先,将minJ(w1,w2,...,wn)优化问题刻画为:Therefore, the particle swarm optimization algorithm can be applied to solve the weight value vector (w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w n ) T . First, the minJ(w 1 ,w 2 ,...,w n ) optimization problem is described as:

进而,采用以下步骤进行求解:Then, the following steps are used to solve:

h)设置控制参数和迭代次数t=1;h) Set the control parameters and the number of iterations t=1;

i)初始化粒子i的位置χi和速度vii) initialize the position χ i and velocity vi of particle i ;

j)更新每个粒子的位置pij) update the position p i of each particle;

k)评估每个粒子的适应度函数f(χ12,...,χn);k) evaluating the fitness function f(χ 12 ,...,χ n ) of each particle;

l)更新每个粒子的个体最佳位置pid(t)和群体最佳位置pgd(t);l) Update the individual best position p id (t) and the group best position p gd (t) of each particle;

m)如果f(χ12,...,χn)<pgd(t),则输出最佳位置(全局解);m) If f(χ 12 ,...,χ n )<p gd (t), output the best position (global solution);

n)否则,更新迭代次数,t=t+1,并重复步骤c~f。n) Otherwise, update the number of iterations, t=t+1, and repeat steps c~f.

步骤4:根据各指标数据评分和权重,计算能源互联网发展指数评估结果Step 4: Calculate the evaluation results of the Energy Internet Development Index according to the scores and weights of each indicator data

由各指标的权重(W1,W2,…,Wp,…,WP)T与指标值评分sop,得指标的加权评分:From the weights (W 1 , W 2 ,...,W p ,...,W P ) T of each index and the index value score s op , the weighted score of the index is obtained:

qop=Wjsop(o=1,2,…,O;p=1,2,…,P)q op = W j s op (o=1,2,...,O; p=1,2,...,P)

最终,求得各能源互联网发展模式的指数评估值:Finally, the index evaluation value of each energy Internet development model is obtained:

实施例Example

采集2017年某城市能源系统数据,同时根据国家能源领域的“十三五”发展规划及中长期规划,对该城市2020年和2030年的能源互联网发展指数评估指标进行模拟计算,形成城市能源互联网发展指数评估指标数据,如表1所示;对城市能源互联网发展指数评估指标进行评分,如表2所示。Collect the data of a city's energy system in 2017, and simulate the city's energy Internet development index evaluation indicators in 2020 and 2030 according to the "13th Five-Year" development plan and medium and long-term plan in the national energy field to form an urban energy Internet. The development index evaluation index data is shown in Table 1; the evaluation index of the urban energy Internet development index is scored, as shown in Table 2.

表1城市能源互联网发展指数评估指标(2017、2020和2030年)Table 1 Evaluation Indicators of Urban Energy Interconnection Development Index (2017, 2020 and 2030)

表2城市能源互联网发展指数评估指标评分(2017、2020和2030年)Table 2 Evaluation Index Scores of Urban Energy Interconnection Development Index (2017, 2020 and 2030)

本发明中,模糊层次分析中采用的模糊评判标准和模糊评分如表3所示。In the present invention, the fuzzy evaluation criteria and fuzzy scores used in the fuzzy AHP are shown in Table 3.

表3模糊层次分析中的模糊评判标准与模糊评分Table 3 Fuzzy evaluation criteria and fuzzy scores in fuzzy AHP

表中x=2,3,9&y,z=1,2,…,9&y<z.In the table x=2,3,9&y,z=1,2,...,9&y<z.

对一级指标的相对重要性进行模糊评判(记作A1),给出相应的模糊评分,如表4所示,进而采用优化模糊层次分析法计算出一级指标的权重。The relative importance of the first-level indicators is fuzzy judged (denoted as A1), and the corresponding fuzzy scores are given, as shown in Table 4, and then the weight of the first-level indicators is calculated by the optimized fuzzy AHP.

表4一级指标的模糊评分Table 4 Fuzzy scoring of first-level indicators

得到的一级指标权重为wA1=(0.4706,0.2154,0.2154,0.0986)TThe obtained first-level indicator weight is w A1 =(0.4706,0.2154,0.2154,0.0986) T .

对各一级指标下的二级指标的相对重要性进行模糊评判(分别记作B1~B4),给出相应的模糊评分,如表5~8所示,进而采用优化模糊层次分析法计算出二级指标的权重。Fuzzy evaluation is carried out on the relative importance of the second-level indicators under each first-level index (respectively denoted as B1-B4), and the corresponding fuzzy scores are given, as shown in Tables 5-8, and then calculated by the optimized fuzzy AHP. The weight of the secondary indicator.

表5二级指标B1的模糊评分Table 5 Fuzzy score of secondary indicator B1

得到的指标权重为wB1=(0.5282,0.2469,0.1124,0.1124)TThe obtained indicator weight is w B1 =(0.5282,0.2469,0.1124,0.1124) T .

表6二级指标B2的模糊评分Table 6 Fuzzy score of secondary indicator B2

得到的指标权重为wB2=(0.5282,0.2469,0.1124,0.1124)TThe obtained indicator weight is w B2 =(0.5282,0.2469,0.1124,0.1124) T .

表7二级指标B3的模糊评分Table 7 Fuzzy score of secondary indicator B3

得到的指标权重为wB3=(0.5981,0.2752,0.1267)TThe obtained indicator weight is w B3 =(0.5981, 0.2752, 0.1267) T .

表8二级指标B4的模糊评分Table 8 Fuzzy score of secondary indicator B4

得到的指标权重为wB4=(0.5981,0.2752,0.1267)TThe obtained indicator weight is w B4 =(0.5981, 0.2752, 0.1267) T .

综合上述结果,将优化模糊层次分析得出的权重结果列于表9中。Based on the above results, the weight results obtained by optimizing the fuzzy AHP are listed in Table 9.

表9城市能源互联网发展指数评估指标权重(2017、2020和2030年)Table 9 Weights of Evaluation Indicators for Urban Energy Interconnection Development Index (2017, 2020 and 2030)

根据各指标的权重和相应的指标值评分,求得各能源互联网发展模式的指数评估值,如表10所示。According to the weight of each indicator and the corresponding indicator value score, the index evaluation value of each energy Internet development model is obtained, as shown in Table 10.

表10城市能源互联网发展指数评估值(2017、2020和2030年)Table 10 Evaluation Values of Urban Energy Interconnection Development Index (2017, 2020 and 2030)

本发明从清洁能源供给、清洁能源消纳与电能替代、能源互联网社会与经济效益、能源互联网产业发展等视角,提出了能源互联网发展评估体系,并给出了评估计算方法,以保障能源互联网发展指数评估的系统性和实用性。The invention proposes an evaluation system for the development of the energy Internet from the perspectives of clean energy supply, clean energy consumption and electric energy substitution, energy Internet social and economic benefits, and energy Internet industry development, etc., and provides an evaluation calculation method to ensure the development of the energy Internet. Systematic and practical index assessment.

本发明方法预期可产生“能源互联网发展指数评估系统”(其内核结构如图2所示),以科学评估能源互联网发展水平,找出影响发展指数的薄弱环节,并据此提出能源互联网建设和生产策略,指明亟待突破和建立的能源环节,以实现节能降耗、增强系统灵活性、产生更大的经济效益,为能源互联网的持续发展提供重要辅助。The method of the present invention is expected to generate an "Energy Internet Development Index Evaluation System" (the core structure of which is shown in Figure 2), to scientifically evaluate the development level of the Energy Internet, find out the weak links that affect the development index, and accordingly propose the construction and development of the Energy Internet. The production strategy specifies the energy links that need to be broken through and established urgently to achieve energy conservation and consumption reduction, enhance system flexibility, generate greater economic benefits, and provide important assistance for the sustainable development of the Energy Internet.

Claims (6)

1. An energy Internet development index assessment method based on fuzzy hierarchical analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: constructing an energy Internet development index evaluation index set, collecting each index data and giving a score;
step 2: establishing a development index evaluation index weighting optimization model by adopting a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process;
and step 3: solving an evaluation index weighting optimization model by adopting a particle swarm optimization algorithm, and giving the weight of an evaluation index;
and 4, step 4: and calculating an energy Internet development index evaluation result according to the index data scores and the index weights.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the energy internet development index evaluation indexes comprise 4 primary evaluation indexes, namely clean energy supply, clean energy consumption and electric energy replacement, energy internet social and economic benefits, and energy internet industrial development into the primary evaluation indexes; each primary evaluation index comprises a plurality of secondary evaluation indexes;
the clean energy supply comprises 4 secondary evaluation indicators: clean energy power generation installed capacity, clean heating rate, wind abandoning rate and light abandoning rate;
the clean energy consumption and electric energy substitution comprises 4 secondary evaluation indexes: the consumption ratio of clean energy, the delivery capacity of clean energy, the holding capacity ratio of the electric automobile and the energy storage capacity;
the social and economic benefits of the energy Internet comprise 3 secondary evaluation indexes: the power failure duration, the reduction of carbon dioxide emission and the energy investment yield are prolonged;
the energy Internet industry development comprises 3 secondary evaluation indexes: the rationalization degree of an industrial structure, the registration quantity of energy enterprises and the popularization rate of intelligent energy equipment;
the total number of the secondary evaluation indexes is 14, namely the total number of the evaluation indexes of the invention is 14.
3. The method for evaluating the energy internet development index based on the fuzzy hierarchy analysis as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step 1 is:
on the basis of constructing an energy Internet development index evaluation index set, acquiring index data of an evaluation area, grading each index data by adopting a percentage value, and recording an energy Internet development mode to be evaluated as Eo(O ═ 1,2, …, O), where the p-th evaluation index is Cp(P ═ 1,2, …, P) where O is the energy internet growth pattern in generalNumber, P is the total number of evaluation indexes, xopThe value of the p-th evaluation index representing the o-th energy internet development mode is obtained; sopTo the index value xopScore of, sop∈[0,100]。
4. The method for evaluating the energy internet development index based on the fuzzy hierarchy analysis as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step 2 is:
(1) the uncertain comparison judgment is expressed as a triangular fuzzy number:
and expressing the uncertain comparison judgment as a triangular fuzzy number by adopting a fuzzy set theory to represent the relative importance of the fuzzy, wherein on a given domain U, for any x ∈ U, one triangular fuzzy set has a triangular fuzzy membershipCorrespondingly, the expression is as follows:
where l, m, u represent the minimum possible value, the most likely value and the maximum possible value, respectively, describing the ambiguity event,represents the fuzzy number, and is marked as (l, m, u);
(2) establishing a fuzzy hierarchical analysis model:
a. constructing a decision hierarchy: similar to the traditional analytic hierarchy process, firstly, a decision problem is decomposed into hierarchical structures, namely a first-level evaluation index layer and a second-level evaluation index layer in step 1;
b. generating a pair-wise fuzzy comparison matrix: for a priority problem with n elements, wherein a first-level index n is 4; two-level index n being 3 or 4, wherein the pair-wise comparison is judged by fuzzy trigonometric numberAnd expressing that a regular fuzzy reciprocal comparison matrix is constructed on the basis of the method:
c. consistency check and priority derivation: this step checks for consistency and derives a priority based on the pairwise comparison matrix ifThen the regular fuzzy comparison matrixAre identical, wherein i, j, k is 1,2, …, n,representing fuzzy multiplication, with ≈ representing fuzzy equal to; once paired comparison matrixBy consistency check, i.e. using conventional hierarchical analysis methods to calculate fuzzy prioritiesThen, a local priority weight vector (w) is obtained using the pairwise comparison matrix1,w2,…,wn)T
d. Global priority aggregation, i.e. determination of the final weight value: the local priority weights obtained at different levels of the decision level are summarized into a comprehensive global priority by adopting a weighting sum method, namely a final weight value (W)1,W2,…,Wp,…,WP)T
(3) Establishing a fuzzy optimization model:
the elements of the decision matrix are determined by fuzzy trigonometric numbersThe pair-wise comparison ratios expressed, wherein i, j ═ 1, 2.., n; further, assume that l is when i ≠ jij<mij<uijIf i equals j, thenThus, the comparison matrix is paired by a regular fuzzy numberDerived weight value vector (w)1,w2,…,wn)TThe fuzzy inequality must be satisfied:
in the formula, wi>0,wj>0,i≠j,Representing a blur less than or equal to;
to measure the satisfaction of different ratios with the above-mentioned bilateral inequality, a new membership function is defined as:
in the formula, i is not equal to j,may be greater than 1 and in the interval (0, m)ij]Upper linear decrease in the interval [ mijInfinity) linear increase;smaller is said to be wi/wjThe more acceptable the value;
to determine a weight value vector (w)1,w2,…,wn)TAll of wi/wjShould be precisely proportionedSatisfies n (n-1)/2 fuzzy comparison judgments, i.e. wi/wjIt should satisfy:wherein,thus, μij(wi/wj) Can be used to solve the weight value vector (w)1,w2,…,wn)TAs shown in the following formula:
the above formula needs to satisfy:
where i ≠ j, δ is the Heaviside function:
5. the method for evaluating the energy internet development index based on the fuzzy hierarchy analysis as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step 3 is:
the minimization model in the step 2 is a constraint nonlinear optimization model, let χi=μij(wi/wj) I, J equals 1,2, …, n, then min J (w)1,w2,...,wn) The optimization model is as follows
Therefore, a particle swarm optimization algorithm can be applied to solve the weight value vector (w)1,w2,…,wn)TFirst, mix min J (w)1,w2,...,wn) The optimization problem is characterized in that:
further, the following steps are adopted for solving:
a) setting a control parameter and the iteration number t as 1;
b) initializing the position χ of the particle iiAnd velocity vi
c) Updating the position p of each particlei
d) Evaluating a fitness function f (χ) for each particle12,...,χn);
e) Updating the individual optimal position p of each particleid(t) and population optimum position pgd(t);
f) If f (χ)12,...,χn)<pgd(t), then output the best position (global solution);
g) otherwise, updating the iteration number, and repeating the steps c-f, wherein t is t + 1.
6. The method for evaluating the energy internet development index based on the fuzzy hierarchy analysis as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step 4 is:
by the weight (W) of each index1,W2,…,Wp,…,WP)TAnd the index value score sopObtaining the weighted score of the index:
qop=Wjsop(o=1,2,…,O;p=1,2,…,P)
finally, index evaluation values of the energy Internet development modes are obtained:
CN201811587019.5A 2018-12-25 2018-12-25 An evaluation method of energy internet development index based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process Pending CN109615262A (en)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN111367163A (en) * 2020-03-11 2020-07-03 广东广垦畜牧工程研究院有限公司 Intelligent controller for farm environment and application thereof
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Application publication date: 20190412