CN109599861B

CN109599861B - Power supply structure planning method of power supply of transmission-end power grid considering local load peak regulation capacity

Info

Publication number: CN109599861B
Application number: CN201811459354.7A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 路亮; 魏明奎; 周全; 江栗; 柳璐; 蔡绍荣; 程浩忠; 张程铭; 袁杨
Original assignee: Shanghai Jiaotong University; State Grid Corp of China SGCC; Southwest Branch of State Grid Corp
Current assignee: Shanghai Jiaotong University; State Grid Corp of China SGCC; Southwest Branch of State Grid Corp
Priority date: 2018-11-30
Filing date: 2018-11-30
Publication date: 2022-09-16
Anticipated expiration: 2038-11-30
Also published as: CN109599861A

Abstract

The invention relates to a power supply structure planning method of a sending end power grid considering local load peak regulation capacity, which is characterized in that a power supply structure planning model is established under various practical constraint conditions such as peak regulation constraint and the like on the basis of considering wind-light storage peak regulation capacity and local load peak regulation capacity, and comprises the following steps: establishing a power supply structure planning model considering local load peak regulation capacity; obtaining a unit maintenance plan, and carrying out random production simulation of wind, solar energy, water, fire and pumped storage power generation by considering the output of a wind power plant and a solar power station which are additionally provided with energy storage and the local load peak regulation capacity; and solving the power supply structure planning model by adopting a hybrid particle swarm algorithm to obtain an optimal power supply structure planning scheme. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that the user and the electric automobile are considered to actively participate in the peak regulation of the power system as the local load, the peak-valley difference of the system can be effectively reduced, the peak regulation difficulty of the power system is relieved, and the like.

Description

Power supply structure planning method of power supply of transmission-end power grid considering local load peak regulation capacity

Technical Field

The invention relates to the technical field of power supply structure planning of power systems, in particular to a method for planning a power supply structure of a power transmission end power grid by considering local load peak regulation capacity.

Background

The power supply planning refers to investigation and implementation of plant sites and plant construction conditions of each power plant on the premise of ensuring specified power supply reliability indexes according to power load requirements and load characteristics predicted in a planning period, and simulation calculation, reliability analysis and technical economic analysis are carried out on various possible planning schemes by fully considering the operating characteristics of each power plant, the coordination with a system, fuel sources, transportation conditions and other factors, so that the most reasonable power supply structure and the optimal power supply planning scheme are finally determined. Wherein, the determination of the reasonable power supply structure is the content of the optimization of the power supply structure. The power supply structure referred to herein is a proportion of installed capacity (generated energy) of various power generation energy sources in a country or region to total installed capacity (total generated energy), and power supply structure optimization can be summarized as finding a most economical power supply structure under the condition of satisfying a certain reliability level according to the result of electric quantity and load prediction in a certain period in a certain region, so as to satisfy the requirements of users on electric energy and the requirements of stable and economical operation of the whole power generation system.

The domestic research on the power supply structure planning mainly has the following results in the aspect of literature research. In the power supply investment dynamic decision model research based on the Real Option theory in the power market, which is published in Chinese Motor engineering journal (2010 (16):74-79) by Jiejiang, Yang and the like, the Real Option Approach (ROA) is applied to power supply planning, and various power supply planning models based on the Option theory are derived. The power supply structure optimization problem of the large-scale wind power of the Jiangsu power grid is solved by a power supply planning design of the large-scale wind power of the Jiangsu power grid published on an electric power system automation (2011, (22):60-65) of Zuge, Wanghaineen and the like, a probability method is applied, on the basis of analyzing reasonable power for later use, reasonable parameter setting of wind power peak shaving capacity requirements in power supply structure optimization is discussed, and the optimal capacity ratio of the wind power and other power supplies is obtained through multi-scheme comparison. The low-carbon economic power supply planning under a renewable energy excitation system published by the electric network technology (2015, (03):655 and 662) of Zhang Xiaohui, Yanpenda and the like aims to reduce carbon emission, adds a carbon emission intensity constraint target in power supply structure optimization on the basis of introducing renewable resources (wind energy and solar energy), and promotes renewable energy construction and optimizes the power supply structure by increasing the proportion of units with high energy efficiency and low emission. A power supply planning model which meets the power market environment constraint and comprises thermal power, hydropower, large-scale wind power and other types of unit synchronization is constructed in power supply planning research under a power market environment published in power system protection and control (2011,39(5):22-26) of Yuan Jian, Yuan Tie Jiang and the like, and the power supply planning model is solved by applying an improved genetic algorithm. Zhangjiu, Miao, 2815634 and the like establish a net income maximization double-layer power supply planning model considering peak regulation, frequency modulation and environmental protection constraints in the double-layer power supply planning with wind power plants published in the power grid technology (2011,35(11):43-49), and provide a solving method combining a simulated plant growth algorithm, a minimum cumulative risk degree method and an equivalent electric quantity frequency method. In the aspect of particle swarm optimization, a multi-target reactive power optimization vector evaluation adaptive particle swarm algorithm published in Chinese Motor engineering journal (2008,28(31):22-28) by Liujia, Lidan, Gao Li Ji and the like provides a self-adaptive particle swarm algorithm and applies the self-adaptive particle swarm algorithm to multi-target reactive power optimization in order to solve the problem that the high-dimensional complex problem of the particle swarm optimization falls into local optimization. In the power system protection and control (2013,41(17):25-31), the power system optimization scheduling containing the wind power plant based on the improved multi-target particle swarm algorithm, published by Lujinling, Miao rain and Yang and the like, the capability of searching unit combination by the multi-target particle swarm algorithm is improved by introducing genetic operators, the global optimization capability of the algorithm is improved, and the algorithm is applied to the scheduling of the power system containing the wind power plant. A research method for optimizing the scale of an extra-high voltage direct current wind power and thermal power combined delivery matched power supply and a research principle and thought of the matched power supply are provided by an extra-high voltage direct current wind power and thermal power combined delivery power supply planning optimization method published by Wangzhibong in electric power construction (2015,36(10):60-66), and an optimization method for the scale of the extra-high voltage direct current wind power and thermal power combined delivery matched power supply is established at the same time, but the method does not consider actual random production simulation in the system, so that the actual operation condition is not considered sufficiently. Most of the above documents are directed to a corresponding power supply planning method after renewable energy sources (wind power, photovoltaic and the like) are accessed, and the purpose is to consider the influence of the output uncertainty of the renewable energy sources on a power supply planning scheme, but most of the methods do not involve actual production simulation and unit maintenance when the planning scheme is evaluated, and meanwhile, the methods are not considered enough for a system accessed by a large-scale hydroelectric generating set. In the existing patent, the invention patent ' receiving end power supply planning method considering ultra-high voltage direct current access ' applied by the inventor such as Lin and Liu Yongmin ' analyzes the main factors of the ultra-high voltage direct current transmission system influencing the construction and planning of the power supply in the province, combines the traditional power supply planning method, and establishes a receiving end power supply planning model considering the ultra-high voltage access in a relevant way by taking the optimal overall social benefit as a target. The patent of 'a unit maintenance plan optimization system considering large-scale ultrahigh-voltage power supply regulation capacity' applied by the inventor of the Kirgihu and the like creates a unit maintenance plan optimization system considering large-scale ultrahigh-voltage power supply regulation capacity, and an input optimal maintenance plan arrangement and week risk degree average evaluation index under a specific power system can be obtained through a database module, an input module, a maintenance plan optimization module and an output module. The invention patent of power supply planning method based on renewable energy policy control constraint, which is applied by the inventors of Linlin, Huangjing Hui and the like, combines renewable energy policy control constraint conditions and power supply planning constraint conditions, and establishes a power supply planning model aiming at a receiving end power grid, so that the net income of the system in a planning period is maximum, and the planning method is more suitable for the actual operation condition of a direct current receiving end regional power grid. For distributed power planning, there are currently many inventions. The invention patent 'a distributed power supply planning method and system' applied by the inventor of Shipu, Ren Hui, Sun ChengJun and the like provides a distributed power supply planning method and system, the optimal access position and the optimal access capacity of a distributed power supply are respectively determined through 4 steps, the voltage stability of a power distribution network is improved, and the network loss of the system is reduced, but the method mainly determines a planning scheme through calculating a voltage stability index VSI, and does not consider the economy, the safety and the environmental protection of the scheme. The invention patent of distributed power supply planning method based on time sequence characteristics and environmental benefits, applied by the inventor of Lihong, Zhaoyang, Zhang gesture and the like, solves the technical problems of high cost, low efficiency and poor resource utilization rate of the existing distributed power supply planning technology, but the planning method focuses on processing load data, only considers net income and net investment brought by the distributed power supply, and does not fully consume renewable energy. The invention patent of Lujinling and Zhao Daqian inventor application, namely an active power distribution network distributed power supply planning method considering energy storage and reactive compensation, establishes a multi-objective optimization planning model integrating system voltage deviation, line active network loss, average power supply reliability and greenhouse gas emission under the constraints of conditions such as power balance, node voltage, node distributed power supply capacity, energy storage equipment output power and the like. The invention patent 'distributed hybrid power generation system power supply planning method' applied by inventors of criminal jade, cinnabar, and eternal flood in summer proposes a distributed hybrid power generation system power supply planning method, which comprises the following steps: performing early-stage planning, determining the number of the wind turbine generator, the photovoltaic array, the small hydropower station and the energy storage battery, and generating a plurality of sets of selectable planning schemes according to a permutation and combination method; respectively establishing output power models of a wind turbine generator, a photovoltaic array, a small hydropower station and an energy storage battery; calculating the system load power shortage rate and the system energy surplus rate of each set of selectable planning scheme, respectively judging whether each set of selectable planning scheme meets the system reliability requirement, if so, executing the subsequent steps, and if not, discarding; and for a plurality of sets of selectable planning schemes meeting the system reliability requirements, calculating corresponding expense registering values according to the system load power shortage rate and the system energy surplus rate, arranging the expense registering values in an ascending order, and selecting the expense registering value with a small expense as a recommended planning scheme. The method takes energy utilization rate and system reliability into account, but does not take hydropower regulation performance and price dynamic change at each moment into account, so that the final total cost is not accurate. The invention patent of 'an active power distribution network distributed power supply planning method considering source-load matching degree' applied by the inventor of royal seal, Liu Baolin, Von Lei and the like provides an active power distribution network distributed power supply planning method considering source-load matching degree, the method considers economic cost and operation indexes to establish a double-layer planning model, and the upper-layer planning aims at the minimum annual comprehensive cost in a planning year to determine the access position and capacity of a distributed power supply; and introducing a source load matching degree index by lower-layer planning, simulating the operation process of a planning scheme by taking the optimal source load matching degree as a target, and optimizing the time sequence output of the distributed power supply. The method mainly analyzes the problem of source-load matching degree, but random output of renewable energy sources and random fluctuation of loads are not considered, and a final result is influenced to a certain extent. Meanwhile, the method mainly aims at the planning of the power supply of a receiving end power grid accessed by an extra-high voltage, the planning of the power supply of a transmitting end power grid with large-scale hydropower is not considered, and the problem of energy abandon generated after random production simulation is not considered in each model, so that a large amount of waste of electricity generation can be caused.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to overcome the defects in the prior art and provide a method for planning a power supply structure of a sending-end power grid by considering the local load peak regulation capacity.

The purpose of the invention can be realized by the following technical scheme:

a method for planning a power supply structure of a sending-end power grid in consideration of local load peak regulation capacity comprises the following steps:

1) acquiring unit data, load related data and price information data;

2) establishing a power supply structure planning model considering local load peak regulation capacity;

3) based on the data obtained in the step 1), obtaining a unit maintenance plan, and considering the output and local load peak regulation capacity of the wind power station and the solar power station which are additionally provided with energy storage to carry out random production simulation of wind, solar energy, water, fire and pumped storage power generation;

4) and 3) solving the power supply structure planning model by adopting a hybrid particle swarm algorithm based on the step 3) to obtain an optimal power supply structure planning scheme.

Further, in the step 3), a unit maintenance plan is obtained through a minimum cumulative risk method.

Further, in the random production simulation, the production simulation of the extra-high voltage and hydroelectric generating sets and the new energy generating sets in multiple regions is considered based on an equivalent electric quantity frequency method.

Further, the power supply structure planning model is a double-layer optimization model, wherein the upper layer model is a power supply investment decision problem, the planning target is the minimization of power generation cost, and the decision variable is whether a unit to be selected is put into operation or not; the lower model is a production optimization decision problem, and the planning aim is to minimize the operation cost, the overhaul time interval of the generator sets and the operation positions of the generator sets on the load curve.

Further, in the two-layer optimization model, an objective function of an upper layer model is represented as:

wherein B is the total investment of the planning schemePresent value of capital cost, B _ft 、B _ht 、B _wt 、B _vt Respectively representing the investment costs of a thermal power plant, a hydraulic power plant, a wind power plant and a solar power station to be selected in the T year, wherein T is a planning period;

the constraint conditions of the upper layer model comprise decision variable integer constraint, total installed number constraint, power plant earliest construction life constraint, electric power balance condition, electric quantity balance condition and peak regulation capacity constraint;

the peak regulation capacity constraint considers the participation of a wind power plant and a solar power station in peak regulation and the peak regulation capacity of local loads, wherein the local loads comprise electric automobiles, electric automobile charging and replacing stations and user side energy storage.

Further, the peak shaver capability constraint is expressed as:

in the formula, alpha _i 、α _j Respectively the peak shaving depth alpha of newly built thermal power plants and hydraulic power plants _l 、α _m Peak shaving depth, P, of the established thermal power plant and hydraulic power plant respectively _i 、P _j Respectively for newly-built thermal power generating unit and hydroelectric generating unit to output power P _l 、P _m Respectively the output of the built thermal power generating unit and the hydroelectric generating unit, N _f And N _h Respectively for newly-built thermal power generating units and hydroelectric generating units, N _0,f And N _0,h The number of the established thermal power generating units and hydroelectric generating units, N _WG Number of newly built wind farms, N _0,WG For the number of established wind farms, η _WG As a confidence coefficient of the wind power generation,

the installed capacity of the r-th wind farm,

installed capacity of the u wind farm, N _0,SG Number of built solar farms, N _SG To newly build the number, eta, of solar farms _SG As a confidence coefficient of the solar power generation,

the installed capacity of the s-th solar farm,

installed capacity of the v-th solar farm, W _x The energy storage capacity configured for the xth wind power plant comprises an established wind power plant and a newly-built wind power plant, W _y The energy storage capacity configured for the y-th solar power station comprises an established solar power station and a newly-built solar power station; n is a radical of _cha 、N _cha 、N _user Respectively showing the quantity of the electric automobile charging and replacing station, the electric automobile and the energy storage configuration at the user side, P _z,cha 、P _a,car 、P _b,user Respectively representing the discharge power of the z, a and b electric automobile charging and replacing power stations, electric automobiles and user side energy storage; alpha represents the peak-valley electricity price difference, f (alpha) represents the willingness coefficient that the user of the electric automobile wants to transmit electricity back to the power grid in the peak time period when the peak-valley electricity price difference is alpha, and g (alpha) represents the willingness coefficient that the user-side energy storage is willing to transmit electricity back to the power grid in the peak time period when the peak-valley electricity price difference is alpha;

the maximum peak-to-valley difference of the system load.

Further, the system load maximum peak-valley difference includes a reduction amount of the system peak-valley difference caused by charging of the electric vehicle charging station, the electric vehicle and the user side energy storage in the valley period.

Further, in the two-layer optimization model, the objective function of the lower layer model is represented as:

where b is the total operating cost of the planning scheme and b _ft 、b _ht 、b _wt 、b _vt 、b _0t Respectively representing thermal power plants, hydraulic power plants and wind power plants to be selected in the t yearOperating costs of a field, a solar power station and an existing power plant including an extra-high voltage, wherein T is a planning period;

the constraint conditions of the lower layer model comprise unit maintenance constraint, system reliability constraint and pollutant emission constraint.

Further, when the power supply structure planning model is solved by adopting the hybrid particle swarm optimization, each particle corresponds to one power supply structure planning scheme, unit maintenance plan and random production simulation are respectively carried out on each power supply structure planning scheme, the obtained comprehensive operation cost is fed back to the upper layer model, and global optimization is carried out through an optimization mechanism of the particle swarm optimization.

Further, the specific process of solving the power structure planning model by adopting the hybrid particle swarm algorithm includes:

step 1: setting a population size N, a particle variable dimension D and an iteration number M;

step 2: initializing a population space and a belief space;

step 3: calculating the fitness value of each particle in the population space, storing the initialized particle position and the fitness value as individual optimal values, and comparing all the individual optimal values as global optimal values;

step 4: calculating inertia weight w, updating w according to a threshold value adjusting strategy, and adjusting a learning factor;

step 5: the belief space carries out influence operation on the population space based on the rating function, Gaussian disturbance factors are calculated, and equivalent N sub-generation individuals are generated by variation on parent individuals of the population space according to rating categories;

step 6: carrying out border crossing processing on the positions of the sub-generation individuals by utilizing a border position processing strategy;

step 7: natural selection is carried out in the population space, and elite individuals stored in the situational knowledge are used for replacing poorer individuals in the population space, so that the individual optimum and the global optimum of the population space are updated;

step 8: the population space contributes the elite individuals in the space to the belief space by receiving operation, the elite individuals are updated by utilizing a particle swarm algorithm to generate offspring individuals, finally, the situation knowledge is updated by utilizing a roulette rule, and the individual optimality and the global optimality of the belief space are updated;

step 9: evaluating the global optimum of the population space and the belief space, and using the better of the population space and the belief space as the global optimum value of the iteration;

step 10: calculating the variance sigma of population fitness ² If σ is ² If not more than epsilon, performing Logistic chaotic variation on the global optimal value of the population, wherein epsilon is a self-adaptive variation threshold;

step 11: if the termination requirement is met, the algorithm is exited, otherwise, the process returns to Step 4.

Aiming at a power grid at a sending end with a large-scale hydroelectric generating set, the invention adds energy abandonment punishment by utilizing a multi-region random production simulation and maintenance plan arrangement technology of the output of a plurality of hydroelectric generating sets on the basis of considering extra-high voltage access and peak regulation requirements and on the basis of time-space analysis of the regulation performance of the hydroelectric generating sets, so that a planning scheme is close to the reality of the power grid at the sending end and has better adaptability.

Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:

according to the invention, local loads such as the electric automobile, the electric automobile charging station, the user side energy storage and the like are considered to participate in peak shaving, and under the influence of the price policy, the user and the electric automobile are considered to actively participate in the peak shaving of the power system as the local loads, so that the peak-valley difference of the system can be effectively reduced, the peak shaving difficulty of the power system is relieved, the method is beneficial to the power system and the user, and is closer to the actual condition of the future power system operation.

Secondly, the practicability is strong. According to the method, the time-space analysis of the adjustment performance of the hydroelectric generating set is firstly carried out before power supply planning, the peak regulation capacity of each set is analyzed on the basis of statistics of the adjustment performance of each set, the influence strategy analysis is carried out on the price of the pumped storage set, a pumped storage price model is established, and the influence of price fluctuation on a power supply planning scheme can be fully considered. Modeling consideration of extra-high voltage sending-out, cooperation of multiple hydroelectric generating sets and positions of new energy generating sets in random production simulation is added in random production simulation and popularized to multiple regions.

And thirdly, the environmental protection is good. According to the invention, the carbon emission constraint condition is added into the constraint condition, and meanwhile, in order to fully consume hydroelectric power and other renewable energy electric energy under the background of large-scale hydroelectric power generation, the water abandoning cost, the wind abandoning cost and the light abandoning cost generated after random production simulation are considered in the objective function of a power planning operation layer, so that the phenomena of water abandoning, wind abandoning and light abandoning in large quantity can be well solved, and the low-carbon environmental protection is better realized.

Fourthly, the efficiency is high. The power supply planning problem essentially belongs to a large-scale and nonlinear mixed integer planning problem, the direct solution is time-consuming, the power supply planning problem is converted into a double-layer planning model according to a decomposition coordination idea, the upper-layer planning is a power supply investment decision problem, the planning target is the minimization of power generation cost, and a decision variable is whether a unit to be selected is put into operation or not; the lower-layer planning is a production optimization decision problem, the planning target is the minimization of the operation cost, the planning target can be divided into two sub-problems of a unit maintenance plan and a random production simulation, decision variables of the two sub-problems are respectively the maintenance time interval of the generator set and the operation position of each generator set on a load curve, the generated energy, the fuel consumption and the environmental protection cost of each generator set can be obtained through the production optimization decision, and therefore the operation cost of the planning scheme is calculated. This not only reduces the dimensionality of the sub-problems, but the models of the sub-problems become easier to handle. Meanwhile, on the basis of the traditional particle swarm optimization, the CGPSO algorithm is provided based on a culture frame, chaotic mapping, Gaussian disturbance and a natural selection mechanism, each planning year is taken as an integer decision variable to carry out simplified coding by combining with the practical problem of power supply planning, and a global optimal planning scheme can be quickly found by utilizing an optimization mechanism in the CGPSO algorithm, so that the solving efficiency is greatly improved.

And fifthly, after the wind power field and the solar power station (including a photovoltaic power station, a photo-thermal power station and the like) are considered to be additionally provided with energy storage, the wind power field and the solar power station participate in peak regulation of the power system, on one hand, the confidence capacities of the wind power field and the solar power station are considered to participate in the peak regulation of the system, and meanwhile, the energy abandonment caused by the peak regulation is allowed to be generated in a certain range, and on the other hand, the wind power field and the solar power station are considered to be additionally provided with the energy storage, so that the capability of participating in the peak regulation of the system can be effectively improved.

According to the method, the model is decomposed into the double-layer planning model according to the decomposition coordination idea, and meanwhile, the maintenance plan and the multi-region random production simulation are embedded in the operation layer by combining the equal risk degree method, the equivalent electric quantity frequency method and the CGPSO algorithm, and the double-layer power supply planning model is solved to obtain the optimal planning scheme, so that the accuracy is high.

Drawings

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of the present invention;

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a single hydroelectric generating set with peak load;

FIG. 3 is a schematic illustration of a determination of an individual hydroelectric generating set load position;

FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of planning installed capacities of various types of units in 2020 in the embodiment;

fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of the generated energy of various types of units in 2020 in the embodiment.

Detailed Description

The invention is described in detail below with reference to the figures and specific embodiments. The present embodiment is implemented on the premise of the technical solution of the present invention, and a detailed implementation manner and a specific operation process are given, but the scope of the present invention is not limited to the following embodiments.

As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a method for planning a power supply structure of a transmission-end power grid in consideration of a local load peak shaving capability, which includes the following steps:

and step S101, acquiring input data and providing necessary data support for power supply planning. The input data comprises unit data, load related data and price information data, and provides necessary data support for power supply planning. The related data of the unit mainly refers to the type of the unit, the capacity of the unit, the number of installed units, the coal consumption coefficient of a thermal power unit, the annual utilization hours, the overhaul period, the forced outage rate, the minimum technical output, the economic life, the peak regulation rate, the maintenance cost proportion, the investment cost of each unit capacity and the like, the related load data refers to the annual maximum load, the annual power consumption, the maximum peak-valley difference of a system, the maximum change rate of the system load and the like, and the price information mainly refers to the price of the power on the internet and the coal price.

And S102, establishing a power supply structure planning model considering new energy participating in peak shaving, and initializing a population space, wherein the power supply structure planning model comprises the settings of the number of power supply planning schemes, the number of power supplies to be selected for the schemes and the elimination rate of the schemes.

Step S103, initializing a belief space, setting constraint conditions to form a feasible domain (standard knowledge), storing a better planning scheme (situational knowledge), dividing a planning region and evaluating a subspace (situational knowledge).

And step S104, optimizing the population space, and updating the optimal planning scheme of the population space and the optimal planning scheme of the global situation.

The optimization process of the population space comprises the following steps: forming a unit maintenance arrangement plan through unit maintenance, and substituting the unit maintenance arrangement plan into random production simulation; performing time-space analysis on the adjustment performance of the hydroelectric generating sets, dividing each hydroelectric generating set into daily adjustment, seasonal adjustment, incomplete year adjustment and annual adjustment sets according to the adjustment capacity of the hydroelectric generating sets, and counting the peak adjustment capacity of each type of set; carrying out influence strategy analysis on the price of the pumping unit, and establishing a pumping price model; configuring power generation capacity and peak regulation capacity of an energy storage wind power plant and a solar power station, and allowing spatial analysis of energy abandonment; carrying out random production simulation on wind, light, water, fire and a pumping and storing unit, and forming a comprehensive evaluation objective function comprising power supply investment cost, fuel cost, carbon emission cost and energy abandonment cost; updating inertia weight according to a cosine decreasing function, adjusting learning factors, grading a planning scheme by using a grading function, generating a Gaussian disturbance factor and generating a child planning scheme by variation if the grading is H, generating the Gaussian disturbance factor close to a parent planning scheme if the grading is L or NE, and generating the child planning scheme close to H by variation if the grading is L or NE; carrying out random processing by utilizing a boundary random processing strategy; and (4) natural selection operation: the excellent planning scheme replaces the poor planning scheme.

And S105, optimizing the belief space, and updating the belief space optimal planning scheme and the global optimal planning scheme.

The optimization process of the belief space comprises the following steps: executing the receiving operation, and eliminating the inferior programming scheme; performing variation on the particle swarm algorithm to generate a new power supply planning scheme; and updating the situation knowledge by using the roulette to select a good power planning scheme.

Step S106, evaluating the global optima of the population space and the belief space, and using the better of the population space and the belief space as the global optimum value of the iteration; calculating the variance sigma of population fitness ² If σ is ² If the global optimal value of the population is less than or equal to epsilon, performing Logistic chaotic variation on the global optimal value of the population, wherein epsilon is a self-adaptive variation threshold value.

And S107, judging the difference value before and after the objective function, outputting an optimal planning scheme if the difference value is smaller than a threshold, otherwise, re-entering the population space for operation, and returning to the step S104 to re-enter the population space for operation.

(1) Maintenance planning arrangement for a unit

The invention discloses a unit maintenance plan model based on an equal risk principle. The minimum accumulated risk degree method is used for searching a time interval with the minimum accumulated risk degree in the overhaul time interval of the unit to be overhauled in the overhaul period to serve as the overhaul time interval of the unit.

When a unit maintenance plan is made, because maintenance of a unit may last for a plurality of time intervals, the equal risk degree method usually finds the time interval with the minimum equivalent load first, and then continuously schedules the maintenance period of the unit to be maintained around the time interval. In the case of a large load variation, the equal risk method may "fill in the valley" and "increase the peak" at the same time. The defect of the equal risk method can be overcome by selecting the time period with the minimum accumulated risk in the maintenance duration as the maintenance position of the unit. Assuming that the maintenance duration of the ith unit is d _i In the week, the time period for scheduling unit maintenance in one year is 52-d _i + 1. The weekly risk LOLP can be calculated using a semi-invariant method _i From this it is easy to calculate each period to be overhauled (duration d) _i Week), thenThe time interval with the smallest cumulative risk degree should be selected as the overhaul position of the ith unit. And deducting the semi-invariant of the shutdown capacity of the ith unit from the semi-invariant of the equivalent continuous load curve of the system, so as to calculate the risk degree of each week after the maintenance of the maintenance unit is arranged. The same method can be adopted to sequentially determine the maintenance time of other units until all units are arranged.

(2) Stochastic production simulation

The method comprises the steps of taking into account that after a wind power plant and a solar power station (including a photovoltaic power station, a photo-thermal power station and the like) are additionally provided with energy storage, participating in peak regulation of a power system, simultaneously taking into account local load peak regulation capacity, adding modeling consideration of an extra-high voltage, a hydroelectric generating set and a new energy source set on the basis of a traditional equivalent electric quantity frequency method, and popularizing the multi-region. The random production simulation modeling for single hydroelectric generating set and multiple hydroelectric generating sets is as follows:

1) case of a single hydroelectric generating set

When a hydroelectric generating set is arranged in the system, peak load is borne by the hydroelectric generating set as far as possible, so that the effect of reducing coal consumption is achieved. The peak load of the hydro-electric machine is shown in fig. 2. In the figure, a curve cg is translated leftwards from an original load curve and is equivalent to the capacity C of a hydroelectric generating set _H And then the process is finished. The area of the shaded area is equal to a given quantity E of the hydroelectric generating set _A . The load that the remaining units should assume in this case is the part enclosed by oacgfh. At a distance of point C _H When the point b of (hydroelectric power generating unit capacity) is taken as the perpendicular line be, the area of the graph acg is equal to the area of the graph bde. That is, the load carried by the remaining units can be considered to be composed of two parts, Oafh and bde. This corresponds to the hydro-power generating units being loaded by the abef part of the diagram.

The processing principle in the production simulation of a single hydroelectric power unit is therefore summarized as:

searching for capacity C equivalent to hydroelectric generating set under equivalent load curve _H A section of (a) between which the area is exactly equal to the given electric quantity E of the hydroelectric generating set _A . Namely, the hydroelectric generating set should meet the following conditions in the production simulation:

in the formula P _HL Maximum load power for hydroelectric power units, C _H To the capacity of a hydroelectric generating set, E _L For loading of electricity, E _A And giving the electric quantity for the hydroelectric generating set.

FIG. 3 illustrates a process for determining an operational position of a hydroelectric generating set during a production simulation. Firstly, a characteristic rectangle abb 'a' of the hydroelectric generating set is made under an equivalent load curve, and the bottom of the characteristic rectangle is C _H The number of utilization hours T of the hydroelectric generating set in the simulation period _H . When the rectangle is moved rightwards, the area of the load curve in the corresponding interval is equal to the area of the rectangle, and the running position of the hydroelectric generating set is found.

The process of moving the characteristic rectangle of the hydroelectric generating set to the left is actually the process of sequentially arranging the running of the hydroelectric generating set, and each arranged characteristic rectangle of the hydroelectric generating set moves to the right by a distance corresponding to the capacity of the thermal generating set. Since this movement is discontinuous.

2) Multiple hydro-power units.

Let N in the system _H A platform hydroelectric generating set. The characteristic rectangles of the hydroelectric generating sets are arranged from left to right according to the height (utilization hours) of the characteristic rectangles to form a characteristic rectangle sequence diagram of the hydroelectric generating sets. When the sequence diagram is moved from left to right, the following condition is satisfied in a certain section of the equivalent continuous load curve:

the first n hydroelectric generating sets can be combined into an equivalent hydroelectric generating set and carry loads at corresponding positions. Remaining N _H The rectangular sequence diagrams of n hydroelectric generating sets should continue to move to the right and be combined into another equivalent hydroelectric generating set in the interval of the boundary condition, with the load in the interval.

The modeling method for multi-zone stochastic production simulation is as follows:

in the production simulation of interconnected systems, not only is a unit loaded in the system, but the residual capacity of the unit is also loaded in another system. Let the exact probability of a unit i in state k (capacity k x Δ x) be p _i (k) In that respect The unit has a load not less than (J) _i-1 The probability of + m). Δ x is F ^(i-1) (J _i-1 + m). The conditional probability that the residual capacity is larger than or equal to l.DELTA.x ═ k + 1-m.DELTA.x is

1-F ^(i-1) (J _i-1 +m)＝1-F ^(i-1) (J _i-1 +k+1-l)

Defining:

according to the total probability formula, the probability that the residual capacity of the unit i is more than or equal to l.DELTA.x can be known

Comprises the following steps:

by

Easily obtain the probability that the residual capacity is equal to l.DELTA.x

The transmission capacity of the tie is a random variable whose probability distribution is constantly changing during the production simulation, subject to the support of the two systems' power. By using

And

the probability distribution of the forward and reverse conveying capacity of the connecting line in the random production simulation process is shown as follows:

in the formula X _AB Indicating the transport capacity of the link from system A to system B, X _AB Representing the delivery capacity from system B to system a. The forward direction of the capacity of the link is specified from system a to system B.

If the connecting line is a single-circuit transmission line, the rated transmission capacity is C _t The forced outage rate is q _t If there is no power support on the line, the initial transmission capacity distribution is:

when the tie line is composed of multiple transmission lines, the initial distribution can be directly obtained by a parallel connection formula.

3) Spatio-temporal analysis of hydroelectric regulation performance

The regulation capacity of the hydroelectric generating set is divided according to the respective characteristics of the hydroelectric generating set, mainly the peak regulation capacity of the hydroelectric generating set. The storage capacity adjustment factor defines: the ratio of the interest-making storage capacity (the regulated storage capacity) of the reservoir to the average amount of water coming from the reservoir for many years. Generally denoted by beta. The regulating capacity of the hydropower station is determined according to the reservoir capacity regulating coefficient. The storage capacity regulating coefficient (beta) is equal to the regulated storage capacity of the power station of the current level divided by the annual average flow of the reservoir of the current level for many years; the regulated reservoir capacity is the reservoir capacity between the normal water storage level and the dead water level; the storage capacity regulating coefficient is the actual storage capacity regulating coefficient of the current-level reservoir power station and does not contain the regulating capacity of the upstream power station to the current-level power station. The following are regulatory capacity divisions: 1) β ═ 2% or less — no modulation; 2) regulating in 2% -8% — season; 3) 8% -30% -annual regulation (8% -20% incomplete annual regulation, 20-30% complete annual regulation); 4) more than 30% is adjusted for years. The annual water consumption of the irrigation reservoir is changed, and the division value of the storage capacity coefficient beta of annual adjustment and multi-annual adjustment is higher and is about 0.50.

Now, the regulation performance of the reservoir is specifically introduced:

the hydropower station with the water regulation capacity is called a regulated reservoir hydropower station, and the hydropower station without the reservoir regulation capacity is called a radial flow type hydropower station. Hydropower stations with reservoir regulation capacity can be divided into the following parts according to the regulation performance of the reservoir: daily regulation, weekly regulation, monthly regulation, seasonal regulation, annual regulation, perennial regulation, and the like. They are divided by the reservoir capacity factor of the hydropower station.

1. Radial flow type hydroelectric power plant: a hydroelectric power plant without a reservoir and basically generating more or less electricity according to the amount of water;

2. day regulation formula hydroelectric power plant: the reservoir is very small, the regulation period of the reservoir is one day and night, and natural runoff of one day and night is regulated by the reservoir to generate electricity;

3. the reservoir capacity of three types of hydropower stations of daily regulation, weekly regulation and monthly regulation is small, and the corresponding water storage capacity and the regulation capacity adapting to the requirement of the power load are weaker, so that the hydropower stations can only meet the requirement of the power system on the power regulation by storing water at night and frequently generating water at daytime or storing water at the first ten days and frequently generating water at the last ten days according to the upstream incoming current condition;

4. the hydropower stations of the season regulation and year regulation type have relatively large reservoir capacities, which can be determined in a certain season according to the inflow conditions of rivers in the year, such as: in the flood season, the power generation is less, the water storage is more, and the stored water is left in another season (such as a dry season) for more power generation, so that the purpose of adjusting the electric quantity of the power system is achieved;

5. annual regulation type hydraulic power plant: the natural runoff of each month in one year is optimally distributed and adjusted, and the redundant water amount in the rich water period is stored in a reservoir, so that a hydropower plant for water drainage and power generation in the dry water period is ensured;

6. regulating type hydraulic power plant for many years: the uneven natural water volume for many years is optimally distributed and adjusted. The water reservoir capacity adjusted for many years is large, the generating capacity and the water storage capacity of the year can be determined according to hydrological data of the years and the hydrological data of the year, and the water storage capacity of the rich water year can be reserved to the open water year or the dry water year for generating so as to ensure the adjustable output of the power plant; the multi-year regulating hydropower station also has strong regulating capacity for natural flood, can store redundant flood in a reservoir in a flood period and generate electricity in a dry season, so that the requirement of a power system on electric quantity regulation is met, and the aims of reducing flood peaks and staggering the flood peaks can be fulfilled through reasonable reservoir dispatching in the flood period, so that the multi-year regulating hydropower station has very important effects on flood prevention work of rivers.

There is now an incomplete annual adjustment between seasonal and annual adjustments.

(3) Power supply structure planning model

The power supply structure planning model is a power supply planning model considering local load participation peak shaving, and adopts a double-layer planning model.

The upper layer model is an upper layer investment decision model, and the decision variables are whether the unit to be selected is put into operation or not.

Setting a planning period as T years; thermal power plant has N _f A plurality of; the hydroelectric power plant has N _h A plurality of; wind power plants having N _w A plurality of; photovoltaic power station has N _w And (4) respectively. X _f 、X _h 、X _w 、X _v Decision variables of a thermal power plant, a hydraulic power plant, a wind power plant and a photovoltaic power station to be selected are respectively determined; y is _ti 、Y _tj 、Y _tk 、Y _tl The number of the units of the thermal power plant i, the hydraulic power plant j, the wind power plant k and the solar power station l in the t year of the planning period is respectively. The power supply planning upper layer model established, which contains the peak shaving constraint and aims at minimizing the power supply investment cost, is as follows:

wherein B is the present value of the total investment cost of the planning scheme, B _ft 、B _ht 、B _wt 、B _vt Respectively representing the investment costs of a thermal power plant, a hydraulic power plant, a wind power plant and a solar power station to be selected in the T year, wherein T is a planning period.

The constraint conditions of the upper model comprise decision variable integer constraint, total installed number constraint, power plant earliest construction life constraint, electric power balance condition, electric quantity balance condition and peak regulation capability constraint, and specifically comprise:

1) decision variable X _f 、X _h 、X _w And X _v Is constrained by an integer

2) Total installed number of units constraint

In the formula, N _fi 、N _hj 、N _wk 、N _vl The maximum construction quantities of thermal power plants, hydraulic power plants, wind power plants and solar power stations respectively.

3) Constraint of earliest construction year of power plant

In the formula, T _i 、T _j 、T _k And T _l Respectively the earliest operating year constraints of thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, wind power plants and solar power stations.

4) Power balance condition

In the formula, P _0τ The total generated power of the existing power plant; c _τ The maximum load value required by the system in the year tau. Y is _ti 、Y _tj 、Y _tk 、Y _tl The number of the units of the thermal power plant i, the hydraulic power plant j, the wind power plant k and the solar power station l in the t year of the planning period is respectively. P _i 、P _j 、P _k 、P _l The power generation units are respectively the power generation units of a thermal power plant i, a hydraulic power plant j, a wind power plant k and a solar power station l.

5) Condition of electric quantity balance

In the formula, H _τi 、H _τj 、H _τk 、H _τl The average utilization hours of thermal power plants, hydraulic power plants, wind power plants and solar power plants in the year tau are respectively; e _0τ The maximum power generation amount which can be generated by the existing power plant in the year tau; e _t The total electric quantity value required by the system in t years.

6) Peak shaving ability constraint

In the formula, alpha _i 、α _j Respectively the peak shaving depth alpha of newly built thermal power plants and hydraulic power plants _l 、α _m Peak shaving depth, P, of the established thermal power plant and hydraulic power plant respectively _i 、P _j Respectively output power P for newly built thermal power generating unit and hydroelectric generating unit _l 、P _m Respectively the output of the built thermal power generating unit and the hydroelectric generating unit, N _f And N _h Respectively for newly-built thermal power generating units and hydroelectric generating units, N _0,f And N _0,h The number of the established thermal power generating units and the number of the established hydroelectric generating units, N _WG For the number of newly-built wind power plants, N _0,WG For the number of established wind farms, η _WG As a confidence coefficient of the wind power generation,

the installed capacity of the r-th wind farm,

the installed capacity of the s-th solar farm,

installed capacity of the v-th solar farm, W _x The energy storage capacity configured for the xth wind power plant comprises an established wind power plant and a newly-built wind power plant, W _y The energy storage capacity configured for the y solar power station comprises the built solar power station and a newly-built solar power station; n is a radical of hydrogen _cha 、N _cha 、N _user Respectively showing the quantity of the electric automobile charging and replacing station, the electric automobile and the energy storage configuration at the user side, P _z,cha 、P _a,car 、P _b,user Respectively representing the discharge power of the z, a and b electric automobile charging and replacing power stations, electric automobiles and user side energy storage; alpha represents the peak-valley electricity price difference, f (alpha) represents the willingness coefficient that the user of the electric automobile wants to transmit electricity back to the power grid in the peak time period when the peak-valley electricity price difference is alpha, and g (alpha) represents the willingness coefficient that the user-side energy storage is willing to transmit electricity back to the power grid in the peak time period when the peak-valley electricity price difference is alpha;

the maximum peak-valley difference of the system load comprises the reduction of the peak-valley difference of the system caused by charging of an electric vehicle charging station, an electric vehicle and user side energy storage in a low valley period.

The method comprises the steps of establishing a lower-layer production optimization problem containing decision variables on the basis of an investment decision model, wherein the planning target is the minimization of the operation cost, the lower-layer production optimization problem can be divided into two sub-problems of a unit maintenance plan and a random production simulation, the decision variables are respectively the maintenance time interval of a generator set and the operation position of each generator set on a load curve, the generated energy, the fuel consumption, the environmental protection cost and the energy abandoning cost of each generator set can be obtained through production optimization decisions, and therefore the operation cost of a planning scheme is calculated. The established model for minimizing the lower-layer operating cost is as follows:

where b is the total operating cost of the planning scheme and b _ft 、b _ht 、b _wt 、b _vt 、b _0t And respectively representing the operating costs of a thermal power plant to be selected, a hydraulic power plant, a wind power plant, a photovoltaic power plant and an existing power plant including an extra-high voltage in the T year, wherein T is a planning period.

The operation cost of the hydraulic power plant, the wind power plant and the solar power station comprises energy abandonment cost crs, and the calculation mode is as follows:

crs＝c·(P _rs,max -P _rs,real )

in the formula, c is unit energy abandoning punishment cost; p _rs,max The device is a renewable energy source unit and can output the actual maximum output; p _rs,real And (4) actual output of the renewable energy unit after scheduling.

The constraint conditions of the lower model comprise unit maintenance constraint, system reliability constraint and pollutant emission constraint, and specifically comprise the following steps:

1) maintenance constraint of unit

M(m,t)＝0

In the formula, m is a unit maintenance variable; m (M, t) is a unit maintenance constraint function, including unit maintenance time constraint, maintenance force constraint and the like.

2) System reliability constraints

3) Restraint of pollutant discharge amount

In the formula, R _tq The total pollutant amount discharged in the production process of the tth power plant;

the maximum amount of pollutants allowed to be discharged during the production of each power plant.

(4) Hybrid particle swarm algorithm

The hybrid particle swarm algorithm (CGPSO algorithm) is adopted to solve the double-layer power supply planning model, the upper-layer planning of the cost minimized double-layer power supply planning model, namely the power supply investment decision, belongs to the integer planning problem, and the hybrid particle swarm algorithm is very effective in solving the problem. Each particle corresponds to a power supply investment decision scheme, a minimum cumulative risk degree method and an equivalent electric quantity frequency method are respectively adopted for each power supply investment decision scheme to carry out unit maintenance planning and random production simulation, the obtained comprehensive operation cost is fed back to an upper-layer objective function value, and global optimization is carried out through an optimization mechanism of a particle swarm algorithm.

Setting an integer variable x by taking the planning year of each unit as an integer decision variable _n (0≤x _n T ≦ T) represents the year of the nth unit, when x is _n And when the value is 0, the unit is not built. So that the growing points can be expressed in the form of a sequence of integers, { x ₁ ，x ₂ ，…，x _n ，…，x _N Dimension is equal to N, the length is reduced to 1/T relative to binary coding, and the decision variables automatically meet the project progress constraint without specially carrying out constraint detection.

For the traditional particle swarm algorithm, the main improvement measures of the hybrid particle swarm algorithm are as follows:

1) chaos optimization

The chaotic optimization searches a solution by using the characteristics of global traversal and pseudo-random of the chaotic variables, and is widely applied because the chaotic optimization has the advantages of global convergence, easy jump out of local optimum and rapid convergence. In order to improve the defects, the hybrid particle swarm algorithm adopts the following mapping equation:

x(t+1)＝[sin(8πx(t))+1] ² /4

the chaotic mapping is introduced into the particle swarm optimization, and the random number r in the standard particle swarm optimization ₁ And r ₂ Is [0,1 ] satisfying uniform distribution]Is followed byThe number of machines is mapped by chaos, and the expression is as follows:

v _iS (t+1)＝wv _iS (t)+c ₁ r _1s (t)[p _is -x _is (t)]+c ₂ r _2s (t)[p _gs -x _is (t)]

r _1s (t)＝[sin(8πr _1s (t-1))+1] ² /4

r _2s (t)＝[sin(8πr _2s (t-1))+1] ² /4

2) terrain knowledge evaluation mechanism

The core idea of terrain knowledge is to divide the whole search space into many subspaces and to make the generation of descendant individuals during the search process to find the best individual in the subspaces. The realization process is as follows: 1) each dimension is divided into a number of sub-regions according to the variable dimension. 2) And combining the sub-regions divided according to each dimension to form a subspace of the existing search space. 3) And grading the subspaces according to the subspaces of the existing population individuals. 4) And (4) guiding the population to perform variation according to the rating result to generate filial generation individuals.

If the original search space is divided into L subspaces, the total space can be expressed as a combination of the subspaces, and the mathematical expression is as follows:

CS(t)＝{C ₁ (t),C ₂ (t),...,C _L (t)}

where each subspace may be represented as C under terrain knowledge _r (t), the mathematical expression is as follows:

C _r (t)＝{L _r (t),U _r (t),state _r (t),d _r (t),pt _r (t)}

wherein, Lr (t), Ur (t) -the lower limit and the upper limit of the r subspace variable at the t iteration; state _r (t) -a rating class for the nth subspace at the tth iteration; d _r (t) -the number of splits of the r subspace at the t-th iteration; pt is _r (t) -variant fission pointers.

state _r The expression (t) is as follows:

in the formula, f (X) _r,best ) -the value of the objective function represented by the optimal individual in the subspace r; f (X) _r,avg ) -average value of the objective function values of all individuals of the whole population space; p (t) -the entire population space; c _r (t) -the r-th population subspace; h-this subspace is evaluated as the excellence space in which the search is best done on the next iteration; NE-No individual still exists in this subspace so far, and the quality of this space is unknown; l-this space is rated as a poor quality space, and this space can be avoided for searching in the next iteration.

3) Adaptive chaotic variant

In order to avoid the premature and local optimization of the population, the method introduces chaotic variation operation based on population fitness variance judgment, and the population fitness variance calculation formula is as follows:

in the formula, f _i -fitness value of the ith particle; f. of _avg -an average of the current fitness values; f-normalization factor.

If σ ² When the sigma is too small, the algorithm is more convergent and is more easy to fall into local optimum, so the self-adaptive threshold epsilon is set in the invention, and when the sigma is ² And when the particle size is less than or equal to epsilon, chaotic variation operation needs to be carried out on the globally optimal particles in the population. The method provides a self-adaptive cosine chaotic variation threshold value variation method in consideration of the condition that the population generally has strong optimization performance at the early stage and is not easy to fall into the local optimum, and the variation frequency needs to be increased at the later stage so as to jump out of the local optimum, and the expression of the method is as follows:

in the formula, epsilon _min -minimum value of chaotic variance threshold; epsilon _max Maximum value of chaotic variance threshold.

When sigma is ² And performing chaotic variation on the population when the value is less than or equal to epsilon, and performing chaotic mapping and inverse mapping on the population by using independent variable value range by adopting Logistic chaotic mapping. The expression is as follows:

for y _is And performing chaotic variation operation.

Where, μ — chaotic mapping factor; y-normalized quantity; y is _s -chaotic mapped quantities; x is the number of _s -the inverse mapped quantities; x is the number of _max And x _min -the argument value corresponds to the actual problem.

4) Inertial weight coefficient and learning factor adjustment

The introduction of an inertia weight stop threshold Svalue can effectively reduce the calculation times of the inertia weight w in the iteration process, the invention combines the characteristic of decreasing the inertia weight, adopts the inertia weight decreased by an adaptive cosine function, divides the decreasing state into a normal state and an adjusting state by setting the stop threshold Svalue, and then (w-w) is carried out _min ) Entering an adjusting state when the value is less than Svalue, and updating the inertia weight to be w _min Otherwise, the state is considered as a normal state, a cosine decreasing inertial weight strategy is adopted, and the updating expression of the cosine decreasing inertial weight is as follows:

w＝[(w _max -w _min )/2]cos(πt/T _max )+(w _max +w _min )/2

in the formula, w _max -an artificially set inertial weight factor maximum; w is a _min -inertial weight factor minimum; t is _max -maximum number of iterations.

The adjustment process is as follows:

the method adopts a strategy pair c of asynchronous variation learning factors ₁ 、c ₂ The adjustment is performed, and the expression is as follows:

in the formula, c _1F 、c _1l -learning factor c ₁ Adjusted maximum and minimum values; c. C _2F 、c _2l -learning factor c ₂ Adjusted maximum and minimum values.

5) Updating strategy integrating Gaussian disturbance

Replacing the individual optimum p with the average of the sum of the individual optimum of the particles to which the gaussian perturbation factor is added in the velocity update equation _is (t) of (d). The method can improve the searching capability and efficiency of the algorithm and can effectively help the particles jump out of the local optimal value. The specific mathematical expression is as follows:

in the formula, N is the number of population particles; gaussian-satisfies Gaussian distribution of random numbers; μ -mean value; σ -standard deviation.

Adding the Gaussian disturbance factor into the position updating model to obtain an expression as follows:

x _is (t+1)＝wx _is (t)+Δ+c ₂ r ₂ (p _g (t)-x _is (t))

6) out-of-range random mutation processing strategy

The upper limit and the lower limit of the standard PSO algorithm are directly taken on the boundary processing, so that the algorithm is easy to fall into the local optimum at the upper limit and the lower limit in the search process, and the global optimization performance of the algorithm is greatly reduced. In order to improve the existing problems, a variation boundary crossing processing method with random factors is specially adopted, and the strategy expression is as follows:

where ξ -pseudo-random numbers obey a uniform distribution.

7) Natural selection operation

In order to improve the situation that particles are easy to fall into local optimum and simultaneously keep population diversity, the invention introduces natural selection operation in the particle swarm algorithm, thereby enabling the algorithm to have global exploration capability. The method is based on a sorting selection method, the contemporary particle swarm is sorted according to a new fitness value, and then the particle with the front rho (elimination rate) in the swarm is used for replacing the particle with the worst rear rho, namely, the existing method is superior and inferior.

The mixed particle swarm algorithm comprises the following steps:

step 2: initializing a population space and a belief space;

step 7: natural selection is carried out in the population space, and elite individuals stored in the situation knowledge are used for replacing poorer individuals in the population space, so that the individual optimum and the global optimum of the population space are updated;

step 10: calculating the variance sigma of population fitness ² . Calculating the self-adaptive variation threshold value if epsilon and if sigma according to the iteration number ² If not more than epsilon, performing Logistic chaotic variation on the global optimal value of the population;

step 11: if the termination requirement is met, exiting the algorithm; otherwise, go back to Step 4.

Examples

In the embodiment, the method for planning the power supply structure of the power supply of the transmitting-end power grid considering the local load peak regulation capability is applied to a certain region A in China to meet the power supply expansion requirement of the region in 2020, the local load peak regulation capability is emphasized, and the new energy participation peak regulation, the clean energy abandonment cost, the peak regulation requirement, the channel constraint, the demand response and other factors are considered. The water and electricity in the area account for most, and various types of machine assembling machines in 2017 are as follows: the power generation system comprises 8597 ten thousand kilowatts of hydroelectric power, 3361 ten thousand kilowatts of thermal power, 244 ten thousand kilowatts of wind power, 226 ten thousand kilowatts of solar power and 26 ten thousand kilowatts of other types of units, wherein the total is 12454 ten thousand kilowatts. The planned increase of unit capacity in 2020 is as follows: 2380 ten thousand kilowatts of thermal power, 12025 ten thousand kilowatts of hydroelectric power, 4850 ten thousand kilowatts of wind power, 1940 ten thousand kilowatts of solar energy, and 21195 ten thousand kilowatts in total.

And obtaining a 2020 power supply planning scheme of the A region according to the existing power supply capacity and layout, the peak regulation requirement and relevant specifications of the power grid in the southwest region and the to-be-selected power supply set of the A region in 2020. In 2020, the total planned capacity is 15164MW, wherein the thermal power unit is newly added with 2161MW, the hydroelectric power unit is newly added with 9470MW, the wind power unit is newly added with 2422MW, and the solar energy is newly added with 1111 MW. The candidate set versus actual planning scheme is shown in table 1.

Table 12020 years area a power supply alternative set and actual planning result

Unit: MW

Item	Collection to be selected	Actual planning	Ratio of
				Thermal power	2380	2161	14.2％
Water and electricity	12025	9470	62.4％
				Wind power generation	4850	2422	15.9％
Photovoltaic system	1940	1111	7.5％
				Total up to	21195	15164	100％

In order to fully utilize abundant water resources, the planned power supply in the A region in 2020 still mainly comprises a hydroelectric generating set, and the planned capacity reaches 9470MW and accounts for 62.4 percent of the total planned capacity. Meanwhile, as the peak regulation pressure is increased day by day, the peak regulation capacity of the region A is in urgent need to be improved, so that 2161MW needs to be planned for the thermal power generating unit, which is close to the capacity to be selected and accounts for 14.2% of the total planned capacity, but the expansion capacity of the thermal power generating unit is not large compared with that of a hydroelectric power generating unit due to the environment pollution of the coal power generating unit. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation have the characteristics of environmental protection and cleanness, although the cost is higher than that of a thermal power machine assembling machine, the operation almost has zero cost and is pollution-free, so that the planning has certain advantages, the installed capacity is increased quickly, the total planned capacity of the wind power and the photovoltaic power generation reaches 3533MW, and the total planned capacity accounts for 23.4% of the total planned capacity. The present example will analyze the pattern in terms of power balance, reliability level, and peak shaver results.

TABLE 2A region 2020 Power supply planning scheme electric Power balance Table

Unit: MW

The maximum load of the area A in the full dry period predicted in 2020 is 69660MW and 63420MW respectively, the total capacity of the internal and external power supplies in the area 2020 in the planning scheme is 137005MW, the internal power supply installation 129285MW is arranged in the area, and the external power supply is 7720 MW. Through power supply optimization, the planning result can guarantee the requirements of 2020 power supply and standby, the standby rates in the withering period reach 21% and 25% respectively, and the standby is sufficient and can be used as the reference for power supply planning in the area A. The power supply ratio in the planning scheme is shown, for example, in fig. 4.

As can be seen from fig. 4, in the planning scheme, the installed power of the area a in 2020 is mainly water and electricity, which accounts for about 69%, and compared with 2017, the hydroelectric generating set is slowly increased, and the annual average speed increase is only 1.15%, because the internal water and electricity resources in the area a are rich, a large amount of water and electricity can still be obtained particularly after the requirement of external transportation is met in a rich water period, and the installed power capacity of water and electricity is large, so that the utilization rate of the whole network is high, and the demand for increasing the installed power is not particularly urgent; the thermal power installation accounts for 24% of the total installation of the whole network, the thermal power operation cost is high, and the waste gas and waste residue discharged by the coal-electricity generating units pollute the environment, so that thermal power and other clean renewable energy are fully utilized, the thermal power is stopped from 1/4 to 1/2 all the year round, the thermal power development is gradually limited, the scale of thermal power to be selected is greatly reduced, and some thermal power generating units are planned and installed to meet the peak regulation requirement of the system, so that the annual average growth rate is 3.6%; although the installed capacity of the wind power and the photovoltaic power is not high and totally accounts for 7 percent of the total installed capacity, the annual growth rate of the wind power and the photovoltaic power respectively reaches 44 percent and 22.9 percent. The wind and light resources in the area A are rich, particularly, the area B is good in illumination, the illumination intensity and the illumination time are superior to those in other areas across the country, meanwhile, the area C is rich in wind power resources, and the annual generation hours of the wind and light resources are all in other areas across the country. Abundant wind and light resources and zero operation cost, although the installation cost is higher, still have certain economic advantage, can increase the investment of wind turbine generator system and photovoltaic in the future.

Table 3A power supply planning scheme electricity balance table in 2020 of area

Unit: hundred million kWh

The electricity utilization demand in 2020 of the area A is predicted to be 3800 hundred million kWh, the total amount of electricity provided by the internal and external power supplies in the power supply planning scheme area is 3905 hundred million kWh, the 2020 year electricity demand in the area A can be met, and the surplus is 105 hundred million kilowatt-hours. The power generation capacity of each type of unit is shown in figure 5.

In the planning scheme, the majority of the generated energy in 2020 in the area A is hydroelectric power, which accounts for 73%, the generated energy of photovoltaic power and wind power respectively accounts for 5% and 7%, and the thermal power generating units are provided with units which are stopped all the year round, so that the final generated energy of thermal power only accounts for 19%, the total generated energy of clean energy accounts for 81%, and the generated electricity in the area A is clean and efficient.

TABLE 4A technical indexes of 2020 Power supply planning scheme in region

As can be seen from table 4, in the power supply planning scheme in southwest 2020 of the planning method, the total cost of the power supply planning scheme includes two parts, i.e., the investment and the operating cost of the power plant to be built, wherein the operating cost is mainly based on the fuel cost, and the pollution discharge cost is also considered. According to the planning result, although the unit investment of the hydroelectric generating set, the wind generating set and the photovoltaic generating set is higher than that of the thermal generating set, the unit generating cost of the hydroelectric generating set, the wind generating set and the photovoltaic generating set is very low, and as a clean energy generating form, the hydroelectric generating set, the wind generating set and the photovoltaic generating set can ensure preferential generation in random production simulation and can replace part of electric quantity of the thermal generating set, so that a large amount of coal consumption and running cost are saved, and therefore, the hydroelectric generating set, the wind generating set and the photovoltaic generating set can be selected and put into operation preferentially in a power supply candidate set.

Meanwhile, due to sufficient reserve, the power supply planning result can ensure higher reliability in area A, and the LOLP is 2.81 multiplied by 10 ^-4 The EENS is 461MWh, the reliability level is higher, and the feasibility of a planning scheme is ensured. In addition, the planning result of the subject shows SO ₂ With NO _X The emission of main pollutants is in the national regulation range, and the environmental advantages are relatively obvious.

TABLE 5A MODEL 2020 PEAK-REGULATING BALANCE TABLE

Unit: MW

Item	Capacity of
		Maximum load	72000
Minimum load Rate (%)	60
		Maximum peak to valley difference	28800
Hot standby	3667
		Wind power negative standby	3281
Photovoltaic negative backup	1890
		Peak shaving capacity	37638
Peak shaving capacity	38165
		Peak shaving balance	+527

In the area A, the peak regulation pressure is large in the future, and a peak regulation power supply is urgently required to be built in a power grid. According to the peak regulation characteristic analysis of various power sources in combination with the energy structure and the future development trend of the area A, the possible peak regulation measures newly added in the future mainly comprise conventional hydroelectric generating sets, gas electricity and coal electricity, and uncertainty exists in the sizes of whether the extra-district water electricity, the extra-district thermal electricity and the like participate in peak regulation or not and the peak regulation capacity of the extra-district water electricity and the extra-district thermal electricity. Referring to the installation result, the intentional power supply is added into the to-be-selected set for optimization, the peak regulation capacity of the power supply planning scheme reaches 38165MW, the required peak regulation capacity is 37638MW, the peak regulation requirement can be met, and the surplus is 527MW, so that reference can be made for power supply construction in the area A.

The foregoing detailed description of the preferred embodiments of the invention has been presented. It should be understood that numerous modifications and variations could be devised by those skilled in the art in light of the present teachings without departing from the inventive concepts. Therefore, the technical solutions available to those skilled in the art through logic analysis, reasoning and limited experiments based on the prior art according to the concept of the present invention should be within the scope of protection defined by the claims.

Claims

1. A method for planning a power supply structure of a power supply of a transmitting-end power grid in consideration of local load peak regulation capacity is characterized by comprising the following steps:

1) acquiring unit data, load related data and price information data;

4) solving the power supply structure planning model by adopting a hybrid particle swarm algorithm based on the step 3) to obtain an optimal power supply structure planning scheme;

the power supply structure planning model is a double-layer optimization model, wherein the upper layer model is a power supply investment decision problem, the planning target is the minimization of power generation cost, and the decision variable is whether a unit to be selected is put into operation or not; the lower layer model is a production optimization decision problem, and the planning target is the maintenance time interval of the minimum generator set of the operating cost and the operating position of each generator set on the load curve;

in the double-layer optimization model, an objective function of an upper layer model is expressed as:

wherein B is the present value of the total investment cost of the planning scheme, B _ft 、B _ht 、B _wt 、B _vt Respectively representing the investment costs of a thermal power plant, a hydraulic power plant, a wind power plant and a solar power station to be selected in the T year, wherein T is a planning period;

the peak regulation capacity constraint considers the participation of a wind power plant and a solar power station in peak regulation and the peak regulation capacity of local loads, wherein the local loads comprise electric vehicles, electric vehicle charging and replacing stations and user side energy storage;

the peak shaver capability constraint is expressed as:

in the formula, alpha _i 、α _j Respectively the peak shaving depth alpha of newly built thermal power plants and hydraulic power plants _l 、α _m Peak shaving depth, P, of the established thermal power plant and hydraulic power plant respectively _i 、P _j Respectively for newly-built thermal power generating unit and hydroelectric generating unit to output power P _l 、P _m Respectively the output of the built thermal power generating unit and the hydroelectric generating unit, N _f And N _h Respectively the number of newly built thermal power generating units and hydroelectric generating units, N _0,f And N _0,h The number of the established thermal power generating units and the number of the established hydroelectric generating units, N _WG For the number of newly-built wind power plants, N _0,WG For the number of established wind farms, η _WG As a confidence coefficient of the wind power generation,

the installed capacity of the r-th wind farm,

installed capacity of the u wind farm, N _0,SG Number of built solar farms, N _SG Number of solar farms to be newly built, eta _SG As a confidence coefficient of the solar power generation,

the installed capacity of the s-th solar farm,

installed capacity of the v-th solar farm, W _x The energy storage capacity configured for the xth wind power plant comprises an established wind power plant and a newly-built wind power plant, W _y The energy storage capacity configured for the y-th solar power station comprises an established solar power station and a newly-built solar power station; n is a radical of _cha 、N _car 、N _user Respectively showing the quantity of the electric automobile charging and replacing station, the electric automobile and the energy storage configuration at the user side, P _z,cha 、P _a,car 、P _b,user Respectively representing the discharge power of the z, a and b electric automobile charging and replacing power stations, electric automobiles and user side energy storage; alpha represents the peak-valley electricity price difference, f (alpha) represents the willingness coefficient that the user of the electric automobile wants to transmit electricity back to the power grid in the peak time period when the peak-valley electricity price difference is alpha, and g (alpha) represents the willingness coefficient that the user-side energy storage is willing to transmit electricity back to the power grid in the peak time period when the peak-valley electricity price difference is alpha;

the maximum peak-to-valley difference of the system load.

2. The method for planning the power supply structure of the sending-end power grid in consideration of the local load peak shaving capacity according to claim 1, wherein in the step 3), the unit maintenance plan is obtained through a minimum cumulative risk method.

3. The method for planning the power supply structure of the power supply network at the sending end with the local load peak shaving capacity taken into consideration according to claim 1, wherein in the random production simulation, production simulation of an extra-high voltage, a hydroelectric generating set and a new energy source set in multiple regions is taken into consideration based on an equivalent electric quantity frequency method.

4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the maximum peak-to-valley difference of the system load comprises a reduction amount of the system peak-to-valley difference caused by charging the electric vehicle charging station, the electric vehicle, and the user side energy storage during a low-valley period.

5. The method for planning a power supply structure of a transmitting-end power grid considering the local load peak shaving capacity according to claim 1, wherein in the double-layer optimization model, an objective function of a lower-layer model is represented as:

where b is the total operating cost of the planning scheme and b _ft 、b _ht 、b _wt 、b _vt 、b _0t Respectively representing the operating costs of a thermal power plant to be selected, a hydraulic power plant, a wind power plant, a solar power station and an existing power plant including an extra-high voltage in the T-th year, wherein T is a planning period;

6. The method for planning the power supply structure of the power supply of the transmitting-end power grid considering the local load peak regulation capability of claim 1, wherein when the power supply structure planning model is solved by adopting the hybrid particle swarm algorithm, each particle corresponds to one power supply structure planning scheme, a unit maintenance plan and random production simulation are respectively carried out on each power supply structure planning scheme, the obtained comprehensive operation cost is fed back to an upper layer model, and global optimization is carried out through an optimization mechanism of the particle swarm algorithm.

7. The method for planning a power supply structure of a power supply terminal of a power supply network considering local load peak regulation capacity of claim 1, wherein the specific process of solving the power supply structure planning model by adopting a hybrid particle swarm algorithm comprises the following steps:

step 2: initializing a population space and a belief space;