CN109066791A - A kind of determination method and apparatus of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence - Google Patents
A kind of determination method and apparatus of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of determination method and apparatus of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, first obtain the operation data of electric system, and the new energy timing that operation data input constructs in advance is then produced model, obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；New energy timing production model therein is according to the practical abandonment sequence construct of wind-powered electricity generation.The present invention gives the evaluation index for the wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence characteristic for continuing electricity including the distribution of abandonment period, abandonment duration and abandonment, the determination for simulating abandonment sequence for wind-powered electricity generation provides approach；The present invention finally realizes the determination of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, analyzes high proportion wind-powered electricity generation abandonment characteristic under future plan forcasted years, further analyzes abandonment and rations the power supply and reason and solves the problems, such as that abandonment offer of rationing the power supply is basic.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of new energy technologies, and in particular to a kind of the determination method and dress of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence
It sets.
Background technique
As wind power through-transmission technique is more and more mature, country increasingly payes attention to wind-resources development, large-scale wind power
Field is gradually grid-connected；So far, wind-powered electricity generation has become the trend of new energy power generation technology；However it is extensive fast due to wind-powered electricity generation
Speed is unordered to put into operation, power grid construction lag, the unstability of peak load regulation network scarce capacity, wind power output and quick in power grid
The limitation of adjustable source capacity causes power grid limited to the ability for receiving wind-powered electricity generation, causes abandonment situation increasingly severe.
Due to the unstability and randomness of wind-powered electricity generation, cause to increase the statistics difficulty of wind-powered electricity generation abandonment electricity, so that abandonment
There are offset issue, the accuracy of abandonment electricity statistics will research and develop the following wind-powered electricity generation to be produced a very large impact electricity, is unfavorable for wind-powered electricity generation
The optimum use of resource.The statistics of abandonment electricity is to carry out the basis of wind-powered electricity generation and Electric Power Network Planning, and formulate wind-powered electricity generation abandonment original
Then with the important evidence of specification；Currently, the statistical method of domestic abandonment electricity mainly includes four kinds: template processing machine method, prediction curve
Method, Plan Curve method and power curve method.
Considerably beyond power grid bearing capacity, new energy consumption contradiction is very prominent for the sustained and rapid development of new energy,
Abandonment electricity is in increase trend year by year.China national dispatching of power netwoks range (without west is covered) accumulative abandonment electricity is more than within 2012
14000000000 kilowatt hours；It is influenced by factors such as wind-resources decline, power grid constructions, 2013-2014 is clearly better；Abandonment electricity in 2015
Amount reaches 26,900,000,000 kilowatt hours, increases by 178% on a year-on-year basis.From the point of view of subregion, NW China abandonment the most seriously (accounts for total abandonment electricity
60%), northeast takes second place and (accounts for total abandonment electricity 30%).74% abandonment concentrates on Gansu, Xinjiang, Jilin, four provinces and regions of Liaoning,
Middle Gansu, Xinjiang and Jilin abandonment ratio are more than 30%.Abandonment problem becomes increasingly conspicuous, and research abandonment characteristic becomes increasingly anxious
Compel.
The research in terms of new energy is concentrated mainly on wind-powered electricity generation abandonment at present, lacks the determination of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, leads
Cause cannot further analyze abandonment and ration the power supply reason and to solve the problems, such as that abandonment is rationed the power supply hindered.
Summary of the invention
It is above-mentioned in the prior art because cannot further analyze abandoning caused by lacking the evaluation of wind-powered electricity generation abandonment characteristic in order to overcome
Wind, which is rationed the power supply, reason and solves the problems, such as the deficiency that abandonment is rationed the power supply, the present invention provide the determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence a kind of with
Device first obtains the operation data of electric system, and the new energy timing that operation data input constructs in advance is then produced model,
Obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；New energy timing production model therein is abandoned using the wind-powered electricity generation that the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation obtains
Wind characteristic is adjusted, and the present invention provides the determination methods of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, rations the power supply original for further analysis abandonment
Cause and solves the problems, such as that abandonment offer of rationing the power supply is basic.
In order to achieve the above-mentioned object of the invention, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that:
On the one hand, the present invention provides a kind of determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, comprising:
Obtain the operation data of electric system；
The new energy timing that operation data input constructs in advance is produced into model, obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；
The wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system and wind-powered electricity generation of the new energy timing production model based on setting are real
Border abandonment sequence construct.
The building of new energy timing production model includes:
Obtain history wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series and the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation；
The practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence and wind-powered electricity generation is made the difference, the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is obtained；
Based on preset wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system, obtains the practical abandonment sequence items evaluation of wind-powered electricity generation and refer to
Scale value；
Based on preset fired power generating unit model, Hydropower Unit model, hydroenergy storage station model, load model, electricity
Web frame model and wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series model, emulation obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；
Based on the wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value is obtained；
The difference for comparing the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index improves if they are the same
Wind-powered electricity generation installation accounting, and determine that the wind-powered electricity generation after improving installation accounting is simulated according to the new energy timing production model constructed in advance and abandon
Wind sequence；Otherwise the operation data is adjusted, continues emulation and obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, and calculate wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence
Every evaluation index value is arranged, until the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is identical with wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value.
The acquisition wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence and the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation, comprising:
The survey wind data of wind power plant is acquired, and according to wind data is surveyed, is based on template processing machine method, theoretical power (horse-power) extrapolation or cabin
Wind speed method calculates the theoretical power (horse-power) of wind power plant different moments, forms wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence；
The practical power output of wind power plant different moments is acquired, the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is formed.
The acquisition of the operation data of the electric system, comprising:
Obtain thermal power unit operation data, Hydropower Unit operation data, hydroenergy storage station operation data, load data and
Electric network composition data.
The evaluation index of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation includes that the wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment period is distributed, the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation is held
Continuous time and the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continue electricity；
The practical abandonment period distribution of the wind-powered electricity generation is calculated as follows:
fpt(t)=Npt(t)/N
Wherein, fpt(t) the practical abandonment period distribution of the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, N are indicatedpt(t) indicate that wind-powered electricity generation reality occurs in t moment
The frequency of abandonment power, N indicate total frequency that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
Tlast=max { k } Pc(t)×Pc(t+1)×······×Pc(t+k-1)≠0&Pc(t)×Pc(t-1)=
0
Wherein, TlastIndicate wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration, Pc(t) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, P are indicatedc
(t+1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment, P are indicatedc(t-1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment, P are indicatedc(t+
K-1) indicate that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment, k indicate the value of wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration；
The practical abandonment of the wind-powered electricity generation is calculated as follows and continues electricity:
Wherein, Ec(t) indicate that the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment continues electricity, Pc(t+i-1) wind-powered electricity generation at t+i-1 moment is indicated
Practical abandonment power, Δ T indicate time interval.
The evaluation index of the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence includes that wind-powered electricity generation simulates the distribution of abandonment period, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment is held
Continuous time and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment continue electricity；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution is calculated as follows:
f′pt(t)=N 'pt(t)/N′
Wherein, f 'pt(t) the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution of t moment, N ' are indicatedpt(t) indicate that wind-powered electricity generation mould occurs in t moment
The frequency of quasi- abandonment power, N ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulate total frequency that abandonment power occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
T′last=max { k ' } Pc′(t)×Pc′(t+1)×······×Pc′(t+k-1)≠0&Pc′(t)×Pc′
(t-1)=0
Wherein, T 'lastIndicate that wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment duration, Pc' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment simulates abandonment power,
Pc' (t+1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment simulates abandonment power, Pc' (t-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment simulates abandonment power,
Pc' (t+k-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment simulates abandonment power, and k ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulates the value of abandonment duration；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment is calculated as follows and continues electricity:
Wherein, Ec' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment of t moment continues electricity, Pc' (t+i-1) indicates -1 moment of t+i '
The practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation, Δ T indicate time interval.
On the other hand, the present invention provides a kind of determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, comprising:
Module is obtained, for obtaining the operation data of electric system；
Emulation module, the new energy timing for constructing operation data input in advance produce model, obtain wind-powered electricity generation
Simulate abandonment sequence；
The wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system and wind-powered electricity generation of the new energy timing production model based on setting are real
Border abandonment sequence construct.
Described device further includes modeling module, and the modeling module includes:
Acquiring unit, for obtaining history wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series and the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation；
The practical abandonment sequence determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation, for doing the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence and wind-powered electricity generation
Difference obtains the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation；
The practical abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation, for being based on preset wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation
Index system obtains the practical abandonment sequence items evaluation index value of wind-powered electricity generation；
Wind-powered electricity generation simulate abandonment sequence determination unit, for based on preset fired power generating unit model, Hydropower Unit model,
Hydroenergy storage station model, load model, power grid model and wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series model, emulation obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation
Abandonment sequence；
Wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit, for being based on the wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index body
System obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value；
Comparison unit, for comparing the difference of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index
It is different, if they are the same, wind-powered electricity generation installation accounting is improved, and determine according to the new energy timing production model constructed in advance and improve installation accounting
Wind-powered electricity generation afterwards simulates abandonment sequence；Otherwise the operation data is adjusted, continues emulation and obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, and calculate
Wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment sequence items evaluation index value, until the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation
Index value is identical.
The acquiring unit includes:
Wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence determination unit is based on for acquiring the survey wind data of wind power plant, and according to wind data is surveyed
Template processing machine method, theoretical power (horse-power) extrapolation or nacelle wind speed method calculate the theoretical power (horse-power) of wind power plant different moments, and it is theoretical to form wind-powered electricity generation
Power sequence；
It is real to form wind-powered electricity generation for acquiring the practical power output of wind power plant different moments for the practical power output sequence determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation
Border power output sequence.
The acquisition module is specifically used for:
Obtain thermal power unit operation data, Hydropower Unit operation data, hydroenergy storage station operation data, load data and
Electric network composition data.
The practical abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation is specifically used for:
The evaluation index of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is calculated, the evaluation index of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation includes wind-powered electricity generation reality
The distribution of abandonment period, wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration and the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continue electricity.
The practical abandonment period distribution of wind-powered electricity generation is calculated as follows:
fpt(t)=Npt(t)/N
Wherein, fpt(t) the practical abandonment period distribution of the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, N are indicatedpt(t) indicate that wind-powered electricity generation reality occurs in t moment
The frequency of abandonment power, N indicate total frequency that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
Tlast=max { k } Pc(t)×Pc(t+1)×······×Pc(t+k-1)≠0&Pc(t)×Pc(t-1)=
0
Wherein, TlastIndicate wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration, Pc(t) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, P are indicatedc
(t+1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment, P are indicatedc(t-1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment, P are indicatedc(t+
K-1) indicate that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment, k indicate the value of wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration；
The practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continues electricity and is calculated as follows:
Wherein, Ec(t) indicate that the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment continues electricity, Pc(t+i-1) wind-powered electricity generation at t+i-1 moment is indicated
Practical abandonment power, Δ T indicate time interval.
Wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit is specifically used for:
The evaluation index of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence is calculated, the evaluation index of the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence includes wind-powered electricity generation
The distribution of simulation abandonment period, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment continue electricity.
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution is calculated as follows:
f′pt(t)=N 'pt(t)/N′
Wherein, f 'pt(t) the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution of t moment, N ' are indicatedpt(t) indicate that wind-powered electricity generation mould occurs in t moment
The frequency of quasi- abandonment power, N ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulate total frequency that abandonment power occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
T′last=max { k ' } Pc′(t)×Pc′(t+1)×······×Pc′(t+k-1)≠0&Pc′(t)×Pc′
(t-1)=0
Wherein, T 'lastIndicate that wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment duration, Pc' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment simulates abandonment power,
Pc' (t+1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment simulates abandonment power, Pc' (t-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment simulates abandonment power,
Pc' (t+k-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment simulates abandonment power, and k ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulates the value of abandonment duration；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment continues electricity and is calculated as follows:
Wherein, Ec' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment of t moment continues electricity, Pc' (t+i-1) indicates -1 moment of t+i '
The practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation, Δ T indicate time interval.
Compared with the immediate prior art, technical solution provided by the invention is had the advantages that
In the determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence provided by the invention, the operation data of electric system is first obtained, so
The new energy timing that operation data input constructs in advance is produced into model afterwards, obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；It is therein described
New energy timing produces wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system and wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment sequence construct of the model based on setting, this
The determination method that invention provides wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence is that further analysis abandonment rations the power supply and reason and solves abandonment and ration the power supply and ask
Topic provides basis；
The determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence provided by the invention includes obtaining module and emulation module, obtains module
For obtaining the operation data of electric system；Emulation module is used to produce the new energy timing that operation data input constructs in advance
Model obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；The new energy timing production model is referred to based on the wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation of setting
The determining device of mark system and the practical abandonment sequence construct of wind-powered electricity generation, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence provided by the invention is further to divide
Analysis abandonment, which is rationed the power supply, reason and solves the problems, such as that abandonment offer of rationing the power supply is basic；
Technical solution provided by the invention gives the evaluation index of wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence characteristic, including abandonment period point
Cloth, abandonment duration and abandonment continue electricity three categories, and the evaluation index of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation, which includes that wind-powered electricity generation is practical, abandons
The distribution of wind period, wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration and the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continue electricity, and wind-powered electricity generation simulates the evaluation of abandonment sequence
Index includes that wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment continue electricity, is wind
Electric abandonment sequence characteristic provides qualitative and quantitative evaluation approach；
The wind that new energy timing production model is obtained using the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation in technical solution provided by the invention
Electric abandonment characteristic is adjusted, and calculates the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and the wind-powered electricity generation simulation respective evaluation index of abandonment sequence, is
Research consumption behave lays the foundation.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the determination method flow diagram of apoplexy electrical analogue abandonment sequence of the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, and specific flow chart is as shown in Figure 1, tool
Body process is as follows:
S101: the operation data of electric system is obtained；
S102: producing model for the new energy timing that operation data input constructs in advance, obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；
The new energy timing therein produces wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system and wind-powered electricity generation of the model based on setting
Practical abandonment sequence construct.
New energy timing production model building include:
Obtain history wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series and the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation；
The practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence and wind-powered electricity generation is made the difference, the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is obtained；
Based on preset wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system, obtains the practical abandonment sequence items evaluation of wind-powered electricity generation and refer to
Scale value；
Based on preset fired power generating unit model, Hydropower Unit model, hydroenergy storage station model, load model, electricity
Web frame model and wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series model, emulation obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；
Based on the wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value is obtained；
The difference for comparing the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index improves if they are the same
Wind-powered electricity generation installation accounting, and determine that the wind-powered electricity generation after improving installation accounting is simulated according to the new energy timing production model constructed in advance and abandon
Wind sequence；Otherwise the operation data is adjusted, continues emulation and obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, and calculate wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence
Every evaluation index value is arranged, until the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is identical with wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value.
Detailed process is as follows for above-mentioned acquisition electric theory power sequence and the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation:
1) the survey wind data of wind power plant is acquired, and according to wind data is surveyed, is based on template processing machine method, theoretical power (horse-power) extrapolation or machine
Cabin wind speed method calculates the theoretical power (horse-power) of wind power plant different moments, forms wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence；
2) the practical power output for acquiring wind power plant different moments, forms the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation.
In above-mentioned S101, the acquisition of the operation data of electric system, comprising:
Obtain thermal power unit operation data, Hydropower Unit operation data, hydroenergy storage station operation data, load data and
Electric network composition data.
The new energy timing production model of building includes fired power generating unit model, Hydropower Unit model, pumped storage storage station mould
Type, load model, power grid model and wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series model.
The evaluation index of the practical abandonment sequence of above-mentioned wind-powered electricity generation includes the practical abandonment period distribution of wind-powered electricity generation, the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation
Duration and the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continue electricity；Specific calculating process is as follows:
The practical abandonment period distribution of wind-powered electricity generation is calculated as follows:
fpt(t)=Npt(t)/N
Wherein, fpt(t) the practical abandonment period distribution of the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, N are indicatedpt(t) indicate that wind-powered electricity generation reality occurs in t moment
The frequency of abandonment power, N indicate total frequency that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
Tlast=max { k } Pc(t)×Pc(t+1)×······×Pc(t+k-1)≠0&Pc(t)×Pc(t-1)=
0
Wherein, TlastIndicate wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration, Pc(t) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, P are indicatedc
(t+1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment, P are indicatedc(t-1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment, P are indicatedc(t+
K-1) indicate that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment, k indicate the value of wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration；
The practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation is calculated as follows and continues electricity:
Wherein, Ec(t) indicate that the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment continues electricity, Pc(t+i-1) wind-powered electricity generation at t+i-1 moment is indicated
Practical abandonment power, Δ T indicate time interval.
The evaluation index of above-mentioned wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence includes wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment
Duration and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment continue electricity, and specific calculating process is as follows:
Wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution is calculated as follows:
f′pt(t)=N 'pt(t)/N′
Wherein, f 'pt(t) the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution of t moment, N ' are indicatedpt(t) indicate that wind-powered electricity generation mould occurs in t moment
The frequency of quasi- abandonment power, N ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulate total frequency that abandonment power occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
T′last=max { k ' } Pc′(t)×Pc′(t+1)×······×Pc′(t+k-1)≠0&Pc′(t)×Pc′
(t-1)=0
Wherein, T 'lastIndicate that wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment duration, Pc' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment simulates abandonment power,
Pc' (t+1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment simulates abandonment power, Pc' (t-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment simulates abandonment power,
Pc' (t+k-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment simulates abandonment power, and k ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulates the value of abandonment duration；
Wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment is calculated as follows and continues electricity:
Wherein, Ec' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment of t moment continues electricity, Pc' (t+i-1) indicates -1 moment of t+i '
The practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation, Δ T indicate time interval.
In the building process of above-mentioned new energy timing production model, the evaluation of the specifically comparison practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation refers to
The evaluation index of mark and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, if fpt(t)=f 'pt(t)、Tlast=T 'lastAnd Ec(t)=Ec' (t), wind-powered electricity generation
Abandonment sequence meets given threshold, improves wind-powered electricity generation installation accounting, and determine according to the new energy timing production model constructed in advance
Wind-powered electricity generation after improving installation accounting simulates abandonment sequence；Otherwise the operation data is adjusted, continues emulation and obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandoning
Wind sequence, and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value is calculated, until the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation are abandoned
Wind sequence items evaluation index value is identical, i.e., is distributed until the practical abandonment period distribution of wind-powered electricity generation is equal to the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period,
The wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration is equal to wind-powered electricity generation and simulates the abandonment duration, and the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continues electricity equal to wind-powered electricity generation mould
Quasi- abandonment continues electricity.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, packet
It includes and obtains modular simulation module, introduce the concrete function of above-mentioned module separately below:
Acquisition module therein, for obtaining the operation data of electric system；
Emulation module therein, the new energy timing for constructing operation data input in advance produce model, obtain wind
Electrical analogue abandonment sequence；It is practical that new energy timing produces wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system and wind-powered electricity generation of the model based on setting
Abandonment sequence construct.
Device provided in an embodiment of the present invention further includes modeling module, and modeling module includes:
Acquiring unit, for obtaining history wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series and the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation；
The practical abandonment sequence determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation, for doing the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence and wind-powered electricity generation
Difference obtains the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation；
The practical abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation, for being based on preset wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation
Index system obtains the practical abandonment sequence items evaluation index value of wind-powered electricity generation；
Wind-powered electricity generation simulate abandonment sequence determination unit, for based on preset fired power generating unit model, Hydropower Unit model,
Hydroenergy storage station model, load model, power grid model and wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series model, emulation obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation
Abandonment sequence；
Wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit, for being based on the wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index body
System obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value；
Comparison unit, for comparing the difference of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index
It is different, if they are the same, wind-powered electricity generation installation accounting is improved, and determine according to the new energy timing production model constructed in advance and improve installation accounting
Wind-powered electricity generation afterwards simulates abandonment sequence；Otherwise the operation data is adjusted, continues emulation and obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, and calculate
Wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment sequence items evaluation index value, until the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation
Index value is identical.
Acquiring unit includes:
Wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence determination unit is based on for acquiring the survey wind data of wind power plant, and according to wind data is surveyed
Template processing machine method, theoretical power (horse-power) extrapolation or nacelle wind speed method calculate the theoretical power (horse-power) of wind power plant different moments, and it is theoretical to form wind-powered electricity generation
Power sequence；
It is real to form wind-powered electricity generation for acquiring the practical power output of wind power plant different moments for the practical power output sequence determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation
Border power output sequence.
Module is obtained to be specifically used for:
Obtain thermal power unit operation data, Hydropower Unit operation data, hydroenergy storage station operation data, load data and
Electric network composition data.
The practical abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation calculates the evaluation index of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation, wind-powered electricity generation
The evaluation index of practical abandonment sequence includes that the practical abandonment period distribution of wind-powered electricity generation, wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration and wind-powered electricity generation are practical
Abandonment continues electricity.
The practical abandonment period distribution of wind-powered electricity generation is calculated as follows:
fpt(t)=Npt(t)/N
Wherein, fpt(t) the practical abandonment period distribution of the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, N are indicatedpt(t) indicate that wind-powered electricity generation reality occurs in t moment
The frequency of abandonment power, N indicate total frequency that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
Tlast=max { k } Pc(t)×Pc(t+1)×······×Pc(t+k-1)≠0&Pc(t)×Pc(t-1)=
0
Wherein, TlastIndicate wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration, Pc(t) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, P are indicatedc
(t+1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment, P are indicatedc(t-1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment, P are indicatedc(t+
K-1) indicate that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment, k indicate the value of wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration；
The practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continues electricity and is specifically calculated as follows:
Wherein, Ec(t) indicate that the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment continues electricity, Pc(t+i-1) wind-powered electricity generation at t+i-1 moment is indicated
Practical abandonment power, Δ T indicate time interval.
Wind-powered electricity generation simulates the evaluation index that abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit calculates wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, described
The evaluation index of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence includes wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration and wind-powered electricity generation
Simulation abandonment continues electricity.
Wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution is specifically calculated as follows:
f′pt(t)=N 'pt(t)/N′
Wherein, f 'pt(t) the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution of t moment, N ' are indicatedpt(t) indicate that wind-powered electricity generation mould occurs in t moment
The frequency of quasi- abandonment power, N ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulate total frequency that abandonment power occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration is specifically calculated as follows:
T′last=max { k ' } Pc′(t)×Pc′(t+1)×······×Pc′(t+k-1)≠0&Pc′(t)×Pc′
(t-1)=0
Wherein, T 'lastIndicate that wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment duration, Pc' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment simulates abandonment power,
Pc' (t+1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment simulates abandonment power, Pc' (t-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment simulates abandonment power,
Pc' (t+k-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment simulates abandonment power, and k ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulates the value of abandonment duration；
Wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment continues electricity and is specifically calculated as follows:
Wherein, Ec' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment of t moment continues electricity, Pc' (t+i-1) indicates -1 moment of t+i '
The practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation, Δ T indicate time interval.
3) above-mentioned comparison unit is specifically used for:
The evaluation index of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and the evaluation index of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence are compared, if fpt(t)=
f′pt(t)、Tlast=T 'lastAnd Ec(t)=Ec' (t), wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence meet given threshold, improve wind-powered electricity generation installation accounting, and
Determine that the wind-powered electricity generation after improving installation accounting simulates abandonment sequence according to the new energy timing production model constructed in advance；Otherwise it adjusts
The operation data continues emulation and obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, and calculates wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index
Value, until the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is identical with wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value, i.e., until the practical abandoning of wind-powered electricity generation
The distribution of wind period is equal to wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution, when the wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration continues equal to wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment
Between, and the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continues electricity and continues electricity equal to wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment.
For convenience of description, each section of apparatus described above is divided into various modules with function or unit describes respectively.
Certainly, each module or the function of unit can be realized in same or multiple softwares or hardware when implementing the application.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can provide as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or reality combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the application
Apply the form of example.Moreover, it wherein includes the computer of computer usable program code that the application, which can be used in one or more,
The computer program implemented in usable storage medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.) produces
The form of product.
The application is referring to method, the process of equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present application
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that every one stream in flowchart and/or the block diagram can be realized by computer program instructions
The combination of process and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.It can provide these computer programs
Instruct the processor of general purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices to produce
A raw machine, so that being generated by the instruction that computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices execute for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, is able to guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works, so that it includes referring to that instruction stored in the computer readable memory, which generates,
Enable the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one box of one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that counting
Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, thus in computer or
The instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
Finally it should be noted that: the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical scheme of the present invention and are not intended to be limiting thereof, institute
The those of ordinary skill in category field can still modify to a specific embodiment of the invention referring to above-described embodiment or
Equivalent replacement, these are applying for this pending hair without departing from any modification of spirit and scope of the invention or equivalent replacement
Within bright claims.
Claims (14)
1. a kind of determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence characterized by comprising
Obtain the operation data of electric system；
The new energy timing that operation data input constructs in advance is produced into model, obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；
The new energy timing produces wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system and wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment sequence of the model based on setting
Column building.
2. the determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the new energy timing
Production model building include:
Obtain history wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series and the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation；
The practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence and wind-powered electricity generation is made the difference, the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is obtained；
Based on preset wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system, the practical abandonment sequence items evaluation index of wind-powered electricity generation is obtained
Value；
Based on preset fired power generating unit model, Hydropower Unit model, hydroenergy storage station model, load model, power grid knot
Structure model and wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series model, emulation obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence；
Based on the wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value is obtained；
The difference for comparing the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index improves wind-powered electricity generation if they are the same
Installation accounting, and the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence after improving installation accounting is determined according to the new energy timing production model constructed in advance
Column；Otherwise the operation data is adjusted, continues emulation and obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, and it is each to calculate wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence
Item evaluation index value, until the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value are identical.
3. the determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the acquisition wind-powered electricity generation reason
By the practical power output sequence of power sequence and wind-powered electricity generation, comprising:
The survey wind data of wind power plant is acquired, and according to wind data is surveyed, is based on template processing machine method, theoretical power (horse-power) extrapolation or nacelle wind speed
Method calculates the theoretical power (horse-power) of wind power plant different moments, forms wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence；
The practical power output of wind power plant different moments is acquired, the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is formed.
4. the determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the electric system
The acquisition of operation data, comprising:
Obtain thermal power unit operation data, Hydropower Unit operation data, hydroenergy storage station operation data, load data and power grid
Structured data.
5. the determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the wind-powered electricity generation is practical to be abandoned
The evaluation index of wind sequence includes that the practical abandonment period distribution of wind-powered electricity generation, wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration and the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation are held
Continuous electricity；
The practical abandonment period distribution of the wind-powered electricity generation is calculated as follows:
fpt(t)=Npt(t)/N
Wherein, fpt(t) the practical abandonment period distribution of the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, N are indicatedpt(t) indicate that the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation occurs in t moment
The frequency of power, N indicate total frequency that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
Tlast=max { k } Pc(t)×Pc(t+1)×······×Pc(t+k-1)≠0&Pc(t)×Pc(t-1)=0
Wherein, TlastIndicate wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration, Pc(t) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, P are indicatedc(t+1)
Indicate the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment, Pc(t-1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment, P are indicatedc(t+k-1) table
Show that the practical abandonment power of the wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment, k indicate the value of wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration；
The practical abandonment of the wind-powered electricity generation is calculated as follows and continues electricity:
Wherein, Ec(t) indicate that the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment continues electricity, Pc(t+i-1) indicate that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+i-1 moment is practical
Abandonment power, Δ T indicate time interval.
6. the determination method of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the wind-powered electricity generation simulation is abandoned
The evaluation index of wind sequence includes that wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment are held
Continuous electricity；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution is calculated as follows:
f′pt(t)=N 'pt(t)/N′
Wherein, f 'pt(t) the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution of t moment, N ' are indicatedpt(t) indicate that t moment wind-powered electricity generation simulation occurs and abandons
The frequency of wind power, N ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulate total frequency that abandonment power occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
T′last=max { k ' } Pc′(t)×Pc′(t+1)×······×Pc′(t+k-1)≠0&Pc′(t)×Pc′(t-
1)=0
Wherein, T 'lastIndicate that wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment duration, Pc' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment simulates abandonment power, Pc′(t
+ 1) indicate that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment simulates abandonment power, Pc' (t-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment simulates abandonment power, Pc′(t+
K-1) indicate that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment simulates abandonment power, k ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulates the value of abandonment duration；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment is calculated as follows and continues electricity:
Wherein, Ec' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment of t moment continues electricity, PcThe wind-powered electricity generation at ' (t+i-1) expression -1 moment of t+i '
Practical abandonment power, Δ T indicate time interval.
7. a kind of determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence characterized by comprising
Module is obtained, for obtaining the operation data of electric system；
Emulation module, the new energy timing for constructing operation data input in advance produce model, obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation
Abandonment sequence；
The wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system and wind-powered electricity generation of the new energy timing production model based on setting are practical to abandon
Wind sequence construct.
8. the determining device of wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 7 simulation abandonment sequence, which is characterized in that described device further includes
Modeling module, the modeling module include:
Acquiring unit, for obtaining history wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series and the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation；
The practical abandonment sequence determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation is obtained for making the difference the practical power output sequence of wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence and wind-powered electricity generation
To the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation；
The practical abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation, for being based on preset wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index
System obtains the practical abandonment sequence items evaluation index value of wind-powered electricity generation；
Wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment sequence determination unit, for being based on preset fired power generating unit model, Hydropower Unit model, drawing water
Storage station's model, load model, power grid model and wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) series model, emulation obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment
Sequence；
Wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit, for being based on the wind-powered electricity generation abandonment sequence evaluation index system,
Obtain wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index value；
Comparison unit, for comparing the difference of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence items evaluation index, if
It is identical, improve wind-powered electricity generation install accounting, and according to construct in advance new energy timing production model determine improve installation accounting after
Wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment sequence；Otherwise the operation data is adjusted, continues emulation and obtains wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence, and calculate wind-powered electricity generation
Abandonment sequence items evaluation index value is simulated, until the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation and wind-powered electricity generation simulate abandonment sequence items evaluation index
It is worth identical.
9. the determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 7, which is characterized in that the acquiring unit packet
It includes:
Wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power) sequence determination unit is based on template for acquiring the survey wind data of wind power plant, and according to wind data is surveyed
Machine method, theoretical power (horse-power) extrapolation or nacelle wind speed method calculate the theoretical power (horse-power) of wind power plant different moments, form wind-powered electricity generation theoretical power (horse-power)
Sequence；
The practical power output sequence determination unit of wind-powered electricity generation, for acquiring the practical power output of wind power plant different moments, formed wind-powered electricity generation it is practical go out
Power sequence.
10. the determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 7, which is characterized in that the acquisition module
It is specifically used for:
Obtain thermal power unit operation data, Hydropower Unit operation data, hydroenergy storage station operation data, load data and power grid
Structured data.
11. the determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 8, which is characterized in that the wind-powered electricity generation is practical
Abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit is specifically used for:
The evaluation index of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation is calculated, the evaluation index of the practical abandonment sequence of wind-powered electricity generation includes the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation
Period distribution, wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration and the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continue electricity.
12. the determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 11, which is characterized in that the wind-powered electricity generation is practical
The distribution of abandonment period is calculated as follows:
fpt(t)=Npt(t)/N
Wherein, fpt(t) the practical abandonment period distribution of the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, N are indicatedpt(t) indicate that the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation occurs in t moment
The frequency of power, N indicate total frequency that the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
Tlast=max { k } Pc(t)×Pc(t+1)×······×Pc(t+k-1)≠0&Pc(t)×Pc(t-1)=0
Wherein, TlastIndicate wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration, Pc(t) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment, P are indicatedc(t+1)
Indicate the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment, Pc(t-1) the practical abandonment power of wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment, P are indicatedc(t+k-1) table
Show that the practical abandonment power of the wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment, k indicate the value of wind-powered electricity generation practical abandonment duration；
The practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation continues electricity and is calculated as follows:
Wherein, Ec(t) indicate that the practical abandonment of wind-powered electricity generation of t moment continues electricity, Pc(t+i-1) indicate that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+i-1 moment is practical
Abandonment power, Δ T indicate time interval.
13. the determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 8, which is characterized in that the wind-powered electricity generation simulation
Abandonment sequence evaluation index value determination unit is specifically used for:
The evaluation index of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence is calculated, the evaluation index of the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence includes wind-powered electricity generation simulation
The distribution of abandonment period, wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration and wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment continue electricity.
14. the determining device of wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment sequence according to claim 13, which is characterized in that the wind-powered electricity generation simulation
The distribution of abandonment period is calculated as follows:
f′pt(t)=N 'pt(t)/N′
Wherein, f 'pt(t) the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment period distribution of t moment, N ' are indicatedpt(t) indicate that t moment wind-powered electricity generation simulation occurs and abandons
The frequency of wind power, N ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulate total frequency that abandonment power occurs；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment duration is calculated as follows:
T′last=max { k ' } P+′(t)×Pc′(t+1)×······×Pc′(t+k-1)≠0&Pc′(t)×Pc′(t-
1)=0
Wherein, T 'lastIndicate that wind-powered electricity generation simulates abandonment duration, Pc' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation of t moment simulates abandonment power, Pc′(t
+ 1) indicate that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+1 moment simulates abandonment power, Pc' (t-1) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation at t-1 moment simulates abandonment power, Pc′(t+
K-1) indicate that the wind-powered electricity generation at t+k-1 moment simulates abandonment power, k ' expression wind-powered electricity generation simulates the value of abandonment duration；
The wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment continues electricity and is calculated as follows:
Wherein, Ec' (t) indicates that the wind-powered electricity generation simulation abandonment of t moment continues electricity, PcThe wind-powered electricity generation at ' (t+i-1) expression -1 moment of t+i '
Practical abandonment power, Δ T indicate time interval.
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