CN108108995A - A kind of fired power generating unit price quoting method and device based on new energy power prediction - Google Patents
A kind of fired power generating unit price quoting method and device based on new energy power prediction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of fired power generating unit price quoting methods and device based on new energy power prediction, first determine the prediction generated output of new energy, then the prediction generated energy of new energy is calculated, finally when whether the prediction generated energy of new energy is more than or equal to the preset ratio of new energy rated generation amount, the coal consumption converted into according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening determines the quotation of fired power generating unit.Technical solution provided by the invention not only allows for itself coal consumption and the operating cost of fired power generating unit, also contemplate the fluctuation that new energy is contributed in one's respective area, fired power generating unit power generation space is avoided to be tied up by new energy, market clearing price increases, and is conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of electricity market.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of new energy technologies, and in particular to a kind of fired power generating unit quotation based on new energy power prediction
Method and apparatus.
Background technology
《Several opinions on further in-depth power system reform》It proposes to improve the service of being incorporated into the power networks, support energetically new
Energy development, while ensure that new energy is surfed the Internet, strengthen power grid construction, improve new energy degree of participation in regional power grid, and strengthen
Contacting between new energy and trans-regional power supply and power grid earnestly implements the protection purchase of new energy institute generated energy according to planning
System resolves without discrimination, accessible online.The generation of electricity by new energy operational management mould for adapting to Power Market Development is established as early as possible
Formula adapts to the variation of external environment in time, ensures the sustainable and healthy development of new energy.
At present, ripe electricity market establishes the market-oriented consumption machine that new energy market price bidding and government subsidy are combined
System.Electricity market is really the competition of marginal cost, and new energy has exhausted since its marginal generation cost is low in market competition
To advantage, new energy, which participates in market, can realize preferential power generation.In the prior art, the quotation of fired power generating unit only considers fired power generating unit
Itself coal consumption and operating cost, and without considering in one's respective area new energy contribute fluctuation, directly result in fired power generating unit power generation
Space is tied up by new energy, and market clearing price is pulled low, and affects the income of fired power generating unit, is unfavorable for holding for electricity market
It is continuous to develop in a healthy way.
The content of the invention
In order to overcome, above-mentioned insufficient fired power generating unit power generation space of the prior art is tied up by new energy and market clearing is electric
The shortcomings that valency is pulled low, the present invention provide a kind of fired power generating unit price quoting method and device based on new energy power prediction, first really
Determine the prediction generated output of new energy, the prediction generated energy of new energy is then calculated according to the prediction generated output of new energy, most
Afterwards when whether the prediction generated energy of new energy is more than or equal to the preset ratio of new energy rated generation amount, according to fired power generating unit
The coal consumption that operation coal consumption and the machine cost of opening convert into determines the quotation of fired power generating unit, is based ultimately upon new energy power prediction and realizes thermoelectricity
The quotation of unit.
In order to realize foregoing invention purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that：
The present invention provides a kind of fired power generating unit price quoting method based on new energy power prediction, including：
Determine the prediction generated output of new energy；
The prediction generated energy of new energy is calculated according to the prediction generated output of new energy；
When whether the prediction generated energy of new energy is more than or equal to the preset ratio of new energy rated generation amount, according to thermoelectricity
The coal consumption that the operation coal consumption of unit and the machine cost of opening convert into determines the quotation of fired power generating unit.
The prediction generated output of the definite new energy includes：
New forms of energy resource situation is predicted based on numerical weather forecast；
The prediction generated output of new energy is determined according to new forms of energy resource situation.
The prediction generated energy of the new energy is calculated as follows：
Wherein, QforecastRepresent the prediction generated energy of new energy, PI, forecastRepresent the prediction power generation work(of i moment new energy
Rate, m represent time points, and Δ T represents time interval, and unit is minute.
The new energy rated generation amount is calculated as follows：
Qrated=T*Prated
Wherein, QratedRepresent new energy rated generation amount, PratedRepresenting new energy installed capacity, T represents time span,
Unit is hour.
The coal consumption converted into according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening determines the bid mode of fired power generating unit,
Including：
The operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit is calculated as follows：
Wherein, c1Represent the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit, Pi,jRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit in the output at i moment, ηi,jTable
Showing coa consumption rate of the jth platform fired power generating unit at the i moment, n represents the total number of units of fired power generating unit, and m represents time points,
Fired power generating unit is calculated as follows and opens the coal consumption that machine cost converts into：
Wherein, c2Represent the coal consumption that fired power generating unit start-up and shut-down costs convert into, mjRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit opens machine number,
cqjRepresent that jth platform fired power generating unit single opens the coal consumption that machine cost converts into；
Judge c1Whether c is less than or equal to2, if so, fired power generating unit zero is offered or negative quotation, otherwise fired power generating unit is shut down, and is not joined
With quotation.
It offers device the present invention also provides a kind of fired power generating unit based on new energy power prediction, including：
Determining module, for determining the prediction generated output of new energy；
Computing module, for calculating the prediction generated energy of new energy according to the prediction generated output of new energy；
Quote module, for being more than or equal to the preset ratio of new energy rated generation amount in the prediction generated energy of new energy
When, the coal consumption converted into according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening determines the quotation of fired power generating unit.
The determining module includes：
First determination unit, for being based on numerical weather forecast prediction new forms of energy resource situation；
Second determination unit, for determining the prediction generated output of new energy according to new forms of energy resource situation.
The computing module is used to be calculated as follows the prediction generated energy of new energy：
Wherein, QforecastRepresent the prediction generated energy of new energy, PI, forecastRepresent the prediction power generation work(of i moment new energy
Rate, m represent time points, and Δ T represents time interval, and unit is minute；
The computing module is further used for that new energy rated generation amount is calculated as follows：
Qrated=T*Prated
Wherein, QratedRepresent new energy rated generation amount, PratedRepresenting new energy installed capacity, T represents time span,
Unit is hour.
The quote module, including：
First computing unit, for the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit to be calculated as follows：
Wherein, c1Represent the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit, Pi,jRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit in the output at i moment, ηi,jTable
Showing coa consumption rate of the jth platform fired power generating unit at the i moment, n represents the total number of units of fired power generating unit, and m represents time points,
Second computing unit, for the coal consumption that fired power generating unit opens machine cost and converts into be calculated as follows：
Wherein, c2Represent the coal consumption that fired power generating unit start-up and shut-down costs convert into, mjRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit opens machine number,
cqjRepresent that jth platform fired power generating unit single opens the coal consumption that machine cost converts into；
Judging unit, for judging c1Whether c is less than or equal to2；
Quotation unit, in c1Less than or equal to c2When determine that fired power generating unit zero is offered or negative quotation, in c1More than c2Time control
Fired power generating unit processed is shut down, and is not involved in offering.
Compared with the immediate prior art, technical solution provided by the invention has the advantages that：
In fired power generating unit price quoting method provided by the invention based on new energy power prediction, the prediction of new energy is first determined
Then generated output calculates the prediction generated energy of new energy according to the prediction generated output of new energy, finally pre- when new energy
When whether survey generated energy is more than or equal to the preset ratio of new energy rated generation amount, according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and machine is opened
The coal consumption that cost converts into determines the quotation of fired power generating unit, finally on the basis of the fluctuation of new energy output is considered, based on new
Energy power prediction realizes the quotation of fired power generating unit；
Fired power generating unit quotation device provided by the invention based on new energy power prediction includes determining module, computing module
And quote module, determining module are used to determine the prediction generated output of new energy, computing module is used for the prediction according to new energy
Generated output calculates the prediction generated energy of new energy；Quote module, for being more than or equal to new energy in the prediction generated energy of new energy
During the preset ratio of source rated generation amount, thermal motor is determined according to the coal consumption that the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening convert into
Finally on the basis of the fluctuation of new energy output is considered, fired power generating unit is realized based on new energy power prediction for the quotation of group
Quotation；
The machine cost that opens of fired power generating unit is unified dimension by technical solution provided by the invention with operation coal consumption, then by the two
Intuitively comparing is carried out, the prediction generated output of comparative result combination new energy helps to instruct the bid mode of fired power generating unit, really
It protects the fired power generating unit on the premise of preferentially consumption new energy and obtains higher income；
Technical solution provided by the invention not only allows for itself coal consumption and the operating cost of fired power generating unit, it is also contemplated that this
The fluctuation that new energy is contributed in region avoids fired power generating unit power generation space from being tied up by new energy, and market clearing price is carried
Height is conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of electricity market.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the fired power generating unit price quoting method flow chart based on new energy power prediction in the embodiment of the present invention 1.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Embodiment 1
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of fired power generating unit price quoting method based on new energy power prediction, the fired power generating unit report
The particular flow sheet of valency method is as shown in Figure 1, detailed process is as follows：
S101：Determine the prediction generated output of new energy；
S102：The prediction generated energy of new energy is calculated according to the prediction generated output of new energy；
S103：When the preset ratio whether the prediction generated energy of new energy is more than or equal to new energy rated generation amount is (desirable
50%) when, the coal consumption converted into according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening determines the quotation of fired power generating unit.
It, can be according to fired power generating unit when the prediction generated energy of new energy is less than the preset ratio of new energy rated generation amount
Continuous service situation use well known to a person skilled in the art the quotation that the prior art determines fired power generating unit, for example can protect
On the premise of card profit, the quotation of fired power generating unit is determined by actual power generation and cost.
In above-mentioned S101, the prediction generated output of new energy is determined by following processes：
New forms of energy resource situation is predicted based on numerical weather forecast, detailed process is as follows：
Wherein numerical weather forecast refers to according to air actual conditions, under certain initial value and boundary value condition, by big
Type computer makees numerical computations, solves the hydrodynamics for describing weather modification process and thermodynamic (al) equation group, prediction future one
The method of the air motion state and weather phenomenon of timing section.Intensity of illumination, wind speed, wind are first obtained based on numerical weather forecast
To Element forecasts such as, air pressure, temperature, new energy money is predicted according to Element forecasts such as intensity of illumination, wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, temperature
Source situation；
The prediction generated output of new energy is determined according to new forms of energy resource situation, detailed process is as follows：
Based on new forms of energy resource situation and new energy station affiliated area climate characteristic and historical data situation, use
The combination of statistical method and physics and statistics determines the prediction generated output of new energy.
In above-mentioned S102, the prediction generated energy of new energy is calculated as follows：
Wherein, QforecastRepresent the prediction generated energy of new energy, PI, forecastRepresent the prediction power generation work(of i moment new energy
Rate, m represent time points, and Δ T represents time interval, and unit is minute.
New energy rated generation amount is calculated as follows：
Qrated=T*Prated
Wherein, QratedRepresent new energy rated generation amount, PratedRepresenting new energy installed capacity, T represents time span,
Unit is hour.
In above-mentioned S103, the coal consumption converted into according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening determines the report of fired power generating unit
The detailed process of valency mode is as follows：
1st, the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit is calculated as follows：
Wherein, c1Represent the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit, Pi,jRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit in the output at i moment, ηi,jTable
Showing coa consumption rate of the jth platform fired power generating unit at the i moment, n represents the total number of units of fired power generating unit, and m represents time points,
2nd, fired power generating unit is calculated as follows and opens the coal consumption that machine cost converts into：
Wherein, c2Represent the coal consumption that fired power generating unit start-up and shut-down costs convert into, mjRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit opens machine number,
cqjRepresent that jth platform fired power generating unit single opens the coal consumption that machine cost converts into；
3rd, c is judged1Whether c is less than or equal to2, if so, fired power generating unit zero is offered or negative quotation, otherwise fired power generating unit is shut down, no
Participate in quotation.
In fired power generating unit price quoting method provided by the invention based on new energy power prediction, the prediction of new energy is first determined
Then generated output calculates the prediction generated energy of new energy according to the prediction generated output of new energy, finally pre- when new energy
When whether survey generated energy is more than or equal to the preset ratio of new energy rated generation amount, according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and machine is opened
The coal consumption that cost converts into determines the quotation of fired power generating unit, finally on the basis of the fluctuation of new energy output is considered, based on new
Energy power prediction realizes the quotation of fired power generating unit；Technical solution provided by the invention opens machine cost and operation by fired power generating unit
Dimension is unified in coal consumption, and the two then is carried out intuitively comparing, and the prediction generated output of comparative result combination new energy helps to refer to
Lead the bid mode of fired power generating unit, it is ensured that fired power generating unit obtains higher income on the premise of preferentially consumption new energy.
Embodiment 2
Based on same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present invention additionally provides a kind of fired power generating unit based on new energy power prediction
Quotation device, the principle that these equipment solve the problems, such as and the fired power generating unit quotation installation method phase based on new energy power prediction
Seemingly, the embodiment of the present invention, which provides the fired power generating unit quotation device based on new energy power prediction, includes determining module, computing module
And quote module, it describes in detail separately below to the function of above three module：
Determining module therein, for determining the prediction generated output of new energy；
Computing module therein, for calculating the prediction generated energy of new energy according to the prediction generated output of new energy；
Quote module therein is more than or equal to the default of new energy rated generation amount for the prediction generated energy in new energy
During ratio (desirable 50%), the coal consumption converted into according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening determines the report of fired power generating unit
Valency.
It, can be according to fired power generating unit when the prediction generated energy of new energy is less than the preset ratio of new energy rated generation amount
Continuous service situation use well known to a person skilled in the art the quotation that the prior art determines fired power generating unit, for example can protect
On the premise of card profit, the quotation of fired power generating unit is determined by actual power generation and cost.
Above-mentioned determining module includes：
1) the first determination unit, for being based on numerical weather forecast prediction new forms of energy resource situation；
2) the second determination unit, for determining the prediction generated output of new energy according to new forms of energy resource situation.
The prediction generated energy of new energy is calculated as follows in above-mentioned computing module：
Wherein, QforecastRepresent the prediction generated energy of new energy, PI, forecastRepresent the prediction power generation work(of i moment new energy
Rate, m represent time points, and Δ T represents time interval, and unit is minute；
New energy rated generation amount is further calculated as follows in above-mentioned computing module：
Qrated=T*Prated
Wherein, QratedRepresent new energy rated generation amount, PratedRepresenting new energy installed capacity, T represents time span,
Unit is hour.
Above-mentioned quote module includes：
1) the first computing unit, for the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit to be calculated as follows：
Wherein, c1Represent the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit, Pi,jRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit in the output at i moment, ηi,jTable
Showing coa consumption rate of the jth platform fired power generating unit at the i moment, n represents the total number of units of fired power generating unit, and m represents time points,
2) the second computing unit, for the coal consumption that fired power generating unit opens machine cost and converts into be calculated as follows：
Wherein, c2Represent the coal consumption that fired power generating unit start-up and shut-down costs convert into, mjRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit opens machine number,
cqjRepresent that jth platform fired power generating unit single opens the coal consumption that machine cost converts into；
3) judging unit, for judging c1Whether c is less than or equal to2；
4) quotation unit, in c1Less than or equal to c2When determine that fired power generating unit zero is offered or negative quotation, in c1More than c2When
Fired power generating unit is controlled to shut down, is not involved in offering.
Fired power generating unit quotation device provided by the invention based on new energy power prediction includes determining module, computing module
And quote module, determining module are used to determine the prediction generated output of new energy, computing module is used for the prediction according to new energy
Generated output calculates the prediction generated energy of new energy；Quote module, for being more than or equal to new energy in the prediction generated energy of new energy
During the preset ratio of source rated generation amount, thermal motor is determined according to the coal consumption that the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening convert into
Finally on the basis of the fluctuation of new energy output is considered, fired power generating unit is realized based on new energy power prediction for the quotation of group
Quotation；The machine cost that opens of fired power generating unit is unified dimension by technical solution provided by the invention with operation coal consumption, then by the two
Intuitively comparing is carried out, the prediction generated output of comparative result combination new energy helps to instruct the bid mode of fired power generating unit, really
It protects the fired power generating unit on the premise of preferentially consumption new energy and obtains higher income.
For convenience of description, each several part of apparatus described above is divided into various modules with function or unit describes respectively.
Certainly, each module or the function of unit can be realized in same or multiple softwares or hardware when implementing the application.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can be provided as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, the reality in terms of complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or combination software and hardware can be used in the application
Apply the form of example.Moreover, the computer for wherein including computer usable program code in one or more can be used in the application
The computer program production that usable storage medium is implemented on (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.)
The form of product.
The application is with reference to the flow according to the method for the embodiment of the present application, equipment (system) and computer program product
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that it can be realized by computer program instructions every first-class in flowchart and/or the block diagram
The combination of flow and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.These computer programs can be provided
The processor of all-purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices is instructed to produce
A raw machine so that the instruction performed by computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices is generated for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one flow of flow chart or one box of multiple flows and/or block diagram or multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, can guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works so that the instruction generation being stored in the computer-readable memory includes referring to
Make the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one flow of flow chart or multiple flows and/or one box of block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions can be also loaded into computer or other programmable data processing devices so that counted
Series of operation steps is performed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, so as in computer or
The instruction offer performed on other programmable devices is used to implement in one flow of flow chart or multiple flows and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
Finally it should be noted that：The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical scheme of the present invention and are not intended to be limiting thereof, institute
The those of ordinary skill in category field with reference to above-described embodiment still can to the present invention specific embodiment modify or
Equivalent substitution, these are applying for this pending hair without departing from any modification of spirit and scope of the invention or equivalent substitution
Within bright claims.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of fired power generating unit price quoting method based on new energy power prediction, which is characterized in that including：
Determine the prediction generated output of new energy；
The prediction generated energy of new energy is calculated according to the prediction generated output of new energy；
When the prediction generated energy of new energy is more than or equal to the preset ratio of new energy rated generation amount, according to the fortune of fired power generating unit
The coal consumption that row coal consumption and the machine cost of opening convert into determines the quotation of fired power generating unit.
2. the fired power generating unit price quoting method according to claim 1 based on new energy power prediction, which is characterized in that described
Determining the prediction generated output of new energy includes：
New forms of energy resource situation is predicted based on numerical weather forecast；
The prediction generated output of new energy is determined according to new forms of energy resource situation.
3. the fired power generating unit price quoting method according to claim 1 based on new energy power prediction, which is characterized in that described
The prediction generated energy of new energy is calculated as follows：
Wherein, QforecastRepresent the prediction generated energy of new energy, PI, forecastRepresent the prediction generated output of i moment new energy, m
Represent time points, Δ T represents time interval, and unit is minute.
4. the fired power generating unit price quoting method based on new energy power prediction according to claim 1 or 3, which is characterized in that
The new energy rated generation amount is calculated as follows：
Qrated=T*Prated
Wherein, QratedRepresent new energy rated generation amount, PratedRepresent new energy installed capacity, T represents time span, and unit is
Hour.
5. the fired power generating unit price quoting method according to claim 1 based on new energy power prediction, which is characterized in that described
The coal consumption converted into according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening determines the quotation of fired power generating unit, including：
The operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit is calculated as follows：
Wherein, c1Represent the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit, Pi,jRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit in the output at i moment, ηi,jRepresent jth
Coa consumption rate of the platform fired power generating unit at the i moment, n represent the total number of units of fired power generating unit, and m represents time points,
Fired power generating unit is calculated as follows and opens the coal consumption that machine cost converts into：
Wherein, c2Represent the coal consumption that fired power generating unit start-up and shut-down costs convert into, mjRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit opens machine number, cqjIt represents
Jth platform fired power generating unit single opens the coal consumption that machine cost converts into；
Judge c1Whether c is less than or equal to2, if so, fired power generating unit zero is offered or negative quotation, otherwise fired power generating unit is shut down, and is not involved in reporting
Valency.
6. a kind of fired power generating unit quotation device based on new energy power prediction, which is characterized in that including：
Determining module, for determining the prediction generated output of new energy；
Computing module, for calculating the prediction generated energy of new energy according to the prediction generated output of new energy；
Quote module, for new energy prediction generated energy be more than or equal to new energy rated generation amount preset ratio when, root
The coal consumption converted into according to the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit and the machine cost of opening determines the quotation of fired power generating unit.
7. the fired power generating unit quotation device according to claim 6 based on new energy power prediction, which is characterized in that described
Determining module includes：
First determination unit, for being based on numerical weather forecast prediction new forms of energy resource situation；
Second determination unit, for determining the prediction generated output of new energy according to new forms of energy resource situation.
8. the fired power generating unit quotation device according to claim 6 based on new energy power prediction, which is characterized in that described
Computing module is used to be calculated as follows the prediction generated energy of new energy：
Wherein, QforecastRepresent the prediction generated energy of new energy, Pi,forecastRepresent the prediction generated output of i moment new energy, m
Represent time points, Δ T represents time interval, and unit is minute.
9. the quotation device of the fired power generating unit based on new energy power prediction according to claim 6 or 8, which is characterized in that
The computing module is further used for being calculated as follows the rated generation amount of new energy：
Qrated=T*Prated
Wherein, QratedRepresent new energy rated generation amount, PratedRepresent new energy installed capacity, T represents time span, and unit is
Hour.
10. the fired power generating unit quotation device according to claim 6 based on new energy power prediction, which is characterized in that institute
Quote module is stated, including：
First computing unit, for the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit to be calculated as follows：
Wherein, c1Represent the operation coal consumption of fired power generating unit, Pi,jRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit in the output at i moment, ηi,jRepresent jth
Coa consumption rate of the platform fired power generating unit at the i moment, n represent the total number of units of fired power generating unit, and m represents time points,
Second computing unit, for the coal consumption that fired power generating unit opens machine cost and converts into be calculated as follows：
Wherein, c2Represent the coal consumption that fired power generating unit start-up and shut-down costs convert into, mjRepresent jth platform fired power generating unit opens machine number, cqjIt represents
Jth platform fired power generating unit single opens the coal consumption that machine cost converts into；
Judging unit, for judging c1Whether c is less than or equal to2；
Quotation unit, in c1Less than or equal to c2When determine that fired power generating unit zero is offered or negative quotation, in c1More than c2When control fire
Electric compressor emergency shutdown is not involved in offering.
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| CN112561729A (en) * | 2020-11-19 | 2021-03-26 | 四川大学 | Method for building power generation side quotation unit under drainage basin water and electricity participation electric power spot market |
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