CN112884353B - Task reliability evaluation system - Google Patents

Task reliability evaluation system Download PDF

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CN112884353B
CN112884353B CN202110274470.7A CN202110274470A CN112884353B CN 112884353 B CN112884353 B CN 112884353B CN 202110274470 A CN202110274470 A CN 202110274470A CN 112884353 B CN112884353 B CN 112884353B
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CN112884353A (en
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严传续
曹峰
刘振冲
张帅
王丽芸
陈文龙
孟宏斌
王亚男
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Shanghai Cssc Shipbuilding Design Technology National Engineering Research Center Co ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a task reliability evaluation system which comprises a first processing module, a second processing module and a task reliability evaluation module, wherein the first processing module is used for processing to obtain the first task reliability of single-item equipment; the second processing module is used for processing the task duty ratio of the single-product equipment and the task times of executing the task; the third processing module is used for processing the corrected failure task times of the single-item equipment; and the fourth processing module is used for processing the corrected overall task reliability of the ship. The technical scheme of the invention has the beneficial effects that: based on the characteristics of complex composition of a ship integrated control system, maintenance while equipment is used, complex equipment information source, wide coverage range, incomplete information collection and the like, the traditional CMSR method is modified from three aspects of a ship running mode, an equipment use duty ratio, equipment maintainability and the like, so that the reliability level of the equipment in the task execution process can be reflected more truly by task reliability evaluation.

Description

Task reliability evaluation system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ship control, in particular to a task reliability evaluation system.
Background
Because the ship is often in special environments such as high temperature, high humidity, high salt, high sea condition, continuous shaking of a ship platform and the like when the ship executes a maritime task, the reliability of the comprehensive control system of the ship is evaluated and judged by analyzing information such as use, fault, maintenance and the like of the ship-borne equipment, and the method has very important significance for mastering the real-time performance and state of the ship.
In the prior art, the reliability evaluation is generally performed by adopting the test and use information of the whole system or equipment, but the test and use information of the whole system or equipment, particularly the large-scale complex system such as a ship integrated control system, is limited, and samples which can be used for evaluation are few, the reliability confidence of the evaluation result obtained based on the conditions is not high, and the reliability level of the system or equipment cannot be effectively reflected; and the universal reliability evaluation method does not consider the equipment use environment and task conditions, can not truly reflect the quality characteristics of the equipment at different task stages, and the calculation result can not provide scientific and effective basis for the subsequent model development.
Disclosure of Invention
According to the problems in the prior art, a task reliability evaluation system is provided, which aims to evaluate the task reliability of a ship by combining maintainability correction and task duty ratio correction so as to reflect the reliability level of the ship in the task execution process more truly.
The technical scheme specifically comprises the following steps:
a mission reliability evaluation system adapted for use with a vessel having a plurality of mission phases and a plurality of singles: it is characterized by comprising:
the first processing module is used for processing to obtain first task reliability of the single-product equipment;
the second processing module is used for processing to obtain the task duty ratio of the single-product equipment in each task stage and the task times of executing the task;
the third processing module is connected to the second processing module, prestores the product maintenance rate of the single-item equipment in each task stage, and is used for processing the number of times of non-maintainability of the single-item equipment according to the product maintenance rate and the first task reliability to obtain the number of times of non-maintainability of the single-item equipment as the number of failed tasks;
and the fourth processing module is connected to the second processing module and the third processing module and is used for processing according to the task times and the failure task times to obtain the overall task reliability of the ship.
Specifically, the second processing module includes:
the first detection unit is used for detecting and obtaining the running time of the ship at each task stage;
the second detection unit is used for detecting and obtaining the actual task time length of the single-item equipment in each running time length;
the first processing unit is connected to the first detection unit and the second detection unit and used for processing according to the running time and the actual task time to obtain the task duty ratio of the single-product equipment in each task stage;
and the second processing unit is connected to the second detection unit and the first processing unit, prestores single time length for the single-item equipment to execute a single task, and is used for processing according to the actual task time length and the single time length to obtain the task times of the single-item equipment in each task stage.
Specifically, the first processing unit obtains the task duty ratio by processing according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000021
wherein:
D r is the duty cycle of the task;
T E the actual task duration is the actual task duration;
and T is the running time length.
Specifically, the third processing module includes:
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring the performance index of the single-product equipment in each task stage in real time;
the storage unit prestores the product maintenance rate;
the correcting unit is connected to the collecting unit and used for processing according to the performance index and the product maintenance rate to obtain the maintainability of the single-product equipment in each task stage;
the third processing unit is connected to the correcting unit and used for processing according to the maintainability and the first task reliability to obtain a second task reliability of the single-item equipment;
and the counting unit is connected to the third processing unit, pre-stores a task reliability threshold value, and is used for identifying the task with the second task reliability not reaching the task reliability threshold value as unrepairable and counting the number of times of the task which is unrepairable as the number of times of the failed task.
Specifically, the repairability degree is obtained by processing the correction unit by using the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000031
wherein;
m (t) is the maintainability;
and mu (t) is the product maintenance rate of the single-product equipment.
Specifically, the third processing unit obtains the second task reliability by processing according to the following formula:
R m ＝1-(1-M(t))×R 0
wherein;
R m the second task reliability;
m (t) is the maintainability;
R 0 is the first task reliability.
Specifically, the fourth processing module includes:
the fourth processing unit is used for processing according to the task duty ratio, the running time length and the single time length to obtain the equivalent task times of the ship;
the fifth processing unit is used for adding the failure task times of the single-item equipment in each task stage to obtain the equivalent failure task times of the ship;
the sixth processing unit is used for adding the task times of the single-item equipment in each task stage to obtain the total task times of the ship;
and the seventh processing unit is connected to the fourth processing unit, the fifth processing unit and the sixth processing unit, and is configured to process the equivalent task times, the equivalent failure task times and the total task times to obtain the total task reliability.
Specifically, the second processing unit obtains the equivalent task frequency by processing according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000032
wherein:
eta is the task frequency;
t 0 is the single time duration.
Specifically, the sixth processing unit obtains the overall task reliability by processing according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000041
wherein: m is the overall task reliability;
N j the second task reliability of the singleton device in the jth task stage;
k is the total number of the single-item equipment in the ship.
The technical scheme of the invention has the beneficial effects that: based on the characteristics of complex composition of a ship integrated control system, maintenance while equipment is used, complex equipment information source, wide coverage range, incomplete information collection and the like, the traditional CMSR method is modified from three aspects of a ship running mode, an equipment use duty ratio, equipment maintainability and the like, so that the reliability level of the equipment in the task execution process can be reflected more truly by task reliability evaluation.
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Embodiments of the present invention will now be described more fully hereinafter with reference to the accompanying drawings. The drawings are, however, to be regarded as illustrative and explanatory only and not as restrictive of the scope of the invention.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a task reliability evaluation system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a unit diagram of a second processing module according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of a third processing module according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a unit composition diagram of a fourth processing module according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments may be combined with each other without conflict.
The invention is further described with reference to the following drawings and specific examples, which are not intended to be limiting.
The ship integrated control system usually adopts a Combined MML (minimum shift keying) and SR method, the equipment reliability is evaluated by calculating the task reliability, the task reliability evaluation system in the technical scheme is established on the basis of the CMSR method, and the result obtained by the basis CMSR method is corrected, so that the final equipment reliability evaluation is more accurate.
The invention provides a task reliability evaluation system, which is suitable for ships, wherein the ships have a plurality of task stages and a plurality of single-item devices: it is characterized by comprising:
the first processing module 1 is used for processing and obtaining first task reliability of a plurality of single-product devices;
the second processing module 2 is used for processing and obtaining the task duty ratio of the single-product equipment at each task stage and the task times of executing the task;
the third processing module 3 is connected to the second processing module 2, prestores the product maintenance rate of the single-product equipment at each task stage, and is used for processing the number of times of non-maintainability of the single-product equipment obtained according to the product maintenance rate and the first task reliability as the number of times of failed tasks;
and the fourth processing module 4 is connected to the first processing module 1, the second processing module 2 and the third processing module 3, and is used for processing the first task reliability, the task times and the failure task times to obtain the overall task reliability of the ship.
Specifically, the ship comprises three operation modes:
navigation: such as the ferry and return phases; the stages are characterized in that maintenance or even shutdown maintenance is allowed in the midway as long as the stages reach a specified place within a specified time, and systems usually participating in tasks comprise a power system, an electric power system, a communication system, a navigation system, a guarantee system and the like;
standby class: such as cruising, on-site standby and cruise patrol stages; the stage is characterized in that the occurrence of a specific event is taken as the ending criterion of the stage in a certain period of time, and when the specific event occurs, the ship can successfully enter the next stage as long as the ship is in a normal state, namely, the maintenance is allowed in the midway; compared with the navigation system, the system participating in the task is added with a part of special task systems, and the time and the mode of each system participating in the task are slightly different from the navigation system;
task class: other most phases fall into this category, such as the phases of enemy, deployment, attack, evacuation, and defense avoidance; these phases are characterized by not allowing the phases to be interrupted for maintenance. The system participating in the task mainly comprises a task special system, and other systems work in an auxiliary mode.
Specifically, only in two operation modes of navigation and standby, the equipment of the ship has maintainability.
In a preferred embodiment, the second processing module 2 comprises:
the first detection unit 21 is used for detecting and obtaining the running time of the ship at each task stage;
the second detection unit 22 is configured to detect and obtain an actual task duration of the single-item device in each operation duration;
the first processing unit 23 is connected to the first detecting unit 21 and the second detecting unit 22, and is configured to process the operation duration and the actual task duration to obtain a task duty ratio of the single-product device at each task stage;
and the second processing unit 24 is connected to the second detecting unit 22 and the first processing unit 23, prestores the single time length of the single-product device for executing the single task, and is used for processing according to the actual task time length and the single time length to obtain the task times of the single-product device in each task stage.
Specifically, the first processing unit 23 obtains the task duty ratio by processing according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000061
wherein:
D r is the duty cycle of the task;
T E for the actual taskA duration;
and T is the running time length.
Specifically, it is considered that at some stages, such as the communication system and the belonging device of the security system do not operate at full time, and if the evaluation is performed according to the full time operation, the calculation result is lower than the actual level of the reliability of the device.
In a preferred embodiment, the third processing module 3 comprises:
the acquisition unit 31 is used for acquiring the performance index of the single-item equipment in each task stage in real time;
a storage unit 32 in which a product maintenance rate is prestored;
the correcting unit 33 is connected to the acquisition unit 31 and the storage unit 32 and used for processing according to the performance index and the product maintenance rate to obtain the maintainability of the single-product equipment at each task stage;
the third processing unit 34 is connected to the correcting unit 33 and used for processing the maintainability and the first task reliability to obtain a second task reliability of the single-product equipment;
a counting unit 35, connected to the third processing unit 34, pre-storing a task reliability threshold, for identifying the task whose second task reliability does not reach the task reliability threshold as unrepairable, and counting the number of times of the unrepairable task as the number of times of the failed task;
in a preferred embodiment, the correction unit 33 obtains the maintainability using the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000062
wherein;
m (t) is the maintainability;
μ (t) is the product maintenance rate of the equipment.
In a preferred embodiment, the third processing unit 34 obtains the second task reliability according to the following formula:
R m ＝1-(1-M(t))×R 0
wherein;
R m a second task reliability;
m (t) is the maintainability;
R 0 is the first task reliability.
In a preferred embodiment, the fourth processing module 4 comprises:
the fourth processing unit 41 is configured to process the equivalent task times of the ship according to the task duty cycle, the operation duration and the single-time duration;
the fifth processing unit 42 is configured to add the number of failed tasks of the single-item device at each task stage to obtain an equivalent number of failed tasks of the ship;
the sixth processing unit 43 is configured to add the task times of the single-item device at each task stage to obtain a total task time;
and the seventh processing unit 44 is connected to the fourth processing unit 41, the fifth processing unit 42 and the sixth processing unit 43, and is configured to process the equivalent task times, the equivalent failure task times and the total task times to obtain the second task reliability.
In a preferred embodiment, the fourth processing unit 41 obtains the task number by using the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000071
wherein:
eta is the task frequency;
t 0 for a single time duration.
In a preferred embodiment, the fifth processing module 5 obtains the overall task reliability by using the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000072
wherein: m is the overall task reliability;
N j the reliability of a second task of the single-item equipment in the jth task stage;
k is the total number of the single-item equipment in the ship.
Specifically, the comprehensive evaluation model converts the data into exponential data, and the task reliability can be calculated by the following companies:
when z ≠ 0:
Figure BDA0002975817190000081
wherein:
R L the task reliability is;
Figure BDA0002975817190000082
x with degree of freedom 2z +2 and confidence gamma 2 The quantile of the chi-square distribution, in the known GB4086.2 table, x 2 The distribution quantile is x 2 p (v) Wherein p corresponds to confidence γ, v corresponds to 2z + 2;
Figure BDA0002975817190000083
and T is the running time of the ship, T 0 Is the single task duration.
When z is 0:
Figure BDA0002975817190000084
specifically, the ship equipment is divided into two types, namely, life type unit products with the same index and life type unit products with different indexes, and the fourth processing unit 41 selects series connection or parallel connection among the equipment according to the characteristics of the equipment.
Specifically, according to the product life set when the equipment leaves the factory, the equipment with the same product life is divided into the unit products with the same index life, and the equipment with different product lives is divided into the unit products with different index life.
Specifically, if the ship is composed of life-type unit products with the same index in series and the equivalent failure frequency is not 0, the fourth processing unit 41 obtains the equivalent task frequency by processing according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000085
wherein:
n is the equivalent task frequency of the ship;
r 1 equivalent failure task times;
g is the total number of single-product equipment;
η 1 is the total task number, and
Figure BDA0002975817190000086
t is the running time of the ship, T 0 Is a single time length;
gamma is the confidence coefficient;
R L a product reliability confidence lower limit;
and s is n-f, namely the number of successful tasks.
Specifically, the above function definitions are also applicable to the following formulas, and are not described one by one.
If the ship is composed of life type unit products with the same index in series and the equivalent failure frequency is 0, the fourth processing unit 41 obtains the equivalent task frequency by adopting the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000091
specifically, if the ship is formed by connecting unit products with the same index life in parallel and the equivalent failure frequency is not 0, the fourth processing unit 41 obtains the equivalent task frequency by using the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000092
wherein:
Figure BDA0002975817190000093
Figure BDA0002975817190000094
if the ship is formed by connecting life type unit products with the same index in parallel and the equivalent failure frequency is 0, the fourth processing unit 41 obtains the equivalent task frequency by adopting the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000095
specifically, if the ship is composed of unit products with different index life types connected in series, the fourth processing unit 41 obtains the equivalent task frequency by adopting the following formula:
when z is j Not equal to 0, j is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to g or z j ＝0,1≤j≤H；z j Not equal to 0, H +1 is not more than j and not more than l, and η (1) is min η j ≥η(2)＝minη j In time, there are:
Figure BDA0002975817190000096
Figure BDA0002975817190000097
when z is j When j is not less than 0 and not more than 1 and not more than g, the following components are present:
n＝min{η i }；f＝0
when z is j ＝0,1≤j≤H；z j Not equal to 0, when j is more than or equal to H +1 and less than or equal to l and eta (1) < eta (2), the following components are present:
note and eta 2 Z of the same unit product j For z (2), (z (2), η (2)) is compressed
Figure BDA0002975817190000101
The substitutes (z (2), η (2)) are included with other unit product informationAnd (4) calculating a formula.
Specifically, if the ship is formed by connecting unit products with different index life lengths in parallel, the fourth processing unit 41 obtains the equivalent task frequency by adopting the following formula:
Figure BDA0002975817190000102
wherein:
Figure BDA0002975817190000103
Figure BDA0002975817190000104
the specific use method of the task reliability evaluation system in the technical scheme is as follows:
the first processing module 1 obtains the first task reliability of the single-product equipment by using the existing CMSR method, and the second processing module 2 obtains the task duty ratio and the task frequency of the single-product equipment in each task stage by processing according to the running time of the ship in each task stage and the actual task time of the single-product equipment in each task stage.
Furthermore, the third processing module 3 combines the product maintenance rate of the single-product equipment with the first task reliability to process to obtain the maintainability of the single-product equipment in each task stage, and processes to obtain the second task reliability of the single-product equipment according to the maintainability and the first task reliability, and in this step, the maintainability is used to correct the task reliability of the single-product equipment, and the normal use condition of the single-product equipment after maintenance is taken into consideration, so that the finally evaluated task reliability is higher than that of the conventional CMSR method.
Further, the third processing module 3 determines a task corresponding to the second task reliability that does not reach the task reliability threshold as an unrepairable task, that is, a failed task, and counts the number of failed tasks.
Further, the fourth processing module 4 corrects the equivalent task times of the ship obtained in the existing CMSR method according to the task duty ratio; adding the failure task times of all the single-item equipment in all the task stages to obtain the equivalent failure task times of the ship; and adding the task times of all the single-item equipment in all the task stages to obtain the total task time of the ship.
Further, the fourth processing module 4 processes the first task reliability, the equivalent task frequency, the equivalent failure task frequency, and the total task frequency to obtain the total task reliability.
The technical scheme of the invention has the beneficial effects that: based on the characteristics of complex composition of a ship integrated control system, maintenance while equipment is used, complex equipment information source, wide coverage range, incomplete information collection and the like, the traditional CMSR method is modified from three aspects of a ship running mode, an equipment use duty ratio, equipment maintainability and the like, so that the reliability level of the equipment in the task execution process can be reflected more truly by task reliability evaluation.
While the invention has been described with reference to a preferred embodiment, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and detail may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.

Claims (5)

1. A mission reliability evaluation system is suitable for a ship, wherein the ship is provided with a plurality of mission stages and a plurality of single-item devices: it is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the first processing module is used for processing to obtain first task reliability of the single-product equipment;
the second processing module is used for processing and obtaining the task duty ratio of the single-product equipment in each task stage and the task times of executing the task;
the third processing module is connected to the second processing module, prestores the product maintenance rate of the single product equipment in each task stage, and is used for processing the number of times of non-maintainability of the single product equipment after being corrected according to the product maintenance rate and the first task reliability as the number of failed tasks;
the fourth processing module is connected to the first processing module, the second processing module and the third processing module, and is used for processing according to the first task reliability, the task duty ratio, the task times and the failure task times to obtain the corrected overall task reliability of the ship;
the first processing module evaluates the single-item equipment based on a CMSR method to obtain the reliability of the first task;
the second processing module comprises a first processing unit, and the task duty ratio is obtained by processing the first processing unit by adopting the following formula:
Figure FDA0003793727430000011
wherein: d r For the duty cycle, T E The actual task time length is T, and the running time length is T;
the second processing module further comprises a second processing unit, wherein the second processing unit prestores single-time duration of single-time task execution of the single-product equipment and is used for processing the single-product equipment according to the actual task duration and the single-time duration to obtain the task times of the single-product equipment in each task stage;
the third processing module further comprises a counting unit, wherein a task reliability threshold value is prestored in the counting unit, and the counting unit is used for identifying the task with the second task reliability not reaching the task reliability threshold value as unrepairable and counting the number of times of the task which is unrepairable as the number of times of the failed task;
the second task reliability is obtained by processing based on the following formula:
R m ＝1-(1-M(t))×R 0
wherein; r is m For said second mission reliability, M (t) for said repairability, R 0 Is the firstA task reliability;
the maintainability is obtained by processing according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003793727430000021
wherein; m (t) is the maintainability, and mu (t) is the product maintenance rate of the single-product equipment;
in the fourth processing module, the overall task reliability is obtained by processing according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003793727430000022
wherein: m is the overall task reliability;
N j the second task reliability of the singleton device in the jth task stage;
k is the total number of the single-item equipment in the ship.
2. The task reliability evaluation system according to claim 1, wherein the second processing module comprises:
the first detection unit is used for detecting and obtaining the running time of the ship in each task stage;
the second detection unit is used for detecting and obtaining the actual task time length of the single-product equipment in each running time length;
the first processing unit is connected to the first detection unit and the second detection unit, and is configured to process the operation duration and the actual task duration to obtain the task duty cycle of the single-product device in each task stage;
the second processing unit is connected to the second detection unit and the first processing unit.
3. The task reliability evaluation system according to claim 1, wherein the third processing module comprises:
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring the performance index of the single-product equipment in each task stage in real time;
the storage unit prestores the product maintenance rate;
the correcting unit is connected to the acquisition unit and the storage unit and used for processing according to the product maintenance rate to obtain the maintainability of the single-product equipment in each task stage;
the third processing unit is connected to the correcting unit and used for processing according to the maintainability and the first task reliability to obtain a second task reliability of the single-item equipment;
and the statistical unit is connected to the third processing unit.
4. The task reliability evaluation system according to claim 1, wherein the fourth processing module comprises:
the fourth processing unit is used for processing according to the task duty ratio, the running time length and the single time length to obtain the equivalent task times of the ship;
the fifth processing unit is used for adding the number of the failed tasks of the single-item equipment in each task stage to obtain the equivalent number of the failed tasks of the ship;
the sixth processing unit is used for adding the task times of the single-product equipment in each task stage to obtain the total task times of the ship;
and the seventh processing unit is connected to the fourth processing unit, the fifth processing unit and the sixth processing unit, and is configured to process the first task reliability, the equivalent task frequency, the equivalent failure task frequency and the total task frequency to obtain the total task reliability.
5. The task reliability evaluation system according to claim 4, wherein the second processing unit obtains the equivalent task times by processing using the following formula:
Figure FDA0003793727430000031
wherein:
eta is the task frequency;
t 0 is the single time duration.
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