CN109086978A - A kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment - Google Patents
A kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种雨水排水系统内涝风险评估方法，包括以下步骤：(1)按照气象标准中的大雨标准，从历史降雨数据中选取一定数量的降雨事件；(2)在传统的降雨事件特征参数的基础上，增加反映降雨不均匀性对排水系统的影响的降雨事件特征参数；(3)根据降雨事件特征参数对待评估排水系统的内涝敏感性，选取排水系统发生内涝的降雨敏感性参数，并确定内涝发生的降雨敏感性参数阈值，得到排水系统内涝发生的失效域；(4)以降雨敏感性参数为特征参数，建立降雨概率密度函数，用于描述降雨的概率分布；(5)根据降雨概率密度函数在步骤(3)的排水系统失效域中的积分，计算降雨特征参数出现在失效域中的概率，得到排水系统发生内涝的几率。The invention discloses a method for assessing the risk of waterlogging in a rainwater drainage system, comprising the following steps: (1) selecting a certain number of rainfall events from historical rainfall data according to the heavy rain standard in meteorological standards; (2) selecting a certain number of rainfall events from historical rainfall data; On the basis of the above parameters, the characteristic parameters of rainfall events reflecting the impact of rainfall inhomogeneity on the drainage system are added; (3) according to the characteristic parameters of rainfall events to evaluate the waterlogging sensitivity of the drainage system, the rainfall sensitivity parameters of waterlogging in the drainage system are selected, And determine the threshold value of the rainfall sensitivity parameter for waterlogging to obtain the failure domain of waterlogging in the drainage system; (4) use the rainfall sensitivity parameter as the characteristic parameter to establish a rainfall probability density function to describe the probability distribution of rainfall; (5) according to Integrate the rainfall probability density function in the failure domain of the drainage system in step (3), calculate the probability that the rainfall characteristic parameters appear in the failure domain, and obtain the probability of waterlogging in the drainage system.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the Performance Evaluation technical field of drainage system against rain and design scheme, in particular to a kind of rainwater row
Water system waterlogging methods of risk assessment.
Background technique
Urban rainwater drainage system is responsible for discharge rainfall runoff, the effect for preventing waterlogging from occurring.The design of drainage system
It calculates unequal generally according to rainfall in the concentration time is defaulted as when being designed under the rainfall of different reoccurrence, and designing calculating
Even rainfall, there are larger differences between true random rainfall for this.Therefore, when completing Water drainage system design, to how more preferable
The considerations of under true rainfall is random and non-uniform actual conditions, it is targetedly assessed and waterlogging Risk Calculation, it is right
Optimize Water drainage system design, promotes drainage system operation and be of great significance.
Currently, Performance Evaluation and the waterlogging Risk Calculation of drainage system there is several methods that, first is that according to obtained by I-D-F curve
Rainfall on the basis of design rainfall pattern, form design storm for drainage system water drainage Performance Evaluation and waterlogging Risk Calculation, but
Common rainfall pattern Chicago, Chicago rainfall pattern peak value raininess is bigger than normal, excessively safe in design and assessment.Triangle rainfall pattern is gone through
When, influences more significant, and cannot effectively protrude the effect of peak value raininess, influence the reliability of design and assessment.It is another
Method is to carry out computer Long-Term Simulations using long sequence rainfall data, lasts simulation calculating by long, counts annual waterlogging hair
The raw frequency, to assess and calculate water drainage effect and waterlogging occurrence probability of the drainage system in actual moving process.
But the above method requires data volume big, calculating is at high cost, and risk probability, which calculates, depends on the continuous of rainfall data
Property and long when property, adaptability are poor.The sewerage system performance estimating method and waterlogging for finding efficiently and accurately calculate means pair
Reinforce management of drainage system, promotes drainage system operational efficiency and have a very important role.
Summary of the invention
The present invention provides a kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment, can simplify calculating using this method
On the basis of, improve the accuracy of drainage system Performance Evaluation and waterlogging Risk Calculation.
A kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment, comprising the following steps:
(1) according to the heavy rain standard in meteorological standard, a certain number of catchments are chosen from history rainfall data；
(2) on the basis of traditional catchment characteristic parameter, increase reflection rainfall inhomogeneities to drainage system
The catchment characteristic parameter of influence；
(3) according to the catchment characteristic parameter in step (2) to the waterlogging sensibility of drainage system to be assessed, from rainfall
The rainfall responsive parameter that waterlogging occurs for drainage system is chosen in affair character parameter, and determines the rainfall sensibility that waterlogging occurs
Parameter threshold obtains the characteristics of rainfall value section of drainage system waterlogging generation, is defined as drainage system failure domain；
(4) parameter characterized by the rainfall responsive parameter in step (3), establishes rainfall probability density function, for retouching
State the probability distribution of rainfall；
(5) integral according to the rainfall probability density function in step (4) in the drainage system failure domain of step (3),
Calculating rainfall characteristic parameter appears in the probability in failure domain, and then obtains the probability that waterlogging occurs for drainage system.
In order to guarantee that accuracy and precision, certain amount refer to about 100 groups or more of catchment.
Traditional catchment characteristic parameter includes but are not limited to average rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, rainfall.
The case where overflowing for drainage system under the catchment of different characteristic parameter counts each characteristic parameter and feature ginseng
Array conjunction and the correlation between the occurrence degree that overflows, according to the catchment characteristic parameter in step (2) to draining to be assessed
The characteristic parameter (or characteristic parameter combination) that correlation reaches 0.9 or more is determined as the draining system by the waterlogging sensibility of system
The waterlogging sensivity feature parameter of system, to choose and determine that the rainfall responsive parameter of waterlogging occurs for drainage system；
On the basis of correlation analysis, when the region waterlogging reach certain standard (roadside depth of accumulated water be greater than 15cm, or
The road-center ponding time is greater than 1h, and ponding range is more than 50m2), and determine the rainfall responsive parameter threshold value that waterlogging occurs,
The characteristics of rainfall value section of drainage system waterlogging generation is obtained, drainage system failure domain is defined as；
Determine drainage system occur waterlogging rainfall responsive parameter, rainfall responsive parameter can with drainage system feature into
Row adjustment and optimization.It determines that the rainfall characteristic parameter threshold value of waterlogging occurs for drainage system, and is established according to different drainage systems
Failure domain.
Rainfall responsive parameter is that variable establishes rainfall probability distribution function by the present invention, and the rainfall calculated in failure domain goes out
The existing frequency reaches reduction and calculates cost, improve meter so that waterlogging Risk Calculation to be transformed into the calculating for causing the calamity rainfall frequency of occurrences
Calculate the requirement of precision.
Preferably, the catchment characteristic parameter of influence of the reflection rainfall inhomogeneities to drainage system be 5min~
30min peak value raininess.In view of the charge for remittance time and basin charge for remittance time of inlet for stom water, it is further preferred that catchment feature
Parameter is 10min peak value raininess, 20min peak value raininess and 30min peak value raininess.
Other than peak value raininess, it is also an option that other catchment characteristic parameters, reflect rainfall inhomogeneities to row
While the influence of water system, the characteristic parameter of synchronous reaction catchment entirety size is rainfall intensity.
It influences each other to reflect drainage system and store water level between water body, it is preferred that in step (2), before peak
Rainfall is also used as catchment characteristic parameter.
According to the correlation of different characteristic parameter (or combination of different characteristic parameter) and drainage system waterlogging situation occurred,
Preferably, in step (3), choosing drainage system the rainfall responsive parameter of waterlogging occurs is peak value raininess and average rainfall intensity.
Preferably, in step (4), rainfall probability density function is established specifically: build according to peak value raininess and average rainfall intensity
Vertical joint probability density function, above two parameters can accurately reflect the shadow that catchment integrally occurs drainage system waterlogging
It rings.
In order to improve the accuracy and precision of calculating, it is preferred that in step 4, constructed using the method for copula more
Parameter rainfall probability distribution function.
In order to improve the accuracy and precision of calculating, it is preferred that in step (5), waterlogging occurs for obtained drainage system
The calculation formula of probability are as follows:
In formula, Ci represents the probability that catchment occurs in waterlogging region, and Cj represents rainfall thing in non-waterlogging region
The probability that part occurs, xi, yi, xj, yjDifferent characteristic parameter values is represented, i, j are serial number.
Beneficial effects of the present invention:
Drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment of the invention changes the calculating of drainage system waterlogging probability of happening
Random rainfall has also been fully considered to reduce the operation of hydraulic pipeline model at the calculating of cause calamity rainfall occurrence frequency
Inhomogeneities and uncertain, also improves the Evaluation accuracy of waterlogging risk while reducing calculation amount.
Detailed description of the invention
The drainage system schematic diagram of the city Tu1Wei Mou old town.
Fig. 2 is the failure domain that average rainfall intensity and maximum 30min peak value raininess determine.
Specific embodiment
As shown in Figure 1, certain city old town is the central area in urban district, surrounding is using belt river as boundary, the total face of planned land use
Product is 237.7 hectares, is whole city's top grade, high-grade, the business of high benefit, amusement, financial trade, information centre.Due to
Drainage system the built time is more early, and run-off system is confluence of rainwater and sewage system, and since pipe design standard is relatively low, in pole in region
Ponding and waterlogging has occurred under the rainfall of end.
The drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment of the present embodiment the following steps are included:
(1) from 1249 independent catchments of 30 annual rainfall data, it would be possible to which lead to waterlogging reaches heavy rain
The catchment of rank screens, and finishing screen selects 162 secondary catchments that may cause urban waterlogging disaster.
(2) multiple catchment characteristic parameters are chosen；
(3) using model for drainage system experiment and sensitivity analysis, from multiple catchment characteristic parameters and characteristic parameter
In combination, chooses and reach 0.9 with waterlogging occurrence degree correlation, and the highest characteristic parameter combination of correlation is used as sensitive features
Parameter, so that it is determined that the rainfall responsive parameter that waterlogging occurs for the drainage is the average rainfall intensity and 30min peak value rain of rainfall
By force, the two parameters of final choice are used to assess waterlogging risk as rainfall responsive parameter, according to above-mentioned waterlogging standard (roadside
Depth of accumulated water is greater than 15cm or the road-center ponding time is greater than 1h, and ponding range is more than 50m2), determine the ginseng that waterlogging occurs
Number threshold value, specifies the characteristics of rainfall value section of drainage system waterlogging generation, can be described as drainage system failure domain, as shown in Figure 2.
(4) colupa method is used, peak value raininess is established and average rainfall intensity establishes joint probability density function.
(5) it is appeared in failure domain according to rainfall probability density function in the integral calculation rainfall characteristic parameter in failure domain
Probability, obtain the calculation formula of waterlogging risk probability are as follows:
In formula, Ci represents the probability that catchment occurs in waterlogging region, and Cj represents rainfall thing in non-waterlogging region
The probability that part occurs, xi, yi, xj, yjDifferent characteristic parameter values is represented, i, j are serial number.
The result being finally calculated is that region generation waterlogging risk probability is 0.29.
In conclusion the drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment of the present embodiment, drainage system waterlogging is occurred general
The calculating of rate, which is transformed into, causes the calculating of calamity rainfall occurrence frequency also to fully consider to reduce the operation of hydraulic pipeline model
The inhomogeneities of random rainfall and uncertain, also improves the Evaluation accuracy of waterlogging risk while reducing calculation amount.
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110991046A (en) * | 2019-12-04 | 2020-04-10 | 浙江大学 | A rapid early warning method for waterlogging risk in drainage system based on response surface function |
| CN111738617A (en) * | 2020-07-01 | 2020-10-02 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Transformer substation risk assessment method and early warning system in heavy rainfall weather |
| CN112861325A (en) * | 2021-01-20 | 2021-05-28 | 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 | Design method and device of water discharge system, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN113221439A (en) * | 2021-04-07 | 2021-08-06 | 浙江大学 | BP neural network-based drainage system real-time calibration and dynamic prediction method |
| CN115372576A (en) * | 2022-08-19 | 2022-11-22 | 河海大学 | Method for evaluating influence of rainfall event on water quality of combined system drainage pump station |
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Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110991046A (en) * | 2019-12-04 | 2020-04-10 | 浙江大学 | A rapid early warning method for waterlogging risk in drainage system based on response surface function |
| CN110991046B (en) * | 2019-12-04 | 2021-07-09 | 浙江大学 | A rapid early warning method for waterlogging risk in drainage system based on response surface function |
| CN111738617A (en) * | 2020-07-01 | 2020-10-02 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Transformer substation risk assessment method and early warning system in heavy rainfall weather |
| CN111738617B (en) * | 2020-07-01 | 2023-12-26 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Transformer substation risk assessment method and early warning system in heavy rainfall weather |
| CN112861325A (en) * | 2021-01-20 | 2021-05-28 | 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 | Design method and device of water discharge system, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN112861325B (en) * | 2021-01-20 | 2023-02-21 | 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 | Design method and device of water discharge system, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN113221439A (en) * | 2021-04-07 | 2021-08-06 | 浙江大学 | BP neural network-based drainage system real-time calibration and dynamic prediction method |
| CN113221439B (en) * | 2021-04-07 | 2022-11-25 | 浙江大学 | A Real-time Calibration and Dynamic Prediction Method of Drainage System Based on BP Neural Network |
| CN115372576A (en) * | 2022-08-19 | 2022-11-22 | 河海大学 | Method for evaluating influence of rainfall event on water quality of combined system drainage pump station |
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Application publication date: 20181225 |