CN104899453A - State evaluation and risk assessment method of breaker - Google Patents
State evaluation and risk assessment method of breaker Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a state evaluation and risk assessment method of a breaker. Breaker basic standing book information, operation information, maintenance test information, environment information and the like are used as a basis, an aging theory is used as a core, and state evaluation is performed on the breaker to realize assessment of a health state of the breaker. The risk evaluation is performed on the breaker from the four aspects of power network performance, personal safety, repair cost and environment, so risk assessment of the breaker is realized; therefore, support is provided for making of a breaker maintenance plan, and help is provided for development of state maintenance of the breaker.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of state evaluation and risk evaluation of power equipment, in particular to a method for state evaluation and risk evaluation of a circuit breaker.
Background
The circuit breaker is an important execution element of an electric power system, is an important control and protection device of the electric power system for power generation, transmission and distribution, and is an important electrical device which integrates faults, overhaul and parameter measurement with the most frequency, so that the reliable operation of the circuit breaker directly influences the grid safety of the electric power system.
In recent years, with the rapid development of power grids and the rapid advancement of power automation systems, the regular maintenance work of power equipment is not more and more suitable for the actual needs of power production, and the equipment state maintenance is gradually introduced into the research field of power systems. However, the current research on the condition maintenance of the circuit breaker mainly focuses on the application of on-line monitoring, such as the mechanical characteristic monitoring, mechanical vibration monitoring, electrical life monitoring, SF of the circuit breaker6Gas monitoring, etc. For the research of the state evaluation of the circuit breaker, the state grid company SF is mainly available6High-voltage circuit breaker state evaluation guide and south-grid power grid company' 35 kV-500 kVSF6 circuit breaker state evaluation guide (trial), wherein both evaluation guides mainly aim at SF6The breaker is similar in evaluation method, a mode of weighting and deducting after manual scoring is adopted, and the state grades are divided into a normal state, an attention state, an abnormal state and a serious state. The method comprises the steps of firstly determining the cracking degree and the weight coefficient of each state quantity of each component, calculating to obtain the single deduction value and the total deduction value of each component, judging the state grade of each component of the breaker, and then integrating the state grades of each component to finally obtain the overall state grade of the breaker. And no formal standard exists for the research on the risk evaluation of the circuit breaker at present.
The prior art has the following disadvantages:
1) each evaluation needs to be manually scored, and automatic evaluation by a computer is difficult to realize;
2) risk evaluation cannot be realized, so that the circuit breaker state overhaul is helped from an economic perspective.
Therefore, a method for evaluating the state and risk of the circuit breaker with high automation degree needs to be designed, the state of the circuit breaker is evaluated by taking the basic ledger information, the operation information, the overhaul test information, the environment and other information of the circuit breaker as the basis and the aging theory as the core, and the evaluation on the health state of the circuit breaker is realized. And, from four aspects of electric wire netting performance, personal safety, repair cost and environmental impact, carry out risk assessment to the circuit breaker, realize the evaluation to the circuit breaker risk to for the formulation of circuit breaker maintenance plan provides support, provide help for the development of circuit breaker state maintenance.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the present invention provides a method for evaluating a state and a risk of a circuit breaker, which implements state and risk evaluation of the circuit breaker and grasps a state and a risk value of the circuit breaker by using a state evaluation and risk evaluation model established based on data such as basic information and state information of the circuit breaker.
The purpose of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
the invention discloses a method for evaluating the state and the risk of a circuit breaker, which comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: collecting and quantifying data required by evaluation, wherein the required data comprises basic machine account information of the circuit breaker, appearance information of the circuit breaker, environment information and SF (sulfur hexafluoride)6The method comprises the following steps that test information, preventive test information, defect information, accident event information, a transformer substation and risk information are automatically acquired according to a computer interface technology, and data quantization is realized through a computer program according to a set data information standard;
step two: calculating health index and fault occurrence probability to realize state evaluation of circuit breaker
The breaker state evaluation is realized by establishing a breaker state evaluation model, and the evaluation comprises the calculation of a breaker health index and the calculation of fault occurrence probability.
1) Calculation of health index
Calculating the health index of the circuit breaker according to a calculation formula of the health index of the circuit breaker, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
In the formula 1, HICBIs a circuit breaker health index; c1Is an initial value of 0.5; e is a natural constant; c2The aging rate of the circuit breaker is obtained through statistical calculation; and t is the operating life of the circuit breaker and is calculated according to the commissioning date and the current date of the circuit breaker.
2) Calculation of probability of occurrence of failure
After the health index of the circuit breaker is obtained by calculation according to the formula 1, the fault occurrence probability of the circuit breaker is obtained by calculation according to a fault occurrence probability calculation formula, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
In the formula, FR is the fault occurrence probability; k is a proportionality coefficient; c is a curvature coefficient; HI (high-intensity)CBIs a circuit breaker health index value;
step three: calculating each sub-risk
The calculation of the breaker risk comprises calculation of power grid performance risk, personal safety risk, repair cost risk and environmental influence risk, and a risk calculation formula is as follows:
RISK＝FRi×CFi×CAi(formula 3)
Wherein, RISK is the RISK value; FR is the probability of failure occurrence; CF is a fault consequence; CA is a fault consequence correction coefficient; i is a risk category;
the formula for each sub-risk is as follows:
1) calculation of grid performance risk
The fault consequence calculation formula of the power grid performance risk is as follows:
In the formula, CFNPFault consequences that are grid performance risks; l is the load for risk calculation; t isHRiDuration of high risk period for each fault type; fHRiLoad loss probability for each fault type in a high risk period; t isLRiDuration of low risk period for each fault type; fLRiThe load loss probability of each fault type in a low risk period; v is the power generation ratio of unit electric quantity;
the calculation formula of the fault consequence correction coefficient of the power grid performance risk is as follows:
In the formula, CANPCorrecting the coefficient for the consequence of the grid performance risk fault; f. ofiIs a state quantity coefficient; f. ofNPavgThe average value of the product of the i sub-coefficients is obtained for all the breakers.
Calculating according to a formula 3, a formula 4 and a formula 5 to obtain the power grid performance risk;
2) calculation of personal safety risks
The failure consequence calculation formula of the personal safety risk is as follows:
CFSA＝Si×FSin (formula 6)
In the formula, CFSAFor personal safetyThe consequences of a fault; si is a personal safety category; fSin is the probability under each fault category;
the calculation method of the personal safety fault consequence correction coefficient is the same as the formula 5.
Obtaining personal safety risk according to the calculation of formula 3, formula 5 and formula 6;
3) computation of cost risk of repair
The fault consequence of the repair cost risk is the cost obtained by statistics after the breaker fails, namely the cost for eliminating the faults under different fault categories, and the calculation method of the repair cost fault consequence correction coefficient is the same as the formula 5;
calculating according to the formula 3, the formula 5 and the set repair cost fault consequence to obtain a repair cost risk;
4) calculation of environmental impact risks
The failure consequence calculation formula of the environmental impact risk is as follows:
CFEN＝ENi×FENik (equation 7)
In the formula, CFENAs a consequence of an environmentally affected malfunction; ENi is an environmental impact category; fENik is the probability under each fault category; calculating according to formula 3, formula 5 and formula 7 to obtain environment influence risks;
5) calculation of Total Risk
The total risk is the sum of the four sub-risks, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein, RISK is the RISK value; FRi is the fault occurrence probability of each risk category; CFi is the fault consequence of each risk category; and CAi is a fault consequence correction coefficient of each risk category.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
1) the method can realize high-speed evaluation and judgment, reduce the workload of related personnel and greatly improve the efficiency of equipment evaluation;
2) the state evaluation and the risk evaluation of the circuit breaker are realized, so that the evaluation of the circuit breaker can be more accurately and efficiently realized by assisting a power enterprise, and help is provided for the development of state maintenance;
3) the risk is quantified through currency, and the maintenance cost of the circuit breaker can be judged more intuitively, so that reference is provided for the formulation of a maintenance plan.
Additional advantages, objects, and features of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and in part will become apparent to those having ordinary skill in the art upon examination of the following or may be learned from practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof.
Drawings
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which:
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a risk assessment process;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of a fault consequence correction coefficient calculation process;
FIG. 4 is a histogram of an embodiment circuit breaker health index;
fig. 5 is an embodiment circuit breaker risk bar graph.
Detailed Description
Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the preferred embodiments are illustrative of the invention only and are not limiting upon the scope of the invention.
As shown in fig. 1 to 3, the method for evaluating the state and risk of a circuit breaker according to the present invention includes the steps of:
the method comprises the following steps: collecting and quantifying data required by evaluation, wherein the required data comprises basic machine account information of the circuit breaker, appearance information of the circuit breaker, environment information and SF (sulfur hexafluoride)6The method comprises the following steps that test information, preventive test information, defect information, accident event information, a transformer substation and risk information are automatically acquired according to a computer interface technology, and data quantization is realized through a computer program according to a set data information standard;
step two: calculating a health index and a fault occurrence probability to realize the state evaluation of the circuit breaker;
the method comprises the steps of realizing the state evaluation of the circuit breaker by establishing a circuit breaker state evaluation model, wherein the state evaluation comprises the calculation of a circuit breaker health index and the calculation of a fault occurrence probability;
1) calculation of health index
Calculating the health index of the circuit breaker according to a calculation formula of the health index of the circuit breaker, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
In the formula 1, HICBIs a circuit breaker health index; c1Is an initial value of 0.5; e is a natural constant; c2The aging rate of the circuit breaker is obtained through statistical calculation; and t is the operating life of the circuit breaker and is calculated according to the commissioning date and the current date of the circuit breaker.
2) Calculation of probability of occurrence of failure
After the health index of the circuit breaker is obtained by calculation according to the formula 1, the fault occurrence probability of the circuit breaker is obtained by calculation according to a fault occurrence probability calculation formula, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
In the formula, FR is the fault occurrence probability; k is a proportionality coefficient; c is a curvature coefficient; HI (high-intensity)CBIs a circuit breaker health index value;
step three: calculating each sub-risk
The calculation of the breaker risk comprises calculation of power grid performance risk, personal safety risk, repair cost risk and environmental influence risk, and a risk calculation formula is as follows:
RISK＝FRi×CFi×CAi(formula 3)
Wherein, RISK is the RISK value; FR is the probability of failure occurrence; CF is a fault consequence; CA is a fault consequence correction coefficient; i is a risk category;
the formula for each sub-risk is as follows:
1) calculation of grid performance risk
The fault consequence calculation formula of the power grid performance risk is as follows:
In the formula, CFNPFault consequences that are grid performance risks; l is the load for risk calculation; t isHRiDuration of high risk period for each fault type; fHRiLoad loss probability for each fault type in a high risk period; t isLRiDuration of low risk period for each fault type; fLRiThe load loss probability of each fault type in a low risk period; v is the power generation ratio of unit electric quantity;
the calculation formula of the fault consequence correction coefficient of the power grid performance risk is as follows:
In the formula, CANPCorrecting the coefficient for the consequence of the grid performance risk fault; f. ofiIs a state quantity coefficient; f. ofNPavgThe average value of the product of the i sub-coefficients is obtained for all the breakers.
Calculating according to a formula 3, a formula 4 and a formula 5 to obtain the power grid performance risk;
in the formula, the fault consequence correction coefficients of the power grid performance risk include three important grade coefficients f1 of the transformer substation, a difficulty grade coefficient f2 of accessory acquisition and a load grade coefficient f3 of a power supply object, and a specific calculation formula is shown in formula 5; wherein,
the ranking and values of f1 are shown in the following table:
| grade | Description of the invention | Coefficient value of |
| 1 | Terminal transformer | 2 |
| 2 | Contact transformer | 1.5 |
| 3 | Hinge transformer | 2 |
The f2 is classified and valued as follows:
| grade | Description of the invention | Coefficient value of |
| 1 | Ready-to-use spare parts, or accessories, are readily available | 1 |
| 2 | There are no ready-made spare parts and the access to the accessory is difficult, or the time required to access the accessory is long | 1.3 |
| 3 | The fittings have been taken out of production or are very difficult to access | 1.5 |
The f3 is classified and valued as follows:
| grade | Description of the invention | Coefficient value of |
| 1 | Premium users | 1.5 |
| 2 | Primary user | 1.3 |
| 3 | Secondary users | 1.1 |
| 4 | Three-level user | 1 |
In the formula, CANPCorrecting the coefficient for the consequence of the grid performance risk fault; f. ofiThe state quantity coefficient is f1, wherein f2 is a transformer substation important grade coefficient, f2 is a fitting acquisition difficulty grade coefficient, and f3 is a power supply object load grade coefficient; f. ofNPavgIs the average value, i.e. the average value of the sum of f calculated for all circuit breakers.
2) Calculation of personal safety risks
The failure consequence calculation formula of the personal safety risk is as follows:
CFSA＝Si×FSin (formula 6)
In the formula, CFSAIs the result of personal safety failure; si is a human body safety category, and can be set as light injury, heavy injury and death, namely, the value of i is 1, 2 and 3; fSin is the probability under each fault category, and the values of n are 1, 2, 3 and 4;
the calculation method of the personal safety fault consequence correction coefficient is the same as the formula 5.
Obtaining personal safety risk according to the calculation of formula 3, formula 5 and formula 6;
3) computation of cost risk of repair
The fault consequence of the repair cost risk is the cost obtained by statistics after the breaker fails, namely the cost for eliminating the faults under different fault categories, and the calculation method of the repair cost fault consequence correction coefficient is the same as the formula 5;
calculating according to the formula 3, the formula 5 and the set repair cost fault consequence to obtain a repair cost risk;
4) calculation of environmental impact risks
The failure consequence calculation formula of the environmental impact risk is as follows:
CFEN＝ENi×FENik (equation 7)
In the formula, CFENAs a consequence of an environmentally affected malfunction; ENi is an environmental impact category, such as SF6 leaks, fires, etc.; FENik is the probability under each fault category, generally, i is 1, 2, 3, 4; k is 1, 2, 3, 4.
Calculating according to formula 3, formula 5 and formula 7 to obtain environment influence risks;
5) calculation of Total Risk
The total risk is the sum of the four sub-risks, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein, RISK is the RISK value; FRi is the fault occurrence probability of each risk category; CFi is the fault consequence of each risk category; and CAi is a fault consequence correction coefficient of each risk category.
The specific embodiment is as follows:
the method comprises the following steps: data required for evaluation are collected and quantified
Basic standing book information, circuit breaker appearance information, environment information, SF6 test information, preventive test information, defect information, accident event information, transformer substation and risk information and the like of a circuit breaker of 110kV or more of a certain power company are obtained through a computer interface, and the data are quantized according to data information standards.
Step two: calculating a health index and a fault occurrence probability to realize the state evaluation of the circuit breaker;
step 2.1: the circuit breaker health index was calculated using equation 1 and the results are shown in the following table:
table 1 circuit breaker health index list
| Device name | Current index of health | Future 5 th annual health index |
| 211CB | 0.68 | 1.04 |
| 213CB | 3.38 | 4.46 |
| 214CB | 4.06 | 4.90 |
| 202CB | 6.21 | 7.45 |
| 210CB | 5.27 | 6.16 |
| 240CB | 3.07 | 4.12 |
| 220CB | 1.84 | 2.48 |
| 205CB | 2.60 | 3.72 |
| 208CB | 5.93 | 7.06 |
| 204CB | 5.96 | 7.09 |
Meanwhile, as shown in fig. 4, a histogram of the health index of the circuit breaker is obtained;
step 2.2: calculating the fault occurrence probability of the circuit breaker by using a formula 2 according to the health index of the circuit breaker calculated in the step 2.1, wherein the result is as follows:
TABLE 2 probability of circuit breaker failure
And step 3: calculating each sub-risk, and realizing the risk evaluation of the circuit breaker:
step 3.1: calculating the power grid performance risk of the circuit breaker by using a formula 3, a formula 4 and a formula 5 according to the fault occurrence probability calculated in the step 3;
step 3.2: calculating personal safety risks of the circuit breaker according to a formula 3, a formula 5 and a formula 6;
step 3.3: calculating according to the formula 3, the formula 5 and the set repair cost fault consequence to obtain a repair cost risk;
step 3.4: calculating according to formula 3, formula 5 and formula 7 to obtain the environmental impact risk;
step 3.5: according to the formula 8 and the calculation results of the steps 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 and 3.4, the total risk of the circuit breaker is obtained by calculation, and the result is as follows, and simultaneously, a circuit breaker risk histogram as shown in fig. 5 is obtained:
TABLE 3 Current annual breaker Risk
TABLE 4 future year 5 risk of circuit breaker
Finally, the above embodiments are only intended to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit the present invention, and although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that modifications or equivalent substitutions may be made on the technical solutions of the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions, and all of them should be covered by the claims of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. The state evaluation and risk evaluation method of the circuit breaker is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: collecting and quantifying data required by evaluation, wherein the required data comprises basic machine account information of the circuit breaker, appearance information of the circuit breaker, environment information and SF (sulfur hexafluoride)6The method comprises the following steps that test information, preventive test information, defect information, accident event information, a transformer substation and risk information are automatically acquired according to a computer interface technology, and data quantization is realized through a computer program according to a set data information standard;
step two: calculating health index and fault occurrence probability to realize state evaluation of circuit breaker
The method comprises the steps of realizing the state evaluation of the circuit breaker by establishing a circuit breaker state evaluation model, wherein the state evaluation comprises the calculation of a circuit breaker health index and the calculation of a fault occurrence probability;
1) calculation of health index
Calculating the health index of the circuit breaker according to a calculation formula of the health index of the circuit breaker, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
In the formula 1, HICBIs a circuit breaker health index; c1Is an initial value of 0.5; e is a natural constant; c2The aging rate of the circuit breaker is obtained through statistical calculation; t is the operating life of the circuit breaker and is obtained by calculation according to the commissioning date and the current date of the circuit breaker;
2) calculation of probability of occurrence of failure
After the health index of the circuit breaker is obtained by calculation according to the formula 1, the fault occurrence probability of the circuit breaker is obtained by calculation according to a fault occurrence probability calculation formula, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
In the formula, FR is the fault occurrence probability; k is a proportionality coefficient; c is a curvature coefficient; HI (high-intensity)CBIs a circuit breaker health index value;
step three: calculating each sub-risk
The calculation of the breaker risk comprises calculation of power grid performance risk, personal safety risk, repair cost risk and environmental influence risk, and a risk calculation formula is as follows:
RISK＝FRi×CFi×CAi(formula 3)
Wherein, RISK is the RISK value; FR is the probability of failure occurrence; CF is a fault consequence; CA is a fault consequence correction coefficient; i is a risk category;
the formula for each sub-risk is as follows:
1) calculation of grid performance risk
The fault consequence calculation formula of the power grid performance risk is as follows:
In the formula, CFNPFault consequences that are grid performance risks; l is the load for risk calculation; t isHRiDuration of high risk period for each fault type; fHRiLoad loss probability for each fault type in a high risk period; t isLRiDuration of low risk period for each fault type; fLRiThe load loss probability of each fault type in a low risk period; v is the power generation ratio of unit electric quantity;
the calculation formula of the fault consequence correction coefficient of the power grid performance risk is as follows:
In the formula, CANPCorrecting the coefficient for the consequence of the grid performance risk fault; f. ofiIs a state quantity coefficient; f. ofNPavgThe average value of the product of the i sub-coefficients of all the circuit breakers is obtained;
calculating according to a formula 3, a formula 4 and a formula 5 to obtain the power grid performance risk;
2) calculation of personal safety risks
The failure consequence calculation formula of the personal safety risk is as follows:
CFSA＝Si×FSin (formula 6)
In the formula, CFSAIs the result of personal safety failure; si is a personal safety category; fSin is the probability under each fault category;
the personal safety failure consequence correction coefficient calculation method applies formula 5;
obtaining personal safety risk according to the calculation of formula 3, formula 5 and formula 6;
3) computation of cost risk of repair
The fault consequence of the repair cost risk is the cost obtained by statistics after the breaker fails, namely the cost for eliminating the faults under different fault categories, and the formula 5 is applied to the repair cost fault consequence correction coefficient calculation method;
calculating according to the formula 3, the formula 5 and the set repair cost fault consequence to obtain a repair cost risk;
4) calculation of environmental impact risks
The failure consequence calculation formula of the environmental impact risk is as follows:
CFEN＝ENi×FENik (equation 7)
In the formula, CFENAs a consequence of an environmentally affected malfunction; ENi is an environmental impact category; fENik is the probability under each fault category; calculating according to formula 3, formula 5 and formula 7 to obtain environment influence risks;
5) calculation of Total Risk
The total risk is the sum of the four sub-risks, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein, RISK is the RISK value; FRi is the fault occurrence probability of each risk category; CFi is the fault consequence of each risk category; and CAi is a fault consequence correction coefficient of each risk category.
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| CN105467312A (en) * | 2015-12-31 | 2016-04-06 | 北京四方继保自动化股份有限公司 | Method for assessing operation risk of gas insulated metal enclosed switchgear |
| CN107563620A (en) * | 2017-08-21 | 2018-01-09 | 云南电网有限责任公司保山供电局 | A kind of integrated evaluating method based on equipment life-cycle information |
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Application publication date: 20150909 |