CN108377003A - A kind of wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation method - Google Patents
A kind of wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation method Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
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- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E10/00—Energy generation through renewable energy sources
- Y02E10/50—Photovoltaic [PV] energy
- Y02E10/56—Power conversion systems, e.g. maximum power point trackers
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- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation methods, appraisement system used by this method includes four class first class index, each first class index respectively contains several two-level index, each index embodies the overall characteristic and intermittence of power generation, fluctuation and randomness respectively, this method seeks each two-level index respectively first, then determine that the weight of each first class index, two-level index, the weight accounted for according still further to each index seek overall score successively.Evaluation method through the invention can full appreciation wind-light-electricity generated output characteristic, for advanced optimize power supply architecture, promote electric power sustainable development technical support is provided.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to generation engineering technical fields, and in particular to a kind of wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation side
Method.
Background technology
There is the unstable features such as intermittent, fluctuation and randomness in photovoltaic, wind-powered electricity generation generated output, extensive wind-light-electricity is simultaneously
Net proposes new requirement to electric system power grid construction, power supply architecture configuration and traffic control pattern.For ease of electric system
Interior adjustable source more preferably coordinates honourable electricity operation, needs to carry out system full appreciation to wind-light-electricity generated output characteristic, to promote
Stablize sustainable development into new energy.
Currently, domestic scholars Wu Xing springs are using monthly output, the typical side such as daily output process and output process first-order difference
Wind-light-electricity year, season, sunrise force characteristic and fluctuation is described (Wu Xing spring wind light generation characteristic researchs and its over the ground in method
The Nanjing influence [D] of area's power grid：Southeast China University, 2014)；Tian Xiaojun etc. using year output accumulation curve, maximum output probability,
The indexs such as month maximum output, daily output or method are analyzed (Tian Xiaojun, Liu Yong, summer to wind-powered electricity generation year, month, day power producing characteristics
The Hebei Academy of Sciences security personnel wind power output characteristic research [J] journal, 2010,27 (4)：43-47.)；Xin Songxu etc. is to Jiuquan wind
Electric base contribute season characteristic, day characteristic, contribute distribution, guaranteed capacity, output change rate etc. analyzed (Xin Songxu, in vain
Jian Hua, the Jiuquans the Guo Yan top gem of a girdle-pendant research of wind-powered electricity generation characteristic [J] energy technology economys, 2010,22 (12)：16-20.)；Zhang Xueli etc.
Photovoltaic fluctuation characteristic, power producing characteristics are analyzed using stability bandwidth, rate of load condensate index (Zhang Xueli, Liu Qihui, Ma Huimeng,
Equal photovoltaic plant output power analysis of Influential Factors [J] power grids and clean energy resource, 2012,28 (5)：75-81.).Currently, state
Interior scholar is concentrated mainly on the spies such as description wind-light-electricity output process, fluctuation to wind-power electricity generation, the research of photovoltaic generation power producing characteristics
Property, and not yet form the index system and phase of the characteristics such as set of system evaluation wind-light-electricity output intermittence, randomness, fluctuation
Answer evaluation method.
Invention content
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation methods, solve existing evaluation method
Evaluation has the problem of limitation.
The technical solution adopted in the present invention is, a kind of wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation method, use are following
Assessment indicator system, the system include four class first class index, and each first class index respectively contains several two-level index, two-stage index
Collectively form the assessment indicator system；
Wherein, first class index is：Overall characteristic index, randomness index, intermittent index, fluctuation index；It is comprehensive special
Two-level index under property index is：Economically network capacity amount, economically network capacity amount correspond to accumulation electricity ratio, electricity utilization rate；With
Two-level index under machine index is：Design dependability and guarantee output, available capacity；Two-level index under intermittent index
For：Wind power plant demodulates peak rate and abandons wind rate with peak regulation, contributes continuously；Two-level index under fluctuation index is：Output variability, unevenness
Weighing apparatus rate；
Each two-level index degree of membership is sought respectively, then determines the weight of each first class index, two-level index successively, according still further to
Weight shared by each index seeks overall score.
Further, each two-level index of the present invention is sought to seek the index degree of membership according to membership function
γ, wherein numerical value more bigger using cumulative degree of membership formula (1) sought by more excellent index, and the smaller more excellent index of numerical value is using gradually
Subtracting degree of membership formula (2) to seek, the more more placed in the middle more excellent index of numerical value is sought using degree of membership formula (3) placed in the middle,
In formula, XiFor index independent variable, S1And S2For constant.
The overall score is sought using formula (10)~formula (14),
In formula, m, n, a, b are respectively that first class index overall characteristic, randomness, intermittence, fluctuation correspond to two-level appraisement and refer to
Mark sum；γIt is comprehensive, m、γWith n、γBetween, a、γWave, bRespectively first class index overall characteristic, randomness, intermittence, fluctuation correspond to two
Grade evaluation index is subordinate to angle value, μIt is comprehensive, m、μWith n、μBetween, a、μWave, bRespectively first class index overall characteristic, randomness, intermittence, wave
Dynamic property corresponds to two-level appraisement index and accounts for corresponding first class index weight；δIt is comprehensive、δAt random、δIntermittently、δFluctuationRespectively first class index overall characteristic,
Randomness, intermittence, fluctuation scoring.δcScoring is corresponded to for first class index c；μcIt accounts in overall first class index and weighs for first class index c
Weight；δ is overall score.
Further, the independent variable X of economically network capacity figureofmerit of the present inventioniIt is to compare by using expense present value method
Grid-connected when difference online capacity to abandon electric situation and corresponding transmission of electricity scale and track investment, the scheme for selecting expense present worth smaller is come true
It is fixed, S1、S2Value is 0.35,0.80 respectively.
Further, economically network capacity amount of the present invention corresponds to the independent variable X of accumulation electricity ratio indexiFor photovoltaic,
Wind-powered electricity generation economically network capacity amount corresponds to accumulation electricity and accounts for annual design generated energy ratio, by checking that output-fraction-electricity is accumulated
Curve obtains, S1、S2Value is 0.75,1 respectively.
Further, the independent variable X of electricity utilization rate index of the present inventioniElectricity is dissolved by power grid for local sights electricity
Ratio is calculated using formula (4),
In formula, XiFor electricity utilization rate, EOnlineFor electricity volume, EDesignTo design generated energy；Its S1、S2Value is respectively
70%, 1.
Further, design dependability of the present invention and the independent variable X for ensureing output indexiFor fraction 95% when wind
Photoelectricity output size accounts for the ratio of installed capacity, by checking that output-fraction-electricity accumulation curve obtains, S1、S2Respectively
Value is 0,3%.
Further, available capacity of the present invention is that output size accounts for dress under 95% fraction of electric system peak time
Machine capacity ratio, by counting to obtain to electric system peak of power consumption period light wind power output；Its S1、S2Respectively value be 0,
5%.
Further, honourable electric field of the present invention demodulates the independent variable X of peak rateiIt is calculated using formula (5)
In formula, Xi is that honourable electric field demodulates peak rate, NOnlineIt is wind-light-electricity in the online capacity in electric system low ebb period, NEnsure
To contribute in the guarantee in electric system low ebb period；NInstallationFor honourable electric field installed capacity；Its S1、S2Respectively value be -0.4, -
0.7。
Further, the successional independent variable X of the present invention that contributesiContinuous capacity during contributing for wind-powered electricity generation a year and a day
More than or equal to economically network capacity amount, and total duration of the continuous capacity duration more than or equal to 1h, 5h, 10h accounts for the ratio of annual 8760h
Example, S1、S2Equal value is 0,15% respectively.
Further, the independent variable X of output luffing of the present inventioniIt is calculated using formula (6),
In formula, yiFor honourable electric field output luffing；NIt is current to contributeIt currently contributes size for honourable electric field；NEve is contributedFor wind-light-electricity
Field eve output size；NInstallationFor honourable electric field installed capacity；Frequency statistics is carried out to output luffing again, and then is contributed
Variability；Its S1、S2Value is 80%, 1 respectively.
Further, disequilibrium rate of the present invention includes year disequilibrium rate XYear, i, moon disequilibrium rate XMonth, iOr day is unbalanced
Rate XDay, i, it is calculated respectively according to formula (7), (8), (9),
SYear 1、SYear 2Value is 0.6,1, S respectivelyThe moon 1、SThe moon 2Value is 0.2,0.9, S respectivelyDay 1、SDay 2Respectively value be 0.1,
0.9.Then, overall disequilibrium rate degree of membership is obtained to the accumulation summation of year, month, day disequilibrium rate degree of membership using weighted average.
Further, the determination method of weight of the present invention is that the weight of first class index is given according to the attention degree of evaluation
Give distribution, the weighted average of two-level index distributes the first class index weight belonging to it.
The invention has the advantages that the present invention proposes a kind of evaluation side evaluating wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics
Method, this method establish in a set of comprehensive and systematic assessment indicator system, by this method can full appreciation wind-light-electricity generate electricity out
Force characteristic is realized all kinds of for power source combination schemes of providing multiple forms of energy to complement each other such as more preferable optimization thermoelectricity, water power, water-storage, wind-powered electricity generation, photoelectricity
Energy advantages are complementary, optimize power supply architecture, and electric power sustainable development is promoted to provide technical support.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is wind-light-electricity generated output evaluating characteristics index system of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is embodiment output-fraction-electricity accumulation curve；
Fig. 3 is the relation curve that embodiment grid connection capacity accounts for installed capacity ratio and expense present worth；
Fig. 4 is embodiment moon disequilibrium rate statistical result.
Specific implementation mode
Present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments, but the present invention is not limited to
These embodiments.
The wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation method of the present invention as shown in Figure 1, implement according to the following steps：
S1, assessment indicator system is established
Photovoltaic, wind-powered electricity generation generated output have the characteristics such as intermittent, fluctuation and randomness, are thoroughly evaluating photovoltaic or wind-powered electricity generation
Power generation characteristics build index system in terms of overall characteristic and independent characteristic two, and index are carried out hierarchical management.
According to photovoltaic or wind-powered electricity generation power generation characteristics, four class first class index are built：Overall characteristic index, randomness index, interval
Property index, fluctuation index.
(1) contain two-level index under overall characteristic index：Economically network capacity amount, economically network capacity amount correspond to accumulation electricity ratio
Example, electricity volume and electricity utilization rate.
1. economically network capacity amount
Online capacity refers to the capacity of photovoltaic plant (or wind power plant) access electric system, is less than or equal to photovoltaic plant
(or wind power plant) installed capacity.Online capacity rate refers to that wind (light) is electrically accessed power system capacity and accounts for the electric installed capacity of wind (light)
Ratio.It is grid-connected to abandon electric rate to refer to wind (light) electricity be failed by online capacity limit ratio using part electricity in generated energy.
To determine the photoelectricity of economical rationality, wind power utilization, need to study photoelectricity, wind-powered electricity generation online capacity with it is corresponding caused by simultaneously
Net abandons the relationship of electric rate.When the economically network capacity amount of photoelectricity (wind-powered electricity generation) of the present invention is according to different online capacity it is grid-connected abandon electric situation and
Corresponding transmission of electricity scale and track investment determine after being analyzed, and compare using expense present value method, i.e., to be provided most to system
The online volume solutions of big electricity are as reference scheme, the electricity difference replacement thermoelectricity fuel between other schemes and reference scheme
Take and emission reduction benefit is supplemented, calculate each scheme expense present worth, expense present worth is smaller, and scheme is more excellent, then by just quasi- after Integrated comparative
The economically network capacity amount of wind-powered electricity generation, photoelectricity.
With save be scope of statistics when, between 45%~65%, wind-powered electricity generation economically network capacity amount exists photovoltaic economically network capacity amount
Between 45%~70%.Then relatively economical is reasonable in above range for wind-light-electricity economically network capacity amount, otherwise, on the contrary.
2. economically network capacity amount corresponds to accumulation electricity ratio
Economically network capacity amount corresponds to the synthesis output situation that accumulation electricity ratio can determine whether photovoltaic (or wind-powered electricity generation).The index is logical
It crosses output-fraction-electricity accumulation curve to be determined, output-fraction-electricity accumulation curve is according to photovoltaic (or wind-powered electricity generation)
1 whole year, design lasted output process, sorted from big to small to output, and statistics obtains the corresponding output size of different fractions and tired
Product generated energy, draws output-fraction-electricity accumulation curve.This curve can analyze different contribute corresponding fraction and power generations
Amount analyzes the corresponding electricity of different output sections and accounts for design annual electricity generating capacity ratio.Due to the change of electric system typical day load curve
Change, can also count the output frequency characteristic and generated energy frequency distribution characteristic of annual (or season, moon) daily specific time period.
The present invention is on the basis of the economically network capacity amount of determination, by checking that output-fraction-electricity accumulation curve determines warp
Ji online capacity corresponds to accumulation electricity ratio, specially checks that economically network capacity amount corresponds to accumulation electricity and accounts for annual design generated energy
Ratio.In view of photovoltaic plant, wind-powered electricity generation economically network capacity amount are respectively generally 55%, 60% or so, so the present invention is to photovoltaic
Power station presses 60% by economically network capacity amount 55%, wind-powered electricity generation, statistics accumulation electricity ratio.Individually photovoltaic plant economically network capacity amount is
When 55%, accumulation power station ratio is 0.86 or so；When single wind power plant economically network capacity amount is 60%, accumulation electricity accounting is
0.83 or so, increase with scope of statistics and photovoltaic plant (or wind power plant) quantity, economically network capacity amount corresponds to accumulation electricity ratio
Can generally it increase.With save be scope of statistics when, photovoltaic plant economically network capacity amount 55% when accumulation electricity ratio be 0.92 or so；
Wind-powered electricity generation economically network capacity amount 60% when accumulation electricity ratio be 0.95 or so.If photovoltaic plant (or wind-powered electricity generation) economically network capacity amount
(photovoltaic presses 0.55, and wind-powered electricity generation is by when 0.60) corresponding accumulation electricity ratio is more than above range, it is believed that this area photovoltaic (or wind
Electricity) contribute overall characteristic it is preferable；Otherwise, on the contrary.
3. electricity volume and electricity utilization rate
Electricity volume is that photovoltaic plant (or wind power plant) design annual electricity generating capacity deduction abandons the electricity dissolved by power grid after electricity.
Electricity is abandoned to be divided into two parts：It is grid-connected caused by by online capacity limit to abandon electricity, and peak regulation caused by consumption is insufficient abandons electricity.Abandon electric rate
=grid-connected abandon electric rate+peak regulation and abandon electric rate.
The ratio that electricity utilization rate refers to local photovoltaic, wind-powered electricity generation dissolves in power grid, reflection power grid consumption wind (light) electric field electricity
Measure situation.
At present, it is considered that it is preferable that photovoltaic (or wind-powered electricity generation) electricity utilization rate, which reaches 90% or more,.
(2) contain two-level index under randomness index：Design dependability and guarantee output, available capacity.
1. design dependability is contributed with guarantee
Photovoltaic plant (or wind power plant) ensure contribute be equal to electric system to photoelectricity, wind-powered electricity generation require fraction it is corresponding go out
Power ensures to contribute bigger, and the electric power that can be provided to electric system is bigger.
General Power Plant Design fraction should be drafted according to factors such as its scale, the proportions for accounting for electric system, larger, account for
Its design dependability of the larger power station of electric system proportion is about 95%.Wind power plant, photovoltaic plant go out since its own is distinctive
Force characteristic, design dependability are just quasi- with reference to general power station.Wind field design fraction of the present invention uses 90%~95%, because
Between fraction 90%-100%, wind power plant variation of accordingly contributing is smaller, in the wind power plant of certain same wind band construction, due to
Rate can reach 1 while its wind power plant, and between fraction 90%-100%, wind power plant, which is accordingly contributed, changes smaller.Therefore, wind
Electric field design dependability influences less, temporarily to use 90%~95% between 90%-100% on ensureing to contribute.Photoelectricity of the present invention
Fraction also temporarily take 90%~95% because photoelectricity, which is contributed, has feature round the clock, even if not considering night without the period of contributing, by
In power grid peak period at dusk, though the photoelectricity output under photoelectricity difference fraction has difference at this time, variation is little, therefore
Temporarily take 90%~95%.
Guarantee output under photoelectricity fraction 95% is 0.
The factors such as guarantee output under wind power plant fraction 95% and wind power plant geographical location, scale are related, generally
It is 0 that single wind power plant, which ensures to contribute, and as wind-powered electricity generation number and scale increase, ensureing to contribute can increase, but increasing degree is little,
Ensure to contribute and accounts for installed capacity ratio generally 1% hereinafter, maximum can reach 2% or so.
2. available capacity
Light (wind) electricity available capacity refers to that the guarantee that light (wind) electricity can be provided in electric system peak time is contributed, and value is got over
It greatly, can be bigger to electric system offer capacity.If electric system has apparent installed capacity control month, light (wind) electric field phase
Answer the guarantee output i.e. available capacity of light (wind) electricity of electric system peak time in month.
Network load peak is generally present in evening peak, is counted through contributing to the period photoelectricity, photoelectricity under 95% fraction
It is 0 that the period, which contributes, i.e., without available capacity.
Wind power plant available capacity is related to wind power plant layout, position, scale etc., under 95% fraction of general single wind power plant
It is 0 to contribute, i.e., available capacity is 0, and electric field topology dispersion, quantity and scale increase with the wind, and the output under 95% fraction is small size
Increase, but available capacity accounts for installed capacity ratio 1% hereinafter, maximum can reach 4% or so.
(3) contain two-level index under intermittent index：Wind power plant demodulates peak rate and abandons wind rate with peak regulation, contributes continuous (interval)
Property.
1. wind power plant demodulates peak rate and abandons wind rate with peak regulation
It is to study wind-powered electricity generation in the wind power utilization of electric system low ebb period economical rationality, first studies wind-powered electricity generation when corresponding
The online capacity of phase abandons the relationship of wind rate with peak regulation.
It refers to installing with it after online capacity of the wind power plant in electric system low ebb period subtracts guarantee output to demodulate peak rate
The ratio of capacity, wind power plant demodulates peak rate and takes negative value, related to wind power plant layout, scale etc., and general wind power plant layout is overstepping the bounds of propriety
It dissipates, it is lower that wind power plant demodulates peak rate absolute value.In same scale wind-powered electricity generation, anti-tune peak rate absolute value is bigger, needs power train
Peak capacity of uniting is bigger.
Peak regulation abandon wind rate refer to power system load low ebb period wind power plant it is grid-connected abandon wind on the basis of, because of power grid tune
Peak requires the ratio for failing to account for design annual electricity generating capacity using part electricity.
The present invention with save for scope of statistics when, wind-powered electricity generation demodulates the general value of peak rate -0.45~-0.7.
2. continuous (interval) property of contributing
Output continuity refers to wind (light) electricity and contributes continuously more than sustainable degree of some output, is reflection wind (light) electric field
One of index of power producing characteristics.Output continuity parameter be primarily referred to as contributing in wind (light) electric field 1 year be more than it is a certain to making
Power, duration are more than total hourage of a certain given time.Total hourage is bigger, is more conducive to dispatching of power netwoks, passway for transmitting electricity
Economy is also better, and given contribute mainly considers that grid condition is set with given time.
Consider that wind-powered electricity generation economically network capacity amount is generally 60%, so statistics wind-powered electricity generation continuous capacity is more than installed capacity 60%
Sustainable degree.If wind-powered electricity generation a year and a day continuous capacity is more than or equal to the continuous capacity 1h of installed capacity 60% and the above total duration accounts for
Annual 8760h's reaches 13%, and what continuous capacity was more than or equal to that 5h total durations account for annual 8760h reaches 10%, and continuous capacity is big
Reach 7% in account for annual 8760h equal to 5h total durations, it is believed that wind power output continuity is preferable.
Output intermittence refers to wind (light) electricity and contributes continuously less than sustainable degree of some output, and reflection wind (light) electricity
One of the index of field power producing characteristics.In order to analyze influence of wind (light) electric field to power grid, can also count in wind (light) electric field 1 year
It contributes and is less than a certain given value, the duration is less than total hourage of a certain given time.Total hourage is bigger, to dispatching of power netwoks
Bigger with influence on system operation, passway for transmitting electricity economy is also poorer.The intermittent statistical result and output continuity statistical result of contributing it
With for 8760h, can must be contributed intermittent statistical result by output continuity statistical result.
(4) contain two-level index under fluctuation index：Wind (light) electricity output variability, disequilibrium rate.
1. variability of contributing
Wind (light) electric field output variability refers to the difference that wind (light) electric field is currently contributed and previous moment is contributed and accounts for wind (light) electricity
Stand installed capacity ratio and the corresponding frequency of occurrences, it reflect wind (light) electric field output fluctuation size and appearance frequency
Rate.Wind (light) electric field contributes to increase or reduce has certain difference to the aspect of the safety and stability of power grid influence.
Probability within wind farm group (or photovoltaic power station group) 10min output luffing ± 10% is 90% or more, it is believed that
Wind-powered electricity generation (photoelectricity) totally contributes variation steadily.
Probability within wind farm group (or photovoltaic power station group) 1min output luffing ± 10% is 99% or more, it is believed that wind
Electric (photoelectricity) totally contributes variation steadily.
2. disequilibrium rate
Temporally scale is divided into a year disequilibrium rate, moon disequilibrium rate, day disequilibrium rate to disequilibrium rate, accordingly reflect it is monthly go out
Power, average daily output and in a few days output fluctuating change size.
By seasonal variety in disequilibrium rate reflection year in year, each monthly average goes out fluctuation situation, for annual monthly output
With the ratio of maximum monthly output in year, value each moon output fluctuating change in 1, year is smaller.
In month disequilibrium rate reflection moon it is each it is per day go out fluctuation situation, daily go out for monthly daily output and maximum in the moon
The ratio of power, value each daily output fluctuating change in 1, the moon are smaller.
Day disequilibrium rate reflects in a few days output fluctuating change situation, for the average daily ratio contributed and contributed when in a few days maximum
Value, for value closer to 1, in a few days output fluctuating change is smaller.
If wind-powered electricity generation year disequilibrium rate is less than 0.65, it is believed that the monthly output fluctuating change of wind-powered electricity generation is larger；If month disequilibrium rate
When less than 0.3, it is believed that fluctuating change of daily contributing in the wind-powered electricity generation moon is big；When day disequilibrium rate is less than 0.4, it is believed that wind-powered electricity generation is in a few days
Output fluctuating change is big.Photoelectricity year, disequilibrium rate was less than 0.8, it is believed that the monthly output fluctuating change of photoelectricity is larger；The moon is unbalanced
When rate is less than 0.7, it is believed that fluctuating change of daily contributing in the photoelectricity moon is big；When day disequilibrium rate is less than 0.2, it is believed that photoelectricity day
Interior output fluctuating change is big.
S2, the membership function for determining each evaluation index
Consider that photovoltaic (or wind-powered electricity generation) generated output evaluating characteristics index is hierarchical management, therefore, overall score will be by
First class index accumulation is sought, and first class index is then sought by two-level index accumulation, and two-level index is then sought according to membership function.
Membership function is the influence degree to dependent variable for quantitatively characterizing independent variable, not using membership function evaluation
With the score of index.Index is divided into three types in this invention：A kind of bigger person's degree of membership of index value is more excellent, referred to as cumulative
Degree of membership；One kind is that the smaller person's degree of membership of index value is more excellent, referred to as decrescence degree of membership；One kind is that index value is subordinate to when placed in the middle
Spend more excellent, degree of membership referred to as placed in the middle.In conjunction with actual conditions, the cumulative degree of membership of the present invention, decrescence degree of membership, degree of membership placed in the middle difference
It is indicated with formula (1), (2), (3).
X in calculation formulaiFor independent variable, S1And S2For constant.From calculation formula as it can be seen that for formula (1), work as XiTend to S2
When, γ levels off to 1；For formula (2), work as XiTend to S1When, γ levels off to 1；For formula (3), work as XiTend to (S1+S2)/2
When, γ levels off to 1.According to the intension and statistical method of index, corresponding membership function is selected, and determines that each index is suitable
S1、S2Degree of membership can be calculated.
The calculating reality of each index degree of membership is just to determine the independent variable Xi of index, and specific calculating is as follows：
One) economically network capacity amount.The index is mainly used for determining the online capacity of photovoltaic (or wind-powered electricity generation) economical rationality.It is economical
Online capacity when being according to different online capacity grid-connected electric situation and corresponding transmission of electricity scale and the track investment abandoned using expense present worth
Method determines that expense present worth is smaller, and scheme is more excellent after being compared, and then economically network capacity amount X is determined after Integrated comparativei.According to upper
Network capacity flow characteristic selects membership function placed in the middle to calculate degree of membership, according to multiple regional economy online capacity achievement in research, herein
S1、S2Value is 0.35,0.80 respectively.
Two) economically network capacity amount corresponds to accumulation electricity ratio.The index mainly passes through output-fraction-electricity accumulation
Curve, check photovoltaic (wind-powered electricity generation) economically network capacity amount when accumulation electricity account for annual design generated energy ratio, ratio gets over great synthesis
Characteristic is better.The present invention checks that economically network capacity amount corresponds to accumulation electricity ratio to determine Xi, then select cumulative degree of membership meter
Calculate degree of membership；According to the corresponding accumulation electricity ratio achievement in research of economically network capacity amount (photovoltaic is in 55%, wind-powered electricity generation in 60%), herein
S1、S2Value is 0.75,1 respectively.
Three) electricity utilization rate.The index is mainly used for reflecting photovoltaic (or wind-powered electricity generation) by power grid consumption electricity ratio Xi, see public affairs
Formula (4).
In formula, XiFor electricity utilization rate, EOnlineFor electricity volume, EDesignTo design generated energy.XiGeneral higher overall characteristic is more
It is good, select cumulative membership function to calculate degree of membership, according to multiple regional electricity utilization rate achievements in research, in this S1、S2It takes respectively
Value is 70%, 1.
Four) design dependability is contributed with guarantee.The index is mainly used for the guarantor for reflecting electric system to photoelectricity, wind-powered electricity generation requirement
The corresponding output of card rate ensures to contribute bigger, and the electric power that can be provided to electric system is bigger.It is tired according to output-fraction-electricity
Product curve, when can check fraction 95%, photovoltaic (or wind-powered electricity generation) output size accounts for installed capacity ratio Xi。XiIt is general higher, it can
Think that randomness is poorer, selection decrescence membership function calculates degree of membership, contributes with guarantee according to multiple regional design dependabilities
Achievement in research, in this S1、S2Value is 0,3% respectively.
Five) available capacity.The index is mainly used for reflecting the guarantor that photovoltaic (or wind-powered electricity generation) electric system peak time can provide
Card is contributed, and value is bigger, and it is bigger can to provide capacity to electric system.By to electric system peak of power consumption period photovoltaic (or wind
Electricity) statistics of contributing, it obtains output size under 95% fraction and accounts for installed capacity ratio Xi, as available capacity.XiIt is general higher,
It is believed that randomness is poorer, selection decrescence membership function calculates degree of membership, according to multiple regional available capacity achievements in research,
This S1、S2Value is 0,5% respectively.
Six) wind power plant demodulates peak rate.The index is mainly used for reflecting wind-powered electricity generation in electric system low ebb period economical rationality
Wind power utilization.It is bigger to demodulate peak rate, needs electric system peak capacity smaller, it is believed that it is intermittent smaller, see formula (5).
In formula, Xi is that wind power plant demodulates peak rate, NOnlineIt is wind-powered electricity generation in the online capacity in electric system low ebb period, NEnsureFor
The guarantee in electric system low ebb period is contributed；NInstallationFor wind energy turbine set installed capacity.XiGeneral bigger, intermittence does not also protrude, and selects
It selects decrescence membership function and calculates degree of membership, peak rate achievement in research is demodulated according to multiple Wind-Electric Power Stations, in this S1、S2It takes respectively
Value is -0.4, -0.7.
Seven) output continuity.The index is mainly used for reflecting the sustainable degree that wind-powered electricity generation is more than some output, duration
Longer, output continuity is better, intermittent also poorer.It is more than by continuous capacity during counting wind-powered electricity generation a year and a day output
Equal to installed capacity 60% (wind-powered electricity generation economically network capacity amount), and total duration of the continuous capacity duration more than or equal to 1h, 5h, 10h accounts for
The ratio X of annual 8760hi, ratio XiBigger, continuity is better, also just intermittent poorer.Selection decrescence membership function calculates
Degree of membership, according to multiple Wind-Electric Power Stations output continuity achievements in research, in this S1、S2Value is 0,15% respectively, then will
The corresponding fuzzy set theory of 1h, 5h, 10h output continuity averagely obtains total output continuity degree of membership.Due to photovoltaic plant
Hair night in generated output daytime stops, intermittent more significant, so without evaluating the index when evaluation photoelectricity power producing characteristics.
Eight) output variability.The index is mainly used for the frequency of the fluctuation size and appearance that reflect that wind (light) electric field is contributed,
See formula (6).
In formula, yiFor wind (light) electric field output luffing；NIt is current to contributeIt currently contributes size for wind (light) electric field；NEve is contributedFor wind
(light) electric field eve output size；NInstallationFor wind (light) electric field installed capacity.By to wind-light-electricity a year and a day by 10min or spy
Timing section is counted by the output luffing and its corresponding frequencies of 1min output processes, and 10min (or 1min) output luffings hold in installation
Probability within amount ± 10% is higher, and fluctuation is smaller.Using the probability value as independent variable Xi, selection decrescence membership function meter
Degree of membership is calculated, according to multiple Wind-Electric Power Stations output variability achievements in research, in this S1、S2Value is 80%, 1 respectively.
Nine) disequilibrium rate.The index includes year disequilibrium rate XYear, i, moon disequilibrium rate XMonth, iOr day disequilibrium rate XDay, i, main
It is used to reflect the monthly output of wind (light) electricity, average daily output and in a few days output fluctuating change size, sees formula (7), (8), (9).
In formula, XYear, i、XMonth, i、XDay, iRespectively year, month, day disequilibrium rate；NEach moon monthly outputIt is big for the monthly output of each moon in year
It is small, NMaximum monthly output in yearFor maximum monthly output size of interior year, NMonthly daily outputFor size of daily contributing each day in the moon, NMaximum average daily output in monthFor the moon
Interior maximum average daily output size, NIt is average daily to contributeFor in a few days average output size, NIt contributes when in a few days maximumIt contributes when being in a few days maximum size.No
It is smaller to go out fluctuation closer to 1 for balanced rate.Selection decrescence membership function calculates separately three degrees of membership of the index, knot
Wind-light-electricity power producing characteristics are closed, in this SYear 1、SYear 2Value is 0.6,1, S respectivelyThe moon 1、SThe moon 2Value is 0.2,0.9, S respectivelyDay 1、SDay 2Point
Other value is 0.1,0.9, then, overall unevenness is obtained to the accumulation summation of year, month, day disequilibrium rate degree of membership using weighted average
Weighing apparatus rate degree of membership.
S3, the overall score for determining wind-light-electricity evaluating characteristics
On the basis of S2 describes all kinds of wind-light-electricity generated output evaluating characteristics indexs corresponding degree of membership computational methods, then provide
All kinds of first class index proportion and corresponding two-level index in overall assessment account for the weight of first class index, you can overall score is obtained,
See formula (10)~formula (14).
In formula, m, n, a, b are respectively that first class index overall characteristic, randomness, intermittence, fluctuation correspond to two-level appraisement and refer to
Mark sum；γIt is comprehensive, m、γWith n、γBetween, a、γWave, bRespectively first class index overall characteristic, randomness, intermittence, fluctuation correspond to two
Grade evaluation index is subordinate to angle value, μIt is comprehensive, m、μWith n、μBetween, a、μWave, bRespectively first class index overall characteristic, randomness, intermittence, wave
Dynamic property corresponds to two-level appraisement index and accounts for corresponding first class index weight；δIt is comprehensive、δAt random、δIntermittently、δFluctuationRespectively first class index overall characteristic,
Randomness, intermittence, fluctuation scoring.δcScoring is corresponded to for first class index c；μcIt accounts in overall first class index and weighs for first class index c
Weight；δ is overall score.
According to differences such as the region of evaluation object, scale, layouts, the part two-level index that may be selected under first class index carries out
Evaluation, the weight of two-level index is obtained by dividing equally the weight of first class index, and the weight of first class index is according to local sights electricity
The actual conditions such as resource, scale, layout are carried out to value, the content of main sides reevaluating, can be right when overall characteristic is paid attention in assessment
Overall characteristic first class index assigns higher value；Higher value can be assigned when randomness is paid attention in assessment to randomness first class index；When
Assessment can assign higher value when paying attention to fluctuation to fluctuation first class index；It can be to intermittent level-one when assessment payes attention to intermittent
Index assigns higher value.
Below wind-light-electricity is carried out so that Jiuquan wind power base installation scale 16000MW is by 10min wind power output processes as an example
Evaluating characteristics.
S1, overall characteristic index
1. economically network capacity amount, electricity utilization rate
Jiuquan wind power base difference online volume solutions Economic contrast is shown in Table 1.
1 Jiuquan wind power base difference online volume solutions Economic contrast table of table
(3300 yuan/kW of Transmission Investment, 1000 yuan/t of mark coal price lattice)
When can be seen that grid connection capacity from table 1 and Fig. 3 and accounting for installed capacity ratio 55%, grid connection capacity 8800MW, design
310.44 hundred million kWh of electricity volume accounts for design generated energy ratio up to 90.1%, and program expense present worth is minimum.Each scheme is taken
It is mainly influenced by mark coal price lattice and the investment of transmission line of electricity per kilowatt with present worth.Economic grid connection capacity sensitivity analysis achievement is shown in
Table 2.
2 economic grid connection capacity sensitivity analysis outcome table of table
Gansu Province Jiuquan region wind-resources belong to two classes area, and wind-powered electricity generation mark post rate for incorporation into the power network is 0.45 yuan/kWh.It is different single
Under the cost per kw level of position, wind power plant capital financial internal rate of return (FIRR) reaches when 8% or 10% corresponding wind power plant using small
When number be shown in Table 3.
The different cost per kilowatts of table 3 are horizontal and capital income corresponds to wind power plant guarantee and utilizes hourage table
By table 2 and table 3 it is found that when wind power plant per kilowatt static investment is 7000 yuan/kW-8000 members/kW, capital
Financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is 8%-10%, and wind-powered electricity generation is 1918h-2265h using hourage.From wind-resources utilization rate, Transmission Corridor
Transmission Investment, wind power plant unit price and capital income etc. consider, Jiuquan wind power base economically network capacity amount ratio
Example is 60% or so.
By the membership function placed in the middle of economically net Capacity Selection, it is 0.93 to calculate degree of membership.
By the cumulative membership function that electricity utilization rate selects, electricity utilization rate corresponds to when calculating economically network capacity amount 60%
Degree of membership be 0.76.
2. economically network capacity amount corresponds to accumulation electricity ratio
For Jiuquan wind power base economically net capacity ratio 60% or so, corresponding accumulation electricity accounts for annual design generated energy ratio
Example is 0.927, and the cumulative membership function of accumulation electricity ratio selection is corresponded in economically network capacity amount, calculates degree of membership and is
0.708。
S2, randomness, intermittence, fluctuation index
(1) randomness
1. design dependability is contributed with guarantee
Jiuquan wind power base design dependability is shown in Table 4 with output statistical result is ensured, the guarantee under fraction 95% is contributed
It is 1% to account for installed capacity ratio.
By design dependability with ensure the decrescence membership function of selection of contributing, it is 0.67 to calculate degree of membership.
4 Jiuquan wind power base design dependability of table is counted with output is ensured
| Area | Installation scale (MW) | Fraction (%) | Ensure to contribute (MW) |
| Jiuquan wind power base | 16000 | 95 | 168 |
2. available capacity
Jiuquan wind power base available capacity statistical result is shown in Table 5, and Jiuquan wind power base is in evening peak period fraction 95%
Under guarantee output account for installed capacity ratio be 0.3%.
By the decrescence membership function that available capacity selects, it is 0.4 to calculate degree of membership.
5 Jiuquan wind power base available capacity statistics of table
(control month is December, and peak period is 18. -20 points)
Unit：MW
(2) intermittent
1. wind power plant demodulates peak rate
It is -0.55 that Jiuquan base wind-powered electricity generation, which demodulates peak rate,.
The decrescence membership function of peak rate selection is demodulated by wind power plant, it is 0.50 to calculate degree of membership.
2. continuity of contributing
Continuous capacity accounts for 8760h ratios more than some continuous hourage of output and is shown in Table 6 in Jiuquan wind power base a year and a day, by
This can be seen that Jiuquan wind power base wind-powered electricity generation continuous capacity and is more than or equal to installed capacity 60%, and continuous capacity is small more than or equal to 1
When, 5 hours, 10 hours total hours account for annual 8760h ratios be 0.14,0.11,0.08.
By the decrescence membership function that output continuity selects, it is 0.27 to calculate degree of membership.
6 Jiuquan wind power base output continuity statistical result of table
(3) fluctuation
1. variability of contributing
Jiuquan wind power base installation scale 16000MW wind-powered electricity generations count knot by the output variability of 10min a year and a day output processes
Fruit is shown in Table 7, and by Biao Ke get, Jiuquan wind power base wind-powered electricity generation is by corresponding ± 10% installed capacity of output luffing of 10min output processes
Output variability in range is 94% or more.
By the decrescence membership function that output variability selects, it is 0.30 to calculate degree of membership.
Output variability statistical result of the 7 Jiuquan wind power base of table by 10min output processes
| Output accounts for installed capacity ratio (%) | Output variability (%) |
| (-55,-60] | 0.00 |
| (-50,-55] | 0.00 |
| (-45,50] | 0.01 |
| (-40,-45] | 0.02 |
| (-35,-40] | 0.03 |
| (-30,-35] | 0.05 |
| (-25,-30] | 0.10 |
| (-20,-25] | 0.17 |
| (-15,-20] | 0.49 |
| (-10,-15] | 1.28 |
| (-5,-10] | 6.62 |
| (0,-5] | 44.52 |
| (0,5] | 38.02 |
| (5,10] | 5.82 |
| (10,15] | 1.77 |
| (15,20] | 0.59 |
| (20,25] | 0.28 |
| (25,30] | 0.13 |
| (30,35] | 0.05 |
| (35,40] | 0.01 |
| (40,45] | 0.01 |
| (45,50] | 0.01 |
| (50,55] | 0.00 |
| (55,60] | 0.00 |
2. disequilibrium rate
Wind power base wind-powered electricity generation year disequilibrium rate in Jiuquan is 0.69；Month disequilibrium rate statistical result is shown in Fig. 4, the wind power base 2
Month, May~September moon disequilibrium rate it is smaller, but be all higher than 0.3, the moon disequilibrium rate mean value be 0.3575；Day disequilibrium rate statistics knot
Fruit is shown in Table 8, and the monthly day disequilibrium rate mean value of the wind power base is between 0.40~0.55, in addition to January, March, April, November,
His, in a few days output total ripple was relatively large each moon, day disequilibrium rate mean value be 0.4616.
By the decrescence membership function that disequilibrium rate selects, three degrees of membership of corresponding date are calculated, then by three
Degree of membership is accumulated by equal weight, and the degree of membership that disequilibrium rate is calculated is 0.70.
8 Jiuquan wind power base day disequilibrium rate statistical result of table
To in the wind power base wind power output evaluating characteristics of Jiuquan, overall characteristic first class index chooses economically network capacity amount, warp
Ji online capacity corresponds to accumulation electricity ratio, electricity utilization rate two-level index as evaluation overall characteristic index；Randomness level-one
Selecting index ensures output, available capacity two-level index as evaluation randomness index；Intermittent first class index, which is chosen, demodulates peak
Rate, output continuity two-level index are as the intermittent index of evaluation；Fluctuation first class index chooses output variability, disequilibrium rate two
Grade index is as evaluation fluctuation index.
If pay attention to overall characteristic when evaluation, overall characteristic, randomness, intermittence, fluctuation first class index weight difference
It is 0.55,0.15,0.15,0.15, the two-level index mean allocation weight under each first class index, final scoring at this time：
δIt is comprehensive=0.89 × 0.183+0.76 × 0.183+0.708 × 0.183=0.43
δAt random=0.67 × 0.075+0.40 × 0.075=0.08
δIntermittently=0.50 × 0.075+0.27 × 0.075=0.058
δFluctuation=0.3 × 0.075+0.70 × 0.075=0.075
δ=0.43+0.08+0.058+0.075=0.643
If pay attention to fluctuation when evaluation, overall characteristic, randomness, intermittence, fluctuation first class index weight are respectively
0.2,0.2,0.2,0.4, the two-level index mean allocation weight under each first class index, final scoring at this time：
δIt is comprehensive=0.89 × 0.067+0.76 × 0.067+0.708 × 0.067=0.157
δAt random=0.67 × 0.1+0.40 × 0.1=0.11
δIntermittently=0.50 × 0.1+0.27 × 0.1=0.077
δFluctuation=0.3 × 0.2+0.7 × 0.2=0.20
δ=0.157+0.11+0.077+0.20=0.544
It can be seen that when focusing on independent characteristic (fluctuation) when evaluation, the evaluation result overall score is relatively low.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation method, which is characterized in that following assessment indicator system is used, it is described
System includes four class first class index, and each first class index respectively contains several two-level index, and two-stage index collectively forms the evaluation
Index system；
Wherein, first class index is：Overall characteristic index, randomness index, intermittent index, fluctuation index；Overall characteristic refers to
Mark under two-level index be：Economically network capacity amount, economically network capacity amount correspond to accumulation electricity ratio, electricity utilization rate；Randomness
Two-level index under index is：Design dependability and guarantee output, available capacity；Two-level index under intermittent index is：Wind
Electric field demodulates peak rate and abandons wind rate, output continuity with peak regulation；Two-level index under fluctuation index is：Wind-light-electricity output variability,
Disequilibrium rate；
Each two-level index is sought respectively, the weight of each first class index, two-level index is then determined successively, shared by each index
Weight seek overall score.
2. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 1 or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation method, which is characterized in that each two level
Index is sought to seek index degree of membership γ according to membership function, wherein numerical value more bigger more excellent index using cumulative
Degree of membership formula (1) is sought, and the smaller more excellent index of numerical value is sought using decrescence degree of membership formula (2), and the more placed in the middle numerical value the more excellent
Index sought using degree of membership formula (3) placed in the middle,
In formula, XiFor index independent variable, S1And S2For constant；
The overall score is sought using formula (10)~formula (14),
In formula, m, n, a, b are respectively that each first class index corresponds to two-level appraisement index sum；γ indicates that first class index corresponds to two level and refers to
Target is subordinate to angle value, and μ indicates that first class index corresponds to two-level appraisement index and accounts for corresponding first class index weight；δIt is comprehensive、δAt random、δIntermittently、δFluctuation
Respectively each first class index scoring；δcScoring is corresponded to for first class index c；μcWeight in overall first class index is accounted for for first class index c；δ
For overall score.
3. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 2 or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation method, which is characterized in that it is described economically
The independent variable X of network capacity figureofmeritiThe grid-connected electric situation and corresponding of abandoning when being online capacity more different by using expense present value method
Transmission of electricity scale and track investment select the smaller scheme of expense present worth to determine, S1、S2Value is 0.35,0.8 respectively；
The economically network capacity amount corresponds to the independent variable X of accumulation electricity ratio indexiFor the corresponding accumulation electricity of economically network capacity amount
Account for annual design annual electricity generating capacity ratio, by checking that output-fraction-electricity accumulation curve obtains, S1、S2Value is respectively
0.75、1；
The independent variable X of the electricity utilization rate indexiIt is designed after annual electricity generating capacity deduction abandons electricity for light wind-powered electricity generation and electricity is dissolved by power grid
Ratio is calculated using formula (4),
In formula, XiFor electricity utilization rate, EOnlineFor electricity volume, EDesignTo design generated energy；Its S1、S2Value is 70%, 1 respectively；
The design dependability and the independent variable X for ensureing output indexiInstallation is accounted for for 95% time of fraction wind power output size to hold
The ratio of amount, by checking that output-fraction-electricity accumulation curve obtains, S1、S2Value is 0,3% respectively；
The available capacity is that output size accounts for installed capacity ratio under 95% fraction of electric system peak period, by electricity
Force system peak of power consumption period light wind power output counts to obtain；Its S1、S2Value is 0,5% respectively；
The scene electric field demodulates the independent variable X of peak rateiIt is calculated using formula (5)
In formula, XiPeak rate, N are demodulated for honourable electric fieldOnlineIt is wind-light-electricity in the online capacity in electric system low ebb period, NEnsureFor
The guarantee in electric system low ebb period is contributed；NInstallationFor honourable electric field installed capacity；Its S1、S2Value is -0.4, -0.7 respectively；
The successional independent variable X that contributesiContinuous capacity is more than or equal to economically network capacity during contributing for wind-powered electricity generation a year and a day
Amount, and total duration of the continuous capacity duration more than or equal to 1h, 5h, 10h accounts for the ratio of annual 8760h, S1、S2Equal value respectively
It is 0,15%；
The independent variable X of the output luffingiIt is calculated using formula (6),
In formula, yiFor honourable electric field output luffing；NIt is current to contributeIt currently contributes size for honourable electric field；NEve is contributedIt is previous for honourable electric field
Carve power size；NInstallationFor honourable electric field installed capacity；Frequency statistics is carried out to output luffing again, and then obtains output variability；Its
S1、S2Value is 80%, 1 respectively；
The disequilibrium rate includes year disequilibrium rate XYear, i, moon disequilibrium rate XMonth, iOr day disequilibrium rate XDay, i, respectively according to formula
(7), (8), (9) calculate,
SYear 1、SYear 2Value is 0.6,1, S respectivelyThe moon 1、SThe moon 2Value is 0.2,0.9, S respectivelyDay 1、SDay 2Value is 0.1,0.9 respectively；It adopts
Overall disequilibrium rate degree of membership is obtained to the accumulation summation of year, month, day disequilibrium rate degree of membership with weighted average.
4. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 1 or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation method, which is characterized in that the power generation is
When photoelectricity, the output continuity under intermittent index is not evaluated.
5. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 1 or photovoltaic power generation power producing characteristics evaluation method, which is characterized in that the weight
The method of determination, which is that the weight of first class index is given according to the attention degree of evaluation, distributes, and the weighted average of two-level index distributes its institute
The first class index weight of category.
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