CN109066791B - Method and device for determining wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence - Google Patents
Method and device for determining wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a device for determining a wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, which are characterized by firstly obtaining operation data of a power system, and then inputting the operation data into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence; the new energy time sequence production model is constructed according to the actual wind abandoning sequence of the wind power. The invention provides evaluation indexes of characteristics of the wind power abandoned wind sequence, including abandoned wind period distribution, abandoned wind duration time and abandoned wind duration electric quantity, and provides a way for determining a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence; the method finally realizes the determination of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, analyzes the characteristics of high-proportion wind power abandoning in the future planning level year, further analyzes the reasons of wind abandoning and electricity limiting and provides a basis for solving the problems of wind abandoning and electricity limiting.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of new energy, in particular to a method and a device for determining a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence.
Background
With the maturity of wind power penetration technology, the development of wind resources is more and more emphasized by the nation, and large-scale wind power plants are gradually connected to the grid; wind power has so far become the trend of new energy power generation technology; however, due to the large-scale rapid and unordered operation of wind power, the limited wind power receiving capability of the power grid caused by the lag in power grid construction, insufficient power grid peak shaving capability, instability of wind power output and the limitation of rapid adjustable power supply capacity in the power grid, the wind power abandoning condition is more and more serious.
Due to the instability and randomness of wind power, the difficulty in counting the wind power abandoning amount of wind power is increased, the wind power abandoning amount of wind has a deviation problem, the accuracy of wind power abandoning amount of wind statistics can greatly influence future wind power research and development, and the optimal utilization of wind power resources is not facilitated. The statistics of the abandoned wind electric quantity is the basis for making wind power and power grid planning and is also an important basis for establishing wind power abandoned wind principles and specifications; at present, domestic methods for counting abandoned wind electricity mainly comprise four methods: a template method, a prediction curve method, a planning curve method and a power curve method.
The continuous and rapid development of new energy far exceeds the bearing capacity of a power grid, the new energy consumption conflict is very prominent, and the wind and electricity abandonment amount tends to increase year by year. The Chinese national grid dispatching range (not including Monte) in 2012 cumulatively abandons wind power for more than 140 hundred million kilowatt-hours; influenced by factors such as wind resource reduction, power grid construction and the like, the improvement is obvious in 2014 in 2013; the wind power is saved up to 269 hundred million kilowatt hours in 2015, and the equivalent rate is increased by 178%. In a regional view, the northwest wind abandon of China is the most serious (accounting for 60% of the total wind abandon amount), and the northeast wind abandon is the most serious (accounting for 30% of the total wind abandon amount). 74% of the wind curtailment is concentrated in four provinces of Gansu, Xinjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, wherein the wind curtailment proportion of Gansu, Xinjiang and Jilin is more than 30%. The problem of wind abandonment is increasingly prominent, and the research on the characteristics of wind abandonment is becoming urgent.
At present, research on new energy is mainly focused on wind power abandoned wind, and determination of a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence is lacked, so that the reason for wind abandon and electricity limiting cannot be further analyzed, and the problem of wind abandon and electricity limiting is greatly hindered.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects that the reason for wind abandon and electricity limit cannot be further analyzed and the problem of wind abandon and electricity limit cannot be solved due to lack of evaluation of wind power wind abandon characteristics in the prior art, the invention provides a method and a device for determining a wind power simulation wind abandon sequence, wherein firstly, operation data of a power system is obtained, and then the operation data is input into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain the wind power simulation wind abandon sequence; the invention provides a determination method of a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, and provides a basis for further analyzing abandoned wind power limiting reasons and solving abandoned wind power limiting problems.
In order to achieve the purpose of the invention, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
on one hand, the invention provides a method for determining a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring operation data of a power system;
inputting the operation data into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence;
and the new energy time sequence production model is constructed based on a set wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system and a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence.
The construction of the new energy time sequence production model comprises the following steps:
acquiring a historical wind power theoretical power series and a wind power actual output series;
the wind power theoretical power sequence and the wind power actual output sequence are subjected to subtraction to obtain a wind power actual wind abandoning sequence;
obtaining each evaluation index value of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence based on a preset wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
simulating to obtain a wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence based on a preset thermal power unit model, a preset hydroelectric power unit model, a pumped storage power station model, a load model, a power grid structure model and a wind power theoretical power sequence model;
obtaining various evaluation index values of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on the wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
comparing differences of evaluation indexes of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, if the differences are the same, improving the installed wind ratio of the wind power, and determining the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence with the increased installed wind ratio according to a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model; and if not, adjusting the operation data, continuing to simulate to obtain a wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, and calculating all evaluation index values of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence until all evaluation index values of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence and the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence are the same.
The acquiring of the wind power theoretical power sequence and the wind power actual output sequence comprises the following steps:
acquiring wind measurement data of a wind power plant, and calculating theoretical power of the wind power plant at different moments based on a template machine method, a theoretical power extrapolation method or a cabin wind speed method according to the wind measurement data to form a wind power theoretical power sequence;
and acquiring actual output of the wind power plant at different moments to form a wind power actual output sequence.
The acquisition of the operating data of the power system comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining thermal power generating unit operation data, hydroelectric generating unit operation data, pumped storage power station operation data, load data and power grid structure data.
The evaluation indexes of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence comprise wind power actual wind abandoning time period distribution, wind power actual wind abandoning duration and wind power actual wind abandoning duration electric quantity;
calculating the actual wind abandoning time period distribution of the wind power according to the following formula:
f pt (t)＝N pt (t)/N
wherein f is pt (t) represents the actual wind abandon period distribution of the wind power at the moment t, N pt (t) representing the frequency of the actual wind power curtailment at the moment t, and N representing the total frequency of the actual wind power curtailment;
calculating the actual wind abandoning duration of the wind power according to the following formula:
T last ＝max{k}P c (t)×P c (t+1)×······×P c (t+k-1)≠0&P c (t)×P c (t-1)＝0
wherein, T last Representing the actual wind abandon duration of the wind power, P c (t) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at time t, P c (t +1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of t +1, P c (t-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power P of the wind power at the time t-1 c (t + k-1) represents the actual wind abandoning power of the wind power at the time of t + k-1, and k represents the value of the actual wind abandoning duration time of the wind power;
calculating the actual abandoned wind continuous electric quantity of the wind power according to the following formula:
wherein E is c (t) represents the actual wind abandon continuous electric quantity at the moment of t, P c And (T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of T + i-1, and delta T represents a time interval.
The evaluation indexes of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence comprise wind power simulation abandoned wind period distribution, wind power simulation abandoned wind duration time and wind power simulation abandoned wind duration electric quantity;
calculating the wind power simulation wind abandoning time period distribution according to the following formula:
f′ pt (t)＝N′ pt (t)/N′
wherein, f' pt (t) represents wind power simulation wind abandoning period distribution at time t, N' pt (t) representing the frequency of wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the moment t, and N' representing the total frequency of wind power simulation abandoned wind power;
calculating the duration of the wind power simulation abandoned wind according to the following formula:
T′ last ＝max{k′}P c ′(t)×P c ′(t+1)×······×P c ′(t+k-1)≠0&P c ′(t)×P c ′(t-1)＝0
wherein, T' last Representing wind-power simulated abandoned wind duration, P c ' (t) represents the wind-power simulated curtailed wind power at time t, P c ' (t +1) denotes wind power at time t +1Simulating abandoned wind power, P c ' (t-1) represents the wind power simulated curtailed wind power at time t-1, P c '(t + k-1) represents wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the time of t + k-1, and k' represents the value of wind power simulation abandoned wind duration;
calculating the wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity according to the following formula:
wherein E is c ' (t) represents the wind power simulation wind curtailment continuous electric quantity at the time t, P c '(T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of T + i' -1, and Delta T represents a time interval.
On the other hand, the invention provides a device for determining a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, which comprises:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the operating data of the power system;
the simulation module is used for inputting the operation data into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence;
and the new energy time sequence production model is constructed based on a set wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system and a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence.
The apparatus further comprises a modeling module comprising:
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring a historical wind power theoretical power series and a wind power actual output series;
the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence determining unit is used for subtracting the wind power theoretical power sequence and the wind power actual output sequence to obtain a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence;
the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence evaluation index value determination unit is used for obtaining each evaluation index value of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence based on a preset wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence determining unit is used for simulating to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on a thermal power unit model, a hydroelectric power unit model, a pumped storage power station model, a load model, a power grid structure model and a wind power theoretical power sequence model which are preset;
the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence evaluation index value determination unit is used for obtaining various evaluation index values of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on the wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
the comparison unit is used for comparing differences of various evaluation indexes of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, if the differences are the same, the installed wind power ratio is improved, and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence with the increased installed wind ratio is determined according to a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model; and if not, adjusting the operation data, continuing to simulate to obtain a wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, and calculating all evaluation index values of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence until all evaluation index values of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence and the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence are the same.
The acquisition unit includes:
the wind power theoretical power sequence determining unit is used for acquiring wind measurement data of a wind power plant, calculating theoretical power of the wind power plant at different moments based on a template machine method, a theoretical power extrapolation method or a cabin wind speed method according to the wind measurement data, and forming a wind power theoretical power sequence;
and the wind power actual output sequence determining unit is used for acquiring actual output of the wind power plant at different moments to form a wind power actual output sequence.
The acquisition module is specifically configured to:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining thermal power generating unit operation data, hydroelectric generating unit operation data, pumped storage power station operation data, load data and power grid structure data.
The wind power actual wind abandoning sequence evaluation index value determination unit is specifically used for:
and calculating evaluation indexes of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence, wherein the evaluation indexes of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence comprise wind power actual wind abandoning time period distribution, wind power actual wind abandoning duration time and wind power actual wind abandoning continuous electric quantity.
The actual wind abandoning period distribution of the wind power is calculated according to the following formula:
f pt (t)＝N pt (t)/N
wherein f is pt (t) represents the actual wind abandon period distribution of the wind power at the time t, N pt (t) representing the frequency of the actual wind power curtailment at the moment t, and N representing the total frequency of the actual wind power curtailment;
the actual wind abandoning duration of the wind power is calculated according to the following formula:
T last ＝max{k}P c (t)×P c (t+1)×······×P c (t+k-1)≠0&P c (t)×P c (t-1)＝0
wherein, T last Representing the actual wind abandon duration of the wind power, P c (t) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at time t, P c (t +1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of t +1, P c (t-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power P of the wind power at the time of t-1 c (t + k-1) represents the actual wind abandoning power of the wind power at the time of t + k-1, and k represents the value of the actual wind abandoning duration time of the wind power;
the actual abandoned wind continuous electric quantity of the wind power is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein E is c (t) represents the actual wind abandon continuous electric quantity at the moment t, P c And (T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of T + i-1, and delta T represents a time interval.
The wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence evaluation index value determination unit is specifically used for:
and calculating evaluation indexes of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, wherein the evaluation indexes of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence comprise wind power simulation wind abandoning time period distribution, wind power simulation wind abandoning duration time and wind power simulation wind abandoning duration electric quantity.
The wind power simulation wind abandoning period distribution is calculated according to the following formula:
f′ pt (t)＝N′ pt (t)/N′
wherein, f' pt (t) represents wind power simulation wind abandoning period distribution at time t, N' pt (t) represents wind power simulation abandoned wind power at time tThe frequency of the frequency, N' represents the total frequency of the occurrence of the wind power simulation abandoned wind power;
the duration of the wind power simulation abandoned wind is calculated according to the following formula:
T′ last ＝max{k′}P c ′(t)×P c ′(t+1)×······×P c ′(t+k-1)≠0&P c ′(t)×P c ′(t-1)＝0
wherein, T' last Represents the duration of wind curtailment simulation of wind power, P c ' (t) represents the wind-power simulated curtailed wind power at time t, P c ' (t +1) represents wind power simulated curtailed wind power at t +1 time, P c ' (t-1) represents the wind power simulated curtailed wind power at time t-1, P c '(t + k-1) represents the wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the moment of t + k-1, and k' represents the value of the wind power simulation abandoned wind duration;
the wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein E is c ' (t) represents the wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity at the time t, P c '(T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the moment of T + i' -1, and Delta T represents a time interval.
Compared with the closest prior art, the technical scheme provided by the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method for determining the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence comprises the steps of firstly obtaining operation data of a power system, and then inputting the operation data into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence; the new energy time sequence production model is constructed based on a set wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system and a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence, and the invention provides a determination method of a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, which provides a basis for further analyzing abandoned wind power limiting reasons and solving abandoned wind power limiting problems;
the device for determining the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence comprises an acquisition module and a simulation module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring the operation data of a power system; the simulation module is used for inputting the operation data into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence; the new energy time sequence production model is constructed on the basis of a set wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system and a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence, and the device for determining the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence provides a basis for further analyzing the reason of abandoned wind power limitation and solving the problem of abandoned wind power limitation;
the technical scheme provided by the invention provides evaluation indexes of wind power abandoned wind sequence characteristics, which comprise three categories of abandoned wind period distribution, abandoned wind duration time and abandoned wind continuous electric quantity, wherein the evaluation indexes of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence comprise wind power actual abandoned wind period distribution, wind power actual abandoned wind duration time and wind power actual abandoned wind continuous electric quantity, and the evaluation indexes of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence comprise wind power simulation abandoned wind period distribution, wind power simulation abandoned wind duration time and wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity, so that a qualitative and quantitative evaluation way is provided for the wind power abandoned wind sequence characteristics;
according to the technical scheme provided by the invention, the new energy time sequence production model adopts the wind power abandoned wind characteristics obtained by the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence to adjust, and respective evaluation indexes of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence are calculated, so that a foundation is laid for researching measures for consumption.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for determining a wind curtailment sequence of wind power simulation in an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for determining a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, a specific flow chart is shown as figure 1, and the specific process is as follows:
s101: acquiring operation data of a power system;
s102: inputting the operation data into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence;
the new energy time sequence production model is constructed based on a set wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system and a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence.
The construction of the new energy time sequence production model comprises the following steps:
acquiring a historical wind power theoretical power series and a wind power actual output series;
the wind power theoretical power sequence and the wind power actual output sequence are subjected to subtraction to obtain a wind power actual wind abandoning sequence;
obtaining each evaluation index value of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence based on a preset wind power abandoning sequence evaluation index system;
simulating to obtain a wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence based on a preset thermal power unit model, a preset hydroelectric power unit model, a pumped storage power station model, a load model, a power grid structure model and a wind power theoretical power sequence model;
obtaining various evaluation index values of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on the wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
comparing differences of evaluation indexes of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, if the differences are the same, improving the installed wind ratio of the wind power, and determining the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence with the increased installed wind ratio according to a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model; and if not, adjusting the running data, continuing to simulate to obtain a wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, and calculating all evaluation index values of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence until all evaluation index values of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence and the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence are the same.
The specific process of the obtained theoretical power sequence and the wind-power actual output sequence is as follows:
1) acquiring wind measurement data of a wind power plant, and calculating theoretical power of the wind power plant at different moments based on a template machine method, a theoretical power extrapolation method or a cabin wind speed method according to the wind measurement data to form a wind power theoretical power sequence;
2) and acquiring the actual output of the wind power plant at different moments to form a wind power actual output sequence.
In S101, the obtaining of the operation data of the power system includes:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining thermal power generating unit operation data, hydroelectric generating unit operation data, pumped storage power station operation data, load data and power grid structure data.
The constructed new energy time sequence production model comprises a thermal power unit model, a hydroelectric power unit model, a pumped storage and energy storage power station model, a load model, a power grid structure model and a wind-power theoretical power sequence model.
The evaluation indexes of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence comprise wind power actual wind abandoning time interval distribution, wind power actual wind abandoning duration and wind power actual wind abandoning continuous electric quantity; the specific calculation process is as follows:
calculating the actual wind abandoning time period distribution of the wind power according to the following formula:
f pt (t)＝N pt (t)/N
wherein f is pt (t) represents the actual wind abandon period distribution of the wind power at the moment t, N pt (t) representing the frequency of the actual wind power abandoning at the moment t, and N representing the total frequency of the actual wind power abandoning;
calculating the actual wind abandoning duration of the wind power according to the following formula:
T last ＝max{k}P c (t)×P c (t+1)×······×P c (t+k-1)≠0&P c (t)×P c (t-1)＝0
wherein, T last Represents the actual wind abandoning duration time, P c (t) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at time t, P c (t +1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of t +1, P c (t-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power P of the wind power at the time of t-1 c (t + k-1) represents the actual wind abandoning power of the wind power at the time of t + k-1, and k represents the value of the actual wind abandoning duration time of the wind power;
calculating the actual abandoned wind continuous electric quantity of the wind power according to the following formula:
wherein, E c (t) represents the actual wind abandon continuous electric quantity at the moment of t, P c And (T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of T + i-1, and delta T represents a time interval.
The evaluation indexes of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence comprise wind power simulation abandoned wind period distribution, wind power simulation abandoned wind duration time and wind power simulation abandoned wind duration electric quantity, and the specific calculation process is as follows:
calculating the wind power simulation abandoned wind period distribution according to the following formula:
f′ pt (t)＝N′ pt (t)/N′
wherein, f' pt (t) represents wind power simulated abandoned wind period distribution N 'at time t' pt (t) representing the frequency of wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the moment t, and N' representing the total frequency of the wind power simulation abandoned wind power;
calculating the duration of wind power simulation abandoned wind according to the following formula:
T′ last ＝max{k′}P c ′(t)×P c ′(t+1)×······×P c ′(t+k-1)≠0&P c ′(t)×P c ′(t-1)＝0
wherein, T' last Represents the duration of wind curtailment simulation of wind power, P c ' (t) represents the wind power simulated curtailed wind power at time t, P c ' (t +1) denotes the wind-power simulated curtailed wind power at time t +1, P c ' (t-1) represents wind power simulated curtailed wind power at t-1 time, P c '(t + k-1) represents the wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the moment of t + k-1, and k' represents the value of the wind power simulation abandoned wind duration;
calculating the wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity according to the following formula:
wherein E is c ' (t) represents the wind power simulation wind curtailment continuous electric quantity at the time t, P c '(T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of T + i' -1, and Delta T represents a time interval.
In the construction process of the new energy time sequence production model, specifically, the evaluation indexes of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence are compared, and if f is the case pt (t)＝f′ pt (t)、T last ＝T′ last And E c (t)＝E c ' (t), the wind power abandoned wind sequence conforms to a set threshold value, the installed wind ratio of the wind power is increased, and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence with the increased installed wind ratio is determined according to a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model; and if not, adjusting the operating data, continuing to simulate to obtain a wind power simulated wind abandoning sequence, and calculating various evaluation index values of the wind power simulated wind abandoning sequence until the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence is the same as the various evaluation index values of the wind power simulated wind abandoning sequence, namely until the wind power actual wind abandoning time interval distribution is equal to the wind power simulated wind abandoning time interval distribution, the wind power actual wind abandoning duration is equal to the wind power simulated wind abandoning duration, and the wind power actual wind abandoning duration electric quantity is equal to the wind power simulated wind abandoning duration electric quantity.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present invention further provides a device for determining a wind curtailment sequence for wind power simulation, which includes an acquisition module simulation module, and the following respectively introduces specific functions of the above modules:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the operating data of the power system;
the simulation module is used for inputting the operation data into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence; and constructing a new energy time sequence production model based on a set wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system and a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence.
The device provided by the embodiment of the invention also comprises a modeling module, wherein the modeling module comprises:
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring a historical wind power theoretical power series and a wind power actual output series;
the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence determining unit is used for subtracting the wind power theoretical power sequence and the wind power actual output sequence to obtain a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence;
the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence evaluation index value determination unit is used for obtaining each evaluation index value of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence based on a preset wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence determining unit is used for simulating to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on a thermal power unit model, a hydroelectric power unit model, a pumped storage power station model, a load model, a power grid structure model and a wind power theoretical power sequence model which are preset;
the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence evaluation index value determination unit is used for obtaining various evaluation index values of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on the wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
the comparison unit is used for comparing differences of evaluation indexes of the actual wind abandoning sequence and the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, if the actual wind abandoning sequence and the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence are the same, improving the installed wind power ratio, and determining the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence with the increased installed wind ratio according to a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model; and if not, adjusting the running data, continuing to simulate to obtain a wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, and calculating all evaluation index values of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence until all evaluation index values of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence and the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence are the same.
The acquisition unit includes:
the wind power theoretical power sequence determining unit is used for acquiring wind measurement data of the wind power plant, calculating theoretical power of the wind power plant at different moments based on a template computer method, a theoretical power extrapolation method or a cabin wind speed method according to the wind measurement data, and forming a wind power theoretical power sequence;
and the wind power actual output sequence determining unit is used for acquiring actual output of the wind power plant at different moments to form a wind power actual output sequence.
The acquisition module is specifically configured to:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining thermal power generating unit operation data, hydroelectric generating unit operation data, pumped storage power station operation data, load data and power grid structure data.
The evaluation index of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence is calculated by the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence evaluation index value determination unit, and the evaluation index of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence comprises wind power actual abandoned wind period distribution, wind power actual abandoned wind duration time and wind power actual abandoned wind duration electric quantity.
The actual wind abandoning period distribution of the wind power is calculated according to the following formula:
f pt (t)＝N pt (t)/N
wherein f is pt (t) represents the actual wind abandon period distribution of the wind power at the time t, N pt (t) representing the frequency of the actual wind power abandoning at the moment t, and N representing the total frequency of the actual wind power abandoning;
the actual wind abandoning duration of the wind power is calculated according to the following formula:
T last ＝max{k}P c (t)×P c (t+1)×······×P c (t+k-1)≠0&P c (t)×P c (t-1)＝0
wherein, T last Representing the actual wind abandon duration of the wind power, P c (t) represents the actual wind curtailment power P of the wind power at the moment t c (t +1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of t +1, P c (t-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power P of the wind power at the time of t-1 c (t + k-1) represents the actual wind abandoning power of the wind power at the time of t + k-1, and k represents the value of the actual wind abandoning duration time of the wind power;
the actual abandoned wind continuous electric quantity of the wind power is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, E c (t) represents the actual wind abandon continuous electric quantity at the moment t, P c And (T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of T + i-1, and delta T represents a time interval.
The evaluation index of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence is calculated by the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence evaluation index value determination unit, and the evaluation index of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence comprises wind power simulation wind abandoning period distribution, wind power simulation wind abandoning duration and wind power simulation wind abandoning duration electric quantity.
The wind power simulation wind abandoning period distribution is calculated according to the following formula:
f′ pt (t)＝N′ pt (t)/N′
wherein, f' pt (t) represents wind power simulation wind abandoning period distribution at time t, N' pt (t) represents the frequency of wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the moment t, and N' represents the total frequency of wind power simulation abandoned wind power；
The duration of the wind power simulation abandoned wind is calculated according to the following formula:
T′ last ＝max{k′}P c ′(t)×P c ′(t+1)×······×P c ′(t+k-1)≠0&P c ′(t)×P c ′(t-1)＝0
wherein, T' last Representing wind-power simulated abandoned wind duration, P c ' (t) represents the wind-power simulated curtailed wind power at time t, P c ' (t +1) represents wind power simulated curtailed wind power at t +1 time, P c ' (t-1) represents the wind power simulated curtailed wind power at time t-1, P c '(t + k-1) represents the wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the moment of t + k-1, and k' represents the value of the wind power simulation abandoned wind duration;
the wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein E is c ' (t) represents the wind power simulation wind curtailment continuous electric quantity at the time t, P c '(T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the moment of T + i' -1, and Delta T represents a time interval.
3) The comparison unit is specifically configured to:
comparing the evaluation index of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence with the evaluation index of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, if f pt (t)＝f′ pt (t)、T last ＝T′ last And E c (t)＝E c (t), the wind power abandoned wind sequence meets a set threshold value, the installed wind power ratio is improved, and the wind power simulated abandoned wind sequence with the installed wind ratio improved is determined according to a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model; otherwise, adjusting the operation data, continuing to simulate to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, and calculating various evaluation index values of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence until the evaluation index values of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence are the same, namely until the distribution of the wind power actual abandoned wind period is equal to the distribution of the wind power simulation abandoned wind period, and the duration of the wind power actual abandoned wind is equal to the distribution of the wind power modelAnd the wind power actual wind abandoning continuous electric quantity is equal to the wind power simulated wind abandoning continuous electric quantity.
For convenience of description, each part of the above-described apparatus is separately described as being functionally divided into various modules or units. Of course, the functionality of the various modules or units may be implemented in the same one or more pieces of software or hardware when implementing the present application.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and so forth) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and those skilled in the art can make modifications or equivalent substitutions to the specific embodiments of the present invention with reference to the above embodiments, and any modifications or equivalent substitutions which do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention are within the scope of the claims of the present invention as filed in the application.
Claims (10)
1. A method for determining a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring operation data of a power system;
inputting the operation data into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence;
the new energy time sequence production model is constructed based on a set wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system and a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence;
the construction of the new energy time sequence production model comprises the following steps:
acquiring a historical wind power theoretical power sequence and a wind power actual output sequence;
the wind power theoretical power sequence and the wind power actual output sequence are subjected to subtraction to obtain a wind power actual wind abandoning sequence;
obtaining each evaluation index value of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence based on a preset wind power abandoning sequence evaluation index system;
simulating to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on a thermal power unit model, a hydroelectric power unit model, a pumped storage power station model, a load model, a power grid structure model and a wind power theoretical power sequence model which are preset;
obtaining various evaluation index values of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on the wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
comparing differences of evaluation indexes of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, if the differences are the same, improving the installed wind ratio of the wind power, and determining the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence with the increased installed wind ratio according to a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model; otherwise, adjusting the operation data, continuing to simulate to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, and calculating various evaluation index values of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence until the evaluation index values of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence are the same;
the evaluation indexes of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence comprise wind power actual wind abandoning time period distribution, wind power actual wind abandoning duration and wind power actual wind abandoning duration electric quantity;
calculating the actual wind abandoning time period distribution of the wind power according to the following formula:
f pt (t)＝N pt (t)/N
wherein f is pt (t) represents the actual wind abandon period distribution of the wind power at the moment t, N pt (t) representing the frequency of the actual wind power curtailment at the moment t, and N representing the total frequency of the actual wind power curtailment;
calculating the actual wind abandoning duration of the wind power according to the following formula:
T last ＝max{k}P c (t)×P c (t+1)×……×P c (t+k-1)≠0&P c (t)×P c (t-1)＝0
wherein, T last Representing the actual wind abandon duration of the wind power, P c (t) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at time t, P c (t +1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of t +1, P c (t-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power P of the wind power at the time t-1 c (t + k-1) represents the actual wind abandoning power of the wind power at the time of t + k-1, and k represents the value of the actual wind abandoning duration time of the wind power;
calculating the actual wind abandoning continuous electric quantity of the wind power according to the following formula:
wherein E is c (t) represents the actual wind abandon continuous electric quantity at the moment of t, P c (T + i-1) represents the actual wind power abandoning power of the wind power at the time of T + i-1, and delta T represents a time interval;
the evaluation indexes of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence comprise wind power simulation abandoned wind period distribution, wind power simulation abandoned wind duration time and wind power simulation abandoned wind duration electric quantity;
calculating the wind power simulation wind abandoning time period distribution according to the following formula:
f′ pt (t)＝N′ pt (t)/N′
wherein, f' pt (t) represents wind power simulation wind abandoning period distribution at time t, N' pt (t) representing the frequency of wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the moment t, and N' representing the total frequency of wind power simulation abandoned wind power;
calculating the duration of the wind power simulated abandoned wind according to the following formula:
T′ last ＝max{k′}P′ c (t)×P′ c (t+1)×……×P′ c (t+k-1)≠0&P′ c (t)×P′ c (t-1)＝0
wherein, T' last Representing wind power simulation abandoned wind duration time, P' c (t) represents wind power simulated abandoned wind power, P 'at time t' c (t +1) represents wind power simulation abandoned wind power at t +1 moment, P' c (t-1) represents wind power simulated abandoned wind power, P 'at t-1 moment' c (t + k-1) represents wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the t + k-1 moment, and k' represents the value of wind power simulation abandoned wind duration;
calculating the wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity according to the following formula:
wherein, E c ' (t) represents the wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity at the time t, P c ' (T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of T + i-1, and Delta T tableShowing the time interval.
2. The method for determining the wind power simulated wind curtailment sequence according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the wind power theoretical power sequence and the wind power actual output sequence comprises:
acquiring wind measurement data of a wind power plant, and calculating theoretical power of the wind power plant at different moments based on a template machine method, a theoretical power extrapolation method or a cabin wind speed method according to the wind measurement data to form a wind power theoretical power sequence;
and acquiring actual output of the wind power plant at different moments to form a wind power actual output sequence.
3. The method for determining the wind power simulation wind curtailment sequence according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the operation data of the power system comprises:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining thermal power generating unit operation data, hydroelectric generating unit operation data, pumped storage power station operation data, load data and power grid structure data.
4. The utility model provides a wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandons wind sequence's confirming device which characterized in that includes:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the operating data of the power system;
the simulation module is used for inputting the operation data into a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence;
the new energy time sequence production model is constructed based on a set wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system and a wind power actual abandoned wind sequence;
the apparatus further comprises a modeling module comprising:
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring a historical wind power theoretical power sequence and a wind power actual output sequence;
the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence determining unit is used for subtracting the wind power theoretical power sequence and the wind power actual output sequence to obtain a wind power actual wind abandoning sequence;
the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence evaluation index value determination unit is used for obtaining each evaluation index value of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence based on a preset wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence determination unit is used for simulating to obtain a wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on a preset thermal power unit model, a preset hydroelectric power unit model, a pumped storage power station model, a load model, a power grid structure model and a wind power theoretical power sequence model;
the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence evaluation index value determination unit is used for obtaining various evaluation index values of the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence based on the wind power abandoned wind sequence evaluation index system;
the comparison unit is used for comparing differences of various evaluation indexes of the wind power actual abandoned wind sequence and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence, if the differences are the same, the installed wind power ratio is improved, and the wind power simulation abandoned wind sequence with the increased installed wind ratio is determined according to a pre-constructed new energy time sequence production model; and if not, adjusting the operation data, continuing to simulate to obtain a wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, and calculating all evaluation index values of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence until all evaluation index values of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence and the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence are the same.
5. The device for determining the wind curtailment sequence for the wind power simulation as set forth in claim 4, wherein the obtaining unit comprises:
the wind power theoretical power sequence determining unit is used for acquiring wind measurement data of the wind power plant, calculating theoretical power of the wind power plant at different moments based on a template computer method, a theoretical power extrapolation method or a cabin wind speed method according to the wind measurement data, and forming a wind power theoretical power sequence;
and the wind power actual output sequence determining unit is used for acquiring actual output of the wind power plant at different moments to form a wind power actual output sequence.
6. The device for determining the wind curtailment sequence for the wind power simulation according to claim 4, wherein the obtaining module is specifically configured to:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining thermal power generating unit operation data, hydroelectric generating unit operation data, pumped storage power station operation data, load data and power grid structure data.
7. The device for determining the wind power simulation wind curtailment sequence according to claim 4, wherein the wind power actual curtailment sequence evaluation index value determination unit is specifically configured to:
and calculating evaluation indexes of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence, wherein the evaluation indexes of the wind power actual wind abandoning sequence comprise wind power actual wind abandoning time period distribution, wind power actual wind abandoning duration time and wind power actual wind abandoning continuous electric quantity.
8. The device for determining the wind power simulation wind curtailment sequence according to claim 7, wherein the wind power actual wind curtailment time period distribution is calculated according to the following formula:
f pt (t)＝N pt (t)/N
wherein, f pt (t) represents the actual wind abandon period distribution of the wind power at the time t, N pt (t) representing the frequency of the actual wind power curtailment at the moment t, and N representing the total frequency of the actual wind power curtailment;
the actual wind abandoning duration of the wind power is calculated according to the following formula:
T last ＝max{k}P c (t)×P c (t+1)×……×P c (t+k-1)≠0&P c (t)×P c (t-1)＝0
wherein, T last Representing the actual wind abandon duration of the wind power, P c (t) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at time t, P c (t +1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of t +1, P c (t-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power P of the wind power at the time t-1 c (t + k-1) represents the actual wind abandoning power of the wind power at the time of t + k-1, and k represents the value of the actual wind abandoning duration time of the wind power;
the actual abandoned wind continuous electric quantity of the wind power is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein, E c (t) represents the actual wind abandon continuous electric quantity at the moment t, P c And (T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of T + i-1, and delta T represents a time interval.
9. The device for determining the wind power simulation wind curtailment sequence according to claim 4, wherein the wind power simulation wind curtailment sequence evaluation index value determination unit is specifically configured to:
and calculating evaluation indexes of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence, wherein the evaluation indexes of the wind power simulation wind abandoning sequence comprise wind power simulation wind abandoning time period distribution, wind power simulation wind abandoning duration and wind power simulation wind abandoning duration electric quantity.
10. The device for determining the wind power simulation wind curtailment sequence according to claim 9, wherein the wind power simulation wind curtailment time period distribution is calculated according to the following formula:
f′ pt (t)＝N′ pt (t)/N′
wherein, f' pt (t) represents wind power simulation wind abandoning period distribution at time t, N' pt (t) representing the frequency of wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the moment t, and N' representing the total frequency of wind power simulation abandoned wind power;
the duration of the wind power simulated abandoned wind is calculated according to the following formula:
T′ last ＝max{k′}P′ c (t)×P′ c (t+1)×……×P′ c (t+k-1)≠0&P′ c (t)×P′ c (t-1)＝0
wherein, T' last Represents wind power simulation abandoned wind duration time P' c (t) wind power simulated curtailed wind power at time t, P' c (t +1) represents wind power simulation abandoned wind power at t +1 moment, P' c (t-1) represents wind power simulated abandoned wind power, P 'at t-1 moment' c (t + k-1) represents the wind power simulation abandoned wind power at the time of t + k-1, and k' represents the value of the wind power simulation abandoned wind duration;
the wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein E is c ' (t) represents the wind power simulation abandoned wind continuous electric quantity at the time t, P c ' (T + i-1) represents the actual wind curtailment power of the wind power at the time of T + i-1, and Delta T represents a time interval.
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