CN108446816A - A kind of reliability estimation method and system of energy hinge model - Google Patents
A kind of reliability estimation method and system of energy hinge model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of reliability estimation method and system of energy hinge model, including:The operation factor of each energy converter is calculated according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model;The power capability of energy hinge is obtained according to the operation factor;In conjunction with the power capability of the energy hinge, energy consumer with can demand and the operation factor obtain the reliability of energy hinge.The present invention is filled with the vacancy of energy hinge the reliability of the adjustment model assessment.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to multi-energy system and its utilize field, and in particular to a kind of reliability assessment of energy hinge model
Method and system.
Background technology
Energy internet is the energy and the product of the Internet converged, realizes the opening and interconnecting of the multiple types energy, is formed
Multipotency streaming system.Multipotency streaming system relative to it is mutually independent it is single can streaming system it is advantageous that:First, the multiple types energy
Opening and interconnecting can more easily realize energy cascade utilization and energy overall management, to improve energy utilization effect
Rate;Second, multipotency streaming system can give full play to the handling characteristics of the various types energy, be conducive to the consumption of regenerative resource,
Realize the peak load shifting of power grid;Third, the comprehensive utilization of multiple-energy-source, improving using for energy consumer can reliability;4th, it is more
The repeated construction cost that can reduce infrastructure is built in the overall planning of kind energy facilities.Multipotency streaming system is as a kind of energy
Using the new concept in field, its proposition and development be both energy resource system self-growth trend and external environment and society it is right
The improved active demand of energy utilization mode.
However, the energy supply reliability for how verifying energy hinge is very important, ensure multipotency stream system in the prior art
The method of the energy supply reliability of system still belongs to blank.
Invention content
In order to solve the above-mentioned deficiency in the presence of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of reliability of energy hinge model
Appraisal procedure and system.
Technical solution provided by the invention is:A kind of reliability estimation method of energy hinge model, including:
The throwing of each energy converter is calculated according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
Produce the factor;
The power capability of energy hinge is obtained according to the operation factor;
In conjunction with the power capability of the energy hinge, energy consumer with can demand and the operation factor obtain energy
Measure the reliability of hinge.
Preferably, each energy converter in the energy hinge model, including:
Transformational relation between arbitrary two kinds of energy;The wherein described energy includes electric energy, chemical energy and thermal energy, institute
Stating in energy hinge model has 32Kind energy converter.
Preferably, the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter calculate each energy in the hinge model according to energy
The operation factor of converter, including:
The work of each energy converter is calculated according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
State possibility;
The probability of happening of energy hinge operating status is calculated according to the working condition possibility of each energy converter;
The operation factor of energy hinge is confirmed according to the probability of happening of the energy hinge operating status.
Preferably, in the energy hinge model each energy converter failure rate and repair rate, be shown below respectively:
In formula:F:The failure rate matrix of each energy converter in energy hinge model;fαβ:Each energy in energy hinge model
The failure rate of converter;The value of α and β is e, t and c;e:Electric energy;t:Thermal energy;c:Chemical energy;
In formula:M:The reparation rate matrix of each energy converter in energy hinge model;μαβ:Each energy in energy hinge model
The repair rate of converter.
Preferably, the possibility of each energy converter working condition, including:
The possibility that the possibility of each energy converter operation and each energy converter are not run;
The possibility of each energy converter operation, is shown below:
In formula:Rαβ:The possibility of energy converter operation;
The possibility that each energy converter is not run, is shown below:
In formula:Qαβ:The possibility that energy converter is not run.
Preferably, the operation factor that energy hinge is confirmed according to the probability of happening of the energy hinge working condition,
It is shown below:
In formula:P:Operation factor matrix;Be converted to the working condition of the energy converter of electric energy;Be converted to chemistry
The working condition of the energy converter of energy;Be converted to the working condition of the energy converter of thermal energy.
Preferably, described that the power capability of energy hinge is obtained according to the operation factor, it is shown below:
In formula:S:The power capability matrix of energy hinge under different conditions;Each energy converter of energy hinge
Power capability;The value of α and β is e, t and c;e:Electric energy;t:Thermal energy;c:Chemical energy.
Preferably, the power capability of energy hinge described in the combination and using for energy consumer can demand and the throwings
The production factor obtains the reliability of energy hinge, including:
According to the operating status for calculating energy hinge with energy demand of the power capability of energy hinge and energy consumer;
The reliability of energy hinge is obtained according to the operating status of the energy hinge and the operation factor.
Preferably, described that energy hinge is calculated according to the power capability of energy hinge and the use energy demand of energy consumer
Operating status is shown below:
Bij=Lj≤Sij i∈[1,…,8],j∈[1,2,3]
In formula:Bij:The operating status matrix of energy hinge;Lj:The requirement matrix of energy consumer;Sij:Energy hinge
Power capability matrix.
Preferably, the requirement matrix of the energy consumer, is shown below:
L=[Le Lc Lt]
In formula:Le:Demand of the energy consumer to electric energy;Lc:Demand of the energy consumer to chemical energy;Lt:Energy expenditure
Demand of the person to thermal energy.
Preferably, described that the reliable of energy hinge is obtained according to the operating status and the operation factor of the energy hinge
Property, it is shown below:
In formula:Pout:The reliability matrix of energy hinge;Peout:The energy supply reliability of electric energy in energy hinge;Pcout:Energy
The energy supply reliability of chemical energy in the hinge of source;Ptout:The energy supply reliability of thermal energy in energy hinge;BT:Operating status matrix turns
It sets;P:Operation factor matrix.
Based on same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a kind of reliability evaluation systems of energy hinge model, including:
Computing module:For calculating each energy according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
The operation factor of energy converter;
Processing module:For obtaining the power capability of energy hinge according to the operation factor;
Analysis module:For in conjunction with the energy hinge power capability, energy consumer with can demand and described
The operation factor obtains the reliability of energy hinge.
Preferably, the computing module, including:
First computing unit:It is each for being calculated according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
The working condition possibility of energy converter;
Second computing unit:For calculating the operation of energy hinge according to the working condition possibility of each energy converter
The probability of happening of state;
Third computing unit:Operation for confirming energy hinge according to the probability of happening of the energy hinge operating status
The factor.
Preferably, the analysis module, including:
4th computing unit:For calculating energy according to the power capability of energy hinge and the use energy demand of energy consumer
The operating status of hinge;
Analytic unit:For according to the operating status and the operation factor of the energy hinge obtain energy hinge can
By property.
Compared with the immediate prior art, technical solution provided by the invention has the advantages that:
Technical solution provided by the invention, according to the failure rate and repair rate meter of each energy converter in energy hinge model
Calculate the operation factor of each energy converter;Then the power capability of energy hinge is obtained according to the operation factor;In conjunction with the energy
Measure the power capability of hinge, energy consumer with energy demand and the operation factor obtains the reliability of energy hinge, be filled with
The vacancy of energy hinge the reliability of the adjustment model assessment.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the reliability estimation method of energy hinge model of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the structural schematic diagram of energy hinge model of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
For a better understanding of the present invention, present disclosure is done further with example with reference to the accompanying drawings of the specification
Explanation.
The reliability estimation method of a kind of energy hinge model provided in the present embodiment, as shown in Figure 1, including:
The throwing of each energy converter is calculated according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
Produce the factor;
The power capability of energy hinge is obtained according to the operation factor;
In conjunction with the power capability of the energy hinge, energy consumer with can demand and the operation factor obtain energy
Measure the reliability of hinge.
The energy hinge model provided in the present embodiment has the input of three kinds of forms such as electric energy, chemical energy, thermal energy and defeated
Go out, operation reserve is that the electric energy of input is divided into three parts, and portion is directly exported with electrical energy form, and portion passes through electric energy-
Chemical energy converter is converted into the output of chemical energy form, a to be converted into form of thermal energy output by electric energy-heat converter;It is defeated
The chemical energy entered is divided into three parts, and portion exports directly in the form of chemical energy, a to be turned by chemical energy-energy converter
Electrical energy form output is turned to, it is a that form of thermal energy output is converted by chemical energy-heat converter;The thermal energy of input can be by
It is divided into three parts, portion is directly exported with form of thermal energy, and portion is converted into electrical energy form by thermal energy-energy converter and exports, and one
Part is converted into the output of chemical energy form by thermal energy-chemical energy converter.
The energy hinge model used in the present embodiment is as shown in Figure 1.E represents electric energy in figure, and T represents thermal energy, C representativeizations
Energy is learned, E-T represents electric energy-heat converter, and E-C represents electric energy-chemical energy converter, and E-E represents electric energy-energy converter,
T-E represents thermal energy-energy converter, and T-C represents thermal energy-chemical energy converter, and T-T represents thermal energy-heat converter, C-T generations
Table chemical energy-heat converter, C-E represent chemical energy-energy converter, and C-C represents chemical energy-chemical energy converter.
Abstract model of the energy hinge as one kind of multiple energy transition equipments, formulation is coupling matrix, such as formula
Shown in (1-1).
C in formulaαβIt is defined as coupling factor, it represents the transfer efficiency that beta type energy is converted to from the energy of α types.
In energy hinge model, the energy converter of not all type can be all used, and pass through failure definition rate
Model and repair rate model judge whether the conversion between arbitrary two kinds of energy occurs.
Assuming that the operation action of energy hinge meets stable state markoff process, then the form that can refer to formula (1-1) is similar
Ground defines the failure rate matrix (2-1) of energy hinge and repairs rate matrix (2-2).
During actual motion, not all energy converter can all be used, for the energy not run
Source converter sets fαβEqual to 0, μ is setαβEqual to 1.
The working condition of energy converter includes:What the possibility and energy converter of energy converter operation were not run can
It can property;
The possibility of energy converter operation is defined as Rαβ, as shown in formula (2-3):
The possibility that energy converter is not run is defined as Qαβ, as shown in formula (2-4):
As shown in Figure 2, all types of energy of output end are all linked together by the energy of input terminal in energy hinge,
Some of which contact is direct, some contacts are indirect.All energy conversion regimes are in practical application in energy hinge
In be all likely to be at operation or not operating status, therefore, in the present embodiment, only just export same type of energy converter
It discusses, eight kinds of possible operating statuses can be summarized, as shown in table 1.In table, Τeβ、Τtβ、ΤcβInput is respectively represented as electricity
Energy, thermal energy, chemical energy output are all the energy converter of beta type energy.
Listed operating status probability of happening will be calculated by failure rate and repair rate in table 1.
It is provided in the present embodiment for state 3:ΤeβOperation, ΤtβOperation, ΤcβIt does not run, i.e., input is in Fig. 1
Three kinds of energy converters E-E, E-C and E-T of electric energy are run, and input three kinds of energy converters T-T, T-C and T-E for thermal energy
It all runs, inputs and do not run for three kinds of energy converters C-C, C-E and C-T of chemical energy, the probability such as formula of generating state 3
Shown in (3-1):
The operating status of 1 energy hinge of table
By failure rate and repair rate, the operation factor of each energy converter in energy hinge can be defined, throwing is passed through
The production factor can reflect the reliability of each energy converter facility in energy hinge, wherein if there is energy is without energy turn
Parallel operation and directly from the arrival end of energy hinge be connected to output end then think the energy transmission reliability be 100%.One
The operation factor matrix of energy hinge can be written as P, i.e. the theoretically working condition of energy hinge model, as shown in formula (4-1).
In formula:Be converted to the working condition of the energy converter of electric energy;Be converted to the energy converter of chemical energy
Working condition;Be converted to the working condition of the energy converter of thermal energy.
A kind of operating status of energy hinge whether reliably under the operating status power capability and energy consumer
Energy requirement is related.Then, the power capability matrix of one each energy converter of energy hinge of definition is neededPower capability square
The form of battle array is similar to the form of coupling matrix C, as shown in formula (4-2).
Energy supply of the energy hinge under different operating statuses can be obtained by the power capability matrix of table 1 and each energy converter
Ability matrix S, as shown in formula (4-3).
Power capability matrix has 8 rows 3 row, and often row corresponds to a kind of possible working condition, each list of elements in matrix
Show that the fan-out capability of under working condition energy hinge to particular energy, such as the second row secondary series indicate, is not transported in e-c
Row, c-c operations, in the state of t-c operations, energy hinge can be provided the fan-out capability of chemical energy.
The element of s-matrix and P matrixes is meant that correspondingly.P matrix first rows indicate that the energy of output electric energy turns
8 kinds of states of parallel operation, secondary series indicate that 8 kinds of states of the energy converter of output chemical energy, third row indicate output thermal energy
8 kinds of states of energy converter;The sum of P values of each row should be 1.
One operating status energized that can succeed centainly needs the condition met to be:The energy supply of energy hinge under the state
Ability will be equal to or more than the demand of energy consumer, it is therefore desirable to establish the matrix B that one is made of Boolean variable to store
The operating status being likely to occur in practice defines the requirement matrix L of an energy consumer as shown in formula (4-4):
L=[Le Lc Lt] (4‐4)
Wherein Le、Lc、LtRespectively represent demand of the energy consumer to electric energy, chemical energy, thermal energy.
B is defined as formula (4-5), referred to as operating status matrix, when the power capability for meeting energy hinge is equal to or more than energy
When measuring consumer demand, the value of B is 1;Otherwise it is 0.
Bij=Lj≤Sij i∈[1,…,8],j∈[1,2,3] (4‐5)
Finally, by the operation factor matrix of energy hinge and operating status matrix, the reliable of energy hinge model can be obtained
Property matrix, as shown in formula (4-6),
Wherein Peout、Pcout、PtoutThe energy supply reliability for respectively representing the electric energy of the energy hinge, chemical energy and thermal energy refers to
Mark, BT:The transposition of operating status matrix.
The present embodiment can also be extended to the Optimal Configuration Method of energy hinge model, the configuration mode of energy hinge at
Simultaneously depending on the power capability of the various energy converters of energy hinge and energy consumer to the need of various energy whether work(
Ability is sought, as long as energy consumer is less than the requirement capability of energy the power capability of energy hinge, then this configuration mode
Energy hinge is successful.
Based on same inventive concept, a kind of reliability evaluation system of energy hinge model is additionally provided in the present embodiment,
Including:
Computing module:For calculating each energy according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
The operation factor of energy converter;
Processing module:For obtaining the power capability of energy hinge according to the operation factor;
Analysis module:For in conjunction with the energy hinge power capability, energy consumer with can demand and described
The operation factor obtains the reliability of energy hinge.
In embodiment, the computing module, including:
First computing unit:It is each for being calculated according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
The working condition possibility of energy converter;
Second computing unit:For calculating the operation of energy hinge according to the working condition possibility of each energy converter
The probability of happening of state;
Third computing unit:Operation for confirming energy hinge according to the probability of happening of the energy hinge operating status
The factor.
In embodiment, the analysis module, including:
4th computing unit:For calculating energy according to the power capability of energy hinge and the use energy demand of energy consumer
The operating status of hinge;
Analytic unit:For according to the operating status and the operation factor of the energy hinge obtain energy hinge can
By property.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can be provided as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or reality combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the application
Apply the form of example.Moreover, the application can be used in one or more wherein include computer usable program code computer
The computer program production implemented in usable storage medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.)
The form of product.
The application is with reference to method, the flow of equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present application
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that can be realized by computer program instructions every first-class in flowchart and/or the block diagram
The combination of flow and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.These computer programs can be provided
Instruct the processor of all-purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices to produce
A raw machine so that the instruction executed by computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices is generated for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one flow of flow chart or one box of multiple flows and/or block diagram or multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, can guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works so that instruction generation stored in the computer readable memory includes referring to
Enable the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one flow of flow chart or multiple flows and/or one box of block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that count
Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, in computer or
The instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one flow of flow chart or multiple flows and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
It these are only the embodiment of the present invention, be not intended to restrict the invention, it is all in the spirit and principles in the present invention
Within, any modification, equivalent substitution, improvement and etc. done, be all contained in apply pending scope of the presently claimed invention it
It is interior.
Claims (14)
1. a kind of reliability estimation method of energy hinge model, which is characterized in that including:
According to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model calculate the operation of each energy converter because
Son;
The power capability of energy hinge is obtained according to the operation factor;
In conjunction with the power capability of the energy hinge, energy consumer with can demand and the operation factor obtain energy pivot
The reliability of knob.
2. reliability estimation method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that each energy conversion in the energy hinge model
Device, including:
Transformational relation between arbitrary two kinds of energy;The wherein described energy includes electric energy, chemical energy and thermal energy, the energy
Have 3 in amount hinge model2Kind energy converter.
3. reliability estimation method as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that each energy in the hinge model according to energy
The failure rate and repair rate of converter calculate the operation factor of each energy converter, including:
The working condition of each energy converter is calculated according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
Possibility;
The probability of happening of energy hinge operating status is calculated according to the working condition possibility of each energy converter;
The operation factor of energy hinge is confirmed according to the probability of happening of the energy hinge operating status.
4. reliability estimation method as claimed in claim 3, which is characterized in that each energy conversion in the energy hinge model
The failure rate and repair rate of device, are shown below respectively:
In formula:F:The failure rate matrix of each energy converter in energy hinge model;fαβ:Each energy conversion in energy hinge model
The failure rate of device;The value of α and β is e, t and c;e:Electric energy;t:Thermal energy;c:Chemical energy;
In formula:M:The reparation rate matrix of each energy converter in energy hinge model;μαβ:Each energy conversion in energy hinge model
The repair rate of device.
5. reliability estimation method as claimed in claim 4, which is characterized in that each energy converter working condition can
Energy property, including:
The possibility that the possibility of each energy converter operation and each energy converter are not run;
The possibility of each energy converter operation, is shown below:
In formula:Rαβ:The possibility of energy converter operation;
The possibility that each energy converter is not run, is shown below:
In formula:Qαβ:The possibility that energy converter is not run.
6. reliability estimation method as claimed in claim 5, which is characterized in that described according to the energy hinge working condition
Probability of happening confirm energy hinge the operation factor, be shown below:
In formula:P:Operation factor matrix;Be converted to the working condition of the energy converter of electric energy;Be converted to chemical energy
The working condition of energy converter;Be converted to the working condition of the energy converter of thermal energy.
7. reliability estimation method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that described to obtain energy according to the operation factor
The power capability of hinge, is shown below:
In formula:S:The power capability matrix of energy hinge under different conditions;The energy supply energy of each energy converter of energy hinge
Power;The value of α and β is e, t and c;e:Electric energy;t:Thermal energy;c:Chemical energy.
8. reliability estimation method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the energy supply energy of energy hinge described in the combination
Power and energy consumer with can demand and the operation factor obtain the reliability of energy hinge, including:
According to the operating status for calculating energy hinge with energy demand of the power capability of energy hinge and energy consumer;
The reliability of energy hinge is obtained according to the operating status of the energy hinge and the operation factor.
9. reliability estimation method as claimed in claim 8, which is characterized in that the power capability according to energy hinge and
The operating status that energy hinge is calculated with energy demand of energy consumer, is shown below:
Bij=Lj≤Sij i∈[1,…,8],j∈[1,2,3]
In formula:Bij:The operating status matrix of energy hinge;Lj:The requirement matrix of energy consumer;Sij:The energy supply of energy hinge
Ability matrix.
10. reliability estimation method as claimed in claim 9, which is characterized in that the requirement matrix of the energy consumer, such as
Shown in following formula:
L=[Le Lc Lt]
In formula:Le:Demand of the energy consumer to electric energy;Lc:Demand of the energy consumer to chemical energy;Lt:Energy consumer couple
The demand of thermal energy.
11. reliability estimation method as claimed in claim 8, which is characterized in that the operation according to the energy hinge
State and the operation factor obtain the reliability of energy hinge, are shown below:
In formula:Pout:The reliability matrix of energy hinge;Peout:The energy supply reliability of electric energy in energy hinge;Pcout:Energy pivot
The energy supply reliability of chemical energy in knob;Ptout:The energy supply reliability of thermal energy in energy hinge;BT:The transposition of operating status matrix;
P:Operation factor matrix.
12. a kind of reliability evaluation system of energy hinge model, which is characterized in that including:
Computing module:Turn for calculating each energy according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
The operation factor of parallel operation;
Processing module:For obtaining the power capability of energy hinge according to the operation factor;
Analysis module:Use for power capability, energy consumer in conjunction with the energy hinge can demand and the operation
The factor obtains the reliability of energy hinge.
13. reliability evaluation system as claimed in claim 12, which is characterized in that the computing module, including:
First computing unit:For calculating each energy according to the failure rate and repair rate of each energy converter in energy hinge model
The working condition possibility of converter;
Second computing unit:For calculating energy hinge operating status according to the working condition possibility of each energy converter
Probability of happening;
Third computing unit:For according to the probability of happening of the energy hinge operating status confirm energy hinge operation because
Son.
14. reliability evaluation system as claimed in claim 12, which is characterized in that the analysis module, including:
4th computing unit:For calculating energy hinge according to the power capability of energy hinge and the use energy demand of energy consumer
Operating status;
Analytic unit:For obtaining the reliable of energy hinge according to the operating status and the operation factor of the energy hinge
Property.
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CN201810100962.2A CN108446816B (en) | 2018-02-01 | Reliability assessment method and system for energy hub model |
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CN201810100962.2A CN108446816B (en) | 2018-02-01 | Reliability assessment method and system for energy hub model |
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