CN109118721A - The method, apparatus and method for early warning of compound warning index are inquired into based on Critical Rainfall - Google Patents
The method, apparatus and method for early warning of compound warning index are inquired into based on Critical Rainfall Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of method, apparatus and method for early warning that compound warning index is inquired into based on Critical Rainfall, the calculation formula RTI=(k including obtaining compound warning index RTI1*Pa+P)/H^k2；In formula, k1、k2For coefficient, Pa is to influence rainfall early period, and H is the early warning period, and P combines scene lower critical rainfall value to influence rainfall Pa and early warning period different early periods；Determine coefficient k1And k2Value；Obtain initial soil moisture content, actual measurement or the rainfall of forecast when starting rainfall and its when segment length, and substitute into calculation formula RTI=(k1*Pa+P)/H^k2, obtain real-time compound warning index value；Corresponding operation is executed by real-time compound warning index value and the compound warning index threshold value comparison of section, and according to comparison result.The present invention makes full use of the existing information before incident, simple and easy, can calculate arbitrary period early warning value, and a kind of new effective method can be provided for mountain flood early warning.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to fields, and in particular to it is a kind of based on Critical Rainfall inquire into compound warning index method, apparatus and
Method for early warning.
Background technique
Mountain flood refer to occur in the gully of mountain area rise suddenly and sharply flood and thus caused by landslide, mud-rock flow etc. the mankind are given birth to
The accidental pollution event that life and property threaten.Mountain Area physical geographic environment is special, along with extreme weather and the mankind are frequent
Movable influence, mountain flood have become cause casualties in China's natural calamity with the main disasters kind of property loss it
One.Therefore, implementing more reliable mountain flood early warning is the vital task that China Mountain Area is prevented and reduced natural disasters.
Critical Rainfall is currently used mountain flood warning index, it, which refers to, causes a region to occur in certain time
The minimum level or intensity that rainfall is met or exceeded when mountain flood.There are many methods for the determination of Critical Rainfall: external extensive
Application be U.S. hydrologic research center FFG (Flash Flood Guidance, FFG) system, FFG by critical flow according to
Rainfall runoff relation curve is calculated；Domestic Recent study it is more be inquiring into Critical Rainfall and hydrological model knot
It closes, by hydrological model inverse Critical Rainfall.Mountain flood research and appraisal project in China's is using empirical method, hydrology calculating method and divides
The calculating of the methods of cloth hydrological model simulation obtains national 170,000 design floods in village along the river, Critical Rainfall early warning and refers to
Mark.The calculating of this Critical Rainfall has fully considered that rainfall causes the production confluence mechanism in calamity discharge process to formation, but at present only
It can consider the inquiring into of several specific condition lower critical rainfall (such as initial soil moisture content Pa=1WM, 0.8WM, 0.5WM, when early warning
Segment length=1h, 2h, 3h), and practical initial soil moisture content may not be preset value, the early warning period of mountain torrents will not
It is confined to several integral point periods.
Compound warning index method can fully consider raininess, shadow early period based on the rainfall in China Taiwan driving index method
Ring the influences of the rainfall essential factors to mountain flood such as rainfall, play cumulative precipitation.The advantages of compound warning index, is that energy basis is gone through
History flood data finds out its correlation between mountain torrents, and simple and clear, calculating is simply.But if compound warning index is answered
National Typical Small Watershed is used, and still analyzes its feature and rule from history storm flood data and early warning flow
Words, not only workload is huge, but also cannot be connected well with existing mountain flood research and appraisal achievement.
Summary of the invention
In view of the above-mentioned problems, the present invention propose it is a kind of based on Critical Rainfall inquire into compound warning index method, apparatus and
Method for early warning, makes full use of the existing information before incident, simple and easy, can calculate arbitrary period early warning value, can be mountain torrents calamity
Evil early warning provides a kind of new effective method.
It realizes above-mentioned technical purpose, reaches above-mentioned technical effect, the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
In a first aspect, the invention proposes a kind of methods for inquiring into compound warning index based on Critical Rainfall, comprising:
Obtain the calculation formula RTI=(k of compound warning index RTI1*Pa+P)/H^k2；In formula, k1、k2For coefficient, Pa is
Influence rainfall early period, H is the early warning period, and P is to influence rainfall Pa different early periods to combine scene lower critical rainfall value with the early warning period；
Determine coefficient k1And k2Value completes inquiring into for compound warning index.
Preferably, the determining coefficient k1And k2Value specifically: the coefficient k obtained based on trial and error procedure1And k2Value.
Preferably, the coefficient k obtained based on trial and error procedure1And k2Value, specifically includes the following steps:
Obtain the section Critical Rainfall in the case of different influence rainfall Pa early period in target area and early warning period H multiple combinations
Value；A corresponding early period of the influence rainfall value of each section Critical Rainfall value and an early warning time period value, three constitute a kind of combination
There are multiple sections in situation, a target area, and different section has respective Critical Rainfall value；
Based on the Critical Rainfall value under each combined situation, one group of k is inputted1And k2Value substitutes into compound warning index and calculates
In formula, each compound warning index value of section under the combined situation is obtained:
RTIij=(k1*Paij+Pij)/Hij^k2
Wherein, RTIijFor the compound warning index value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation, PaijFor i-th of section
Early period under j kind combined situation influences rainfall value, PijFor the Critical Rainfall value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation, HijFor
Early warning time period value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation；
Mean value, mean square deviation and coefficient of variation and the entire target area for calculating the compound warning index value of each section are compound
The variation of mean rate coefficient of warning index value；
Tentative calculation is until the variation of mean rate coefficient of the compound warning index value in entire target area in the ideal range, obtains repeatedly
k1And k2Value.
Preferably, the mean value RTI of the compound warning index value of each sectioni0Calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, RTIi0For the mean value of the compound warning index value of i-th of section, RTIijFeelings are combined for i-th of section jth kind
Compound warning index value under condition, n are the number of combined situation.
Preferably, the mean square deviation of the compound warning index value of each sectionCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein,For the mean square deviation of the compound warning index value of i-th of section, RTIi0Refer to for the compound early warning of i-th of section
The mean value of scale value, RTIijFor the compound warning index value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation, n is the number of combined situation.
Preferably, the variation coefficient Cv of the compound warning index value of each sectioniCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, CviFor the coefficient of variation of the compound warning index value of i-th of section, whereinIt is compound pre- for i-th of section
The mean square deviation of alert index value, RTIi0For the mean value of the compound warning index value of i-th of section.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the variation of mean rate coefficient of the compound warning index value in the entire target area are as follows:
Wherein,For the variation of mean rate coefficient of the compound warning index value in entire target area, m is section number, CviIt is
The coefficient of variation of the compound warning index value of i section.
Second aspect, the present invention provides a kind of devices that compound warning index is inquired into based on Critical Rainfall, comprising:
Obtain module, the calculation formula RTI=(k for obtaining module and being used to obtain compound warning index RTI1*Pa+P)/
H^k2；In formula, k1、k2For coefficient, Pa is to influence rainfall early period, and H is the early warning period, and P is to influence rainfall Pa and early warning different early periods
Period combines scene lower critical rainfall value；
Coefficient determination module, the coefficient determination module is for determining coefficient k1And k2Value completes compound warning index
Inquire into.
The third aspect, the present invention provides a kind of method for early warning based on compound warning index, comprising:
Obtain initial soil moisture content, actual measurement or the rainfall of forecast and the duration of raining of actual measurement or forecast when starting rainfall
It is long, and the calculation formula RTI=(k of the compound warning index RTI described in any one of substituting into first aspect1*Pa+P)/H^k2, obtain
To real-time compound warning index value；
By compound warning index value and the compound warning index threshold value comparison of section in real time, and executed according to comparison result
Corresponding operation.
Preferably, it is described will real-time compound warning index value and the compound warning index threshold value comparison of section, and according to comparing
As a result corresponding operation is executed, wherein the compound warning index threshold value of the section is the mean value of the compound warning index value of section,
Specifically includes the following steps:
(1) when real-time compound warning index value meets or exceeds the compound warning index threshold value of section, then mountain torrents early warning is issued；
(2) when real-time compound warning index value is less than the compound warning index threshold value of section, and rainfall continues to, then rolls
Calculated for subsequent compound warning index value in real time, and judge whether early warning again until rainfall weakens or stops.
Compared with prior art, beneficial effects of the present invention:
The invention proposes the formula for calculating compound warning index: RTI=(k1*Pa+P)/H^k2, the formula utilize region
Existing Critical Rainfall data simultaneously combine trial and error procedure, both can determine that the parameter k under the region in formula1And k2, and the area can be obtained
The compound warning index threshold value in domain.It kills two birds with one stone, it is simple and easy, from history heavy rain when avoiding the compound warning index of traditional calculations
Flood data and early warning flow set out the huge workload of analysis, hold in the mouth well with existing mountain flood research and appraisal achievement
It connects.
The present invention is determining the parameter k in formula1And k2When introduce variation coefficient Cv, and require Cv as small as possible, show
Compound warning index value in the case of each section respectively combines is not much different, and the compound early warning that mean value can represent respective section refers to
Mark threshold value.Real-time compound warning index value has been calculated to once pass through formula when carrying out mountain torrents early warning, it can straight make and break
The compound warning index threshold value comparison in face, without consider be under which kind of scene, no longer by the prior art utilize Critical Rainfall into
Several specific conditions (such as initial soil moisture content Pa=1WM, 0.8WM, 0.5WM, early warning period can only be considered when row mountain torrents early warning
Length=1h, 2h, 3h) constraint.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the method that compound warning index is inquired into based on Critical Rainfall and the flow chart of method for early warning；
Fig. 2 is in embodiment 1 with trial and error procedure calculating parameter k1、k2Flow chart；
Fig. 3 is the program flow chart that Wuyuan County carries out mountain torrents early warning using compound warning index in embodiment 4.
Specific embodiment
In order to make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, with reference to embodiments, to the present invention
It is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present invention, it is not used to
Limit the present invention.
Application principle of the invention is explained in detail with reference to the accompanying drawing.
In the prior art although the calculation method of Critical Rainfall has fully considered that rainfall causes in calamity discharge process to formation
Produce confluence mechanism, but its can only consider the inquiring into of several specific condition lower critical rainfall (such as initial soil moisture content Pa=1WM,
0.8WM, 0.5WM, segment length=1h, 2h, 3h when early warning), and practical initial soil moisture content may not be preset value, mountain
The early warning period of flood will not be confined to several integral point periods, be inquired into for this purpose, the invention proposes one kind based on Critical Rainfall
The method, apparatus and method for early warning of compound warning index.
Embodiment 1
According to Basin Rainfall produce stream Physical Mechanism, proposition of the invention on condition that: assert early period influence rainfall Pa, early warning
To compound warning index, there are shadows by period H, different influence rainfall early period and early warning period combination scene lower critical rainfall value P
It rings, compound warning index RTI should be 3 functional relation, it may be assumed that
RTI=f (Pa, P, H)
It is small compared with the influence of this play rainfall on the effect for producing stream to influence rainfall Pa early period, therefore refer to calculating compound early warning
When mark, assigning influences mono- reduction coefficient of rainfall Pa early period；Meanwhile different raininess have differences the effect for producing stream, raininess is got over
More be also easy to produce runoff when big, compound warning index and raininess it is proportional, with early warning period H inversely.
Based on foregoing description, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of sides that compound warning index is inquired into based on Critical Rainfall
Method, comprising the following steps:
Step (1) obtains the calculation formula RTI=(k of compound warning index RTI1*Pa+P)/H^k2；
In formula, k1、k2For coefficient, Pa is to influence rainfall early period, and H is the early warning period, P be influence different early periods rainfall Pa and
The early warning period combines scene lower critical rainfall value；
Step (2) determines coefficient k1And k2Value；Wherein k1And k2It is recommended that value range is section (0,1)；
In a kind of specific embodiment of the embodiment of the present invention, the determining coefficient k1And k2Value is using being based on
The coefficient k that trial and error procedure obtains1And k2Value, specifically: the coefficient k obtained based on trial and error procedure1And k2Value specifically includes
Following steps:
Obtain the Critical Rainfall value P influenced different early periods under rainfall Pa and early warning period H combined situation1…Pi；
A corresponding early period of the influence rainfall value of each section Critical Rainfall value and an early warning time period value, three constitute one kind
Combined situation can regard a kind of cross directional variations different and different with Critical Rainfall as；There are multiple sections in one target area, different
Section has respective Critical Rainfall value, can regard as longitudinally varying with the different and different one kind of section.Feelings are combined based on each
Critical Rainfall value P under conditioni, input one group of k1And k2Value, substitutes into compound warning index calculation formula, obtains the combined situation
Under each compound warning index value of section；
Mean value, very poor, mean square deviation and coefficient of variation and the whole region for calculating the compound warning index value of each section are flat
Equal coefficient of variation
Tentative calculation is until C repeatedlyvIn the ideal range, k is obtained1And k2Value, referring particularly to following step (2.1)-(2.4):
(2.1) the critical rain in the case of different influence rainfall Pa early period in target area and early warning period H multiple combinations is determined
Magnitude P1…Pi；In actual application, China's mountain flood research and appraisal project using empirical method, hydrology calculating method and is divided
The calculating of the methods of cloth hydrological model simulation obtains national 170,000 design floods in village along the river, Critical Rainfall early warning and refers to
Mark；Accordingly, it can collect manually or download target area section Critical Rainfall value, each section Critical Rainfall value pair from database
Answer that early period influences rainfall value and an early warning time period value, three constitute a kind of combined situation；
(2.2) according to the Critical Rainfall value under each combined situation, the k of one group of hypothesis is inputted1And k2Value substitutes into compound
Warning index calculation formula obtains this group of k1And k2It is worth the lower compound warning index value of each section in target area, specific as follows:
RTIij=(k1*Paij+Pij)/Hij^k2
Wherein, RTIijFor the compound warning index value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation, PaijFor i-th of section
Early period under j kind combined situation influences rainfall value, PijFor the Critical Rainfall value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation, HijFor
Early warning time period value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation；
(2.3) mean value, very poor, mean square deviation and the coefficient of variation and entire mesh of each compound warning index value of section are calculated
The variation of mean rate coefficient of region composite warning index value is marked, specifically:
The mean value RTI of the compound warning index value of each sectioni0Calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, RTIi0For the mean value of the compound warning index value of i-th of section, RTIijFeelings are combined for i-th of section jth kind
Compound warning index value under condition, n are the number of combined situation；
The very poor calculation formula of the compound warning index value of each section are as follows:
ΔRTIi=RTIimax-RTIimin
Wherein, Δ RTIiFor very poor, the RTI of the compound warning index value of i-th of sectionimaxIt is maximum compound pre- for i-th of section
Alert index value, RTIiminFor the minimum compound warning index value of i-th of section；
The calculation formula of the mean square deviation of the compound warning index value of each section are as follows:
Wherein,For the mean square deviation of the compound warning index value of i-th of section, RTIi0Refer to for the compound early warning of i-th of section
The mean value of scale value, RTIijFor the compound warning index value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation, n is the number of combined situation；
The calculation formula of the coefficient of variation of the compound warning index value of each section are as follows:
Wherein, CviFor the coefficient of variation of the compound warning index value of i-th of section, whereinIt is compound pre- for i-th of section
The mean square deviation of alert index value, RTIi0For the mean value of the compound warning index value of i-th of section；
The calculation formula of the variation of mean rate coefficient of the compound warning index value in entire target area are as follows:
Wherein,For the variation of mean rate coefficient of the compound warning index value in entire target area, m is section number, CviIt is
The coefficient of variation of the compound warning index value of i section.
(2.4) step (2.2) and (2.3) tentative calculation repeatedly are repeated, until the compound warning index value in entire target area is flat
Equal coefficient of variationIn the ideal range, to obtain corresponding k1And k2Value, such as Fig. 2.
Embodiment 2
Based on inventive concept same as Example 1, one kind is provided in the embodiment of the present invention and is inquired into based on Critical Rainfall
The device of compound warning index characterized by comprising
Obtain module, the calculation formula RTI=(k for obtaining module and being used to obtain compound warning index RTI1*Pa+P)/
H^k2；In formula, k1、k2For coefficient, Pa is to influence rainfall early period, and H is the early warning period, and P is to influence rainfall Pa and early warning different early periods
Period combines scene lower critical rainfall value；
Coefficient determination module, the coefficient determination module is for determining coefficient k1And k2Value completes compound warning index
Inquire into.
Rest part is same as Example 1.
Embodiment 3
Based on inventive concept same as Example 1, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of based on compound warning index
Method for early warning, comprising:
Obtain initial soil moisture content, actual measurement or the rainfall of forecast and the duration of raining of actual measurement or forecast when starting rainfall
It is long, and the calculation formula RTI=(k of the compound warning index RTI described in any one of substituting into first aspect1*Pa+P)/H^k2, obtain
To real-time compound warning index value；
By compound warning index value and the compound warning index threshold value comparison of section in real time, and executed according to comparison result
Corresponding operation.
In a kind of specific embodiment of the embodiment of the present invention, the compound warning index threshold value of the section is multiple for section
The mean value of warning index value is closed, it is described by real-time compound warning index value and the compound warning index threshold value comparison of section, and according to
Comparison result executes corresponding operation, specifically includes the following steps:
(1) when real-time compound warning index value meets or exceeds the compound warning index threshold value of section, then mountain torrents early warning is issued；
(2) when real-time compound warning index value is less than the compound warning index threshold value of section, and rainfall continues to, then rolls
Calculated for subsequent compound warning index value in real time, and judge whether early warning again until rainfall weakens or stops.
Rest part is same as Example 1.
Embodiment 4
The method explanation that compound warning index is inquired into based on Critical Rainfall is carried out below with reference to specific data.
1. the Critical Rainfall data based on a large amount of mountain flood prevention sections that national mountain flood research and appraisal obtain, are received
Having integrated Jiangxi Wuyuan county influences rainfall Pa as tri- kinds of scenes of 0.5Wm, 0.8Wm and 1.0Wm 90 mountain flood prevention section early periods
And early warning period H lasts combination scene lower critical rainfall index value for tri- kinds of 1h, 2h and 3h；
2. specifying calculation formula RTI=(k according to the Critical Rainfall index value1*Pa+P)/H^k2Mid-early stage influences
Rainfall Pa is respectively that (Wuyuan County belongs to the VIIth Runoff Generating Area of Jiangxi Province, and saturated soil water content Wm is by 0.5Wm, 0.8Wm and 1.0Wm
110mm), early warning period H is respectively 1h, 2h and 3h.Therefore, 9 kinds of combined situations: Pa=0.5Wm, H=1h are shared；Pa=
0.5Wm, H=2h；Pa=0.5Wm, H=3h；Pa=0.8Wm, H=1h；Pa=0.8Wm, H=2h；Pa=0.8Wm, H=3h；
Pa=1.0Wm, H=1h；Pa=1.0Wm, H=2h；Pa=1.0Wm, H=3h.
3. assuming one group of k1And k2Value, according to 9 kinds of combined situations of each section, by corresponding previous rainfall amount Pa, early warning period H
Above-mentioned theory formula is substituted into Critical Rainfall P, the compound warning index value of 9, each section is obtained, it is compound then to calculate each section
Then the mean value of warning index value, very poor, mean square deviation and coefficient of variation calculate the variation of mean rate system of the compound warning index of Wuyuan County
NumberAnd in this, as optimization aim tentative calculation repeatedly, finally obtaining makesThe k of value in the ideal range1And k2Value.The trial result
It is shown in Table 1, analyzes to obtain Wuyuan County k by comparing1、k2Value is respectively 0.2,0.3.
1 difference k of table1、k2It is worth lower part statistical parameter result
4. by k1=0.2, k2The compound warning index mean value of each section under=0.3 is as the compound warning index threshold of each section
Value.Specifically it is shown in Table 2:
The compound warning index mean value of each section of 2 Wuyuan County of table
According to the compound warning index of Wuyuan County, the concrete scheme of mountain torrents early warning is proposed:
1. Wuyuan County to be started to initial soil moisture content when rainfall, actual measurement or the rainfall of forecast and actual measurement or forecast rainfall
When segment length substitute into above-mentioned calculation formula RTI=(k1*Pa+P)/H^k2, obtain each section of Wuyuan County compound warning index value in real time；
2. real-time compound warning index value and the compound warning index threshold value comparison of each section of Wuyuan County are met or exceeded pre-
Alert threshold value issues mountain torrents early warning；
2. if this moment is not up to threshold value of warning, rainfall is continued to, the subsequent compound warning index in real time of rolling calculation
Value rejudges whether early warning is until rainfall weakens or stops, referring specifically to Fig. 3.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can provide as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or reality combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the application
Apply the form of example.Moreover, it wherein includes the computer of computer usable program code that the application, which can be used in one or more,
The computer program implemented in usable storage medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.) produces
The form of product.
The application is referring to method, the process of equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present application
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that every one stream in flowchart and/or the block diagram can be realized by computer program instructions
The combination of process and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.It can provide these computer programs
Instruct the processor of general purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices to produce
A raw machine, so that being generated by the instruction that computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices execute for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, is able to guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works, so that it includes referring to that instruction stored in the computer readable memory, which generates,
Enable the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one box of one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that counting
Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, thus in computer or
The instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
The embodiment of the present invention is described in conjunction with attached drawing above, but the invention is not limited to above-mentioned specific
Embodiment, the above mentioned embodiment is only schematical, rather than restrictive, those skilled in the art
Under the inspiration of the present invention, without breaking away from the scope protected by the purposes and claims of the present invention, it can also make very much
Form, all of these belong to the protection of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of method for inquiring into compound warning index based on Critical Rainfall characterized by comprising
Obtain the calculation formula RTI=(k of compound warning index RTI1*Pa+P)/H^k2；In formula, k1、k2For coefficient, Pa is early period
Rainfall is influenced, H is the early warning period, and P is to influence rainfall Pa different early periods to combine scene lower critical rainfall value with the early warning period；
Determine coefficient k1And k2Value completes inquiring into for compound warning index.
2. a kind of method for inquiring into compound warning index based on Critical Rainfall according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: institute
State determining coefficient k1And k2Value specifically: the coefficient k obtained based on trial and error procedure1And k2Value.
3. a kind of method for inquiring into compound warning index based on Critical Rainfall according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: institute
State the coefficient k obtained based on trial and error procedure1And k2Value, specifically includes the following steps:
Obtain the section Critical Rainfall value in the case of different influence rainfall Pa early period in target area and early warning period H multiple combinations；
A corresponding early period of the influence rainfall value of each section Critical Rainfall value and an early warning time period value, three constitute a kind of combination feelings
There are multiple sections in condition, a target area, and different section has respective Critical Rainfall value；
Based on the Critical Rainfall value under each combined situation, one group of k is inputted1And k2Value, substitutes into compound warning index calculation formula
In, obtain each compound warning index value of section under the combined situation:
RTIij=(k1*Paij+Pij)/Hij^k2
Wherein, RTIijFor the compound warning index value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation, PaijFor i-th of section jth kind group
Early period in the case of conjunction influences rainfall value, PijFor the Critical Rainfall value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation, HijIt is i-th
Early warning time period value under section jth kind combined situation；
Calculate the compound early warning of mean value, mean square deviation and coefficient of variation and entire target area of the compound warning index value of each section
The variation of mean rate coefficient of index value；
Tentative calculation is until the variation of mean rate coefficient of the compound warning index value in entire target area in the ideal range, obtains k repeatedly1With
k2Value.
4. a kind of method for inquiring into compound warning index based on Critical Rainfall according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: institute
State the mean value RTI of the compound warning index value of each sectioni0Calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, RTIi0For the mean value of the compound warning index value of i-th of section, RTIijIt is multiple under i-th of section jth kind combined situation
Warning index value is closed, n is the number of combined situation.
5. a kind of method for inquiring into compound warning index based on Critical Rainfall according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: institute
State the mean square deviation of the compound warning index value of each sectionCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein,For the mean square deviation of the compound warning index value of i-th of section, RTIi0For the compound warning index value of i-th of section
Mean value, RTIijFor the compound warning index value under i-th of section jth kind combined situation, n is the number of combined situation.
6. a kind of method for inquiring into compound warning index based on Critical Rainfall according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: institute
State the variation coefficient Cv of the compound warning index value of each sectioniCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, CviFor the coefficient of variation of the compound warning index value of i-th of section, whereinRefer to for the compound early warning of i-th of section
The mean square deviation of scale value, RTIi0For the mean value of the compound warning index value of i-th of section.
7. a kind of method for inquiring into compound warning index based on Critical Rainfall according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: institute
State the calculation formula of the variation of mean rate coefficient of the compound warning index value in entire target area are as follows:
Wherein,For the variation of mean rate coefficient of the compound warning index value in entire target area, m is section number, CviIt is i-th
The coefficient of variation of the compound warning index value of section.
8. a kind of device for inquiring into compound warning index based on Critical Rainfall characterized by comprising
Obtain module, the calculation formula RTI=(k for obtaining module and being used to obtain compound warning index RTI1*Pa+P)/H^k2；
In formula, k1、k2For coefficient, Pa is to influence rainfall early period, and H is the early warning period, and P is to influence rainfall Pa and early warning period different early periods
Combine scene lower critical rainfall value；
Coefficient determination module, the coefficient determination module is for determining coefficient k1And k2Value completes pushing away for compound warning index
It asks.
9. a kind of method for early warning based on compound warning index characterized by comprising
Initial soil moisture content, actual measurement or the rainfall of forecast and actual measurement when acquisition beginning rainfall or the duration of raining of forecast are long,
And substitute into the calculation formula RTI=(k of compound warning index RTI of any of claims 1-71*Pa+P)/H^k2, obtain
To real-time compound warning index value；
By compound warning index value and the compound warning index threshold value comparison of section in real time, and executed accordingly according to comparison result
Operation.
10. the method for early warning according to claim 9 based on compound warning index, it is characterised in that: described to answer in real time
Warning index value and the compound warning index threshold value comparison of section are closed, and corresponding operation is executed according to comparison result, wherein is described
The compound warning index threshold value of section be the compound warning index value of section mean value, specifically includes the following steps:
(1) when real-time compound warning index value meets or exceeds the compound warning index threshold value of section, then mountain torrents early warning is issued；
(2) when real-time compound warning index value is less than the compound warning index threshold value of section, and rainfall continues to, then rolling calculation
Subsequent compound warning index value in real time, and judge whether early warning again until rainfall weakens or stops.
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