CN109006278A - Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluating method - Google Patents
Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluating method Download PDFInfo
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- CN109006278A CN109006278A CN201810621628.1A CN201810621628A CN109006278A CN 109006278 A CN109006278 A CN 109006278A CN 201810621628 A CN201810621628 A CN 201810621628A CN 109006278 A CN109006278 A CN 109006278A
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- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 45
- 235000007164 Oryza sativa Nutrition 0.000 title claims abstract description 41
- 235000009566 rice Nutrition 0.000 title claims abstract description 41
- 230000006378 damage Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 38
- 208000027418 Wounds and injury Diseases 0.000 title claims abstract description 36
- 208000014674 injury Diseases 0.000 title claims abstract description 36
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 24
- 240000007594 Oryza sativa Species 0.000 title 1
- 241000209094 Oryza Species 0.000 claims abstract description 41
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 5
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000010606 normalization Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000013210 evaluation model Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 abstract description 7
- 241000196324 Embryophyta Species 0.000 abstract description 6
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 abstract description 5
- 240000008467 Oryza sativa Japonica Group Species 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000004215 lattice model Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000013439 planning Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000009331 sowing Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 7
- 235000013339 cereals Nutrition 0.000 description 2
- 238000013316 zoning Methods 0.000 description 2
- 206010008190 Cerebrovascular accident Diseases 0.000 description 1
- 208000006011 Stroke Diseases 0.000 description 1
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 235000013305 food Nutrition 0.000 description 1
- 238000003973 irrigation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000002262 irrigation Effects 0.000 description 1
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
Classifications
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- A—HUMAN NECESSITIES
- A01—AGRICULTURE; FORESTRY; ANIMAL HUSBANDRY; HUNTING; TRAPPING; FISHING
- A01G—HORTICULTURE; CULTIVATION OF VEGETABLES, FLOWERS, RICE, FRUIT, VINES, HOPS OR SEAWEED; FORESTRY; WATERING
- A01G22/00—Cultivation of specific crops or plants not otherwise provided for
- A01G22/20—Cereals
- A01G22/22—Rice
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- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Botany (AREA)
- Environmental Sciences (AREA)
- Breeding Of Plants And Reproduction By Means Of Culturing (AREA)
Abstract
The present invention relates to crops prevention techniques, specially a kind of Yunnan Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluating method, this method integrates Yunnan various regions Rice Heading florescence low temperature risk, exposed property, combats a natural disaster 3 risks and assumptions of performance, carries out risk analysis evaluation using anti-distance weighting interpolation technique, space lattice model, natural breakpoint staging and drawing function.This method has important directive significance to Rice Production, agriculture relevant departments administrative staff can instruct Rice Production for the planning of various regions Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk situation: the higher region of height above sea level, it is invaded vulnerable to cold air, low temperature is frequent, cold accumulated temperature is on the high side, heat levels are low, belong to rice Sheng Shicai and damage to plants caused by sudden drop in temperature high risk zone, it should plant some relatively cold-resistant japonica rice and appropriate limitation plantation height；Different type, the excellent seed rice rational deployment of maturity are selected, all types of seed rice are sowed in Suitable Sowing Period, it is ensured that rice each crucial puberty was in the local optimum climate period；It can also do sth. in advance rice growing transplanting time by appropriateness, avoid later period full heading time low temperature, achieve the purpose that go after profits and advoid disadvantages.Risk evaluation results have important directive significance to Rice Production.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to crops prevention technique, specially a kind of Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluating method.
Background technique
Rice occupies an important position in agricultural economy, is the staple food crop of Yunnan plantation, and cultivated area is
More than 1600 ten thousand mu, paddy total output accounts for 4~5 one-tenth of total output of grain.The volume increase of rice stable yields is grain security, economic prosperity, agriculture
The stable basic guarantee in village.Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury influences its growth and development and yield composition seriously, to establish Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury
Risk evaluating method can provide technical basis for effectively defence chilling injury.
Summary of the invention
Aiming at the problem that Yunnan there is no Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluating method, the present invention proposes a kind of Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury
Risk evaluating method.
Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluating method of the invention, it is characterised in that the specific steps that this method is implemented are as follows:
1) Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluation model is established:
Natural hybridized orbit is cooperatively formed by multiple factors, expression formula are as follows:
R=f (H, E, V)；
In formula: R indicates calamity source;H indicates risk;E indicates exposed property;V indicates anti-disaster ability.In order to eliminate
Dimension difference between index, is normalized each index:
In formula: XiFor risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability normalization index; xiFor risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability
Original value;WithFor risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability minimum value and maximum value.
2) risk index analysis
Using within 7~August Rice Heading florescence for three days on end the above highest temperature less than 24 DEG C as there is the judgement of chilling process
Condition counts the accumulated value of the cold accumulated temperature of the highest temperature of all chilling process:
In formula,For the cold accumulated temperature of the somewhere highest temperature, n indicates that the number of chilling process occurs in this area, and j indicates that jth time is low
Warm process, m indicate that number of days of the highest temperature less than 24 DEG C occurs in certain chilling process, and i indicates i-th in certain chilling process
It, tijIndicate i-th day in the jth time chilling process highest temperature.
Cold accumulated temperature is calculated, the regression equation of cold accumulated temperature and height above sea level is established:
。
H is height above sea level, equation R=0.91, by 0.001 significance test, using above-mentioned formula i.e. in combination with digital elevation
Model calculates the cold accumulated temperature of anywhere, obtains the fining distribution of the cold accumulated temperature of 7~August of the whole province.
3) exposed property index analysis
Exposed property index is indicated using the ratio that each county's Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area accounts for the whole province's Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area.Cultivated area accounts for the whole province
The ratio of cultivated area is bigger, and exposed property is higher, is more also easy to produce greater loss.After the normalization of the whole province's Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area ratio
Carry out fining interpolation.
4) anti-disaster ability index analysis
Anti-disaster ability index combats a natural disaster performance using GNP per capita expression locality, and to this area, national product is total per capita
After being worth normalized, fining interpolation is carried out.
5) chilling injury risk assessment
Comprehensive Yunnan various regions Rice Heading florescence low temperature risk, combats a natural disaster 3 risks and assumptions of performance at exposed property, using as follows
Formula carries out the chilling injury risk assessment of Rice Heading florescence:
。
The present invention constructs Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluating method, carries out Yunnan Rice Heading florescence chilling injury wind
Danger evaluation, agriculture relevant departments administrative staff can instruct Rice Production for the planning of various regions Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk situation: sea
Higher region is pulled out, is invaded vulnerable to cold air, low temperature is frequent, and cold accumulated temperature is on the high side, and heat levels are low, belongs to rice Sheng Shicai and damages to plants caused by sudden drop in temperature
High risk zone, it should plant some relatively cold-resistant japonica rice and appropriate limitation plantation height；Select different type, maturity it is excellent
Seed rice rational deployment, all types of seed rice are sowed in Suitable Sowing Period, it is ensured that rice each crucial puberty is in local optimum gas
It waits in the period；It can also do sth. in advance rice growing transplanting time by appropriateness, avoid later period full heading time low temperature, reach and go after profits and advoid disadvantages
Purpose.Risk evaluation results have important directive significance to Rice Production.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the cold accumulated temperature schematic diagram of the Yunnan various regions Rice Heading florescence chilling process highest temperature；
Fig. 2 is Yunnan various regions Rice Heading florescence chilling injury risk schematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is Heavy Rain in Yunnan in Summer chilling injury subregion schematic diagram；
Fig. 4 is that each county's Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area in Yunnan accounts for the whole province's ratio schematic diagram；
Fig. 5 is Yunnan various regions paddy rice low exposed property schematic diagram
Fig. 6 is each county's GNP per capita schematic diagram in Yunnan；
Fig. 7 is Yunnan various regions anti-disaster ability schematic diagram；
Fig. 8 is Yunnan Rice Heading florescence chilling injury risk zoning map.
Specific embodiment
Embodiment 1: the present invention uses the highest temperature data day by day in 1961~2010 county Nian125Ge of Yunnan rice region, Yunnan
The year of Statistics Bureau of Shanxi Province 2014 each county's Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area, 2014 year each county of Yunnan Statistics Bureau of Shanxi Province total output value data per capita, 1:
250000 administrative divisions, altitude data are finely calculated, natural breakpoint point by anti-distance weighting interpolation technique, space lattice model
Grade method and drawing function carry out risk analysis evaluation.
One, chilling injury risk evaluation model is established
Based on the basic principle that natural hybridized orbit is formed, Rice Heading is described using risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability and is bloomed
Phase chilling injury risk.
R=f (H, E, V)
In formula: R indicates calamity source;H indicates risk;E indicates exposed property;V indicates anti-disaster ability.In order to eliminate
Dimension difference between index, is normalized each index:
In formula:For risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability normalization index; xiFor risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability
Original value;WithFor various regions risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability minimum value and maximum value.
In conjunction with the reality in Yunnan, using each factor of following index expression Yunnan Rice Heading florescence chilling injury risk:
1 Yunnan Rice Heading florescence chilling injury risks and assumptions of table
| Risks and assumptions | Level of factor |
| Risk | The cold accumulated temperature of the highest temperature |
| Exposed property | Each county's Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area |
| Anti-disaster ability | The total output value per capita of each county |
Two, risk index analysis
Count Yunnan Rice Heading florescence in i.e. 7~August low temperature condition, use for three days on end the above highest temperature less than 24 DEG C
Come determine occur a chilling process, count the accumulated value of the cold accumulated temperature of the highest temperature of all chilling process:
In formula,For certain cold accumulated temperature of the highest temperature of standing, n indicates that the number of chilling process occurs in certain station in 1961~2010 years,
J indicates that jth time chilling process, m indicate that number of days of the highest temperature less than 24 DEG C occurs in certain chilling process, and i indicates low at certain
I-th day during temperature, tijIndicate i-th day in the jth time chilling process highest temperature.
It respectively stands cold accumulated temperature and height above sea level element establishes regression equation, as follows:
。
H is height above sea level, and equation R=0.91 passes through 0.001 significance test.It is i.e. combinable in Arcgis in conjunction with formula
Altitude data is calculated the cold accumulated temperature of Yunnan each lattice point within the border, as shown in Figure 1.
Yunnan Rice Heading florescence cold accumulated temperature is in probably zonal distribution from north orientation south, and the cold accumulated temperature of NW YUNNAN is relatively low ,-
10000 DEG C hereinafter, the big portion in the middle regions of the Yunnan Province is within the scope of -1000~-3000 DEG C, the cold accumulated temperature in southwest region is at 0~-1000 DEG C.Rice seed
The highest height above sea level boundary of plant is at 2700 meters or so, and inventor is extracted 2700 meters of regional scopes below of Yunnan height above sea level, to the model
Rice Heading florescence cold accumulated temperature in enclosing is divided into 4 grades, indicates that the difference of Rice Heading florescence chilling injury is dangerous
Degree, as shown in Figure 2.Yunnan paddy rice low risk is gradually increased from south to north, mountain of papers east, Ban Na, Pu'er south, Lincang
Part, Dehong south, Zhaotong the north etc. belong to low-risk area；Close to low-risk area be apoplexy danger zone, mountain of papers distribution area compared with
Greatly；The middle regions of the Yunnan Province and to the east of to the west of region based on secondary high risk area；Northern height above sea level upper zone is high risk area.
The cold accumulated temperature in south is higher than -300 DEG C of region, according to historical summary and actual conditions, is judged to seeing figure without area is damaged to plants caused by sudden drop in temperature
Shown in 3.
Three, exposed property index analysis
Exposed property is exposed in face of disaster, and is had and generated the possible degree of casualty loss.The cultivated area of present invention rice
Ratio indicates.The ratio that cultivated area accounts for the whole province's cultivated area is bigger, and exposed property is higher, is more also easy to produce greater loss.By water
Seed rice plants area ratio and normalizes laggard row interpolation, as shown in Figure 4.Using nature breakpoint method, rice exposed property is divided into 4
Grade indicates rice degree of exposure, as shown in figure 5, Yunnan is in the Baoshan, Dehong, Pu'er south, version Nahsi portion, mountain of papers part etc.
Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area is larger, and lower in the ground such as Zhaotong, Lijing, Yuxi, Chuxiong Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area ratio.
Four, anti-disaster ability is analyzed
It combats a natural disaster performance and refers to local capacity to combat natural adversities, general economic level is high, then planting technology, irrigation conditions, machine
Tool is horizontal, peasant household quality etc. is relatively high, therefore indicate using GNP per capita locality combats a natural disaster performance, such as
Shown in Fig. 6.To each laggard row interpolation of county's GNP per capita normalized in Yunnan Province, nature breakpoint method is equally used,
It will combat a natural disaster performance and be divided into 4 grades, and indicate each county's anti-disaster ability, as shown in Figure 7.National product is total per capita for Yunnan Central Yunnan
Value is higher, and more than 30000 yuan, and the ground such as Zhaotong east GNP per capita is lower, less than 10000 yuan.
Five, Yunnan various regions Rice Heading florescence chilling injury fire risk district
Comprehensive Yunnan various regions Rice Panicle florescence low temperature risk, combats a natural disaster 3 risks and assumptions of performance at exposed property, using following public affairs
Formula carries out zoning to Yunnan various regions Rice Heading florescence chilling injury risk, as a result such as Fig. 8.。
In formula: 0.5,0.3,0.2 is each Factor Weight, is determined using expert graded.
As can be seen from Figure 8, Yunnan Rice Heading florescence chilling injury high risk area be located at Northeast Yunnan, China the Zhaotong middle and south,
The Qujing central and north, the Lijing of NW YUNNAN, the Dali northwestward, the Chuxiong of the middle regions of the Yunnan Province is northern, Kunming is northern, the Baoshan, Pu'er of South-West Yunnan
The west and south, version Nahsi portion etc.；Northern territory is invaded, low temperature is frequent, cold product since position is by north or height above sea level is higher vulnerable to cold air
Temperature is on the high side, and heat levels are low, thus Rice Heading florescence chilling injury risk highest, and Southwestern Yunnan, China is mainly due to rice
Cultivated area is larger, GDP is horizontal lower, thus integrated risk also reaches highest level；The Kunming south of Central Yunnan, Chu Xiongnan
Portion, the big portion in Yuxi, mountain of papers western part, Red River the north and Zhaotong east etc. are Rice Heading florescence chilling injury risk low value area,
Trace it to its cause for it is economically developed, resist that low temperature risk ability is high, and Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area is small, the medium preference of heat condition, comprehensive wind
Danger is minimum.Secondary high risk area is predominantly located at Yunnan Province the north and west area close to high risk area, but is located closer to Yunnan Yunnan
In and areas to the south.
Yunnan Province Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluating method of the invention, should be not limited to be using above-mentioned statistical data
Enable method accurate evaluation Yunnan Rice Heading florescence chilling injury risk, should be transported according to the recent statistics data of acquisition
It calculates, guarantees the accuracy of the evaluation method to greatest extent.
Claims (1)
1. Yunnan Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluating method, it is characterised in that this method specific implementation step are as follows:
1) Analysis of Rice Chilling Injury risk evaluation model is established:
Based on the basic principle that natural hybridized orbit is formed, calamity source is cooperatively formed by multiple factors, and size can table
It reaches are as follows:
R=f (H, E, V)；
In formula: R indicates calamity source;H indicates risk;E indicates exposed property;V indicates anti-disaster ability；In order to eliminate
Dimension difference between index, is normalized each index:
In formula:For risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability normalization index;Xi is risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability
Original value;WithFor risk, exposed property, anti-disaster ability minimum value and maximum value；
2) risk index analysis
Count 7~August of Yunnan Rice Heading florescence in low temperature condition, with the above highest temperature for three days on end less than 24 DEG C come
Determine a chilling process occur, count the accumulated value of the cold accumulated temperature of the highest temperature of all chilling process:
In formula,For the cold accumulated temperature of the somewhere highest temperature, n indicates that the number of chilling process occurs in this area, and j indicates jth time low temperature
Process, m indicate that number of days of the highest temperature less than 24 DEG C occurs in certain chilling process, and i indicates i-th in certain chilling process
It,Indicate i-th day in the jth time chilling process highest temperature；It is established and is returned with the elements such as cold accumulated temperature and height above sea level, longitude, latitude
Equation, as follows:
-1.149
H is height above sea level, and equation R=0.91, by 0.001 significance test, using above-mentioned formula, in conjunction with altitude data, calculating should
The cold accumulated temperature in area；
3) exposed property index analysis
Exposed property is exposed in face of disaster, and is had and generated the possible degree of casualty loss, is accounted for using each county's Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area
The ratio of the whole province's Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area indicates, i.e., cultivated area account for the whole province's cultivated area ratio it is bigger, exposed property is higher, more
It is also easy to produce greater loss, after the normalization of each county's Monitoring of Paddy Rice Plant Area ratio, carries out fining interpolation；
4) anti-disaster ability index analysis
It combats a natural disaster performance and refers to local capacity to combat natural adversities, local combating a natural disaster property is indicated using GNP per capita
Can, after each county's GNP per capita normalized, carry out interpolation；
5) chilling injury risk assessment
Comprehensive Yunnan various regions Rice Heading florescence low temperature risk, combats a natural disaster 3 risks and assumptions of performance at exposed property, using as follows
Formula evaluates Yunnan various regions Rice Heading florescence chilling injury risk:
。
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN113575240A (en) * | 2021-09-02 | 2021-11-02 | 西北农林科技大学 | Plant low-temperature injury evaluation early warning system based on accumulated air temperature shortage |
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2018
- 2018-06-15 CN CN201810621628.1A patent/CN109006278A/en active Pending
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| CN102867217A (en) * | 2012-08-28 | 2013-01-09 | 南京信息工程大学 | Projection pursuit-based risk evaluation method for meteorological disasters of facility agriculture |
| CN103955606A (en) * | 2014-04-23 | 2014-07-30 | 北京大学 | Remote sensing technology-based grassland locust plague progressive prediction method |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN113575240A (en) * | 2021-09-02 | 2021-11-02 | 西北农林科技大学 | Plant low-temperature injury evaluation early warning system based on accumulated air temperature shortage |
| CN113575240B (en) * | 2021-09-02 | 2022-04-19 | 西北农林科技大学 | Plant low-temperature injury evaluation early warning system based on accumulated air temperature shortage |
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Application publication date: 20181218 |