CN109145381A - A kind of probability distribution of power duration describes method and device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of probability distribution of power duration to describe method and device, the described method includes: going out the fluctuating power type of force data according to the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time, the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers is determined；According to the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, using the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers described in three parameter Burr fittings of distribution；The probability distribution of the power duration of each fluctuation is described by the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, technical solution provided by the invention, it can be with quantitative description power time domain probability nature, so that the random character of power is further appreciated and is grasped, promotes the precision of power output time series modeling.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of power generation, and in particular to a kind of probability distribution of power duration describes method and dress
It sets.
Background technique
China's new energy power generation technology sustained and rapid development, wind-electricity integration installed capacity increase rapidly.Due to wind-resources
Uncertain and Wind turbines itself operation characteristics, so that the output power of wind power plant has stochastic volatility, when extensive
After wind-electricity integration, the stochastic volatility of output power will bring significant impact to the planning of electric system and operation.
It is less to the probability distribution achievement of wind power duration at present, mainly using dead wind area to wind power
The duration of state carries out probability distribution description, describes wind power and persistently keeps the time of a certain power output level long
Degree, accordingly, it is desirable to provide a kind of probability distribution of power duration describes method.
Summary of the invention
The probability distribution that the present invention provides a kind of power duration describes method and device, and the purpose is to quantitative description function
Rate time domain probability nature, makes the random character of power be further appreciated and grasp, and promotes the precision of power output time series modeling.
The purpose of the present invention is adopt the following technical solutions realization:
A kind of probability distribution of power duration describes method, it is improved in that the described method includes:
Go out the fluctuating power type of force data according to the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time, determines each
The power duration respectively fluctuated in type fluctuating power；
According to the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, using each described in three parameter Burr fittings of distribution
The probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in type fluctuating power；
The power duration of each fluctuation is described by the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers
Probability distribution.
Preferably, the fluctuating power type of the plant stand history power output, comprising:
Work as PsIt is to go out fluctuation greatly that the history of plant stand, which goes out the fluctuating power type of force data, when > a, after normalized；
As b < PsWhen < a, after normalized the history of plant stand go out the fluctuating power type of force data be in go out Reeb
It is dynamic；
As c < PsIt is small Reeb out that the history of plant stand, which goes out the fluctuating power type of force data, when < b, after normalized
It is dynamic；
Work as PsIt is low fluctuation out that the history of plant stand, which goes out the fluctuating power type of force data, when < c, after normalized；
Wherein, PsGo out force data for the history of plant stand after normalized, a is first threshold, and b is second threshold, c
Three threshold values, a > b > c.
Further, the history of plant stand goes out force data P after determining normalized as the following formulas:
Wherein, PtGo out force data, P for the history of plant standinstallFor installed capacity.
Preferably, the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers of the determination, comprising:
The power duration T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power is determined as the following formulaij:
Wherein,The finish time fluctuated for j-th in the i-th class fluctuating power,For jth in the i-th class fluctuating power
The initial time of a fluctuation, i ∈ (1, p), p are that the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time goes out the wave of force data
Dynamic power type total number, j ∈ (1, q), q are the total number fluctuated in the i-th class fluctuating power.
Preferably, described according to the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, using three parameter Burr points
Cloth is fitted the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, comprising:
It is fitted the probability-distribution function f (T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power as the following formulaij):
Wherein, TijFor the duration of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power, αiIt is quasi- for the shape of the i-th class fluctuating power
Close parameter, kiFor the first scale fitting parameter of the i-th class fluctuating power, βiGinseng is fitted for the second scale of the i-th class fluctuating power
Number.
A kind of probability distribution of power duration describes device, and spy thes improvement is that, described device includes:
Determination unit, for going out the fluctuation function of force data according to the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time
Rate type determines the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers；
Fitting unit, for according to the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, using three parameter Burr
The probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers described in fitting of distribution；
Unit is described, describes each fluctuation for the probability-distribution function by respectively fluctuating in all types of fluctuating powers
The probability distribution of power duration.
Preferably, the determination unit, comprising:
First division module, for working as PsWhen > a, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuating power class of force data after normalized
Type is to go out fluctuation greatly；
Second division module, for working as b < PsWhen < a, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuation function of force data after normalized
Rate type goes out fluctuation in being；
Third division module, for working as c < PsWhen < b, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuation function of force data after normalized
Rate type is small fluctuation out；
4th division module, for working as PsWhen < c, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuating power class of force data after normalized
Type is low fluctuation out；
Wherein, PsGo out force data for the history of plant stand after normalized, a is first threshold, and b is second threshold, c
Three threshold values, a > b > c.
Further, the determination unit, further includes:
First determining module, is used for, and the history of plant stand goes out force data P after determining normalized as the following formulas:
Wherein, PtGo out force data, P for the history of plant standinstallFor installed capacity.
Preferably, the determination unit, comprising:
Second determining module, for determining the power duration T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power as the following formulaij:
Wherein,The finish time fluctuated for j-th in the i-th class fluctuating power,For jth in the i-th class fluctuating power
The initial time of a fluctuation, i ∈ (1, p), p are that the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time goes out the wave of force data
Dynamic power type total number, j ∈ (1, q), q are the total number fluctuated in the i-th class fluctuating power.
Preferably, the fitting unit, comprising:
It is fitted the probability-distribution function f (T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power as the following formulaij):
Wherein, TijFor the duration of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power, αiIt is quasi- for the shape of the i-th class fluctuating power
Close parameter, kiFor the first scale fitting parameter of the i-th class fluctuating power, βiGinseng is fitted for the second scale of the i-th class fluctuating power
Number.
Beneficial effects of the present invention:
Technical solution provided by the invention: force data is gone out according to the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time
Fluctuating power type, determine the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers；According in all types of fluctuating powers
The power duration respectively fluctuated, using the probability respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers described in three parameter Burr fittings of distribution point
Cloth function；The power duration of each fluctuation is described by the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers
Probability distribution can describe all kinds of by using the probability-distribution function of the three all types of fluctuating powers of parameter Burr fitting of distribution
The probability distribution of the power duration respectively fluctuated in type fluctuating power, so as to quantitative description power time domain probability nature,
So that the random character of power is further appreciated and is grasped, to preferably be utilized and control, promotes power output time series and build
The precision of mould.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart that a kind of probability distribution of power duration of the present invention describes method；
Fig. 2 is the duration Probability Distribution Fitting for going out k-th of fluctuation in fluctuation in embodiment provided by the invention greatly
Result figure；
Fig. 3 be in embodiment provided by the invention in go out fluctuation in k-th fluctuation duration Probability Distribution Fitting
Result figure；
Fig. 4 is the duration Probability Distribution Fitting of k-th of fluctuation in small fluctuation out in embodiment provided by the invention
Result figure；
Fig. 5 is the duration Probability Distribution Fitting of k-th of fluctuation in low fluctuation out in embodiment provided by the invention
Result figure；
Fig. 6 is the structural schematic diagram that a kind of probability distribution of power duration of the present invention describes device.
Specific embodiment
It elaborates with reference to the accompanying drawing to a specific embodiment of the invention.
In order to make the object, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiment of the invention clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention
In attached drawing, technical scheme in the embodiment of the invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment is
A part of the embodiment of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art
All other embodiment obtained without making creative work, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
A kind of probability distribution of power duration provided by the invention describes method, as shown in Figure 1, comprising:
101. going out the fluctuating power type of force data according to the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time, really
The power duration respectively fluctuated in fixed all types of fluctuating powers；
102. according to the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, using three parameter Burr fitting of distribution institutes
State the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers；
103. being continued by the power that the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers describes each fluctuation
The probability distribution of time.
Specifically, the step 101, comprising:
Work as PsIt is to go out fluctuation greatly that the history of plant stand, which goes out the fluctuating power type of force data, when > a, after normalized；
As b < PsWhen < a, after normalized the history of plant stand go out the fluctuating power type of force data be in go out Reeb
It is dynamic；
As c < PsIt is small Reeb out that the history of plant stand, which goes out the fluctuating power type of force data, when < b, after normalized
It is dynamic；
Work as PsIt is low fluctuation out that the history of plant stand, which goes out the fluctuating power type of force data, when < c, after normalized；
Wherein, PsGo out force data for the history of plant stand after normalized, a is first threshold, and b is second threshold, c
Three threshold values, a > b > c.
Such as: the length that history goes out force data is 1 year, sample frequency 15min, wherein first threshold a is 0.5, second
Threshold value b is 0.3, and third threshold value c is 0.05.
The fluctuating power type of the history power output in the time cycle after the normalized of plant stand is determined, it is thus necessary to determine that return
One changes that treated that history goes out force data, therefore:
Determine that the history of plant stand after normalized goes out force data Ps:
Wherein, PtGo out force data, P for the history of plant standinstallFor installed capacity.
Determine the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, comprising:
The power duration T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power is determined as the following formulaij:
Wherein,The finish time fluctuated for j-th in the i-th class fluctuating power,For jth in the i-th class fluctuating power
The initial time of a fluctuation, i ∈ (1, p), p are that the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time goes out the wave of force data
Dynamic power type total number, j ∈ (1, q), q are the total number fluctuated in the i-th class fluctuating power.
The step 102, comprising:
It is fitted the probability-distribution function f (T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power as the following formulaij):
Wherein, TijFor the duration of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power, αiIt is quasi- for the shape of the i-th class fluctuating power
Close parameter, kiFor the first scale fitting parameter of the i-th class fluctuating power, βiGinseng is fitted for the second scale of the i-th class fluctuating power
Number.
For example, as shown in Fig. 2, scheming for k-th of duration Probability Distribution Fitting result figure fluctuated in big fluctuation out
3 be in go out fluctuation in k-th fluctuation duration Probability Distribution Fitting result figure, Fig. 4 be it is small go out fluctuation in k-th of wave
Dynamic duration Probability Distribution Fitting result figure, Fig. 5 are that the duration probability distribution of k-th of fluctuation in low fluctuation out is quasi-
Close result figure.
It can be verified by following step in all types of fluctuating powers obtained by the above method of the invention and respectively be fluctuated
Probability-distribution function validity, specifically include:
Actual measurement fitting data is determined as the following formula
Residual sum of squares (RSS) W is determined as the following formulaSSE:
Root mean square W is determined as the following formulaRMSE:
Coefficient W is determined as the following formulaR-square:
Wherein, f () is the probability-distribution function of all types of fluctuating powers,It is fluctuated for the i-th class in measured data
The duration of k-th of fluctuation is divided into n equal portions in power, wherein m parts of intermediate time, m ∈ (1, n), yikmTo survey number
The duration of k-th of fluctuation is divided into n equal portions in the i-th class fluctuating power in, wherein m parts of corresponding probability density,
For in measured data in the i-th class fluctuating power k-th fluctuation duration corresponding probability density average；
Work as WSSE< 0.5, WRMSE< 0.1, WR-squareWhen > 0.98, the probability-distribution function of all types of fluctuating powers
Effectively.
A kind of probability distribution of power duration provided by the invention describes method, can be applicable to wind power station and the sun
Energy power station, the probability distribution of the power duration for describing wind power station and solar power station.
Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a kind of probability distribution of power duration to describe device, such as Fig. 6
Shown, described device includes:
Determination unit, for going out the fluctuation function of force data according to the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time
Rate type determines the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers；
Fitting unit, for according to the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, using three parameter Burr
The probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers described in fitting of distribution；
Unit is described, describes each fluctuation for the probability-distribution function by respectively fluctuating in all types of fluctuating powers
The probability distribution of power duration.
Preferably, the determination unit, comprising:
First division module, for working as PsWhen > a, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuating power class of force data after normalized
Type is to go out fluctuation greatly；
Second division module, for working as b < PsWhen < a, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuation function of force data after normalized
Rate type goes out fluctuation in being；
Third division module, for working as c < PsWhen < b, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuation function of force data after normalized
Rate type is small fluctuation out；
4th division module, for working as PsWhen < c, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuating power class of force data after normalized
Type is low fluctuation out；
Wherein, PsGo out force data for the history of plant stand after normalized, a is first threshold, and b is second threshold, c
Three threshold values, a > b > c.
Further, the determination unit, further includes:
First determining module, is used for, and the history of plant stand goes out force data P after determining normalized as the following formulas:
Wherein, PtGo out force data, P for the history of plant standinstallFor installed capacity.
Preferably, the determination unit, comprising:
Second determining module, for determining the power duration T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power as the following formulaij:
Wherein,The finish time fluctuated for j-th in the i-th class fluctuating power,For jth in the i-th class fluctuating power
The initial time of a fluctuation, i ∈ (1, p), p are that the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time goes out the wave of force data
Dynamic power type total number, j ∈ (1, q), q are the total number fluctuated in the i-th class fluctuating power.
Preferably, the fitting unit, comprising:
It is fitted the probability-distribution function f (T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power as the following formulaij):
Wherein, TijFor the duration of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power, αiIt is quasi- for the shape of the i-th class fluctuating power
Close parameter, kiFor the first scale fitting parameter of the i-th class fluctuating power, βiGinseng is fitted for the second scale of the i-th class fluctuating power
Number.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can provide as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or reality combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the application
Apply the form of example.Moreover, it wherein includes the computer of computer usable program code that the application, which can be used in one or more,
The computer program implemented in usable storage medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.) produces
The form of product.
The application is referring to method, the process of equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present application
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that every one stream in flowchart and/or the block diagram can be realized by computer program instructions
The combination of process and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.It can provide these computer programs
Instruct the processor of general purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices to produce
A raw machine, so that being generated by the instruction that computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices execute for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, is able to guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works, so that it includes referring to that instruction stored in the computer readable memory, which generates,
Enable the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one box of one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that counting
Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, thus in computer or
The instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
Finally it should be noted that: the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical scheme of the present invention and are not intended to be limiting thereof, to the greatest extent
Invention is explained in detail referring to above-described embodiment for pipe, it should be understood by those ordinary skilled in the art that: still
It can be with modifications or equivalent substitutions are made to specific embodiments of the invention, and without departing from any of spirit and scope of the invention
Modification or equivalent replacement, should all cover within the scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of probability distribution of power duration describes method, which is characterized in that the described method includes:
The fluctuating power type for going out force data according to the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time, determines all types of
The power duration respectively fluctuated in fluctuating power；
According to the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers, using all types of described in three parameter Burr fittings of distribution
The probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in fluctuating power；
The general of the power duration of each fluctuation is described by the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers
Rate distribution.
2. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the fluctuating power type of the plant stand history power output, comprising:
Work as PsIt is to go out fluctuation greatly that the history of plant stand, which goes out the fluctuating power type of force data, when > a, after normalized；
As b < PsWhen < a, after normalized the history of plant stand go out the fluctuating power type of force data be in go out fluctuation；
As c < PsIt is small fluctuation out that the history of plant stand, which goes out the fluctuating power type of force data, when < b, after normalized；
Work as PsIt is low fluctuation out that the history of plant stand, which goes out the fluctuating power type of force data, when < c, after normalized；
Wherein, PsGo out force data for the history of plant stand after normalized, a is first threshold, and b is second threshold, and c is third threshold
Value, a > b > c.
3. method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that determine the history power output number of plant stand after normalized as the following formula
According to Ps:
Wherein, PtGo out force data, P for the history of plant standinstallFor installed capacity.
4. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the power respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers of determination is held
The continuous time, comprising:
The power duration T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power is determined as the following formulaij:
Wherein,The finish time fluctuated for j-th in the i-th class fluctuating power,For j-th of wave in the i-th class fluctuating power
Dynamic initial time, i ∈ (1, p), p are that the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time goes out the fluctuation function of force data
Rate type total number, j ∈ (1, q), q are the total number fluctuated in the i-th class fluctuating power.
5. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that described to be held according to the power respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers
The continuous time, using the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers described in three parameter Burr fittings of distribution, comprising:
It is fitted the probability-distribution function f (T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power as the following formulaij):
Wherein, TijFor the duration of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power, αiJoin for the form fit of the i-th class fluctuating power
Number, kiFor the first scale fitting parameter of the i-th class fluctuating power, βiFor the second scale fitting parameter of the i-th class fluctuating power.
6. a kind of probability distribution of power duration describes device, which is characterized in that described device includes:
Determination unit, for going out the fluctuating power class of force data according to the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time
Type determines the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers；
Fitting unit, for being distributed using three parameter Burr according to the power duration respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers
It is fitted the probability-distribution function respectively fluctuated in all types of fluctuating powers；
Unit is described, the power of each fluctuation is described for the probability-distribution function by respectively fluctuating in all types of fluctuating powers
The probability distribution of duration.
7. device as claimed in claim 6, which is characterized in that the determination unit, comprising:
First division module, for working as PsWhen > a, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuating power type of force data and is after normalized
Go out fluctuation greatly；
Second division module, for working as b < PsWhen < a, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuating power type of force data after normalized
Go out fluctuation in；
Third division module, for working as c < PsWhen < b, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuating power type of force data after normalized
For small fluctuation out；
4th division module, for working as PsWhen < c, the history of plant stand goes out the fluctuating power type of force data and is after normalized
Low fluctuation out；
Wherein, PsGo out force data for the history of plant stand after normalized, a is first threshold, and b is second threshold, and c is third threshold
Value, a > b > c.
8. device as claimed in claim 7, which is characterized in that the determination unit, further includes:
Determining module is used for, and the history of plant stand goes out force data P after determining normalized as the following formulas:
Wherein, PtGo out force data, P for the history of plant standinstallFor installed capacity.
9. device as claimed in claim 6, which is characterized in that the determination unit, comprising:
Second determining module, for determining the power duration T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power as the following formulaij:
Wherein,The finish time fluctuated for j-th in the i-th class fluctuating power,For j-th of wave in the i-th class fluctuating power
Dynamic initial time, i ∈ (1, p), p are that the history of plant stand after normalized in preset period of time goes out the fluctuation function of force data
Rate type total number, j ∈ (1, q), q are the total number fluctuated in the i-th class fluctuating power.
10. device as claimed in claim 6, which is characterized in that the fitting unit, comprising:
It is fitted the probability-distribution function f (T of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power as the following formulaij):
Wherein, TijFor the duration of j-th of fluctuation in the i-th class fluctuating power, αiJoin for the form fit of the i-th class fluctuating power
Number, kiFor the first scale fitting parameter of the i-th class fluctuating power, βiFor the second scale fitting parameter of the i-th class fluctuating power.
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| CN201810809568.6A CN109145381A (en) | 2018-07-23 | 2018-07-23 | A kind of probability distribution of power duration describes method and device |
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