CN109165818A - A kind of negative point calculating method for electrical equipment risk assessment - Google Patents
A kind of negative point calculating method for electrical equipment risk assessment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of negative point calculating method for electrical equipment risk assessment, is related to electric data analysis and negative point method.The time series of electrical equipment real data is converted into work sequence relevant to risk class by this method, calculates the negative point of distribution transformer on this basis.Under equal conditions, it is bigger to bear the big transformer fault risk of point.The invention has the advantages that making full use of the data of monitoring center, negative point is calculated with quick and objective algorithm, with the degree of risk of negative points Universal electric equipment, electrical equipment is disclosed in the risk status experienced of different moments by negative point sequence, it can be used for improving O&M scheme, cost is reduced, is improved service quality.The technology has a wide range of applications in terms of the optimization of O&M Strategies of Maintenance, the base's O&M service work of the early warning of emphasis device intelligence, large number of equipment are coordinated.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric data analysis fields, based on a kind of negative point by electrical equipment risk assessment
Calculation method.
Background technique
The even running of electrical equipment is the important guarantee of the power supply safety of electric system, the sudden event in electric system
The generation of barrier can bring huge economic loss and severe social influence.Development and electric power city with China's power industry
Reform implementation, the periodic inspection system of current device in terms of overhauling task choosing, time between overhauls(TBO) existing for disadvantage
End becomes increasingly conspicuous.Therefore, immediately monitoring is carried out to the state of the electrical equipment in electric system, grasps equipment comprehensively when each
Between state in section avoided to a certain extent when equipment shows that aging or the situation that will be broken down carry out early warning
The generation of the catastrophic discontinuityfailure of electric system.In addition, electrical equipment online monitoring information can be not only used for the inspection of electrical equipment
It repairs, and can be used for determining the safe condition of electrical equipment online, further realize bulk power grid security monitoring.
The main equipment of core of distribution transformer as power distribution network is to ensure electric energy distribution transmission, the reliable electricity consumption of user
Key element, have the characteristics that quantity is more, distribution is wide, running environment is complicated.It is required according to industry security, transformer uses the longevity
Life is generally at 20 to 35 years (by maintenance appropriate, can actually extend to 50 years).It is shown according to related data, at present China's electricity
Transformer used in Force system is much close to the time limit in Theoretical Design service life, if not taking preventive measure appropriate, by
The risks such as power failure caused by transformer fault, electric leakage, explosion will greatly increase.With the rapid development of social economy and use
Family power demand continues to increase, and power distribution network scale constantly expands, and distribution transformer equipment total amount continues to increase, equipment O&M pipe
It is very prominent to manage pressure.
According to the requirement of Guo Wang company " distribution net equipment State Overhaul Test regulation ", at present mainly using inspection, customary examination
It tests and diagnostic test obtains state quantity of the equipment, with the targetedly repair based on condition of component plan of formulation.But the big, base by equipment O&M amount
The factors such as O&M strength deficiency influence, and equipment routing inspection and test period are relatively long, it is difficult to which dynamic is effectively grasped equipment performance and become
Change and recessive development of defects process.Simultaneously to the Key state that can cause failure, hand is analyzed without effectively quantitative evaluation
Section breaks down, occurs which kind of failure lacks effective early warning decision ability, for when with passive repairing for main O&M
Means, operating analysis, detection test, breakdown repair lack effective linkage harmony, it is difficult to play the whole work of O&M teams and groups
Make ability.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of negative point calculating methods for electrical equipment risk assessment.This method passes through note
Electrical equipment risk status experienced is recorded, different degrees of risk and duration length is distinguished, realizes the risk of electrical equipment
Assessment.The invention has the advantages that algorithm is accurate, quick, steady, it is stateful that electrical equipment institute experienced can be objectively responded.
Technical solution of the present invention:
A kind of negative point calculating method for electrical equipment risk assessment, including step in detail below.
Data cleansing: removing unreasonable data, such as excalation data and negative valued data；
Degree of risk discretization: according to measured data, equipment state in which is divided into: normal work, average risk, tight
Four weight risk, key risk levels, respectively by 0,1,2,3 mark, wherein 0 is normal operating conditions, remaining is risk shape
State obtains being denoted as P (k) by the work sequence of 0,1,2,3 composition；
Abnormal work sequence is modified: the work sequence P (k) for being 0,1,2,3 for value, if P (k)=0, and P
(k-3), P (k-2), P (k-1), P (k+1), P (k+2), P (k+3) are not equal to 0, then P (k) are modified to this six several calculations
The integer part of art average value；
The negative points of work sequence P (k) are calculated, k is positive integer.
The degree of risk discretization the specific steps are according to the threshold value T of regulation1、T2、T3, to monitoring data carry out from
Dispersion forms work sequence, and concrete operations are as follows:
Normal operating conditions: current time monitoring data are less than T1, it is believed that equipment is now at normal operating conditions, in work
Make to mark the moment in sequence with 0；
Average risk state: current time, monitoring data were in T1And T2Between when, it is believed that equipment is now at average risk shape
State marks the moment in work sequence with 1；
Serious risk state: current time, monitoring data were in T2And T3Between when, it is believed that equipment is now at serious risk shape
State marks the moment in work sequence with 2；
Key risk state: current time monitoring data are not less than T3When, it is believed that equipment now at key risk state,
The moment is marked in work sequence with 3.
That is: if note detection data is Q (t), recording workpoints to contribute a foreword is classified as P (k), then
The negative point calculating process of the work sequence P (k) comprises the steps of:
(1) the work sequence P (k) of 0,1,2,3 compositions is divided into the section being made of continuous non-zero value；
(2) given threshold value j, if one section of work sequence includes the non-zero work sequence that m segment length is not less than j, the length is
D1,D2,…,Dm, the summation of non-zero work sequence is respectively S1,S2,…,Sm, the length of non-zero work sequence is Mi；
(3) it is not less than the non-zero work sequence of j to the i-th segment length, usesReflect the degree of equipment non-normal working；
(4) it is not less than the non-zero work sequence of j to the i-th segment length, if Mi< 2j, since the risk status duration is short, no
It needs to compensate the risk time；If Mi>=2j is used due to risk status duration long enoughTime bias is carried out, wherein g isInteger part；
The negative points of non-zero work sequence of (5) i-th segment length not less than j are
The negative points of each point are N in non-zero work sequence of (6) i-th segment length not less than ji/Mi；
(7) the negative point sum of work sequence is
(8) the negative points of certain time are equal to the sum of negative points of all moment in this time；
D is the work sequence non-zero section that length is greater than j, DiIt is greater than the work sequence non-zero section of j, D for i-th of lengthmIt is
M length is greater than the work sequence non-zero section of j, and m is the number of work sequence non-zero section of the length greater than j in work sequence, i.e. D
Middle DiNumber, SiTo form DiThe sum of numberCiFor DiThe risk working time compensation, NiIt is in D i-th
Section DiNegative points, i=1,2,3 ..., m=1,2,3 ....The threshold value j chosen in the step (2) takes 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or 8.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are: algorithm of the invention considers that the degree of risk of electrical equipment and risk status are held simultaneously
The continuous time；After determining the risk class of electrical equipment, calculating process of the invention is objective；Negative point quantity concentrated expression
Electrical equipment all risk status experienced；The negative point-number sequence calculated can be used for improving the O&M of electrical equipment
Scheme reduces cost, improves service quality.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is load factor changes of threshold of the present invention and negative points relational graph；
Fig. 2 is current imbalance changes of threshold of the present invention and negative points relational graph；
Fig. 3 is that Voltage unbalance threshold value of the present invention changes and negative points relational graph；
Fig. 4 is the negative points of certain high-risk transformer week load factor in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 5 is the negative points of certain high-risk transformer week Voltage unbalance in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 6 is the negative points of certain non-high-risk transformer week load factor during the present invention implements；
Fig. 7 is the negative points of certain non-high-risk transformer week Voltage unbalance in the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Technical solution of the present invention:
This method first cleans data, removes unreasonable data.Later using defined threshold value to electrical equipment
Risk status carry out discretization, obtain work sequence and abnormal work sequence be modified.Finally according to modified work
Sequence calculates negative point.
Negative point calculates step:
One, data cleansing.Data cleansing be in order to remove unreasonable data, the specific behaviour of cleaning should according to data characteristics into
Row.
Two, Data Discretization.According to the threshold value T of regulation1、T2、T3, discretization is carried out to monitoring data, forms work sequence
Column, concrete operations are as follows:
Normal operating conditions (Proper): current time monitoring data are less than T1, it is believed that equipment is now at normal work
State marks the moment in work sequence with 0；
Average risk state (Moderate): current time, monitoring data were in T1And T2Between when, it is believed that equipment now at
Average risk state marks the moment in work sequence with 1；
Serious risk state (Serious): current time, monitoring data were in T2And T3Between when, it is believed that equipment now at
Serious risk state marks the moment in work sequence with 2；
Key risk state (Critical): current time monitoring data are not less than T3When, it is believed that equipment is now at pass
Key risk status marks the moment in work sequence with 3.
That is: if note detection data is Q (t), recording workpoints to contribute a foreword is classified as P (k), then
Three, abnormal work sequence is modified.In the actual work of electrical equipment, seldom there is abnormal work for a long time
The phenomenon that making state and short time normal operating conditions and depositing, it can be considered that such working condition is made by data exception
At, such data should be modified.Such as to such work sequence: P (k-3), P (k-2), P (k-1), P (k),
P (k+1), P (k+2), P (k+3), wherein P (k)=0, P (k+i) ≠ 0, i=± 1, ± 2, ± 3.It, can be by P then in amendment
(k) it replaces with closestInteger (rounding up).
Four, negative point is calculated.The non-normal working degree of equipment is bigger, the abnormal operating state duration is longer, to setting
The influence in standby service life is bigger.Therefore, the calculating for bearing point should consider the size and non-zero work sequence of non-zero work sequence simultaneously
Length.Given threshold value j, this method think that abnormal operating state of the length less than j does not impact equipment safety.If one
Section work sequence includes the non-zero work sequence that m segment length is not less than j, and the length is D1,D2,…,Dm, non-zero work sequence
Summation is respectively S1,S2,…,Sm, the length of non-zero work sequence is Mi, the present invention calculates negative point using following methods.
It is not less than the non-zero work sequence of j to s segment length, usesReflect the degree of equipment non-normal working；
It is not less than the non-zero work sequence of j to s segment length, if Mi< 2j is not required to since the risk status duration is short
The risk time is compensated；If Mi>=2j is used due to risk status duration long enoughTime bias is carried out, wherein g isInteger part.Here the time mends
It repays and embodies such thought: the risk shape that the continuous risk status that a segment length the is kj overall length more separated than several is kj
State is more dangerous；
The negative points of non-zero work sequence of i-th segment length not less than j are
The negative points of each point are N in non-zero work sequence of i-th segment length not less than ji/Mi；
The negative point sum of work sequence is
The negative points of certain time (such as: week, the moon) are equal to the sum of negative points of all moment in this time.
Symbol description
The present invention only choose discretization work sequence threshold value when be it is subjective, other calculating are all objective.It chooses
Different threshold values will obtain different work sequences, so that the negative points being calculated also can be variant.But in fact, threshold value
Variation can change the size of negative points, but not change their sequence, i.e., algorithm of the invention has robustness.It gives below
Some examples illustrate this robustness out.Fig. 1, Fig. 2, Fig. 3 are respectively using 20 obtained from Hubei grid operational system
The negative points that distribution transformer load factor, current three-phase are uneven, voltage three-phase imbalance sequence acquires.As can be seen that discrete
The variation for changing work sequence threshold value only influences the size of negative points, does not influence the ranking between machine.
Embodiment one
This example chooses the high-risk intraday historic load rate data of distribution transformer in Hubei grid operational system
Example is calculated, and shows calculating process of the invention.Here it is non-that high-risk refers to that this transformer is had occurred after a period of time
The failure of external force.
Table 1 gives the load factor data of this station power distribution transformer in this day, sequentially to be read line by line by first left-to-right.
Certain the high-risk intraday load factor data of distribution transformer of table 1
1. data cleansing
The number it can be seen that the 4th data are negative, will not according to the normal load factor data of the practical significance of load factor
For negative, therefore the 4th data are set to 0.In addition to this without obvious abnormal data, data cleansing is completed.Number after cleaning
It is provided according to by table 2.
Load factor data after the cleaning of table 2
2. Data Discretization
According to national grid correlation article, 0.30,0.60,0.90 pair of data of selected threshold carry out discretization.Data are small
It is denoted as zero in 0.30 position, data are not less than 0.30 and the position less than 0.60 is denoted as 1, data are not less than 0.60 and small
2 are denoted as in 0.90 position, the position by data not less than 0.90 is denoted as 3.The work sequence of the load factor obtained after discretization
It is provided by table 3.
The work sequence of the load factor obtained after 3 discretization of table
3. correcting work sequence
Generally, it is considered that the load factor of distribution transformer is not in normal among 45 minutes of two continuous irregular workings
The phenomenon that working 15 minutes, i.e., corresponding work sequence are not in " non-zero, non-zero, non-zero, zero, non-zero, non-zero, non-zero "
State, therefore zero among such sequence is changed to the rounding of other six data mean values.The data of table 3 are modified, are obtained
To table 4 as a result, being wherein rounded using the method to round up.
The revised load factor work sequence of table 4
4. calculating negative point
According to actual needs, it will be negative a little not less than continuous 6 non-zeros work sequence identification.There was only one section of satisfaction in table 4
It is required that non-zero work sequence (as total data), the length of this section of work sequence is 96, all working sequence data summation
It is 227.Therefore the negative points in this day are as follows:
The negative points at this day each moment are 52.8333/96=0.55.
Wherein two hours negative points are 0.55*8=4.40.
Embodiment two
This example chooses the non-high-risk intraday historic load rate data of distribution transformer in Hubei grid operational system
For calculated, show calculating process of the invention.Here in non-high-risk ten months referred to after this transformer not
The failure of non-external force occurs.
Table 5 gives the load factor data of this station power distribution transformer in this day, sequentially to be read line by line by first left-to-right.
Certain the non-high-risk intraday load factor data of distribution transformer of table 5
1. data cleansing
Data fit specification in table 5, without cleaning.
2. Data Discretization
According to national grid correlation article, 0.30,0.60,0.90 pair of data of selected threshold carry out discretization.Data are small
It is denoted as zero in 0.30 position, data are not less than 0.30 and the position less than 0.60 is denoted as 1, data are not less than 0.60 and small
2 are denoted as in 0.90 position, the position by data not less than 0.90 is denoted as 3.The work sequence of the load factor obtained after discretization
It is provided by table 6.
The work sequence of the load factor obtained after 6 discretization of table
3. correcting work sequence
Generally, it is considered that the load factor of distribution transformer is not in normal among 45 minutes of two continuous irregular workings
The phenomenon that working 15 minutes, i.e., corresponding work sequence are not in " non-zero, non-zero, non-zero, zero, non-zero, non-zero, non-zero "
State, therefore zero among such sequence should be changed to the rounding of other six data mean values.According to this rule, in table 6
Modified place is not needed.
4. calculating negative point
According to actual needs, it will be negative a little not less than continuous 6 non-zeros work sequence identification.Only have in table 6 one section it is continuous
Non-zero work sequence (i.e. 111111), the length of this section of work sequence is 6, and all working sequence data summation is 6.Therefore this
Negative points in it are as follows:
Several negative calculated results are shown
With the distribution transformer data instance acquired in Hubei grid operational system, show that the negative point that the present invention obtains calculates
As a result.Fig. 4, Fig. 5 respectively show load factor of certain the high-risk transformer before failure in 17 weeks, the negative point of voltage three-phase imbalance
Situation.Fig. 6, Fig. 7 respectively show load factor, the negative point feelings of voltage three-phase imbalance in certain non-high-risk transformer 51 weeks
Condition.It can be seen from the figure that the negative points of the load factor of high-risk transformer, voltage three-phase imbalance are all apparently higher than normal transformer
Negative points, show the reasonability of calculation method of the present invention.
It although an embodiment of the present invention has been shown and described, for the ordinary skill in the art, can be with
A variety of variations, modification, replacement can be carried out to these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention by understanding
And modification, the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of negative point calculating method for electrical equipment risk assessment, it is characterised in that: including step in detail below,
Data cleansing: removing unreasonable data, such as excalation data and negative valued data；
Degree of risk discretization: according to measured data, equipment state in which is divided into: normal work, average risk, serious wind
Four danger, key risk levels, respectively by 0,1,2,3 mark, wherein 0 is normal operating conditions, remaining is risk status, is obtained
To the work sequence by 0,1,2,3 composition, it is denoted as P (k)；
Abnormal work sequence is modified: the work sequence P (k) for being 0,1,2,3 for value, if P (k)=0, and P (k-
3), P (k-2), P (k-1), P (k+1), P (k+2), P (k+3) are not equal to 0, then it is flat P (k) to be modified to this six several arithmetic
The integer part of mean value；
The negative points of work sequence P (k) are calculated, k is positive integer.
2. a kind of negative point calculating method for electrical equipment risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: institute
State degree of risk discretization the specific steps are according to the threshold value T of regulation1、T2、T3, discretization is carried out to monitoring data, is formed
Work sequence, concrete operations are as follows:
Normal operating conditions: current time monitoring data are less than T1, it is believed that equipment is now at normal operating conditions, in work sequence
The moment is marked in column with 0；
Average risk state: current time, monitoring data were in T1And T2Between when, it is believed that equipment now at average risk state,
The moment is marked in work sequence with 1；
Serious risk state: current time, monitoring data were in T2And T3Between when, it is believed that equipment now at serious risk state,
The moment is marked in work sequence with 2；
Key risk state: current time monitoring data are not less than T3When, it is believed that equipment is now at key risk state, in work
Make to mark the moment in sequence with 3.
That is: if note detection data is Q (t), recording workpoints to contribute a foreword is classified as P (k), then
3. a kind of negative point calculating method for electrical equipment risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: institute
The negative point calculating process of work sequence P (k) is stated to comprise the steps of:
(1) the work sequence P (k) of 0,1,2,3 compositions is divided into the section being made of continuous non-zero value；
(2) given threshold value j, if one section of work sequence includes the non-zero work sequence that m segment length is not less than j, the length is D1,
D2,…,Dm, the summation of non-zero work sequence is respectively S1,S2,…,Sm, the length of non-zero work sequence is Mi；
(3) it is not less than the non-zero work sequence of j to the i-th segment length, usesReflect the degree of equipment non-normal working；
(4) it is not less than the non-zero work sequence of j to the i-th segment length, if Mi< 2j is not needed since the risk status duration is short
The risk time is compensated；If Mi>=2j is used due to risk status duration long enoughTime bias is carried out, wherein g isInteger part；
The negative points of non-zero work sequence of (5) i-th segment length not less than j are
The negative points of each point are N in non-zero work sequence of (6) i-th segment length not less than ji/Mi；
(7) the negative point sum of work sequence is
(8) the negative points of certain time are equal to the sum of negative points of all moment in this time；
D is the work sequence non-zero section that length is greater than j, DiIt is greater than the work sequence non-zero section of j, D for i-th of lengthmIt is m-th
Length is greater than the work sequence non-zero section of j, and m is the number of work sequence non-zero section of the length greater than j in work sequence, i.e. in D
DiNumber, SiTo form DiThe sum of numberCiFor DiThe risk working time compensation, NiFor i-th section in D
DiNegative points, i=1,2,3 ..., m=1,2,3 ....
4. a kind of negative point calculating method for electrical equipment risk assessment according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: institute
It states the threshold value j chosen in step (2) and takes 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or 8.
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