CN109086978A - A kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment - Google Patents

A kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment Download PDF

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CN109086978A
CN109086978A CN201810770968.0A CN201810770968A CN109086978A CN 109086978 A CN109086978 A CN 109086978A CN 201810770968 A CN201810770968 A CN 201810770968A CN 109086978 A CN109086978 A CN 109086978A
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rainfall
drainage system
waterlogging
parameter
catchment
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周永潮
张仪萍
张土乔
黄宁
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Zhejiang University ZJU
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment, comprising the following steps: (1) according to the heavy rain standard in meteorological standard, chooses a certain number of catchments from history rainfall data;(2) on the basis of traditional catchment characteristic parameter, increase the catchment characteristic parameter of influence of the reflection rainfall inhomogeneities to drainage system;(3) the rainfall responsive parameter that waterlogging occurs for drainage system is chosen to the waterlogging sensibility of drainage system to be assessed according to catchment characteristic parameter, and determines the rainfall responsive parameter threshold value that waterlogging occurs, obtain the failure domain of drainage system waterlogging generation;(4) parameter characterized by rainfall responsive parameter, establishes rainfall probability density function, for describing the probability distribution of rainfall;(5) integral according to rainfall probability density function in the drainage system failure domain of step (3), calculating rainfall characteristic parameter appear in the probability in failure domain, obtain the probability that waterlogging occurs for drainage system.

Description

A kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment
Technical field
The present invention relates to the Performance Evaluation technical field of drainage system against rain and design scheme, in particular to a kind of rainwater row Water system waterlogging methods of risk assessment.
Background technique
Urban rainwater drainage system is responsible for discharge rainfall runoff, the effect for preventing waterlogging from occurring.The design of drainage system It calculates unequal generally according to rainfall in the concentration time is defaulted as when being designed under the rainfall of different reoccurrence, and designing calculating Even rainfall, there are larger differences between true random rainfall for this.Therefore, when completing Water drainage system design, to how more preferable The considerations of under true rainfall is random and non-uniform actual conditions, it is targetedly assessed and waterlogging Risk Calculation, it is right Optimize Water drainage system design, promotes drainage system operation and be of great significance.
Currently, Performance Evaluation and the waterlogging Risk Calculation of drainage system there is several methods that, first is that according to obtained by I-D-F curve Rainfall on the basis of design rainfall pattern, form design storm for drainage system water drainage Performance Evaluation and waterlogging Risk Calculation, but Common rainfall pattern Chicago, Chicago rainfall pattern peak value raininess is bigger than normal, excessively safe in design and assessment.Triangle rainfall pattern is gone through When, influences more significant, and cannot effectively protrude the effect of peak value raininess, influence the reliability of design and assessment.It is another Method is to carry out computer Long-Term Simulations using long sequence rainfall data, lasts simulation calculating by long, counts annual waterlogging hair The raw frequency, to assess and calculate water drainage effect and waterlogging occurrence probability of the drainage system in actual moving process.
But the above method requires data volume big, calculating is at high cost, and risk probability, which calculates, depends on the continuous of rainfall data Property and long when property, adaptability are poor.The sewerage system performance estimating method and waterlogging for finding efficiently and accurately calculate means pair Reinforce management of drainage system, promotes drainage system operational efficiency and have a very important role.
Summary of the invention
The present invention provides a kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment, can simplify calculating using this method On the basis of, improve the accuracy of drainage system Performance Evaluation and waterlogging Risk Calculation.
A kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment, comprising the following steps:
(1) according to the heavy rain standard in meteorological standard, a certain number of catchments are chosen from history rainfall data;
(2) on the basis of traditional catchment characteristic parameter, increase reflection rainfall inhomogeneities to drainage system The catchment characteristic parameter of influence;
(3) according to the catchment characteristic parameter in step (2) to the waterlogging sensibility of drainage system to be assessed, from rainfall The rainfall responsive parameter that waterlogging occurs for drainage system is chosen in affair character parameter, and determines the rainfall sensibility that waterlogging occurs Parameter threshold obtains the characteristics of rainfall value section of drainage system waterlogging generation, is defined as drainage system failure domain;
(4) parameter characterized by the rainfall responsive parameter in step (3), establishes rainfall probability density function, for retouching State the probability distribution of rainfall;
(5) integral according to the rainfall probability density function in step (4) in the drainage system failure domain of step (3), Calculating rainfall characteristic parameter appears in the probability in failure domain, and then obtains the probability that waterlogging occurs for drainage system.
In order to guarantee that accuracy and precision, certain amount refer to about 100 groups or more of catchment.
Traditional catchment characteristic parameter includes but are not limited to average rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, rainfall.
The case where overflowing for drainage system under the catchment of different characteristic parameter counts each characteristic parameter and feature ginseng Array conjunction and the correlation between the occurrence degree that overflows, according to the catchment characteristic parameter in step (2) to draining to be assessed The characteristic parameter (or characteristic parameter combination) that correlation reaches 0.9 or more is determined as the draining system by the waterlogging sensibility of system The waterlogging sensivity feature parameter of system, to choose and determine that the rainfall responsive parameter of waterlogging occurs for drainage system;
On the basis of correlation analysis, when the region waterlogging reach certain standard (roadside depth of accumulated water be greater than 15cm, or The road-center ponding time is greater than 1h, and ponding range is more than 50m2), and determine the rainfall responsive parameter threshold value that waterlogging occurs, The characteristics of rainfall value section of drainage system waterlogging generation is obtained, drainage system failure domain is defined as;
Determine drainage system occur waterlogging rainfall responsive parameter, rainfall responsive parameter can with drainage system feature into Row adjustment and optimization.It determines that the rainfall characteristic parameter threshold value of waterlogging occurs for drainage system, and is established according to different drainage systems Failure domain.
Rainfall responsive parameter is that variable establishes rainfall probability distribution function by the present invention, and the rainfall calculated in failure domain goes out The existing frequency reaches reduction and calculates cost, improve meter so that waterlogging Risk Calculation to be transformed into the calculating for causing the calamity rainfall frequency of occurrences Calculate the requirement of precision.
Preferably, the catchment characteristic parameter of influence of the reflection rainfall inhomogeneities to drainage system be 5min~ 30min peak value raininess.In view of the charge for remittance time and basin charge for remittance time of inlet for stom water, it is further preferred that catchment feature Parameter is 10min peak value raininess, 20min peak value raininess and 30min peak value raininess.
Other than peak value raininess, it is also an option that other catchment characteristic parameters, reflect rainfall inhomogeneities to row While the influence of water system, the characteristic parameter of synchronous reaction catchment entirety size is rainfall intensity.
It influences each other to reflect drainage system and store water level between water body, it is preferred that in step (2), before peak Rainfall is also used as catchment characteristic parameter.
According to the correlation of different characteristic parameter (or combination of different characteristic parameter) and drainage system waterlogging situation occurred, Preferably, in step (3), choosing drainage system the rainfall responsive parameter of waterlogging occurs is peak value raininess and average rainfall intensity.
Preferably, in step (4), rainfall probability density function is established specifically: build according to peak value raininess and average rainfall intensity Vertical joint probability density function, above two parameters can accurately reflect the shadow that catchment integrally occurs drainage system waterlogging It rings.
In order to improve the accuracy and precision of calculating, it is preferred that in step 4, constructed using the method for copula more Parameter rainfall probability distribution function.
In order to improve the accuracy and precision of calculating, it is preferred that in step (5), waterlogging occurs for obtained drainage system The calculation formula of probability are as follows:
In formula, Ci represents the probability that catchment occurs in waterlogging region, and Cj represents rainfall thing in non-waterlogging region The probability that part occurs, xi, yi, xj, yjDifferent characteristic parameter values is represented, i, j are serial number.
Beneficial effects of the present invention:
Drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment of the invention changes the calculating of drainage system waterlogging probability of happening Random rainfall has also been fully considered to reduce the operation of hydraulic pipeline model at the calculating of cause calamity rainfall occurrence frequency Inhomogeneities and uncertain, also improves the Evaluation accuracy of waterlogging risk while reducing calculation amount.
Detailed description of the invention
The drainage system schematic diagram of the city Tu1Wei Mou old town.
Fig. 2 is the failure domain that average rainfall intensity and maximum 30min peak value raininess determine.
Specific embodiment
As shown in Figure 1, certain city old town is the central area in urban district, surrounding is using belt river as boundary, the total face of planned land use Product is 237.7 hectares, is whole city's top grade, high-grade, the business of high benefit, amusement, financial trade, information centre.Due to Drainage system the built time is more early, and run-off system is confluence of rainwater and sewage system, and since pipe design standard is relatively low, in pole in region Ponding and waterlogging has occurred under the rainfall of end.
The drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment of the present embodiment the following steps are included:
(1) from 1249 independent catchments of 30 annual rainfall data, it would be possible to which lead to waterlogging reaches heavy rain The catchment of rank screens, and finishing screen selects 162 secondary catchments that may cause urban waterlogging disaster.
(2) multiple catchment characteristic parameters are chosen;
(3) using model for drainage system experiment and sensitivity analysis, from multiple catchment characteristic parameters and characteristic parameter In combination, chooses and reach 0.9 with waterlogging occurrence degree correlation, and the highest characteristic parameter combination of correlation is used as sensitive features Parameter, so that it is determined that the rainfall responsive parameter that waterlogging occurs for the drainage is the average rainfall intensity and 30min peak value rain of rainfall By force, the two parameters of final choice are used to assess waterlogging risk as rainfall responsive parameter, according to above-mentioned waterlogging standard (roadside Depth of accumulated water is greater than 15cm or the road-center ponding time is greater than 1h, and ponding range is more than 50m2), determine the ginseng that waterlogging occurs Number threshold value, specifies the characteristics of rainfall value section of drainage system waterlogging generation, can be described as drainage system failure domain, as shown in Figure 2.
(4) colupa method is used, peak value raininess is established and average rainfall intensity establishes joint probability density function.
(5) it is appeared in failure domain according to rainfall probability density function in the integral calculation rainfall characteristic parameter in failure domain Probability, obtain the calculation formula of waterlogging risk probability are as follows:
In formula, Ci represents the probability that catchment occurs in waterlogging region, and Cj represents rainfall thing in non-waterlogging region The probability that part occurs, xi, yi, xj, yjDifferent characteristic parameter values is represented, i, j are serial number.
The result being finally calculated is that region generation waterlogging risk probability is 0.29.
In conclusion the drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment of the present embodiment, drainage system waterlogging is occurred general The calculating of rate, which is transformed into, causes the calculating of calamity rainfall occurrence frequency also to fully consider to reduce the operation of hydraulic pipeline model The inhomogeneities of random rainfall and uncertain, also improves the Evaluation accuracy of waterlogging risk while reducing calculation amount.

Claims (7)

1. a kind of drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment, which comprises the following steps:
(1) according to the heavy rain standard in meteorological standard, a certain number of catchments are chosen from history rainfall data;
(2) on the basis of traditional catchment characteristic parameter, increase influence of the reflection rainfall inhomogeneities to drainage system Catchment characteristic parameter;
(3) according to the catchment characteristic parameter in step (2) to the waterlogging sensibility of drainage system to be assessed, from catchment The rainfall responsive parameter that waterlogging occurs for drainage system is chosen in characteristic parameter, and determines the rainfall responsive parameter that waterlogging occurs Threshold value obtains the characteristics of rainfall value section of drainage system waterlogging generation, is defined as drainage system failure domain;
(4) parameter characterized by the rainfall responsive parameter in step (3), establishes rainfall probability density function, for describing drop The probability distribution of rain;
(5) integral according to the rainfall probability density function in step (4) in the drainage system failure domain of step (3), calculates Rainfall characteristic parameter appears in the probability in failure domain, and then obtains the probability that waterlogging occurs for drainage system.
2. drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that reflection rainfall is uneven Property influence to drainage system catchment characteristic parameter be 5min~30min peak value raininess.
3. drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in step (2), by peak Preceding rainfall is also used as catchment characteristic parameter.
4. drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in step (4), establish Rainfall probability density function specifically: joint probability density function is established according to peak value raininess and average rainfall intensity.
5. drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in step (3), choose The rainfall responsive parameter that waterlogging occurs for drainage system is peak value raininess and average rainfall intensity.
6. drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in step 4, use The method of copula carries out building multi-parameter rainfall probability distribution function.
7. drainage system against rain waterlogging methods of risk assessment as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in step (5), obtain Drainage system occur waterlogging probability calculation formula are as follows:
In formula, Ci represents the probability that catchment occurs in waterlogging region, and Cj represents catchment in non-waterlogging region and sends out Raw probability, xi, yi, xj, yjDifferent characteristic parameter values is represented, i, j are serial number.
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Cited By (5)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110991046A (en) * 2019-12-04 2020-04-10 浙江大学 Drainage system waterlogging risk rapid early warning method based on response surface function
CN111738617A (en) * 2020-07-01 2020-10-02 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 Transformer substation risk assessment method and early warning system in heavy rainfall weather
CN112861325A (en) * 2021-01-20 2021-05-28 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 Design method and device of water discharge system, electronic equipment and storage medium
CN113221439A (en) * 2021-04-07 2021-08-06 浙江大学 BP neural network-based drainage system real-time calibration and dynamic prediction method
CN115372576A (en) * 2022-08-19 2022-11-22 河海大学 Method for evaluating influence of rainfall event on water quality of combined system drainage pump station

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CN104794539A (en) * 2015-04-20 2015-07-22 中国水利水电科学研究院 Method for building flood loss models

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Cited By (9)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110991046A (en) * 2019-12-04 2020-04-10 浙江大学 Drainage system waterlogging risk rapid early warning method based on response surface function
CN110991046B (en) * 2019-12-04 2021-07-09 浙江大学 Drainage system waterlogging risk rapid early warning method based on response surface function
CN111738617A (en) * 2020-07-01 2020-10-02 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 Transformer substation risk assessment method and early warning system in heavy rainfall weather
CN111738617B (en) * 2020-07-01 2023-12-26 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 Transformer substation risk assessment method and early warning system in heavy rainfall weather
CN112861325A (en) * 2021-01-20 2021-05-28 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 Design method and device of water discharge system, electronic equipment and storage medium
CN112861325B (en) * 2021-01-20 2023-02-21 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 Design method and device of water discharge system, electronic equipment and storage medium
CN113221439A (en) * 2021-04-07 2021-08-06 浙江大学 BP neural network-based drainage system real-time calibration and dynamic prediction method
CN113221439B (en) * 2021-04-07 2022-11-25 浙江大学 BP neural network-based drainage system real-time calibration and dynamic prediction method
CN115372576A (en) * 2022-08-19 2022-11-22 河海大学 Method for evaluating influence of rainfall event on water quality of combined system drainage pump station

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