CN109376407A - A kind of Reliability assessment method using weaponry in due order - Google Patents

A kind of Reliability assessment method using weaponry in due order Download PDF

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CN109376407A
CN109376407A CN201811155809.6A CN201811155809A CN109376407A CN 109376407 A CN109376407 A CN 109376407A CN 201811155809 A CN201811155809 A CN 201811155809A CN 109376407 A CN109376407 A CN 109376407A
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reliability
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weaponry
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CN109376407B (en
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程红伟
王岩磊
黄金娥
徐东
张衍
张扬
刘隆波
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92942 Troops Of Pla
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Abstract

The present invention provides a kind of Reliability assessment method for using weaponry in due order, provide the point estimate of reliability, the unilateral confidence lower limit value of reliability, the lower limit value of the two-sided confidence interval of reliability and the calculation method of upper limit value, obtained point estimate, unilateral confidence lower limit value, the lower limit value and upper limit value of two-sided confidence interval, the reliability for using weaponry in due order can be fully assessed, it in due order can not accurate modeling using the reliability of weaponry to solve carrier-based aircraft ejector etc., the problems such as physical significance mismatches, Reliability assessment model complete using weaponry in due order can be established, improve the accuracy of assessment result.

Description

Reliability evaluation method for using weaponry by time
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering of weaponry, and particularly relates to a reliability evaluation method for using weaponry by time.
Background
For the weapon equipment used for the time, the existing solution is to ignore the phenomenon that the fault probability distribution is discretized due to the discreteness of the equipment using process, and the reliability of the weapon equipment used for the time is calculated according to the method based on the exponential distribution assumption given in the standard and literature such as GJB 899A-2009 reliability identification and acceptance test.
An exponential distribution is a continuous probability distribution. Generally, the fault time of electronic products (such as naval computers, naval communication equipment and the like) and large complex repairable equipment (such as power systems and power systems of ships and warships) which work continuously obeys exponential distribution, and the fault time can be any time (such as 101.032 hours, 1000.43 hours and the like) on the cumulative work time axis of the equipment. However, for the weapon equipment used by times, such as a carrier aircraft catapult, a ship cannon and the like, the time scale of the fault occurrence is a positive integer (such as 100 times, 400 times, 10000 times and the like) in terms of times. Therefore, the reliability of using weaponry by time in engineering using an exponential distribution based method has the following three disadvantages: firstly, the method is incomplete theoretically, and index distribution is a continuous variable distribution function which cannot accurately describe discontinuous failure occurrence frequency variables of weapon equipment used for each time; secondly, the physical meanings are not matched, and the probability meanings contained in the index distribution are not matched with the probability events of using the weaponry according to times; thirdly, the calculation result is inaccurate, and due to the fact that theoretical imperfection and mismatching of physical meanings exist, the evaluation result given by the method based on the exponential distribution hypothesis is an approximate result.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a reliability evaluation method for using weaponry by time, which can establish a complete reliability evaluation model for using weaponry by time and improve the accuracy of an evaluation result.
A method for reliability assessment of use-by-use weaponry comprising the steps of:
obtaining point estimation value of reliability
wherein ,probability of failure for the weaponry up to n uses,a maximum likelihood estimate of the probability V of failing for a single use of the weaponry;
obtaining a confidence lower limit value R of reliabilityMono, L(n)：
wherein ,VMono, LA one-sided confidence lower bound for the probability V that a single use of the weaponry will not fail;
obtaining a lower bound value R of a bilateral confidence interval of reliabilityBis, L(n) and the upper limit value RDouble, U(n)：
wherein ,VBis, LEquipping said weapon with a single useLower bound of bilateral confidence intervals of the probability of no fault V, VDouble, UAn upper limit of a bilateral confidence interval for a probability V of single use of the weaponry not to malfunction;
point estimation based on reliabilityConfidence limit value R on one side of reliabilityMono, L(n) and a lower limit value R of a bilateral confidence interval of the reliabilityBis, L(n) and the upper limit value RDouble, U(n) evaluating whether the reliability meets the product reliability development requirement.
Further, a maximum likelihood estimate of the probability V that the weaponry will not fail for a single useThe acquisition mode is as follows:
constructing a maximum likelihood function L (V):
L(V)＝V(N-Z)WZ
wherein N is the total number of effective reliability tests performed by the weapon equipment, Z is the number of failures accumulated in the reliability tests of the weapon equipment for N times, V is the probability that the weapon equipment does not fail in single use, and W is the probability that the weapon equipment fails in single use;
obtaining the derivative L' (V) of the maximum likelihood function L (V):
L′(V)＝V(N-Z-1)(1-V)Z-1[(N-Z)(1-V)-ZV]
let L' (V) be 0, there are:
(N-Z)(1-V)-Z×V＝0
solving the above formula to obtain the maximum likelihood estimated value of the probability V that the weapon equipment is not in failure after single useComprises the following steps:
further, the unilateral confidence lower limit V of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single useMono, LThe acquisition mode is as follows:
assuming the confidence coefficient is gamma, obtaining a unilateral confidence lower limit V based on a binomial distribution confidence lower limit calculation methodMono, LSatisfies the following relation:
wherein ,representing the combination number of k faults which randomly occur in N effective reliability tests;
solving the above formula by adopting a numerical traversal method to obtain a unilateral confidence lower limit V of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single use when the confidence coefficient is gammaMono, L。
Further, the lower limit V of the bilateral confidence interval of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single useBis, LAnd upper limit VDouble, UThe acquisition mode is as follows:
supposing that the confidence coefficient is gamma, obtaining the lower limit V of the bilateral confidence interval based on the binomial distribution confidence interval calculation methodBis, LAnd upper limit VDouble, UThe following relations are satisfied:
wherein ,representing the combination number of k faults which randomly occur in N effective reliability tests;
solving the above formula by adopting a numerical traversal method to obtain the lower limit V of the bilateral confidence interval of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single use when the confidence coefficient is gammaBis, LAnd upper limit VDouble, U。
Has the advantages that:
the invention provides a reliability evaluation method for using weaponry by time, which provides a point estimation value of reliability, a single-side confidence lower limit value of the reliability, a lower limit value and an upper limit value of a double-side confidence interval of the reliability, and the obtained point estimation value, the single-side confidence lower limit value, the lower limit value and the upper limit value of the double-side confidence interval can be used for comprehensively evaluating the reliability of using weaponry by time, thereby solving the problems that the reliability of using weaponry by time such as a carrier-based aircraft catapult cannot be accurately modeled, the physical meanings are not matched and the like, establishing a complete reliability evaluation model for using weaponry by time, and improving the accuracy of an evaluation result.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for reliability assessment of use-by-use weaponry in accordance with the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating the functional relationship between the number of uses of the weaponry provided by the present invention and the reliability.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical solutions better understood by those skilled in the art, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application.
Example one
Referring to fig. 1, it is a flowchart of a reliability evaluation method for using weaponry by time according to the present embodiment. A method for reliability assessment of use-by-use weaponry comprising the steps of:
s1: obtaining point estimation value of reliability
wherein ,probability of failure for the weaponry up to n uses,a maximum likelihood estimate of the probability V of the weaponry failing for a single use.
Further, a maximum likelihood estimate of the probability V that the weaponry will not fail for a single useThe acquisition mode is as follows:
s101: constructing a maximum likelihood function L (V):
L(V)＝V(N-Z)WZ(2)
wherein N is the total number of effective reliability tests performed by the weapon equipment, Z is the number of failures of the weapon equipment accumulated in the N reliability tests, V is the probability that the weapon equipment does not fail in single use, and W is the probability that the weapon equipment fails in single use, wherein W is 1-V.
Number F of tests of the validity of the weapon equipment already carried out for the occurrence of the Z-th failureZA detailed description will be given. Suppose that a certain weapon equipment used by time carries out N effective reliability tests, and Z (Z is less than or equal to N) faults occur in the effective reliability tests. See table 1 for the number of effective reliability tests that have been performed on the weaponry each time a fault occurs.
TABLE 1
Fault of 1 st failure 2 nd failure … Fault of time Z
Number of tests F1 F2 … FZ
wherein ,{F1,F2,…,FZIs less than or equal to N.
According to Table 1, the 1 st to the Z th failure occurrence events are counted as probability events A in sequence1,A2,…,AZThe number of times of the non-failure continuous tests before each failure occurrence can be obtained as shown in table 2.
TABLE 2
Establishing each probability event A based on geometric distribution1,A2,…,AZThe probabilistic model of (1).
Probability event A corresponding to 1 st fault occurrence1The occurrence probability is:
wherein P (·) represents a function for calculating probability event occurrence probability, V is the probability that the weapon equipment single use does not fail, W is the probability that the weapon equipment single use fails, and obviously W ═ 1-V.
Similarly, for the ith (i is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to Z) fault event AiThe occurrence probability is:
if the effective reliability test is cut off after the Z-th fault occurs, FZN. If the reliability test continues after the Z-th fault, i.e. FZ<N, the equipment is tested in a continuous non-fault mode after the Z-th fault occursZNext, the event is denoted as AoThe occurrence probability is:
to this end, the probability events A are obtained1,A2,…,AZThe probabilistic model of (1).
In the case where the validity reliability test is completed after the occurrence of the Z-th failure (F)ZN), the maximum likelihood function is:
wherein ,P(Ai) Probability corresponding to the occurrence of the ith fault event for said weaponry, SiAnd the number of times of the fault-free continuous test before the ith fault occurs.
For the case where the test of validity and reliability continues after the occurrence of the Z-th failure (F)Z<N), the maximum likelihood function is:
wherein ,P(Ao) Continuous fault-free testing N-F for the weapon equipment after Z faultZProbability of degree, FZNumber of effective reliability tests, S, that have been carried out for the weapon equipment for the occurrence of the Z-th failureiAnd the number of times of the fault-free continuous test before the ith fault occurs.
Therefore, whether the reliability test is cut off after the Z-th fault occurs or the test is continued, the maximum likelihood function has the form:
L(V)＝V(N-Z)WZ(8)
s102: obtaining the derivative L' (V) of the maximum likelihood function L (V):
L′(V)＝V(N-Z-1)(1-V)Z-1[(N-Z)(1-V)-ZV](9)
let L' (V) be 0, there are:
(N-Z)(1-V)-Z×V＝0 (10)
it should be noted that the specific process of deriving the maximum likelihood function l (v) is as follows:
in the above formula V(N-Z-1) and (1-V)Z-1Obviously, it is not 0, so that L' (V) ═ 0 is equivalent to:
(N-Z)(1-V)-Z×V＝0 (12)
s103: solving the above formula to obtain the maximum likelihood estimated value of the probability V that the weapon equipment is not in failure after single useComprises the following steps:
s2: obtaining a confidence lower limit value R of reliabilityMono, L(n)：
wherein ,VMono, LA one-sided confidence bound for the probability V that a single use of the weaponry will not fail.
Further, the unilateral confidence lower limit V of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single useMono, LThe acquisition mode is as follows:
s201: assuming the confidence coefficient is gamma, obtaining a unilateral confidence lower limit V based on a binomial distribution confidence lower limit calculation methodMono, LSatisfies the following relation:
wherein ,representing the combination number of k faults which randomly occur in N effective reliability tests;
s202: solving the above formula by adopting a numerical traversal method to obtain a unilateral confidence lower limit V of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single use when the confidence coefficient is gammaMono, L。
S3: obtaining a lower bound value R of a bilateral confidence interval of reliabilityBis, L(n) and the upper limit value RDouble, U(n)：
wherein ,VBis, LLower bound of bilateral confidence interval for probability V of non-failure of single use of said weapon equipment, VDouble, UAn upper limit of a bilateral confidence interval for the probability V that a single use of the weaponry will not fail.
Further, the lower limit V of the bilateral confidence interval of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single useBis, LAnd upper limit VDouble, UThe acquisition mode is as follows:
s301: supposing that the confidence coefficient is gamma, obtaining the lower limit V of the bilateral confidence interval based on the binomial distribution confidence interval calculation methodBis, LAnd upper limit VDouble, UThe following relations are satisfied:
wherein ,representing the combination number of k faults which randomly occur in N effective reliability tests;
s302: solving the above formula by adopting a numerical traversal method to obtain the lower limit V of the bilateral confidence interval of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single use when the confidence coefficient is gammaBis, LAnd upper limit VDouble, U。
S4: point estimation based on reliabilityConfidence limit value R on one side of reliabilityMono, L(n) and a lower limit value R of a bilateral confidence interval of the reliabilityBis, L(n) and the upper limit value RDouble, U(n) evaluating whether the reliability meets the product reliability development requirement.
Example two
Based on the above embodiments, the present embodiment evaluates the reliability of a certain aircraft carrier catapult (example needs, non-real data).
Step one, analyzing and processing reliability test data
①, suppose that a certain aircraft carrier catapult carries out a reliability test N (2000 times), and a fault Z (5 times) occurs in the period (example needs, non-real data).
② Total test times corresponding to 1 st to 5 th failures are shown in Table 3:
TABLE 3
Order of occurrence of faults 1 2 3 4 5
Total number of tests F1＝438 F2＝981 F3＝1415 F4＝1792 F5＝1996
According to the above table, the 1 st to 5 th failure occurrence events are counted as probability event A1,A2,…,A5And calculating the number of times of the fault-free continuous test before each fault occurs, as shown in table 4:
TABLE 4
Step two, establishing a probability model of a fault occurrence event
① assume that the equipment single test task has a probability of no failure of V and a probability of failure of W, which is clearly 1-V.
② probability event A corresponding to the 1 st failure1The occurrence probability is:
probability event A corresponding to 2 nd fault occurrence2The occurrence probability is:
probability event A corresponding to the 3 rd fault occurrence3The occurrence probability is:
probability event A corresponding to 4 th fault occurrence4The occurrence probability is:
probability event A corresponding to the 5 th fault5The occurrence probability is:
continuing to carry out 4 times of fault-free tests after the 5 th fault and corresponding to the probability event AoThe occurrence probability is:
step three, constructing a maximum likelihood function
Step four, solving likelihood function
①, obtaining an equivalent equation (N-Z) (1-V) -Z multiplied by V equal to 0 according to L' (V) equal to 0, and solving the maximum likelihood estimation of the probability V that the catapult does not fail after single use:
② according to the formulaThe lower single-sided confidence limit for the probability of failure of a single use of the ejector is solved (80% confidence). Substituting the test data into the formula to obtain:
solving the equation by using a numerical traversal method to obtain a lower confidence limit V at one side when the confidence is 0.8Mono, LEstimated as:
Vmono, L＝0.99664180 (27)
③ according to the formulaThe double-sided confidence interval for the probability of failure of the ejector for a single use was solved (confidence 80%). Substituting the test data into the formula to obtain:
solving the above equation by a traversal method to obtain a bilateral confidence interval [ V ] when the confidence degree is 80%L,VU]Estimated as:
step five, reliability parameter estimation
① reliability point estimation
The reliability point of the catapult used for n times (n is more than or equal to 1) continuously in the battle task is estimated as (the confidence coefficient is 80%):
reliability point estimation in the range of n value 1,2, …,3000The trend with the number of consecutive uses n is shown in fig. 2. The reliability corresponding to some typical consecutive usage times n is shown in table 5:
TABLE 5
② reliability one-sided confidence floor estimation
The reliability unilateral confidence lower limit of the catapult which is continuously used for n times (n is more than or equal to 1) in the battle task is estimated as (the confidence coefficient is 80%):
in the range of n being 1,2, … and 3000, the reliability single-side confidence lower limit estimation RMono, LThe trend of (n) with the number of consecutive uses n is shown in fig. 2. The reliability for some exemplary consecutive use times n is shown in table 6:
TABLE 6
③ reliability two-sided confidence interval estimation
The reliability bilateral confidence interval of the catapult used for n times (n is more than or equal to 1) continuously in the battle task is estimated as (the confidence coefficient is 80%):
reliability two-sided confidence interval estimation [ R ] within the range of n value 1,2, …,3000Bis, L(n),RDouble, U(n)]The variation trend along with the continuous use times n is shown in fig. 2, the reliability function in fig. 2 is a discrete function of the use times n, and n is a positive integer. The reliability corresponding to some typical consecutive usage times n is shown in table 7:
TABLE 7
As can be seen, in the present embodiment, reliability test data of the weaponry used by time is first analyzed to determine validity of the data, and data such as the cumulative number of tests of weaponry, the total number of failures, and the number of times of failures occurred in each test of weaponry are grasped. Then, a probability model of the occurrence of the using weapons equipment failure event by time is established based on a geometric distribution, i.e., a memoryless probability distribution of discrete random variables having substantially the same characteristics in a discrete random variable space as an exponential distribution in a continuous random variable space. Secondly, establishing a maximum likelihood function based on a geometric distribution model according to the probability event of the fault. And finally, solving the maximum likelihood function to obtain an evaluation result of the reliability of using the weapon equipment by times.
The present invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential attributes thereof, and it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made herein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined in the appended claims.

Claims (4)

1. A method for reliability assessment of use-by-use weaponry, comprising the steps of:
obtaining point estimation value of reliability
wherein ,probability of failure for the weaponry up to n uses,a maximum likelihood estimate of the probability V of failing for a single use of the weaponry;
obtaining a confidence lower limit value R of reliabilityMono, L(n)：
wherein ,VMono, LA one-sided confidence lower bound for the probability V that a single use of the weaponry will not fail;
obtaining a lower bound value R of a bilateral confidence interval of reliabilityBis, L(n) and the upper limit value RDouble, U(n)：
wherein ,VBis, LLower bound of bilateral confidence interval for probability V of non-failure of single use of said weapon equipment, VDouble, UAn upper limit of a bilateral confidence interval for a probability V of single use of the weaponry not to malfunction;
point estimation based on reliabilityConfidence limit value R on one side of reliabilityMono, L(n) and a lower limit value R of a bilateral confidence interval of the reliabilityBis, L(n) and the upper limit value RDouble, U(n) evaluating whether the reliability meets the product reliability development requirement.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the weapon equipment is not used onceMaximum likelihood estimate of probability of failure VThe acquisition mode is as follows:
constructing a maximum likelihood function L (V):
L(V)＝V(N-Z)WZ
wherein N is the total number of effective reliability tests performed by the weapon equipment, Z is the number of failures accumulated in the N effective reliability tests by the weapon equipment, V is the probability that the weapon equipment does not fail in single use, and W is the probability that the weapon equipment fails in single use;
obtaining the derivative L' (V) of the maximum likelihood function L (V):
L′(V)＝V(N-Z-1)(1-V)Z-1[(N-Z)(1-V)-ZV]
let L' (V) be 0, there are:
(N-Z)(1-V)-Z×V＝0
solving the above formula to obtain the maximum likelihood estimated value of the probability V that the weapon equipment is not in failure after single useComprises the following steps:
3. the method of claim 2, wherein the probability V of failure of the weapon at a single use is a single confidence threshold VMono, LThe acquisition mode is as follows:
assuming the confidence coefficient is gamma, obtaining a unilateral confidence lower limit V based on a binomial distribution confidence lower limit calculation methodMono, LSatisfies the following relation:
wherein ,representing the combination number of k faults which randomly occur in N effective reliability tests;
solving the above formula by adopting a numerical traversal method to obtain a unilateral confidence lower limit V of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single use when the confidence coefficient is gammaMono, L。
4. The method of claim 2, wherein the probability V of failure of the weapon at a single use is the lower limit V of the bilateral confidence intervalBis, LAnd upper limit VDouble, UThe acquisition mode is as follows:
supposing that the confidence coefficient is gamma, obtaining the lower limit V of the bilateral confidence interval based on the binomial distribution confidence interval calculation methodBis, LAnd upper limit VDouble, UThe following relations are satisfied:
wherein ,representing the combination number of k faults which randomly occur in N effective reliability tests;
solving the above formula by adopting a numerical traversal method to obtain the lower limit V of the bilateral confidence interval of the probability V that the weapon equipment does not fail in single use when the confidence coefficient is gammaBis, LAnd upper limit VDouble, U。
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CN109948116B (en) * 2019-03-13 2024-01-30 中国人民解放军92942部队 Success-failure type sum-linkage system reliability confidence lower limit calculation method
CN111208364A (en) * 2019-12-17 2020-05-29 中国人民解放军92942部队 Comprehensive stress reliability accelerated test method based on multiple models
CN111208364B (en) * 2019-12-17 2022-05-03 中国人民解放军92942部队 Comprehensive stress reliability accelerated test method based on multiple models

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