CN108596384A - The method and apparatus of pre- electricity payment - Google Patents
The method and apparatus of pre- electricity payment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of method and apparatus of pre- electricity payment, are related to the electricity charge and pay technical field, and this method is applied to server, including：Obtain the electricity historical data of user；The next month electricity of user is predicted according to ARMA model；The first pre- electricity payment is calculated according to next month electricity and current electricity prices；First pre- electricity payment is multiplied by risk factor to calculate the second pre- electricity payment；Risk factor is more than 1；First pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment are notified into user, so that user's pre- electricity payment in full amount.The present invention can predict the next month electricity of user by the electricity historical data and ARMA model of user, allow user's full-amount electricity payment in advance, avoid power blackout situation caused by account balance deficiency.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the electricity charge to pay technical field, more particularly, to a kind of method and apparatus of pre- electricity payment.
Background technology
Due to the aging of power transmission network, national grid has started the intelligent grid transformation of large area, as holding for intelligent grid
Row product intelligent electric meter has also obtained large-scale installation and application, and this advance payment expense electric meter system has following advantage：
In terms of disbursement and sattlement and registration management expense/cancellation, cost is lower；With reliable, efficient and autonomous management
The advantages that, and service can be interrupted automatically in the case that expense is insufficient；System communication is only limitted between card and card reader, is not required to
Data in card reader are transmitted to grid company again；Cost is saved for meter reading and repair, smart card and intelligent calendar life are more
It is long, eliminate maintenance cost；It first pays the fees simultaneously, it is rear to use, directly eliminate the risk that do not pay the bill.User can be clear by the system
The usage amount of oneself is understood to Chu, to reduce dosage and be that budget is made in water power consumption in advance.
However existing pre- pay charge way can carry out power down process, user is caused to use when Sorry, your ticket has not enough value for user account
It is inconvenient.
Invention content
In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of method and apparatus of pre- electricity payment, next month can be predicted
The electricity charge to remind user to pay in advance in full amount in time.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of method of pre- electricity payment, it is applied to server, including：It obtains
Take the electricity historical data at family；The next month electricity of user is predicted according to ARMA model；According to next month electricity and
Current electricity prices calculate the first pre- electricity payment；First pre- electricity payment is multiplied by risk factor to calculate the second pre- electricity payment；
Risk factor is more than 1；First pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment are notified into user, so that user pays in full amount electricity in advance
Take.
With reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the first possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein root
Predict that the next month electricity of user includes according to ARMA model：The time sequence of electricity is obtained according to electricity historical data
Row；Whether the time series for verifying electricity is stationary sequence, if not, carrying out tranquilization；Sequence after tranquilization is asked from phase
Relationship number and partial correlation coefficient；It is pre- that model is obtained according to auto-correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient progress Model Identification and parameter Estimation
Survey expression formula；The next month electricity of user is predicted according to model prediction expression formula.
With reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides second of possible embodiment of first aspect, further include：
Obtain the electricity charge remaining sum of user；Calculate separately the difference of the first pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment and electricity charge remaining sum；It will
Difference notifies user.
With reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the third possible embodiment of first aspect, further include：
Calculate the difference of next month electricity and the practical electricity of user's next month；Multiple months differences are averaged；It is corrected according to mean value and is returned certainly
Return the prediction result of moving average model.
With reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the 4th kind of possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein wind
Any number of the dangerous coefficient between 1.1-1.3.
Second aspect, the embodiment of the present invention also provide a kind of device of pre- electricity payment, are applied to server, including：Electricity
Measure historical data acquisition module, the electricity historical data for obtaining user；Next month power quantity predicting module, for according to autoregression
Moving average model(MA model) predicts the next month electricity of user；First pre- electricity payment computing module, for according to next month electricity and currently
Electricity price calculates the first pre- electricity payment；Second pre- electricity payment computing module, for by pre- electricity payment be multiplied by risk factor with
Calculate the second pre- electricity payment；Risk factor is more than 1；Notification module, for the first pre- electricity payment and second to be paid electricity in advance
Expense notifies user, so that user's pre- electricity payment in full amount.
In conjunction with second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the first possible embodiments of second aspect, wherein under
Month power quantity predicting module is additionally operable to：The time series of electricity is obtained according to electricity historical data；Verifying the time series of electricity is
No is stationary sequence, if not, carrying out tranquilization；Auto-correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient are asked to the sequence after tranquilization；According to
Auto-correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient carry out Model Identification and parameter Estimation obtains model prediction expression formula；According to model prediction table
The next month electricity of user is predicted up to formula.
In conjunction with second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides second of possible embodiments of second aspect, further include：
Electricity charge remaining sum acquisition module, the electricity charge remaining sum for obtaining user；Difference calculating module pays electricity in advance for calculating separately first
Take and the difference of the second pre- electricity payment and electricity charge remaining sum；Difference notification module, for difference to be notified user.
In conjunction with second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the third possible embodiments of second aspect, further include：
Electricity difference calculating module, the difference for calculating next month electricity and the practical electricity of user's next month；Mean value computation module, is used for
Multiple months differences are averaged；Correcting module, the prediction result for correcting autoregressive moving-average model according to mean value.
In conjunction with second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the 4th kind of possible embodiments of second aspect, wherein wind
Any number of the dangerous coefficient between 1.1-1.3.
The method and apparatus of pre- electricity payment provided in an embodiment of the present invention, can by the electricity historical data of user and
ARMA model predicts the next month electricity of user, and the electricity that next month need to prestore can be calculated according to the next month electricity
Take, can show that user needs prepaid electricity charge range in conjunction with suitable risk factor, user is allow to pay electricity in full amount in advance
Take, avoids power blackout situation caused by account balance deficiency.
Other features and advantages of the present invention will illustrate in the following description, also, partly become from specification
It obtains it is clear that understand through the implementation of the invention.The purpose of the present invention and other advantages are in specification, claims
And specifically noted structure is realized and is obtained in attached drawing.
To enable the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention to be clearer and more comprehensible, preferred embodiment cited below particularly, and coordinate
Appended attached drawing, is described in detail below.
Description of the drawings
It, below will be to specific in order to illustrate more clearly of the specific embodiment of the invention or technical solution in the prior art
Embodiment or attached drawing needed to be used in the description of the prior art are briefly described, it should be apparent that, in being described below
Attached drawing is some embodiments of the present invention, for those skilled in the art, without creative efforts,
Other drawings may also be obtained based on these drawings.
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of the method for pre- electricity payment provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the flow of the next month electricity provided in an embodiment of the present invention that user is predicted according to ARMA model
Schematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is the structural schematic diagram of the device of pre- electricity payment provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 4 is another structural schematic diagram of the device of pre- electricity payment provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
In order to make the object, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiment of the invention clearer, below in conjunction with attached drawing to the present invention
Technical solution be clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiments are some of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than
Whole embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those skilled in the art institute without making creative work
The every other embodiment obtained, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
User generally monthly calculates the number for the electricity charge for needing to pay in advance, and current pre- pay charge way does not consider that user's is upper
Demand is stated, is based on this, a kind of method and apparatus of pre- electricity payment provided in an embodiment of the present invention can predict the electricity charge of next month
To remind user to pay in advance in full amount in time.
Unless otherwise defined, all of technologies and scientific terms used here by the article and belong to the technical field of the present invention
The normally understood meaning of technical staff is identical.Herein in the art used in the description of the method and apparatus of pre- electricity payment
Language, which is only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments, is not intended to limit the present invention.Term " and or " used herein packet
Include any and all combinations of one or more relevant Listed Items.
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, it elaborates to the specific implementation mode of the present invention.
Embodiment one
The embodiment of the present invention one provides a kind of method of pre- electricity payment, is applied to server, shown in Figure 1 is pre-
The flow diagram of the method for electricity payment, includes the following steps：
Step S11 obtains the electricity historical data of user.
The electricity historical data of above-mentioned user includes the electricity of each calendar month, in order to ensure subsequent prediction user's next month electricity
The accuracy of amount, historical data should include at least recently the electricity of every calendar month of the user in two years.
Step S12 predicts the next month electricity of user according to ARMA model.
It is above-mentioned according to ARMA model (Auto-regressive Moving Average Model, ARMA)
Predicting the basic thought of the next month electricity of user is：Will predict object over time and formed data sequence be considered as one with
Machine sequence, with certain mathematical model come this sequence of approximate description, when model can be from time series after identified
Past value and value predicts future value now.The monthly electricity of user generally comprises seasonal fluctuation and continues to increase, reduces
Deng variation, it is suitble to be simulated using above-mentioned model.
Step S13 calculates the first pre- electricity payment according to next month electricity and current electricity prices.
After obtaining the next month electricity of model prediction, the electricity charge are calculated according to current electricity prices, it should be noted that calculate the electricity charge
When to consider the step price policies of current electricity prices, accurately to be needed the electricity charge value paid in advance.
First pre- electricity payment is multiplied by risk factor to calculate the second pre- electricity payment by step S14.
In view of user's next month may not be and predicted value strict conformance using electricity, it is likely that occur more than predicted value
Situation, if being only likely to the predicted value prompt pre- electricity payment of user or will appear the case where Sorry, your ticket has not enough value powers off, therefore
Provided with the risk factor more than 1, the first pre- electricity payment that prediction obtains is multiplied by the risk factor obtains second and pay in advance
The electricity charge.According to the actual conditions of user, and comprehensive weigh powers off risk and pre-paying occupancy money position, and above-mentioned risk factor can
To take any number between 1.1-1.3.
First pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment are notified user, so that user pays in full amount electricity in advance by step S15
Take.
After obtaining the first pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment, pass through short message, phone or other communication modes
User is notified, what user obtained at this time is the range for the electricity charge that need to be paid in advance next month, and user can pay foot as needed
The volume electricity charge ensure there are enough remaining sums within next month.
The flow diagram of the next month electricity that user is predicted according to ARMA model shown in Figure 2, on
It states in step S12 and predicts that the next month electricity of user specifically includes following steps according to ARMA model：
Step S21 obtains the time series of electricity according to electricity historical data.
Oscillogram is drawn according to the electricity data of each calendar month, wherein abscissa is the time, and unit is the moon, and ordinate is
Electricity, unit are kilowatt hours.By observe user electricity data oscillogram, electricity time series (set this sequence data as
Yt) belong to Random time sequence, they are changed over time but interrelated.
Step S22, whether the time series for verifying electricity is stationary sequence, if not, carrying out tranquilization.
Since ARMA model can only handle the prediction of stationary time series, it is necessary first to be carried out to Yt steady
Property verification.Especially by the auto-correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient for calculating Yt, determines the range of probability value, determined by the range
Whether Yt is stationary sequence, is greater than 0.05, then tentatively assert that Yt is not stationary sequence；ADF inspections are carried out to Yt
(Augmented Dickey-Fuller test), judges whether ADF values are less than the critical value of different insolation levels, if not small
It is stationary sequence in then assert Yt not.First then the every 3 one group of carry out rolling average processing of Yt sequences are taken in the present embodiment
Its first-order difference obtains time series Dt, i.e., steady series.
Step S23 calculates the auto-correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient of steady series Dt.
Step S24 carries out Model Identification and parameter Estimation according to the auto-correlation coefficient of steady series Dt and partial correlation coefficient
Obtain model prediction expression formula.
In the present embodiment, according to above-mentioned auto-correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient all without apparent truncation, thus it is specific
ARIMA (P, 1, Q) model is selected.In view of the mean value non-zero of Dt, proposed vertical ARIMA (3,1,3) model.It is soft using Eviews
Part packet calculates output model parameter, and rejects the parameter without conspicuousness, obtains model prediction expression formula.
Step S25 predicts the next month electricity of user according to above-mentioned model prediction expression formula.
According to above-mentioned model prediction expression formula, the next month electricity of user is predicted by Eviews software packages.
It is understood that pre- pay of user usually has part remaining sum in account, therefore user for convenience,
While notifying the first pre- electricity payment of user and the second pre- electricity payment, it can also include the following steps：
Obtain the electricity charge remaining sum of user；Calculate separately the first pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment and electricity charge remaining sum
Difference；Difference is notified into user.In the case that user can intuitively be informed in electricity and the electricity charge of current predictive, it is also necessary to pre-
How many electricity charge deposited.It is also possible to which above-mentioned electricity charge remaining sum is sent to user, user is set to understand of that month remaining sum situation, and to it
The electricity charge of next month have intuitive estimation, more acurrate can instruct the pre- electricity payment of user.
In view of prediction model and actual conditions can not be completely the same, need to carry out a degree of repair to prediction model
Just, therefore at the end of next month the practical electricity of next month is obtained, and calculates the difference of next month electricity and the practical electricity of user's next month
Value.Multiple months differences are averaged after the above-mentioned difference for obtaining multiple months, it is flat to correct autoregression sliding further according to the mean value
The prediction result of equal model.It can generally take above-mentioned multiple moons 3-6 months.
The method of pre- electricity payment provided in this embodiment can be moved by the electricity historical data of user and autoregression
Averaging model predicts the next month electricity of user, the electricity charge that next month need to prestore can be calculated according to the next month electricity, in conjunction with suitable
Risk factor can show that user needs prepaid electricity charge range, can also be calculated according to the remaining sum of user and need to actually be paid in advance
Electricity charge value avoid power blackout situation caused by account balance deficiency so as to effectively instruct the pre- electricity payment of user.
Embodiment two
Second embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of devices of pre- electricity payment, are applied to server, shown in Figure 3 is pre-
The structural schematic diagram of the device of electricity payment, the device include：Electricity historical data acquisition module 301, next month power quantity predicting mould
Block 302, the first pre- electricity payment computing module 303, the second pre- electricity payment computing module 304 and notification module 305, wherein
The function of each module is as follows：
Electricity historical data acquisition module 301, the electricity historical data for obtaining user；
Next month power quantity predicting module 302, the next month electricity for predicting user according to ARMA model；
First pre- electricity payment computing module 303 pays electricity in advance for calculating first according to next month electricity and current electricity prices
Take；
Second pre- electricity payment computing module 304, for pre- electricity payment to be multiplied by risk factor to calculate the second advance payment
Receive the electricity charge
Notification module 305, for the first pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment to be notified user, so that user is full-amount
Pre- electricity payment.
Wherein, next month power quantity predicting module 302 is additionally operable to：The time series of electricity is obtained according to electricity historical data；It tests
Whether the time series for demonstrate,proving electricity is stationary sequence, if not, carrying out tranquilization；Auto-correlation coefficient is asked to the sequence after tranquilization
And partial correlation coefficient；Model Identification is carried out according to auto-correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient and parameter Estimation obtains model prediction expression
Formula；The next month electricity of user is predicted according to model prediction expression formula.
As shown in figure 4, above-mentioned apparatus further includes：Electricity charge remaining sum acquisition module 401, the electricity charge remaining sum for obtaining user；
Difference calculating module 402, the difference for calculating separately the first pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment and electricity charge remaining sum；Difference
It is worth notification module, for difference to be notified user.
Above-mentioned apparatus further includes：Electricity difference calculating module, the practical electricity for calculating next month electricity and user's next month
Difference；Mean value computation module, for multiple months differences to be averaged；Correcting module, for correcting autoregression according to mean value
The prediction result of moving average model.
The device of pre- electricity payment provided in this embodiment can be moved by the electricity historical data of user and autoregression
Averaging model predicts the next month electricity of user, the electricity charge that next month need to prestore can be calculated according to the next month electricity, in conjunction with suitable
Risk factor can show that user needs prepaid electricity charge range, can also be calculated according to the remaining sum of user and need to actually be paid in advance
Electricity charge value avoid power blackout situation caused by account balance deficiency so as to effectively instruct the pre- electricity payment of user.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience and simplicity of description, the device of foregoing description
Specific work process, can refer to corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiment, details are not described herein.
In addition, in the description of the embodiment of the present invention unless specifically defined or limited otherwise, term " installation ", " phase
Even ", " connection " shall be understood in a broad sense, for example, it may be being fixedly connected, may be a detachable connection, or be integrally connected；It can
Can also be electrical connection to be mechanical connection；It can be directly connected, can also indirectly connected through an intermediary, Ke Yishi
Connection inside two elements.To those skilled in the art, it can understand above-mentioned term in the present invention with concrete condition
Concrete meaning.
In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that term "center", "upper", "lower", "left", "right", "vertical",
The orientation or positional relationship of the instructions such as "horizontal", "inner", "outside" be based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the drawings, merely to
Convenient for the description present invention and simplify description, do not indicate or imply the indicated device or element must have a particular orientation,
With specific azimuth configuration and operation, therefore it is not considered as limiting the invention.In addition, term " first ", " second ",
" third " is used for description purposes only, and is not understood to indicate or imply relative importance.
Finally it should be noted that：Above example, only specific implementation mode of the invention, to illustrate the skill of the present invention
Art scheme, rather than its limitations, scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto, although with reference to the foregoing embodiments to the present invention into
Go detailed description, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that：Any one skilled in the art takes off in the present invention
In the technical scope of dew, it can still modify to the technical solution recorded in previous embodiment or can readily occur in change
Change or equivalent replacement of some of the technical features；And these modifications, variation or replacement, do not make relevant art
Scheme essence be detached from technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention spirit and scope, should all cover protection scope of the present invention it
It is interior.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be subject to the protection scope in claims.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of method of pre- electricity payment, which is characterized in that the method is applied to server, including：
Obtain the electricity historical data of user；
The next month electricity of the user is predicted according to ARMA model；
The first pre- electricity payment is calculated according to the next month electricity and current electricity prices；
Described first pre- electricity payment is multiplied by risk factor to calculate the second pre- electricity payment；The risk factor is more than 1；
Described first pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment are notified into the user, so that the full-amount advance payment of the user
Receive the electricity charge.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, described predict the use according to ARMA model
The next month electricity at family includes：
The time series of electricity is obtained according to the electricity historical data；
Whether the time series for verifying the electricity is stationary sequence, if not, carrying out tranquilization；
Auto-correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient are asked to the sequence after the tranquilization；
Model Identification is carried out according to the auto-correlation coefficient and the partial correlation coefficient and parameter Estimation obtains model prediction expression
Formula；
The next month electricity of the user is predicted according to the model prediction expression formula.
3. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the method further includes：
Obtain the electricity charge remaining sum of the user；
Calculate separately the difference of the described first pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment and the electricity charge remaining sum；
The difference is notified into the user.
4. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the method further includes：
Calculate the difference of the next month electricity and the practical electricity of user's next month；
The multiple months differences are averaged；
The prediction result of the autoregressive moving-average model is corrected according to the mean value.
5. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, any number of the risk factor between 1.1-1.3.
6. a kind of device of pre- electricity payment, which is characterized in that described device is applied to server, including：
Electricity historical data acquisition module, the electricity historical data for obtaining user；
Next month power quantity predicting module, the next month electricity for predicting the user according to ARMA model；
First pre- electricity payment computing module, for calculating the first pre- electricity payment according to the next month electricity and current electricity prices；
Second pre- electricity payment computing module, for the described first pre- electricity payment to be multiplied by risk factor to calculate the second advance payment
Receive the electricity charge；The risk factor is more than 1；
Notification module, for the described first pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment to be notified the user, so that institute
State user's pre- electricity payment in full amount.
7. device according to claim 6, which is characterized in that the next month power quantity predicting module is additionally operable to：
The time series of electricity is obtained according to the electricity historical data；
Whether the time series for verifying the electricity is stationary sequence, if not, carrying out tranquilization；
Auto-correlation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient are asked to the sequence after the tranquilization；
Model Identification is carried out according to the auto-correlation coefficient and the partial correlation coefficient and parameter Estimation obtains model prediction expression
Formula；
The next month electricity of the user is predicted according to the model prediction expression formula.
8. device according to claim 6, which is characterized in that described device further includes：
Electricity charge remaining sum acquisition module, the electricity charge remaining sum for obtaining the user；
Difference calculating module, for calculating separately the described first pre- electricity payment and the second pre- electricity payment and the electricity charge
The difference of remaining sum；
Difference notification module, for the difference to be notified the user.
9. device according to claim 6, which is characterized in that described device further includes：
Electricity difference calculating module, the difference for calculating the next month electricity and the practical electricity of user's next month；
Mean value computation module, for the multiple months differences to be averaged；
Correcting module, the prediction result for correcting the autoregressive moving-average model according to the mean value.
10. device according to claim 6, which is characterized in that arbitrary number of the risk factor between 1.1-1.3
Value.
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| CN201810357047.1A CN108596384A (en) | 2018-04-19 | 2018-04-19 | The method and apparatus of pre- electricity payment |
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