CN109118035A - Typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment based on gridding warning information - Google Patents
Typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment based on gridding warning information Download PDFInfo
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- CN109118035A CN109118035A CN201810661486.1A CN201810661486A CN109118035A CN 109118035 A CN109118035 A CN 109118035A CN 201810661486 A CN201810661486 A CN 201810661486A CN 109118035 A CN109118035 A CN 109118035A
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of, and the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging based on gridding warning information does harm to power distribution network methods of risk assessment, comprising the following steps: (1) probability of malfunction is assessed；(2) forecast failure generates: generating the direct forecast failure collection caused by typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, and carries out augmenting the complete forecast failure collection generated under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil；(3) Network topology: in conjunction with power distribution network state estimation data, Network topology is carried out to power distribution network, plant stand line information associated with its root node is obtained, the power distribution network under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil is carried out to lose load area assessment, power distribution network is obtained and loses load area；(4) power distribution network risk assessment: the load-loss probability and plant stand that regional distribution network is calculated lose load；According to the important level of load and plant stand load-loss probability, the lower regional distribution network value-at-risk of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil is calculated.The present invention is improved due to using the warning information based on gridding, engineering practicability.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of, and the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging based on gridding warning information does harm to power distribution network methods of risk assessment, belongs to
Power grid is prevented and reduced natural disasters field.
Background technique
Power distribution network is that the high of typhoon disaster causes calamity object.Since power distribution network has natural structure and confession compared to transmission of electricity rack
Electric fragility, as power distribution network scale is continuously increased after urbanization, by the probability of extreme natural calamity weather disruptions
Or risk is increasing.The major inducing factor of power distribution network disaster under typhoon environment is divided into " wind ", " flood " two class.Currently, I
State has tentatively built up the comprehensive survey system based on satellite, weather radar and ground automatic meteorological observing station, Yi Jiguo
Family's grade, regional center and provincial integrated typhoon track numerical forecast business system, substantially increase the pre- of China's typhoon business
Report pre-alerting ability.The power equipment early warning of gridding under publication typhoon disaster is had been provided in relation to scientific research institutions or enterprises and institutions
The ability of information, grid precision is up to 3km*3km, even 1km*1km.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of typhoon based on gridding warning information for power distribution network disaster prevention disaster reduction system
Wind damage caused by waterlogging does harm to power distribution network methods of risk assessment, and due to using the warning information based on gridding, engineering practicability is mentioned
It rises, the present invention can assist in relevant departments or personnel formulate power distribution network typhoon protection prediction scheme and repairing telegram in reply goods and materials programs.
To achieve the goals above, the present invention is to realize by the following technical solutions:
Typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment based on gridding warning information of the invention, including following step
It is rapid:
(1) probability of malfunction is assessed: the external lower Distribution Network Equipment of the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil based on gridding provided of access is accused
Alert information realizes that Distribution Network Equipment warning information and Distribution Network Equipment probability of malfunction are converted, and calculates line fault probability；
(2) forecast failure generates: being generated according to the distribution network line fault information that step (1) obtains by typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil
Caused direct forecast failure collection；The direct forecast failure collection is augmented, is generated complete pre- under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil
Think fault set；
(3) Network topology: the forecast failure information based on the lower power distribution network of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, and combine electric power
Company automates the power distribution network state estimation data that department provides, and carries out Network topology to power distribution network, obtains plant stand and its
The associated line information of root node, further combined with distribution network line fault information, to the power distribution network under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil
It carries out losing load area assessment, obtains power distribution network and lose load area；
(4) power distribution network risk assessment: the power distribution network obtained based on step (3) loses load area, and region distribution is calculated
The load-loss probability and plant stand of net lose load；In conjunction with the important level of load, the lower region of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil is calculated
Power distribution network value-at-risk, and export.
In step (1), the lower Distribution Network Equipment warning information of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil of the gridding accessed can be characterized as below:
With the space scale of p (km) * q (km) by survey region gridding, G is usedaIt indicates, wherein a is the volume of the grid
Number；
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, grid GaInterior, the disconnection fault alarm grade of route l isThe disconnected bar that falls of shaft tower t alerts
Grade isPlant stand s by flood alarm grade be WithIt is affected by wind,Caused by flood.
In step (1), the specific method of realization Distribution Network Equipment warning information and the conversion of Distribution Network Equipment probability of malfunction is such as
Under:
Set the transformational relation of grid equipment alarm and probability of malfunction, that is, under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, grid GaIt is interior, route l
Disconnection fault alert gradeCorresponding disconnection fault probabilityThe disconnected bar that falls of shaft tower t alerts gradeFor bar failure of falling to break
ProbabilityPlant stand s's is alerted grade by floodIt corresponds to by flooded probability of malfunction
In step (1), the line fault probability calculation is divided into two parts, method particularly includes:
Firstly, calculating route probability of malfunction in grid:
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, grid GaIt is interior, the probability of malfunction P of route lI(a):
In formula, x is span number of the route l in grid, and y is shaft tower number of the route l in grid, and z is route l in grid
Interior associated plant stand number；
Then, whole route probability of malfunction is calculated:
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, the overall failure probability P of route ll:
In formula, the grid number that n is passed through by route l, Pl(a)It is route l in grid GaInterior probability of malfunction.
In step (4), the specific calculation method of plant stand load-loss probability is as follows:
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, the load-loss probability P of plant stand ss:
In formula, m is plant stand s route number associated with its root node, PlFor the probability of malfunction of route l,For plant stand s's
By flooded probability.
In step (4), the lower specific calculation method of regional distribution network value-at-risk of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil is as follows:
If regional distribution network is corresponding with plant stand s, and load associated by plant stand s is Ls, then regional distribution network value-at-risk Rs
It is defined as follows:
Rs=θs·Ps·Ls
In formula, θsFor adjustable weight coefficient, by LsSignificance level off-line analysis obtain；LsState estimation can be passed through
Node power in data counts to obtain.
Compared with conventional electrical distribution net methods of risk assessment, this method is due to using the warning information based on gridding, work
Journey practicability is improved；In the risk that power distribution network faces under assessing typhoon disaster, while counting and " wind " and " flood " is right
The influence of power distribution network；In addition, the important level of load is also taken into account, provides for power distribution network disaster prevention system and more fully determine
Plan support.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the work of the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment of the invention based on gridding warning information
Flow chart.
Specific embodiment
To be easy to understand the technical means, the creative features, the aims and the efficiencies achieved by the present invention, below with reference to
Specific embodiment, the present invention is further explained.
Referring to Fig. 1, a kind of lower power distribution network risk assessment of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil based on gridding warning information of the invention
Method, comprising the following steps:
Step 1: probability of malfunction assessment
Firstly, the Distribution Network Equipment warning information based on the lower gridding of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, by warning grade and equipment event
Barrier probability is converted.
With the space scale of p (km) * q (km) by survey region gridding, G is usedaIt indicates, wherein a is the volume of the grid
Number.Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, grid GaInterior, the disconnection fault alarm grade of route l isThe disconnected bar that falls of shaft tower t alerts grade
ForPlant stand s by flood alarm grade be WithMainly influenced by " wind ",Mainly caused by " flood ".
Based on historical statistics analysis, data mining, expertise and field operation experiences, grid equipment alarm and event can be obtained
Hinder the transformational relation of probability.That is, under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, grid GaInterior, the disconnection fault of route l alerts gradeCorresponding broken string
Probability of malfunctionThe disconnected bar that falls of shaft tower t alerts gradeFor the bar probability of malfunction that falls to breakPlant stand s's is alerted grade by flood
It corresponds to by flooded probability of malfunction
Then distribution network line fault probability in grid is calculated.
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, grid GaIt is interior, the probability of malfunction P of route ll(a):
In formula, x is span number of the route l in grid, and y is shaft tower number of the route l in grid, and z is route l in grid
Interior associated plant stand number.According to the scale and feature of distribution line, the value of z is general are as follows: 1 or 2.
Distribution line overall failure probability is calculated again.
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, the overall failure probability P of route ll:
In formula, the grid number that n is passed through by route l, Pl(a)It is route l in grid GaInterior probability of malfunction.
Step 2: forecast failure generates
The distribution network line fault information exported first according to probability of malfunction evaluation function module is generated, is generated by typhoon wind
Direct forecast failure collection caused by damage caused by waterlogging evil.
Then on the basis of direct forecast failure collection, further combined with Distribution Network Equipment model data (such as: by double loop
Range will be accounted for by losing the influence of load and its relevant failure to plant stand), direct forecast failure collection is augmented, is generated
Complete forecast failure collection under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil.
Step 3: Network topology
It is primarily based on the forecast failure information of the lower power distribution network of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, and combines power distribution network state estimation data,
Network topology is carried out to power distribution network, obtains plant stand line information associated with its root node.
Then then mistake load area assessment (i.e. isolated island assessment) is carried out to the power distribution network under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil and obtains orphan
Island area information.
Step 4: power distribution network risk assessment
Plant stand load-loss probability relevant to regional distribution network is calculated first.
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, the load-loss probability P of plant stand ss:
In formula, m is plant stand s route number associated with its root node, PlFor the probability of malfunction of route l,For plant stand s's
By flooded probability.
It is then based on the isolated island information (i.e. power distribution network mistake load area) that step 3 evaluates, and combines the corresponding factory of isolated island
It stands institute's on-load information, obtains plant stand and lose load Ls(the as mistake load of the distribution web area).
Important level and plant stand load-loss probability in conjunction with load obtain the lower region distribution risk of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil
Value, and output is taken precautions against natural calamities to power distribution network and decision system.Risk value calculating method is as follows:
If regional distribution network is corresponding with plant stand s, and load associated by plant stand s is Ls, then the regional distribution network risk
Value RsIt is defined as follows:
Rs=θs·Ps·Ls
In formula, θsFor adjustable weight coefficient, by LsSignificance level off-line analysis obtain；LsState estimation can be passed through
Node power in data counts to obtain.
Compared with conventional electrical distribution net methods of risk assessment, the lower power distribution network of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil based on gridding warning information
Methods of risk assessment is improved due to using the warning information based on gridding, engineering practicability；In assessment typhoon calamity
When the risk that the lower power distribution network of evil faces, while counting and the influence of " wind " and " flood " to power distribution network；In addition, the important level of load
Also it is taken into account, provides more fully decision support for power distribution network disaster prevention system.
The above shows and describes the basic principles and main features of the present invention and the advantages of the present invention.The technology of the industry
Personnel are it should be appreciated that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and the above embodiments and description only describe this
The principle of invention, without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, various changes and improvements may be made to the invention, these changes
Change and improvement all fall within the protetion scope of the claimed invention.The claimed scope of the invention by appended claims and its
Equivalent thereof.
Claims (6)
1. the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment based on gridding warning information, which is characterized in that including following
Step:
(1) probability of malfunction is assessed: the external lower Distribution Network Equipment alarm letter of the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil based on gridding provided of access
Breath realizes that Distribution Network Equipment warning information and Distribution Network Equipment probability of malfunction are converted, and calculates line fault probability；
(2) forecast failure generates: being generated caused by typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil directly according to the line fault probability that step (1) obtains
Forecast failure collection；The direct forecast failure collection is augmented, the complete forecast failure collection under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil is generated；
(3) Network topology: the complete forecast failure collection based on the lower power distribution network of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, and combine power distribution network
Data of State Estimation carries out Network topology to power distribution network, plant stand line information associated with its root node is obtained, into one
Combined circuit probability of malfunction is walked, the power distribution network under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil is carried out to lose load area assessment, it is negative to obtain power distribution network mistake
Lotus region；
(4) power distribution network risk assessment: the power distribution network obtained based on step (3) loses load area, and regional distribution network is calculated
Load-loss probability and plant stand lose load；The lower regional distribution network of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil is calculated in conjunction with the important level of load
Value-at-risk, and export.
2. the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment according to claim 1 based on gridding warning information,
It is characterized in that, the lower Distribution Network Equipment warning information of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil of the gridding accessed can characterize such as in step (1)
Under:
With the space scale of p (km) * q (km) by survey region gridding, G is usedaIt indicates, wherein a is the number of the grid；
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, grid GaInterior, the disconnection fault alarm grade of route l isThe disconnected bar that falls of shaft tower t alerts grade
ForPlant stand s by flood alarm grade be WithIt is affected by wind,Caused by flood.
3. the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment according to claim 2 based on gridding warning information,
It is characterized in that,
In step (1), realize that the specific method is as follows for Distribution Network Equipment warning information and the conversion of Distribution Network Equipment probability of malfunction:
Set the transformational relation of grid equipment alarm and probability of malfunction, that is, under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, grid GaInterior, route l's is disconnected
Line fault warning gradeCorresponding disconnection fault probabilityThe disconnected bar that falls of shaft tower t alerts gradeFor the bar probability of malfunction that falls to breakPlant stand s's is alerted grade by floodIt corresponds to by flooded probability of malfunction
4. the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment according to claim 3 based on gridding warning information,
It is characterized in that,
In step (1), the line fault probability calculation is divided into two parts, method particularly includes:
Firstly, calculating route probability of malfunction in grid:
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, grid GaIt is interior, the probability of malfunction P of route ll(a):
In formula, x is span number of the route l in grid, and y is shaft tower number of the route l in grid, z institute in grid for route l
Associated plant stand number；
Then, whole route probability of malfunction is calculated:
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, the overall failure probability P of route ll:
In formula, the grid number that n is passed through by route l, Pl(a)It is route l in grid GaInterior probability of malfunction.
5. the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment according to claim 4 based on gridding warning information,
It is characterized in that, the specific calculation method of plant stand load-loss probability is as follows in step (4):
Under typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil, the load-loss probability P of plant stand ss:
In formula, m is plant stand s route number associated with its root node, PlFor the probability of malfunction of route l,It is plant stand s by flood
Probability.
6. the typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil power distribution network methods of risk assessment according to claim 5 based on gridding warning information,
It is characterized in that, the lower specific calculation method of regional distribution network value-at-risk of typhoon wind damage caused by waterlogging evil is as follows in step (4):
If regional distribution network is corresponding with plant stand s, and it is L that plant stand associated by plant stand s, which loses load,s, then the regional distribution network risk
Value RsIt is defined as follows:
Rs=θs·Ps·Ls
In formula, θsFor adjustable weight coefficient, by LsSignificance level off-line analysis obtain；LsData of State Estimation can be passed through
In node power count to obtain.
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| CN110097223A (en) * | 2019-04-30 | 2019-08-06 | 武汉理工大学 | Early warning method for damage of power transmission line under typhoon disaster |
| CN111062604A (en) * | 2019-12-12 | 2020-04-24 | 国家电网有限公司大数据中心 | Power grid service risk assessment method, device and equipment based on meteorological disasters |
| CN112421767A (en) * | 2020-09-30 | 2021-02-26 | 云南电网有限责任公司西双版纳供电局 | Power grid disaster prevention emergency panoramic monitoring method and device |
| CN113177858A (en) * | 2021-03-31 | 2021-07-27 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司温州供电公司 | Multi-dimensional power grid typhoon resistance evaluation method |
| CN113344238A (en) * | 2021-03-29 | 2021-09-03 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Power distribution network security risk assessment and reduction method, device and storage medium |
| CN114444886A (en) * | 2021-12-30 | 2022-05-06 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司温州供电公司 | Analysis method based power distribution network damage probability evaluation method under typhoon disaster |
| CN115830813A (en) * | 2023-02-15 | 2023-03-21 | 江西和壹科技有限公司 | Natural disaster monitoring and early warning system based on AI technology |
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| CN113177858A (en) * | 2021-03-31 | 2021-07-27 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司温州供电公司 | Multi-dimensional power grid typhoon resistance evaluation method |
| CN113177858B (en) * | 2021-03-31 | 2022-11-08 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司温州供电公司 | Multi-dimensional power grid typhoon resistance evaluation method |
| CN114444886A (en) * | 2021-12-30 | 2022-05-06 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司温州供电公司 | Analysis method based power distribution network damage probability evaluation method under typhoon disaster |
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