CN116542489A - Power system planning method and system considering carbon emission constraint - Google Patents
Power system planning method and system considering carbon emission constraint Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power system planning method and system considering carbon emission constraint, comprising the following steps: constructing an optimization objective function by taking the minimum period cost of a newly-built project in a planning period as a target; determining constraint conditions required to meet low-carbon operation of the power system; acquiring a plurality of power supply and power grid construction schemes, analyzing each scheme based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions, and determining the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient electric quantity corresponding to each construction scheme; performing scheme evaluation based on the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient power quantity corresponding to each construction scheme, and determining an alternative construction scheme; and screening and optimizing the alternative construction scheme until convergence is achieved, and determining a target construction scheme so as to conduct power system planning based on the target construction scheme. The invention can simulate the installed capacity of various power supplies, the utilization rate of new energy, the carbon emission of the power industry, the investment construction scheme of the power industry and the like in the future, and provides a feasible reference scheme for power grid construction.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of electric power carbon emission reduction, in particular to an electric power system planning method and system considering carbon emission constraint.
Background
Under the prediction boundary condition of electricity demand, the carbon emission reduction model in the electric power industry is essentially a source network coordination planning problem of power supply structure, power supply capacity, power supply space layout and trans-regional power transmission capacity, generally takes the minimum annual cost in the planning period as an optimization target, namely solves the problem of 'when and where what power supply is built' and 'how much is needed by networking scale', can achieve the best economic benefit, and takes electric power and electricity balance, carbon emission and new energy utilization rate as constraint conditions.
The existing models mainly comprise linear programming, integer programming, nonlinear programming, multi-objective programming and the like. The linear programming has earliest appearance time, simple principle and wide application range. The method assumes that the power generation of the power unit and the power distribution of the power grid keep approximately linear output, then the linear model is used for fitting planning, and the method is particularly widely used in a power supply system considering stable power supply mainly of thermal power generation. Integer programming is a special existence of linear programming, and although the linear programming is simplified on the surface, the calculation workload is large when the integer programming is used in power supply programming, and the difficulty of obtaining the optimal solution is also large. The nonlinear programming has wide applicability and various solving modes. The solving modes of different nonlinear programming problems are not completely the same. The multi-objective planning mainly solves the problem of optimal solutions of multiple objective functions, and in the process of converting multiple objectives into single objectives, the allocation of objective weighting values needs subjective determination.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a power system planning method and system considering carbon emission constraint, which are used for solving the problem of how to determine a low-carbon scheme of a power system.
In order to solve the above-described problems, according to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided an electric power system planning method considering carbon emission constraints, the method including:
constructing an optimization objective function by taking the minimum period cost of a newly-built project in a planning period as a target;
determining constraint conditions required to meet low-carbon operation of the power system;
acquiring a plurality of power supply and power grid construction schemes, analyzing each scheme based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions, and determining the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient electric quantity corresponding to each construction scheme;
performing scheme evaluation based on the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient power quantity corresponding to each construction scheme, and determining an alternative construction scheme;
and screening and optimizing the alternative construction scheme until convergence is achieved, and determining a target construction scheme so as to conduct power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
Preferably, the constructing the optimization objective function with the goal of minimizing the periodical cost of the newly created project in the planning period includes:
Wherein F is a target value; g is the number of newly built projects; t is the number of cycles;is->The new project is at->Investment cost of each cycle; />Is->The new project is at->Fixed operation and maintenance costs for each cycle; />Is->The personal power plant is at%>Fuel costs for each cycle; />Is->The interconnection line is at the->The transmission cost of each period is the product of the transmission electric quantity and the electricity charge; n (N) EX The number of tie lines; />Is the number of existing items; n (N) ZN Is the number of regions; />Is->The individual region is at->Load loss fee for each cycle; />Is->The individual region is at->Carbon trapping and sealing cost of each period; r is the discount rate; />Is the fund recovery rate; />Is a first proportional coefficient; />Is a second scaling factor; />Is->Capacity of each new projectAn amount of; />Is->Price of each new project; />Is the firstEngineering life of the new project.
Preferably, wherein the constraint comprises: the method comprises the following steps of electric power and electric quantity balance constraint, power generation technical characteristic constraint of various power supplies, tie line transmission constraint, natural resource constraint of new energy construction, annual power supply capacity constraint, investment sum constraint in each period, new energy utilization constraint and carbon emission constraint.
Preferably, the analyzing each solution based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, determining the power shortage capacity and the power shortage corresponding to each construction solution includes:
for any scheme, determining planning scheme data based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions and combining current situation data, and performing power overhaul arrangement based on the planning scheme data;
for any scheme, starting up arrangement is carried out on various units according to an electric power balance rule, the spare capacity of the power support of the cross-region is determined, and the starting and stopping plan of the coal motor unit is determined;
for any scheme, carrying out output arrangement of various units per hour in one period, determining new energy and hydropower utilization and electricity discarding arrangement, and determining cross-region tie line arrangement;
and calculating annual carbon emission according to the power overhaul arrangement, the coal motor group start-stop plan and the cross-region tie arrangement corresponding to each scheme, and determining the electric power shortage capacity and the electric quantity shortage corresponding to each construction scheme.
Preferably, the selecting optimizing based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, determining the target construction scheme includes:
and screening and optimizing according to a win-win or lose-loss GA algorithm or a PSO algorithm based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, and determining a target construction scheme so as to carry out power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided an electrical power system planning system taking into account carbon emission constraints, the system comprising:
the objective function construction unit is used for constructing an optimized objective function by taking the minimum period cost of a newly-built project in the planning period as a target;
the constraint condition determining unit is used for determining constraint conditions required to meet low-carbon operation of the power system;
the scheme analysis unit is used for acquiring a plurality of power supply and power grid construction schemes, analyzing each scheme based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, and determining the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient electric quantity corresponding to each construction scheme;
an alternative construction scheme determining unit for performing scheme evaluation based on the electric power shortage capacity and the electric quantity shortage corresponding to each construction scheme, and determining an alternative construction scheme;
and the target construction scheme determining unit is used for screening and optimizing based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, determining a target construction scheme and planning the power system based on the target construction scheme.
Preferably, the objective function construction unit is configured to construct an optimized objective function with a minimum period cost of newly created items in the planning period as a goal, and includes:
Wherein F is a target value; g is the number of newly built projects; t is the number of cycles;is->The new project is at->Investment cost of each cycle; />Is->The new project is at->Fixed operation and maintenance costs for each cycle; />Is the firstThe personal power plant is at%>Fuel costs for each cycle; />Is->The interconnection line is at the->The transmission cost of each period is the product of the transmission electric quantity and the electricity charge; n (N) EX The number of tie lines; />Is the number of existing items; n (N) ZN Is the number of regions; />Is->The individual region is at->Load loss fee for each cycle; />Is->The individual region is at->Carbon trapping and sealing cost of each period; r is the discount rate; />Is the fund recovery rate; />Is a first proportional coefficient; />Is a second scaling factor;is->The capacity of the individual new projects; />Is->Price of each new project; />Is->Engineering life of the new project.
Preferably, wherein the constraint comprises: the method comprises the following steps of electric power and electric quantity balance constraint, power generation technical characteristic constraint of various power supplies, tie line transmission constraint, natural resource constraint of new energy construction, annual power supply capacity constraint, investment sum constraint in each period, new energy utilization constraint and carbon emission constraint.
Preferably, the solution analysis unit analyzes each solution based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, and determines a power shortage capacity and a power shortage corresponding to each construction solution, including:
for any scheme, determining planning scheme data based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions and combining current situation data, and performing power overhaul arrangement based on the planning scheme data;
for any scheme, starting up arrangement is carried out on various units according to an electric power balance rule, the spare capacity of the power support of the cross-region is determined, and the starting and stopping plan of the coal motor unit is determined;
for any scheme, carrying out output arrangement of various units per hour in one period, determining new energy and hydropower utilization and electricity discarding arrangement, and determining cross-region tie line arrangement;
and calculating annual carbon emission according to the power overhaul arrangement, the coal motor group start-stop plan and the cross-region tie arrangement corresponding to each scheme, and determining the electric power shortage capacity and the electric quantity shortage corresponding to each construction scheme.
Preferably, the target construction scheme determining unit performs screening and optimizing based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, and determines a target construction scheme, including:
And screening and optimizing according to a win-win or lose-loss GA algorithm or a PSO algorithm based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, and determining a target construction scheme so as to carry out power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
The invention provides a power system planning method and system considering carbon emission constraint, comprising the following steps: constructing an optimization objective function by taking the minimum period cost of a newly-built project in a planning period as a target; determining constraint conditions required to meet low-carbon operation of the power system; acquiring a plurality of power supply and power grid construction schemes, analyzing each scheme based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions, and determining the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient electric quantity corresponding to each construction scheme; performing scheme evaluation based on the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient power quantity corresponding to each construction scheme, and determining an alternative construction scheme; and screening and optimizing the alternative construction scheme until convergence is achieved, and determining a target construction scheme so as to conduct power system planning based on the target construction scheme. According to the invention, the mathematical programming model is built by taking the minimum period cost in the programming period as an optimization target and taking the balance of electric power and electricity, carbon emission and new energy utilization rate as constraint conditions, and the whole problem is decomposed into two layers of investment decision and production simulation during solving, so that the complex optimization problem solving process is simplified, the method is applicable to different types of programming problems such as linearity, nonlinearity, mixed integers and the like, and is beneficial to expanding new constraint rules, thereby realizing calculation of a carbon emission reduction model of an electric power system.
Drawings
Exemplary embodiments of the present invention may be more completely understood in consideration of the following drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method 100 of planning an electrical power system that takes into account carbon emission constraints, according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a two-layer solution framework for an electric carbon emission reduction model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an electrical power system planning system 300 that takes into account carbon emission constraints in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The exemplary embodiments of the present invention will now be described with reference to the accompanying drawings, however, the present invention may be embodied in many different forms and is not limited to the examples described herein, which are provided to fully and completely disclose the present invention and fully convey the scope of the invention to those skilled in the art. The terminology used in the exemplary embodiments illustrated in the accompanying drawings is not intended to be limiting of the invention. In the drawings, like elements/components are referred to by like reference numerals.
Unless otherwise indicated, terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art. In addition, it will be understood that terms defined in commonly used dictionaries should be interpreted as having a meaning that is consistent with their meaning in the context of the relevant art and will not be interpreted in an idealized or overly formal sense.
The invention provides a novel intelligent solving method for an electric power carbon emission reduction model with the characteristic of power structure optimization under the constraint of carbon emission, which is characterized in that a mathematical programming model is established by taking the minimum period cost in a programming period as an optimization target and taking electric power and electricity balance, carbon emission and new energy utilization rate as constraint conditions. In consideration of the problems that the system peak regulation and the new energy consumption related model are difficult to simplify into a linear model and the like, the whole problem is decomposed into two layers of investment decision and production simulation during solving, so that the solving of the electric power carbon emission reduction model is realized. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
(1) And constructing an optimization objective function by taking the minimum annual cost of a newly built project in a planning period as a target, wherein the annual cost comprises three parts of investment construction cost, fixed operation and maintenance cost and variable operation cost.
(2) In order to take into account the effect of the operation of the newly added project on the operation of the existing system, the variable operating cost is partly the operating cost of the whole system.
(3) The power and electricity balance constraint, the power generation technical characteristic constraint of various power supplies, the new energy utilization rate constraint, the carbon emission constraint and the like are considered.
(4) In the case of considering that a thermal power plant (biomass-containing power plant) adopts a carbon capture technology, the carbon emission increment part is allowed to realize the satisfaction of constraint conditions by the carbon capture technology.
(5) The whole problem is decomposed into two layers of solution of investment decision and production simulation.
(6) And solving by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm and improving the calculation speed by using an OpenMP multi-core parallel calculation method.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method 100 of planning an electrical power system that takes into account carbon emission constraints, according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, the power system planning method taking carbon emission constraint into consideration provided by the embodiment of the invention establishes a mathematical planning model by taking minimum period cost in a planning period as an optimization target and taking electric power and electricity balance, carbon emission and new energy utilization ratio as constraint conditions, and decomposes the whole problem into two layers of investment decision and production simulation when solving, so that a complex optimization problem solving process is simplified, the method is applicable to different types of planning problems such as linearity, nonlinearity, mixed integer and the like, and is beneficial to expanding new constraint rules, thereby realizing calculation of a carbon emission reduction model of a power system. The power system planning method 100 taking carbon emission constraint into consideration provided by the embodiment of the invention starts from step 101, and in step 101, an optimization objective function is constructed with the aim of minimizing the period cost of newly built projects in a planning period.
Preferably, the constructing the optimization objective function with the goal of minimizing the periodical cost of the newly created project in the planning period includes:
wherein F is a target value; g is the number of newly built projects; t is the number of cycles;is->The new project is at->Investment cost of each cycle; />Is->The new project is at->Fixed operation and maintenance costs for each cycle; />Is->The personal power plant is at%>Fuel costs for each cycle; />Is->The interconnection line is at the->The transmission cost of each period is the product of the transmission electric quantity and the electricity charge; n (N) EX The number of tie lines; />Is the number of existing items; n (N) ZN Is the number of regions; />Is->The individual region is at->Load loss fee for each cycle; />Is->The individual region is at->Carbon trapping and sealing cost of each period; r is the discount rate; />Is the fund recovery rate; />Is a first proportional coefficient; />Is a second scaling factor; />Is->The capacity of the individual new projects; />Is->Price of each new project; />Is->Engineering life of the new project.
In the present invention, one year is taken as a period. Therefore, the optimization objective function is constructed with the aim of minimizing annual cost of newly built projects in the planning period. Annual cost includes investment construction cost, fixed operation and maintenance cost and variable operation cost. The operation of the newly added project can have an influence on the operation of the existing system (for example, new energy is rapidly increased, and the fuel consumption of the existing thermal power plant is reduced), and in order to account for the influence, the variable operation cost part should be the operation cost of the whole system, mainly the cost of various fuels, the power transmission cost, the loss load cost, the carbon capture cost which must be adopted due to the exceeding of carbon emission, and the like. To enable the model to have user-defined features, the software user is allowed to trade off the cost of each part. In addition, the economic cost of the lost load cost and the carbon capture cost does not necessarily meet the market rule, and if the lost load is considered to be as small as possible and the carbon emission is considered to be optimized according to a specified path as much as possible, the corresponding punishment items are added to the two cost parts.
Considering the above cost contents, with the goal of minimum cost of the discount value of the reference year, the objective function is designed as follows:
wherein F is a target value;is->The new project is at->Annual investment costs (construction investments); />Is->The new project is at->The annual fixed operation cost (fixedoperation Expense) can be generally expressed as a fixed proportion of investment cost, for example, 3% -5% of investment cost is taken; />Is->The personal power plant is at%>Annual fuel costs; />Is->The interconnection line is at the->Annual power transmission cost is the product of the power transmission quantity and the electricity charge; />Is->The individual region is at->Annual load loss fee; />Is->The individual region is at->Annual carbon capture and sequestration costs; />For researching the years of the planning period, if solving in multiple stages, taking the years of the stages, and taking 1 as the planning year by year; />The number of newly-built projects comprises a power supply project and a power grid project; />Is the number of existing items; />The discount rate is a given value, such as 5%; />For recovering funds, for a given value, +.> ；/>For the coefficient of postulation, the +.>Annual funds are posted to the current year, and +.> ； />Is a first proportional coefficient; />Is the second scaling factor.
If the equivalent annual value in the planning period is calculated, only the integral multiplication of the fund recovery coefficient is needed And (3) obtaining the product. Wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,for fund recovery->Taking an overall planning period for the recovery period; investment and construction costs of the newly built project are allocated in the life cycle of the project; the fixed and variable operating costs of the system are apportioned over the planning period.
About project construction costsIt should be noted that, in order to make schemes with different equipment life construction project compositions comparable, there are two processing methods: one is to consider project restart when the equipment reaches the life in the planning period and deduct the residual value of the equipment at the end of the planning period; the second is to repeatedly restart the device to infinity in the future when it reaches its lifetime, and this calculation is a convergence level due to the consideration of time value. The second way is that the project is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,is->Capacity of each new project, unit: MW; />Is->Price of each new project, unit: ten thousand yuan/MW; />Is->Engineering life of the new project; />Is the discount rate; for the condition of retirement of the active machine set, construction cost is not generated, but fixed operation cost can be saved, so that the fixed operation cost is a negative value.
At step 102, it is determined that constraints for low-carbon operation of the power system need to be met.
Preferably, wherein the constraint comprises: the method comprises the following steps of electric power and electric quantity balance constraint, power generation technical characteristic constraint of various power supplies, tie line transmission constraint, natural resource constraint of new energy construction, annual power supply capacity constraint, investment sum constraint in each period, new energy utilization constraint and carbon emission constraint.
In the invention, the improper setting of the constraint condition can cause that the optimization result is difficult to meet the requirement, and even an error result is obtained. In general, the balance constraint of electric power and electric quantity, the constraint of the power generation technical characteristics of various power supplies, the constraint of the transmission of a connecting line, the constraint of natural resources for new energy construction, the constraint of the capacity of a new power supply, the constraint of annual investment sum, the constraint of the utilization rate of new energy, the constraint of carbon emission and the like need to be considered. In the construction of models, these constraints need to be chosen according to the purpose of the study and the boundary conditions set by the scene.
1) Power balance constraint
The sum of the available capacities of various power supplies meets the requirements of load and standby, and if the sum of the available capacities of various power supplies cannot meet the requirements, potential power failure risks can be generated. According to a deterministic electric power and electric quantity balance method, each research area is given with a reserve rate, for example, 5% of load reserve and 10% -15% of accident reserve. The capacity of each type of power supply to participate in balance should be determined based on its reliable output. For example, thermal power should have its technically blocked capacity subtracted; the water and electricity participate in balancing according to the expected power of the generated energy and water head limitation; wind power and photovoltaic are balanced according to the calculated credible capacity; pumped storage and energy storage participate in balance according to the capacity of peak clipping and valley filling.
2) Electric quantity balance constraint
The sum of the generated energy of various power supplies is not lower than the load demand and the network loss. The new energy source may generate waste electric energy under the constraint of the peak shaving capacity of the system, so that the actual electric energy generation capacity of the new energy source needs to be determined by combining the peak shaving balance condition.
3) Technical constraint of power generation
The operating output of various power sources should not exceed the rated capacity thereof. The output of the thermal power plant should not be lower than the minimum technical output limit. Hydropower plants should avoid or reduce the occurrence of water abandoning as much as possible.
4) Grid constraints
The arrangement power of the transmission channel does not exceed the rated capacity limit, and the trans-regional transmission capacity generally meets the technical economy and has reasonable utilization hours.
5) Natural resource constraints
The development potential of wind power, photovoltaic and hydropower is limited by resources, and the limitation and the development cost are related. For example, there is a non-linear relationship between offshore wind power development potential in a province and acceptable development costs.
6) Annual power capacity constraints
The capacity of the equipment is limited by manufacturing, installation and construction, etc., and the annual newly-increased installed capacity is limited.
7) Annual investment sum constraint
Limited by financial conditions, the annual investment sum may be at an upper limit.
8) New energy utilization constraint
The new energy may generate waste energy due to the constraint of the peak shaving capacity of the system, and the new energy utilization rate is set as an external variable, for example, the utilization rate is limited to 90% -95%.
9) Carbon emission constraints
The power sources such as coal power, gas power and the like generate CO2 emission, the total emission constraint of the system is given as an external variable, and the total emission constraint is reduced year by year until carbon neutralization is realized in 2060. When this constraint is not satisfied, the economic cost of carbon capture should be considered. Since the application of the new technology is always accompanied by high cost input in the early stage, the situation of gradual development of the technology cannot be accurately reflected by adopting the optimization problem with the minimum economic cost as a target. In this project, the technology maturation process of the CCUS is used as an external factor, from which the total emission can be determined in advance, and then used as a given constraint of a low-carbon model of the power industry.
In step 103, multiple power supply and power grid construction schemes are obtained, each scheme is analyzed based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, and the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient power quantity corresponding to each construction scheme are determined.
Preferably, the analyzing each solution based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, determining the power shortage capacity and the power shortage corresponding to each construction solution includes:
For any scheme, determining planning scheme data based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions and combining current situation data, and performing power overhaul arrangement based on the planning scheme data;
for any scheme, starting up arrangement is carried out on various units according to an electric power balance rule, the spare capacity of the power support of the cross-region is determined, and the starting and stopping plan of the coal motor unit is determined;
for any scheme, carrying out output arrangement of various units per hour in one period, determining new energy and hydropower utilization and electricity discarding arrangement, and determining cross-region tie line arrangement;
and calculating annual carbon emission according to the power overhaul arrangement, the coal motor group start-stop plan and the cross-region tie arrangement corresponding to each scheme, and determining the electric power shortage capacity and the electric quantity shortage corresponding to each construction scheme.
In step 104, a project evaluation is performed based on the electric power shortage capacity and the electric power shortage amount corresponding to each construction project, and an alternative construction project is determined.
In step 105, screening and optimizing are performed based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, and a target construction scheme is determined so as to perform power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
Preferably, the selecting optimizing based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, determining the target construction scheme includes:
And screening and optimizing according to a win-win or lose-loss GA algorithm or a PSO algorithm based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, and determining a target construction scheme so as to carry out power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
In the present invention, the whole problem is decomposed into two layers, namely an "investment decision" and a "production simulation", the schematic diagram of which is shown in fig. 2. The hierarchical structure simplifies the complex optimization problem solving process, is suitable for different types of planning problems such as linearity, nonlinearity, mixed integers and the like, and is beneficial to expanding new constraint rules.
The investment decision layer is responsible for dividing the whole planning period into a plurality of optimization stages according to the need, solving the optimization stages stage by stage, generating a plurality of planning schemes in each stage, evaluating objective function indexes of the planning schemes according to the result of the production simulation layer, and determining the choice and optimization direction of the planning schemes according to the evaluation result until satisfactory results are obtained by convergence.
The production simulation layer is responsible for carrying out time sequence operation simulation on each planning scheme and enabling the time sequence operation simulation to meet various technical constraints such as electric power and electricity balance and carbon emission as much as possible. And providing simulation results of electric power and electricity balance, carbon emission, new energy consumption and the like for an investment decision layer. The production simulation layer can conveniently expand the electric power market and the carbon trade market rules. The production simulation layer is used as an independent subprogram, so that multi-scheme task parallel solving can be realized, and the calculation speed is improved.
Referring to fig. 2, in the present invention, the calculation flow of the low-carbon path optimization model of the power system with carbon emission constraint, the intelligent solving method and system is as follows:
step one: data is input.
(1) System presence data is entered.
(2) And inputting data such as planned annual load demands, power retirement, power grid construction, carbon emission limitation, resource potential and the like.
Step two: planning stage division.
Dividing the planning period according to the stages, and completing the steps three to fourth one by one.
Step three: production simulation.
(1) And randomly generating a power supply and power grid construction scheme.
(2) And carrying out power supply maintenance arrangement by combining the current situation data and the planning scheme data.
(3) And starting up and arranging various units according to the power balance rule, determining the spare capacity of the power support of the cross-region, and determining the starting and stopping plan of the coal motor unit.
(4) And (5) performing various unit output arrangements for 8760 hours, determining new energy and hydropower utilization and electricity discarding arrangements, and determining cross-region tie arrangement.
(5) Calculating annual carbon emission, counting and establishing insufficient capacity and duration, and counting insufficient power.
Step four: and (5) evaluating results.
And (3) carrying out scheme evaluation according to the returned result of the step (III), determining an evaluation result, screening and optimizing according to a win-win or lose-obsolete GA algorithm or a PSO algorithm, and repeating until the returned result of the step (III) is converged.
Step five: and outputting a result.
And (3) completing the optimization of the whole planning period and outputting a calculation result.
In the invention, the particle swarm optimization method of the investment decision model comprises the following steps: the particle swarm algorithm starts from random solutions, each solution is called as particles, random speeds are allocated, the space searching direction and the step length are adjusted according to the self optimal value and the global optimal value, and finally the optimal solution of the whole solution space is searched in an iterative mode. Each iterative solution in the particle swarm algorithm is generally updated according to the following formula:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,is->The individual particles are at->The speed at which the iteration is performed; />Is an inertial weight; />、/>Is a learning factor; /> 、 />Is a uniformly distributed random number between (0, 1); />To cut off to->Iteration, th->The individual particles obtain a solution corresponding to the optimal target; />To cut off to->Iterating for the second time, and obtaining solutions corresponding to the optimal target values from all particles; />To cut off to->Iteration, th->The current solution of the individual particles.
The algorithm flow of the standard PSO is as follows:
initializing a population of microparticles (population size) Including random position and velocity;
evaluating the fitness of each particle, i.e. minimizing the objective functionEvaluating;
for each particle, its fitness value and the best position it has undergone If better, it is taken as the current best position +.> ；
For each particle, its fitness value and the best global experienced positionIf better, reset +.>Index number of (2);
varying the speed and position of the particles according to the above formula;
if the end condition is not reached, the adaptation value is usually good enough or a preset maximum algebra is reachedAnd returns to the production simulation stage. />
The OpenMP multi-core parallel computing method is adopted to improve the computing speed. OpenMP is a set of guiding compiling processing scheme for multiprocessor programming of a shared memory parallel system, the difficulty and complexity of parallel programming are reduced for high-level abstraction of parallel description, the simplest and practical method of parallel computing is applied, parallelization processing is carried out on for circulation, when a low-carbon emission reduction model of the power industry is implemented, relevant data of each solving year are copied into independent N parts (N is the number of particles), and therefore the safety of multithreading parallel is ensured.
The invention aims to fully consider the influence of a double-carbon target on the source network coordination planning problem of the power structure, the power capacity, the power space layout and the trans-regional power transmission capacity of China, simulate various installed capacities of power sources, new energy utilization rate, carbon emission of the power industry, investment construction schemes of the power industry and the like in forty years in China according to an integral optimization or stage-by-stage optimization mode, and provide a feasible reference scheme for power grid construction.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an electrical power system planning system 300 that takes into account carbon emission constraints in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 3, an electric power system planning system 300 taking into account carbon emission constraints according to an embodiment of the present invention includes: an objective function construction unit 301, a constraint condition determination unit 302, a solution analysis unit 303, an alternative construction solution determination unit 304, and an objective construction solution determination unit 305.
Preferably, the objective function construction unit 301 is configured to construct an optimized objective function with the goal of minimizing the period cost of the newly created project during the planning period.
Preferably, the objective function construction unit 301 constructs an optimized objective function with the goal of minimizing the periodic cost of the newly created project during the planning period, including:
wherein F is a target value; g is the number of newly built projects; t is the number of cycles;is->The new project is at->Investment cost of each cycle; />Is->The new project is at->Fixed operation and maintenance costs for each cycle; />Is->The personal power plant is at%>Fuel costs for each cycle; />Is->The interconnection line is at the->The transmission cost of each period is the product of the transmission electric quantity and the electricity charge; n (N) EX The number of tie lines; / >Is the number of existing items; n (N) ZN Is the number of regions; />Is->The individual region is at->Load loss fee for each cycle; />Is->The individual region is at->Carbon trapping and sealing cost of each period; r is a patchThe rate of occurrence; />Is the fund recovery rate; />Is a first proportional coefficient; />Is a second scaling factor; />Is->The capacity of the individual new projects; />Is->Price of each new project; />Is->Engineering life of the new project.
Preferably, the constraint condition determining unit 302 is configured to determine that a constraint condition of low-carbon operation of the electric power system needs to be satisfied.
Preferably, wherein the constraint comprises: the method comprises the following steps of electric power and electric quantity balance constraint, power generation technical characteristic constraint of various power supplies, tie line transmission constraint, natural resource constraint of new energy construction, annual power supply capacity constraint, investment sum constraint in each period, new energy utilization constraint and carbon emission constraint.
Preferably, the solution analysis unit 303 is configured to obtain multiple power supply and power grid construction solutions, analyze each solution based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, and determine the power shortage capacity and the power shortage amount corresponding to each construction solution.
Preferably, the solution analysis unit 303 analyzes each solution based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, and determines the power shortage capacity and the power shortage corresponding to each construction solution, including:
for any scheme, determining planning scheme data based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions and combining current situation data, and performing power overhaul arrangement based on the planning scheme data;
for any scheme, starting up arrangement is carried out on various units according to an electric power balance rule, the spare capacity of the power support of the cross-region is determined, and the starting and stopping plan of the coal motor unit is determined;
for any scheme, carrying out output arrangement of various units per hour in one period, determining new energy and hydropower utilization and electricity discarding arrangement, and determining cross-region tie line arrangement;
and calculating annual carbon emission according to the power overhaul arrangement, the coal motor group start-stop plan and the cross-region tie arrangement corresponding to each scheme, and determining the electric power shortage capacity and the electric quantity shortage corresponding to each construction scheme.
Preferably, the alternative construction scheme determining unit 304 is configured to determine the alternative construction scheme based on the power shortage capacity and the electric quantity shortage corresponding to each construction scheme for performing scheme evaluation.
Preferably, the target construction scheme determining unit 305 is configured to perform screening optimization based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, determine a target construction scheme, and perform power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
Preferably, the target construction scheme determining unit 305 performs screening and optimizing based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, and determines a target construction scheme, including:
and screening and optimizing according to a win-win or lose-loss GA algorithm or a PSO algorithm based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, and determining a target construction scheme so as to carry out power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
The power system planning system 300 taking into account the carbon emission constraint according to the embodiment of the present invention corresponds to the power system planning method 100 taking into account the carbon emission constraint according to another embodiment of the present invention, and will not be described here again.
The invention has been described with reference to a few embodiments. However, as is well known to those skilled in the art, other embodiments than the above disclosed are equally possible within the scope of the invention.
In general, all terms used in the present invention are to be interpreted according to their ordinary meaning in the technical field, unless explicitly defined otherwise therein. All references to "a/an/the [ means, component, etc. ]" are to be interpreted openly as referring to at least one instance of said means, component, etc., unless explicitly stated otherwise. The steps of any method disclosed herein do not have to be performed in the exact order disclosed, unless explicitly stated.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical aspects of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, it should be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the specific embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, and any modifications and equivalents are intended to be included within the scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method of planning an electrical power system taking into account carbon emission constraints, the method comprising:
constructing an optimization objective function by taking the minimum period cost of a newly-built project in a planning period as a target;
determining constraint conditions required to meet low-carbon operation of the power system;
acquiring a plurality of power supply and power grid construction schemes, analyzing each scheme based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions, and determining the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient electric quantity corresponding to each construction scheme;
performing scheme evaluation based on the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient power quantity corresponding to each construction scheme, and determining an alternative construction scheme;
and screening and optimizing the alternative construction scheme until convergence is achieved, and determining a target construction scheme so as to conduct power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the constructing an optimization objective function with the goal of minimizing the periodic cost of new projects during the planning period comprises:
wherein F is a target value; g is the number of newly built projects; t is the number of cycles;is->The new project is at->Investment cost of each cycle; />Is->The new project is at- >Fixed operation and maintenance costs for each cycle; />Is the firstThe personal power plant is at%>Fuel costs for each cycle; />Is->The interconnection line is at the->The transmission cost of each period is the product of the transmission electric quantity and the electricity charge; n (N) EX The number of tie lines; />Is the number of existing items; n (N) ZN Is the number of regions;is->The individual region is at->Load loss fee for each cycle; />Is->The individual region is at->Carbon trapping and sealing cost of each period; r is the discount rate; />Is the fund recovery rate; />Is a first proportional coefficient; />Is a second scaling factor; />Is->The capacity of the individual new projects; />Is->Price of each new project; />Is->Engineering life of the new project.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the constraint comprises: the method comprises the following steps of electric power and electric quantity balance constraint, power generation technical characteristic constraint of various power supplies, tie line transmission constraint, natural resource constraint of new energy construction, annual power supply capacity constraint, investment sum constraint in each period, new energy utilization constraint and carbon emission constraint.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the analyzing each of the scenarios based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, determining the power deficit capacity and the power deficit for each of the construction scenarios, comprises:
For any scheme, determining planning scheme data based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions and combining current situation data, and performing power overhaul arrangement based on the planning scheme data;
for any scheme, starting up arrangement is carried out on various units according to an electric power balance rule, the spare capacity of the power support of the cross-region is determined, and the starting and stopping plan of the coal motor unit is determined;
for any scheme, carrying out output arrangement of various units per hour in one period, determining new energy and hydropower utilization and electricity discarding arrangement, and determining cross-region tie line arrangement;
and calculating annual carbon emission according to the power overhaul arrangement, the coal motor group start-stop plan and the cross-region tie arrangement corresponding to each scheme, and determining the electric power shortage capacity and the electric quantity shortage corresponding to each construction scheme.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the selecting and optimizing based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, determining a target construction scheme, comprises:
and screening and optimizing according to a win-win or lose-loss GA algorithm or a PSO algorithm based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, and determining a target construction scheme so as to carry out power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
6. An electrical power system planning system that accounts for carbon emission constraints, the system comprising:
the objective function construction unit is used for constructing an optimized objective function by taking the minimum period cost of a newly-built project in the planning period as a target;
the constraint condition determining unit is used for determining constraint conditions required to meet low-carbon operation of the power system;
the scheme analysis unit is used for acquiring a plurality of power supply and power grid construction schemes, analyzing each scheme based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, and determining the insufficient power capacity and the insufficient electric quantity corresponding to each construction scheme;
an alternative construction scheme determining unit for performing scheme evaluation based on the electric power shortage capacity and the electric quantity shortage corresponding to each construction scheme, and determining an alternative construction scheme;
and the target construction scheme determining unit is used for screening and optimizing based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, determining a target construction scheme and planning the power system based on the target construction scheme.
7. The system according to claim 6, wherein the objective function construction unit constructs an optimized objective function with a goal of minimizing a periodical cost of a newly created project during the planning period, comprising:
Wherein F is a target value; g is the number of newly built projects; t is the number of cycles; />Is->The new project is at->Investment cost of each cycle; />Is->The new project is at->Fixed operation and maintenance costs for each cycle; />Is->The personal power plant is at%>Fuel costs for each cycle; />Is->The interconnection line is at the->The transmission cost of each period is the product of the transmission electric quantity and the electricity charge; n (N) EX The number of tie lines; />Is the number of existing items; n (N) ZN Is the number of regions; />Is->The individual region is at->Load loss fee for each cycle; />Is->The individual region is at->Carbon trapping and sealing cost of each period; r is the discount rate; />Is the fund recovery rate; />Is a first proportional coefficient; />Is a second scaling factor; />Is->The capacity of the individual new projects; />Is->Price of each new project; />Is->Engineering life of the new project.
8. The system of claim 6, wherein the constraint comprises: the method comprises the following steps of electric power and electric quantity balance constraint, power generation technical characteristic constraint of various power supplies, tie line transmission constraint, natural resource constraint of new energy construction, annual power supply capacity constraint, investment sum constraint in each period, new energy utilization constraint and carbon emission constraint.
9. The system according to claim 6, wherein the scenario analysis unit analyzes each scenario based on the optimization objective function and the constraint condition, and determines the power shortage capacity and the power shortage amount corresponding to each construction scenario, including:
for any scheme, combining the current situation data and planning scheme data to carry out power overhaul arrangement;
for any scheme, determining planning scheme data based on the optimization objective function and constraint conditions and combining current situation data, and performing power overhaul arrangement based on the planning scheme data;
for any scheme, starting up arrangement is carried out on various units according to an electric power balance rule, the spare capacity of the power support of the cross-region is determined, and the starting and stopping plan of the coal motor unit is determined;
for any scheme, carrying out output arrangement of various units per hour in one period, determining new energy and hydropower utilization and electricity discarding arrangement, and determining cross-region tie line arrangement;
and calculating annual carbon emission according to the power overhaul arrangement, the coal motor group start-stop plan and the cross-region tie arrangement corresponding to each scheme, and determining the electric power shortage capacity and the electric quantity shortage corresponding to each construction scheme.
10. The system according to claim 6, wherein the target construction scheme determining unit performs screening optimization based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, determines a target construction scheme, comprising:
and screening and optimizing according to a win-win or lose-loss GA algorithm or a PSO algorithm based on the alternative construction scheme until convergence, and determining a target construction scheme so as to carry out power system planning based on the target construction scheme.
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