CN108364060A - A kind of classification design method of highway - Google Patents

A kind of classification design method of highway Download PDF

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CN108364060A
CN108364060A CN201810095827.3A CN201810095827A CN108364060A CN 108364060 A CN108364060 A CN 108364060A CN 201810095827 A CN201810095827 A CN 201810095827A CN 108364060 A CN108364060 A CN 108364060A
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靳灿章
杨春风
王新岐
张强
杨朝辉
郜泽康
肖田
熊军
赵聚成
沈可
李松
于海
刘中峰
李伟楠
王亚川
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Tianjin Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of classification design methods of highway:Establish differential weights Grey BP Neural Network built-up pattern;Utilize differential weights Grey BP Neural Network Combined model forecast nonagricultural population's quantity;Estimation prediction year town site newly increased requirement amount S1 (n=i);Determine the town site area S that practical maximum can increase2;Pass through S1 (n=i)And S2Comparative analysis, divide highway type.The present invention carries out classification refinement to highway type, to different types of highway using the new designing concept for adapting to the development of periphery plot, highway programming and distribution is made to develop in harmony with neighboring area urbanization process.

Description

一种高速公路的分类设计方法A Classified Design Method for Expressway

技术领域technical field

本发明涉及交通运输行业的高速公路的分类设计方法,更具体的说,是涉及一种高速公路的分类设计方法。The invention relates to a method for classifying and designing expressways in the transportation industry, and more specifically, relates to a method for classifying and designing expressways.

背景技术Background technique

传统高速公路规划布局理念认为高速公路是一个封闭的独立系统,主要作用是保证过境以及出入境的交通转换,并未根据所处区位,对其类型进行分类细化,忽视了高速公路布局与周边城市发展之间的关系。但随着我国城市化进程加快,越来越多的高速公路割裂城市地块,严重阻碍了城市建设用地扩张。The traditional concept of expressway planning and layout believes that expressway is a closed and independent system whose main function is to ensure the transition of transit and entry-exit traffic. It does not classify and refine its type according to its location, ignoring the layout of expressways and the surrounding areas. relationship between urban development. However, as my country's urbanization process accelerates, more and more expressways split urban land, seriously hindering the expansion of urban construction land.

发明内容Contents of the invention

本发明的目的是为了克服现有技术中的不足,提供了一种高速公路的分类设计方法,对高速公路类型进行分类细化,对不同类型的高速公路采用适应周边地块发展的新设计理念,使高速公路规划布局与周边区域城市化进程协调发展。The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, provide a kind of expressway classification design method, classify and refine the expressway types, and adopt new design concepts that adapt to the development of surrounding land plots for different types of expressways , so that the planning and layout of the expressway can develop in harmony with the urbanization process of the surrounding areas.

本发明的目的是通过以下技术方案实现的。The purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions.

一种高速公路的分类设计方法,包括以下步骤:A classification design method for expressways, comprising the following steps:

步骤一,建立不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型;Step 1, establishing an unequal weight gray BP neural network combination model;

步骤二,非农业人口预测:利用不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型预测非农业人口数量;Step 2, non-agricultural population prediction: use the unequal weight gray BP neural network combination model to predict the number of non-agricultural population;

步骤三,估算预测年城市建设用地新增需求量S1 (n=i):利用非农业人口数量,结合《城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准GB50137-2011》、当地土地政策,得到预测年城市建设用地新增需求量;Step 3: Estimating the new demand for urban construction land in the forecast year S 1 (n=i) : Using the number of non-agricultural population, combining the "Urban Land Classification and Planning and Construction Land Standard GB50137-2011" and local land policies, the forecasted annual urban Increased demand for construction land;

步骤四,确定实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积S2:以现状(或规划)高速公路线位、区域可利用建设用地的地理分界线为边界,在地图上绘制封闭几何图形,获取实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积;Step 4: Determine the actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area S 2 : take the current (or planned) expressway line position and the geographical boundary of the regional available construction land as the boundary, draw a closed geometric figure on the map, and obtain the actual maximum Increaseable urban construction land area;

步骤五,通过S1 (n=i)和S2的比较分析,划分高速公路类型。Step five, classify the expressway types through the comparative analysis of S 1 (n=i) and S 2 .

步骤一中不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型的建立过程:The establishment process of the unequal weight gray BP neural network combination model in step 1:

(1)建立原始灰色预测模型(1) Establish the original gray prediction model

建立原始数据序列:Create a raw data sequence:

X(0)={x(0)(1),x(0)(2),...,x(0)(n)}X (0) ={x (0) (1),x (0) (2),...,x (0) (n)}

根据下式According to the following formula

对原始数据序列进行一阶累加,生成1-AGO序列:Perform first-order accumulation on the original data sequence to generate a 1-AGO sequence:

X(1)={x(1)(1),x(1)(2),...,x(1)(n)}X (1) ={x (1) (1),x (1) (2),...,x (1) (n)}

(2)原始灰色预测模型不等权优化(2) Unequal weight optimization of the original gray prediction model

采用层次分析法优化原始灰色预测模型,采用德尔菲法对各因素两两比较,进行评估,分别确定近期时间序列权重为λ1,远期的权重为λ2,原始灰色预测模型不等权优化为:Using AHP to optimize the original gray forecasting model, using Delphi method to compare and evaluate each factor pairwise, determine the short-term time series weight as λ 1 and the long-term weight as λ 2 , and optimize the original gray forecasting model with unequal weights for:

进而生成不等权1-AGO序列模型:Then generate the unequal weight 1-AGO sequence model:

X′(1)={x′(1)(1),x′(1)(2),...,x′(1)(n)}X' (1) = {x' (1) (1),x' (1) (2),...,x' (1) (n)}

(4)BP神经网络设计(4) BP neural network design

建立一个含有输入层、隐层、输出层的三层网络:Build a three-layer network with an input layer, a hidden layer, and an output layer:

①在不等权1-AGO序列模型中选取时间序列值{x′(1)(1),x′(1)(2),...,x′(1)(m)}(m<n)作为BP神经网络的输入层;①Select the time series value {x′ (1) (1),x′ (1) (2),...,x′ (1) (m)} in the unequal weighted 1-AGO sequence model (m< n) as the input layer of BP neural network;

②以x′(1)(m+1)作为BP神经网络的输出层;② Use x′ (1) (m+1) as the output layer of the BP neural network;

③隐层节点根据公式计算确定,m为输入神经元的个数,p为输出神经元的个数,q为1~10之间的常数;③ Hidden layer nodes according to the formula Determined by calculation, m is the number of input neurons, p is the number of output neurons, and q is a constant between 1 and 10;

④利用训练好的BP神经网络进行预测,对预测序列利用累减还原即得到对未来的预测值。④ Use the trained BP neural network to make predictions, and use cumulative reduction and reduction for the prediction sequence to obtain the predicted value for the future.

步骤二中非农业人口预测过程具体为:The non-agricultural population forecasting process in Step 2 is as follows:

收集城市中所预测区域的历年非农业人口数量组成原始时间序列:Collect the non-agricultural population of the predicted area in the city over the years to form the original time series:

采用改进后的不等权灰色预测模型进行累加,得到改进非农业人口累加序列:The improved non-agricultural population accumulation sequence is obtained by using the improved unequal weight gray prediction model for accumulation:

将所得序列输入到已经训练好的BP神经网络中,对BP神经网络计算得到的最优结果进行累减还原,即得到预测年的非农业人口预测值。The obtained sequence is input into the trained BP neural network, and the optimal result calculated by the BP neural network is accumulated and restored to obtain the predicted value of non-agricultural population in the forecast year.

步骤五中S1 (n=i)和S2的比较分析:Comparative analysis of S 1 (n=i) and S 2 in step five:

(1)若高速公路建成5年后所预测的预测年城市建设用地新增需求量不小于实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积,即:S1 (n=5)≥S2,则该高速公路属于“城区高速公路”;(1) If the predicted annual demand for new urban construction land is not less than the actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area 5 years after the completion of the expressway, that is: S 1 (n=5) ≥ S 2 , then the expressway The road belongs to the "urban expressway";

(2)若高速公路建成5-20年后所预测的预测年城市建设用地新增需求量不小于实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积,即:S1 (n=5~20)≥S2,则该高速公路属于“城郊高速公路”。(2) If the predicted annual demand for urban construction land is not less than the actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area after 5-20 years of expressway completion, that is: S 1 (n=5~20)S 2 , the expressway belongs to the "suburban expressway".

与现有技术相比,本发明的技术方案所带来的有益效果是:Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects brought by the technical solution of the present invention are:

(1)本发明建立不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型,预测城市扩张趋势,得出预测年城市建设用地新增需求量S1 (n=i),绘制现状(规划)高速公路布局影响下的城市建设用地范围,得出实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积S2,对S1 (n=i)和S2二者进行比较,明确预测年高速公路所属类型,为高速公路规划布局优化或改扩建方案决策提供依据。(1) The present invention sets up the combination model of unequal weight gray BP neural network, predicts the trend of urban expansion, and draws the newly added demand S 1 (n=i) of urban construction land in the forecast year, and draws the present situation (planning) under the influence of highway layout The actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area S 2 is obtained, and S 1 (n=i) and S 2 are compared to clearly predict the type of expressway in the year, which is optimized for expressway planning and layout Or provide a basis for decision-making on reconstruction and expansion plans.

(2)本发明区别于传统意义的高速公路,对高速公路类型进行了分类细化,提出了“城区高速公路”与“城郊高速公路”新概念,根据其区位特点,分别采用相应理念进行设计,在规划、设计过程中,充分考虑高速公路布局线位对于周边区域城市化的影响,为新建高速公路规划选址、现状高速公路改扩建方案决策提供技术支撑。(2) The present invention is different from the expressways in the traditional sense, classifies and refines the types of expressways, proposes new concepts of "urban expressways" and "suburban expressways", and adopts corresponding concepts to design respectively according to their location characteristics , in the process of planning and design, fully consider the influence of expressway layout and location on the urbanization of surrounding areas, and provide technical support for the planning and site selection of new expressways and the decision-making of existing expressway reconstruction and expansion plans.

附图说明Description of drawings

图1是本发明神经网络训练图;Fig. 1 is a neural network training figure of the present invention;

图2是神经网络拟合图;Fig. 2 is a neural network fitting diagram;

图3是天津建设用地规划图;Figure 3 is a planning map of construction land in Tianjin;

图4是东丽区未来建设用地测算图。Figure 4 is the calculation map of future construction land in Dongli District.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

下面结合附图对本发明作进一步的描述。The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

本发明的高速公路的分类设计方法,提出了“城区高速公路”与“城郊高速公路”的新概念,在设计阶段,结合周边区域城市建设用地扩张范围,明确高速公路发展定位,为指导制定高速公路规划及改扩建方案提供技术支撑。具体过程如下:The classification design method of expressways of the present invention proposes new concepts of "urban expressways" and "suburban expressways". Provide technical support for highway planning and reconstruction and expansion plans. The specific process is as follows:

一、建立不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型;1. Establish an unequal weight gray BP neural network combination model;

(1)建立原始灰色预测模型(1) Establish the original gray prediction model

建立原始数据序列:Create a raw data sequence:

X(0)={x(0)(1),x(0)(2),...,x(0)(n)} (1)X (0) ={x (0) (1),x (0) (2),...,x (0) (n)}(1)

根据下式(2)According to the following formula (2)

对原始数据序列X(0)进行一阶累加,生成1-AGO序列:Perform first-order accumulation on the original data sequence X (0) to generate a 1-AGO sequence:

X(1)={x(1)(1),x(1)(2),...,x(1)(n)} (3)X (1) ={x (1) (1),x (1) (2),...,x (1) (n)}(3)

(2)原始灰色预测模型不等权优化(2) Unequal weight optimization of the original gray prediction model

原始灰色预测模型仅对原始序列进行等权累加,并未考虑时间因素对于预测结果的影响,而在实际情况中,越接近预测年的时间序列所含信息量越大,越能体现未来发展的趋势,所分配权重也应越大。因此采用层次分析法对原始灰色预测模型进行进一步优化,邀请专家采用德尔菲法对各因素两两比较,进行评估,分别确定近期时间序列权重为λ1,远期的权重为λ2,原始灰色预测模型不等权优化为:The original gray forecasting model only performs equal-weighted accumulation on the original series, and does not consider the influence of time factors on the forecast results. In actual situations, the closer to the forecast year, the greater the amount of information contained in the time series, the more it can reflect the future development. trend, the assigned weight should also be larger. Therefore, the AHP is used to further optimize the original gray forecasting model, experts are invited to use the Delphi method to compare and evaluate each factor pairwise, and determine the weight of the short-term time series as λ 1 , the weight of the long-term as λ 2 , and the original gray The unequal weight optimization of the prediction model is:

进而生成不等权1-AGO序列模型:Then generate the unequal weight 1-AGO sequence model:

X′(1)={x′(1)(1),x′(1)(2),...,x′(1)(n)} (5)X' (1) ={x' (1) (1),x' (1) (2),...,x' (1) (n)}(5)

(5)BP神经网络设计(5) BP neural network design

建立一个含有输入层、隐层、输出层的三层网络:Build a three-layer network with an input layer, a hidden layer, and an output layer:

①在不等权1-AGO序列模型中选取时间序列值{x′(1)(1),x′(1)(2),...,x′(1)(m)}(m<n)作为BP神经网络的输入层;①Select the time series value {x′ (1) (1),x′ (1) (2),...,x′ (1) (m)} in the unequal weighted 1-AGO sequence model (m< n) as the input layer of BP neural network;

②以x′(1)(m+1)作为BP神经网络的输出层;② Use x′ (1) (m+1) as the output layer of the BP neural network;

③隐层节点可根据公式计算确定,m为输入神经元的个数,p为输出神经元的个数,q为1~10之间的常数;③ Hidden layer nodes can be based on the formula Determined by calculation, m is the number of input neurons, p is the number of output neurons, and q is a constant between 1 and 10;

④利用训练好的BP神经网络进行预测,对预测序列利用累减还原即得到对未来的预测值。④ Use the trained BP neural network to make predictions, and use cumulative reduction and reduction for the prediction sequence to obtain the predicted value for the future.

二、非农业人口预测:利用不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型预测非农业人口数量。2. Prediction of non-agricultural population: use the unequal weight gray BP neural network combination model to predict the number of non-agricultural population.

收集城市中所预测区域的历年非农业人口数量组成原始时间序列:Collect the non-agricultural population of the predicted area in the city over the years to form the original time series:

注:为历年非农业人口调查值。Note: It is the value of the non-agricultural population survey over the years.

采用改进后的不等权灰色预测模型进行累加,得到改进非农业人口累加序列:The improved non-agricultural population accumulation sequence is obtained by using the improved unequal weight gray prediction model for accumulation:

注:由公式(4)计算所得。Note: Calculated by formula (4).

将所得序列输入到已经训练好的BP神经网络中,对BP神经网络计算得到的最优结果进行累减还原,即可得到预测年的非农业人口预测值。The obtained sequence is input into the trained BP neural network, and the optimal result calculated by the BP neural network is accumulated and restored, and the predicted value of the non-agricultural population in the forecast year can be obtained.

三、估算预测年城市建设用地新增需求量S1 (n=i)3. Estimate the new demand for urban construction land S 1 (n=i) in the forecast year:

采用上述非农业人口数量的预测值,结合《城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准GB50137-2011》、当地土地政策,得到预测年城市建设用地新增需求量S1 (n=i)Using the predicted value of the above-mentioned non-agricultural population, combined with the "Urban Land Classification and Planning and Construction Land Standard GB50137-2011" and local land policies, the predicted annual urban construction land new demand S 1 (n=i) is obtained.

四、确定实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积S24. Determine the actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area S 2 :

城市化发展方向通常由适宜发展的中心区域向城区边缘扩张。以现状(或规划)高速公路线位、区域可利用建设用地的相关地理分界线为边界,在地图上绘制封闭几何图形,该几何图形的面积即为在高速公路修建后,城市发展至高速公路两侧时,城市实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积S2The development direction of urbanization usually expands from the central area suitable for development to the edge of the urban area. Draw a closed geometric figure on the map based on the current (or planned) expressway line position and the relevant geographical boundary of the available construction land in the area. On both sides, the actual maximum urban construction land area S 2 that can be increased in the city.

五、划分高速公路类型:5. Classification of Expressway Types:

一般高速公路的设计年限为20年,一般情况下,新建的高速公路在保证无质量问题以及超载超限问题的情况下,5年内不会进行大规模整修。因此以高速公路建成运营后5年和20年为节点,通过S1 (n=i)和S2的比较分析,划分高速公路类型。The design life of general expressways is 20 years. Under normal circumstances, under the condition of ensuring that there are no quality problems and overloading and exceeding the limit, newly-built expressways will not undergo large-scale renovation within 5 years. Therefore, 5 years and 20 years after the completion and operation of the expressway are taken as nodes, and the expressway types are divided through the comparative analysis of S 1 (n=i) and S 2 .

S1 (n=i)和S2的比较分析:Comparative analysis of S 1 (n=i) and S 2 :

(1)若高速公路建成5年后所预测的预测年城市建设用地新增需求量不小于实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积,即:S1 (n=5)≥S2。说明此高速公路将会很快侵入临近的行政区域,阻碍周边区域的城市化进程,属于“城区高速公路”,需采用“城区高速公路”相关理念进行规划设计。(1) If the estimated new demand for urban construction land is not less than the actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area five years after the expressway is completed, that is: S 1 (n=5) ≥ S 2 . It shows that this expressway will soon invade the adjacent administrative area and hinder the urbanization process of the surrounding area. It belongs to the "urban expressway" and needs to adopt the concept of "urban expressway" for planning and design.

(2)若高速公路建成5-20年后所预测的预测年城市建设用地新增需求量不小于实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积,即:S1 (n=5~20)≥S2。说明该高速公路虽然在一定时间内不会阻碍城市发张,但是在设计年限内将会进入城市,属于““城郊高速公路”,需采用“城郊高速公路”相关理念进行设计。(2) If the predicted annual demand for urban construction land is not less than the actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area after 5-20 years of expressway completion, that is: S 1 (n=5~20)S 2 . It shows that although the expressway will not hinder the development of the city within a certain period of time, it will enter the city within the design period. It belongs to the "suburban expressway" and needs to be designed with the concept of "suburban expressway".

根据以上方案的结果进行高速公路规划布局优化或改扩建方案优化。According to the results of the above schemes, optimize the planning and layout of expressways or optimize the reconstruction and expansion schemes.

实施例:Example:

天津东丽区地处津滨发展的主轴,东接滨海新区核心区,西连中心城区,是天津市中心城区和滨海新区的重要功能区。天津的发展模式是主城区和滨海新区双城发展,两个城区之间的东丽区就成为了天津的主要发展区域。蓟汕高速公路起于京津高速,终点接至国家高速路网中的荣乌高速(津晋高速),沿途经过东丽、津南、西青三区,于2016年通车运营。根据天津城市发展的规划方向,蓟汕高速公路东丽段极有可能在设计年限内进入城市,下面利用本专利提出的方法对蓟汕高速公路进行判断和分类。Tianjin Dongli District is located in the main axis of the development of Jinbin, bordering the core area of Binhai New Area in the east and the central urban area in the west. It is an important functional area of the central urban area of Tianjin and Binhai New Area. Tianjin's development model is the twin-city development of the main urban area and the Binhai New Area, and Dongli District between the two urban areas has become the main development area of Tianjin. Jishan Expressway starts from Beijing-Tianjin Expressway and ends at Rongwu Expressway (Jinjin Expressway) in the national expressway network. It passes through Dongli, Jinnan, and Xiqing Districts along the way. According to the planning direction of Tianjin's urban development, the Dongli section of Jishan Expressway is very likely to enter the city within the design period. The method proposed in this patent will be used to judge and classify Jishan Expressway.

从《天津统计年鉴》中获取东丽区近20年非农业人口数,即n=20;采用德尔菲法确定近期时间序列权重λ1=0.65,远期的权重为λ2=0.35。Obtain the non-agricultural population of Dongli District in the past 20 years from Tianjin Statistical Yearbook, that is, n=20; use Delphi method to determine the short-term time series weight λ 1 =0.65, and the long-term weight λ 2 =0.35.

采用优化的不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型对城区非农业人口进行预测,其中所选的训练函数为trainlm,第一层传递函数为tansig,第二层传递函数为purelin,训练误差为0.0001,学习速率为0.1。The optimized unequal weight gray BP neural network combination model is used to predict the non-agricultural population in urban areas. The selected training function is trainlm, the transfer function of the first layer is tansig, the transfer function of the second layer is purelin, and the training error is 0.0001. The learning rate is 0.1.

经过反复实验,确定参数m=8,p=1,q=10时预测效果最好。训练图如图1所示,拟合图如图2所示,统计数据以及预测结果如表1所示。After repeated experiments, it is determined that the prediction effect is the best when the parameters m=8, p=1, and q=10. The training graph is shown in Figure 1, the fitting graph is shown in Figure 2, and the statistical data and prediction results are shown in Table 1.

表1天津市东丽区人口数预测结果与误差Table 1 Population prediction results and errors of Dongli District, Tianjin

根据天津市东丽区发展规划,东丽区拟定城市建设用地人均面积控制在100m2/人,由《城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准GB50137-2011》得到天津市人均城市建设用地规模取值范围为75~100m2/人,选取规划人均城市建设用地取值为90m2/人,根据上述的人口数量的预测值,计算得到自蓟汕高速公路建成通车5年以及10年后,天津市东丽区城市建设用地面积增量分别为S1 (n=5)=8.19km2和S1 (n=10)=18.19km2According to the development plan of Dongli District, Tianjin, the per capita area of urban construction land in Dongli District is controlled at 100m 2 /person, and the value range of urban construction land per capita in Tianjin is obtained from the "Urban Land Classification and Planning and Construction Land Standard GB50137-2011" is 75-100m 2 /person, and the planned per capita urban construction land is selected as 90m 2 /person. According to the predicted value of the above population, it is calculated that since the Jishan Expressway was completed and opened to traffic 5 years and 10 years later, Tianjin East The urban construction land area increments in Li District are S 1 (n=5) =8.19km 2 and S 1 (n=10) =18.19km 2 respectively.

根据天津建设用地规划,东丽区的城市化方向由中心城区向东扩张,以蓟汕高速公路以及可利用建设用地的相关地理分界线为边界,东丽区可能会发展为建设用地的范围如图3、图4所示。可知,S2=16.38km2According to the planning of construction land in Tianjin, the urbanization direction of Dongli District expands from the central urban area to the east, with the Jishan Expressway and the relevant geographical dividing line of available construction land as the boundary. The scope of Dongli District may be developed into construction land as follows: Shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4. It can be seen that S 2 =16.38km 2 .

对比可知:S1 (n=5)<S2,S1 (n=10)>S2,说明:(1)在蓟汕高速通车运营5年后,东丽区城市建设用地的增加量较测算面积小,公路周边土地尚为发展为城市建设用地;(2)但随着城市化进程的加快,蓟汕高速通车运营10年后,东丽区将会逐渐向东拓展,城市建设用地的需求量已经超过了所测算的面积,即蓟汕高速公路布局将会阻碍东丽区的城市化进程,属于“城郊高速公路”,需在改扩建方案决策时,考虑其未来对东丽区城市扩张的影响。The comparison shows that: S 1 (n=5) <S 2 , S 1 (n=10) >S 2 , indicating: (1) After the opening of Jishan Expressway for 5 years, the increase of urban construction land in Dongli District is higher than that of The estimated area is small, and the land around the highway is still not developed into urban construction land; (2) But with the acceleration of urbanization, after 10 years of operation of Jishan Expressway, Dongli District will gradually expand eastward, and the urban construction land The demand has exceeded the calculated area, that is, the layout of the Jishan Expressway will hinder the urbanization process of Dongli District. The effect of expansion.

尽管上面结合附图对本发明的功能及工作过程进行了描述,但本发明并不局限于上述的具体功能和工作过程,上述的具体实施方式仅仅是示意性的,而不是限制性的,本领域的普通技术人员在本发明的启示下,在不脱离本发明宗旨和权利要求所保护的范围情况下,还可以做出很多形式,这些均属于本发明的保护之内。Although the function and working process of the present invention have been described above in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, the present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned specific functions and working process, and the above-mentioned specific implementation is only illustrative, rather than limiting. Under the enlightenment of the present invention, those skilled in the art can also make many forms without departing from the spirit of the present invention and the scope protected by the claims, and these all belong to the protection of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1.一种高速公路的分类设计方法,其特征在于,包括以下步骤:1. a classification design method of expressway, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps: 步骤一,建立不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型;Step 1, establishing an unequal weight gray BP neural network combination model; 步骤二,非农业人口预测:利用不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型预测非农业人口数量;Step 2, non-agricultural population prediction: use the unequal weight gray BP neural network combination model to predict the number of non-agricultural population; 步骤三,估算预测年城市建设用地新增需求量S1 (n=i):利用非农业人口数量,结合《城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准GB50137-2011》、当地土地政策,得到预测年城市建设用地新增需求量;Step 3: Estimating the new demand for urban construction land in the forecast year S 1 (n=i) : Using the number of non-agricultural population, combining the "Urban Land Classification and Planning and Construction Land Standard GB50137-2011" and local land policies, the forecasted annual urban Increased demand for construction land; 步骤四,确定实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积S2:以现状(或规划)高速公路线位、区域可利用建设用地的地理分界线为边界,在地图上绘制封闭几何图形,获取实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积;Step 4: Determine the actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area S 2 : take the current (or planned) expressway line position and the geographical boundary of the regional available construction land as the boundary, draw a closed geometric figure on the map, and obtain the actual maximum Increaseable urban construction land area; 步骤五,通过S1 (n=i)和S2的比较分析,划分高速公路类型。Step five, classify the expressway types through the comparative analysis of S 1 (n=i) and S 2 . 2.根据权利要求1所述的高速公路的分类设计方法,其特征在于,步骤一中不等权灰色BP神经网络组合模型建立过程:2. the classification design method of expressway according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in the step 1, unequal weight gray BP neural network combined model establishment process: (1)建立原始灰色预测模型(1) Establish the original gray prediction model 建立原始数据序列:Create a raw data sequence: X(0)={x(0)(1),x(0)(2),...,x(0)(n)}X (0) ={x (0) (1),x (0) (2),...,x (0) (n)} 根据下式According to the following formula 对原始数据序列进行一阶累加,生成1-AGO序列:Perform first-order accumulation on the original data sequence to generate a 1-AGO sequence: X(1)={x(1)(1),x(1)(2),...,x(1)(n)}X (1) ={x (1) (1),x (1) (2),...,x (1) (n)} (2)原始灰色预测模型不等权优化(2) Unequal weight optimization of the original gray prediction model 采用层次分析法优化原始灰色预测模型,采用德尔菲法对各因素两两比较,进行评估,分别确定近期时间序列权重为λ1,远期的权重为λ2,原始灰色预测模型不等权优化为:Using AHP to optimize the original gray forecasting model, using Delphi method to compare and evaluate each factor pairwise, determine the short-term time series weight as λ 1 and the long-term weight as λ 2 , and optimize the original gray forecasting model with unequal weights for: 进而生成不等权1-AGO序列模型:Then generate the unequal weight 1-AGO sequence model: X′(1)={x′(1)(1),x′(1)(2),...,x′(1)(n)}X' (1) = {x' (1) (1),x' (1) (2),...,x' (1) (n)} (3)BP神经网络设计(3) BP neural network design 建立一个含有输入层、隐层、输出层的三层网络:Build a three-layer network with an input layer, a hidden layer, and an output layer: ①在不等权1-AGO序列模型中选取时间序列值{x′(1)(1),x′(1)(2),...,x′(1)(m)}(m<n)作为BP神经网络的输入层;①Select the time series value {x′ (1) (1),x′ (1) (2),...,x′ (1) (m)} in the unequal weighted 1-AGO sequence model (m< n) as the input layer of BP neural network; ②以x′(1)(m+1)作为BP神经网络的输出层;② Use x′ (1) (m+1) as the output layer of the BP neural network; ③隐层节点根据公式计算确定,m为输入神经元的个数,p为输出神经元的个数,q为1~10之间的常数;③ Hidden layer nodes according to the formula Determined by calculation, m is the number of input neurons, p is the number of output neurons, and q is a constant between 1 and 10; ④利用训练好的BP神经网络进行预测,对预测序列利用累减还原即得到对未来的预测值。④ Use the trained BP neural network to make predictions, and use cumulative reduction and reduction for the prediction sequence to obtain the predicted value for the future. 3.根据权利要求1所述的高速公路的分类设计方法,其特征在于,步骤二中非农业人口预测过程具体为:3. the classification design method of expressway according to claim 1, is characterized in that, non-agricultural population forecasting process is specially in step 2: 收集城市中所预测区域的历年非农业人口数量组成原始时间序列:Collect the non-agricultural population of the predicted area in the city over the years to form the original time series: 采用改进后的不等权灰色预测模型进行累加,得到改进非农业人口累加序列:The improved non-agricultural population accumulation sequence is obtained by using the improved unequal weight gray prediction model for accumulation: 将所得序列输入到已经训练好的BP神经网络中,对BP神经网络计算得到的最优结果进行累减还原,即得到预测年的非农业人口预测值。The obtained sequence is input into the trained BP neural network, and the optimal result calculated by the BP neural network is accumulated and restored to obtain the predicted value of non-agricultural population in the forecast year. 4.根据权利要求1所述的高速公路的分类设计方法,其特征在于,步骤五中S1 (n=i)和S2的比较分析:4. the classified design method of expressway according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in step 5, S 1 (n=i) and S 2 comparative analysis: (1)若高速公路建成5年后所预测的预测年城市建设用地新增需求量不小于实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积,即:S1 (n=5)≥S2,则该高速公路属于“城区高速公路”;(1) If the predicted annual demand for new urban construction land is not less than the actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area 5 years after the completion of the expressway, that is: S 1 (n=5) ≥ S 2 , then the expressway The road belongs to the "urban expressway"; (2)若高速公路建成5-20年后所预测的预测年城市建设用地新增需求量不小于实际最大可增长的城市建设用地面积,即:S1 (n=5~20)≥S2,则该高速公路属于“城郊高速公路”。(2) If the predicted annual demand for urban construction land is not less than the actual maximum increaseable urban construction land area after 5-20 years of expressway completion, that is: S 1 (n=5~20)S 2 , the expressway belongs to the "suburban expressway".
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