CN109345080A - Natural gas pipeline system supplies method for evaluating reliability and system - Google Patents
Natural gas pipeline system supplies method for evaluating reliability and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of Natural gas pipeline system gas supply method for evaluating reliability and system, the method to include: being calculated by Monte Carlo Analogue Method and obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data；The based model for load duration curve technology of side analysis according to demand, calculates and obtains Natural Gas Demand data；The note gas production task data of gas storage system is obtained according to the difference of the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data and the Natural Gas Demand data；The operating parameter that gas storage system is obtained by water force adopts safety factor according to the note that the operating parameter and the note gas production task data calculate acquisition gas storage system, adopts the air demand data that safety factor obtains pipe-line system according to the note；The evaluation result for obtaining Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability is calculated according to the Natural Gas Demand data and pipe-line system air demand data.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to oil and gas equipment management domain, espespecially a kind of Natural gas pipeline system gas supply method for evaluating reliability and
System.
Background technique
With the fast development of low-carbon economy, fossil energy of the natural gas as clean and effective, demand is in rapid growth
Trend.Natural gas pipeline system is made of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system and its auxiliary facility such as underground natural gas storage tank, is connection
The tie of natural gas resource and Downstream Market, gas supply reliability are directly related to the safe with gas of natural gas user.Natural gas
Pipe-line system gas supply reliability refers to system within task time and rated condition, can satisfy the energy of market for natural gas demand
Power, it is codetermined by the gas supply capacity and the market demand of system.Key to gas supply reliability evaluation is exactly to consider that system supplies
The uncertainty of gas ability and the market demand.System gas supply capacity uncertainty mostlys come from the uncertain of system running state
The dynamic behaviour of property and pipe-line system；And the market demand is influenced by extraneous factor such as temperature, gas price etc., is changed over time
Change.However existing document often ignores the uncertainty of system gas supply capacity and the market demand, often results in gas supply reliability and comments
Valence result and practical grave fault.
Currently, Many researchers attempt to comment Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability using the theoretical of graph theory
Valence.Have main steps that the failure probability for 1) calculating unit (tube length modules and natural gas station) in Natural gas pipeline system；2) it adopts
With monte carlo method, the transfer process of simulation system；3) according to system running state, determine that pipeline constrains, using most
Big flow algorithm, computing system are in the air demand under each state；4) gas supply situation is compared with user demand situation, thus
Complete the evaluation of pipe-line system gas supply reliability.But the program is the gas supply capacity to pipe-line system is uncertain and market
The uncertain consideration of demand is insufficient.
In gas supply capacity calculating, existing scheme is in different operating statuses using maximum-flow algorithm computing system in graph theory
Under air demand.When due to running in pipe-line system, bulk gas is stored in pipeline in the form that pipe is deposited, when shape occurs for system
When state shifts, the air demand of system is a progressive formation.The dynamic behaviour of pipe-line system is had ignored using maximum-flow algorithm, it is right
The processing of air demand is a mutation process.In addition, the auxiliary facility that gas storage is important as pipe-line system, the prior art are not examined
Working characteristics and the note for considering it adopt reliability.In terms of the market demand, the prior art is regarded as a fixed value, has ignored
Market time to time change, monthly, it is daily and per when the characteristics of being different from.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of that present invention to provide a kind of consideration gas supply capacities and the probabilistic Natural gas pipeline system of the market demand
Supply method for evaluating reliability and system.
In order to achieve the above object, Natural gas pipeline system gas supply method for evaluating reliability provided by the present invention specifically includes:
It is calculated by Monte Carlo Analogue Method and obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data；The based model for load duration of side analysis is bent according to demand
Line technology calculates and obtains Natural Gas Demand data；According to the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data and the natural gas need
The difference of data is asked to obtain the note gas production task data of gas storage system；The operation ginseng of gas storage system is obtained by water force
Number adopts safety factor according to the note that the operating parameter and the note gas production task data calculate acquisition gas storage system；According to
The note adopts the air demand data that safety factor obtains pipe-line system；According to the confession of the Natural Gas Demand data and pipe-line system
Tolerance data obtain the evaluation result of Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability.
In an embodiment of the present invention, described calculated by Monte Carlo Analogue Method obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand
Data include: simulating the state migration procedure of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system by Monte Carlo Analogue Method, it is long to obtain natural gas
The status data of defeated pipe-line system；Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system is analyzed in shape according to the characteristic line method of unstable state water force
State turns later gas supply flow, obtains the gas supply flow changing rule of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system；It is long according to the natural gas
The status data of defeated pipe-line system and the gas supply flow changing rule calculate and obtain Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the based model for load duration curve technology of the analysis of side according to demand, calculates and obtains naturally
Gas demand data includes: obtaining the user type and corresponding demand characteristic of target market；It is held by the load that Demand-side is analyzed
Continuous Curve Technique constructs Demand Distribution Function；Natural Gas Demand data are obtained according to the Demand Distribution Function.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the operating parameter that gas storage system is obtained by water force, according to the operation
The note that parameter calculates acquisition gas storage system with the note gas production task data adopts safety factor and includes: being obtained by water force
The operating parameter of each unit in gas storage system；Mechanism based on structural failure and overload failure, establishes the failure pole of each unit
Limit state equation；Using Monte Carlo simulation, the reliability of unit is calculated, obtains the safety factor of each unit；According to
The note that the safety factor of each unit obtains gas storage system adopts safety factor, adopts safety factor according to the note and judges gas storage system
Can system complete scheduled note gas production task and Natural gas pipeline system air demand data.
In an embodiment of the present invention, day is obtained according to the air demand data of the Natural Gas Demand data and pipe-line system
The evaluation result of right feed channel system gas supply reliability includes: being calculated by the following formula acquisition Natural gas pipeline system gas supply can
By the evaluation result of property:
In above formula, Rsystem(j) the gas supply safety factor that iteration j calculates is indicated；T is task time；CiIndicate the
The meet demand situation of i days or hour；N is Monte Carlo simulation number；The gas supply reliability passes through the Natural Gas Demand
Data and the Natural gas pipeline system air demand data, which calculate, to be obtained.
The present invention also provides a kind of Natural gas pipeline systems to supply reliability evaluation system, and the evaluation system includes gas supply
Computing module, demand computing module, gas storage Calculation of Reliability module and evaluation module；The gas supply computing module is for passing through
Monte Carlo Analogue Method, which calculates, obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data；The demand computing module is for side according to demand
The based model for load duration curve technology of analysis calculates and obtains Natural Gas Demand data；The gas storage Calculation of Reliability module is used for root
It is adopted according to the note that the difference of the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data and the Natural Gas Demand data obtains gas storage system
Gas task data；And the operating parameter of gas storage system is obtained by water force, according to the operating parameter and the note
The note that gas production task data calculates acquisition gas storage system adopts safety factor, adopts safety factor according to the note and obtains natural gas tube
Road system air demand data；The evaluation module is used to be supplied according to the Natural Gas Demand data and the Natural gas pipeline system
Tolerance data obtain the evaluation result of Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the gas supply computing module also includes: being simulated by Monte Carlo Analogue Method natural
The state migration procedure of gas long distance pipeline system obtains the status data of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system；According to unstable state waterpower
The characteristic line method analysis Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system of calculating turns later gas supply flow in state, obtains the long defeated pipe of natural gas
The gas supply flow changing rule of road system；Become according to the status data of the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system and the gas supply flow
Law calculates and obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the demand computing module also includes: obtaining the user type of target market and right
The demand characteristic answered；The based model for load duration curve technical construction Demand Distribution Function analyzed by Demand-side；According to the demand point
Cloth function obtains Natural Gas Demand data.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the gas storage Calculation of Reliability module also includes: being stored up by water force
The operating parameter of each unit in air reservoir system；Mechanism based on structural failure and overload failure, establishes the failure limit of each unit
State equation；Using Monte Carlo simulation, the reliability of unit is calculated, obtains the safety factor of each unit；According to each
The note that the safety factor of unit obtains gas storage system adopts safety factor, adopts safety factor according to the note and judges gas storage system
It can complete scheduled note gas production task and Natural gas pipeline system air demand data.
The present invention also provides a kind of computer equipment, including memory, processor and storage on a memory and can located
The computer program run on reason device, the processor realize the above method when executing the computer program.
The present invention also provides a kind of computer readable storage medium, the computer-readable recording medium storage has in execution
State the computer program of method.
Natural gas pipeline system gas supply method for evaluating reliability provided by the present invention and system are more able to reflect actual
The situation of pipe-line system reality can be used for evaluating the gas supply safety of Natural gas pipeline system, identify the influence in pipe-line system
The essential elements and demand weak spot of gas supply, evaluation improve the measure etc. of gas supply reliability.
Detailed description of the invention
The drawings described herein are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention, constitutes part of this application, not
Constitute limitation of the invention.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is that Natural gas pipeline system provided by one embodiment of the invention supplies tactful schematic diagram；
Fig. 2 is the process signal that Natural gas pipeline system provided by one embodiment of the invention supplies method for evaluating reliability
Figure；
Fig. 3 is that Natural gas pipeline system provided by one embodiment of the invention supplies reliability flow chart；
Fig. 4 is Long-distance Transmission Pipeline systematic state transfer schematic diagram provided by one embodiment of the invention；
Boundary condition signal when Fig. 5 is Long-distance Transmission Pipeline systematic state transfer provided by one embodiment of the invention
Figure；
Fig. 6 is that natural gas demand provided by one embodiment of the invention predicts implementation process diagram；
Fig. 7 is the schematic diagram of LDC provided by one embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 8 is that the note of gas storage system provided by one embodiment of the invention adopts reliability calculating flow diagram；
Fig. 9 is the overall procedure that Natural gas pipeline system provided by one embodiment of the invention supplies method for evaluating reliability
Schematic diagram；
Figure 10 is that the structure of the gas supply reliability evaluation system of Natural gas pipeline system provided by one embodiment of the invention is shown
It is intended to；
Specific embodiment
Understand in order to make the object, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiment of the invention clearer, below with reference to embodiment and attached
Figure, is described in further details the present invention.Here, the illustrative embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention,
But it is not as a limitation of the invention.
It please refers to shown in Fig. 1, the principle of Natural gas pipeline system is as shown in Figure 1, wherein number 1 is natural gas supplying party
To expression Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system gives Downstream Market to supply；Number 2 is natural gas flow direction, indicates that gas storage is in
Gas injection state；Number 3 is natural gas flow direction, indicates that gas storage is in gas production state；Number 4 is signal transfer direction, table
Show that extra gas needs to inject gas storage system when long distance pipeline air demand is greater than demand tolerance；Number 5 is transmitted for signal
Direction indicates that when long distance pipeline air demand is less than market demand tolerance, insufficient gas needs are supplemented by gas storage.Based on this
Structure, in order to evaluate Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability, it is necessary first to calculate the confession of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system
The demand of tolerance and target market, and determine the supply and demand difference of every day, meanwhile, consider the operating characteristic of gas storage, works as confession
Tolerance is greater than demand, and extra tolerance is injected in gas storage, and when air demand is less than demand, insufficient tolerance is supplemented by gas storage,
Therefore it needs the note to gas storage system to adopt reliability to evaluate, judges whether gas storage system can complete regulation note gas production
Task；Total tolerance of pipe-line system supply target market is finally obtained, and is based on this from two angles of tolerance and time to pipeline
System gas supply reliability is evaluated.
It for above-mentioned principle and structure, please refers to shown in Fig. 2, Natural gas pipeline system gas supply provided by the present invention is reliable
Property evaluation method specifically include: S101 pass through Monte Carlo Analogue Method calculate obtain Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data；
The S102 based model for load duration curve technology that side is analyzed according to demand, calculates and obtains Natural Gas Demand data；S103 is according to described natural
The difference of gas long distance pipeline air demand data and the Natural Gas Demand data obtains the note gas production task data of gas storage system；
S104 obtains the operating parameter of gas storage system by water force, according to the operating parameter and the note gas production task data
The note for calculating acquisition gas storage system adopts safety factor, adopts safety factor according to the note and obtains Natural gas pipeline system air demand
Data；S105 obtains Natural gas pipeline system according to the Natural Gas Demand data and Natural gas pipeline system air demand data and supplies
The evaluation result of gas reliability.
In an embodiment of the present invention, above-mentioned steps S101 specifically includes: simulating natural gas by Monte Carlo Analogue Method
The state migration procedure of long distance pipeline system obtains the status data of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system；According to unstable state potamometer
The characteristic line method analysis Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system of calculation turns later gas supply flow in state, obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline
The gas supply flow changing rule of system；Changed according to the status data of the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system and the gas supply flow
Rule calculates and obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data.In this embodiment, predominantly Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system supplies
Air volume calculation；The operating status of the system of consideration is uncertain, Monte Carlo simulation is used first, to Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system
The state migration procedure of system is described, and considers further that the dynamic behaviour of pipe-line system, using the characteristic curve of unstable state water force
Method analyzes the gas supply flow after systematic state transfer, so that the daily confession of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system be calculated
Tolerance；Specific calculation and formula will illustrate in subsequent embodiment, just no longer be described in detail one by one herein.
In an embodiment of the present invention, above-mentioned steps S102 specifically includes: obtaining the user type and correspondence of target market
Demand characteristic；The based model for load duration curve technical construction Demand Distribution Function analyzed by Demand-side；It is distributed according to the demand
Function obtains Natural Gas Demand data；In the embodiment, predominantly target market gas dissipation；Consider the not true of the market demand
It is qualitative, using the based model for load duration curve technology analyzed based on Demand-side, the Natural Gas Demand of target market is predicted, is calculated
Obtain the daily demand tolerance in target market.
Thereafter the calculated result based on above-mentioned S101 and S102, the supply and demand for obtaining long distance pipeline system and target market are poor
Volume, so that it is determined that the note gas production task of gas storage system.Consider the uncertainty of gas storage operating status, it is reliable using gas storage
Property Method In The Whole-process Analysis, gas storage note is adopted by reliability is calculated, to judge that can gas storage can complete assignment of mission.
Wherein, reliability is adopted about gas storage note to carry out calculating link being above-mentioned steps S104, it is in an embodiment of the present invention, above-mentioned
Step S104 also may include: the operating parameter of each unit in gas storage system is obtained by water force；Based on structural failure and
The mechanism for overloading failure, establishes the failure limit state equation of each unit；Using Monte Carlo simulation, to the reliability of unit into
Row calculates, and obtains the safety factor of each unit；Safety factor is adopted according to the note that the safety factor of each unit obtains gas storage system,
Safety factor, which is adopted, according to the note judges that can gas storage system complete scheduled note gas production task and Natural gas pipeline system supplies
Tolerance data.
Finally, can effectively calculate according to the data that above-mentioned calculating obtains and obtain pipe-line system gas supply reliability evaluation knot
Fruit, specifically, in an embodiment of the present invention, above-mentioned steps S105, which is mainly calculated by the following formula, obtains natural gas line system
The evaluation result of system gas supply reliability:
In above formula, Rsystem(j) the gas supply safety factor that iteration j calculates is indicated；T is task time；CiIndicate the
The meet demand situation of i days or hour；N is that gas supply reliability described in Monte Carlo simulation number passes through the Natural Gas Demand number
According to and the Natural gas pipeline system air demand data calculate obtain.
It is main to obtain total tolerance of target market acquisition using above-mentioned steps in the link, and from tolerance and time two
A angle evaluates gas supply reliability；Specific formula for calculation is as follows, to certain Monte Carlo simulation:
In above formula: Rsystem(j) the gas supply reliability that iteration j calculates is indicated, T is task time, day；CiIndicate i-th
The meet demand situation of it or hour, when being based on time angle,When being based on tolerance angleXiFor i-th day or hour system air demand, Nm3；DiFor i-th day or hour natural gas demand.
Based on n times Monte Carlo simulation, the average gas supply reliability of system can be calculated with following formula:
The relationship between above steps and Natural gas pipeline system provided by the present invention gas supply are reliable for ease of understanding
Property evaluation overall flow, can be with further reference to shown in Fig. 3；, below will be in real work in conjunction with Fig. 3, the implementation of each step
For mode, the various embodiments described above are described further, relevant technical staff in the field is when it is found that following embodiment is only just
In understanding concrete scheme provided by the present invention, any restriction is not done to it.
The Appraising subject of Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability can be divided into four steps, i.e. Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system
Air demand calculating, the prediction of target market demand, gas storage note adopt the evaluation of reliability calculating and pipe-line system gas supply reliability.
1, this link is calculated about long distance pipeline system air demand, it is therefore an objective to calculate Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system task
To the tolerance of the market supply in time.The state migration procedure of system is simulated using monte carlo method first, specifically
Embodiment is as follows:
System running state be by system unit state codetermine, by unit in system it is stateful can
It can combine and be ranked up the state of system to be numbered.Specifically, k is enabled to indicate the operating status of system, t indicates transfer hair
At the time of raw.Consider general transfer process: system is transferred to state k=m in moment t ', then decision systems are under moment t generation
The primary probability transition kernel for shifting and entering state k=n is:
K (t, k=n | t ', k=m)=T (t | t ', k=m) C (k=n | t, k=m) (3)
Wherein, T (t | t ', k=m) is that given system once shifts in the generation of moment t ' and enters state k=m condition
Under, the conditional probability density shifted next time occurs between t and t+dt for system, and T (t | t ', k=m) dt is its conditional probability；C(k
=n | k=m, t) be given system original state be k=m, system enters state k=n under moment t generating state jump condition
Conditional probability (as shown in Figure 4).
For Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system, the present invention mainly uses timing monte carlo method to systematic state transfer mistake
The uncertainty of Cheng Jinhang simulation, system running state is considered in the method.Physical simulation process is general based on condition
Rate density T (t | t ', k=m) is sampled the time t of lower next state transfer, is further according to conditional probability C (k=n | k=m, t) sampling
System transfering state.This sampling process is repeated, until system reaches task time.According to analog result, system can be obtained to exist
There is all possible operating status number in task time, at the time of each state occurs and each state duration.
Again using unstable state water force characteristic line method combine corresponding boundary condition to systematic state transfer after
Gas supply flow is analyzed, and determines system gas supply flow changing rule；Characteristic strips equation are as follows:
Long-distance Transmission Pipeline main function of system is supplied to Downstream Market, maximum when the transfer of system generating state
Limit safeguards system normally supply be operation regulation cardinal principle.Therefore it needs to introduce in characteristic strips equation corresponding
Boundary condition, with the maximum air demand of safeguards system:
For each gas supply point, it is task air demand that holding system, which respectively supplies the throughput rate at a little, first, supplies point
Pressure gradually decrease, this stage is referred to as the flow control stage；When pressure reduction to the minimum pressure (P of settingset) when, it keeps
Gas supply point pressure is the minimum pressure (P of settingset), air demand reduces, until system reaches stable gas supply under the operating status
It measures or new operating status transfer occurs, this stage is referred to as the pressure control stage, as shown in Figure 5.Finally by unstable state potamometer
Calculation process and systematic state transfer simulation combine, and obtain system in the air demand at each moment.
2, the natural gas demand about target market is predicted in this link, and main purpose is that prediction target market is in office
It is engaged in the time, natural gas tolerance needed for each moment.It specifically please refers to shown in Fig. 6, it is first determined the user of target market
The demand characteristic of type and each user type；Then determine that each user type accounts for total demand specific gravity and each use
The corresponding uneven factor of monthly consumption of family type；Uneven factor of monthly consumption based on different user types, the moon for calculating aggregate demand are uneven
Coefficient, and periods of low demand, the different demands section such as equal demand phase and high demand phase will be divided into task time based on this.Using negative
The Natural Gas Demand in different demands section is described in the distribution of lotus demand curve, constructs Demand Distribution Function, and choose common
Probability-distribution function is described.By random number of sampling from common probability-distribution function, the market demand is carried out pre-
It surveys.Market for natural gas demand load duration curve is the song obtained after rearranging timing load curve according to size order
Line.It is as shown in Figure 7 that it contains bulk informations, the schematic diagrames such as peak load, minimum load, load cumulative duration；Fig. 7
In, abscissa indicates that level of market demand d, ordinate indicate duration t.dminAnd dmaxRespectively indicate the minimum of task time
Desired level and greatest requirements are horizontal.Arbitrary point (d, t) expression demand continues more than or equal to the horizontal d of particular demands in curve
Time t.Therefore, it can define the probability P (d) that demand is less than or equal to d:
Probability function P (d) meets following property:
When due to market demand D being a continuous random variable, Prob [D≤d]=Prob [D < d], therefore probability letter
Number P (d) is nondecreasing function and fight continuity；And 0≤P (d)≤1,
It, can be by certain common probability-distribution functions such as since probability function P (d) meets three properties of distribution function
P (d) is described in transversal normal distribution, truncation Weibull distribution etc., and by random number of sampling from probability distribution, to city
Field demand is predicted.
3, it is adopted in reliability calculating link about gas storage note, then by the calculating or prediction of above-mentioned link, obtains growing defeated
The daily demand of the daily air demand of pipe-line system and target market, calculates supply and demand difference with this, determines that the note gas production of gas storage is appointed
Business adopts reliability thereafter by calculating gas storage note and then judges that can gas storage system complete given note gas production task.Storage
Air reservoir note, which adopts reliability calculating process, to carry out water force to gas storage first for given note gas production task to be stored up
The operating parameter of each unit in air reservoir system；Then, the mechanism based on structural failure and overload failure, establishes the failure of each unit
Limit state equation calculates the reliability of unit using Monte Carlo simulation；Again and, using system reliability theory,
To gas storage subsystem such as injection-production well system, the reliability of ground system is assessed, to obtain gas storage system dependability.
According to the evaluation result of gas storage system dependability, it can be used for judging that can gas storage complete given note gas production task.Its
Embodiment signal is as shown in Figure 8；Reliability results are adopted according to the note of gas storage system, it can be determined that can system be completed
Defined note gas production task, to obtain the air demand data of Natural gas pipeline system.
4, it finally carries out pipe-line system and supplies reliability evaluation link, Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system supplies in the link
Amount calculating, market demand prediction and gas storage note, which adopt reliability calculating all, to be carried out in the same Monte Carlo simulation
's.For Monte Carlo simulation each time, the demand for the air demand and target market that computing system is total is needed, thus to system
Gas supply reliability is evaluated, and specific judgement schematics are as follows:
In formula: Rsystem(j) the gas supply reliability that iteration j calculates is indicated, T is task time, day；CiIt indicates i-th day
Or the meet demand situation of hour, when being based on time angle,When being based on tolerance angleXiFor i-th day or hour system air demand, Nm3；DiFor i-th day or hour natural gas demand.
Based on n times Monte Carlo simulation, the average gas supply reliability of system can be calculated with following formula:
Its total embodiment figure is as shown in Figure 9.
It is please referred to shown in Figure 10 again, the present invention also provides a kind of Natural gas pipeline systems to supply reliability evaluation system, institute
Stating evaluation system includes gas supply computing module, demand computing module, gas storage Calculation of Reliability module and evaluation module；The confession
Gas computing module, which is used to calculate by Monte Carlo Analogue Method, obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data；The demand calculates
Based model for load duration curve technology of the module for the analysis of side according to demand, calculates and obtains Natural Gas Demand data；The gas storage can
It is used to be obtained according to the difference of the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data and the Natural Gas Demand data by property computing module
Obtain the note gas production task data of gas storage system；And the operating parameter of gas storage system is obtained by water force, according to institute
It states the note that operating parameter and the note gas production task data calculate acquisition gas storage system and adopts safety factor, being adopted according to the note can
The air demand data of pipe-line system are obtained by coefficient；The evaluation module is used for according to the Natural Gas Demand data and pipeline system
Air demand data of uniting calculate the evaluation result for obtaining Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability.
In the above-described embodiments, the gas supply computing module also includes: it is long to simulate natural gas by Monte Carlo Analogue Method
The state migration procedure of defeated pipe-line system obtains the status data of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system；According to unstable state water force
Characteristic line method analysis Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system turn later gas supply flow in state, obtain Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system
The gas supply flow changing rule of system；According to the status data of the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system and gas supply flow variation rule
Rule calculates and obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data.
In the above-described embodiments, the demand computing module also includes: obtaining the user type of target market and corresponding
Demand characteristic；The based model for load duration curve technical construction Demand Distribution Function analyzed by Demand-side；Letter is distributed according to the demand
Number obtains Natural Gas Demand data.
In the above-described embodiments, the gas storage Calculation of Reliability module also includes: obtaining gas storage by water force
The operating parameter of each unit in system；Mechanism based on structural failure and overload failure, establishes the failure limit state of each unit
Equation；Using Monte Carlo simulation, the reliability of unit is calculated, obtains the safety factor of each unit；According to each unit
Safety factor obtain the note of gas storage system and adopt safety factor, adopt safety factor according to the note and judge that can gas storage system
Complete scheduled note gas production task and Natural gas pipeline system air demand data.
The present invention also provides a kind of computer equipment, including memory, processor and storage on a memory and can located
The computer program run on reason device, the processor realize the above method when executing the computer program.
The present invention also provides a kind of computer readable storage medium, the computer-readable recording medium storage has in execution
State the computer program of method.
Natural gas pipeline system gas supply method for evaluating reliability provided by the present invention and system are more able to reflect actual
The situation of pipe-line system reality can be used for evaluating the gas supply safety of Natural gas pipeline system, identify the influence in pipe-line system
The essential elements and demand weak spot of gas supply, evaluation improve the measure etc. of gas supply reliability.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, the embodiment of the present invention can provide as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or reality combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the present invention
Apply the form of example.Moreover, it wherein includes the computer of computer usable program code that the present invention, which can be used in one or more,
The computer program implemented in usable storage medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.) produces
The form of product.
The present invention be referring to according to the method for the embodiment of the present invention, the process of equipment (system) and computer program product
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that every one stream in flowchart and/or the block diagram can be realized by computer program instructions
The combination of process and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.It can provide these computer programs
Instruct the processor of general purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices to produce
A raw machine, so that being generated by the instruction that computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices execute for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, is able to guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works, so that it includes referring to that instruction stored in the computer readable memory, which generates,
Enable the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one box of one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that counting
Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, thus in computer or
The instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
Particular embodiments described above has carried out further in detail the purpose of the present invention, technical scheme and beneficial effects
Describe in detail it is bright, it should be understood that the above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, the guarantor being not intended to limit the present invention
Range is protected, all within the spirits and principles of the present invention, any modification, equivalent substitution, improvement and etc. done should be included in this
Within the protection scope of invention.
Claims (11)
1. a kind of Natural gas pipeline system supplies method for evaluating reliability, which is characterized in that the method includes:
It is calculated by Monte Carlo Analogue Method and obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data；
The based model for load duration curve technology of side analysis according to demand, calculates and obtains Natural Gas Demand data；
Gas storage system is obtained according to the difference of the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data and the Natural Gas Demand data
Note gas production task data；
The operating parameter that gas storage system is obtained by water force, according to the operating parameter and the note gas production task data
The note for calculating acquisition gas storage system adopts safety factor, adopts the air demand number that safety factor obtains pipe-line system according to the note
According to；
Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability is obtained according to the Natural Gas Demand data and pipe-line system air demand data
Evaluation result.
2. Natural gas pipeline system according to claim 1 supplies method for evaluating reliability, which is characterized in that described to pass through
Monte Carlo Analogue Method calculates acquisition Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data: being simulated by Monte Carlo Analogue Method natural
The state migration procedure of gas long distance pipeline system obtains the status data of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system；According to unstable state waterpower
The characteristic line method analysis Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system of calculating turns later gas supply flow in state, obtains the long defeated pipe of natural gas
The gas supply flow changing rule of road system；Become according to the status data of the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system and the gas supply flow
Law calculates and obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data.
3. Natural gas pipeline system according to claim 1 supplies method for evaluating reliability, which is characterized in that the basis
The based model for load duration curve technology of Demand-side analysis, calculating acquisition Natural Gas Demand data includes: obtaining the user class of target market
Type and corresponding demand characteristic；The based model for load duration curve technical construction Demand Distribution Function analyzed by Demand-side；According to described
Demand Distribution Function obtains Natural Gas Demand data.
4. Natural gas pipeline system according to claim 1 supplies method for evaluating reliability, which is characterized in that pass through waterpower
The operating parameter for obtaining gas storage system is calculated, is calculated according to the operating parameter and the note gas production task data and obtains gas storage
The note of library system adopts safety factor:
The operating parameter of each unit in gas storage system is obtained by water force；
Mechanism based on structural failure and overload failure, establishes the failure limit state equation of each unit；
Using Monte Carlo simulation, the reliability of unit is calculated, obtains the safety factor of each unit；
Safety factor is adopted according to the note that the safety factor of each unit obtains gas storage system, safety factor judgement is adopted according to the note
Can gas storage system complete scheduled note gas production task and Natural gas pipeline system air demand data.
5. Natural gas pipeline system according to claim 1 supplies method for evaluating reliability, which is characterized in that according to described
Natural Gas Demand data and the Natural gas pipeline system air demand data calculate and obtain Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability
Evaluation result include: be calculated by the following formula obtain Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability evaluation result:
In above formula, Rsystem(j) the gas supply reliability that iteration j calculates is indicated；T is task time；CiIt indicates i-th day or small
When meet demand situation；N is Monte Carlo simulation number；The gas supply reliability passes through the Natural Gas Demand data and institute
It states Natural gas pipeline system air demand data and calculates acquisition.
6. a kind of Natural gas pipeline system supplies reliability evaluation system, which is characterized in that the evaluation system includes gas supply meter
Calculate module, demand computing module, gas storage Calculation of Reliability module and evaluation module；
The gas supply computing module, which is used to calculate by Monte Carlo Analogue Method, obtains Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data；
Based model for load duration curve technology of the demand computing module for the analysis of side according to demand, calculates and obtains Natural Gas Demand number
According to；
The gas storage Calculation of Reliability module is used for according to the Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand data and the natural gas
The difference of demand data obtains the note gas production task data of gas storage system；And gas storage system is obtained by water force
Operating parameter adopts reliable system according to the note that the operating parameter and the note gas production task data calculate acquisition gas storage system
Number adopts safety factor according to the note and obtains Natural gas pipeline system air demand data；
The evaluation module is used to be calculated according to the Natural Gas Demand data and the Natural gas pipeline system air demand data
Obtain the evaluation result of Natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability.
7. Natural gas pipeline system according to claim 6 supplies reliability evaluation system, which is characterized in that the gas supply
Computing module also includes: simulating the state migration procedure of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system by Monte Carlo Analogue Method, obtains day
The status data of right gas long distance pipeline system；Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system is analyzed according to the characteristic line method of unstable state water force
It unites and turns later gas supply flow in state, obtain the gas supply flow changing rule of Long-distance Transmission Pipeline system；According to the day
The status data and the gas supply flow changing rule of right gas long distance pipeline system, calculate and obtain Long-distance Transmission Pipeline air demand
Data.
8. Natural gas pipeline system according to claim 6 supplies reliability evaluation system, which is characterized in that the demand
Computing module also includes: obtaining the user type and corresponding demand characteristic of target market；It is held by the load that Demand-side is analyzed
Continuous Curve Technique constructs Demand Distribution Function；Natural Gas Demand data are obtained according to the Demand Distribution Function.
9. Natural gas pipeline system according to claim 6 supplies reliability evaluation system, which is characterized in that the gas storage
Library Calculation of Reliability module also includes:
The operating parameter of each unit in gas storage system is obtained by water force；
Mechanism based on structural failure and overload failure, establishes the failure limit state equation of each unit；
Using Monte Carlo simulation, the reliability of unit is calculated, obtains the safety factor of each unit；
Safety factor is adopted according to the note that the safety factor of each unit obtains gas storage system, safety factor judgement is adopted according to the note
Can gas storage system complete scheduled note gas production task and Natural gas pipeline system air demand data.
10. a kind of computer equipment including memory, processor and stores the meter that can be run on a memory and on a processor
Calculation machine program, which is characterized in that the processor realizes any side of claim 1 to 5 when executing the computer program
Method.
11. a kind of computer readable storage medium, which is characterized in that the computer-readable recording medium storage has perform claim
It is required that the computer program of 1 to 5 any the method.
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| CN113222230A (en) * | 2021-04-29 | 2021-08-06 | 中国石油大学(北京) | Flow distribution method and device of natural gas pipe network under accident condition |
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