CN108288170A - A kind of evaluation method of the Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) - Google Patents

A kind of evaluation method of the Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Download PDF

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CN108288170A
CN108288170A CN201711287866.5A CN201711287866A CN108288170A CN 108288170 A CN108288170 A CN 108288170A CN 201711287866 A CN201711287866 A CN 201711287866A CN 108288170 A CN108288170 A CN 108288170A
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demand side
side response
ahp
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王燕
王俊伟
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Shanghai University of Electric Power
University of Shanghai for Science and Technology
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Abstract

The evaluation method for the Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) that the present invention relates to a kind of, includes the following steps:S1, all kinds of Indexes of Value Assessment of Demand Side Response project implementation effect are passed through into analytic hierarchy process (AHP) constitution and implementation Evaluation Model on Effectiveness;S2, tasting results are shown to top right vector by seeking the evaluation model bottom;The Indexes of Value Assessment of the Demand Side Response project implementation effect includes Generation Side, grid side, large user, resident and the whole society.Compared with prior art, the present invention contributes to the decision of Demand Side Response project, the effect of supervision and check Demand Side Response implementation, summarizes between Demand Side Response work before, the comparison of Demand Side Response implementation achievement, the comparison of same city Demand Side Response project implementation effect in different time periods different cities, the further development of advantageous Demand Side Response work.

Description

A kind of evaluation method of the Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Technical field
The present invention relates to electricity markets and economic field, more particularly, to a kind of Demand Side Response based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) The evaluation method of project.
Background technology
With the development of Demand Side Response, Demand Side Response is gradually demonstrated in the form of a kind of resource in the visual field of people, It possesses resource value similar with Generation Side resource, can be used for alleviating energy crisis, stablizes electricity price, power grid shifting peak is pushed to fill out The effects that paddy, the on-road efficiency that power load fluctuation can also be reduced, improve power grid.
All the time, people never stopped the research of Demand Side Response with practice, and achieved good effect. There is Demand Side Response resource certain value, this resource value to refer to that Demand Side Response project application is transported in electric system Generated effect and influence in row include the raising etc. of the load of transfer, the capacity avoided, security reliability, fill Divide and consider the effect of various aspects and influence caused by Demand Side Response, using scientific and effective method to Demand Side Response item The effect that mesh is implemented is appraised through comparison.
Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is that element related with decision is resolved into the levels such as target, criterion, scheme, on this basis into The decision-making technique of capable qualitative and quantitative analysis.Number is used in combination in the policy-making thought procedure level of people, quantification, modelling by it It learns to do section and provides quantitative foundation for analysis, decision, be a kind of method that quantitative analysis is carried out to non-quantitation event, this method is suitable For the Analysis of Policy Making of multiple criteria, multiple target or challenge without structure feature, it is widely used in administrative evaluation, economic development ratio Compared with, resource planning analysis, Accident Causes Analysis, human quality evaluation and security and economy analysis etc..
The advantages of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) includes:Systematicness:By object depending on doing system, according to decomposing, compare, judge, integrate The mode of thinking carries out decision.It is the important tool of the network analysis to grow up after Analysis on Mechanism, network analysis;It is practical Property:Qualitative and quantitative combines, and can handle the practical problem that can not be much set about with traditional Techniques of Optimum, application range is very Extensively, meanwhile, this method enables policymaker to communicate with each other with Analysis of Policy Making person, and policymaker even can directly apply it, This adds increased the validity of decision;Terseness:Simplicity is calculated, as a result clear, application person can easily understand analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Basic principle and grasp the basic step of the method.
But analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has the following disadvantages:It limits old:Original scheme can only be compared, obtain most the superior, do not have There is method to obtain better new departure;Roughly:The calculating process of comparison, judgement and result in this method is all relatively rough , it is not suitable for the higher problem of precision;It is subjective:From hierarchy Model is established to providing pairwise comparison matrix, people's subjectivity because Influence of the element to whole process is very big, this allows for result and all policymaker is made it difficult for receive.
It is at the early-stage to the research of Demand Side Response project appraisal at this stage, suitable China's actual conditions, more comprehensive, The evaluation method of authority does not occur also.Therefore how binding hierarchy analytic approach, which builds scientific and reasonable evaluation model, is rung Demand-side It is the technical issues of still needing to solve at this stage to answer project appraisal to carry out research.
Invention content
It is an object of the present invention to overcome the above-mentioned drawbacks of the prior art and provide one kind being based on step analysis The evaluation method of the Demand Side Response project of method.
The purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of evaluation method of the Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), includes the following steps:
S1, all kinds of Indexes of Value Assessment of Demand Side Response project implementation effect are imitated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) constitution and implementation Fruit evaluation model;
S2, tasting results are shown to top right vector by seeking the evaluation model bottom.
Preferably, the Indexes of Value Assessment of the Demand Side Response project implementation effect includes Generation Side, grid side, big use Family, resident and the whole society.
Preferably, the step S1 is specifically included:
S11, hierarchical structure model is established;
S12, Judgement Matricies;
The consistency check of S13, Mode of Level Simple Sequence and judgment matrix;
S14, total hierarchial sorting and its consistency check.
Preferably, the step S12 is specifically included:
Each factor for being subordinated to last layer is compared two-by-two, compares its significance level for criterion, and press Defined scale quantification in advance constitutes judgment matrix;The numerical value of each element is determined using 1~9 scaling law in judgment matrix.
Preferably, the middle-level single sequences of the step S13 specifically include:
Calculate the maximum eigenvalue λ of judgment matrixmax, seek maximum eigenvalue λmaxCorresponding feature vector, through normalization Processing obtains the weights of each factor in same layer for certain factor relative importance of last layer time;
The consistency check of the judgment matrix includes that coincident indicator is examined and consistency ration inspection, the consistency Index is:
Wherein, n is the number of pairs of comparative factor;
The consistency ration is:
Wherein, RI is random index.
Preferably, the middle-level total sequences of the step S14 specifically include:
Calculate weights of all factors of a certain layer for top relative importance successively from highest level to lowest level, If B layers of n element B of solution layer1,B2,…,Bn, B layers of total hierarchial sorting is:
B1:a1b11+a2b12+...amb1m
B2:a1b21+a2b22+...amb2m
...
Bn:a1bn1+a2bn2+...ambnm
Wherein, a1,a2,…,amSequence for A layers of m factor of rule layer to target Z, b1j,b2j,…,bmjIndicate B layers of member Element is to factor A in the A of upper layerjMode of Level Simple Sequence, j=1,2 ..., m;
The consistency check of the total hierarchial sorting includes that consistency ratio is examined, and the consistency ratio is:
Wherein, CIjIndicate the coincident indicator of the B layers of Mode of Level Simple Sequence to A j-th of element of layer, RIjB layers are indicated to A layers The Mode of Level Simple Sequence random index of j-th of element.
Compared with prior art, the present invention obtains Indexes of Value Assessment from benefit angle, builds based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) The model of Demand Side Response project implementation effect assessment contributes to the decision of Demand Side Response project, supervision and check Demand-side to ring The effect that should implement, summarize between Demand Side Response work before, different cities Demand Side Response implementation achievement ratio Compared with the comparison of, same city Demand Side Response project implementation effect in different time periods, advantageous Demand Side Response work into one Step is carried out.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is three layers of hierarchy Model of analytic hierarchy process (AHP);
Fig. 2 is that the embodiment of the present invention two is referred to based on five Generation Side, grid side, large user, resident, whole society value assessments Mark the hierarchy Model of the Demand Side Response project of structure.
Specific implementation mode
The present invention is described in detail with specific embodiment below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.The present embodiment is with technical solution of the present invention Premised on implemented, give detailed embodiment and specific operating process, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to Following embodiments.
Embodiment one
A kind of evaluation method of the Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) utilizes Generation Side, grid side, big use Family, resident, the whole society Indexes of Value Assessment of the evaluation index as Demand Side Response implementation result, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) ratio Compared with the implementation result of Demand Side Response, to select optimal Demand Side Response project, it to be used for tomorrow requirement side response item purpose Decision first evaluates kinds of schemes before the Demand Side Response project implementation, selects optimal scheme and implements.This method Include the following steps:
S1, all kinds of Indexes of Value Assessment of Demand Side Response project implementation effect are imitated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) constitution and implementation Fruit evaluation model;
S2, tasting results are shown to top right vector by seeking the evaluation model bottom.
According to the different response modes of user, Demand Side Response can be divided into and respond and be based on based on price demand side The Demand Side Response of excitation.The either still Demand Side Response measure based on excitation of the Demand Side Response measure based on price, In specific implementation process, effect mainly on the basis of ensureing system operation reliability, reduces power grid peak load and then carries The economy of high entire electric system and ensure its safety, therefore the value of Demand-side resource can be embodied in user comprehensively In side, supply side, Generation Side and entire society, user side can be divided into large user and resident again;Finally examined from benefit angle Worry determines five evaluation indexes:Generation Side, grid side, large user, resident, the whole society evaluation index.
Step S1 is specifically included:
S11, hierarchical structure model is established;
S12, Judgement Matricies;
The consistency check of S13, Mode of Level Simple Sequence and judgment matrix;
S14, total hierarchial sorting and its consistency check.
Step S11 structure hierarchy Models are a steps of key, to have main decision-making level to participate in, build in pairs relatively square Battle array, is the quantity foundation of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), should be provided by experienced, good sense expert.Build step analysis structure mould Type is mainly the factor and its correlation that problem analysis is included, by related each factor according to different attributes from upper and Several levels are resolved into lowerly.The factors of same level are subordinated to the factor of last layer or have an impact to upper layer factor, simultaneously Next layer of factor is dominated again or is acted on by next layer of factor.Hierarchical structure is commonly divided into top, middle layer and most bottom Layer.
It is top:Destination layer, the purpose that expression solves the problems, such as, i.e. step analysis general objective to be achieved, usually only one A general objective.
Middle layer:Rule layer, indicator layer, expression take certain measure, policy, scheme etc. to realize involved by predetermined general objective Intermediate link, be generally divided into as rule layer, indicator layer, strategic layer, restraint layer etc..
The bottom:Solution layer indicates available various measures, policy, scheme solved the problems, such as etc., usually has multiple sides Case is optional.
The problem of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) will solve the problems, such as is about the bottom to top combining weights, by this relative weighting Various project and measures in the bottom can be ranked up, to make a choice or be formed selection scheme in different schemes Principle.
Step S12 Judgement Matricies refer in hierarchical structure, and each factor for being subordinated to last layer carries out two Two compare, and compare its significance level for criterion, and by defined scale quantification in advance, constitute matrix form, that is, judge Matrix.The numerical value of each element is generally determined using 1~9 scaling law in judgment matrix, using scaling law, reduces property as far as possible The difficulty that different factors are compared to each other, improves accuracy, and the Scale Method of judgment matrix element is as shown in table 1 below.
The Scale Method of 1 judgment matrix of table
Scale Meaning
1 Two factors are compared, and have no less important
3 Two factors are compared, and one slightly more important than another
5 Two factors are compared, and one apparent more important than another
7 Two factors are compared, and one strong more important than another
9 Two factors are compared, and one more extremely important than another
2,4,6,8 The intermediate value of above-mentioned two adjacent judgement
The key of the middle-level single sequences of step S13 is the relative weighting for calculating each factor of judgment matrix and being directed to its criterion.It is first First calculate the maximum eigenvalue λ of judgment matrixmax, then seek maximum eigenvalue λmaxCorresponding characteristic vector W, at normalization Reason, obtained result be in same layer each factor for the weights of last layer time certain factor relative importance.
For three layers of hierarchy Model, Fig. 1 is seen, the Mode of Level Simple Sequence result sought is as follows:Rule layer A layers m because Plain A1,A2,…,Am, a is ordered as to target Z1,a2,…,am, B layers of n element of solution layer are to factor A in the A of upper layerjLevel Singly it is ordered as b1j,b2j,…,bmj, j=1,2 ..., m.
The consistency of judgment matrix satisfaction generally is required in practice, then needs to carry out consistency check to it.So-called one Whether it refers to test and judge matrix within inconsistent allowable range that cause property is examined, and only by examining, could illustrate to judge Matrix is logically reasonable, and could continue to analyze result.Consistency check is carried out to judgment matrix, including consistent Property index test and consistency ration examine, coincident indicator is:
Wherein, CI is coincident indicator, and n is the number of pairs of comparative factor;CI=0 has complete consistency;CI is close 0, there is satisfied consistency, CI is bigger, and inconsistency is more serious.
Consistency ration is:
Wherein, CR is consistency ration.Work as CR<When 0.1, it is believed that the consistency of judgment matrix is acceptable, otherwise Reply judgment matrix is unsatisfactory for consistency check and needs to make appropriate correct.RI is random index, and numerical value can table look-up 2 really It is fixed.
2 random index RI values of table
Exponent number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
RI 0 0 0.58 0.89 1.12 1.36 1.41 1.46 1.46
The middle-level total sequences of step S14 specifically include:
Calculate weights of all factors of a certain layer for top relative importance successively from highest level to lowest level, If B layers of n element B of solution layer1,B2,…,Bn, B layers of total hierarchial sorting is:
B1:a1b11+a2b12+...amb1m
B2:a1b21+a2b22+...amb2m
...
Bn:a1bn1+a2bn2+...ambnm
That is B i-th of factor of layer be to the weights of general objectiveWherein, a1,a2,…,amFor rule layer A layers m because Sequence of the element to target Z, b1j,b2j,…,bmjIndicate B layers of element to factor A in the A of upper layerjMode of Level Simple Sequence, j=1,2 ..., m。
The consistency check of total hierarchial sorting includes that consistency ratio is examined, and consistency ratio is:
Wherein, CIjIndicate the coincident indicator of the B layers of Mode of Level Simple Sequence to A j-th of element of layer, RIjB layers are indicated to A layers The Mode of Level Simple Sequence random index of j-th of element.
Work as CR<When 0.1, it is believed that total hierarchial sorting passes through consistency check.Total hierarchial sorting has satisfied consistency, no Then need to readjust the element value of the higher judgment matrix of those consistency ratios.So far, most stratum is to top layer Secondary total sequence terminates.
Embodiment two
The present embodiment is based on Generation Side, grid side, large user, resident, five evaluation indexes of the whole society and 2013~2015 The hierarchical structure evaluation model of the scheme constructs demand response project decision in year, as shown in Figure 2.
It is analyzed and is discussed by seminar teacher expert, construct the pairwise comparison matrix of demand response project decision, first structure Make about Generation Side, grid side, large user, resident, the whole society pairwise comparison matrix, i.e. judgment matrix AP.
The maximum eigenvalue λ of APmax=5.19, corresponding feature vector is:
W(2)=(0.3489,0.3329,0.1216,0.0989,0.0976)T
Coincident indicator:CI=(5.19-5)/(5-1)=0.0475,2 random indexes that can obtain exponent number 5 of tabling look-up RI=1.12, consistency ratio CR=0.0475/1.12=0.042<0.1, pass through consistency check.
Similarly, 2013,2014,2015 years sentence about Generation Side, grid side, large user, resident, whole society's five indices Disconnected matrix is:
The corresponding feature vector of the maximum eigenvalue of each attribute, characteristic value such as 3 institute of table can be obtained according to the method for the second layer Show.
The maximum eigenvalue of 3 each attribute of table
Index Generation Side Grid side Large user Resident The whole society
λmax 3.0183 3.0649 3.0055 3.0713 3.0536
Characteristic vector W(3)For
Pass through consistency check;Third layer is as shown in table 4 to the result of calculation of the second layer.
Result of calculation of 4 third layer of table to the second layer
Total hierarchial sorting and consistency check:
W=W(3)×W(2)
CI=CIj×W(2)=0.01073 < 0.1
RI=0.58, CR=CI/RI=0.01073/0.58=0.0185 when exponent number known to 2 of tabling look-up is 3<0.1 passes through one Cause property is examined, then by the result of W it is found that Demand Side Response project implementation effect comparison result in 3 years in 2013,2014,2015 It is 2014>2013>2015.
It can be seen that this method judges the implementation result of Demand Side Response using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), pass through assay The index of Demand Side Response implementation result considers from benefit angle, has obtained Generation Side, grid side, large user, resident, Quan She Five indices can be total to.Then, understand the use principle of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), suitable application area and feature.Determine that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) can be with In comparative analysis for Demand Side Response implementation result.Finally, it is real to establish the Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Apply the model that effect compares, by the bottom to top right vector evaluation as a result, obtain 2013,2014 Year, continuous 3 years implementation results in 2015 be 2014 preferably, secondly 2015 are worst within 2013, this comparison result can be with Development for the work of following Demand Side Response provides reference.

Claims (6)

1. a kind of evaluation method of the Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which is characterized in that include the following steps:
S1, all kinds of Indexes of Value Assessment of Demand Side Response project implementation effect are commented by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) constitution and implementation effect Valence model;
S2, tasting results are shown to top right vector by seeking the evaluation model bottom.
2. a kind of evaluation method of Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) according to claim 1, feature It is, the Indexes of Value Assessment of the Demand Side Response project implementation effect includes Generation Side, grid side, large user, Ju Minhe The whole society.
3. a kind of evaluation method of Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) according to claim 1, feature It is, the step S1 is specifically included:
S11, hierarchical structure model is established;
S12, Judgement Matricies;
The consistency check of S13, Mode of Level Simple Sequence and judgment matrix;
S14, total hierarchial sorting and its consistency check.
4. a kind of evaluation method of Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) according to claim 3, feature It is, the step S12 is specifically included:
Each factor for being subordinated to last layer is compared two-by-two, compares its significance level for criterion, and by advance Defined scale quantification constitutes judgment matrix;The numerical value of each element is determined using 1~9 scaling law in judgment matrix.
5. a kind of evaluation method of Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) according to claim 3, feature It is, the middle-level single sequences of step S13 specifically include:
Calculate the maximum eigenvalue λ of judgment matrixmax, seek maximum eigenvalue λmaxCorresponding feature vector, through normalized, Obtain the weights of each factor in same layer for certain factor relative importance of last layer time;
The consistency check of the judgment matrix includes that coincident indicator is examined and consistency ration inspection, the coincident indicator For:
Wherein, n is the number of pairs of comparative factor, λmaxFor the maximum eigenvalue of judgment matrix;
The consistency ration is:
Wherein, RI is random index.
6. a kind of evaluation method of Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) according to claim 3, feature It is, the middle-level total sequences of step S14 specifically include:
Weights of all factors of a certain layer for top relative importance are calculated successively from highest level to lowest level, if side B layers of n element B of pattern layer1,B2,…,Bn, B layers of total hierarchial sorting is:
B1:a1b11+a2b12+...amb1m
B2:a1b21+a2b22+...amb2m
...
Bn:a1bn1+a2bn2+...ambnm
Wherein, a1,a2,…,amSequence for A layers of m factor of rule layer to target Z, b1j,b2j,…,bmjIndicate B layers of element pair Factor A in the A of upper layerjMode of Level Simple Sequence, j=1,2 ..., m;
The consistency check of the total hierarchial sorting includes that consistency ratio is examined, and the consistency ratio is:
Wherein, CIjIndicate the coincident indicator of the B layers of Mode of Level Simple Sequence to A j-th of element of layer, RIjB layers are indicated to j-th of A layers The Mode of Level Simple Sequence random index of element.
CN201711287866.5A 2017-12-07 2017-12-07 A kind of evaluation method of the Demand Side Response project based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Pending CN108288170A (en)

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* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109934464A (en) * 2019-02-20 2019-06-25 山东省农业机械科学研究院 A kind of water-fertilizer-pesticide decision system and method based on plant life sign
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CN116091206A (en) * 2023-01-31 2023-05-09 金电联行(北京)信息技术有限公司 Credit evaluation method, credit evaluation device, electronic equipment and storage medium
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