CN108364136A - A kind of shortage of water resources risk analysis method and system based on evidential reasoning - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the acquisitions of data and recording technique field, disclose a kind of shortage of water resources risk analysis method and system based on evidential reasoning, and the shortage of water resources risk analysis method based on evidential reasoning includes：General objective is decomposed, the hierarchical structure model of general objective is established；The attribute value of computing unit；The risk of computing unit is determined with Evidential reasoning algorithm.The method that the present invention utilizes D S evidential reasonings, the shortage of water resources risk in multiple areas is evaluated, the sequence of each department shortage of water resources risk size is obtained, is connect with actual conditions and shows that carrying out evaluation to the shortage of water resources risk of each department using evidence theory has validity and application value together.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the acquisition of data and recording technique field more particularly to a kind of water resource based on evidential reasoning are short
Lack risk analysis method and system.
Background technology
Currently, the prior art commonly used in the trade is such：Shortage of water resources risk depends primarily on water resource system
Whether supply amount and demand can reach balance.Water resource supply amount by precipitation, production confluence, water storage project, transport path etc. because
The influence of element；And demand is influenced by factors such as water saving level, the consciousnesss of saving water of water user, influences shortage of water resources risk
Factor is very more, and the acquisition of much information has certain uncertainty, is one typical with uncertain, endless
The decision-making problem of multi-objective of standby information.Regional Water Shortage Risk assay is the important component of water resources management.
Domestic and international many scholars have carried out the research in this field, the definition in shortage of water resources risk that focuses mostly on, risk sources, risk
Evaluation and management etc..Shortage of water resources risk performance indicator, it is short to the water resource in region using fuzzy synthetic appraisement method
Scarce risk is evaluated；It is with Information Diffusion Theory that the evaluation index of structure is discrete, fuzzy evaluating matrix is established to west
Peace city's shortage of water resources risk is evaluated；The weight of risk indicator is determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and establishes water supply risk integrative
Assessment models；Comprehensive Assessment of Water Shortage Risk system is established with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy mathematics degree of membership evaluation assessment, it is right
The shortage of water resources risk of Hubei Han River eco economic region is evaluated.Though these methods can preferably processing region water resource it is short
The ambiguity in risk assessment is lacked, but the uncertainty in risk cannot be described accurately.
In conclusion problem of the existing technology is：Shortage of water resources is determined by two aspect of supply and demand, by rainfall intensity
And its influence of the factors such as spatial and temporal distributions, land surface condition, water resource engineering, operation scheduling of water resources and mankind's activity, water money
There is a large amount of uncertain factor during the system evolution of source, cause the index for measuring shortage of water resources feature of risk as flowed
Amount-frequency relation, water deficit-loss relationship etc. all has uncertainty.Uncertainty in risk cannot be retouched accurately
It states.
Solve the difficulty and meaning of above-mentioned technical problem：Overcome uncertainty many in shortage of water resources risk assessment,
Accurate assessment is compared to shortage of water resources risk, can improve present in risk analysis to risk factors consider it is less and
Not reasonable situation provides scientific guidance to water resource system security decision.Shortage of water resources risk from natural water circulation,
Various aspects in mankind's water delivery and water utilizing process, in practice decision process, the source of risk factors and quantity is not all
Disconnected to increase, content is also constantly changing, under the conditions of the resources such as time, cost and technology are limited, it is impossible to risky to institute
Factor all takes respective risk control measure, and the shapes such as possibility and the influence degree of risk factors can only be assessed with suitable method
Formula judges its risk class, takes respective risk workaround successively according to the order of importance and emergency, avoids or reduces risk damage as possible.
Invention content
In view of the problems of the existing technology, the shortage of water resources risk based on evidential reasoning that the present invention provides a kind of point
Analyse method and system.
The invention is realized in this way a kind of shortage of water resources risk analysis method based on evidential reasoning, described to be based on
The shortage of water resources risk analysis method of evidential reasoning includes：General objective is decomposed, the hierarchical structure mould of general objective is established
Type；The attribute value of computing unit；The risk of computing unit is determined with Evidential reasoning algorithm.
Further, the general objective G：Each calculating subregion to be evaluated is A={ A1, A2..., An}；
Sub-goal set U={ ui| i=1,2 ..., m }, u1：Urban domestic water amount notch minimum, target u2：Agricultural is used
Water notch minimum, u3：Industrial water consumption notch minimum, u4：Eco-environmental Water Demand notch is minimum；It is opposite between sub-goal
Weight is wjW is calculated using AHP methods in (j=1,2 ..., m)j；
Each corresponding attribute of sub-goal is set as ail(i=1,2 ..., 4, l=1,2,3) indicates three kinds of configuration sides respectively
The water deficit of urban domestic water, agricultural water, industrial water and Eco-environmental Water Consumption, relative weighting w under caseil；
Expert's set representations are DML(L=1,2 ..., r), the weight of expert is obtained with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to ensure to evaluate
Science and objectivity；
H={ Hk| k=1,2 ..., 5 }={ low-risk, compared with low-risk, risk, high risk, high risk } be expert's
Evaluation approach collection, as identification framework, the evaluation of estimate of comment is determined H with ratio ruler method, takes P (H)={ p (H1), p (H2), p
(H3), p (H4), p (H5)={ 0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9 }；
Expert is to each sub-goal uiAttribute ailProvide confidence level β respectively on evaluation approach Hilk(i=1,2 ..., n,
L=1,2,3, k=1,2 ..., 5, meet 0≤βilk≤ 1,Hk(βilk) meaning be attribute ailAbout comment
HkConfidence level be βilk, HΘ(βilk) indicate attribute ailUnknown degree be βilk。
Further, the shortage of water resources risk analysis method based on evidential reasoning is according to the confidence of each attribute of expert
Degree, establishes the basic reliability distribution function of each attribute；The Mass functions of each attribute are closed by D-S combining evidences formal style
At operation, the Mass functions of sub-goal are obtained, the evaluation of estimate that each sub-goal determines is calculated, converts problem to certainty and determines
Question and answer on politics is inscribed；Trap queuing is carried out to the risk of each department using weighting method.
Further comprise：
Step 1 determines the Mass functions of each attribute, confidence level of each attribute provided according to expert on evaluation approach H
βilkWith the relative weighting w of each attributeil, calculate the Mass functions m of attributeLl(Hk|ail), L=1,2,3, l=1,2,3, k=
1,2,3,4, i=1,2,3,4；u1Properties { a of sub-goal11, a12, a13In a11For determinant attribute, a12, a13For non-key category
Property；
To determinant attribute aiqConstruct Mass functions mLl(Hk|aiq)=α βilk,In formula, factor alpha is discount factor, α value ranges be (0,1], take α=
0.9。mLl(HΘ|aiq) indicate to the unknown degree of upper level target support；
For non-key attribute aifCalculating its Mass function is：mLl(Hk|aif)=(wif/wiq)αβilk,Wherein, wifFor the weight of non-key attribute, wiqFor the weight of determinant attribute；
Step 2 synthesizes the Mass functions of each attribute, obtains every expert about son using D-S combining evidences formula
Target uiMass functions mL(Hk|ui), mL(HΘ|ui), L=1,2,3, utilizing combining evidences formula to each expert about specific item
Mark uiMass functions synthesized, to expertise assemble, obtain about sub-goal uiNew Mass function m (Hk|ui), m
(HΘ|ui)；
Step 3 is calculated about each scheme in sub-goal uiOn certainty evaluation value Si：
Problem translates into ascertaining type decision problem；
The final appraisal results of each scheme can be obtained using weighting method according to the weight of each evaluation of estimate for step 4.
KiFor each evaluation of estimate SiWeight.
Another object of the present invention is to provide the shortage of water resources risk analyses based on evidential reasoning described in a kind of realize
The information data processing terminal of method.
Another object of the present invention is to provide a kind of shortage of water resources risk analysis sides based on evidential reasoning
The shortage of water resources risk analysis system based on evidential reasoning of method, the shortage of water resources risk analysis based on evidential reasoning
System includes：
Model construction module establishes the hierarchical structure model of general objective for being decomposed to general objective；
Computing module gives evaluation appropriate for the attribute value to each computing unit；
Evaluation module, for being evaluated the risk of computing unit with Evidential reasoning algorithm.
Further, the model construction module includes：General objective layer unit, sub-goal layer unit, sub- index layer unit.
Another object of the present invention is to provide the shortage of water resources risk analyses based on evidential reasoning described in a kind of realize
The information data processing terminal of system.
In conclusion advantages of the present invention and good effect are：D-S evidence theory can be efficiently solved by uncertainty
The evaluation result inaccuracy problem brought.The present invention is based on D-S evidence theory using Pingxiang City as research object, according to different special
The evaluation opinion of family, synthesizes unascertained information by Dempster compositional rules, finally asks unascertained decision
Topic is converted into decision making under certainty problem, to the water of each subregion in its area under one's jurisdiction (Anyuan county, Xiangdong District, Luxi County, Shangli County, Lianhua County)
Shortage of resources risk is evaluated, and can pointedly propose regulation and control scheme.Comprehensive Assessment of Water Shortage Risk is a kind of complicated
Decision-making problem of multi-objective, the maximum difficulty of decision are to reflect that the quantization of the attribute value of target, the present invention utilize D-S evidential reasonings
Method, the shortage of water resources risk in multiple areas is evaluated, the row of each department shortage of water resources risk size is obtained
Sequence connects with actual conditions and shows that carrying out evaluation to the shortage of water resources risk of each department using evidence theory has validity together
And application value.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the shortage of water resources risk analysis method flow chart provided in an embodiment of the present invention based on evidential reasoning.
Fig. 2 is the shortage of water resources risk analysis system structural representation provided in an embodiment of the present invention based on evidential reasoning
Figure；
In figure：1, model construction module；1-1, general objective layer unit；1-2, sub-goal layer unit；1-3, sub- indicator layer list
Member；2, computing module；3, evaluation module.
Fig. 3 is shortage of water resources risk evaluation model schematic diagram provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is the hierarchical structure schematic diagram of target provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
In order to make the purpose , technical scheme and advantage of the present invention be clearer, with reference to embodiments, to the present invention
It is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present invention, it is not used to
Limit the present invention.
Under the conditions of the resources such as time, cost and technology are limited, it is impossible to all take corresponding wind to all risk factors
Dangerous control measure can only assess the forms such as possibility and the influence degree of risk factors with suitable method, judge its risk etc.
Grade, respective risk workaround is taken according to the order of importance and emergency successively, avoids or reduces risk damage as possible.
As shown in Figure 1, the shortage of water resources risk analysis method provided in an embodiment of the present invention based on evidential reasoning includes
Following steps：
S101：General objective is decomposed, the hierarchical structure model of general objective is established；
S102：The attribute value of each computing unit gives evaluation appropriate；
S103：The risk of computing unit is evaluated with Evidential reasoning algorithm.
As shown in Fig. 2, the shortage of water resources risk analysis system provided in an embodiment of the present invention based on evidential reasoning includes：
Model construction module 1 establishes the hierarchical structure model of general objective for being decomposed to general objective.
Computing module 2 gives evaluation appropriate for the attribute value to each computing unit.
Evaluation module 3, for being evaluated the risk of computing unit with Evidential reasoning algorithm.
Model construction module 1 includes：General objective layer unit 1-1, sub-goal layer unit 1-2, sub- index layer unit 1-3.
Sub- index is also known as attribute, for measuring sub-goal.
The application principle of the present invention is further described with reference to specific embodiment.
1D-S evidence theory modeling process
1.1 regional water resources shortage evaluation indexes
D-S evidence theory is a kind of reasoning method under uncertainty, can preferably be handled with fuzzy and uncertain information
Composition problem, and prior probability, the inference form do not need with known proposition are simple, therefore obtain extensive
Using.
For multiobjective decision-making, generally target number should be reduced to the greatest extent, to mutually rushing under the premise of meeting decision needs
Prominent target should try to be coordinated, and total principle, which is partial objectives for, will obey general objective.Decision objective is divided into urban domestic water
Amount, Water Consumption in Agriculture, industrial water consumption, Eco-environmental Water Demand.General objective, specific item are divided by large system decomposing coordination principle
Three layers of mark and sub- index, as shown in Figure 3.
General objective (G)：Pingxiang City respectively calculates the size of subregion shortage of water resources risk, and each calculating subregion to be evaluated is A
={ A1, A2..., An}。
Sub-goal set U={ ui| i=1,2 ..., m }, u1：Urban domestic water amount notch minimum, target u2：Agricultural is used
Water notch minimum, u3：Industrial water consumption notch minimum, u4：Eco-environmental Water Demand notch is minimum.It is opposite between sub-goal
Weight is wjW is calculated using AHP methods in (j=1,2 ..., m)j。
Each corresponding attribute of sub-goal is set as ail(i=1,2 ..., 4, l=1,2,3) indicates three kinds of configuration sides respectively
The water deficit of urban domestic water, agricultural water, industrial water and Eco-environmental Water Consumption, relative weighting w under caseil。
Expert's set representations are DML(L=1,2 ..., r), from professional skill, working experience and educational background etc., with level
Analytic approach obtains the weight of expert, to ensure the science and objectivity of evaluation.
H={ Hk| k=1,2 ..., 5 }={ low-risk, compared with low-risk, risk, high risk, high risk } be expert's
Evaluation approach collection, as identification framework, the evaluation of estimate of comment is determined H with ratio ruler method, takes P (H)={ p in the present invention
(H1), p (H2), p (H3), p (H4), p (H5)={ 0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9 }.
Expert is according to the accumulation of the knowledge and experience of oneself, to each sub-goal u in schemeiAttribute ailIn evaluation approach
Confidence level β is provided on H respectivelyilk(i=1,2 ..., m, l=1,2,3, k=1,2 ..., 5) meets 0≤βilk≤ 1,Hk(βilk) meaning be attribute ailAbout comment HkConfidence level be βilk, HΘ(βilk) indicate attribute ail's
Unknown degree is βilk。
The Evidence Combination Methods algorithm of 1.2 Pingxiang City shortage of water resources risk measurement
According to the confidence level for each attribute that expert provides, the basic reliability distribution function of each attribute, i.e. Mass letters are established
Number, then is carried out synthesizing operation, obtains the Mass letters of sub-goal by D-S combining evidences formal style to the Mass functions of each attribute
Number.On this basis, the evaluation of estimate that each sub-goal determines is calculated, converts problem to decision making under certainty problem, last profit
Trap queuing is carried out to the risk of each department with weighting method, steps are as follows for specific algorithm：
Step 1 determines the Mass functions of each attribute.Confidence level of each attribute provided according to expert on evaluation approach H
βilkWith the relative weighting w of each attributeil, calculate the Mass functions m of attributeLl(Hk|ail), L=1,2,3, l=1,2,3, k=
1,2,3,4, i=1,2,3,4.Such as u in Fig. 21Properties { a of sub-goal11, a12, a13In a11For determinant attribute, a12, a13It is non-
Determinant attribute.
To determinant attribute aiqConstruct Mass functions mLl(Hk|aiq)=α βilk,In formula, factor alpha is discount factor, reflects the determinant attribute as evidence
To what extent with confidence level βilkSupport upper level sub-goal, α value ranges be (0,1], take α=0.9 here.mLl(HΘ|
aiq) indicate to the unknown degree of upper level target support.
For non-key attribute aifCalculating its Mass function is：mLl(Hk|aif)=(wif/wiq)αβilk,Wherein, wifFor the weight of non-key attribute, wiqFor the weight of determinant attribute.
Step 2 utilizes D-S combining evidences formula, is synthesized to the Mass functions of each attribute under scheme, obtains everybody specially
Family is about sub-goal uiMass functions mL(Hk|ui), mL(HΘ|ui), L=1,2,3, on this basis, utilizing combining evidences
Formula is to each expert about sub-goal uiMass functions synthesized, i.e., expertise is assembled, is obtained about son
Target uiNew Mass function m (Hk|ui), m (HΘ|ui)；
Step 3 is calculated about each scheme in sub-goal uiOn " certainty " evaluation of estimate Si：
Problem translates into ascertaining type decision problem；
The final appraisal results of each scheme can be obtained using weighting method for step 4.
The 1.3 Pingxiang City Comprehensive Assessment of Water Shortage Risk based on D-S theories
Research area's Pingxiang City belongs to duckweed water water system, is Dongting Lake System Xiang River level-one tributary.Pingxiang City is divided into 5 meters
Point counting area：Anyuan District, Xiangdong District, Luxi County, Shangli County, Lianhua County, i.e. A={ A1, A2, A3, A4, A5).Invite three experts couple 5
The shortage of water resources risk of a subregion the year two thousand twenty is evaluated, and the weight of three experts is wDM={ wDM1, wDM2, wDM3}={ 0.4,
0.3,0.3 }.
The relative weighting w of sub-goal is calculated by AHP methods firstjWith sub- index weights wil：Urban domestic water weight w1
=0.4, Water Consumption in Agriculture w2=0.2, industrial water consumption w3=0.3, Eco-environmental Water Demand w3=0.1；Sub- index wi1=0.4,
wi2=0.35, wi3=0.25, i=1,2,3,4.
Please expert according to knowledge, experience and personal preference, provide confidence level of each attribute in opinion rating, table 1 is son
Target u1Evaluation information (u as space is limited,2, u3, u4Evaluation information table it is unlisted).Sub-goal is obtained by composition rule
Collect Mass functions of the U about expert, table 2 is after first time combining evidences about sub-goal u1Evaluation information, i.e. Mass
Function (u2、u3、u4、u5Evaluation information it is unlisted).Using combining evidences formula to expert about each sub-goal composite result again
Single sintering, this process are the processes assembled to expertise, are obtained about sub-goal uiNew Mass functions (table
3)。
Then the formula in step 3 is utilized to calculate about each department AiIn sub-goal uiOn " certainty " evaluation of estimate Si, such as
Shown in table 4.Finally according to the weight of each sub-goal and comprehensive evaluation value Si, the evaluation about general objective is obtained using weighting method
Value.
The 2 Comprehensive Assessment of Water Shortage Risk interpretations of result based on D-S theories
As can be seen from Table 5, Pingxiang City each department the year two thousand twenty shortage of water resources risk size is ordered as：Anyuan District>On
Li Xian>Luxi County>Xiangdong District>Lianhua County, wherein Xiangdong District and Luxi County the year two thousand twenty shortage of water resources risk are not much different, peace
The shortage of water resources greatest risk of source region, the minimum of Lianhua County.
Table 1 is about sub-goal u1Evaluation information
2 sub-goal u of table1New evaluation of estimate (results of first time combining evidences)
3 sub-goal u of tableiNew evaluation of estimate (second of combining evidences result)
4 sub-goal u of tableiComprehensive evaluation value
The evaluation of estimate of 5 Pingxiang City each department shortage of water resources risk of table
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, all essences in the present invention
All any modification, equivalent and improvement etc., should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention made by within refreshing and principle.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of shortage of water resources risk analysis method based on evidential reasoning, which is characterized in that described based on evidential reasoning
Shortage of water resources risk analysis method includes：General objective is decomposed, the hierarchical structure model of general objective is established；Computing unit
Attribute value；The risk of computing unit is determined with Evidential reasoning algorithm.
2. the shortage of water resources risk analysis method based on evidential reasoning as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that described total
Target G：Each calculating subregion to be evaluated is A={ A1, A2..., An}；
Sub-goal set U={ ui| i=1,2 ..., m }, u1：Urban domestic water amount notch minimum, target u2：Water Consumption in Agriculture
Notch minimum, u3：Industrial water consumption notch minimum, u4：Eco-environmental Water Demand notch is minimum；Relative weighting between sub-goal
For wjW is calculated using AHP methods in (j=1,2 ..., m)j；
Each corresponding attribute of sub-goal is set as ail(i=1,2 ..., 4, l=1,2,3) is indicated under three kinds of allocation plans respectively
The water deficit of urban domestic water, agricultural water, industrial water and Eco-environmental Water Consumption, relative weighting wil；
Expert's set representations are DML(L=1,2 ..., r), the weight of expert is obtained with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to ensure the science of evaluation
Property and objectivity；
H={ Hk| k=1,2 ..., 5 }={ low-risk, compared with low-risk, risk, high risk, high risk } be expert comment
Grade collection, as identification framework, the evaluation of estimate of comment is determined H with ratio ruler method, takes P（H）={ p (H1), p (H2), p (H3), p
(H4), p (H5)={ 0.1,0.3,0.5,0.7,0.9 }；
Expert is to each sub-goal uiAttribute ailProvide confidence level β respectively on evaluation approach Hilk(i=1,2 ..., m, l=
1,2,3, k=1,2 ..., 5), meet 0≤βilk≤ 1,Hk(βilk) meaning be attribute ailAbout comment Hk
Confidence level be βilk, HΘ(βilk) indicate attribute ailUnknown degree be βilk。
3. the shortage of water resources risk analysis method based on evidential reasoning as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the base
In evidential reasoning shortage of water resources risk analysis method according to the confidence level of each attribute of expert, establishing the basic of each attribute can
Brief inference function；The Mass functions of each attribute are carried out synthesizing operation by D-S combining evidences formal style, obtain sub-goal
Mass functions are calculated the evaluation of estimate that each sub-goal determines, convert problem to decision making under certainty problem；Utilize weighting method pair
The risk of each department carries out trap queuing.
4. the shortage of water resources risk analysis method based on evidential reasoning as claimed in claim 3, which is characterized in that further
Including：
Step 1 determines the Mass functions of each attribute, confidence level β of each attribute provided according to expert on evaluation approach Hilk
With the relative weighting w of each attributeil, calculate the Mass functions m of attributeLl(Hk|ail), L=1,2,3, l=1,2,3, k=1,2,
3,4, i=1,2,3,4；u1Properties { a of sub-goal11, a12, a13In a11For determinant attribute, a12, a13For non-key attribute；
To determinant attribute aiqConstruct Mass functions mLl(Hk|aiq)=α βilk,
In formula, factor alpha is discount factor, α value ranges be (0,1], take α=0.9；mLl(HΘ|aiq) indicate to support upper level target
The unknown degree of degree；
For non-key attribute aifCalculating its Mass function is：mLl(Jk|aif)=(wif/wiq)αβilk,Wherein, wifFor the weight of non-key attribute, wiqFor the weight of determinant attribute；
Step 2 synthesizes the Mass functions of each attribute, obtains every expert about sub-goal u using D-S combining evidences formulai
Mass functions mL(Hk|ui), mL(HΘ|ui), L=1,2,3, utilizing combining evidences formula to each expert about sub-goal ui's
Mass functions are synthesized, and are assembled to expertise, are obtained about sub-goal uiNew Mass function m (Hk|ui), m (HΘ|
ui)；
Step 3 is calculated about each scheme in sub-goal uiOn certainty evaluation value Si：
Problem translates into ascertaining type decision problem；
The final appraisal results of each scheme can be obtained using weighting method for step 4.
5. a kind of realizing the shortage of water resources risk analysis method based on evidential reasoning described in Claims 1 to 4 any one
Information data processing terminal.
6. a kind of shortage of water resources risk analysis method based on evidential reasoning as described in claim 1 based on evidential reasoning
Shortage of water resources risk analysis system, which is characterized in that the shortage of water resources risk analysis system based on evidential reasoning
Including：
Model construction module establishes the hierarchical structure model of general objective for being decomposed to general objective；
Computing module gives evaluation appropriate for the attribute value to each computing unit；
Evaluation module, for being evaluated the risk of computing unit with Evidential reasoning algorithm.
7. the shortage of water resources risk analysis system based on evidential reasoning as claimed in claim 6, which is characterized in that the mould
Type builds module：General objective layer unit, sub-goal layer unit, sub- index layer unit.
8. a kind of realizing the shortage of water resources risk analysis system based on evidential reasoning described in claim 6~7 any one
Information data processing terminal.
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