CN108845202B - Transformer state overhauling method considering opportunistic maintenance among multiple fault modes - Google Patents
Transformer state overhauling method considering opportunistic maintenance among multiple fault modes Download PDFInfo
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- CN108845202B CN108845202B CN201810623931.5A CN201810623931A CN108845202B CN 108845202 B CN108845202 B CN 108845202B CN 201810623931 A CN201810623931 A CN 201810623931A CN 108845202 B CN108845202 B CN 108845202B
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- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 69
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 23
- 230000007704 transition Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 34
- 238000012546 transfer Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 24
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 17
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 8
- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 claims description 15
- 230000008439 repair process Effects 0.000 claims description 12
- 230000015556 catabolic process Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 238000006731 degradation reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000009421 internal insulation Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000006866 deterioration Effects 0.000 abstract description 4
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 abstract description 3
- 238000009413 insulation Methods 0.000 description 3
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000032683 aging Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007547 defect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000006872 improvement Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000011810 insulating material Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000003449 preventive effect Effects 0.000 description 1
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01R—MEASURING ELECTRIC VARIABLES; MEASURING MAGNETIC VARIABLES
- G01R31/00—Arrangements for testing electric properties; Arrangements for locating electric faults; Arrangements for electrical testing characterised by what is being tested not provided for elsewhere
Abstract
The invention discloses a transformer state maintenance method considering opportunistic maintenance among multiple fault modes, which comprises the following steps of: constructing a transformer equipment multi-state transition block diagram considering opportunistic maintenance; according to historical data of operation of transformers with the same specification, counting average transfer time among all states of the transformers; assuming that the transfer time among the states of the transformer obeys exponential distribution, and solving the transfer rate among the states of the transformer according to the average transfer time among the states of the transformer; writing a state transfer steady state balance equation according to the transfer rate between the states of the transformer, and solving the average availability of transformer equipment; and optimizing the offline monitoring frequency and the opportunity maintenance strategy to obtain the average availability of the highest equipment, and taking the average availability as the best equipment state maintenance strategy. The invention can simultaneously process the problems (faults and deterioration) caused by a plurality of fault modes through one-time maintenance, more efficiently utilize human resources and reduce the maintenance cost.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power automation, in particular to a transformer state maintenance method considering opportunistic maintenance among multiple fault modes.
Background
Power transformers are constructed from a number of components, such as internal body insulation (insulation paper, insulation oil, etc.), external accessories, etc. The different components may fail causing the transformer to come out of service, such as gradual degradation failure of the internal insulation and random failure of external accessories due to environmental weather. Different fault processes which can enable the transformer to be out of operation are called different fault modes of the transformer, and the transformer has multiple fault modes.
Under the condition of condition maintenance, the specific condition of equipment can be known through off-line monitoring, and for the transformer, the aging degree of the internal insulating material can be reflected by the volume fraction of gas in oil, and can be divided into four conditions of good condition, attention, serious condition and fault condition, and any one condition can be recovered to the good condition through maintenance. The external accessory failure of the transformer can be regarded as random failure because of being related to the external environment, and the equipment is required to be repaired to be put into operation again after the failure occurs. For complex equipment with multiple fault modes such as a transformer, if each time of overhaul or after-fault repair is only performed on one fault mode, efficiency is inevitably lacked, and the method is embodied in the following two points:
1. from the individual perspective of transformer, no matter what kind of failure mode's of going on to overhaul, all need move certain manpower, if once overhaul can handle the problem (trouble, degradation) that multiple failure mode brought simultaneously, then can more efficient utilization manpower resources, reduce the cost of overhaul.
2. From the view of system operation, no matter which fault mode can make the transformer quit operation for a period of time, if the problems (faults and deterioration) brought by a plurality of fault modes can be solved in one shutdown, the total system shutdown time can be reduced, and the negative influence on the system operation caused by maintenance is reduced.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a transformer state maintenance method considering opportunistic maintenance among multiple fault modes.
A transformer condition maintenance method considering opportunistic maintenance among multiple failure modes comprises the following steps:
constructing a transformer equipment multi-state transition block diagram considering opportunistic maintenance;
according to historical data of operation of transformers with the same specification, counting average transfer time among all states of the transformers;
assuming that the transfer time among the states of the transformer obeys exponential distribution, and solving the transfer rate among the states of the transformer according to the average transfer time among the states of the transformer;
writing a state transfer steady state balance equation according to the transfer rate between the states of the transformer, and solving the average availability of transformer equipment;
and optimizing the offline monitoring frequency and the opportunity maintenance strategy to obtain the average availability of the highest equipment, and taking the average availability as the best equipment state maintenance strategy.
In a further preferred technical scheme, when the multi-state transition block diagram of the transformer equipment considering the opportunistic maintenance is constructed, the transformer is divided into a plurality of discrete states according to the performance change of the transformer equipment, and the multi-state transition block diagram considering the maintenance strategy is constructed on the basis of the discrete states.
In a further preferred technical solution, the discrete state includes an internal operation state of the transformer, an off-line detection state of the transformer, and a random fault of an external accessory of the transformer.
In a further preferred technical solution, the discrete state specifically is: states 0,1,2 and 3 respectively represent four states of good, attention, serious and fault of the internal insulation degradation of the transformer; states 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 13, 14 represent the transformer in an offline detection state; states 9, 10, 11 represent random failures of the external accessories of the transformer; the block diagram represents an opportunistic repair strategy selected after detection.
In a further preferred technical scheme, when the average transition time between the states of the transformer is counted, monitoring history data of the transformer equipment needs to be retrieved, and the average transition time T from the state i to the state j is countedij。
In a further preferred technical scheme, assuming that the transition time among the states obeys exponential distribution, the transition rate λ from the state i to the state j is obtained according to the average transition time among the statesij：
According to a further preferable technical scheme, the average availability of the equipment is obtained through a column writing state transition steady state equilibrium equation, which specifically comprises the following steps:
let P ═ P0, P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6, P7, P8, P9, P10, P11, P12, P13, P14]TWhere pi represents the steady-state probability of state i; from the obtained state transition rate lambdaijConstructing a matrix U, an element a in the matrixij＝λijThe column-written algebraic equation solves the steady-state probability as follows:
the transformer states 0,1 and 2 represent that the transformer is in an operating state, and the sum of the corresponding probabilities is the steady-state availability A of the transformer:
A＝p0+p1+p2。
according to a further preferable technical scheme, the optimal transformer steady-state availability A is obtained by optimizing the detection frequency in the multi-state transition block diagram of the transformer equipment and the opportunity maintenance strategy in the block by an exhaustion method.
According to a further preferable technical scheme, a detection frequency and an opportunity maintenance strategy are set to obtain a steady-state availability, and an optimal state maintenance strategy of the transformer considering opportunity maintenance is obtained, wherein the opportunity maintenance strategy comprises major maintenance, minor maintenance and non-maintenance.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention can simultaneously process the problems (faults and deterioration) caused by a plurality of fault modes through one-time maintenance, more efficiently utilize human resources and reduce the maintenance cost. The present invention relates to two failure modes: random failure of external accessories and internal degradation failure.
The invention solves the problems (faults and deterioration) caused by a plurality of fault modes in one shutdown, can reduce the total shutdown time of the system and reduce the negative influence on the system operation caused by maintenance.
The invention carries out preventive maintenance on internal degradation faults by utilizing the opportunity that the external accessory faults cause the shutdown of the transformer.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the application and, together with the description, serve to explain the application and are not intended to limit the application.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a state transition block diagram of the device of the present invention that accounts for opportunistic repairs.
Detailed Description
It should be noted that the following detailed description is exemplary and is intended to provide further explanation of the disclosure. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of example embodiments according to the present application. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, and it should be understood that when the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" are used in this specification, they specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, devices, components, and/or combinations thereof, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
As introduced by the background art, the state maintenance strategy for performing maintenance only for one fault mode in the prior art is low in efficiency, and in order to improve the maintenance efficiency and reduce the maintenance cost of equipment and a system, the transformer state maintenance strategy considering the opportunity maintenance among multiple fault modes is provided.
In an exemplary embodiment of the present application, as shown in fig. 1, the present invention proposes a transformer condition maintenance strategy that accounts for opportunistic repairs between multiple failure modes:
step one, constructing a transformer equipment multi-state transition block diagram considering opportunistic maintenance;
step two, according to historical data of the operation of the transformers with the same specification, the average transfer time among all states of the transformers is counted;
step three, assuming that the transfer time among the states of the transformer obeys exponential distribution, and solving the transfer rate among the states of the transformer according to the average transfer time among the states of the transformer;
writing a state transfer steady state balance equation according to the transfer rate among the states of the transformer, and solving the average availability of transformer equipment;
and fifthly, optimizing the offline monitoring frequency and the opportunity maintenance strategy to obtain the average availability of the highest equipment, and using the average availability as the best equipment state maintenance strategy.
In the first step, when the multi-state transition block diagram of the transformer equipment considering maintenance opportunity is constructed, the transformer is divided into a plurality of discrete states according to the performance change of the transformer equipment, and the multi-state transition block diagram considering the maintenance strategy is constructed on the basis of the discrete states, as shown in fig. 2. States 0,1,2 and 3 respectively represent four states of good, attention, serious and fault of the internal insulation degradation of the transformer; states 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 13, 14 represent the transformer in an offline detection state; states 9, 10, 11 represent random failures of the external accessories of the transformer; the block diagram represents the opportunistic maintenance strategy selected after the detection and not the actual state, e.g. NM13 indicates that no opportunistic maintenance is performed after state 13 (detection state) detects that the equipment is in state 2; m14 and MM14 respectively indicate that minor repair and major repair are performed after the device is detected to be in the state 3.
The second step is that the average transition time between the states is counted, the monitoring historical data of the equipment needs to be called, and the average transition time T from the state i to the state j is countedij。
The third step is that the transition time among the states is assumed to obey exponential distribution, and the transition rate lambda from the state i to the state j is obtained according to the average transition time among the statesij。
The method of the fourth step is to obtain the average availability of the equipment through the column writing state transition steady state equilibrium equation, which is specifically as follows:
1. let P ═ P0, P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6, P7, P8, P9, P10, P11, P12, P13, P14]TWhere pi represents the steady state probability of state i. The state transition rate λ obtained in step threeijConstructing a matrix U, an element a in the matrixij＝λij. The column write algebraic equation solves the steady state probability as follows:
2. the steady-state availability A of the transformer is as follows: 0,1,2 represents the operating state of the transformer
A＝p0+p1+p2
And the fifth step is that the detection frequency gamma in the figure 2 and the opportunity maintenance strategy in the square frame are optimized by an exhaustion method to obtain the optimal steady-state availability A of the transformer, one steady-state availability can be obtained by giving one detection frequency and opportunity maintenance strategy (major repair, minor repair and non-repair), and the algorithm is exhaustive to obtain the optimal state maintenance strategy of the transformer considering the opportunity maintenance.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present application and is not intended to limit the present application, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present application shall be included in the protection scope of the present application.
Claims (9)
1. A transformer state maintenance method considering opportunistic maintenance among multiple fault modes is characterized by comprising the following steps:
constructing a transformer equipment multi-state transition block diagram considering opportunistic maintenance;
according to historical data of operation of transformers with the same specification, counting average transfer time among all states of the transformers;
assuming that the transfer time among the states of the transformer obeys exponential distribution, and solving the transfer rate among the states of the transformer according to the average transfer time among the states of the transformer;
writing a state transfer steady state balance equation according to the transfer rate between the states of the transformer, and solving the average availability of transformer equipment;
and optimizing the offline monitoring frequency and the opportunity maintenance strategy to obtain the average availability of the highest equipment, and taking the average availability as the best equipment state maintenance strategy.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein when the multi-state transition block diagram of the transformer equipment for maintenance and repair is constructed, the transformer equipment is divided into a plurality of discrete states according to the performance change of the transformer equipment, and the multi-state transition block diagram for maintenance and repair strategy is constructed based on the discrete states.
3. The method as claimed in claim 2, wherein the discrete states include an internal operating state of the transformer, an off-line detection state of the transformer, and a random fault of an external accessory of the transformer.
4. The transformer condition maintenance method considering opportunistic maintenance among multiple failure modes as claimed in claim 3, wherein the discrete condition is specifically: states 0,1,2 and 3 respectively represent four states of good, attention, serious and fault of the internal insulation degradation of the transformer; states 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12, 13, 14 represent the transformer in an offline detection state; states 9, 10, 11 represent random failures of the external accessories of the transformer; the block diagram represents an opportunistic repair strategy selected after detection.
5. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the average transition time between states of the transformer is counted by retrieving historical monitoring data of the transformer equipment and counting the average transition time T from state i to state jij。
6. The method as claimed in claim 5, wherein the transition rate λ from state i to state j is determined according to the average transition time between states, assuming that the transition time between states follows an exponential distributionij：
7. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the average availability of the equipment is obtained by following a steady state balance equation of state transition, and the method comprises the following steps:
let P ═ P0, P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6, P7, P8, P9, P10, P11, P12, P13, P14]TWhere pi represents the steady-state probability of state i; from the obtained state transition rate lambdaijConstructing a matrix U, an element a in the matrixij＝λijThe column-written algebraic equation solves the steady-state probability as follows:
the transformer states 0,1 and 2 represent that the transformer is in an operating state, and the sum of the corresponding probabilities is the steady-state availability A of the transformer:
A＝p0+p1+p2。
8. the method as claimed in claim 7, wherein the optimal steady-state availability A of the transformer is obtained by optimizing the detection frequency in the multi-state transition block diagram and the opportunistic maintenance strategy in the block diagram of the transformer equipment by exhaustion.
9. The method as claimed in claim 8, wherein the step of setting a detection frequency and the maintenance strategy to obtain a steady state availability and obtaining the optimal maintenance strategy for the transformer in consideration of the maintenance opportunity comprises major maintenance, minor maintenance and non-maintenance.
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| US7363463B2 (en) * | 2005-05-13 | 2008-04-22 | Microsoft Corporation | Method and system for caching address translations from multiple address spaces in virtual machines |
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| CN103324992A (en) * | 2013-07-11 | 2013-09-25 | 国家电网公司 | Transformer risk prediction method based on markov and entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation |
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