CN109190254B - Tidal level change forecasting method based on real-time measurement data - Google Patents
Tidal level change forecasting method based on real-time measurement data Download PDFInfo
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- CN109190254B CN109190254B CN201811031628.2A CN201811031628A CN109190254B CN 109190254 B CN109190254 B CN 109190254B CN 201811031628 A CN201811031628 A CN 201811031628A CN 109190254 B CN109190254 B CN 109190254B
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Abstract
The invention discloses a tide level change forecasting method based on real-time measurement data, which relates to the field of ships and ocean engineering and comprises the following steps: 1. real-time measurement is carried out on sea state information of a designated sea area in advance, and a series of tide level data D1 of a certain period T1 are obtained; 2. obtaining the average tidal level value TL1 of the period T1; 3. according to the tide level data D2 of the same period T1 obtained by carrying out weather forecast on the local sea area by the satellite measured data, obtaining a tide level average TL2 of the period T1; 4. the average values TL1 and TL2 of the tide level in the same time period are subjected to difference to obtain A; 5. and (3) in the time after the period T1, the total change A of the tide level is carried out by the satellite weather forecast, so that the tide level change trend of the appointed sea area is obtained, and the tide level change of the next period T2 of the appointed sea area is forecast. The tide level forecasting method can be applied to floating installation, and the floating installation can be carried out more safely and effectively by forecasting the tide level change in a period of time.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of ships and ocean engineering, in particular to a tide level change forecasting method based on real-time measurement data in the floating installation process of a large ocean platform.
Background
With the current rising of the offshore oil industry, various offshore platforms are developing to large and comprehensive directions, and the overall quality of platform structures is also increased, so that the difficulty of platform installation is increased. The installation of platform superstructures has now become a major hotspot for oceanographic engineering research.
In the floating installation process, the barge needs to carry the upper platform to enter between the jackets in an acceptable range, a certain gap exists between the upper platform and the jackets at the moment, and then the ship body and the upper platform move downwards by injecting ballast water into the barge, so that the butt joint of the upper platform and the jackets is realized. Variations in tide level can seriously affect the accuracy and safety of docking at this time. If the tide level is always in an ascending process, the descending butt joint of the platform is difficult to realize; if the tide level is in a descending process all the time, the tide level descends too fast, the butting speed is difficult to control, and the jacket and the platform are damaged due to collision; if there is always a large change in the tide level, there is also a loss of material and personnel, which is undoubtedly enormous. This highlights the importance of determining the trend of the tidal level relative to the jacket. The existing weather forecast technology only can predict absolute values of the change of the sea level of the local sea area, but cannot provide specific values of the change of the sea level relative to the jacket, which brings great risks to floating installation.
Therefore, those skilled in the art have been working to develop a method for forecasting the change of the sea level based on real-time measurement data, which can forecast the change of the sea level in the next period of time according to the measured sea level data, and can be applied to the floating installation process to ensure the safe and effective floating installation.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above-mentioned drawbacks of the prior art, the present invention aims to solve the technical problem that a specific value of the change of the tide level relative to the jacket cannot be provided only by means of satellite weather forecast.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a method for forecasting a change in a tide level based on real-time measurement data, comprising the steps of:
s1, opening a ship provided with a tide level sensor to a designated sea area, and measuring sea state information of the designated sea area in real time to obtain a series of tide level data D1 of a certain period T1;
s2, according to the acquired tide level data D1 in the period T1, solving the tide level average value TL1 in the period T1;
s3, according to the tide level data D2 of the same period T1 obtained by weather forecast of the satellite measured data on the local sea area, obtaining a tide level average TL2 of the period T1;
s4, making differences between the average tidal level TL1 and TL2 in the same time period to obtain A;
s5, in the time after the period T1, the satellite weather forecast is carried out on the overall change A of the tide level, so that the tide level change trend of the appointed sea area is obtained, and the tide level change of the next period T2 of the appointed sea area is forecasted.
Further, the period T1 in the step S1 is not less than 3 hours.
Further, the next period T2 in the step S5 is not more than half of T1.
Further, the forecasting method is applied to floating installation, and the tide level data D1 are tide level data of a relative jacket.
Further, in the step S1, the ship is a barge carrying a platform, and the designated sea area is a floating installation sea area.
Further, in the step S1, according to the predicted data of the sea level change, the installation process of the floating support is analyzed, and the floating support installation is performed in an optimal period of time.
Further, in the steps S2 and S3, the characteristic values of the tide level data D1 and D2 are the average tide level of the period T1.
Further, step S6 is further included, wherein the next period T2 of the tide level is measured, compared with the predicted tide level change, and if the tide level measured value is consistent with or has small difference from the predicted tide level change, the float installation is continued.
Further, in the step S6, if the difference between the measured level and the predicted level is large, the float installation is suspended.
Further, the greater difference means that the level measurement differs from the predicted level change by more than 50cm over 5 consecutive minutes.
The invention provides a tide level change forecasting method based on real-time measurement data, which is simple and effective, can be applied to a floating support installation process, and aims at realizing safe butt joint of an upper platform and a jacket during floating support installation. In the floating installation process, whether the environment conditions suitable for installation are met or not is judged according to the forecast of the relative jacket tide level change, and the safe and effective floating installation is ensured.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for forecasting sea level change based on real-time measurement data according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram showing the forecasting effect of the method for forecasting the change of the tide level based on real-time measurement data according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the preferred embodiments of the present invention refers to the accompanying drawings, which make the technical contents thereof more clear and easy to understand. The invention may be embodied in many different forms and should not be construed as limited to the embodiments set forth herein.
The invention provides a tide level change forecasting method based on combination of real-time measurement data and satellite weather forecast, which comprises the following specific steps:
step 1: after a ship provided with a tide level measuring sensor is opened to a designated sea area, sea state information of the local sea area is measured in real time, and a series of tide level data D1 of a certain period T1 are obtained;
step 2: according to the acquired tide level data D1 in the period T1, solving the tide level average value TL1 in the period T1;
step 3: according to the tide level data D2 of the same period T1 obtained by carrying out weather forecast on the local sea area by the satellite measured data, obtaining a tide level average TL2 of the period T1;
step 4: the average values TL1 and TL2 of the tide level in the same time period are subjected to difference A, namely TL1-TL2 = A;
step 5: and (3) in the time after the period T1 of the satellite weather forecast, the tide level is integrally changed A to obtain a more accurate tide level change trend, so that the tide level change forecast is carried out.
In order to ensure accuracy of the measurement data, the period T1 of measuring the tide level data in real time in step 1 cannot be less than 3 hours, and therefore, to perform the tide level budget, the ship equipped with the tide level measuring sensor arrives at the designated sea area at least 3 hours in advance, the tide level data is measured, the data is recorded, and the tide level change curve is drawn.
The greater the possibility of deviation of the predicted tide level data with the lapse of time, the invention limits the time of the next period T2 to be predicted in step 5, and the time of T2 cannot be more than half of T1, for example, t1=3 hours, and T2 is 1.5 hours at maximum, and if the prediction is to be performed for a longer time, the tide level data measurement needs to be performed in advance.
One of the most important applications of the method for forecasting the change of the tide level is forecasting the change of the tide level relative to the jacket in the floating installation process. In the floating support installation process, the barge carries the upper platform to enter between the jackets, a certain gap exists between the upper platform and the jackets, and then ballast water is injected into the barge to enable the ship body and the upper platform to move downwards, so that the upper platform and the jackets are in butt joint. In the whole process, the operation is carried out in a period of time when the tide level change trend is favorable for the floating installation. The method for forecasting the tide level change based on real-time measurement data in the floating installation process of the large ocean platform comprises the following specific steps of:
step 1: when the barge carrying the platform arrives at the installation sea area, sea state information of the local sea area is measured in real time, and a series of tide level data D1 of the relative jacket in a certain period T1 are obtained.
Step 2: from the acquired T1 period tide level data D1, a tide level average value TL1 of the T1 period is obtained.
Step 3: and obtaining the tide level average value TL2 of the period T1 according to the tide level data D2 of the same period T1 obtained by carrying out weather forecast on the local sea area according to the satellite measured data.
Step 4: the average values TL1 and TL2 of the tide level in the same time period are subjected to difference A.
Step 5: and (3) in the time after the period T1, the total change A of the tide level is carried out by the satellite weather forecast, so that a more accurate tide level change trend of the relative jacket is obtained, and the change of the tide level relative jacket is forecast.
Step 6: and the floating installation is carried out in the tide level change period which is favorable for the floating installation, so that the safe and effective floating installation is ensured.
According to the forecasting method of the invention, the tide level change forecasting curve of the relative jacket is shown in fig. 2, so that the tide level change data of the period T2 is obtained according to the forecasting method by combining the measurement data and the satellite forecasting data.
In other preferred embodiments of the present invention, the real-time measured trend of the sea level is compared with the predicted satellite data, and when the measured trend of the sea level in the period T1 is consistent with the predicted trend of the sea level in the satellite, the prediction accuracy is high, and the sea level prediction can be performed by using the method as the basis of floating installation. If the variation trend is greatly different, the prediction accuracy is reduced, and the method needs to wait until the measured tide level curve for a period of time is consistent with the variation trend of the tide level curve predicted by the satellite, so that the prediction of the tide level variation in the next period T2 can be performed.
And in the next period T2, after the floating installation is started, the tide level data relative to the jacket are still measured in real time, and if the measured data are consistent with the forecast data or have smaller difference, the reliability of the forecast data is high, and the floating installation is continued. If the difference between the measured tide level data and the predicted data is larger, namely the difference between the real-time tide level value and the predicted value in 5 continuous minutes is larger than 50cm, the predicted data is indicated to have larger deviation, and the floating installation is stopped or additional measures are taken according to the floating installation progress and the environmental condition to ensure the safety and the effectiveness of the floating installation process.
The invention provides a tide level change forecasting method based on combination of real-time measurement data and satellite weather forecast, which is simple and effective, and can accurately realize forecasting of the change of a tide level relative to a jacket in a floating installation process, so that whether the environment condition suitable for installation is met or not is judged according to the forecasting of the tide level change of the relative jacket, and the safe and effective floating installation is ensured.
The foregoing describes in detail preferred embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that numerous modifications and variations can be made in accordance with the concepts of the invention without requiring creative effort by one of ordinary skill in the art. Therefore, all technical solutions which can be obtained by logic analysis, reasoning or limited experiments based on the prior art by the person skilled in the art according to the inventive concept shall be within the scope of protection defined by the claims.
Claims (7)
1. A method for forecasting changes in tide level based on real-time measurement data, the method comprising the steps of:
s1, opening a ship provided with a tide level sensor to a designated sea area, and measuring sea state information of the designated sea area in real time to obtain a series of tide level data D1 of a certain period T1; the ship is a barge carrying a platform, and the designated sea area is a floating installation sea area; the tide level data D1 are tide level data of a relative jacket;
s2, according to the acquired tide level data D1 in the period T1, solving the tide level average value TL1 in the period T1;
s3, according to the tide level data D2 of the same period T1 obtained by weather forecast of the satellite measured data on the local sea area, obtaining a tide level average TL2 of the period T1;
s4, making differences between the average tidal level TL1 and TL2 in the same time period to obtain A;
s5, in the time after the period T1, the total change A of the tide level is carried out on the satellite weather forecast, so that the tide level change trend of the relative jacket of the appointed sea area is obtained, and the tide level change of the next period T2 of the appointed sea area is forecast; and analyzing the installation process of the floating support according to the tide level change forecast data, and selecting an optimal period to install the floating support.
2. The method for forecasting sea level change based on real-time measurement data according to claim 1, wherein the period T1 in the step S1 is not less than 3 hours.
3. The method for forecasting sea level change based on real-time measurement data according to claim 1, wherein the next period T2 in step S5 is not more than half of T1.
4. The method for forecasting sea level change based on real-time measurement data according to claim 1, wherein in the steps S2 and S3, the characteristic values of the sea level data D1 and D2 are the average sea level of the period T1.
5. The method for forecasting sea level change based on real-time measurement data according to claim 1, further comprising step S6, measuring sea level of the next period T2, comparing with the forecasted sea level change, and if the sea level measured value is consistent with or has small difference from the forecasted sea level change, continuing floating installation.
6. The method according to claim 5, wherein in step S6, if the difference between the measured level and the predicted level is large, the float installation is suspended.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein said greater difference is greater than 50cm between said measured level and said predicted level change over 5 consecutive minutes.
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| CN201811031628.2A CN109190254B (en) | 2018-09-05 | 2018-09-05 | Tidal level change forecasting method based on real-time measurement data |
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| CN201811031628.2A CN109190254B (en) | 2018-09-05 | 2018-09-05 | Tidal level change forecasting method based on real-time measurement data |
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Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102221389A (en) * | 2011-04-11 | 2011-10-19 | 国家海洋信息中心 | Method for predicting tide-bound water level by combining statistical model and power model |
| CN102963494A (en) * | 2012-11-01 | 2013-03-13 | 中国海洋石油总公司 | Buoyancy mounting method for blocks |
| CN105893329A (en) * | 2016-04-20 | 2016-08-24 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Monthly-scale-based tide level data consistency correction method |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US8768663B2 (en) * | 2010-10-08 | 2014-07-01 | The United States Of America, As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy | Automated method and system for predicting high resolution tidal heights and currents in coastal zones |
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- 2018-09-05 CN CN201811031628.2A patent/CN109190254B/en active Active
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102221389A (en) * | 2011-04-11 | 2011-10-19 | 国家海洋信息中心 | Method for predicting tide-bound water level by combining statistical model and power model |
| CN102963494A (en) * | 2012-11-01 | 2013-03-13 | 中国海洋石油总公司 | Buoyancy mounting method for blocks |
| CN105893329A (en) * | 2016-04-20 | 2016-08-24 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Monthly-scale-based tide level data consistency correction method |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
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| 荔湾3-1组块浮托安装实船监测与数值模拟;吴骁等;《海洋工程》;20160730(第04期);全文 * |
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